I suppose you've been through all of this many times, but yeah, I'm definitely on the youth side of the fence. A year and a half ago, Favre went for a 3rd round pick in one of my leagues and that DID represent his true value at the time because frankly, he sucked. He wasn't worth starting most weeks and he was old. Granted that turned out to be a steal, but now he's 38, the current season is basically over, and we don't even know for sure he's coming back next year. He's looked very good this year overall, but even at his best he's not going to give you consistently dominating performances. What is the POSSIBILITY of one or MAX two years at mid-grade starter worth? Not much to me relative to the possibility of 10-15 years of starter material. Would you be shocked if Favre hung it up at the end of this year? I wouldn't. Would you be shocked if he plays next year and looks more like 2005/2006 Favre than 2007 Favre? I wouldn't. Would you be surprised at any point to see Favre finally NOT just shake off one of those vicious hits? Honestly, with the abuse he's taken over the years it's a miracle he suits up at all and seriously: God bless him for it. But it won't last forever, and I don't think it will last long.
Favre didn't suck. I said it then, and I'll say it now: some people can't look at a situation and understand his production is going to be drastically different in a rebuilding process with a poor line and pedestrian receiving options than it will be with talented receivers and a solid line. I play 17 weeks, and for most people the most important weeks are coming up now. As a legit top tier starter (he's 7th in
total points amongst all positions in both of my leauges), he still has a lot of value for owners who are doing what they're supposed to be doing in dynasty leagues: gunning for a championship.
Yes, I would be shocked if Favre hung it up at the end of the year. Yes, I would be shocked if Favre played next year and looked more like 2006 Favre than 2007 Favre. Yes, I would be very surprised to see Favre go down with a season-ending injury considering he's the most durable player in the history of the game. I don't deal in miracles.
I don't think John Beck has anywhere close to 10-15 years of starter material, so I'm not going to rank him that way. If you're expecting a development curve with him, I think you're on thin ice. At 26 years old, he's on Weinke's heels -- meaning there's a good chance he's already done all the developing he's going to do. He may be as good now as he's ever going to be.
What was Derek Anderson worth early this year (remember when he played for terrible team and was tossing up INTs left and right? Sound familiar?) What was Romo worth a couple of years ago? Garrard? Shaub? Were any of those guys "clearly not special" at any point? I bet they were. But they were young, got their chance, and went off. Most don't, some do.
On the other hand, where was McNair on your list at the beginning of 2006? How bout Green? Plummer? Solid starters, putting up nice points and helping their teams right? Worth more than any young pup who didn't look "special" in his first 3 games? Where was Kitna at the beginning of THIS year? What tier?
Again, I don't KNOW Beck will do ANYTHING in the NFL. But he could, and to judge him on his first couple of games in ridiculously difficult circumstances is shortsighted. He's not going to play Pittsburgh and Philly every week, Ginn WILL improve, Brown WILL be back, and Miami at least should get him some playmakers this year - their defense is fine. It does not take long in the NFL for teams to change significantly their ability to produce fantasy points for a variety of reasons. And if it takes TWO years instead of one? OK, I've got a better starter anyway for now - that's why it's a DYNASTY.
Oh, so you're the one in the league with 75-man rosters? How else can you carry all the non-special 2nd string, 3rd string and practice squadders that maybe, couldbe, hopeso, cross-your-fingers, end up as Tony Romo or Derek Anderson some day? There are so many candidates that you would have to collect them to give yourself a chance to hit the lottery. Where were McNair, Green, or Plummer at the start of the season? Right about where Grossman is now. That threesome is nowhere near Brett Favre. They weren't solid starters, they weren't putting up points, and they were helping their teams lose. That's worse than worthless, and the exact opposite of Favre. Favre is a solid starter, he is putting up points, and he's helping his fantasy teams win. Do you understand the difference? The
only thing they have in common with Favre in dynasty leagues is veteran status.
I had Kitna too high. I admit that. I explained the reasons for it. I saw a two year window with Martz' passing offense, two dominantly talented WRs, and two above average slot receivers. I thought two seasons of 4000 yards + 25 TDs was a good possibility. I gave the Lions too much credit, I didn't anticipate Calvin Johnson's season-long back issues, and I was wrong. Yet I'd still take what's left of Jon Kitna over the next couple of seasons than John Beck.
The reason it's a DYNASTY is for your team to win year-in and year-out. It's not called a DYNASTY because you get credit for having a youthful roster full of prospects. The idea is to win.