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Dynasty Rankings (9 Viewers)

Vince Young won games. Michael Vick won games. Why do we, after the fact, decide to apply hindsite to their situations and not include them in your W/L argument?
That's a valid point. I do think Vince was instrumental in helping Tennessee win at a healthy rate, and the fact he is out of the league now is a strong counterexample. Vince was also mentally unstable, and you don't follow any strategy blindly. I mentioned Cassel last night also. At some point you look past just a record sheet and have to have a feel for the impact the QB had on the game. Cassel did not make NE or KC have good years the same way Young or Flacco have, IMO.
Would you take Flacco over Newton? RG3? Stafford?
Of course not. Simple rule not applied simply. I would not give up Rodgers for any of the 3, even if significant parts were added to the other side. I would trade guys like Locker, Tannehill, and Dalton for Flacco. I think those are trades that go down in a lot of leagues. Those 3 could all become as good an NFL QB as Flacco but right now it's risk. Flacco has much less risk than Locker, and I think the perceived advantage in upside is a mirage (it is neutral, does not favor Locker).
 
If the rookie sample on Luck doesn't show you why he's got #1 QB potential I don't know what else to say to convince you. He has no running game and a weak line and has no hesitations with successfully going downfield, not dinking and dunking. He also has a nose for the red zone when the field compresses, he's not a statue like Manning and Brady - guy's athletic as hell. Take away his throws and he'll run for scores. He plays like a seasoned vet, not a rookie. This may be the next Aaron Rodgers right in front of us except he has the benefit of playing at least 8 games/year indoors.
I don't know where you got that anyone suggested Luck doesn't have QB1 potential. I question why you look at W/L, when the Colts have had a much easier schedule and one impressive win on the season. The Colts are likely 3-6 as well, playing the same schedule as RG3's Redskins, who have been in every game but one.
 
Vince Young won games. Michael Vick won games. Why do we, after the fact, decide to apply hindsite to their situations and not include them in your W/L argument?
That's a valid point. I do think Vince was instrumental in helping Tennessee win at a healthy rate, and the fact he is out of the league now is a strong counterexample. Vince was also mentally unstable, and you don't follow any strategy blindly. I mentioned Cassel last night also. At some point you look past just a record sheet and have to have a feel for the impact the QB had on the game. Cassel did not make NE or KC have good years the same way Young or Flacco have, IMO.
Would you take Flacco over Newton? RG3? Stafford?
Of course not. Simple rule not applied simply. I would not give up Rodgers for any of the 3, even if significant parts were added to the other side. I would trade guys like Locker, Tannehill, and Dalton for Flacco. I think those are trades that go down in a lot of leagues. Those 3 could all become as good an NFL QB as Flacco but right now it's risk. Flacco has much less risk than Locker, and I think the perceived advantage in upside is a mirage (it is neutral, does not favor Locker).
In that context - fair play. I still think it's too early to look at the W/L record of guys like Newton, RG3, and Luck. What value does trading guys like Locker, Tannehill, and Dalton for Flacco have? I would gladly take all 3 over Flacco. QB2s have next to no value, post-hype, in my leagues. Once your future as a top 8-10 guy looks to have died, there is little incentive to invest. You can always pick up guys like Palmer and get by at QB2; might as well have upside at the position.Now, they could all fail to produce VBD, as Flacco has, but I've lost nothing in the process. If you think Flacco starts turning top 8 seasons, I think you have a point. But I simly don't.
 
Who are you guys looking to add this year, either from the wire, or for cheap, that could have value next season?
BuyingBen Tate Turbin Pead or L James - if the price is rightHelu - who is the coach there again, oh rightWells - if the guy is ready to just give up on himJoique Bell - don't trust anyone in Detroit but think he's the Ivory to Leshoure's Ingram but with pprDan Thomas - not high on him, but I think Miller takes a long time to developSelling Brown - I love my mule rbs, but he seems like a handcuff, ###### this hobby if Wilson doesn't get carries next yearIvory - pipe dreamRashad Jennings - old and mediocre, rich man's Redman
 
Brown - I love my mule rbs, but he seems like a handcuff, ###### this hobby if Wilson doesn't get carries next year
He's looked really good to me. And I am a Bradshaw/Wilson owner, with no Brown. Wilson will get a shot, but in what role? Brown is simply a cheap lottery ticket to replace Bradshaw as the lead guy. Both parties of a Brown/Wilson combination have value, if fruition occurs next season.
 
Interesting thought from another thread:

ADP vs. Megatron in a non-PPR league. Who do you got?

I am taking ADP, right now. Standard formats can't be measured fairly in blanket VBD - RBs have to get a bump based on rarity of consistant producers. I am comfortable in counting on 3 more years from ADP, and at this rate, even if Calvin puts up top 5 numbers ever year, it would take him twice as long to catch up in the VBD department; your return on investment is 4+ years away, in the way of a 31-32 YO WR.

 
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If the rookie sample on Luck doesn't show you why he's got #1 QB potential I don't know what else to say to convince you. He has no running game and a weak line and has no hesitations with successfully going downfield, not dinking and dunking. He also has a nose for the red zone when the field compresses, he's not a statue like Manning and Brady - guy's athletic as hell. Take away his throws and he'll run for scores. He plays like a seasoned vet, not a rookie. This may be the next Aaron Rodgers right in front of us except he has the benefit of playing at least 8 games/year indoors.
I don't know where you got that anyone suggested Luck doesn't have QB1 potential. I question why you look at W/L, when the Colts have had a much easier schedule and one impressive win on the season. The Colts are likely 3-6 as well, playing the same schedule as RG3's Redskins, who have been in every game but one.
If's and but's, they have played and beaten the teams on their schedule and Luck has looked dangerously good in the process. The only possible negative I have about Luck's first nine games is he may take too many chances, could lead to a sophomore slump if he doesn't adjust in the offseason. That's it though, anything else is over analysis imho.
 
Interesting thought from another thread:ADP vs. Megatron in a non-PPR league. Who do you got? I am taking ADP, right now. Standard formats can't be measured fairly in blanket VBD - RBs have to get a bump based on rarity of consistant producers. I am comfortable in counting on 3 more years from ADP, and at this rate, even if Calvin puts up top 5 numbers ever year, it would take him twice as long to catch up in the VBD department; your return on investment is 4+ years away, in the way of a 31-32 YO WR.
Can't answer that, entirely depends on team makeup. Generally speaking, if I had either of them I wouldn't consider trading. However, if I had Calvin and were stacked at WR but thin at RB I'd pitch the AD owner an offer, if I were stacked at RB but thin at WR and had AD I'd pitch the Calvin owner an offer. THAT said, if I were out of contention I would just wait until the offseason regardless of team makeup to make sure both of them finish the season in one piece.
 
If's and but's, they have played and beaten the teams on their schedule and Luck has looked dangerously good in the process. The only possible negative I have about Luck's first nine games is he may take too many chances, could lead to a sophomore slump if he doesn't adjust in the offseason. That's it though, anything else is over analysis imho.
Ifs and buts are projection; projecting is vital. IF we are going to bring W/Ls into the conversation (again, they are too young for me to do it), then we need to look deeper. Looking at a blanket stat like W/L is not wise, in my opinion. Not in such a small sample size. Over the last 7 games, they will likely finish below .500. Can we at least let the season play out?
 
If's and but's, they have played and beaten the teams on their schedule and Luck has looked dangerously good in the process. The only possible negative I have about Luck's first nine games is he may take too many chances, could lead to a sophomore slump if he doesn't adjust in the offseason. That's it though, anything else is over analysis imho.
Ifs and buts are projection; projecting is vital. IF we are going to bring W/Ls into the conversation (again, they are too young for me to do it), then we need to look deeper. Looking at a blanket stat like W/L is not wise, in my opinion. Not in such a small sample size. Over the last 7 games, they will likely finish below .500. Can we at least let the season play out?
Wins and losses are a slippery slope, they're meaningful in some cases as far as future projections are concerned but not in all. If the Colts end up 8-8 Andrew Luck will still be the starter next year and the year after. Same goes for the Dolphins and Redskins. Wins and losses become more important for a QB in future years. i.e. if Carolina's season continues down this path it's possible Cam only has one more for certain year there. A 6-8 win season and he will get 4 years minimum, but such a large step back makes his job security more volatile. 2013 becomes a lot more important if the Panthers finish 3-13. To put a vet spin on it Rivers is on thin ice too, Norv is good as gone but what other changes are on the way? I don't think Rivers gets the boot, but I do think a 6-10 finish gets another arm in there to push him under new leadership. His job security gets more volatile.Now, if all of the Skins, Colts, and Fins end up 8-8 and follow that up with a 4-12 campaign those QB's become a lot more volatile, especially if their performance steps back too. That needs to happen first though. Their W-L record in 2012 means much less than others.

 
Who are you guys looking to add this year, either from the wire, or for cheap, that could have value next season? Looking for Ridleys, Fosters, Torreys, etcetera.A few names to throw around:-Andre Brown-Isaiah Pead-Shane Vereen-Rashad Jennings-Ben Tate-Kendall Hunter-Chris IvoryETA: Guys like Wilson and Ingram are also big targets. But I don't know how "low" I could buy them for.
I don't know if he's available, but I picked up Daryl Richardson a couple weeks ago. I watched some film on the guy, and while he's regarded as being small, his looks a lot bigger than his measurables.
 
I think you're misinterpreting what he is saying. What I take from it is that QBs that win games remain employed and will/can grow into putting up numbers while QBs that don't help their NFL team win are more in jeopardy of eventually losing thier job (even if they are putting up stats that help your fantasy team win games).All of that is true - although it's really not all that useful in that no one really knows if Carolina will start winning games or that Baltimore would be a winning team year in and year out when Flacco was just getting started.
It is useful in identifying players that are undervalued (due to low VBD to date) or overvalued (due to future risk). I'm arguing Flacco is still undervalued now because he's a QB2 in fantasy but better in real life. I'm arguing Ryan was undervalued before this year and Eli was undervalued before last year. If a QB has a positive effect on a team winning games, there's probably something there that will develop. If a QB doesn't seem to have a positive effect on a team winning games, there is much more risk. The Panthers could be 8-17 with a replacement-level player like Matt Moore at QB. The Redskins started last year 3-7 with Rex Grossman and John Beck. This is also part of the story of Daunte Culpepper. He did tear ligaments in his knee, but what happened? Brad Johnson came in and the team did better. During Daunte's dream season when he had 4700 yards, the team was 8-8. Daunte was a good NFL QB (worse than Peyton, Brady, and even McNabb, but better than many), but if the choice is between an elite NFL QB and a good NFL QB, you take the elite one even if the fantasy stats lag behind. Another example is Tom Brady; he has had several dips in value over the past 10 years where he could have been bought for a much worse QB, even some already out of the league. When he got hurt, when Moss left, when he started 2010 slow. I understand swinging for the fences, but QB is one position where going large cap rarely hurts you. If its large cap, any dip in value is temporary. I bring this up because it applies to the discussion on Luck vs. RG3 to some degree. If someone who values RG3 higher admits that Luck will do a better job winning games now and in the future, it seems counterintuitive to me.
Maybe I'm not reading you correctly, but are you implying that pocket passers are going to do more to help their team win games than "running" QBs - seems so based on your examples. Maybe that's just coincidence though.Guys like Donovan McNabb and Steve McNair were able to hold starting jobs for a long period of time and their team's won consistently.I'm sorry to imply what you were saying wasn't useful, but I guess I'm still having trouble seeing how its valuable without the use of hindsight. I don't see how we "know" that Carolina or Washington cannot become consistent winners with Cam or RGIII leading the way. I'm not saying that they will, but I certainly wouldn't say that they can't either.Let's look at Joe Flacco - even in what is his best season so far he's not a very valuable fantasy QB. You say he wins games and therefore he'll be afforded room to grow and always have opportunity. When the Baltimore defense declines (it has started) and Ray Rice is a shell of himself - Baltimore may not win as consistently. Ironically (based on this conversation) Flacco's numbers may actually increase as a result of needing to throw due to a poor defense and lack of a running game. Is Flacco really winning games for the Ravens? I'm not saying he's a bad QB - but couldn't the Ravens have been just as good over these last couple of seasons with a Matt Moore, Matt Shaub, Sam Bradford, Alex Smith or other marginal talent at QB?
 
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If the rookie sample on Luck doesn't show you why he's got #1 QB potential I don't know what else to say to convince you. He has no running game and a weak line and has no hesitations with successfully going downfield, not dinking and dunking. He also has a nose for the red zone when the field compresses, he's not a statue like Manning and Brady - guy's athletic as hell. Take away his throws and he'll run for scores. He plays like a seasoned vet, not a rookie. This may be the next Aaron Rodgers right in front of us except he has the benefit of playing at least 8 games/year indoors.
I don't know where you got that anyone suggested Luck doesn't have QB1 potential. I question why you look at W/L, when the Colts have had a much easier schedule and one impressive win on the season. The Colts are likely 3-6 as well, playing the same schedule as RG3's Redskins, who have been in every game but one.
If's and but's, they have played and beaten the teams on their schedule and Luck has looked dangerously good in the process. The only possible negative I have about Luck's first nine games is he may take too many chances, could lead to a sophomore slump if he doesn't adjust in the offseason. That's it though, anything else is over analysis imho.
You're arguing against something that Coop really never argued for.
 
What do you think about A.J. Jenkins in SF? Any homers have any insight? Is he a buy? Sell? I've got an offer to get him and trying to gauge his prospects? I know he hasn't seen the field since early in the season and he was a raw prospect and wonder how things are progressing for him.

 
'Concept Coop said:
I'm curious your thoughts about Braxton Miller.
I haven't watched much OSU this year, to be honest. He is a very good athlete and a play-maker. I'd have to agree that he is a better runner than the others on the list. Maziel is up there, though. As far as NFL potential, I'd like to hear what others who have seen more think.
I do like Manziel and he's a better passer at this point. But Braxton is elite as a runner and I haven't seen that from Manziel. Braxton's passing gets better seemingly on a game by game basis, but I'm still not sure how much better it will get over the next 2+ years and I'm not sure how it'll translate to the NFL. I think the intriguing thing with him is that he is (in my opinion) significantly better as a pure runner than guys like Cam, RG3, etc. He's really shifty and has a thick RB type of build. Here's a highlight video from the first 6 games of this season:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxsAiCo7Om0&feature=relatedMost are him running, but also a few of his nice deep throws. Maybe not great for scouting purposes, but at the very least, its a fun video to watch.
 
An interesting guy to keep an eye on for dynasty purposes is Mohammed Sanu. He looked really good against the Giants with his first extended playing time (he was 3rd in snaps amongst skill position guys behind only AJ and Gresham). It seems as though he hadn't received much PT because he doesn't really stand out in practice. But the coaches have mentioned that when he is in the game he just shows up and makes plays.

I had been skeptical of his chances of having any real fantasy value due to the Bengals offense. It seemed like it would be a run first offense with Green getting a ton of targets in the passing game, with Gresham 2nd in the pecking order and the rest of the targets spread out between a bunch of other guys. However, the Bengals running game has been awful and they are throwing it around more than expected (19 passing TDs already). Plus, Gresham hasn't really put it all together like the Bengals have hoped. So there is a real opening for a 2nd WR to step in and potentially put up decent fantasy numbers. The injury to Marvin Jones (who was ahead of Sanu) has opened the door.

Lastly, it was probably just a one time thing, but the Bengals used Sanu as a RB for one play on Sunday and he got the carry, ran it tough up inside and picked up the 1st down. With the Bengals struggles at RB, there is a small chance that Sanu gets some more snaps in the backfield like Randall Cobb. If that was to happen, he'd really become a guy to watch.

 
Miller's problem is that he's a RB with an arm, not a QB.

Manziel is good and might have a starting future in the NFL, but it's gonna get nauseating hearing the "Johnny Football" hype 24/7 on ESPN for the next 2.5 college seasons.

 
What do you think about A.J. Jenkins in SF? Any homers have any insight? Is he a buy? Sell? I've got an offer to get him and trying to gauge his prospects? I know he hasn't seen the field since early in the season and he was a raw prospect and wonder how things are progressing for him.
Way too early to tell. I think he's been a bit of a disappointment so far, but first year WRs can be awful than break out once it "clicks." Not worth investing much but a decent stash if you have roster room.
 
Who are you guys looking to add this year, either from the wire, or for cheap, that could have value next season? Looking for Ridleys, Fosters, Torreys, etcetera.A few names to throw around:-Andre Brown-Isaiah Pead-Shane Vereen-Rashad Jennings-Ben Tate-Kendall Hunter-Chris IvoryETA: Guys like Wilson and Ingram are also big targets. But I don't know how "low" I could buy them for.
I don't know if he's available, but I picked up Daryl Richardson a couple weeks ago. I watched some film on the guy, and while he's regarded as being small, his looks a lot bigger than his measurables.
He does play bigger than his listed weight. I don't know why people are holding out hope for Pead in the short term with Richardson entrenched ahead of him. I do think Pead could be worth a 3rd-4th round rookie pick just in case he gets a shot sometime down the road, but you can't ignore 3 months of solid data suggesting that St. Louis prefers Richardson. I've said it before, but if Richardson was having an identical season as a 2nd round pick and not a 7th round pick, his price would be a lot higher.
 
Manziel is good and might have a starting future in the NFL, but it's gonna get nauseating hearing the "Johnny Football" hype 24/7 on ESPN for the next 2.5 college seasons.
MIGHT?! That is wild to me. The guy is one of the better players in all of college football as a freshman. Did you see the pass he threw on the sidelines against Bama in the 4th? I re-watched it at least 10 times. You can't throw a football better than that. He has "it" too. The kid knew he could go into Tuscaloosa and beat the defending champs on their field. That "it" makes teammates better, making teammates better leads to wins. I am sounding like the ESPN Hype Train, myself, but I'm buying it. I have been since A&M ran up and down the field on my Gators in the first half.

Something about the kid is appealing to me, as a personality. There was nothing not to like about Luck, but I got sick of hearing about him. But I'm eating this Johnny Football hype up. More please!

 
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Who are you guys looking to add this year, either from the wire, or for cheap, that could have value next season? Looking for Ridleys, Fosters, Torreys, etcetera.A few names to throw around:-Andre Brown-Isaiah Pead-Shane Vereen-Rashad Jennings-Ben Tate-Kendall Hunter-Chris IvoryETA: Guys like Wilson and Ingram are also big targets. But I don't know how "low" I could buy them for.
I don't know if he's available, but I picked up Daryl Richardson a couple weeks ago. I watched some film on the guy, and while he's regarded as being small, his looks a lot bigger than his measurables.
He does play bigger than his listed weight. I don't know why people are holding out hope for Pead in the short term with Richardson entrenched ahead of him. I do think Pead could be worth a 3rd-4th round rookie pick just in case he gets a shot sometime down the road, but you can't ignore 3 months of solid data suggesting that St. Louis prefers Richardson. I've said it before, but if Richardson was having an identical season as a 2nd round pick and not a 7th round pick, his price would be a lot higher.
I don't mean to hype the guy, but he looks a little like Marurice Jones Drew just in terms of his build.
 
I do think Pead could be worth a 3rd-4th round rookie pick just in case he gets a shot sometime down the road, but you can't ignore 3 months of solid data suggesting that St. Louis prefers Richardson. I've said it before, but if Richardson was having an identical season as a 2nd round pick and not a 7th round pick, his price would be a lot higher.
You are a big advocate for waiting on talent, and talent always winning out. Odd to hear this from you. Not that it's right or wrong. But if Pead was worth a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick, why would situation cancel that out? Especially when situation isn't a sure starter or star.
 
On the RB front - here are some I've either bought already, or am looking to buy...

Stewart - lord help me, I still believe. As a Carolina fan, they're going to shake up everything with the new GM, and given the talent, the cap situation with DW, a new GM focusing exclusively on maximizing the talent on the roster, etc... I still believe he'll get feature-back duties next year.

Ivory - We're seeing the talent explode on the scene when he's given the opportunities. He looks better to me this year than he did before his Lisfranc injury, and that run against ATL was beautiful. Plus, consider the Saints salary cap situation. From Peter King's MMQB yesterday:

Cap numbers, of course, can and will change. But as of today, the Saints are in major trouble if they're going to use any avenue except the fixed-cost NFL Draft to repair their defense in 2013. The 15 heaviest contracts the Saints have, as of this morning, take up 87 percent of their 2013 salary cap. The NFL is scheduled to have a cap number of about $121 million per team next year, though that varies from team to team depending on cap credits and money carried over from the previous season.

Think of that: The Saints have 28 percent of their 53-man roster taking up 87 percent of the cap room. And they'll be at least $25 million over the $121 million cap at the start of the free-agency period.
Ivory is a RFA at the end of this year. If he keeps up this level of play, I can't imagine some team not looking to give him a shot at a starting job. And I don't think the Saints can afford to keep him.Morris - depends on the situation of the owner in your league, but people aren't sold on him as a dynasty asset. His production this year speaks for itself... he's a beast between the tackles, and does everything Shanahan wants him to do. I personally don't see that changing heading into next season, barring injury. And to me, he's shown enough blocking prowess and decent enough hands to eventually work himself into an occassional 3rd down situation, and end up with 20-30 catches annually, only being replaced in obvious comeback mode by a passing-down specialist. Owners looking to cash in on his success may be willing to take less than he's actually worth - as mentioned a few pages ago, only a handful of top-30 RBs under 25. Morris is one of them, and I don't think he's going anywhere.

Lamar Miller - Miller is probably pretty easy to acquire right now, and I still think the talent can be productive in the long run. He's the first RB drafted by this coaching staff, and they traded up to acquire him. Some reports suggest Bush is already on the way out; others that he definitely won't be resigned. I don't personally see Daniel Thomas as anything special. I think Miller could be.

Hillman - Gotta love the situation, and the FBG week in review from this week brought up an interesting point that I hadn't thought of before: Fox's track record with RBs. While Lammey may be WAY over the cliff with Hillman, and that bias is certainly evident in his evaluation, Hillman's produced with his opportunities to this point, and his main competition for carries is OLD. Manning's offenses produce running back points, and Hillman appears to be gaining Manning's trust as well as the coaching staff's. You can't ask for a much better situation. Plus...

Here's a list of RBs drafted by John Fox in the first 4 rounds of the draft:

2002 - DeShaun Foster - Second Round (Hit)

2005 - Eric Shelton - Second Round (HUGE miss)

2006 - DeAngelo Williams - First Round (Hit)

2008 - Jonathan Stewart - First Round (Hit)

2009 - Mike Goodson - Fourth Round (Hit)

2012 - Ronnie Hillman - Third Round (TBD)

With Carolina, Fox hit on 80% of his RB draft picks, with one giant mistake in Eric Shelton. Yes, most were first or second round picks, but 80% is still a strong rate. It was rumored in Carolina that the Panthers often let position coaches overrule the scouting department when it came to selection of players (which is absurd IMO, but that's a different rant - thank God Hurney is gone), and that's why the Panthers drafted some positions much, much better than others (RBs, LBs, O-Line). The RBs coach from Fox's tenure in Carolina is also his RBs coach in Denver, and while I doubt he had influence in the Denver draft room like he may have in Charlotte, he still has a track record of producing talent from the position.

I'm looking to acquire Hillman.
Good stuff. However, with regard to Ivory, its tough for a decent RFA to get away from his team. I believe that if the Saints offer Ivory a 1 year, $1.5m dollar offer, then any team that tried to sign him away would have to give up a 1st round pick. No team is going to do that. Will the Saints offer their 4th string RB $1.5m? Not sure, but its really not that much money at all. So he may be at least another year away from getting his shot.
 
What do you think about A.J. Jenkins in SF? Any homers have any insight? Is he a buy? Sell? I've got an offer to get him and trying to gauge his prospects? I know he hasn't seen the field since early in the season and he was a raw prospect and wonder how things are progressing for him.
I've bought him in a couple leagues for modest prices. I think he's a decent guy to take a flyer on because of his pedigree. I do think it's troubling that he's not even suiting up on gamedays. I can understand why he's not out there ahead of guys like Crabtree, Moss, and Manningham, but you'd at least hope he could beat out Kyle Williams for some snaps. The early word on Jenkins is that he was struggling in camp and was having issues with his strength/balance. If you watch his college games, he has great speed and is very quick in and out of his routes. That's what got him drafted in the first round. But...he plays a lot lighter than his listed weight of 190 pounds. He plays more like a 175 pounder. Looks very light and easy to knock around. I suspect that's why we're not seeing him. He is still trying to adjust to the pro game and I know for a fact that he's working on adding weight. San Francisco is a contender that can't really afford to burn snaps on players who aren't ready to contribute. And Harbaugh has a mixed record with young players. A lot of people might not realize that he actually redshirted Andrew Luck as a freshman in favor of an experienced, but far less talented player named Tavita Pritchard. That decision probably cost Stanford a shot at a bowl game in 2008. Harbaugh will obviously play a rookie if he's ready (Aldon Smith, Chris Culliver), but he's probably more of a Tom Coughlin type in terms of how he treats rookies, meaning he won't put them out there if he has a veteran of comparable short term ability. He has said that Jenkins will be fine, and I find that what he says usually ends up being correct, so I think it's a bit too soon to bury AJ.
 
Maybe I'm not reading you correctly, but are you implying that pocket passers are going to do more to help their team win games than "running" QBs - seems so based on your examples. Maybe that's just coincidence though.Guys like Donovan McNabb and Steve McNair were able to hold starting jobs for a long period of time and their team's won consistently.
I'll call it coincidence. Certainly rushing stats pad fantasy value which confuses which QBs are genuinely good vs. fantasy good. The more important distinction is the ability to game manage. McNabb is a QB I would want. Replacements like Garcia and Feeley were able to come in and have success but not quite as high. In that sense I would have (or should have) preferred McNabb over contemporaries with worse W-L. It doesn't really matter where the fantasy stats come from. We're quick to elevate Stafford to the top echelon, just as we were with Cutler a few years back, but a big arm also isn't enough to override whatever it is that makes Brady, Brees, Rodgers what they are. Ryan is a better QB to own than Stafford at the moment - safer and equivalent upside.
I don't see how we "know" that Carolina or Washington cannot become consistent winners with Cam or RGIII leading the way. I'm not saying that they will, but I certainly wouldn't say that they can't either.
Which is why I've said "risk" all along. I'm happy to retain optimism for Cam becoming a great NFL QB, but comparing to someone like Rodgers... there is no comparison. We know what Rodgers is.
 
I do think Pead could be worth a 3rd-4th round rookie pick just in case he gets a shot sometime down the road, but you can't ignore 3 months of solid data suggesting that St. Louis prefers Richardson. I've said it before, but if Richardson was having an identical season as a 2nd round pick and not a 7th round pick, his price would be a lot higher.
You are a big advocate for waiting on talent, and talent always winning out. Odd to hear this from you. Not that it's right or wrong. But if Pead was worth a 1st or 2nd round rookie pick, why would situation cancel that out? Especially when situation isn't a sure starter or star.
1. Richardson is more talented than Pead. That's why he's been playing ahead of him for the last three months. 2. I had Pead rated well below the consensus. He is not a special player with obvious starter tools, so the idea that he's going to end up starting for someone else someday doesn't have much traction with me. There is a fine line in dynasty FF between being too rigid and too reactive, but this sure looks like another Mike Williams/Arrelious Benn, Pierre Thomas/Antonio Pittman, or Anquan Boldin/Bryant Johnson where the lower pick just happens to be more talented than the higher pick. The early returns all favor Richardson and the early returns aren't irrelevant. If a highly-touted rookie is getting lapped by another rookie on his own team, it's hard to think he's ever going to reverse the situation. Pead is nothing but a bottom of the roster stash at this point.
 
RE: Ivory's Restricted Free Agency...

The RFA Tenders change year to year if I'm not mistaken, but for 2012, were as follows"

Right of First Refusal / Original Round - $1.26MM (wouldn't do anything for the Saints but let them match as Ivory was undrafted

Second Round - $1.927MM

First Round - $2.742MM

There's also the possibility, like in the Wes Welker situaiton, that a signing team works out a trade for the player, lowering the RFA prescribed compensation. Meaning, hypothetically, if Ivory was tendered at the Second Round level, a signing team could work out a trade for a 4th or 5th or whatever.

The risk for the Saints, already far above the cap and cash strapped, is that Ivory sticks around for another year at nearly $2MM per year. For a starting RB or a member of a 1-2 punch at RB, that's not bad. For your 4th string guy... may be a luxury they can't afford.

 
Where do you guys see Randall Cobbs value moving forward? Clearly the time to buy low has passed, but he still looks to me to be a clear buy especially in a PPR league. I've seen him compared to Harvin, is the potential there for him to be a WR1?

 
Where do you guys see Randall Cobbs value moving forward? Clearly the time to buy low has passed, but he still looks to me to be a clear buy especially in a PPR league. I've seen him compared to Harvin, is the potential there for him to be a WR1?
I don't think he is a buy low. I think you are going to have to pay top 10-12 value for him, in most cases. But I do think he is worth that. I haven't done rankings in a while, so I don't know where exactly I would place him within that range. But his value is on par with guys like Dez Bryant, in my opinion.
 
F&L took A LOT of flack for suggesting Cobb > A. Brown before it was popular to do so. Have to give him his due on this particular call.

 
Interesting thought from another thread:ADP vs. Megatron in a non-PPR league. Who do you got? I am taking ADP, right now. Standard formats can't be measured fairly in blanket VBD - RBs have to get a bump based on rarity of consistant producers. I am comfortable in counting on 3 more years from ADP, and at this rate, even if Calvin puts up top 5 numbers ever year, it would take him twice as long to catch up in the VBD department; your return on investment is 4+ years away, in the way of a 31-32 YO WR.
Since I think I might be the guy who inspired the comparison, I'll repost my thoughts over here. I'm in a 10-team dyno, and the Calvin owner has been pestering me trying to get me to trade him my ADP, Britt, and a 2013 first (mid-to-late) for Calvin. I agree with him that, in a vacuum, this represents fair value for Calvin. In fact, in a vacuum, I'd even prefer Calvin. My team does not exist in a vacuum, though. I'm loaded at receiver (Harvin and Cobb, who are the top two receivers in this format, plus Demaryius, Fitzgerald, Austin, and Britt), and while I have depth at RB (Charles is my rb3), it's not as much. Obviously, my team is a major contender (also have Brees, Rice, and Gronk), and there's no way I'd diminish my chances of winning a title right now even if it meant getting a solid long-term upgrade. Youth is awesome, but flags never age.
 
RE: Ivory's Restricted Free Agency...

The RFA Tenders change year to year if I'm not mistaken, but for 2012, were as follows"

Right of First Refusal / Original Round - $1.26MM (wouldn't do anything for the Saints but let them match as Ivory was undrafted

Second Round - $1.927MM

First Round - $2.742MM

There's also the possibility, like in the Wes Welker situaiton, that a signing team works out a trade for the player, lowering the RFA prescribed compensation. Meaning, hypothetically, if Ivory was tendered at the Second Round level, a signing team could work out a trade for a 4th or 5th or whatever.

The risk for the Saints, already far above the cap and cash strapped, is that Ivory sticks around for another year at nearly $2MM per year. For a starting RB or a member of a 1-2 punch at RB, that's not bad. For your 4th string guy... may be a luxury they can't afford.
Good stuff. I grabbed the 1.5 number off of Wikipedia, so it must have been outdated. And in this case, the relatively small amount of $500,000 actually makes a big difference. If I was the Saints, I'm probably put the 2nd round # on him and try to trade him for a mid-round pick. Worst case, you are "stuck" with him at $1.9. Best case, you get a much needed pick basically for free. Definitely a guy to keep an eye on. With the Saints' RBs being pretty injury prone, it may make them less willing to trade him. But he's pretty dirt cheap in terms of a guy you could trade for and there's definitely some solid upside if he would end up with chance to start in Indy, GB, Cincy or somewhere.

 
Cobb is a nice player, but he wouldn't be producing these stats if Jennings (and Nelson) hadn't gotten injured.

I like him as a WR2 because he is a good player in a good situation, but I don't think he is one of the game's best.

 
Where do you guys see Randall Cobbs value moving forward? Clearly the time to buy low has passed, but he still looks to me to be a clear buy especially in a PPR league. I've seen him compared to Harvin, is the potential there for him to be a WR1?
I think it may depend on what happens with Greg Jennings. If he does get extended by GB, it's hard to see any of the GB WRs as a #1 fantasy WR. They'd probably all be WR2 type guys. If Jennings leaves, then Cobb definitely has WR1 type talent and situation. Plus, GB is so matchup oriented that its can be a little frustrating to own those guys. Even when Jennings was a legit top 5 or 10 fantasy WR, he'd have weeks where he'd put up a zero.My money would be on Jennings moving on as he'll want a lot of money, but GB's offense has missed him this year (in my opinion). Anyway, I'd personally value him more as a top 15 type guy as of now with the chance he moves into the top 10 if Jennings leaves and the chance he falls toward 20ish if Jennings returns. It's hard for me to put him top 10 right now since most of his production has come with Jennings out, Jordy banged up, Finley struggling and a terrible group of RBs.
 
Interesting thought from another thread:

ADP vs. Megatron in a non-PPR league. Who do you got?

I am taking ADP, right now. Standard formats can't be measured fairly in blanket VBD - RBs have to get a bump based on rarity of consistant producers. I am comfortable in counting on 3 more years from ADP, and at this rate, even if Calvin puts up top 5 numbers ever year, it would take him twice as long to catch up in the VBD department; your return on investment is 4+ years away, in the way of a 31-32 YO WR.
Since I think I might be the guy who inspired the comparison, I'll repost my thoughts over here. I'm in a 10-team dyno, and the Calvin owner has been pestering me trying to get me to trade him my ADP, Britt, and a 2013 first (mid-to-late) for Calvin. I agree with him that, in a vacuum, this represents fair value for Calvin. In fact, in a vacuum, I'd even prefer Calvin. My team does not exist in a vacuum, though. I'm loaded at receiver (Harvin and Cobb, who are the top two receivers in this format, plus Demaryius, Fitzgerald, Austin, and Britt), and while I have depth at RB (Charles is my rb3), it's not as much. Obviously, my team is a major contender (also have Brees, Rice, and Gronk), and there's no way I'd diminish my chances of winning a title right now even if it meant getting a solid long-term upgrade. Youth is awesome, but flags never age.
:goodposting: ...and it's always fun cashing the checks. :banned:
 
Who are you guys looking to add this year, either from the wire, or for cheap, that could have value next season? Looking for Ridleys, Fosters, Torreys, etcetera.A few names to throw around:-Andre Brown-Isaiah Pead-Shane Vereen-Rashad Jennings-Ben Tate-Kendall Hunter-Chris IvoryETA: Guys like Wilson and Ingram are also big targets. But I don't know how "low" I could buy them for.
Danario Alexander. He's got WR1 talent, and he's already the WR1 on the Chargers despite being on the team for less than a month; having played 90% of the snaps this past week, more than any other WR on the team. I realize he's tremendously injury prone and he's likely to get another serious injury in the coming weeks; but in the off chance that he doesn't, I think he can be a top 20 dynasty WR by the end of the year. If he's on the wire in any league I think he's most definitely worth a pickup.
 
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Antonio brown vs Randall Cobb is far from over. But it's easy to bring up while a guy is hurt. You guys are funny in this thread. One week you say one thing, the next it's another.

 
Cobb is a nice player, but he wouldn't be producing these stats if Jennings (and Nelson) hadn't gotten injured.I like him as a WR2 because he is a good player in a good situation, but I don't think he is one of the game's best.
Who said he was. Most seem to have him in the 10-15 range. Those guys getting injured gave people a glimpse of what hes capable of....top 10 numbers.
 
Cobb is a nice player, but he wouldn't be producing these stats if Jennings (and Nelson) hadn't gotten injured.I like him as a WR2 because he is a good player in a good situation, but I don't think he is one of the game's best.
Who said he was. Most seem to have him in the 10-15 range. Those guys getting injured gave people a glimpse of what hes capable of....top 10 numbers.
Not "one of the game's best" is either too high a hurdle or too subjective. Are Jennings or Nelson among the game's best? He is more elite physically than Jennings ever was, with all due respect to Jennings. He has a unique role but a lot of WR do now with the increased impact of slot guys and pass game RBs. Can safely say I'd trade all the WRs from last year's draft for him. Including Gordon.
 
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Cobb is a nice player, but he wouldn't be producing these stats if Jennings (and Nelson) hadn't gotten injured.

I like him as a WR2 because he is a good player in a good situation, but I don't think he is one of the game's best.
Who said he was. Most seem to have him in the 10-15 range. Those guys getting injured gave people a glimpse of what hes capable of....top 10 numbers.
Not "one of the game's best" is either too high a hurdle or too subjective. Are Jennings or Nelson among the game's best? He is more elite physically than Jennings ever was, with all due respect to Jennings.
Jennings did better than Cobb in every single drill at the combine. He is taller, heavier, faster, jumps higher, and jumps farther. He even had a better three cone time. I don't know if Jennings ranks among the game's best, but he put together a pretty great five year stretch. I think he's underrated because he doesn't have the flashy playing style that most people associate with elite talent. Cobb is not some kind of physical specimen. He has above average speed, great initial quickness and is an instinctive player. I like his prospects in an explosive GB offense as kind of a jack-of-all-trades weapon, but he isn't an ideal outside WR and probably doesn't deserve the Harvin comparisons either. I am not down on him. I think he'd be an excellent dynasty WR2. Situation might even elevate him higher ala Hernandez/Welker. But that's as far as I'd go with him.

 
Cobb is a nice player, but he wouldn't be producing these stats if Jennings (and Nelson) hadn't gotten injured.

I like him as a WR2 because he is a good player in a good situation, but I don't think he is one of the game's best.
Who said he was. Most seem to have him in the 10-15 range. Those guys getting injured gave people a glimpse of what hes capable of....top 10 numbers.
Not "one of the game's best" is either too high a hurdle or too subjective. Are Jennings or Nelson among the game's best? He is more elite physically than Jennings ever was, with all due respect to Jennings.
Jennings did better than Cobb in every single drill at the combine. He is taller, heavier, faster, jumps higher, and jumps farther. He even had a better three cone time. I don't know if Jennings ranks among the game's best, but he put together a pretty great five year stretch. I think he's underrated because he doesn't have the flashy playing style that most people associate with elite talent. Cobb is not some kind of physical specimen. He has above average speed, great initial quickness and is an instinctive player. I like his prospects in an explosive GB offense as kind of a jack-of-all-trades weapon, but he isn't an ideal outside WR and probably doesn't deserve the Harvin comparisons either. I am not down on him. I think he'd be an excellent dynasty WR2. Situation might even elevate him higher ala Hernandez/Welker. But that's as far as I'd go with him.
In a PPR though having 22 year old Welker with Rodgers for years to come is what is drawing me to him. Its hard to argue Welker hasn't been a WR1 in PPR format for the past 5 years and I wonder if that is how we will emerge. He strikes me as one where you maybe can buy now, but shortly he'll be impossible to get out of owners hands
 
Jennings did better than Cobb in every single drill at the combine. He is taller, heavier, faster, jumps higher, and jumps farther. He even had a better three cone time. I don't know if Jennings ranks among the game's best, but he put together a pretty great five year stretch. I think he's underrated because he doesn't have the flashy playing style that most people associate with elite talent. Cobb is not some kind of physical specimen. He has above average speed, great initial quickness and is an instinctive player. I like his prospects in an explosive GB offense as kind of a jack-of-all-trades weapon, but he isn't an ideal outside WR and probably doesn't deserve the Harvin comparisons either. I am not down on him. I think he'd be an excellent dynasty WR2. Situation might even elevate him higher ala Hernandez/Welker. But that's as far as I'd go with him.
Cobb had a disapointing combine. I remember he was projected to be a 4.3 guy, and that didn't happen. But he wouldn't be the first to have elite football speed not accurately measured at the combine. He is a very gifted athlete and he is a homerun hitter in a way that Jennings isn't. His vision, balance, quickness, speed combination is near elite, and he is in a near elite situation, assuming Jennings is gone. He not being a great fit for the flanker position doesn't really come into play - GB is always in 3 WR sets. He is an elite slot option with an elite QB. Solid combination.
 
He is a very gifted athlete and he is a homerun hitter in a way that Jennings isn't.
Agree that Cobb is a guy who plays better than his combine numbers, but this is just flat out wrong. Cobb is a good catch and run guy. Jennings is a better deep threat. When Jennings first broke onto the scene there were questions about whether that was all he was. Cobb is much more of a move the chains type of player who can break big plays with his elusiveness, but not because he can flat out run by people downfield ala Jennings. Go back and look at what Jennings did in 2007. Guy has never lacked big play ability.
 
He is a very gifted athlete and he is a homerun hitter in a way that Jennings isn't.
Agree that Cobb is a guy who plays better than his combine numbers, but this is just flat out wrong. Cobb is a good catch and run guy. Jennings is a better deep threat. When Jennings first broke onto the scene there were questions about whether that was all he was. Cobb is much more of a move the chains type of player who can break big plays with his elusiveness, but not because he can flat out run by people downfield ala Jennings. Go back and look at what Jennings did in 2007. Guy has never lacked big play ability.
Fair enough. Jennings isn't quite that guy anymore, but he is a big play guy. Cobb is more electric with the ball in his hands, and in space. Jennings is the beigger deep threat, as you point out.
 
Ryan Mathews, at what point do you get out?

I really believe in the talent but their comes a point when it's just not happening for one reason or another.

 
Ryan Mathews, at what point do you get out?I really believe in the talent but their comes a point when it's just not happening for one reason or another.
Too soon, especially in an RB crop this weak. Norv is living on borrowed time. Who knows what the next coaching staff will do. More importantly, who would you get? How many RBs in the league possess both the youth and talent to match him.
 
Anyone seen Cobb traded in the last two weeks? I'm curious what he's been commanding since his recent hot streak, and I haven't seen anything useful in the dynasty trade thread.

 

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