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Does anyone here have a solid method for valuing players that takes into account their QBs age. I have a hard time properly valuing guys like Gronk, Demayius, Decker, etc. because I feel that all of them are somewhat QB dependent. Not that they will be worthless when Brady and Manning hang it up or start to decline, but I doubt their numbers will be nearly as good. Do you try to analyze the guy as if he himself is a bit older? Try to factor some potentially lean years into future projections?

When I do my career VBD, I usually do something like this:Per year producion x projected number of years above baseline. If I were adjusting for Gronk, instead of using the same VBD per year, I would do somehting like this (using 100 VBD just to keep the math simple):100,100, 100, 80, 80, 80, 80, 70 = 690instead of100 x 8 = 800It's far from perfect, as it is simply a guess how much his production will dip post-brady. But nothing we do will be perfect.
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Richardson is already ahead of Foster for me

Same.
Not surprising to hear. Everybody loves a shiny new toy. :rolleyes: I will take Foster. Equal talent, better situation.
Strongly disagree about their talent being equal and the Texans' o line struggles this year have made Foster's situation less rosy than it was before. Don't even know what Rich's situation will be like next year anyway, don't even know what sort of system the Browns are going to be running. And before you post ypc #'s from this year please go back in time, break Foster's ribs, then tell him to run the last 10 weeks of the season with them and see how he does.
If I am reading this correctly you are arguing for TRich even though his situation is uncertain, and he had durability issues in his rookie campaign. OK. To each their own. I feel very comfortable rolling with Foster and the certainty of his situation. I fully anticipate Foster to outperform TRich within next 3 year time frame. That is not to say TRich will not be productive, only I like Foster's prospects more.
A key factor for me is that at the end of that 3 year time frame, Foster will be going on 30 and likely on his last legs. Even if he had anything left, his trade value would still be close to nil. Foster's market value is already on the decline even after another stellar year. The longer he is held, the decline in value will only accelerate. On the flip side, Trent Richardson would be going on 25, in his prime with a value close to the #1 RB (if not the #1 RB). In a 3 year keeper league, this would be irrelevant. In a dynasty, all this means a lot imo. I had Richardson ahead of Foster even before the season started. A number of others did as well, but that ranking was an aggressive one given Richardson's lack of NFL experience. Now, we've seen what Richardson can do in the NFL. Broken ribs and all, Richardson was still RB8 in his rookie year (PPR) at the age of 21. Now with his rookie year under his belt, what we've seen and more importantly the age difference of 22/27 going into 2013, ranking Richardson ahead of Foster is now the conservative approach imo and Foster over Richardson the risky one.
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His main assets are that he's tall with a big wing span and a lot of strength and straight line speed. However, his game doesn't really resemble the two best TEs of the past decade (Witten and Gonzo). When you watch those guys run routes, it is like watching a receiver. They have compact strides, very fluid movement, and great agility for their height.

I don't see WR when I look at Witten, really. He is the best in the business at finding the soft spot in the zone and presenting a target. He lines up in the traditional TE spot, mostly, so he's rarely truly covered 1-on-1. He's a solid route runner, but again, mostly in the sense that he knows where to be. He's fluid enough, but so slow that doens't really mean much. He's not Aaron Hernadez fluid, for example.Can Gronk do that? Witten could be the best ever at it, so I won't suggest he'd do it as well as Witten. But I see no reason why he'd fail. He'll always be one of the better redzone threats in the NFL, something Witten never was (based on being a mismatch, at least).

Gronk is a lot goofier. Tall and strong, but not as fluid. Fast in a straight line, but not agile. Not a very smooth cutter or route runner. Just not as efficient in his movements overall. He also takes a ton of hits (a direct consequence of those last few points). Go watch his highlight reels and you'll see him running around defenders with straight line speed and breaking tackles with brute strength, but you won't see a lot of suddenness in his routes or cuts.

I feel like you're arguing the differences bewteen Gronk and Witten/Gonzo, but not telling us why Gronk's style won't last. Here are your words: "His main assets are that he's tall with a big wing span and a lot of strength and straight line speed. "What changes about the above with time and to what degree?A RB loses a step and is often replacable. But where else does that happen and how often? Gonzo is very likely to be one of the biggest, longest, strongest TEs in the NFL until he retires.

I don't think ANY TE is capable of sustaining his career averages no matter how talented, I also think he's a prime candidate for injuries and reduced effectiveness because of build and playing style.

Why not? He's doing it. And seeing as how today's TE's are often very different than the tradional definition - why does it even matter that he is called a TE? Jimmy Graham, for example, lines up as a WR more often than he does a TE. He is going out on routes as often as the WRs on the team. Again, why does it matter? Why can't Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski be measured based on how they are actually used, instead of two words used to describe the position?
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Like I said, I'm not expecting anyone to agree with my take. Gronk has been way better than I ever thought he could be, so maybe I'm just blind to his virtues. I know that I'm not really wowed by what I see on the field though. And I already made some effort to explain why I don't think he's built to last. Tall guy with no agility who takes a bunch of hits = injury risk. That's my opinion and I'm entitled to it. I'm not really interested in debating it endlessly. If you think he's a top 5 overall dynasty pick, draft him accordingly and you'll reap the rewards if you're right. I know that I tend to err towards paranoia with my high picks. If a player's red flags bother me, I'll pass on him in that range knowing that I can someone else who I feel more certain about. I don't hate Gronk, but we are talking about him as a top 10-20 player. Do I like him more than Julio Jones, Doug Martin, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Trent Richardson, Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, or even Jimmy Graham? In most formats, definitely not.

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Like I said, I'm not expecting anyone to agree with my take. Gronk has been way better than I ever thought he could be, so maybe I'm just blind to his virtues. I know that I'm not really wowed by what I see on the field though. And I already made some effort to explain why I don't think he's built to last. Tall guy with no agility who takes a bunch of hits = injury risk. That's my opinion and I'm entitled to it. I'm not really interested in debating it endlessly. If you think he's a top 5 overall dynasty pick, draft him accordingly and you'll reap the rewards if you're right. I know that I tend to err towards paranoia with my high picks. If a player's red flags bother me, I'll pass on him in that range knowing that I can someone else who I feel more certain about. I don't hate Gronk, but we are talking about him as a top 10-20 player. Do I like him more than Julio Jones, Doug Martin, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Trent Richardson, Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, or even Jimmy Graham? In most formats, definitely not.

Fair enough. I am just trying to understand your reasoning in projecting an early decline. Edited by Concept Coop
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It's as much of a hunch as anything, but I don't see him as a guy who will have Gonzo or even Witten longevity. It would be unfair to compare him to Jeremy Shockey because his numbers blow Shockey's out of the water, but purely in terms of career arc I think he'll be more like that than Gonzo. A few good years followed by decreased effectiveness as the little dings accumulate over time.

What do you base this on? TEs last as long as any skill position and are least reliant on speed. Gronk is always going to be physically imposing; his body control, hands, and freakish size isn't going anywhere.
His main assets are that he's tall with a big wing span and a lot of strength and straight line speed. However, his game doesn't really resemble the two best TEs of the past decade (Witten Gates and Gonzo). When you watch those guys run routes, it is like watching a receiver. They have compact strides, very fluid movement, and great agility for their height.

Gronk is a lot goofier. Tall and strong, but not as fluid. Fast in a straight line, but not agile. Not a very smooth cutter or route runner. Just not as efficient in his movements overall. He also takes a ton of hits (a direct consequence of those last few points). Go watch his highlight reels and you'll see him running around defenders with straight line speed and breaking tackles with brute strength, but you won't see a lot of suddenness in his routes or cuts.

I don't expect many people to agree with this analysis, but that's my take. Apart from the fact that I don't think ANY TE is capable of sustaining his career averages no matter how talented, I also think he's a prime candidate for injuries and reduced effectiveness because of build and playing style.

Minor quibble on the two best TEs of the past decade, but your point still holds.
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I know this draft is deep at WR. I'm looking at adding one of the 2012 rookie WRs (like Jenkins or Randle). Where would you all slot them in relation to this coming draft's WRs?

In an IDP dyno I drafted Jenkins 2.6 last year and would have taken Randle if Jenkins had gone. Personally, I wouldn't change how I ranked them as of right now, but I'm betting most have flip flopped or if they had Randle higher to start then the difference is wider. I'd bet Randle will cost more now and Jenkins less, Jenkins' values will be different come May though. If San Fran doesn't add a meaningful WR this offseason and lets Randy walk as expected I feel very good about Jenkins starting next year. If I didn't already have him I'd try to get him as a throw-in.
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I know this draft is deep at WR. I'm looking at adding one of the 2012 rookie WRs (like Jenkins or Randle). Where would you all slot them in relation to this coming draft's WRs?

Based on where I'd rate them, something like this seems about right:BlackmonGordonFloydAllenWheatonWrightGivensDavisHunterWilsonRandleHiltonHopkinsWoodsPattonRogersAustinBaileyJenkinsHillJefferyPattersonQuickWilliamsI'm not sure the tiers are quite right, as there's not necessarily a clear and justified gap between the 2nd and 4th groups, but it's a decent starting point for me. Bear in mind that I rate players like Wheaton and Davis well above the current average. Edited by EBF
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I know this draft is deep at WR. I'm looking at adding one of the 2012 rookie WRs (like Jenkins or Randle). Where would you all slot them in relation to this coming draft's WRs?

Based on where I'd rate them, something like this seems about right:BlackmonGordonFloydAllenWheatonWrightGivensDavisHunterWilsonRandleHiltonHopkinsWoodsPattonRogersAustinBaileyJenkinsHillJefferyPattersonQuickWilliamsI'm not sure the tiers are quite right, as there's not necessarily a clear and justified gap between the 2nd and 4th groups, but it's a decent starting point for me. Bear in mind that I rate players like Wheaton and Davis well above the current average.
Wish I could figure out the criteria because my list is a lot different. You weighted 2012 production quite a bit in some(Givens/Wright/Hilton) and took it away a ton of value from(Jeffery/Quick/Hill/Jenkins).
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I know this draft is deep at WR. I'm looking at adding one of the 2012 rookie WRs (like Jenkins or Randle). Where would you all slot them in relation to this coming draft's WRs?

Based on where I'd rate them, something like this seems about right:BlackmonGordonFloydAllenWheatonWrightGivensDavisHunterWilsonRandleHiltonHopkinsWoodsPattonRogersAustinBaileyJenkinsHillJefferyPattersonQuickWilliamsI'm not sure the tiers are quite right, as there's not necessarily a clear and justified gap between the 2nd and 4th groups, but it's a decent starting point for me. Bear in mind that I rate players like Wheaton and Davis well above the current average.
Wish I could figure out the criteria because my list is a lot different. You weighted 2012 production quite a bit in some(Givens/Wright/Hilton) and took it away a ton of value from(Jeffery/Quick/Hill/Jenkins).
I never liked Jeffery, Quick, and Hill in the first place. Don't own those guys in any of my 9-10 leagues.I have Jenkins in a couple leagues. He is a decent stash, but not much more than that for now.
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His main assets are that he's tall with a big wing span and a lot of strength and straight line speed. However, his game doesn't really resemble the two best TEs of the past decade (Witten and Gonzo). When you watch those guys run routes, it is like watching a receiver. They have compact strides, very fluid movement, and great agility for their height. Gronk is a lot goofier. Tall and strong, but not as fluid. Fast in a straight line, but not agile. Not a very smooth cutter or route runner. Just not as efficient in his movements overall. He also takes a ton of hits (a direct consequence of those last few points). Go watch his highlight reels and you'll see him running around defenders with straight line speed and breaking tackles with brute strength, but you won't see a lot of suddenness in his routes or cuts. I don't expect many people to agree with this analysis, but that's my take. Apart from the fact that I don't think ANY TE is capable of sustaining his career averages no matter how talented, I also think he's a prime candidate for injuries and reduced effectiveness because of build and playing style.

Interesting. Personally, if you gave me the word "goofy" and asked me to apply a tight end to it, Witten would be the first guy that came to mind.Maybe I'm just forgetting his younger days, but that guy looks goofy as heck running around out there nowadays.
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I know this draft is deep at WR. I'm looking at adding one of the 2012 rookie WRs (like Jenkins or Randle). Where would you all slot them in relation to this coming draft's WRs?

Based on where I'd rate them, something like this seems about right:BlackmonGordonFloydAllenWheatonWrightGivensDavisHunterWilsonRandleHiltonHopkinsWoodsPattonRogersAustinBaileyJenkinsHillJefferyPattersonQuickWilliamsI'm not sure the tiers are quite right, as there's not necessarily a clear and justified gap between the 2nd and 4th groups, but it's a decent starting point for me. Bear in mind that I rate players like Wheaton and Davis well above the current average.
Wish I could figure out the criteria because my list is a lot different. You weighted 2012 production quite a bit in some(Givens/Wright/Hilton) and took it away a ton of value from(Jeffery/Quick/Hill/Jenkins).
I never liked Jeffery, Quick, and Hill in the first place. Don't own those guys in any of my 9-10 leagues.I have Jenkins in a couple leagues. He is a decent stash, but not much more than that for now.
So this is a list is based more on who you own? Is this based on potential/FF future/NFL production/etc.For the world of me, I can't figure out how Marcus Davis could be two tiers higher than Stephen Hill(same type of player).
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So this is a list is based more on who you own? Is this based on potential/FF future/NFL production/etc.

This question always bothers me. I own players because I like them more than my competition, I would expect my team would be filled with these types.
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Interesting. Personally, if you gave me the word "goofy" and asked me to apply a tight end to it, Witten would be the first guy that came to mind.Maybe I'm just forgetting his younger days, but that guy looks goofy as heck running around out there nowadays.

IMO Witten's lost a couple big steps and is getting by on his Vulcan mind meld with Romo right now. His Y/R dropped off bigtime this year too. I think he'll hit the wall hard, and soon. Especially if Romo were to get hurt or replaced.
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IMO Witten's lost a couple big steps and is getting by on his Vulcan mind meld with Romo right now. His Y/R dropped off bigtime this year too. I think he'll hit the wall hard, and soon. Especially if Romo were to get hurt or replaced.

He's always open. Until that changes I think he's safe. He'd do great with any number of QBs. Granted, he does have a very good relationship with Romo who trusts Witten more than any other player on the roster, I'd guess.
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So this is a list is based more on who you own? Is this based on potential/FF future/NFL production/etc.For the world of me, I can't figure out how Marcus Davis could be two tiers higher than Stephen Hill(same type of player).

It is based on who I rate highly, and that's obviously going to mirror who I own. Davis is a better athlete than Hill. Not as fast, but stronger, more fluid, and more evenly-proportioned. I've said elsewhere that I think he's the best pure athlete at WR in the draft. I don't want to go overboard hyping him because I don't think he's a lock, but he has a high ceiling and could easily turn out to be one of the best talents from this class. I have watched him a few times this season and I'm not convinced that he's quite as raw as advertised. I saw him make a couple difficult catches with his hands extended from his body in the Rutgers game alone. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64QGXniylPgAnd he certainly looks the part of a big time NFL receiver streaking down the field:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehwBrdMdPDkhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsfUjDxb8ighttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6z3fbJ_vYvMIs he a can't-miss guy? No. I'd say he's about 80% of what Demaryius Thomas was coming out of Georgia Tech. I think that's enough to see him picked in the second round, well before where most pundits have him slotted. And I'd say that's fair given his risk/reward equation.
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Isn't Antonio Gates something like 3rd all time among NFL TEs in career receiving yards? I agree that if Gronk "just" has that type of career he'll be a great commodity, but projecting a HoF career for any 23 year old is a big stretch. Gronk's numbers are unsustainable over the course of an entire career and he has an alpha dog playing style that will make him a frequent visitor to the injured list. Great talent, but I'll pass in the top 10. I'd rather have one of the top RBs, QBs, or WRs even if the options are deeper at those positions. Gonzo is the best TE in history by a pretty wide margin and he only averaged 891 yards per season. I can't reasonably expect Gronk to exceed or even match that. VBD is a nice tool, but its usefulness hinges on the accuracy of a person's projections. Anyone can make a list and throw out numbers of what a player's career will be worth, but it's pretty much guaranteed that those rankings and numbers will be damn near worthless a year or two later when the whole equation has been thrown into chaos. I think it's valuable to consider longevity potential and expected performance, but FF is quite chaotic and unpredictable. The "consensus top 10" from one season will almost never look the same as it did a year from now. That doesn't mean the whole enterprise of assigning player values is pointless, but I'd suggest that it's more important to separate the frauds from the genuine superstars than it is to obsess over thin differences in VBD derived from projections that aren't wort their weight in toilet paper.

Projecting a HoF career for a 23 year old who is coming off the best three-season stretch by any TE in history- not the best three years to start a career, but the best three years by any one over any stretch- is not that much of a stretch. He's an all-pro who excelled in year one, absolutely DOMINATED in year 2, and repeated in year 3. As I said, from a strictly physical standpoint, Calvin is the only other guy who is simply physically impossible to cover. He looks like one of those Dominican kids without a birth certificate in the little league World Series. The writers were saying before camp last year that he looked like a man among boys, and that's been true of every game since then. Watching defenses trying to cover him is like watching teams try to cover Moss with a 5'9" CB in the late 90s. While you're right that the consensus top 10 changes a lot from one year to the next, the guys who I want to bet on are the guys who are in their early 20s, already are rewriting the record books, and look like a future top 10 pick playing in the MAC. As for the VBD... Don't focus on specific numbers. Nobody in the NFL, at any position, puts up numbers more standard deviations from the mean than Gronk. VBD is simply a numerical way of recognizing that fact.

How do folks rank Trent Richardson vs Arian Foster?Upside vs Top 3 production???

I'm not a Richardson fanboy (again, I'm very concerned about the possibility that the Browns turn him into Stephen Jackson- great player, but not a huge fantasy difference-maker), but give me Richardson. I'm way down on Foster- don't even have him in my top 5. I think the Houston line is showing decline, and regardless of his final numbers, Foster saw a huge decline in effectiveness. Old and on the downslope does not bode well.

If we assume the worst and RGIII misses all of 2013 season, how does that affect his value? Where would you draft him knowing that he was going to miss the entire season with reconstructive surgery?

The best time to buy a player is when he's missing a season. It's always been true. The reality is that a missed season, especially with so much career ahead of him, will not hugely impact his long-term fantasy value... But owners always discount future production and overrate present inconvenience, so you can get him for half of what he's worth. You could build quite the contender doing nothing but trading for injured players at a discount. Imagine a squad with Brady, Peterson, Charles, Demaryius, Harvin, and Nicks.
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He's an all-pro who excelled in year one, absolutely DOMINATED in year 2, and repeated in year 3. As I said, from a strictly physical standpoint, Calvin is the only other guy who is simply physically impossible to cover.

Statistically, yes. Athletically, no. I don't think he's that impressive purely as an athlete. Strong and fast. Not very nimble or agile. He's not an explosive leaper like the top WRs or even a guy like Jimmy Graham, who is quite a bit quicker and more agile. Gronk is just really tall, strong, and fast for his height. A demon in the red zone. Doesn't impress me running routes or in the open field though. I know the numbers are there and I totally get why people are high on him, but I'm not really sold that he's one of the top players in the NFL despite what his production to date says. And I think he's going to continue to get himself hurt playing the way he does, which is my bigger concern. He's shown that he can put up silly numbers with Brady in the Pats offense. That can't really be denied at this point.
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If Gio Bernard or Lacy lands in a good spot at the end of the 1st, for instance with the Falcons or Packers, or falls to the 2nd and goes to a pretty good situation like Indy or something, how highly do you guys rank them amid veteran NFL RB's? Are they talented enough to be an instant RB1 like Martin, in a good situation? Or are they just the best in a class that isn't elite at the top, and are fantasy RB2's?Basically, how much is situation going to play into your rankings this summer? Not your rookie rankings, but your startup draft rankings when you're trying to decide who you'd prefer Bernard over, who you'd prefer Lacy over, etc.I'm wondering if its worth a gamble, trading for the 1.1 now while people are talking about how weak this class is rather than getting hyped about guys as they will in a month or two, and especially after guys have landing spots. Maybe move a low-end RB1 with a name or something for the 1.1 now before people start hearing that Bernard is the next Westbrook, etc.

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I wouldn't trade for the pick unless I was sold on a particular player that I was targeting there. While it's true that someone like Bernard could rise in value dramatically if drafted by a team like Green Bay, there's also a pretty significant probability that he'll end up somewhere cloudy. So I'd only be looking to get that pick if I was sold on a player there independent of wherever he ends up. I don't like anyone in this year's class enough to make that move myself.That doesn't mean it isn't worth a feeler to see what it would cost for the 1.01. You might get a discount. I sold the 1.03 pretty cheap a little while back because of my low enthusiasm for this class. The guy who has that pick will probably be able to sell it for a higher street value in a couple months.

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Thanks for the response EBF. At this point, that guy for me is probably Gio Bernard, who has grown on me greatly. I can easily see him going late 1st or early 2nd, which would most likely place him on a team that actually has a RB need. I don't love him yet, but I can see it happening if I keep digging deeper and imagine him in a good situation haha. I'm thinking of trying to move a guy like Ryan Mathews for him. He's got enough of a pedigree, name, and history succeeding in 2011 to get it done, but isn't enough of a sure thing to make it a crazy deal on my part. If I love someone I'd be going all in though. Last year I traded Forte and Lloyd for the 1.1 to take Richardson in January, before he even declared. This would be a much less bold move.

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Thanks for the response EBF. At this point, that guy for me is probably Gio Bernard, who has grown on me greatly. I can easily see him going late 1st or early 2nd, which would most likely place him on a team that actually has a RB need. I don't love him yet, but I can see it happening if I keep digging deeper and imagine him in a good situation haha. I'm thinking of trying to move a guy like Ryan Mathews for him. He's got enough of a pedigree, name, and history succeeding in 2011 to get it done, but isn't enough of a sure thing to make it a crazy deal on my part. If I love someone I'd be going all in though. Last year I traded Forte and Lloyd for the 1.1 to take Richardson in January, before he even declared. This would be a much less bold move.

It's much easier to get the 1.01 now (especially with all the "weak" draft talk) than it will be once these picks become actual players and the hype and hope starts up.I don't think a Matthews for the pick is all that crazy, although I do think Matthews is a slightly better talent than Bernard or Lacy (two guys I like quite a bit). Risk is almost always a factor in every move made in dynasty leagues so go with what you think is best - not everything works out in your favor, but you just got to beleive it will more than it won't.
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Thanks for the response EBF. At this point, that guy for me is probably Gio Bernard, who has grown on me greatly. I can easily see him going late 1st or early 2nd, which would most likely place him on a team that actually has a RB need. I don't love him yet, but I can see it happening if I keep digging deeper and imagine him in a good situation haha. I'm thinking of trying to move a guy like Ryan Mathews for him. He's got enough of a pedigree, name, and history succeeding in 2011 to get it done, but isn't enough of a sure thing to make it a crazy deal on my part. If I love someone I'd be going all in though. Last year I traded Forte and Lloyd for the 1.1 to take Richardson in January, before he even declared. This would be a much less bold move.

Lacy and Bernard are both likely to have more value than Mathews very soon, in my opinion. I would very happily trade Mathews for the 1.01. In fact, I'd likely add to Matthews to get it.The 1.01 will have a great deal of value. We call it a bad class now, and it is, but the 1.01 gives you the very best of this class, AFTER we get to see their situations, including combine numbers, draft position, etcetera. Someone is going to be worth that 1.01 and they will be worth more than Ryan Mathews. Imagine the Steelers taking Eddie Lacy in the first after he runs a 4.5 flat, or the Falcons trading up to get Bernard. A very talented player is going to end up in an ideal situation and they'll be 2-3 years younger than Mathews and won't have the injury history.
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Imagine Ertz and Eifert going to Atlanta/GB in the first 2 rounds - how much of a shot in the arm does this draft class get? Both would be worth top 5-6 (PPR)picks in most drafts, in my opinion.

Chicago would as good, if not a better landing spot for either player than GB IMO. Other decent spots are Wash, Miami, Pitt because of uncertainty with the current starters.
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Imagine Ertz and Eifert going to Atlanta/GB in the first 2 rounds - how much of a shot in the arm does this draft class get? Both would be worth top 5-6 (PPR)picks in most drafts, in my opinion.

Chicago would as good, if not a better landing spot for either player than GB IMO. Other decent spots are Wash, Miami, Pitt because of uncertainty with the current starters.
TE producion is closely tied to QB play; I'll gladly hitch to Rodgers/Ryan.
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Thanks for the response EBF. At this point, that guy for me is probably Gio Bernard, who has grown on me greatly. I can easily see him going late 1st or early 2nd, which would most likely place him on a team that actually has a RB need. I don't love him yet, but I can see it happening if I keep digging deeper and imagine him in a good situation haha. I'm thinking of trying to move a guy like Ryan Mathews for him. He's got enough of a pedigree, name, and history succeeding in 2011 to get it done, but isn't enough of a sure thing to make it a crazy deal on my part. If I love someone I'd be going all in though. Last year I traded Forte and Lloyd for the 1.1 to take Richardson in January, before he even declared. This would be a much less bold move.

Lacy and Bernard are both likely to have more value than Mathews very soon, in my opinion. I would very happily trade Mathews for the 1.01. In fact, I'd likely add to Matthews to get it.The 1.01 will have a great deal of value. We call it a bad class now, and it is, but the 1.01 gives you the very best of this class, AFTER we get to see their situations, including combine numbers, draft position, etcetera. Someone is going to be worth that 1.01 and they will be worth more than Ryan Mathews. Imagine the Steelers taking Eddie Lacy in the first after he runs a 4.5 flat, or the Falcons trading up to get Bernard. A very talented player is going to end up in an ideal situation and they'll be 2-3 years younger than Mathews and won't have the injury history.
Agree with this and traded Mike Wallace (PPR) this week for the 1.01 without a specific player yet in mind.
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There's a lot of talk here about the Packers, so as a homer, I thought I'd throw in my .02. Last year they started the draft by taking 6 defensive players in a row. A lot of them look like they can play. I don't think they'll ignore the defense in this years draft as they did the offense last year, but drafting a skill player or two high would seem fairly likely. They are likely to lose Jennings, Finley and Driver, and I wouldn't be surprised if they parted ways with Starks. The offensive line will be getting back former 1st rounders Bulaga and Sherrod, and it appears they've found another couple guys that can play in Dietrich-Smith and Barclay. So despite the high sack numbers this year, I don't think they'll go that direction, at least with a high pick. They've drafted a lot of TEs in the last few years (Quarless, DJ Williams, Ryan Taylor) that are all still with the team. None of them have stood out in the passing game as of yet. I don't think any of them have upper half of TE1 upside. They are all somewhat limited athletically.Thompson seems to love drafting and developing WRs from the 2nd-3rd rounds. (Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Cobb were all 2nd and 3rds) He also took Terrance Murphy in RD2. He had a career ender quickly, but looked very good in his brief appearance. At RB Thompson has mostly swung and missed in the draft. He took Brandon Jackson in the 2nd, Alex Green in the 3rd, and James Starks in the 6th. To sum it up, I think Thompson will take another WR in the 2nd/3rd. Based on Thompson's track record, its fairly likely that guy will be a good player in 2-3 years. At RB, I think its fairly likely they bring back Benson and part ways with Grant and Starks. Alex Green and Dujuan Harris will have a battle to win the 3rd down job. Looking objectively at that situation has to lead one to believe the RB position is a definite weak spot. Benson still has starter ability, but is 30 years old and coming off injury. I think Eddie Lacy would be a great candidate to groom behind Benson for 2013. Its tough saying what they will do at TE. They've got a lot of draft choices invested there, but none have stood out on the field as of yet. They obviously know more based on practices, but if there was someone dominating there I would have heard about it by now. So a Eifert or Ertz is a definite possibility too, although grabbing an athletic guy a little later in the draft and developing him is certainly a possibility too.

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Thanks for the response EBF. At this point, that guy for me is probably Gio Bernard, who has grown on me greatly. I can easily see him going late 1st or early 2nd, which would most likely place him on a team that actually has a RB need. I don't love him yet, but I can see it happening if I keep digging deeper and imagine him in a good situation haha. I'm thinking of trying to move a guy like Ryan Mathews for him. He's got enough of a pedigree, name, and history succeeding in 2011 to get it done, but isn't enough of a sure thing to make it a crazy deal on my part. If I love someone I'd be going all in though. Last year I traded Forte and Lloyd for the 1.1 to take Richardson in January, before he even declared. This would be a much less bold move.

Lacy and Bernard are both likely to have more value than Mathews very soon, in my opinion. I would very happily trade Mathews for the 1.01. In fact, I'd likely add to Matthews to get it.The 1.01 will have a great deal of value. We call it a bad class now, and it is, but the 1.01 gives you the very best of this class, AFTER we get to see their situations, including combine numbers, draft position, etcetera. Someone is going to be worth that 1.01 and they will be worth more than Ryan Mathews. Imagine the Steelers taking Eddie Lacy in the first after he runs a 4.5 flat, or the Falcons trading up to get Bernard. A very talented player is going to end up in an ideal situation and they'll be 2-3 years younger than Mathews and won't have the injury history.
Exactly my thinking. By draft time, the 1.1 has to be worth more than Mathews after this season. If its a WR rather than a RB that has everyone drooling, you can trade the pick for a RB better than Mathews, most likely. The 1.1 is a liquid asset that's very easy to hold, watch appreciate in value, and then use or sell at a later date, even in a weaker class like this.I could easily see Bernard being hyped as the next Bryan Westbrook or Lesean McCoy in a great situation come April.
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Imagine Ertz and Eifert going to Atlanta/GB in the first 2 rounds - how much of a shot in the arm does this draft class get? Both would be worth top 5-6 (PPR)picks in most drafts, in my opinion.

Chicago would as good, if not a better landing spot for either player than GB IMO. Other decent spots are Wash, Miami, Pitt because of uncertainty with the current starters.
TE producion is closely tied to QB play; I'll gladly hitch to Rodgers/Ryan.
No doubt, just pointing out that there are more than two teams that can elavate their value. And barring the Bears rehiring Martz I have Chicago ahead of GB just because theere are so many mouths to feed in GB.
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Exactly my thinking. By draft time, the 1.1 has to be worth more than Mathews after this season. If its a WR rather than a RB that has everyone drooling, you can trade the pick for a RB better than Mathews, most likely.

I don't necessarily disagree with your overall point, especially if you're just talking about trade value, but I might put the brake pedals on this kind of talk. I think in dynasty FF we all have a tendency to get carried away with the shiny new toy at times. Yes, there are some decent players in this draft, but let's not forget that guys like McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, Mathews, Wells, and Moreno were touted as saviors in the same way that some people are starting to pump up Lacy and Bernard. Those guys haven't all been busts, but they represent a pretty good cautionary tale for why we should probably exercise some restraint when it comes to projecting great things from draft prospects. Nevermind the fact that there might not be a single RB in this draft who even gets picked in the first round. I think guys like Lacy and Bernard have the potential to be productive in the right situations, but if you asked me if there's anybody in this RB class who's more talented than guys like Mathews, Stewart, and Mendenhall, I would say probably not. The bigger point I would stress is that not all of these prospects are going to live up to their billing or fulfill your expectations for their careers. Even if they become effective NFL players, injuries and situational factors can hinder their careers in the same way that they've held back so many other guys before them. Without knowing where they'll end up, I'd actually rather have Mathews than any rookie RB in this draft.
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Without knowing where they'll end up, I'd actually rather have Mathews than any rookie RB in this draft.

:goodposting:I agree. I know a lot of people are very down on Mathews, but I'm not. I think he will rebound strong next season, along with the rest of the Chargers offense. IMO he is a great buy low target.
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Lacy and Gio will be 3 years younger than Mathews when they suit up for their NFL teams. Mathews will be 26, 2 months older than Arian Foster was going into this season. It's not a matter of who the better player is. Unless you think Mathews starts turning in top 3 seasons, all Lacy and Gio have to do is put up top 15 numbers for a handful of seasons.For the record, I am not a big Gio fan and am going off the assumption that he is drafted where he is being mocked. I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up like Lamar Miller, who was a 1st round pick this time last year.

Edited by Concept Coop
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Lacy and Gio will be 3 years younger than Mathews when they suit up for their NFL teams. Mathews will be 26, 2 months older than Arian Foster was going into this season.

It's not a matter of who the better player is. Unless you think Mathews starts turning in top 3 seasons, all Lacy and Gio have to do is put up top 15 numbers for a handful of seasons.

Seriously (on the bolded)?

Matthews has a fantasy RB7 season under his belt, and when healthy has looked like a Pro Bowl RB against NFL competition. He's been banged up, so that will obviously weigh more for some people than others, but with a slight turnaround by SD (and a healthy Matthews), he has top-5 upside.

Eddie Lacy and Gio Bernard aren't 1st round talents, aren't guaranteed to land in good situations, and certainly are far from locks for any fantasy relevance, much less a couple of top-15 finishes.

Give me the guy with legit difference making talent and some bad luck w/ injuries all day. Easily. Those extra few years of age don't matter much if a guy settles in as a backup, a special teamer, or washes out of the NFL in a few years, all of which are just as likely with a non-elite RB as is multiple years of a featured role.

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all Lacy and Gio have to do is put up top 15 numbers for a handful of seasons.

Which is actually quite difficult, as players like Moreno, Wells, McFadden, Felix, Stewart, and D Brown demonstrate. Youth is nice, but a mediocre young player isn't going to have longevity just because of his age. He'll be lucky to last more than a season getting meaningful playing time. I'm not saying that Bernard and Lacy are mediocre. I'm just saying that people need to factor in the probability of them disappointing instead of just focusing on the best case scenario. I also think part of the reason why we tend to overrate draft prospects is because we spend an entire season talking about them in the context of their draft class and not in the context of the NFL as a whole. Take a guy like Justin Hunter for example. Most would agree that he's one of the most talented receivers in this class. When you compare him to other college WRs, he stands out. But when you compare him to NFL receivers, he starts to look a lot more average. Is he better than Michael Crabtree? Santonio Holmes? Sidney Rice? Josh Gordon? Roy Williams? Braylon Edwards? His outlook starts to look a lot more cloudy when you put things in perspective.
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Seriously (on the bolded)?Matthews has a fantasy RB7 season under his belt, and when healthy has looked like a Pro Bowl RB against NFL competition. He's been banged up, so that will obviously weigh more for some people than others, but with a slight turnaround by SD (and a healthy Matthews), he has top-5 upside.Eddie Lacy and Gio Bernard aren't 1st round talents, aren't guaranteed to land in good situations, and certainly are far from locks for any fantasy relevance, much less a couple of top-15 finishes.Give me the guy with legit difference making talent and some bad luck w/ injuries all day. Easily. Those extra few years of age don't matter much if a guy settles in as a backup, a special teamer, or washes out of the NFL in a few years, all of which are just as likely with a non-elite RB as is multiple years of a featured role.

Mathews has had one 1,000 season and averages less than 5 TDs a year. And I don't see difference making talent when I watch him in the NFL. Your calls on Lacy and Gio are fine, but we don't have to make that call right now. We get to see how the NFL values them which is THE most important variable in placing value. If they go in the 1st, the NFL does think they are elite. From a talent standpoint, I'll gladly take Lacy over Mathews.
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Which is actually quite difficult, as players like Moreno, Wells, McFadden, Felix, Stewart, and D Brown demonstrate. Youth is nice, but a mediocre young player isn't going to have longevity just because of his age. He'll be lucky to last more than a season getting meaningful playing time. I'm not saying that Bernard and Lacy are mediocre. I'm just saying that people need to factor in the probability of them disappointing instead of just focusing on the best case scenario. I also think part of the reason why we tend to overrate draft prospects is because we spend an entire season talking about them in the context of their draft class and not in the context of the NFL as a whole. Take a guy like Justin Hunter for example. Most would agree that he's one of the most talented receivers in this class. When you compare him to other college WRs, he stands out. But when you compare him to NFL receivers, he starts to look a lot more average. Is he better than Michael Crabtree? Santonio Holmes? Sidney Rice? Josh Gordon? Roy Williams? Braylon Edwards? His outlook starts to look a lot more cloudy when you put things in perspective.

The 40% chance that a 1st round RB busts is taken into my valuation of the 1.01. I'll take that risk in exchange for a 3 years, when the vet is an injury risk who himself has yet to put it all together.
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Seriously (on the bolded)?Matthews has a fantasy RB7 season under his belt, and when healthy has looked like a Pro Bowl RB against NFL competition. He's been banged up, so that will obviously weigh more for some people than others, but with a slight turnaround by SD (and a healthy Matthews), he has top-5 upside.Eddie Lacy and Gio Bernard aren't 1st round talents, aren't guaranteed to land in good situations, and certainly are far from locks for any fantasy relevance, much less a couple of top-15 finishes.Give me the guy with legit difference making talent and some bad luck w/ injuries all day. Easily. Those extra few years of age don't matter much if a guy settles in as a backup, a special teamer, or washes out of the NFL in a few years, all of which are just as likely with a non-elite RB as is multiple years of a featured role.

Mathews has had one 1,000 season and averages less than 5 TDs a year. And I don't see difference making talent when I watch him in the NFL. Your calls on Lacy and Gio are fine, but we don't have to make that call right now. We get to see how the NFL values them which is THE most important variable in placing value. If they go in the 1st, the NFL does think they are elite. From a talent standpoint, I'll gladly take Lacy over Mathews.
Mathews is 25 and has a 1,000 yard season with 50 receptions on his resume. How many prospects can you get at his value with a resume like that? Edited by tdmills
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Mathews is 25 and has a 1,000 yard season with 50 receptions on his resume. How many prospects can you get at his value with a resume like that?

Resume? He's been banged up and injured his entire career. He has 14 TDs over 3 seasons. He is very quickly becoming a bust - he was benched for fumbling, wasn't trusted at the goal line, pulled often in the 2 minute drill (for Ronnie Brown)... what resume? You guys can keep hoping it's his year but I've moved on. He's soft.It's a talent call. If you think he is an elite talent, I see your stance. If you don't, I don't; take the pick.
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all Lacy and Gio have to do is put up top 15 numbers for a handful of seasons.

Which is actually quite difficult, as players like Moreno, Wells, McFadden, Felix, Stewart, and D Brown demonstrate.
One thing to consider is the chance of the bottom falling out. If Mathews has another bad year, his value could free fall down to where Wells is now, outside of the top 100. All those players listed had enough pedigree to retain decent trade value for more than a full year. Whether Gio and Lacy do is questionable. Big difference between 1st round picks like those above, and 2nd round picks (Vereen, Pead, Gerhart). Given the lack of other young players to hype, their value should be pretty stable IMO - more stable than Mathews.
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Resume? He's been banged up and injured his entire career. He has 14 TDs over 3 seasons. He is very quickly becoming a bust - he was benched for fumbling, wasn't trusted at the goal line, pulled often in the 2 minute drill (for Ronnie Brown)... what resume?

You guys can keep hoping it's his year but I've moved on. He's soft.

It's a talent call. If you think he is an elite talent, I see your stance. If you don't, I don't; take the pick.

I've never been a huge Matthews fan, thought he was a reach when he was drafted, and have never owned him in any dynasty league. That said, in 2011 he absolutely was a difference maker. He's not in the top handful of RBs in the NFL IMO -- but that's not who we are comparing him to here. Writing him off as a bust and a guy worth less than mediocre rookie prospects is definitely "shiny new toy" syndrome. In Matthews' one reasonably healthy season, he finished as RB7 despite Tolbert having a massive vulture role. I'm not a big fan of the whole avoiding injury = talent argument, and that is the only reasonable argument for preferring 1.01 here. That gamble might pay off, but you're banking on Matthews continuing to get hurt. AND one of the rookies landing in a good situation, AND that guy not being a bust himself. Definitely a -EV play.
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I'm not a big fan of the whole avoiding injury = talent argument, and that is the only reasonable argument for preferring 1.01 here.

I think Eddie Lacy is a better football player. He is 3 years younger. There are two reasonable or logical arguments. I respect your call and if you don't think there will be a top end talent this year at 1.01, keep the player. Edited by Concept Coop
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Last thing I'll add: Doug Martin wasn't a sure 1st round pick at this time last year. He was widely accepted to be the 4th or 5th best back in the class, next to Chris Polk. We have very little idea what the professionals think right now. The information available is not what it will be a couple months from now. There will be players whose stock will rise and fall. I am willing to bet on Lacy right now because I really like him. But if the NFL doesn't, and he slips, I get to re-evaluate and make that call once I have more information. I feel very confident that everyone here will have at least one prospect they like more than Ryan Mathews.

Edited by Concept Coop
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Regarding Dynasty Rankings, has anyone been able to see the FBG ones recently? I click the link and it shows nothing for the last 14 days. I click the "here" button to see for the last 28 days and nothing happens.Back to your original programming...

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Mathews is 25 and has a 1,000 yard season with 50 receptions on his resume. How many prospects can you get at his value with a resume like that?

Resume? He's been banged up and injured his entire career. He has 14 TDs over 3 seasons. He is very quickly becoming a bust - he was benched for fumbling, wasn't trusted at the goal line, pulled often in the 2 minute drill (for Ronnie Brown)... what resume? You guys can keep hoping it's his year but I've moved on. He's soft.It's a talent call. If you think he is an elite talent, I see your stance. If you don't, I don't; take the pick.
Yes he's been banged up and based on where you/other value him, it's a great buy right now. Eddie Lacy/Gio Bernard/etc may never have a 1000 yard/50 reception season or average 4.4 YPC in 3 years. But I do know that Ryan Mathews can do it. Also think about this season, had he not been injured=1,000 yard season with 50 receptions. Mathews is 6'0 220, runs in the mid 4.4's and proved to be a good FF producer when healthy. The gamble is him staying healthy and improving(pass blocking/fumbles) vs Lacy/Bernard/other rookie RB. This is the classic potential argument, nobody is in the wrong here.Disclaimer: I own Ryan Mathews in multiple dynasty leagues, already own Lacy in one as well.
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