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I don't think either baseline is right. A team that drafts TE/QB may not have a WR1 but may have 2 WR2. A team that drafts WR/WR usually still has a TE1. IMO 34/35/36 is closer to right.As I said, mean and stddev will still apply to raw points. The numerical analysis doesn't change much. Stddev(PPG) == Stddev(PPG-100) or any other constant.

It will apply to raw points, but it would still require a baseline, or certain collection of data. If we restricted it to WR1-12, Gronk's numerical value would skyrocket, in comparision. There are baselines we can use that will suggest WR5-6 is on par with Gronk. But WR 5-6 is simply an average starting WR1, and doesn't offer much advantage over the rest of your league, in that sense. I know we have to account for the fact that WR5-6 can also be started at two more positions, but I don't think it is quite accurate to then compare them to WR36+.
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If we picked a random league and replaced every starting TE with Gronk, every team would win a lot more games than if we went around and replaced every teams WR1 with AJ Green.

But what if you added Gronk to the team (without removing the current TE) vs. adding Green (without removing the current WR)? Suddenly then Green is replacing the WR3. If you asked people "would your team be better if you traded your best TE for Gronk or your best WR for Green", 90% would probably say Gronk, but that's because losing your best TE is usually much less costly than losing your best WR. If, on the other hand, you said "your QBs are Rodgers and Newton, and you can either trade Newton for Gronk or Green... which would help your team more?", it becomes a much closer call. That's why, in my mind, wr3, (not wr1), is an appropriate baseline against which to compare Green.
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But what if you added Gronk to the team (without removing the current TE) vs. adding Green (without removing the current WR)? Suddenly then Green is replacing the WR3. If you asked people "would your team be better if you traded your best TE for Gronk or your best WR for Green", 90% would probably say Gronk, but that's because losing your best TE is usually much less costly than losing your best WR. If, on the other hand, you said "your QBs are Rodgers and Newton, and you can either trade Newton for Gronk or Green... which would help your team more?", it becomes a much closer call. That's why, in my mind, wr3, (not wr1), is an appropriate baseline against which to compare Green.

Fair point.I just think Gronk needs some quantifiable advantage for being as rare as he is. I could be wrong and just over thinking it, but the basic VBD/Baseline just doesn't sit right with me, when talking about he and Graham. An average starting WR1 who gives you less than 1PPG advantage over only 50% of your league, shouldnt' be worth nearly as much as a TE who gives you an advantage over 100% of your league at a much higher PPG rate.
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Speaking of Percy Harvin*, I've got some fun stats on him!

[*]Over his last 16 games, Harvin has 112 receptions, 52 rushes, 1496 yards, 11 offensive TDs, and 1 return TD. Among WRs, only Calvin has scored more fantasy points in his last 16 games. Switching to PPR, Brandon Marshall edges past Harvin by a single point in his last 16 (118/1506/11).

[*]If you discarded all of his yards before the catch and only counted his YAC, Harvin would still be Minnesota's leading receiver this year, despite only playing 9 games. 79% of his yards came after the catch, by far the most in the league.

[*]Christian Ponder averaged 8.4 Y/A and a 102.8 rating throwing to Harvin this year. Those marks would rank 1st and 3rd this season, respectively.

[*]Despite missing 10 games, Percy Harvin has the 3rd most yards (behind Moss and Fitzgerald) and 4th most fantasy points (Moss, Fitzgerald, John Jefferson) of any WR through his age 24 season. If your league credits him for his 5 return TDs, he passes Jefferson on the points list.

*yes, I know no one was speaking of Percy Harvin.

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I just had a very interesting twitter discussion that reminded me why I don't have very interesting twitter discussions more often; my thought process does not distill down to 140 characters with any sort of grace.

Anyway, it was a discussion of Gronk vs. Green. I mentioned that a case could be made for Gronk at #1 overall as only Calvin has averaged more points over the last 3 years or over the last two years, and only Calvin and Marshall averaged more ppg this year. Which spawned a discussion of Gronk vs. AJ Green, and who was more valuable. Taking away the names, though, I think it makes a very interesting theory question: Imagine there are two players, both of whom are elite, both of whom are guaranteed to score the exact same number of points over the next 10 years (you have a crystal ball that told you the season-ending totals of these two- and only these two- players), and both of whom are the exact same age. One plays TE, and one plays WR. Which would you take first in a startup?

Points to consider-

*TE is a lower scoring position in general

* WR typically has a higher perceived value (trade value)

*leagues start more WRs than TEs

Would league settings affect your decision, and if so, how? Possible roster settings include 1/2/3/1, 1/2/2/1, 1/2/4/1, no flex, TE-eligible flex, superflex, etc. How would these settings change your decision, or would your decision be the same regardless of lineups?

The biggest factor is whether TE is required. In any league where TE is required, in the situation that you described above, I would absolutely take Gronk over Green, if they were both projected to remain top at their respective positions. I consider Gronk a first round pick in virtually every format. I think he's going to be on a lot of my teams next year.
Actually, that factor is meaningless, IMO. If TE is not required then it does not matter since both players are then exactly identical (same age, same points, and same position). If TE is required I still think it's easily the TE unless you're required to start 4 WR. Then I could see the argument sway back towards the WR.
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But what if you added Gronk to the team (without removing the current TE) vs. adding Green (without removing the current WR)? Suddenly then Green is replacing the WR3. If you asked people "would your team be better if you traded your best TE for Gronk or your best WR for Green", 90% would probably say Gronk, but that's because losing your best TE is usually much less costly than losing your best WR. If, on the other hand, you said "your QBs are Rodgers and Newton, and you can either trade Newton for Gronk or Green... which would help your team more?", it becomes a much closer call. That's why, in my mind, wr3, (not wr1), is an appropriate baseline against which to compare Green.

Fair point.I just think Gronk needs some quantifiable advantage for being as rare as he is. I could be wrong and just over thinking it, but the basic VBD/Baseline just doesn't sit right with me, when talking about he and Graham. An average starting WR1 who gives you less than 1PPG advantage over only 50% of your league, shouldnt' be worth nearly as much as a TE who gives you an advantage over 100% of your league at a much higher PPG rate.
He's not. Gronk already has a strong VBD advantage over AJ Green. I think your point about how dropoff matters as much as baseline is a fair one, but Thrifty's list of average VBDPG accounts for that- positions with a very steep dropoff will see a lower average VBD than a position with a shallower dropoff. Using your example from earlier, the first set would have an average VBD of 3.8 (with the top players at 5.0, or 1.2 above the average), while the second set would have an average VBD of 1.5 (with the top player at 5.0, or 3.5 above the average). Regular VBD already gives Gronk an edge. Dropoff-adjusted VBD widens it. No further steps beyond that are necessary- in fact, they really represent nothing more than confirmation bias prompting you to stack the deck more in Gronk's favor because it just feels like he should be more valuable than that.
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Actually, that factor is meaningless, IMO. If TE is not required then it does not matter since both players are then exactly identical (same age, same points, and same position). If TE is required I still think it's easily the TE unless you're required to start 4 WR. Then I could see the argument sway back towards the WR.

If TE is not required, then the WR is the clear choice. Both the TE and the WR would have identical actual value, but the WR would have the higher perceived value to serve as a tiebreaker.
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He's not. Gronk already has a strong VBD advantage over AJ Green. I think your point about how dropoff matters as much as baseline is a fair one, but Thrifty's list of average VBDPG accounts for that- positions with a very steep dropoff will see a lower average VBD than a position with a shallower dropoff. Using your example from earlier, the first set would have an average VBD of 3.8 (with the top players at 5.0, or 1.2 above the average), while the second set would have an average VBD of 1.5 (with the top player at 5.0, or 3.5 above the average). Regular VBD already gives Gronk an edge. Dropoff-adjusted VBD widens it. No further steps beyond that are necessary- in fact, they really represent nothing more than confirmation bias prompting you to stack the deck more in Gronk's favor because it just feels like he should be more valuable than that.

PPR, TE12/WR36 baseline, Gronk doens't have much, if anything, on Green. Do you think that is accurate?ETA: And yes, Thrify's data does give us everything; but only if we agree with the baseline. Edited by Concept Coop
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He's not. Gronk already has a strong VBD advantage over AJ Green. I think your point about how dropoff matters as much as baseline is a fair one, but Thrifty's list of average VBDPG accounts for that- positions with a very steep dropoff will see a lower average VBD than a position with a shallower dropoff. Using your example from earlier, the first set would have an average VBD of 3.8 (with the top players at 5.0, or 1.2 above the average), while the second set would have an average VBD of 1.5 (with the top player at 5.0, or 3.5 above the average). Regular VBD already gives Gronk an edge. Dropoff-adjusted VBD widens it. No further steps beyond that are necessary- in fact, they really represent nothing more than confirmation bias prompting you to stack the deck more in Gronk's favor because it just feels like he should be more valuable than that.

PPR, TE12/WR36 baseline, Gronk doens't have much, if anything, on Green. Do you think that is accurate?ETA: And yes, Thrify's data does give us everything; but only if we agree with the baseline.
According to PFR, pro-rate Gronk's numbers this year and he beats Green 112 to 84 in VBD. Of course, PFR doesn't use a 36/12 baseline (not sure how PFR calculates its baseline), and it's not ppr (although I'd think PPR would be an advantage for Gronk, though I could be wrong about that).Edit: switch to a 36/12 baseline, and Gronk would lead Green in VBD 112 to 92. Which sounds about right to me. Again, not sure how PPR changes the dynamic, but I think the story the raw numbers are spitting out seem pretty superficially plausible to me. Edited by SSOG
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According to PFR, pro-rate Gronk's numbers this year and he beats Green 112 to 84 in VBD. Of course, PFR doesn't use a 36/12 baseline (not sure how PFR calculates its baseline), and it's not ppr (although I'd think PPR would be an advantage for Gronk, though I could be wrong about that).Edit: switch to a 36/12 baseline, and Gronk would lead Green in VBD 112 to 92. Which sounds about right to me. Again, not sure how PPR changes the dynamic, but I think the story the raw numbers are spitting out seem pretty superficially plausible to me.

2012 PPG VBD (PPER TE12; WR36)Gronk: 143Green: 134Add a flex and it pushes it towards Green.
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PPR PPG, TE1 (gronk) - TE3 (end of 1st tier) < WR2 (end of elite tier) - WR9 (end of 2nd tier).

What are you using for tiers? 2012 Production or rankings?
Yeah, I messed up and was waiting to see if someone cared instead of just deleting. WR2 is actually Marshall not AJG. The rest is who you'd expect based on dynasty rankings. Gronk = 18, Hern = 14.4, Marshall = 20.9, Cruz = 15.9. Flip in AJG and the inequality goes the other way. Regardless, it's close enough to be close.
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PPRAJG 18.7 WR36 12.2 = 6.5Gronk 18 TE12 10 = 86.5/8 = 0.8125StandardAJG 12.7 WR36 7.9 = 4.8Gronk 13 TE12 6.4 = 6.64.8/6.6 = 0.7273Therefore Gronk is better in relation to AJG in standard.

Interesting, I would have expected the opposite. Thanks!
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According to PFR, pro-rate Gronk's numbers this year and he beats Green 112 to 84 in VBD. Of course, PFR doesn't use a 36/12 baseline (not sure how PFR calculates its baseline), and it's not ppr (although I'd think PPR would be an advantage for Gronk, though I could be wrong about that).Edit: switch to a 36/12 baseline, and Gronk would lead Green in VBD 112 to 92. Which sounds about right to me. Again, not sure how PPR changes the dynamic, but I think the story the raw numbers are spitting out seem pretty superficially plausible to me.

2012 PPG VBD (PPER TE12; WR36)Gronk: 143Green: 134Add a flex and it pushes it towards Green.
In a league where it is 1/1/1 and 3 flex PPR, I'm guessing Green is higher VBD than Gronk. I was looking at either Gronk or Green in the lower first drafting soon... I would be happy with either, but I think I'd lean Green given this information. Edited by meyerj31
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In a league where it is 1/1/1 and 3 flex PPR, I'm guessing Green is higher VBD than Gronk. I was looking at either Gronk or Green in the lower first drafting soon... I would be happy with either, but I think I'd lean Green given this information.

In that format, I would take Green. Actually, I'd start to really look at guys like Thomas and Bryant too, assuming Green is gone.
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Speaking of Percy Harvin*, I've got some fun stats on him!

[*]Over his last 16 games, Harvin has 112 receptions, 52 rushes, 1496 yards, 11 offensive TDs, and 1 return TD. Among WRs, only Calvin has scored more fantasy points in his last 16 games. Switching to PPR, Brandon Marshall edges past Harvin by a single point in his last 16 (118/1506/11).

[*]If you discarded all of his yards before the catch and only counted his YAC, Harvin would still be Minnesota's leading receiver this year, despite only playing 9 games. 79% of his yards came after the catch, by far the most in the league.

[*]Christian Ponder averaged 8.4 Y/A and a 102.8 rating throwing to Harvin this year. Those marks would rank 1st and 3rd this season, respectively.

[*]Despite missing 10 games, Percy Harvin has the 3rd most yards (behind Moss and Fitzgerald) and 4th most fantasy points (Moss, Fitzgerald, John Jefferson) of any WR through his age 24 season. If your league credits him for his 5 return TDs, he passes Jefferson on the points list.

*yes, I know no one was speaking of Percy Harvin.

He is an amazing player. I wish I could say with confidence where he will be playing next season.

Prior to the 2012 season the Vikings tried to manage Harvin's snaps. However with Peterson injured/recovering the Vikings leaned more heavily on Harvin and he put up the numbers you describe above. Harvin much like Peterson plays very violent and I think that is part of the reason the Vikings have payed close attention to his snap count. The best way to preserve him would likely be to not give him as many rushing attempts, the Vikings needed that multiple threat (and it is still useful) while Peterson was out/recovering but not as much now that AD is healthy.

I think part of the reason Viking fans do not believe in Ponder is because as you point out 79% of Harvins yards came after the catch. Those bubble screens really inflate Ponders completion % as well, Harvin did a lot of work for Ponder.

I think Harvin will continue to be a very productive WR moving forward and just about any situation would be as good or better for him than he has had thus far with the Vikings. I am excited to see what he could do in a season where he is fully healthy and with improved QB play (which I think he will enjoy even if he stays with the Vikings).

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In a league where it is 1/1/1 and 3 flex PPR, I'm guessing Green is higher VBD than Gronk. I was looking at either Gronk or Green in the lower first drafting soon... I would be happy with either, but I think I'd lean Green given this information.

In that format, I would take Green. Actually, I'd start to really look at guys like Thomas and Bryant too, assuming Green is gone.
My goal is to get two of Green/Bryant/Marshall/Harvin around the turn (I'm avoiding Thomas/Julio that early... they are beefcake but the competition of Roddy/Decker limits their upside) and then Andre Johnson around the next turn, whom I expect to be there around late third. I think getting three of those top target receivers creates a massive baseline every given week when you can start 4 receivers in PPR. The guy who wins the league, though, will likely be someone who takes RB/RB then hits on late round receivers, which is easier than late round RBs. So I think my projected weekly average will be high but my upside will be more limited than a RB/RB strategy. Edited by meyerj31
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My goal is to get two of Green/Bryant/Marshall/Harvin around the turn (I'm avoiding Thomas/Julio that early... they are beefcake but the competition of Roddy/Decker limits their upside) and then Andre Johnson around the next turn, whom I expect to be there around late third. I think getting three of those top target receivers creates a massive baseline every given week when you can start 4 receivers in PPR. The guy who wins the league, though, will likely be someone who takes RB/RB then hits on late round receivers, which is easier than late round RBs. So I think my projected weekly average will be high but my upside will be more limited than a RB/RB strategy.

Don't be surprised if the large majority is thinking like you. If you are at the 12/13 turn, you'll be lucky to get one of Bryant/Thomas; Julio and Green are long gone. I do think Marshall is likely to be there. Harvin should be as well. But I do think that is a good strategy in this format. Personally, I'd look to avoid RB as long as I could, and would be happy relying on a guy like Ridley, who should really slide in this format.
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Speaking of Percy Harvin*, I've got some fun stats on him!

[*]Over his last 16 games, Harvin has 112 receptions, 52 rushes, 1496 yards, 11 offensive TDs, and 1 return TD. Among WRs, only Calvin has scored more fantasy points in his last 16 games. Switching to PPR, Brandon Marshall edges past Harvin by a single point in his last 16 (118/1506/11).

[*]If you discarded all of his yards before the catch and only counted his YAC, Harvin would still be Minnesota's leading receiver this year, despite only playing 9 games. 79% of his yards came after the catch, by far the most in the league.

[*]Christian Ponder averaged 8.4 Y/A and a 102.8 rating throwing to Harvin this year. Those marks would rank 1st and 3rd this season, respectively.

[*]Despite missing 10 games, Percy Harvin has the 3rd most yards (behind Moss and Fitzgerald) and 4th most fantasy points (Moss, Fitzgerald, John Jefferson) of any WR through his age 24 season. If your league credits him for his 5 return TDs, he passes Jefferson on the points list.

*yes, I know no one was speaking of Percy Harvin.

He is an amazing player. I wish I could say with confidence where he will be playing next season.

Prior to the 2012 season the Vikings tried to manage Harvin's snaps. However with Peterson injured/recovering the Vikings leaned more heavily on Harvin and he put up the numbers you describe above. Harvin much like Peterson plays very violent and I think that is part of the reason the Vikings have payed close attention to his snap count. The best way to preserve him would likely be to not give him as many rushing attempts, the Vikings needed that multiple threat (and it is still useful) while Peterson was out/recovering but not as much now that AD is healthy.

I think part of the reason Viking fans do not believe in Ponder is because as you point out 79% of Harvins yards came after the catch. Those bubble screens really inflate Ponders completion % as well, Harvin did a lot of work for Ponder.

I think Harvin will continue to be a very productive WR moving forward and just about any situation would be as good or better for him than he has had thus far with the Vikings. I am excited to see what he could do in a season where he is fully healthy and with improved QB play (which I think he will enjoy even if he stays with the Vikings).

Harvin's emergence wasn't really tied to Peterson's injury. He had 1312/8 in 2011, and was breasting down the stretch- he topped 70 yards in 8 of his last 9, 90 yards in 6 of his last 7, and 100 yards in 5 of his last 6, with all 8 of his scores coming in those 9 games.
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Speaking of Percy Harvin*, I've got some fun stats on him!

[*]Over his last 16 games, Harvin has 112 receptions, 52 rushes, 1496 yards, 11 offensive TDs, and 1 return TD. Among WRs, only Calvin has scored more fantasy points in his last 16 games. Switching to PPR, Brandon Marshall edges past Harvin by a single point in his last 16 (118/1506/11).

[*]If you discarded all of his yards before the catch and only counted his YAC, Harvin would still be Minnesota's leading receiver this year, despite only playing 9 games. 79% of his yards came after the catch, by far the most in the league.

[*]Christian Ponder averaged 8.4 Y/A and a 102.8 rating throwing to Harvin this year. Those marks would rank 1st and 3rd this season, respectively.

[*]Despite missing 10 games, Percy Harvin has the 3rd most yards (behind Moss and Fitzgerald) and 4th most fantasy points (Moss, Fitzgerald, John Jefferson) of any WR through his age 24 season. If your league credits him for his 5 return TDs, he passes Jefferson on the points list.

*yes, I know no one was speaking of Percy Harvin.

He is an amazing player. I wish I could say with confidence where he will be playing next season.

Prior to the 2012 season the Vikings tried to manage Harvin's snaps. However with Peterson injured/recovering the Vikings leaned more heavily on Harvin and he put up the numbers you describe above. Harvin much like Peterson plays very violent and I think that is part of the reason the Vikings have payed close attention to his snap count. The best way to preserve him would likely be to not give him as many rushing attempts, the Vikings needed that multiple threat (and it is still useful) while Peterson was out/recovering but not as much now that AD is healthy.

I think part of the reason Viking fans do not believe in Ponder is because as you point out 79% of Harvins yards came after the catch. Those bubble screens really inflate Ponders completion % as well, Harvin did a lot of work for Ponder.

I think Harvin will continue to be a very productive WR moving forward and just about any situation would be as good or better for him than he has had thus far with the Vikings. I am excited to see what he could do in a season where he is fully healthy and with improved QB play (which I think he will enjoy even if he stays with the Vikings).

Harvin's emergence wasn't really tied to Peterson's injury. He had 1312/8 in 2011, and was breasting down the stretch- he topped 70 yards in 8 of his last 9, 90 yards in 6 of his last 7, and 100 yards in 5 of his last 6, with all 8 of his scores coming in those 9 games.
I never said it was. I was talking about the coaching staff seeing some need for manage/limit Harvin's carries. Presumably in the attempt to keep him healthy/100% all season. My comment was about what would one cut from the game of Harvin who can do it all? I would reduce the rushing attempts. Harvin is very valuable as a returner and as a reciever. With AD healthy they do not have to show the big play threat of Harvin running the ball as much as when they did when he was injured.

The rushing attempts sending Harvin into a pile have been shown enough that I think the Vikings can still use the motion/formations without sending Harvin straight up the middle. Harvin has scored this way before but if you asked me what one thing would I cut from his opportunity that would be it.

Otherwise just let Harvin do it all and recognize that he will likely get injured at some point because of the way he plays. Not sure exactly the thinking behind managing Harvin's touches, but they definitely have been doing this, it may be part of why Harvin was unhappy during last seasons mini camps. With the gloves off Harvin did not make through the entire season.

The Vikings have closely managed Petersons touches as well. I was astonished to learn AD had not had more than 31 carries in a game prior to last season.

There are thresholds that the coaches are following in this regard. I would be curious to see the reasoning behind it. There is some method they have developed and that they follow. What that is based on is a good question.

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I discovered a random but interesting fact today while digging around in the historical data dominator. I wanted to see where Harvin ranked in terms of most rushing yards by a WR in history. A HDD search turned up a couple of names ahead of him (such as Metcalf and Cribbs), but I recognized that most of the names were guys who started at RB or QB and later converted to WR, so I went digging around on PFR to see how many rushing yards they had in seasons where they were actually designated as a WR. Doing that, I realized that Harvin actually just broken the record for most rushing yards by a WR this season (McCluster did, too, but Harvin did it first and by a greater amount). That was pretty interesting, but the really interesting part was WHOSE record he broke. Prior to this year, the guy with the record for the most rushing yards by a WR in NFL history was... Jerry Rice, of course.When they say Rice owns every receiver record in the book, they really mean EVERY record.

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I discovered a random but interesting fact today while digging around in the historical data dominator. I wanted to see where Harvin ranked in terms of most rushing yards by a WR in history. A HDD search turned up a couple of names ahead of him (such as Metcalf and Cribbs), but I recognized that most of the names were guys who started at RB or QB and later converted to WR, so I went digging around on PFR to see how many rushing yards they had in seasons where they were actually designated as a WR. Doing that, I realized that Harvin actually just broken the record for most rushing yards by a WR this season (McCluster did, too, but Harvin did it first and by a greater amount). That was pretty interesting, but the really interesting part was WHOSE record he broke. Prior to this year, the guy with the record for the most rushing yards by a WR in NFL history was... Jerry Rice, of course.When they say Rice owns every receiver record in the book, they really mean EVERY record.

Don't tell that to the self annoited greatest WRbto ever play the game. :rolleyes: Edited by 32 Counter Pass
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I discovered a random but interesting fact today while digging around in the historical data dominator. I wanted to see where Harvin ranked in terms of most rushing yards by a WR in history. A HDD search turned up a couple of names ahead of him (such as Metcalf and Cribbs), but I recognized that most of the names were guys who started at RB or QB and later converted to WR, so I went digging around on PFR to see how many rushing yards they had in seasons where they were actually designated as a WR. Doing that, I realized that Harvin actually just broken the record for most rushing yards by a WR this season (McCluster did, too, but Harvin did it first and by a greater amount). That was pretty interesting, but the really interesting part was WHOSE record he broke. Prior to this year, the guy with the record for the most rushing yards by a WR in NFL history was... Jerry Rice, of course.When they say Rice owns every receiver record in the book, they really mean EVERY record.

Don't tell that to the self annoited greatest WRbto ever play the game. :rolleyes:
I dunno, Rice lost two records this year (career rushing yards and single-season receiving yards). If he keeps seeing his records fall at this pace, in another 25 years he won't have any left.
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I discovered a random but interesting fact today while digging around in the historical data dominator. I wanted to see where Harvin ranked in terms of most rushing yards by a WR in history. A HDD search turned up a couple of names ahead of him (such as Metcalf and Cribbs), but I recognized that most of the names were guys who started at RB or QB and later converted to WR, so I went digging around on PFR to see how many rushing yards they had in seasons where they were actually designated as a WR. Doing that, I realized that Harvin actually just broken the record for most rushing yards by a WR this season (McCluster did, too, but Harvin did it first and by a greater amount). That was pretty interesting, but the really interesting part was WHOSE record he broke. Prior to this year, the guy with the record for the most rushing yards by a WR in NFL history was... Jerry Rice, of course.When they say Rice owns every receiver record in the book, they really mean EVERY record.

People forget how sick Rice was at running reverses. Deadly.
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I dunno, Rice lost two records this year (career rushing yards and single-season receiving yards). If he keeps seeing his records fall at this pace, in another 25 years he won't have any left.

2 records in 10 years. He should still have a few left. No one within dreaming distance of his career marks.
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I dunno, Rice lost two records this year (career rushing yards and single-season receiving yards). If he keeps seeing his records fall at this pace, in another 25 years he won't have any left.

2 records in 10 years. He should still have a few left. No one within dreaming distance of his career marks.
Three records in 10 years. Moss sniped the single-season TD record, too. Anyway, it was a joke- I was saying even if the assault on the record books was so great he was losing two records a year, it'd still probably take a quarter century to wipe him off the books.
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Player most likely to see his dynasty ADP jump by four rounds on the basis of one impact play today:LaMichael JamesHe's got a national stage and with nothing but the old Frank Gore and the injured Kendall Hunter ahead of him on the depth chart, I can really see his stock blowing up if he makes a couple good runs this afternoon. Bernard Pierce is a distant second. Even if he plays well, he still has Rice ahead of him to scare off buyers.

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Pitta is another guy who could see a big jump. He benefits from the fact that the general opinion of him is favorable (because his big games came early in the year and generated buzz) and also indistinct (because I think most people really haven't watched him much, yet). If he's Baltimore's leading receiver, or if he has one of those 2-TD games, I bet we'd see him break into the top 5 among TEs. Kaep is another guy who could really, really boost his stock on the big stage. It's already been trending upward ever since his monstrous game vs. Green Bay, but I shudder to think where it might end up if he has a Vince Young in the Rose Bowl kind of game.

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Pitta is another guy who could see a big jump. He benefits from the fact that the general opinion of him is favorable (because his big games came early in the year and generated buzz) and also indistinct (because I think most people really haven't watched him much, yet). If he's Baltimore's leading receiver, or if he has one of those 2-TD games, I bet we'd see him break into the top 5 among TEs. Kaep is another guy who could really, really boost his stock on the big stage. It's already been trending upward ever since his monstrous game vs. Green Bay, but I shudder to think where it might end up if he has a Vince Young in the Rose Bowl kind of game.

Torrey Smith is another guy too, if he and Flacco can hook up for a few long balls.
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Kaep is another guy who could really, really boost his stock on the big stage. It's already been trending upward ever since his monstrous game vs. Green Bay, but I shudder to think where it might end up if he has a Vince Young in the Rose Bowl kind of game.

I had actually compared his Green Bay game as being Vince Young Rose Bowl like so in that regard I think he already showed it. Obviously a guy with a such a small sample size of starts would boost his stock if he had two games like that instead of one and SB MVP hype could artificially inflate his fantasy value in people's minds so he still can improve his stock. On the flip side I think more than any player in this game he can hurt his stock if he has a miserable game and again I'd say that due to the small sample size of his starts that a massive and unforgettable negative game would stick in peoples minds more than they would for most.
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If Moss has a solid game (~60 yds + TD) I could see him go from undraftable next year to a WR2 for a homer or WR3 at the worst. Crabtree could jump from a solid WR2 to "In the conversation for a top 12 WR" with a similar stat line.

Edited by joey
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If Moss has a solid game (~60 yds + TD) I could see him go from undraftable next year to a WR2 for a homer or WR3 at the worst. Crabtree could jump from a solid WR2 to "In the conversation for a top 12 WR" with a similar stat line.

I think Crabtree should already be in that conversation.
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If Moss has a solid game (~60 yds + TD) I could see him go from undraftable next year to a WR2 for a homer or WR3 at the worst. Crabtree could jump from a solid WR2 to "In the conversation for a top 12 WR" with a similar stat line.

I think Crabtree should already be in that conversation.
A quick list off of DLF WR rankings...Calvin, AjG, Julio, Harvin, Demaryius, BMarshall, Fitz, Nicks, Dez, Cruz, Cobb, Wallace, Nelson, AJ, White, Welker, Antonio Brown, Decker, Jennings, Bowe....I think I can easily find 12 guys to put above him, if not 20. Even with a big game today I wouldn't personally put him in the top 12, but I think some might (you included, I guess).
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If Moss has a solid game (~60 yds + TD) I could see him go from undraftable next year to a WR2 for a homer or WR3 at the worst.

Crabtree could jump from a solid WR2 to "In the conversation for a top 12 WR" with a similar stat line.

I think Crabtree should already be in that conversation.
A quick list off of DLF WR rankings...

Calvin, AjG, Julio, Harvin, Demaryius, BMarshall, Fitz, Nicks, Dez, Cruz, Cobb, Wallace, Nelson, AJ, White, Welker, Antonio Brown, Decker, Jennings, Bowe....

I think I can easily find 12 guys to put above him, if not 20. Even with a big game today I wouldn't personally put him in the top 12, but I think some might (you included, I guess).

That means he's already in the conversation. I don't know where I have him rated yet but I know I'd take him over 8-10 of the WR's you listed above in the DLF rankings.
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Player most likely to see his dynasty ADP jump by four rounds on the basis of one impact play today:LaMichael JamesHe's got a national stage and with nothing but the old Frank Gore and the injured Kendall Hunter ahead of him on the depth chart, I can really see his stock blowing up if he makes a couple good runs this afternoon. Bernard Pierce is a distant second. Even if he plays well, he still has Rice ahead of him to scare off buyers.

:( not off to a good start
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If Moss has a solid game (~60 yds + TD) I could see him go from undraftable next year to a WR2 for a homer or WR3 at the worst.

Crabtree could jump from a solid WR2 to "In the conversation for a top 12 WR" with a similar stat line.

I think Crabtree should already be in that conversation.
A quick list off of DLF WR rankings...

Calvin, AjG, Julio, Harvin, Demaryius, BMarshall, Fitz, Nicks, Dez, Cruz, Cobb, Wallace, Nelson, AJ, White, Welker, Antonio Brown, Decker, Jennings, Bowe....

I think I can easily find 12 guys to put above him, if not 20. Even with a big game today I wouldn't personally put him in the top 12, but I think some might (you included, I guess).

That means he's already in the conversation. I don't know where I have him rated yet but I know I'd take him over 8-10 of the WR's you listed above in the DLF rankings.
Yeah. Seeing that list, I think there's a good chance I could find a place in my top 12 for Crabtree.
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If Moss has a solid game (~60 yds + TD) I could see him go from undraftable next year to a WR2 for a homer or WR3 at the worst.

Crabtree could jump from a solid WR2 to "In the conversation for a top 12 WR" with a similar stat line.

I think Crabtree should already be in that conversation.
A quick list off of DLF WR rankings...

Calvin, AjG, Julio, Harvin, Demaryius, BMarshall, Fitz, Nicks, Dez, Cruz, Cobb, Wallace, Nelson, AJ, White, Welker, Antonio Brown, Decker, Jennings, Bowe....

I think I can easily find 12 guys to put above him, if not 20. Even with a big game today I wouldn't personally put him in the top 12, but I think some might (you included, I guess).

That means he's already in the conversation. I don't know where I have him rated yet but I know I'd take him over 8-10 of the WR's you listed above in the DLF rankings.
Yeah. Seeing that list, I think there's a good chance I could find a place in my top 12 for Crabtree.
109 and a TD.

I'd say he's now in the conversation as a WR1. Showed amazing hands and hustle in this game, and most of the year.

He's probably worth a mention by a few folks in that other dynasty thread about "who did I give up on too soon".

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If Moss has a solid game (~60 yds + TD) I could see him go from undraftable next year to a WR2 for a homer or WR3 at the worst.

Crabtree could jump from a solid WR2 to "In the conversation for a top 12 WR" with a similar stat line.

I think Crabtree should already be in that conversation.
A quick list off of DLF WR rankings...

Calvin, AjG, Julio, Harvin, Demaryius, BMarshall, Fitz, Nicks, Dez, Cruz, Cobb, Wallace, Nelson, AJ, White, Welker, Antonio Brown, Decker, Jennings, Bowe....

I think I can easily find 12 guys to put above him, if not 20. Even with a big game today I wouldn't personally put him in the top 12, but I think some might (you included, I guess).

That means he's already in the conversation. I don't know where I have him rated yet but I know I'd take him over 8-10 of the WR's you listed above in the DLF rankings.
Yeah. Seeing that list, I think there's a good chance I could find a place in my top 12 for Crabtree.
109 and a TD.

I'd say he's now in the conversation as a WR1. Showed amazing hands and hustle in this game, and most of the year.

He's probably worth a mention by a few folks in that other dynasty thread about "who did I give up on too soon".

Thanks for reminding me. What a difference a year makes.

He definitely is in the Wr1 conversation. I was impressed last night.

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Something happened with Crabtree. He wasn't making these plays a year ago. He wasnt' breaking tackles, he wasn't beign explosive after the catch - metrics support this. Now, he is. I personally won't be investing in him - usually 1-2 guys in every league that will like him more than me - but he certainly has a case for a top 12 ranking. I'd take him before Cobb, pretty easily, for example. He's playing like a monster.

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Something happened with Crabtree. He wasn't making these plays a year ago. He wasnt' breaking tackles, he wasn't beign explosive after the catch - metrics support this. Now, he is.

He was 30th in the NFL last year in yac and I think #12 WR so I don't think that was to bad considering the offense. This year what happened was obviously Kaepernick. Field was small when Alex Smith was the QB. Lot's of short passes in traffic. CK's arm and legs opened up the field and created a lot more space for Crabtree and I think that was the difference, I don't think Crabtree himself was any more explosive it's he had a lot more space to run after the catch.
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He was 30th in the NFL last year in yac and I think #12 WR so I don't think that was to bad considering the offense. This year what happened was obviously Kaepernick. Field was small when Alex Smith was the QB. Lot's of short passes in traffic. CK's arm and legs opened up the field and created a lot more space for Crabtree and I think that was the difference, I don't think Crabtree himself was any more explosive it's he had a lot more space to run after the catch.

He had 7 YPT(!), despite having a higher % of deep balls go his way. Kaepernick helped, and you're right, defenses had much more to account for this year. But I think he stepped up and played at another level, and advanced metrics support that.
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If Moss has a solid game (~60 yds + TD) I could see him go from undraftable next year to a WR2 for a homer or WR3 at the worst.

Crabtree could jump from a solid WR2 to "In the conversation for a top 12 WR" with a similar stat line.

I think Crabtree should already be in that conversation.
A quick list off of DLF WR rankings...

Calvin, AjG, Julio, Harvin, Demaryius, BMarshall, Fitz, Nicks, Dez, Cruz, Cobb, Wallace, Nelson, AJ, White, Welker, Antonio Brown, Decker, Jennings, Bowe....

I think I can easily find 12 guys to put above him, if not 20. Even with a big game today I wouldn't personally put him in the top 12, but I think some might (you included, I guess).

That means he's already in the conversation. I don't know where I have him rated yet but I know I'd take him over 8-10 of the WR's you listed above in the DLF rankings.
Yeah. Seeing that list, I think there's a good chance I could find a place in my top 12 for Crabtree.
109 and a TD.

I'd say he's now in the conversation as a WR1. Showed amazing hands and hustle in this game, and most of the year.

He's probably worth a mention by a few folks in that other dynasty thread about "who did I give up on too soon".

Whew. Good thing we had this one game where he put up stats. If he hadn't been huge in this one game it would have totally left him out of said conversation. :rolleyes:
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