CR69
Footballguy
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=674829&page=4Donsmith753 said:
Thanks for sharing
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Dynasty Rankings (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
Thanks for sharing
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I can understand liking Hopkins more than the RBs, but I still think there's a good chance 1 or 2 are top 50 picks (Pitt, Cincy and NYJ both have picks in this area). In standard scoring, I like the RBs enough to pass on Hopkins.Adam Harstad said:
Houston is a good spot, but not going crazy for it. Not as much kismet as the STL and MIN pairings IMO. BAL or PIT would have been just as good although less likely destinations.
In PPR I'd probably take Austin. More chance of him cobb'ling together WR2 stats early on and becoming really valuable.
kutta
Footballguy
I like Hopkins too, and I agree he landed in a good spot. I just think Austin in St. Louis will catch a ton of balls, and I think the same thing about Patterson in Minnesota. Both guys are replacing PPR machines (Amendola and Harvin). Of course, they aren't the same players, but we at least see what is possible in those offenses.Adam Harstad said:
EBF
Footballguy
Quick and fast are two different things.
There are some aspects of Hopkins's game that I like. He was one of the most crisp route runners at the combine. He seems to have very good hands and shows a good ability to attack the ball and make contested catches. He also seems like a tough player who will work hard and give 100%. On the other hand, he will never ever beat anyone deep in the NFL. He's strictly a possession guy and while he could thrive as a #2 WR, he doesn't have the kind of overwhelming physical tools to become a #1. If we're talking about his NFL value, he could be worth what Houston paid for him. They've needed an upgrade from Kevin Walter for a while and he should give them that. If we're talking about his FF prospects, to me his outlook isn't as bright as a typical first round WR. People often compare him to Roddy White and there is a superficial similarity, but Roddy could run. His highlight reels at UAB consisted of him burning people deep. You don't see any of that with Hopkins.
I think he's a second tier rookie. He might be the best #2 receiver in the draft, but there are other guys like Patton, Harper, and Rogers who can give you a similar package at a reduced cost. It's highly unlikely that I'll draft Hopkins in any leagues this year, as I think he's a prime candidate for being overvalued.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Agree that Hopkins is not Roddy. I think he is more likely a Houshmandzadeh. Very high floor. Fairly common ceiling. Very safe pick in a draft full of boom / bust guys.
Looking purely at the first three rounds...
1.01 Austin
1.02 Lacy
1.03/4 Bernard
1.04/3 Patterson
1.05 Bell
1.06 Hopkins
1.07 Ball
1.08 Allen
1.09 Wheaton
1.10 Ertz
1.11 Hunter
1.12 Eifert
??? I'm actually loving 1.05-1.10 value, going into the second with plenty of decent players still there. Currently have the 1.06 in my main league and though I would love one of the top 4, I'm not complaining too much if things fall the way they do.
1.01 Austin
1.02 Lacy
1.03/4 Bernard
1.04/3 Patterson
1.05 Bell
1.06 Hopkins
1.07 Ball
1.08 Allen
1.09 Wheaton
1.10 Ertz
1.11 Hunter
1.12 Eifert
??? I'm actually loving 1.05-1.10 value, going into the second with plenty of decent players still there. Currently have the 1.06 in my main league and though I would love one of the top 4, I'm not complaining too much if things fall the way they do.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I like Bell with the Steelers quite a bit. I think the 1.05 is a pretty decent spot to be in and kind of where I noticed a tier break from the dynasty polls pre-draft also.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Some more information about player career length- http://www.statista.com/statistics/240102/average-player-career-length-in-the-national-football-league/
The average career length for a player is 3.3 years. This improves to 6 years for a rookie who is drafted and makes the team in their 1st season. That alone is a good reason to be patient with rookie picks as long as they make a team as a rookie. These players will have another 5 seasons on average to make an impact. I also see this as a loose guideline of what ones expectations for a player should be. You want to see some success within 3 years otherwise the player is at risk of not much longer being in the league.
For me this is a part of the logic behind using a 3 year projection window when evaluating players for dynasty.
Average career length for a running back is 2.57 years. So significantly less than the average overall player. On average a RB is not going to last as long as a 3 year projection for them, the turnover rate at the position is very high and RB have the greatest risk of injuriy. This is also a position that one should expect some instant impact from. Although recently with the league continually shifting to more of a passing game pass blocking from RB has become a bigger factor on their early career opportunity than it was when teams ran the ball more frequently.
So while a rookie who makes the roster as a rookie may have a 6 year career on average because of that, the RBs chances are less than 50% as good as the entire player pool.
When you combine these considerations it seems perhaps more harm than good to project any but a handful of RB based on more that 3 years. Other positions like QB and WR have longer career expectancy and I think looking at those positions from a longer view is more useful than it is for looking at the RB position.
The average career length for a player is 3.3 years. This improves to 6 years for a rookie who is drafted and makes the team in their 1st season. That alone is a good reason to be patient with rookie picks as long as they make a team as a rookie. These players will have another 5 seasons on average to make an impact. I also see this as a loose guideline of what ones expectations for a player should be. You want to see some success within 3 years otherwise the player is at risk of not much longer being in the league.
For me this is a part of the logic behind using a 3 year projection window when evaluating players for dynasty.
Average career length for a running back is 2.57 years. So significantly less than the average overall player. On average a RB is not going to last as long as a 3 year projection for them, the turnover rate at the position is very high and RB have the greatest risk of injuriy. This is also a position that one should expect some instant impact from. Although recently with the league continually shifting to more of a passing game pass blocking from RB has become a bigger factor on their early career opportunity than it was when teams ran the ball more frequently.
So while a rookie who makes the roster as a rookie may have a 6 year career on average because of that, the RBs chances are less than 50% as good as the entire player pool.
When you combine these considerations it seems perhaps more harm than good to project any but a handful of RB based on more that 3 years. Other positions like QB and WR have longer career expectancy and I think looking at those positions from a longer view is more useful than it is for looking at the RB position.
EBF
Footballguy
The "X years" window thing never really worked for me. This has come up many times in the past, probably several times in this thread alone.
I don't believe in a hard cutoff like that. Adrian Peterson might outscore Trent Richardson for the next three years, but that doesn't mean he's worth the same. Trent has a much higher longevity potential. There's a non-zero probability that he'll still be an elite FF asset in five years, whereas Peterson will almost certainly be retired or useless. More importantly, Trent is going to have a much higher exit value at the end of a tree year window. You'll probably be able to trade him for whoever you want in 2015, so he gives your squad a level of continuity and flexibility that you sacrifice with an older player.
I don't believe in a hard cutoff like that. Adrian Peterson might outscore Trent Richardson for the next three years, but that doesn't mean he's worth the same. Trent has a much higher longevity potential. There's a non-zero probability that he'll still be an elite FF asset in five years, whereas Peterson will almost certainly be retired or useless. More importantly, Trent is going to have a much higher exit value at the end of a tree year window. You'll probably be able to trade him for whoever you want in 2015, so he gives your squad a level of continuity and flexibility that you sacrifice with an older player.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Your examples are of elite players. Obviously a elite player such as Richardson has more long term expected value than an average RB has. There are only a few guys like that in the league and they do not come from every draft class.
Since 1992 here is my short list of players I would consider to be elite performers able to string together more than 2 or 3 VBD significant seasons -
Marshall Faulk
Edgerrin James
Steven Jackson
LaDainian Tomlinson
Adrian Peterson
Trent Richardson
Richardson has not done enough to deserve being put on the same list as these guys. But of any RB out there I think he is the one who could earn it.
Some honorable mentions but not quite elite imho-
Curtis Martin - HoF player. To me Martin was more of a lunch pail RB though. Nothing really special about him just tough and well rounded player who enjoyed a long career of success.
Shaun Alexander - 5 very good FF seasons. Was not good enough to take the starting job from Waters limited him. I don't consider him elite but he did perform at that level in FF
Clinton Portis - 5 very good FF seasons but was not a top pick. Part of his success due to system.
Terrell Davis - career shortened by injury.
Tiki Barber - Great player but limited by RBBC during earlier career.
There are a few active players who could have careers with 5 high level seasons like these above such as Ray Rice, MJD, Charles, Chris Johnson, Spiller... but I still do not consider them in that same level of the elite sure thing players I listed above.
The list is a bit longer of players who can manage to string together 2-3 seasons of top 12 performance but if you ever pay that price for the player you are taking odds in favor of not getting that return on your investment. Because at least one of those seasons is already expired.
So how do you value a player such as Alfred Morris or Doug Martin compared to Richardson? I don't think they are the same value at all but not because Morris is older.
As far as 3 years is concerned. Never been a strict window per say as I do look at as many different things that I think are useful in evaluating a players value. However for a lot of reasons 3 years is a good time frame for looking backward as well as forward. Projecting out further than one season is hard and it gets more difficult for each year after that. There are few sure things. Richardson is about as close to a safe bet long term in my opinion as well, but there are not many players I consider at that level. Including Doug Martin who I also really like. I am just not willing to predict that Doug Martin is going to have 4 more top 12 FF seasons. I think Richardson will. One of the few players I would be willing to bet will.
This of course has nothing to do with using a system to compare relative VBD over multiple seasons which must have some boundary/limits to define the projections, nor does that have to be the only thing used when creating rankings.
Since 1992 here is my short list of players I would consider to be elite performers able to string together more than 2 or 3 VBD significant seasons -
Marshall Faulk
Edgerrin James
Steven Jackson
LaDainian Tomlinson
Adrian Peterson
Trent Richardson
Richardson has not done enough to deserve being put on the same list as these guys. But of any RB out there I think he is the one who could earn it.
Some honorable mentions but not quite elite imho-
Curtis Martin - HoF player. To me Martin was more of a lunch pail RB though. Nothing really special about him just tough and well rounded player who enjoyed a long career of success.
Shaun Alexander - 5 very good FF seasons. Was not good enough to take the starting job from Waters limited him. I don't consider him elite but he did perform at that level in FF
Clinton Portis - 5 very good FF seasons but was not a top pick. Part of his success due to system.
Terrell Davis - career shortened by injury.
Tiki Barber - Great player but limited by RBBC during earlier career.
There are a few active players who could have careers with 5 high level seasons like these above such as Ray Rice, MJD, Charles, Chris Johnson, Spiller... but I still do not consider them in that same level of the elite sure thing players I listed above.
The list is a bit longer of players who can manage to string together 2-3 seasons of top 12 performance but if you ever pay that price for the player you are taking odds in favor of not getting that return on your investment. Because at least one of those seasons is already expired.
So how do you value a player such as Alfred Morris or Doug Martin compared to Richardson? I don't think they are the same value at all but not because Morris is older.
As far as 3 years is concerned. Never been a strict window per say as I do look at as many different things that I think are useful in evaluating a players value. However for a lot of reasons 3 years is a good time frame for looking backward as well as forward. Projecting out further than one season is hard and it gets more difficult for each year after that. There are few sure things. Richardson is about as close to a safe bet long term in my opinion as well, but there are not many players I consider at that level. Including Doug Martin who I also really like. I am just not willing to predict that Doug Martin is going to have 4 more top 12 FF seasons. I think Richardson will. One of the few players I would be willing to bet will.
This of course has nothing to do with using a system to compare relative VBD over multiple seasons which must have some boundary/limits to define the projections, nor does that have to be the only thing used when creating rankings.
Chad Parsons
Moderator
Love looking at moments in time like this
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
What would you put Reggie Wayne 's value in terms of draft picks?
pghrob
Hail to the Chief
I have to think Priest Holmes not being on the short list was inadvertent oversight.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well it was late when I wrote that. Priest and Jamal Lewis would be close but I had issues with both as well. Priest did not win the job in Baltimore and Lewis struggled with injuries. But they were definitely top RB as well in the same tier as Alexander, Portis, Barber ect. For 20 seasons there were 240 top 12 finishes. But very few managed as many as 5 of them in their career is the main point I was trying to make with that.
Holmes only finished top 12 3 times in his career. He finished 1st overall twice and 2nd overall once. You had a very good chance to win in those 3 years with Priest for sure. In 2 other seasons he gave RB2 numbers. Even with Priest projecting him for more than 3 seasons at his top level would have caused you to overvalue him. He was age 28-30 when he had those great seasons and a 1st round pick Larry Johnson (who had 2 top 2 finishes) to hold off while having his best seasons. These 2 things caused him to be undervalued at the time. The 1st 4 seasons for Priest he did not finish higher than 15th RB because he was blocked by Lewis limiting the overall value of his career.
EBF
Footballguy
Elite players are definitely rare. They're not the only guys with longevity though. I think all NFL RBs can be broken down into four basic categories: Elite Starters - These players are at the very top of their position. They can hold down a starting job and play at a Pro Bowl level for years. They're so good that their team recognizes their rare value and extends their contract rather than risk losing them. Their first team only lets them walk after they're past their prime. Examples: Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson Starters - These players are bad enough to lose a starting job, but good enough to win another one. They're never quite at the top of the game, but they still have a rare level of talent that creates opportunities for them. Examples: Thomas Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Willis McGahee, Cedric Benson, Reggie Bush, Marshawn Lynch Mediocrities - These players will pop up on the radar from time to time if their situation is favorable, but they lack the talent to last in the NFL and will be nudged aside quickly if they happen to stumble upon a starting role. Examples: Steve Slaton, Vick Ballard, Tashard Choice, Ryan Grant, Donald Brown, Kevin Smith Fodder - Career backups and training camp scrubs. Unlikely to hold any value at any point in their careers. I don't think average career length statistics are very helpful when talking about the longevity potential of players in the first two groups. IMO those players are likely to remain relevant up until around the ages of 30-32 if their bodies hold up reasonably well. They're too good to be permanently displaced. The primary difference is that the first group will be more productive and much less prone to bumps in the road. With the elite starters, you get years of steady production interrupted only by injury. With the mere starters, they're liable to post a bad season here and there, get displaced by a superior talent, or be discarded by their initial team. They require a little more patience for this reason. If you look at guys like Bush, Benson, T Jones, McGahee, or Lynch, they all had moments in their careers when things looked grim for them. Their solid talent ultimately got them back on track, but for their dynasty owners it was more of a rocky marriage than a dream scenario. More bumps in the road. Players from the final two groups have very little dynasty value. A common mistake people make is paying big for a young mediocrity like Vick Ballard, Steve Slaton, Julius Jones, and Kevan Barlow because they have "years of good production" left in the tank. The problem with mediocrities is that they have very suspect longevity regardless of how young they are. Their talent is so marginal that they can be displaced by almost any draft pick or free agent signing. So while a guy like Vick Ballard might have some redraft value, I would be very reluctant to commit any funds to him in a dynasty format because I don't think he's a starting caliber talent long term. Of course, part of the challenge is correctly identifying what you're looking at. Consider a group of players like Shonn Greene, Ryan Mathews, Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, and LeGarrette Blount. I don't think there would be a unanimous opinion on where to slot them in. Everyone knows that Adrian Peterson is a star and Rashad Jennings is a scrub, but it's not always so cut-and-dried. The borderline guys are harder to decipher. If you can consistently make the right assessments, you'll be able to exploit some market inefficiencies caused by the uncertainty.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
I like to think the same about Steven Jackson making the short list. Here's his season-ending rankings in non-PPR: 33rd, 11th, 3rd, 14th, 13th, 10th, 14th, 11th, 16th. Injuries played some part in it, and the woefulness of his team played a much larger part, but for all intents and purposes, Steven Jackson was not an elite fantasy asset. Priest Holmes produced 200 more VBD, as did Clinton Portis. Shaun Alexander and Tiki Barber produced 250-300 more. Steven Jackson's career VBD to date pretty closely resembles Ricky Williams' and Maurice Jones-Drew's, and is just a little ahead of Brian Westbrook. Yes, Jackson's longevity and consistency has been impressive, but if you're going to discount Curtis Martin (who had nearly twice as much career VBD and a whopping SEVEN finishes of 8th or better), then I don't see how you could include Steven Jackson (two top-10 finishes, one 8th or better).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
You are correct and it is hard for me to not put Curtis Martin in the elite category. I have not really defined that well. I put Jackson in that category because of his consistency and physical ability that I see being greater than most other RB in the league. The low number of TD over his career being the main thing that holds him back from performing as highly in terms of VBD over his career. I think that has more to do with the Rams than it does Jackson. You put Jackson into Curtis Martins situation and I think Jackson would have outperformed him. They played in different eras as well. Well Parcells+Martin = different era lol. Martin played most of his career in for a coach that was still very much run oriented. Jackson has played more recently as the league has been shifting to more of a passing league. If you would like to more clearly define that I am open to restructuring the criteria. The main point I am trying to get across however is that not many RB have more than 3 good VBD seasons in their career. Most do not even accomplish that. Perhaps the thing to do would be to look at those 20 seasons, the top 240 RB and find what their average VBD number was. Then look for all players who had 3 or more seasons above that average. By that criteria I am not sure if Jackson makes the list as most of his seasons have been as a low RB1 ranked in double digits. The reason I consider Jackson as elite is due to his consistency and because of his overall ability as a receiver and a runner. His career is nearing it's end so situation will not favor him although I think he is in the best situation right now as he has ever had and I do think he will score more TD than he has averaged so far in his career this season, possibly next as well. The point of looking at this would be to see what are a RBs real chances to become elite? For how long can you expect a player to maintain that dominance? I think by looking at it from this perspective you may find that you and others are overvaluing RB by expecting them to have more than 2-3 good seasons. Because most will not. Even the best of the best RB have a hard time producing more than 2-3 great seasons over their career. So why value them as if they will produce 5-8 years of that level of productivity?
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Donsmith753
Footballguy
What's the view on Hakeem Nicks? I feel uncomfortable with him outside of my top 7-10 (where he sits currently) but its been a number of weeks since he's been 100% and performing.
I've been trying to use him as a piece to move up to a Bryant / Julio type talent but no luck yet.
I've been trying to use him as a piece to move up to a Bryant / Julio type talent but no luck yet.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
His value is so low I'm not surprised you can't move him for a top WR. To me he seems like the type of guy that has all these injury problems early in his career causing many to write him off, but at some point he'll figure it out and those that stick with him will be rewarded. Holding, or trying to acquire if the price is low enough.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
I'm in a fortunate position that I'm very strong at the position so in no hurry to dump him.I haven't seen him outside the top 10 of many rankings but as you say, his actual trade value right now is terrible.
Dez
Footballguy
In startups at this exact time 1 year ago he was highly regarded as the #2 dynasty WR and being selected inside the top 10 overall ahead of the likes of AJ Green and Julio Jones. His stock has fallen fast and in the 2 leagues I have him I am going to hope he stays healthy and regains top 5 form. Very undervalued this year in my opinion.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Between Eifert, Ertz, Escobar and Kelce you had four or the top 65 picks being TEs. I think while everyone is spending 2nd round rookie picks on 4th round (or undrafted) wideouts, the smart move might be to zig when they zag and grab a TE or two.
What are some thoughts on these guys? While everyone is clamoring for Zac Stacy and Da'rick Rodgers, they are letting top 50 picks slide right on past them. I was not impressed with this class at all as far as the QB, RB, and WR class went. I thought they all lacked star power and I think NFL drafting results showed a similar sentiment.
Not so with the TE's though. We had Eifert "fall" to the Bengals where he's in a "bad" situation because they have Gresham? That doesn't pass the sniff test at all. I think he puts Gresham in the rear view this season. I think he's going to be better than Fleener and might actually be another Witten.
Ertz went before any running backs went off the board. Only 4 wideouts went off before him, and three were within 8 picks of him. He goes to a new and unknown system but still. He can be had ROUNDs after players that were selected several rounds after him. Kelce was selected right behind Eddie Lacy and before Keenan Allen. But he can be had way later.
What are some thoughts on these guys? While everyone is clamoring for Zac Stacy and Da'rick Rodgers, they are letting top 50 picks slide right on past them. I was not impressed with this class at all as far as the QB, RB, and WR class went. I thought they all lacked star power and I think NFL drafting results showed a similar sentiment.
Not so with the TE's though. We had Eifert "fall" to the Bengals where he's in a "bad" situation because they have Gresham? That doesn't pass the sniff test at all. I think he puts Gresham in the rear view this season. I think he's going to be better than Fleener and might actually be another Witten.
Ertz went before any running backs went off the board. Only 4 wideouts went off before him, and three were within 8 picks of him. He goes to a new and unknown system but still. He can be had ROUNDs after players that were selected several rounds after him. Kelce was selected right behind Eddie Lacy and before Keenan Allen. But he can be had way later.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Kelce has top-8 talent at TE right now. I really believe that. How long it will take him to harness that, or if he ever does, I won't pretend to know. But he's incredibly talented. He's up there with Eifert in a lot of ways.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
And of course you missed one - McDonald. All 5 have TE1 upside. The wait on Escobar and McDonald is pretty prohibitive. It's an indication both will be running a lot of 2TE sets so both could be emergency depth short term.
Whether Eifert puts Gresham in the backseat is kind of immaterial. Both TEs will play. Both's upside is affected. Sanu and Jones' upside is affected. He can "beat" Gresham and still not be that useful. Barring trade you're still waiting til 2015.
More teams are going to use 2TE sets. Works for NE, copycat league, let's go. But it might mean TE production is further diluted. Teams like SF and CIN had trouble making 1 TE useful, how are they going to make 2.
Makes Kelce interesting. Granted they have Fasano and Moeaki. But he has a chance to be the only noteworthy receiving TE and the 2nd target on the team. Also Reed, Wilson, and Gragg as later round fliers.
Exit value is a valid question. If you take Escobar or McDonald late, how long until he improves your team, how long before he has value in trade to use to improve your team. The upside TE market is a weak market.
EBF
Footballguy
I think Eifert is the only complete player in the group. He's the only one who has everything. Hands. Production. Fluid movement skills. Measured speed/explosiveness.
With the others, you sacrifice at least one of those things. Kelce isn't a fluid mover. Ertz doesn't have the workout numbers. McDonald has spotty hands and production. '
Escobar reminds me a lot of Eifert in build and style, but he's a less athletic version of the same thing. Inferior combine numbers across the board. That's the difference between going mid 1st and mid 2nd.
I rate Eifert as the clear #1 TE in the draft and the #4 overall dynasty TE out of the box. The others lag behind. I wouldn't draft Ertz at his ADP. Kelce, Escobar, and McDonald are good values relative to what you have to pay to get them.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I see Kelce and Ertz going after guys drafted 3 or 4 rounds later than they were. Heck they are going later undrafted guys.
Only Eifert (by me to pair with Gronk) was selected in a recent draft I participated in. The rest sit on the wire but I can't bring myself to cut Hilton or Reuben Randle for them.
Only Eifert (by me to pair with Gronk) was selected in a recent draft I participated in. The rest sit on the wire but I can't bring myself to cut Hilton or Reuben Randle for them.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Where would you slot Pitta or Myers amongst the rookie tight ends in a dynasty? I have Gonzo, Pitta and Dreesen. I don't pick until 29th. Would it be worthwhile to load up with a Kelce or Ertz at that point? I wont really need them this year and doubt Eifert slides.
Brandon Myers is unrostered as well and I find him very intriguing.
Brandon Myers is unrostered as well and I find him very intriguing.
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Donsmith753
Footballguy
I think Pitta is behind Eifert but above all the others.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Seven out of eleven staffers have him outside of their top 10, including this one right here. I've got him at 12th. I know that a year or two ago he was super-high, but to quote Nicholas Cage from "The Rock"... kind of a lot has changed since then. Over the last year, we've seen five WRs aged 25 or younger top 1300 yards in their last 16 games (Dez, Demaryius, Green, Julio, Harvin). Several others (Crabtree, Blackmon, Shorts) have equally eye-popping numbers, if you play around a bit with pro-rating. Marshall and Jackson have both announced their resurgence with authority. Calvin made a run at 2,000. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have gone from #4 or #5 WRs to the top dog on one of the league's best passing offenses. Add in the explosion of Nicks' sidekick and the lingering presence of Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson and the WR field got a whole lot deeper in the intervening years. Even if Nicks' value hadn't declined, his rank would have just from so many people passing him.
I'm on board with this in a big way. As my rankings demonstrate, I love me some rookie TEs this year.
ZWK
Footballguy
4 mid-round receivers who seem to be underrated (based on the FBG staff rankings):
33 Kenny Britt. Before his injury, most people seemed to think he had finally arrived. And with good reason - over the previous 5 games, he'd averaged over 100 yards and 1 TD per game, with 12+ fantasy points in every game (non-ppr). One year out with an ACL injury, and one mediocre season while still recovering, and that Dez Bryant level upside has faded from people's minds. His knucklehead risk and mediocre knee-healing abilities should not drop him this far.
34 Danny Amendola. You can't just assume that he'll come right in and pick up where Welker left off. But >50% chance that he'll at least come close. And Wes Welker has been a consistent 110+ catch guy (1 ACL recovery year excepted), finishing around WR12 (non-ppr) pretty much every season, just like Marques Colston (FBG WR20). Amendola has some injury risk, but so does Colston.
41 Cecil Shorts. He made a ton of big plays last year, at a Victor Cruz level where any individual play might seem fluky, but the fact that he keeps doing it shows that he's a playmaker. Top 10 fantasy receiver over the second half of the season. Some concussion risk, but not enough to put him this low.
42 Michael Floyd. Profiles a lot like DeAndre Hopkins - first round talent, stuck as his team's #2 across from an elite WR, and without an elite passing offense. His situation is slightly worse than Hopkins's in a few ways (Fitz a bit younger than Andre, Schaub a bit better than Palmer), but he also had a better reputation than Hopkins coming into the league. His rookie year wasn't special, but he won a bigger role over the course of the season and was a major part of Arizona's (then woeful, Lindley-led) passing attack by the end of the year and finished with almost as many yards as Kendall Wright. Led the post-bye Cardinals in every receiving category, thanks to a big week 17. Seemed good enough to stay in place in the rankings, especially with the upgrades in Arizona this offseason.
33 Kenny Britt. Before his injury, most people seemed to think he had finally arrived. And with good reason - over the previous 5 games, he'd averaged over 100 yards and 1 TD per game, with 12+ fantasy points in every game (non-ppr). One year out with an ACL injury, and one mediocre season while still recovering, and that Dez Bryant level upside has faded from people's minds. His knucklehead risk and mediocre knee-healing abilities should not drop him this far.
34 Danny Amendola. You can't just assume that he'll come right in and pick up where Welker left off. But >50% chance that he'll at least come close. And Wes Welker has been a consistent 110+ catch guy (1 ACL recovery year excepted), finishing around WR12 (non-ppr) pretty much every season, just like Marques Colston (FBG WR20). Amendola has some injury risk, but so does Colston.
41 Cecil Shorts. He made a ton of big plays last year, at a Victor Cruz level where any individual play might seem fluky, but the fact that he keeps doing it shows that he's a playmaker. Top 10 fantasy receiver over the second half of the season. Some concussion risk, but not enough to put him this low.
42 Michael Floyd. Profiles a lot like DeAndre Hopkins - first round talent, stuck as his team's #2 across from an elite WR, and without an elite passing offense. His situation is slightly worse than Hopkins's in a few ways (Fitz a bit younger than Andre, Schaub a bit better than Palmer), but he also had a better reputation than Hopkins coming into the league. His rookie year wasn't special, but he won a bigger role over the course of the season and was a major part of Arizona's (then woeful, Lindley-led) passing attack by the end of the year and finished with almost as many yards as Kendall Wright. Led the post-bye Cardinals in every receiving category, thanks to a big week 17. Seemed good enough to stay in place in the rankings, especially with the upgrades in Arizona this offseason.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
In dynasty, guys with risk are rated lower.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I see the argument for the latter 3...although they are all ranked about where I have them, but Britt? No. With two WR's drafted in the top 40 the last two years it's clear the Titans want to move on from him at season's end. Will a good team take a chance on him in the offseason? Who knows, maybe. He could also have burned so many bridges that he must resort to the dredges of the NFL. No denying the phsyical ability, but in the end he's entering season 5 in the NFL and all he's done is flash potential to this point. if he were legit he likely would have done more than that. Personally, I think 33 is way too high. I understand why he's ranked there, but I wouldn't do it.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Ok, let's talk about risk vs upside. On one hand you have a 25 year old who exploded onto the scene in his 2nd year (out of a small school no less) and looked dangerous pretty much all the time. On the other hand:17 WR Torrey Smith, BAL (never caught more than 50 balls, Shorts had 47 in last nine games)
22 WR Antonio Brown, PIT (seven TDs in three years/141 catches - Shorts had 7 on first 57 recs)
23 WR Justin Blackmon, JAX (Robinson, Koren)
24 WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI (Shorts had more yards last year than Maclin has ever had in a season)
25 WR Greg Jennings, MIN (Christian Ponder)
26 WR Wes Welker, DEN (32 year old system player in a new system)
28 WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (unproven rookie -- though I like him)
30 WR Josh Gordon, CLE (unproven player, terrible QB play, history with pot)
31 WR Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN (unproven player, Christian Ponder, doubts about WR skill)
33 WR Kenny Britt, TEN (is it 50 days since last arrest yet?)
34 WR Danny Amendola, NE (injury concerns)
37 WR DeSean Jackson, PHI (103-1661-6 -- in last two years)
38 WR Mike Williams, TB (no upside)
39 WR Reggie Wayne, IND (35 years old)
40 WR Kendall Wright, TEN (terrible Y/C most likely kiss of death)
I'd probably take Shorts ahead of some guys not on this list as well, but IMO ranking him 41 on account of 'risk' is just plain silly given the landmines above. He's a 25 year old currently projected inside the top 25/30 for 2013 and unlike most of the guys ahead of him he's already shown he can produce in a bad situation.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Comments above. I'll add Crabtree (team dependent), Tavon Austin, Garcon, Justin Hunter, and the trio of San Diego WR's to the pool. I don't know which of the 3 San Diego WR's are going to stay intact, but whichever one (or two?) does will out produce Shorts.Kinda like the argument I've been having with Hartline, it's about upside. Do you see Shorts as anything more than a good WR3? In the interim, no. Long term, maybe. But I think there are other guys here with even higher ceilings. Given the depth of the WR pool I'm more willing to throw more darts at riskier players expecting one or two to stick. There's alsoa great class on the way, so if your guys flame out reinforcements are waiting.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Shorts is legit. The injury red flags are real, but so is the talent. WIthout the injury concerns, I'd have him in the top 14-16, personally. WIth them, I like him as a low end WR2.
JPeso
Footballguy
Right. I don't want top 25/30 stats if that's close to the upside. I'll take 25/40 stats with potential for top 10. Upside of which is all opinion. Shorts is certainly more valuable than several of the players ranked ahead, above though, I just don't have an issue with the number ranking.
JPeso
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I've got him in a tier, but haven't nailed him down to a specific ranking. Depending on my team needs, I'd take different guys in that tier. 18-24 range and next to guys like Brown, Garcon, Decker (still a fan); behind Austin and Patterson, but ahead of Hopkins and rest of this rookie WR class. Ahead of guys like Jennings and Austin.
ETA: If I am drafting as my WR2, I'm more likely to take safer options. If I am drafting as my WR3, he'd likely be my top guy in the tier.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
You're way off on Britt IMO Mac. The only legit knock on him are the injury questions.First, he has done way more than flash potential. He played in 15 games in 2010 / 2011 and put up 1064 / 12 -- that's fantasy WR1 production over enough of a sample size that his ability is certainly legit. And he did that as a raw 2nd and 3rd year player, in a run first system, and with assorted trash like Vince Young and old Kerry Collins at QB.You're also reading way too much into the Titans' WR picks the past two years. Teams need 3+ WRs in today's NFL. Also, as a Britt owner, I'll be thrilled if they do move on from Britt. Jake Locker vs the field as Britt's QB? Yes please.Finally, why do you care if he's a moron / criminal / whatever off the field? The NFL certainly doesn't. At all. You can kill someone, deal drugs, do federal time, beat your wife, have an unlicensed gun go off in a nightclub, rape a few women, etc and still find a job in the league if you can play. The list of guys with extensive criminal histories currently in the league is too long to even begin to list. The next player to be black-balled strictly for off field issues will be the first. Ever. The NFL is a business, good players help teams win, and that makes the money for everyone. Period, end of story.Now the multiple injuries? Sure, worth a downgrade. Particularly when paired with a likely lack of a strong work ethic rehabbing the knee. But Britt is playing for his only likely shot at big money this year, so I'm guessing he'll put a little more into this offseason than he would have otherwise. He'd be a top 10ish WR with a clean bill of health -- pushing down into WR 4/5 territory is way too low given what we've seen modern medicine accomplish the last few years.
MAC_32
Footballguy
This is an important note. I think I'm in the minority in how I construct my team, but there are some teams I won't consider rostering Shorts
i.e. one dyno I have Fitz, Nicks, Wayne, Gordon, and V Brown. On this team I think he is my 5th or 6th WR, I'm not too interested in rostering him on this team. He is just unnecessary depth. I would rather use my assets to pursue upgrading weaker positions. Now if I move one of these WR's to upgrade other positions then Shrots becomes a viable option.
but there are other rosters in which he makes a ton of sense
i.e. other dyno I have Andre Johnson, Percy, E Sanders, then nothing (we only start 2 WR + a flex)...but I have Marquise Lee and Sammy Watkins on a taxi squad ready to promote next year. I have a list of trade targets this offseason to upgrade WR3/depth and Shorts is definitely on that list.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Couldn't disagree more. Players can be morons off the field as long as they're not morons on it too. I think Britt may be both, which is why he's only flashed to this point. At this point in their career if a player is going to piece it together he likely would have. Britt hasn't. His regression in 2012 shows that. The likelihood of him getting it decreases with each passing year. For every Dez Bryant 2012 there are ten Antonio Bryant 2009's. I'd rather gamble on a health risk than the mental risk at this point in a player's career. Give me the San Diego trio before Britt.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
How is Shorts upside not inside the top-20? He was effectively top-10 in his only nine starts to date. I realize it's a small sample size and, absent any other information, you have to ding him some for that. And I get that it was a perfect storm for him in some ways last year, but his upside is clearly better than WR3. He's already done that -- in his only sustained NFL action so far.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Or maybe his regression in 2012 is because not everyone is bionic superman like ADP coming off of a blown out knee? Even Wes Welker, who is about as far from Britt character-wise as is possible, was a shell of his former self the first year back from his knee injury. And could a moron on the field really do what Britt did in 2010 / 11? I get that Britt isn't a real likable dude, but I really think you're missing the boat re: what he's actually done on the field when he's been at 100% -- 1046 / 12 in less than a full season is really really good given the situation he was in. Agree to disagree I suppose...
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't think his ceiling is as high as any of
Calvin
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Demaryius
Dez
Marshall
Fitz
Cruz
Nicks
Cobb
Jordy
Andre
Roddy
Harvin
Wallace
V Jacks
Gordon
T Austin
Bowe
Crabtree
Torrey Smith
Blackmon
Garcon
J Hunter
Patterson
Floyd
DX
Keenan Allen
I also don't think he's a better bet this year than
Jennings
Welker
Colston
DeSean
Stevie Johnson
Wayne
Amendola
Boldin
There are also some in the same bucket as Shorts I have more faith in. Vincent Brown, Antonio Brown, and Kendall Wright stick out. Don't feel strongly about those cases, they're in the same tier for me, but add them all up and I'm having a hard time seeing top 20. At least until Jacksonville has a real QB.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Britt's issues last year on the field were primarily mental from what I saw. Admittedly didn't watch every game, but the reports from the games I didn't watch were similar to the ones I did. Not so rosy comments from coaches too. Inconsistent effort, routes, hands, focus, drops...all the usual issues. Add them up and it just doesn't paint a pretty picture. Every talented player has value at a certain point, but given the depth at WR Britt's is not in the top 40.
Tau837
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I agree with this. In my mind there's no reason why Shorts should be rated behind guys like Torrey, Brown, and Maclin. He might not be a top 10 superstar, but neither are any of them. Is there a more overrated dynasty receiver than Maclin? The guy has never cracked 1000 yards in four seasons, and has only exceeded 900 once. Shorts beat his career best last year in his first season of real playing time.
The "upside" argument is only valuable to a point. If you're constantly chasing the height/weight/speed numbers you're going to miss out on players like Keenan McCardell, Donald Driver, and Derrick Mason who have tremendous careers without ever being a top of the heap superstar. That's approximately the kind of player that I think Shorts has the potential to become.
I've got Shorts at WR19 in my most recent dynasty rankings. I think that's a good compromise considering all of the variables. The injury issues are a concern and he's not an overwhelming athlete on paper, but anyone who thinks he doesn't have upside must not have been paying attention last season. Maybe you had to own him to realize how good he was. Money in the bank almost every week.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Chase has been on fire lately with some great articles.I get what he's doing here too, but draft position for truly small school players just isn't the same as it is for other guys. If you're coming out of a DIII school and get yourself drafted in the 4th round it's a feather in your cap, not a ding against you.
