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If things remained as they currently are in perpetuity, I would agree that the WR2 job in Dallas is a premium spot for fantasy. I'm just much less confident that it will remain such a plush job with the Cowboys already $31 million over next year's cap. That's definitely a team with the potential to go really bad, really fast.Concept Coop said:
It will be interesting - that's for sure. Miles is the only obvious cut on offense, with Free playing much better, off the top of my head. Not sure how they're going to account for the rest.
I guess we disagree on what constitutes high upside. Shorts is #2 in the NFL in targets this year and he's WR19 in ppr scoring. This is his upside.
Why would this be his upside, and not last season? He's on one of the worst situations in the league, for a WR. I don't understand suggesting this is as good as it gets for him.
If we were playing with Peyton Manning, sure his per target efficiency would probably be higher. But his # of targets would also come down. He also benefited from Blackmon being out for the first 4 games, at least in terms of targets.
He was a top 10 caliber WR in 2011. That is 1.5 seasons ago. He finished just outside the top 10 in the regular season but had 28/444/4 receiving in 4 postseason games.Concept Coop said:
If we're going to nitpick, years: >1; 1.5 >1; 1.5 = years.
Buy low, and hope he gets some serious help during his time off. Alcoholism is tough, but tons of people beat it.
I never said that Alshon Jeffery was lower-upside than the other two. I never said anything at all about his upside. You asked me how I could rank Jeffery behind two low-upside guys, and I merely replied that I didn't.
If we're really going to nitpick, "Years" doesn't equal "greater than 1", it equals "2 or more". If I moved somewhere on January 1st, 2013, then I would not on January 2nd, 2014 say "I've lived here for years!", even though I had at that point lived there for longer than one single year. I wouldn't say it in February or March, either. Maybe by October or November I'd start rounding up, but in my mind that's what I'd be doing- explicitly rounding up to 2, because years = minimum of 2.
Blackmon is the perfect illustration of the difference between expectations and expected value. My EXPECTATIONS for Blackmon were sky-high. I thought the most likely outcome was that he turned into a dominant WR and an elite fantasy asset. At the same time, he was clearly a risky asset, and that risk had to be properly priced to determine an expected value.
IIRC, legality was irrelevant, and Blackmon was indeed in the substance abuse program for alcohol stemming from his DUIs.
The one thing about Blackmon is that, since his issues fall under the substance abuse policy rather than the personal conduct policy, there's no commissioner discretion when it comes to handing out punishments. Guys like Brandon Marshall, Kenny Britt, and Cedric Benson were able to repeatedly run afoul of the same policy with only minor missed time to show for it. If speculation that Blackmon is in stage 3 of the substance program is to be believed, then I believe Blackmon's already due a mandatory 1-year suspension, and every future misstep for the remainder of his entire career also carries with it a minimum 1-year vacation. I don't believe Goodell has the power to reduce it to 4 games for "good behavior" or anything.
I don't think we're told what a player is suspended, or placed in the program for. Am I wrong?
I think the story would be out, if he got another DUI. That's public record and it would have been sniffed out. Especially by now.
Sorry, but I think this is getting into Koren Robinson territory, he appears to have a problem with alcohol that he can not control. Anyone wants to buy low, be my guest - I wouldn't touch him in any league at this point. As I said in another thread after he was suspended for the first 4 games of this season.
squistion said:
Not unless he gets traded to the Bucs. Because Greg Schiano is a total **** who likes leaking confidential information.
The more I think about it - the more I am certain that it's not alcohol, unless it's another DUI. It's not on the banned substance list. I doubt they can legally enforce a 0 drop policy for something that's not on the list. They can't supersede their agreement with the NFPA, by amending individual contracts. It's not in the agreement, based on my skimming it.
What about a team gambling that he returns to full health and produces like he did in the past? If only takes one team to think he'll return to former glory. Look at the contract Sidney Rice signed.
I think he'll get a Dola-like deal that looks a lot bigger than it is, based on a low percentage of guaranteed money. But you're right: it only takes one team. I don't expect him to get WR1 money, but what do I know? We'll see.
but no, I am not trading him for peanuts because the off-the field issues have come true.
Just thinking out loud. Maybe you can actually contribute to the thread as I brought up two players closely ranked in FBG'S dynasty WR ranks a few days ago. Wondering how lower Blackmon falls than Hopkins at WR15
This is not a dynasty trade advice thread. These team specific questions do not belong here.
Not a team specific question. Didn't post a trade just a lineup and thinking out-loud again nothing wrong with that except you being that FBG internet "tough guy" I'm allowed to ask and compare Hopkins dynasty prospects to Blackmon's and that's what I'm asking.
Yes, and by a fair bit.
I can't see anyone parting with Hopkins for Blackmon, particularly since Hopkins has already impressed and has zero off-field problems. Honestly, if anyone's trying to move Blackmon, they need to be targeting WRs that owners might have soured on or are afraid will bust. Tavon Austin comes to mind, though even that's probably shooting high.
I wasn't trying to nitpick, I was trying to clarify that it really hasn't been very long since he was a top 10 caliber WR, contrary to the implication of your post. In the interim, he has had some injury issues and his offense/team has imploded, which partially explains why he hasn't looked as good since 2011. It's not a compelling excuse, but it mitigates his performance a bit. He is 25 years old. IMO he is going to get a big contract.
www.dynastyleaguefootball.com updates during the season, but they bury the "last updated date" so that you have to click through to each individual set of rankings to see if they're current or several months old. I've #####ed at them a couple of times about that on Twitter, and they say they're going to fix it this offseason.
Mine at DLF are updated weekly. The last updated date display is annoying. Didn't even realize that. I'll see if I can pull some strings.
Yeah, and Ryan updates a lot, too. Usually you guys have 3-4 rankings at any given time that are current enough to roll with.
You could certainly be right. We'll see. I wouldn't want my NFL team to give him big money, and I won't be targeting him. Two seasons in a row doesn't feel like "not very long ao" to me. The last time he looked good, for a solid stretch, Darren McFadden was a stud.I wasn't trying to nitpick, I was trying to clarify that it really hasn't been very long since he was a top 10 caliber WR, contrary to the implication of your post. In the interim, he has had some injury issues and his offense/team has imploded, which partially explains why he hasn't looked as good since 2011. It's not a compelling excuse, but it mitigates his performance a bit. He is 25 years old. IMO he is going to get a big contract.
That's meYeah, and Ryan updates a lot, too. Usually you guys have 3-4 rankings at any given time that are current enough to roll with.
I've tweeted Eric D about it a couple of times, and he told me it's on their offseason to-do list. I'll still poke a bit of fun at him about it from time to time, just because. If you could nag them into moving up the timeline, though, I wouldn't complain.
Do you have to submit your rankings to FantasyPros to get into the consensus, or are they supposed to be pulling them automatically? I noticed that your rankings were included in the offseason dynasty consensus, but they haven't added any updated rankings from any of the DLF guys since September. During the season about the only dynasty rankings they've been keeping current and including in the consensus have been the PFF guys. Not that I much mind, because I don't have a PFF fantasy membership, so I can basically just use FantasyPros to get a peek behind the curtain to see where their head's at.
Wait, I thought Jeter was Steve. Does Steve post over here, too, and if so what's his s/n?That's meYeah, and Ryan updates a lot, too. Usually you guys have 3-4 rankings at any given time that are current enough to roll with.
I've tweeted Eric D about it a couple of times, and he told me it's on their offseason to-do list. I'll still poke a bit of fun at him about it from time to time, just because. If you could nag them into moving up the timeline, though, I wouldn't complain.
Do you have to submit your rankings to FantasyPros to get into the consensus, or are they supposed to be pulling them automatically? I noticed that your rankings were included in the offseason dynasty consensus, but they haven't added any updated rankings from any of the DLF guys since September. During the season about the only dynasty rankings they've been keeping current and including in the consensus have been the PFF guys. Not that I much mind, because I don't have a PFF fantasy membership, so I can basically just use FantasyPros to get a peek behind the curtain to see where their head's at.
As far as Fantasy Pros, I assumed they would pull the updates, but I'll check with Eric on that.
PatoonsWait, I thought Jeter was Steve. Does Steve post over here, too, and if so what's his s/n?That's meYeah, and Ryan updates a lot, too. Usually you guys have 3-4 rankings at any given time that are current enough to roll with.
I've tweeted Eric D about it a couple of times, and he told me it's on their offseason to-do list. I'll still poke a bit of fun at him about it from time to time, just because. If you could nag them into moving up the timeline, though, I wouldn't complain.
Do you have to submit your rankings to FantasyPros to get into the consensus, or are they supposed to be pulling them automatically? I noticed that your rankings were included in the offseason dynasty consensus, but they haven't added any updated rankings from any of the DLF guys since September. During the season about the only dynasty rankings they've been keeping current and including in the consensus have been the PFF guys. Not that I much mind, because I don't have a PFF fantasy membership, so I can basically just use FantasyPros to get a peek behind the curtain to see where their head's at.
As far as Fantasy Pros, I assumed they would pull the updates, but I'll check with Eric on that.
