Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Recommended Posts

What if a 6'4" center had gorilla arms and didn't need to bend to touch his knees, 300 lbs. of chiseled muscle, a 54" VJ and could do a 720 dunk from the free throw line (not to say Austin is that kind of a mutant).

* Had not yet read post #21,179, which addressed this point in the same way.

The big point with Austin for me is that little guy + getting hit a lot of the over the middle probably = problem in the NFL. That's what inspired the 6'4" center comment. You have to wonder if such a severe deficiency will prevent him from achieving huge success. Obviously he can play in the league and have a role in the attack, but to be FF-relevant he will need to do more than that. He will need to make a big impact on offense. I would feel a lot better if he'd been a top 10 pick as a 6'3" 230 pound WR than a top 10 pick as a player with no historical equivalent. I know the Rams felt he was an elite prospect, but then again...Darrius Heyward-Bey...Ted Ginn...Troy Williamson...Peter Warrick. Draft position is something nice and objective to anchor to, but ultimately even first round picks are a coin flip. Not exactly odds you want to bet your house on.

I think Austin is better than guys like Ginn and Williamson. On the other hand, I don't know that he's going to get the ball enough in the long run to score enough points to be an impact player in FF. As I said previously, I've got no problem with a mid-low WR3 price though, which is where he's falling on generic dynasty rankings. There's upside at the price and you won't suffer too bad if he flops. On the other hand, I wouldn't go big for him like I would've for Blackmon pre-suspensions or Crabtree pre-NFL. Too much risk that he's just a faster Dexter McCluster.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 22.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • Fear & Loathing

    2096

  • Concept Coop

    1467

  • SSOG

    1403

  • EBF

    1210

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Brewtown, the other day I posted that you were the worst thing to happen to draft discussion here in a long time--within hours it had 7-8 likes. That should tell you something.

I've been a part of this thread almost from the beginning. I've learned a lot. I've made some friends. But...let's please keep the personal attacks to a minimum. It isn't fun. Tell me what you think

Good. It's settled then. I'll continue to disregard your "analysis" and you can ignore mine. I don't think anyone in this thread will miss these exchanges.

I feel like this has gone waaaaaaaaaaaaay off the rails, here. To bring it back, here is the original quote that sparked this whole rabbit trail:

Patterson and Hunter have the same thing in their favor. There are few enough receivers in the league whose college resumes were that thin. There are fewer still who were drafted in the top 40 picks. For NFL franchises to take a chance on them so high despite such a glaring concern, they must bring an awful lot to the table.

I think I interpreted the "thin resume" comment as a criticism of their production. All I was saying is that you can't produce when you're not on the field. One of the mistakes people make in FF is looking at players with bad or limited opportunity and punishing them for their lack of ideal performance without accounting for the context. Given that Hunter suffered a torn ACL and skipped his senior season, I don't think his production was bad.

But that seems to be exactly what you're trying to say, so that's that.

Yeah, I don't think it was that bad, either. Tennessee was something of a mess all around. He never really dominated the way that some WRs did, but I don't think he has to apologize for what he did. But guys like Hunter and Patterson are always going to represent heightened risk, because it's a lot easier to fool everyone over a tiny sample than it is over a huge sample.

Maybe we could use a pro player, and the same one, at different stages of his career, to illustrate the concept.

After a great rookie season, A.J. Green was a hot commodity. But after THREE great seasons, I'm guessing his dynasty rank is even higher than it was after his first year. Rookie A.J. Green's pro resume was thinner than historically good three year vet Green, so he didn't rank as high as his more experienced counterpart.

As to Hunter, an incomplete might not be an F, but it isn't an A either.

Of course somebody who plays more will probably be more productive than somebody who plays less. But there are ways to extract information from this and interpret this that aren't meaningless. Something that hasn't been highlighted about this is information about resiliency and durability. We can't assume anything about Hunter and a hypothetical senior year. Maybe he would have gotten 2,000 yards, maybe he would have torn his other ACL. That is the point, we have no idea, his junior year was the best he had to form an opinion of. Bailey had several.

Let's not forget that Hunter is a rail thin bean pole, not a prototypical build. Ideally we could have seen him play at a high level for 2-3 seasons to answer that question. But he didn't. Rather than call the fact that Bailey played more meaningless, we could point out that in Hunter's case, the missing pages in his resume equates to potential information about his resiliency and durability we DON'T possess, relative to a WR like Bailey. We shouldn't be so cavalier and dismissive about that. So, yeah, I'm not getting what is so hard to grasp about this point that less doesn't equal more.

That said, I like Hunter a lot, you may recall I was one of his staunchest defenders in his thread also after some people with hair triggers wanted to trade him when there was word that he might not suit up in the first week or two. If you liked him before in a dynasty league, people IMO shouldn't let a minor hiccup like that alter their long range vision. I'm guilty of holding players too long at times, but abandoning such a tantalizing prospect after 1-2 weeks was borderline incomprehensible to me.

This was a prospect about which Bloom said, at his best, Randy Moss was his closest comp (but at his worst was Braylon Edwards-like, or something to that effect :) ). He isn't just a linear long strider, he can break down in the open field and make people miss, he has natural open field run instincts (trying to say he isn't just a track athlete playing football, he is a football player that fortuitously has track star athleticism) and the explosiveness to smoke defenders once he is in the clear.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Olympic type speed and jumping ability....

I'm really done with the conversation, and apologize to the people that had to read it. But, because I'm petty, I just wanted to point out that saying something doesn't make it true. Look up the US Olympic track roster, their personal bests, and tell me where Hunter fits in. Via PM, because nobody else cares at this point.

As a junior in high school in 2009, Hunter won the state title in both the long jump, and high jump. As a senior in 2010, he won the state title in the long jump, high jump and triple jump. Hunter was the 2010 USA junior national champion in the long jump, and represented the USA at the 2010 IAAF World Junior Championships.[3] Hunter also specialized in the 100 meter and 200 meter.
He is a great athlete. He is a very good WR prospect.

He was one of the better long jumpers in the nation as a prep. He wasn't close to being one of the fastest sprinters in the nation in college. Not Olympic caliber speed. He is plenty fast with a personal best 10.5 100 m., you don't need to oversell him. But Usain Bolt set the world record in 2009 with a 9.58 100 m. Tyson Gay is the American record holder (and second fastest time ever) with a 9.69 100 m.

Your splitting hairs here. Six foot four with an ability to run faster and jump higher and farther than most of his athletic counterparts is the point here. He is an athletic freak.
The point is you said several times he has Olympic caliber speed. To say splitting hairs would be relevant if he was close, but he isn't.

If somebody says something in the thread you know to be false, do you blindly agree just to be pleasant? No? Why would you expect others to be different?

If you didn't know it was a gross exaggeration, the correction was intended to help (no disrespectful language like, oh, i don't know, jabroni :) ). If you knew it was a gross exaggeration and stated it anyways, don't be surprised to have it questioned. After the splitting hairs remark, you changed "the point" to the far lower bar of runs faster than most. If you had said that initially, it wouldn't have been questioned. Sorry for not understanding the point you "really meant" before saying it, and mistaking what you did say for something you actually meant, my bad.

* You are participating in a thread where hundredths of a second can be meaningful and impactful (4.40 different from 4.45 different from 4.49), and you are ignoring a difference of a HALF second to nearly a FULL second in the case of the top Olympians. The splitting hairs remark is good shtick.

My guess is that most Olympic athletes have a high school resume similar to Justin Hunter below. History of success (state championship, national championships etc)... He just decided to ditch the spandex and grab a helmet...

As a junior in high school in 2009, Hunter won the state title in both the long jump, and high jump. As a senior in 2010, he won the state title in the long jump, high jump and triple jump. Hunter was the 2010 USA junior national champion in the long jump, and represented the USA at the 2010 IAAF World Junior Championships.[3] Hunter also specialized in the 100 meter and 200 meter.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there a glitch in the matrix, you keep looping the second paragraph, we got it.

Back to splitting hairs? He wasn't a national champion in the 100 m. He was one of the top long jumpers as a prep. Even if he was a state champ in the 100 m. (and I don't think he was), the fallacy of that line of thinking is there are 50 states but a lot fewer Olympic berths. Not to mention, a sprinter's prime might be for close to a decade. That means for any given Summer Olympics after a four year interval (and it is obviously more complicated, former prep state champs could drop off and non-state champs could be late bloomers and surpass them in college, etc.), it isn't just a matter of being one of the top 6-8 fastest out of the 50 states... but every state champ in the past DECADE. So instead of making it through a top 50 gauntlet, it becomes a top 500 gauntlet (some sprinters may win more than one year, but that is a technicality that doesn't really put a dent in the enormity of the challenge), and the already long odds have become an order of magnitude worse.

Billionaires may have a similar resume of having become a millionaire before they were 30? But it is a lot different to flip that around and assume most 30 year old millionaires will become billionairs.

IMO, the profile of an Olympic-CALIBER sprinter is someone who probably flashed world class speed by college, if not sooner. Like Jeff Demps or Trindon Holliday. Hunter ran track in college, but as far as I know, 10.5 was his best. So maybe he could have improved on that somewhat, but that is just too far away to realistically think he could have shaved a half second off his time and become an Olympian. I think his best event was the long jump (also a 7'0" high jumper), and he was great, AS A PREP. He was not an elite college sprinter, let alone Olympic level. He is a gifted athlete, and may be one of the best at his position in the NFL. Why not leave it at that, rather than make him Jim Thorpe and Jesse Owens rolled into one.

Now if you want to talk legit Olympic caliber athlete, RGIII was on that path as a hurdler. IMO, he really was that good, if he had dedicated himself to track.

Link to post
Share on other sites

What's worse the semantical and philosophical argument (using far too many words :grad: ) about what constitutes a "thin" resume, Brewtown cutting and pasting the same irrelevant Wiki paragraph 10 times to "refute" opposition to his false statement or Brewtown thinking that monkeys follow eachother off a cliff (that misconception is assigned to lemmings, which are rodents).

At least Adam and EBF generally spread knowledge to the masses.

Personally I think Austin, Hunter and Patterson have some flaws, but all also possess some real nice upside. Right now Austin and Hunter seem to be the value buys as Patterson's price tag has skyrocketed recently - admittedly in a vacuum I'd prefer to own him over the other two though..

Edited by Dr. Octopus
Link to post
Share on other sites

Going back to the previous conversation about Patterson and his value--in two of my leagues I tried to move him for a top 2 pick (4 different owners/offers) and was shot down. Perhaps the early ADP returns aren't an accurate reflection of his value, likely due to sample size.

Link to post
Share on other sites

What if a 6'4" center had gorilla arms and didn't need to bend to touch his knees, 300 lbs. of chiseled muscle, a 54" VJ and could do a 720 dunk from the free throw line (not to say Austin is that kind of a mutant).

* Had not yet read post #21,179, which addressed this point in the same way.

The big point with Austin for me is that little guy + getting hit a lot of the over the middle probably = problem in the NFL. That's what inspired the 6'4" center comment. You have to wonder if such a severe deficiency will prevent him from achieving huge success. Obviously he can play in the league and have a role in the attack, but to be FF-relevant he will need to do more than that. He will need to make a big impact on offense. I would feel a lot better if he'd been a top 10 pick as a 6'3" 230 pound WR than a top 10 pick as a player with no historical equivalent. I know the Rams felt he was an elite prospect, but then again...Darrius Heyward-Bey...Ted Ginn...Troy Williamson...Peter Warrick. Draft position is something nice and objective to anchor to, but ultimately even first round picks are a coin flip. Not exactly odds you want to bet your house on.

I think Austin is better than guys like Ginn and Williamson. On the other hand, I don't know that he's going to get the ball enough in the long run to score enough points to be an impact player in FF. As I said previously, I've got no problem with a mid-low WR3 price though, which is where he's falling on generic dynasty rankings. There's upside at the price and you won't suffer too bad if he flops. On the other hand, I wouldn't go big for him like I would've for Blackmon pre-suspensions or Crabtree pre-NFL. Too much risk that he's just a faster Dexter McCluster.

Realistically, what do we view as the best-case scenario workload for Tavon Austin? I'm obviously an Austin supporter (relative to most others, at least), but I don't see him putting up Harvin-in-Minnesota numbers (112 catches + 51 rushes in his last 16 games). I think he'll get maybe 120 touches. Call it 90 receptions + 30 rushes. I think that's a nice, optimistic upside. It's also not a punishing workload by any stretch. Tiny Warrick Dunn and tiny Jamaal Charles have handled the ball nearly three times that much. Even Darren McFadden has doubled that total twice in his career. And the general consensus is that receptions are less violent than rushes, and Austin's style of play probably lends itself to fewer big hits.

My biggest concerns about Austin's size have to do with the things that he's just physically not capable of doing. He's never going to be a great red zone target. He just doesn't have the size for it. That hurts in fantasy when touchdowns are so crazily overweighted in player value. I'm not so much worried that he's not built to handle the beating of a position where, let's face it, even the biggest guys have very light workloads, and the majority of injuries and wear seemingly come down to body mechanics rather than the raw force of collisions.

I mean, Julian Edelman (26.9 BMI) logged 105 receptions this year, didn't he? I don't really recall all that much concern over whether he was built to handle the beating...

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

What if a 6'4" center had gorilla arms and didn't need to bend to touch his knees, 300 lbs. of chiseled muscle, a 54" VJ and could do a 720 dunk from the free throw line (not to say Austin is that kind of a mutant).

* Had not yet read post #21,179, which addressed this point in the same way.

The big point with Austin for me is that little guy + getting hit a lot of the over the middle probably = problem in the NFL. That's what inspired the 6'4" center comment. You have to wonder if such a severe deficiency will prevent him from achieving huge success. Obviously he can play in the league and have a role in the attack, but to be FF-relevant he will need to do more than that. He will need to make a big impact on offense. I would feel a lot better if he'd been a top 10 pick as a 6'3" 230 pound WR than a top 10 pick as a player with no historical equivalent. I know the Rams felt he was an elite prospect, but then again...Darrius Heyward-Bey...Ted Ginn...Troy Williamson...Peter Warrick. Draft position is something nice and objective to anchor to, but ultimately even first round picks are a coin flip. Not exactly odds you want to bet your house on.

I think Austin is better than guys like Ginn and Williamson. On the other hand, I don't know that he's going to get the ball enough in the long run to score enough points to be an impact player in FF. As I said previously, I've got no problem with a mid-low WR3 price though, which is where he's falling on generic dynasty rankings. There's upside at the price and you won't suffer too bad if he flops. On the other hand, I wouldn't go big for him like I would've for Blackmon pre-suspensions or Crabtree pre-NFL. Too much risk that he's just a faster Dexter McCluster.

Realistically, what do we view as the best-case scenario workload for Tavon Austin? I'm obviously an Austin supporter (relative to most others, at least), but I don't see him putting up Harvin-in-Minnesota numbers (112 catches + 51 rushes in his last 16 games). I think he'll get maybe 120 touches. Call it 90 receptions + 30 rushes. I think that's a nice, optimistic upside. It's also not a punishing workload by any stretch. Tiny Warrick Dunn and tiny Jamaal Charles have handled the ball nearly three times that much. Even Darren McFadden has doubled that total twice in his career. And the general consensus is that receptions are less violent than rushes, and Austin's style of play probably lends itself to fewer big hits.

My biggest concerns about Austin's size have to do with the things that he's just physically not capable of doing. He's never going to be a great red zone target. He just doesn't have the size for it. That hurts in fantasy when touchdowns are so crazily overweighted in player value. I'm not so much worried that he's not built to handle the beating of a position where, let's face it, even the biggest guys have very light workloads, and the majority of injuries and wear seemingly come down to body mechanics rather than the raw force of collisions.

I mean, Julian Edelman (26.9 BMI) logged 105 receptions this year, didn't he? I don't really recall all that much concern over whether he was built to handle the beating...

I think this is highly optimistic. I don't see the value in the comps to Dunn/Charles/DMC (although I appreciate the above that Austin is basically un-comp-able). A large portion of Austin's value comes as a returner, so I don't think this is a guy that will transition out of the return game and focus on offense. He had over 50 combined PR/KRs this year in 13 games. That figures to remain about 50-75 per season. If you add 90 receptions and 30 rushes, that's potentially ~200 touches for a mini-mite.

His usage early in the year was pretty bad, and I think it shows that just feeding him tons of short receptions isn't utilizing him very well. Basically, I think you're too high on receptions, despite his early season pro-rated receptions. 50-75 receptions, plus 30-40 runs, plus as many PR/KRs he can field is more likely his ideal usage.

Also Edelman has 2 inches and 25 pounds on him.

Link to post
Share on other sites

My guess is that most Olympic athletes have a high school resume similar to Justin Hunter below. History of success (state championship, national championships etc)... He just decided to ditch the spandex and grab a helmet...

My guess is that most Olympic athletes have elementary school resumes similar to mine. It's what happened since then that made them Olympians.

Saying Hunter ditched the spandex to grab a helmet is inaccurate. Hunter ran track in college, he just wasn't that great at it (relatively speaking, of course). He only had one national top-10 finish in his entire career (an 8th-place showing in the long jump). Calling Hunter "Olympic caliber" is a disservice to the freakish football players who legitimately dominated in track in the NCAA. RGIII graduated early and was an All-American Hurdler at the NCAA level essentially while he was still in high school. He was invited to Olympic trials and was a semifinalist for the 2008 team as a 17-year-old who had not yet hit his physical peak. Jeff Demps and Trindon Holliday both won NCAA championships in the 100m (and Demps added some in the 60m, too), despite spending half the year in "football shape". Both were also invited to Olympic trials. Holliday was a semifinalist in 2008, and Demps actually made the team (barely, but the slowest sprinter on the Olympic team is still an Olympic sprinter) in 2012. Lots of guys have run 4.2 forties despite being in football shape, such as Chris Johnson (4.24), Michael Bennett (4.13!), Champ Bailey (4.28), and Deion Sanders (4.27), Jacoby Ford (4.28), etc. These guys all absolutely smoke Hunter in the speed department, despite also strapping on a football helmet for a living. I'm not as familiar with long jump results, but I'm sure there are plenty of NFL players who handily best Hunter there, too- to say nothing of Olympians!

Justin Hunter's resume doesn't read like a potential Olympian who decided to go another route. It reads like a guy who was the fastest fish in a little pond but who wasn't able to keep up when the competition kicked up a notch. There's no shame in that- there are a lot of phenomenal football players whose story reads exactly the same. I'd imagine a huge percentage of football players made the All-State team in baseball, basketball, hockey, or some other sport in high school, simply because they were so athletically dominant at the high school level. It doesn't mean they could have gone pro in those other sports. There are rare athletes who could have reached the highest levels in two different sports, but Justin Hunter isn't one of them. He'll have to settle for just being among the top quartile of receivers athletically, instead.

Personally, as a Hunter owner, I'm far more interested in his ball skills than his 40 time, anyway. I already mentioned Vincent Jackson, who is not a burner in an absolute sense (although he's crazy fast for a guy his size), but good luck finding a better and more productive deep receiver over the last 5-6 years. My hope for Hunter is that he's the next Vincent Jackson, not the next Mike Wallace (4.33 forty).

Link to post
Share on other sites

His usage early in the year was pretty bad, and I think it shows that just feeding him tons of short receptions isn't utilizing him very well. Basically, I think you're too high on receptions, despite his early season pro-rated receptions. 50-75 receptions, plus 30-40 runs, plus as many PR/KRs he can field is more likely his ideal usage.

I think a lot of that is simply Tavon adjusting to the NFL game. Patterson was just as awkward and his YPR/YPT suppor that.

Link to post
Share on other sites

What if a 6'4" center had gorilla arms and didn't need to bend to touch his knees, 300 lbs. of chiseled muscle, a 54" VJ and could do a 720 dunk from the free throw line (not to say Austin is that kind of a mutant).

* Had not yet read post #21,179, which addressed this point in the same way.

The big point with Austin for me is that little guy + getting hit a lot of the over the middle probably = problem in the NFL. That's what inspired the 6'4" center comment. You have to wonder if such a severe deficiency will prevent him from achieving huge success. Obviously he can play in the league and have a role in the attack, but to be FF-relevant he will need to do more than that. He will need to make a big impact on offense. I would feel a lot better if he'd been a top 10 pick as a 6'3" 230 pound WR than a top 10 pick as a player with no historical equivalent. I know the Rams felt he was an elite prospect, but then again...Darrius Heyward-Bey...Ted Ginn...Troy Williamson...Peter Warrick. Draft position is something nice and objective to anchor to, but ultimately even first round picks are a coin flip. Not exactly odds you want to bet your house on.

I think Austin is better than guys like Ginn and Williamson. On the other hand, I don't know that he's going to get the ball enough in the long run to score enough points to be an impact player in FF. As I said previously, I've got no problem with a mid-low WR3 price though, which is where he's falling on generic dynasty rankings. There's upside at the price and you won't suffer too bad if he flops. On the other hand, I wouldn't go big for him like I would've for Blackmon pre-suspensions or Crabtree pre-NFL. Too much risk that he's just a faster Dexter McCluster.

Realistically, what do we view as the best-case scenario workload for Tavon Austin? I'm obviously an Austin supporter (relative to most others, at least), but I don't see him putting up Harvin-in-Minnesota numbers (112 catches + 51 rushes in his last 16 games). I think he'll get maybe 120 touches. Call it 90 receptions + 30 rushes. I think that's a nice, optimistic upside. It's also not a punishing workload by any stretch. Tiny Warrick Dunn and tiny Jamaal Charles have handled the ball nearly three times that much. Even Darren McFadden has doubled that total twice in his career. And the general consensus is that receptions are less violent than rushes, and Austin's style of play probably lends itself to fewer big hits.

My biggest concerns about Austin's size have to do with the things that he's just physically not capable of doing. He's never going to be a great red zone target. He just doesn't have the size for it. That hurts in fantasy when touchdowns are so crazily overweighted in player value. I'm not so much worried that he's not built to handle the beating of a position where, let's face it, even the biggest guys have very light workloads, and the majority of injuries and wear seemingly come down to body mechanics rather than the raw force of collisions.

I mean, Julian Edelman (26.9 BMI) logged 105 receptions this year, didn't he? I don't really recall all that much concern over whether he was built to handle the beating...

I think this is highly optimistic. I don't see the value in the comps to Dunn/Charles/DMC (although I appreciate the above that Austin is basically un-comp-able). A large portion of Austin's value comes as a returner, so I don't think this is a guy that will transition out of the return game and focus on offense. He had over 50 combined PR/KRs this year in 13 games. That figures to remain about 50-75 per season. If you add 90 receptions and 30 rushes, that's potentially ~200 touches for a mini-mite.

His usage early in the year was pretty bad, and I think it shows that just feeding him tons of short receptions isn't utilizing him very well. Basically, I think you're too high on receptions, despite his early season pro-rated receptions. 50-75 receptions, plus 30-40 runs, plus as many PR/KRs he can field is more likely his ideal usage.

Also Edelman has 2 inches and 25 pounds on him.

I agree that that's highly optimistic. That was the point- I was trying to think of what the absolute best-case scenario was for Austin, touches-wise, and I got 120. And I think he could handle that pretty easily. You make a good point about the kick and punt returns, although I will note that if Austin reaches his best case scenario offensively, he'll likely cede KR duties to someone else (there really isn't anyone who is heavily involved on offense and still returns both kicks AND punts- most guys give up one or both as they get worked more in on offense).

Edelman is 2 inches taller and 25 pounds heavier, but EBF's preferred measurement of player size is BMI, and both players have comparable BMIs (26.1 for Austin, 26.9 for Edelman).

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think the book is written yet on any of these three WRs yet.

-Patterson did pretty much what I thought he would. Showed good athleticism and return skills. His ability to become a good WR is still in doubt. I wouldn't touch him anywhere near his current ADP though.

-Austin disappointed compared to my expectations. I thought he'd make more plays than he did given his usage. That doesn't mean he won't make more going forward, I just expected better.

-Hunter was kind of mixed. I hoped he'd force his way on the field more than he did. However, he did make a number of huge plays in his limited exposure. One of the biggest questions about him coming out was his hands however, and I haven't seen anybody questioning them as of late.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there a glitch in the matrix, you keep looping the second paragraph, we got it.

Back to splitting hairs? He wasn't a national champion in the 100 m. He was one of the top long jumpers as a prep. Even if he was a state champ in the 100 m. (and I don't think he was), the fallacy of that line of thinking is there are 50 states but a lot fewer Olympic berths. Not to mention, a sprinter's prime might be for close to a decade. That means for any given Summer Olympics after a four year interval (and it is obviously more complicated, former prep state champs could drop off and non-state champs could be late bloomers and surpass them in college, etc.), it isn't just a matter of being one of the top 6-8 fastest out of the 50 states... but every state champ in the past DECADE. So instead of making it through a top 50 gauntlet, it becomes a top 500 gauntlet (some sprinters may win more than one year, but that is a technicality that doesn't really put a dent in the enormity of the challenge), and the already long odds have become an order of magnitude worse.

Billionaires may have a similar resume of having become a millionaire before they were 30? But it is a lot different to flip that around and assume most 30 year old millionaires will become billionairs.

IMO, the profile of an Olympic-CALIBER sprinter is someone who probably flashed world class speed by college, if not sooner. Like Jeff Demps or Trindon Holliday. Hunter ran track in college, but as far as I know, 10.5 was his best. So maybe he could have improved on that somewhat, but that is just too far away to realistically think he could have shaved a half second off his time and become an Olympian. I think his best event was the long jump (also a 7'0" high jumper), and he was great, AS A PREP. He was not an elite college sprinter, let alone Olympic level. He is a gifted athlete, and may be one of the best at his position in the NFL. Why not leave it at that, rather than make him Jim Thorpe and Jesse Owens rolled into one.

Now if you want to talk legit Olympic caliber athlete, RGIII was on that path as a hurdler. IMO, he really was that good, if he had dedicated himself to track.

Hunter was more of a jumper than a sprinter. I think his most impressive result was his 7'3" high jump. That's no joke. The USA record is "only" 7'10". You'd think with training and specific focus on the event, he might have been able to compete for an Olympic spot. He's also the Virginia record holder in the long jump. So while he's not an Olympic caliber athlete based on collegiate track results, he's still a freaky athlete with far greater explosiveness/springiness than even the average NFL player.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh, and if you're interested in the "fastest man in football" thing, there's an incoming JUCO recruit headed to Oklahoma State named Tyreek Hill who has been clocked at a wind-aided 9.98 in the 100m. He's a smurfy hybrid WR/RB type (not unlike Tavon Austin) who's actually pretty highly-regarded as a football player, so you can probably expect to see him in the NFL in another year or two.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Realistically, what do we view as the best-case scenario workload for Tavon Austin? I'm obviously an Austin supporter (relative to most others, at least), but I don't see him putting up Harvin-in-Minnesota numbers (112 catches + 51 rushes in his last 16 games). I think he'll get maybe 120 touches. Call it 90 receptions + 30 rushes. I think that's a nice, optimistic upside. It's also not a punishing workload by any stretch. Tiny Warrick Dunn and tiny Jamaal Charles have handled the ball nearly three times that much. Even Darren McFadden has doubled that total twice in his career. And the general consensus is that receptions are less violent than rushes, and Austin's style of play probably lends itself to fewer big hits.

The thing with Austin is that he's small in terms of frame type and also small in terms of stature. Darren McFadden is a beanpole, but because he's ~ 6'2" he still weighs something like 215 pounds. As I've said previously, it's clear that a taller version of the same body type will "play" bigger than a shorter version. Where you really see this is with some of the taller backs like Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson, who actually check in maybe slightly below average from a BMI standpoint despite being thought of as bigger, more powerful backs compared with the average runner.

I think if you want to look at success stories, Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles are two really skinny guys who have managed to survive a high workload. Johnson is a player that I cited when Austin was drafted because he was such an unusual and unprecedented guy when he came into the league. I could see that he had explosiveness, but the lack of similar players definitely slowed me down. Not unlike Austin in that regard. Things like this are the only reason why I didn't totally bury Austin in my rankings, because he's not a player who really passed the sniff test for me.

Warrick Dunn is an interesting player. If I can introduce some subjectivity into this, I don't think his body type was that different from any other scatback type of RB (i.e. Faulk, Westbrook, Sproles). We don't have his real listed height/weight because he came into the league so long ago that you can't find his combine measurements anywhere. Based purely on the eyeball test, I'd say he was pretty stocky and that he had relatively huge thighs (which is like a RB's engine). He was all lower body, and I think he looked/ran/played a lot more like 30 BMI guys such as Sproles/Westbrook than bean poles like McFadden or Charles. So he's not really a name that I buy in these debates, even if he looks like he belongs on paper.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there a glitch in the matrix, you keep looping the second paragraph, we got it.

Back to splitting hairs? He wasn't a national champion in the 100 m. He was one of the top long jumpers as a prep. Even if he was a state champ in the 100 m. (and I don't think he was), the fallacy of that line of thinking is there are 50 states but a lot fewer Olympic berths. Not to mention, a sprinter's prime might be for close to a decade. That means for any given Summer Olympics after a four year interval (and it is obviously more complicated, former prep state champs could drop off and non-state champs could be late bloomers and surpass them in college, etc.), it isn't just a matter of being one of the top 6-8 fastest out of the 50 states... but every state champ in the past DECADE. So instead of making it through a top 50 gauntlet, it becomes a top 500 gauntlet (some sprinters may win more than one year, but that is a technicality that doesn't really put a dent in the enormity of the challenge), and the already long odds have become an order of magnitude worse.

Billionaires may have a similar resume of having become a millionaire before they were 30? But it is a lot different to flip that around and assume most 30 year old millionaires will become billionairs.

IMO, the profile of an Olympic-CALIBER sprinter is someone who probably flashed world class speed by college, if not sooner. Like Jeff Demps or Trindon Holliday. Hunter ran track in college, but as far as I know, 10.5 was his best. So maybe he could have improved on that somewhat, but that is just too far away to realistically think he could have shaved a half second off his time and become an Olympian. I think his best event was the long jump (also a 7'0" high jumper), and he was great, AS A PREP. He was not an elite college sprinter, let alone Olympic level. He is a gifted athlete, and may be one of the best at his position in the NFL. Why not leave it at that, rather than make him Jim Thorpe and Jesse Owens rolled into one.

Now if you want to talk legit Olympic caliber athlete, RGIII was on that path as a hurdler. IMO, he really was that good, if he had dedicated himself to track.

Hunter was more of a jumper than a sprinter. I think his most impressive result was his 7'3" high jump. That's no joke. The USA record is "only" 7'10". You'd think with training and specific focus on the event, he might have been able to compete for an Olympic spot. He's also the Virginia record holder in the long jump. So while he's not an Olympic caliber athlete based on collegiate track results, he's still a freaky athlete with far greater explosiveness/springiness than even the average NFL player.

I have no idea how close he was to being maxed out at 7'3", or could have theoretically improved with dedicated training and coaching in the high jump, but I could buy that more than shaving a half second off his 100 m. time. Hunter was definitely a spectacular prep long jumper, I had read that previously, but forgot it in this context that he didn't just win the state meet, but was the record holder. Marquis Lee is also a great long jumper and track athlete, but not sure how he would stack up with Hunter. Incidentally, he may not have set any records, but Percy Harvin is one of the most storied prep track athletes in VA state history. He was the first to win five gold medals at the state meet in 70 years. I noted above and didn't mean it as hyperbole, but I do think Hunter might be one of the top athletes in the NFL at the WR position. I linked a YouTube video of his track highlights in the Hunter thread, it starts with a still of him at the top of his long jump and he looks like he is soaring.

The bottom line is, for me, comparing notes about things like track athleticism (or Roddy White being a state wrestling champ) isn't an abstract exercise for its own sake, but about understanding better how these elite athletic traits might TRANSLATE to an advantage on the field. Not every athlete's does. But when you see Hunter split two defenders in the end zone in college, jump over both of them and snatch the ball for a score, it is hard to not conclude that he is a football player, not a track athlete masquerading as one, and the sky is the limit for his upside. He did compete in track at the collegiate level, and one reason I thought was cause for even greater optimism is that he was so skinny (not too many chunky, flabby high/long jumpers), and that he should add size and strength once he was in the NFL and participated in their year round program.

* SF NT Michael Carter was a three time Super bowl winner and the only player in NFL history to win a ring and and Olympic medal in the same year. His 81+ feet shot put he uncorked in 1979 broke the national record by more than nine feet (microcosmic evidence of Stephen Gould's punctuated equilibrium evolutionary theory, i.e. - mutant). No prep has come within four feet since. His daughter is also an Olympian, and the women's prep national record holder.

I have heard some sports historians talk about how Jim Brown could have done just about anything, pro basketball, boxing, maybe even decathlete if he had that training skill set. There is very little he couldn't do athletically. Bo and Deion were fair athletes.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Inarguable Fact #2: Patterson and Hunter were drafted in the top 40 picks.

That's all I needed to know

Austin was a top-10 pick. There is nothing else to discus.

8th overall selection in the NFL draft. The NFL spoke. Who cares how big he is.

Back to comparing him to Julio Jones I guess.

I know it's easy to defend against an opinion when you create it (and for that purpose), but I question how productive it is.

Link to post
Share on other sites

8th overall selection in the NFL draft. The NFL spoke. Who cares how big he is.

We get it, now give it up. Even the biggest proponent of allowing NFL draft position to influence his rookie rankings, Adam, isn't saying to blindly follow draft position and nothing else. The only rookie WR to significantly outproduce Austin, was Keenan Allen and at this point the story is far from complete.

There are reasons not to like Austin, size being the most apparent, but he did show some nice potential in Year 1. Year 2 will be big in us being able to determine whether he can handle and command a bigger role in the Rams' offense.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Austin was a top-10 pick. There is nothing else to discus.

8th overall selection in the NFL draft. The NFL spoke. Who cares how big he is.

Really...???

This is what I'm talking about when I reference monkeys following monkeys jumping off a cliff...

Why would someone blindly follow where someone was drafted??

Maybe they can't think for themselves or trust their own eyes?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe they can't think for themselves or trust their own eyes?

Or realize they're not a professional?

He was being sarcastic, fyi.

There are some buster professionals out there.... I think that I (and others) could do better than many in those professionals seats if given the opportunity...

I did not get/realize he was being sarcastic....

Edited by Brewtown
Link to post
Share on other sites
Their are some buster professionals out there.... I think that I (and others) could do better than many in those professionals seats if given the opportunity...

You do have an uncanny ability to separate tall WR prospects from their shorter counterparts. That should take you far.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there a glitch in the matrix, you keep looping the second paragraph, we got it.

Back to splitting hairs? He wasn't a national champion in the 100 m. He was one of the top long jumpers as a prep. Even if he was a state champ in the 100 m. (and I don't think he was), the fallacy of that line of thinking is there are 50 states but a lot fewer Olympic berths. Not to mention, a sprinter's prime might be for close to a decade. That means for any given Summer Olympics after a four year interval (and it is obviously more complicated, former prep state champs could drop off and non-state champs could be late bloomers and surpass them in college, etc.), it isn't just a matter of being one of the top 6-8 fastest out of the 50 states... but every state champ in the past DECADE. So instead of making it through a top 50 gauntlet, it becomes a top 500 gauntlet (some sprinters may win more than one year, but that is a technicality that doesn't really put a dent in the enormity of the challenge), and the already long odds have become an order of magnitude worse.

Billionaires may have a similar resume of having become a millionaire before they were 30? But it is a lot different to flip that around and assume most 30 year old millionaires will become billionairs.

IMO, the profile of an Olympic-CALIBER sprinter is someone who probably flashed world class speed by college, if not sooner. Like Jeff Demps or Trindon Holliday. Hunter ran track in college, but as far as I know, 10.5 was his best. So maybe he could have improved on that somewhat, but that is just too far away to realistically think he could have shaved a half second off his time and become an Olympian. I think his best event was the long jump (also a 7'0" high jumper), and he was great, AS A PREP. He was not an elite college sprinter, let alone Olympic level. He is a gifted athlete, and may be one of the best at his position in the NFL. Why not leave it at that, rather than make him Jim Thorpe and Jesse Owens rolled into one.

Now if you want to talk legit Olympic caliber athlete, RGIII was on that path as a hurdler. IMO, he really was that good, if he had dedicated himself to track.

Hunter was more of a jumper than a sprinter. I think his most impressive result was his 7'3" high jump. That's no joke. The USA record is "only" 7'10". You'd think with training and specific focus on the event, he might have been able to compete for an Olympic spot. He's also the Virginia record holder in the long jump. So while he's not an Olympic caliber athlete based on collegiate track results, he's still a freaky athlete with far greater explosiveness/springiness than even the average NFL player.

Glad to see many understanding that Hunter is a freaky special talent. Olympic/semi-Olympic/special Olympic/close to Olympic/state champ/national champ/ super jumper/super fast - whatever degree you want to use or are comfortable with HE IS A FREAKISH TALENT WHO WAS UNDERVALUED in last years rookie drafts. Partly because he hurt himself and did not have the statistical résumé or was the highest of draft picks.

I salivate when talent like Justin Hunter is undervalued by the masses for whatever reason.

I did enjoy this banter and discussion about Justin Hunter and Tavon Austin. Good stuff!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Their are some buster professionals out there.... I think that I (and others) could do better than many in those professionals seats if given the opportunity...

You do have an uncanny ability to separate tall WR prospects from their shorter counterparts. That should take you far.

Hey Negative Nelly - it's Friday of Super Bowl weekend. Put on a smile....

Besides, you should be happy - you have Tavon Austin on your dynasty team...

Link to post
Share on other sites

Inarguable Fact #2: Patterson and Hunter were drafted in the top 40 picks.

That's all I needed to know

Austin was a top-10 pick. There is nothing else to discus.

8th overall selection in the NFL draft. The NFL spoke. Who cares how big he is.

Back to comparing him to Julio Jones I guess.

I know it's easy to defend against an opinion when you create it (and for that purpose), but I question how productive it is.

Groundbreaking isn't it
Link to post
Share on other sites

Austin was a top-10 pick. There is nothing else to discus.

8th overall selection in the NFL draft. The NFL spoke. Who cares how big he is.

Really...???

This is what I'm talking about when I reference monkeys following monkeys jumping off a cliff...

Why would someone blindly follow where someone was drafted??

Maybe they can't think for themselves or trust their own eyes?

Lol
Link to post
Share on other sites

To kind of bring this rookie WR conversation full circle… would you rather own Hunter or Terrance Williams moving forward?

Austin or Williams?

Personally, I'd lean slightly toward Hunter>Wiliams>Austin, due to my seriously questioning Austin's ultimate upside at his size.

Link to post
Share on other sites

To kind of bring this rookie WR conversation full circle… would you rather own Hunter or Terrance Williams moving forward?

Austin or Williams?

Personally, I'd lean slightly toward Hunter>Wiliams>Austin, due to my seriously questioning Austin's ultimate upside at his size.

I'd still roll the dice on Hunter and Tavon over Williams, based on upside. Although, I think Williams is the safest and is likely to lead the trio in 2014 fantasy points.

Tavon>Hunter>Williams, but it's close and like all 3 as off-season targets.

Link to post
Share on other sites

To kind of bring this rookie WR conversation full circle… would you rather own Hunter or Terrance Williams moving forward?

Austin or Williams?

Personally, I'd lean slightly toward Hunter>Wiliams>Austin, due to my seriously questioning Austin's ultimate upside at his size.

JFS171 - I agree with your rankings on these three...

Link to post
Share on other sites

How about ranking the 2013 class and 2014 WR class together (Dynasty Rankings)

1- Sammy Watkins

2- Marquese Lee

3- Mike Evans

4- Keenan Allen

5- Cordarelle Patteraon

6- Justin Hunter

7- Kelvin Benjamin

8- Allen Robinson

9- Deandre Hopkins

10- Jordan Matthews

11- Terrence Williams

12- Brandon Cooks

13- Tavon Austin

14- Paul Richardson

15- Odell Beckum Jr

16- Davante Adams

17- Jarvis Landry

18- Cody Hoffman

19- Aaron Dobson

20- Brandon Coleman

21- DaRick Rogers

22- Robert Woods

23- Donte Moncreif

24- Kenny Stills

25- Marlon Brown

26- Kenbrell Thompkins

27- Jered Abbrederis

Food for thought. Sorry in advance for my spelling errors....

Link to post
Share on other sites

How about ranking the 2013 class and 2014 WR class together (Dynasty Rankings)

1- Sammy Watkins

2- Marquese Lee

3- Mike Evans

4- Keenan Allen

5- Cordarelle Patteraon

6- Justin Hunter

7- Kelvin Benjamin

8- Allen Robinson

9- Deandre Hopkins

10- Jordan Matthews

11- Terrence Williams

12- Brandon Cooks

13- Tavon Austin

14- Paul Richardson

15- Odell Beckum Jr

16- Davante Adams

17- Jarvis Landry

18- Cody Hoffman

19- Aaron Dobson

20- Brandon Coleman

21- DaRick Rogers

22- Robert Woods

23- Donte Moncreif

24- Kenny Stills

25- Marlon Brown

26- Kenbrell Thompkins

27- Jered Abbrederis

Food for thought. Sorry in advance for my spelling errors....

Keenan Allen just had a 1000 yard, 8 TD season as a rookie and barely played the first three weeks of the season. That is an amazing top 10 all-time rookie season and yet you are ranking him behind 3 rookie WRs with 0 NFL yards and receptions? I don't care how high you are on them, but that's just craziness.

Link to post
Share on other sites

How about ranking the 2013 class and 2014 WR class together (Dynasty Rankings)

1- Sammy Watkins

2- Marquese Lee

3- Mike Evans

4- Keenan Allen

5- Cordarelle Patteraon

6- Justin Hunter

7- Kelvin Benjamin

8- Allen Robinson

9- Deandre Hopkins

10- Jordan Matthews

11- Terrence Williams

12- Brandon Cooks

13- Tavon Austin

14- Paul Richardson

15- Odell Beckum Jr

16- Davante Adams

17- Jarvis Landry

18- Cody Hoffman

19- Aaron Dobson

20- Brandon Coleman

21- DaRick Rogers

22- Robert Woods

23- Donte Moncreif

24- Kenny Stills

25- Marlon Brown

26- Kenbrell Thompkins

27- Jered Abbrederis

Food for thought. Sorry in advance for my spelling errors....

Keenan Allen just had a 1000 yard, 8 TD season as a rookie and barely played the first three weeks of the season. That is an amazing top 10 all-time rookie season and yet you are ranking him behind 3 rookie WRs with 0 NFL yards and receptions? I don't care how high you are on them, but that's just craziness.

I have him very high.... I'd like to think its not craziness....???

I realize that you really put yourself out there when you put together this type of list, but I like where I ranked Keenan....

Edited by Brewtown
Link to post
Share on other sites

How about ranking the 2013 class and 2014 WR class together (Dynasty Rankings)

1- Sammy Watkins

2- Marquese Lee

3- Mike Evans

4- Keenan Allen

5- Cordarelle Patteraon

6- Justin Hunter

7- Kelvin Benjamin

8- Allen Robinson

9- Deandre Hopkins

10- Jordan Matthews

11- Terrence Williams

12- Brandon Cooks

13- Tavon Austin

14- Paul Richardson

15- Odell Beckum Jr

16- Davante Adams

17- Jarvis Landry

18- Cody Hoffman

19- Aaron Dobson

20- Brandon Coleman

21- DaRick Rogers

22- Robert Woods

23- Donte Moncreif

24- Kenny Stills

25- Marlon Brown

26- Kenbrell Thompkins

27- Jered Abbrederis

Food for thought. Sorry in advance for my spelling errors....

Keenan Allen just had a 1000 yard, 8 TD season as a rookie and barely played the first three weeks of the season. That is an amazing top 10 all-time rookie season and yet you are ranking him behind 3 rookie WRs with 0 NFL yards and receptions? I don't care how high you are on them, but that's just craziness.

I have him very high.... I'd like to think its not craziness....???

I realize that you really put yourself out there when you put together this type of list, but I like where I ranked Keenan....

Allen is a proven NFL player with a spectacular rookie season under his belt. The college wide receivers you have above him have a 50/50 chance to bust according to all historical data. The risk/reward is off the charts against you by ranking a proven NFL player below some college rookies that have done nothing in the league.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

How about ranking the 2013 class and 2014 WR class together (Dynasty Rankings)

1- Sammy Watkins

2- Marquese Lee

3- Mike Evans

4- Keenan Allen

5- Cordarelle Patteraon

6- Justin Hunter

7- Kelvin Benjamin

8- Allen Robinson

9- Deandre Hopkins

10- Jordan Matthews

11- Terrence Williams

12- Brandon Cooks

13- Tavon Austin

14- Paul Richardson

15- Odell Beckum Jr

16- Davante Adams

17- Jarvis Landry

18- Cody Hoffman

19- Aaron Dobson

20- Brandon Coleman

21- DaRick Rogers

22- Robert Woods

23- Donte Moncreif

24- Kenny Stills

25- Marlon Brown

26- Kenbrell Thompkins

27- Jered Abbrederis

Food for thought. Sorry in advance for my spelling errors....

Keenan Allen just had a 1000 yard, 8 TD season as a rookie and barely played the first three weeks of the season. That is an amazing top 10 all-time rookie season and yet you are ranking him behind 3 rookie WRs with 0 NFL yards and receptions? I don't care how high you are on them, but that's just craziness.

I have him very high.... I'd like to think its not craziness....???

I realize that you really put yourself out there when you put together this type of list, but I like where I ranked Keenan....

Allen is a proven NFL player with a spectacular rookie season under his belt. The college wide receivers you have above him have a 50/50 chance to bust according to all historical data. The risk/reward is off the charts against you by ranking a proven NFL player below some college rookies that have done nothing in the league.

I'm not sure things are that simple. Projecting here is a must. Projecting is what we must do in dynasty...

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure things are that simple. Projecting here is a must. Projecting is what we must do in dynasty...

You can project a player's future production or value and still account for the very real chance that you're wrong.

That is very possible, but I don't need to tell you that. What pick did you draft Tavon Austin with last year?

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure things are that simple. Projecting here is a must. Projecting is what we must do in dynasty...

You can project a player's future production or value and still account for the very real chance that you're wrong.

That is very possible, but I don't need to tell you that. What pick did you draft Tavon Austin with last year?

ETA: Link removed.

Please stop private messaging me.

Edited by Concept Coop
Link to post
Share on other sites

Their are some buster professionals out there.... I think that I (and others) could do better than many in those professionals seats if given the opportunity...

You do have an uncanny ability to separate tall WR prospects from their shorter counterparts. That should take you far.

Hey Negative Nelly - it's Friday of Super Bowl weekend. Put on a smile....

Besides, you should be happy - you have Tavon Austin on your dynasty team...

Something tells me that I hit a sore spot with this whole Tavon Austin thing.... Sorry Concept Coop, but the guy that you took very high in your dynasty league is more of a kick returner than a consistent WR.... Edited by Brewtown
Link to post
Share on other sites

Their are some buster professionals out there.... I think that I (and others) could do better than many in those professionals seats if given the opportunity...

You do have an uncanny ability to separate tall WR prospects from their shorter counterparts. That should take you far.

Hey Negative Nelly - it's Friday of Super Bowl weekend. Put on a smile....

Besides, you should be happy - you have Tavon Austin on your dynasty team...

Sore spot?

Dude you should be happy.... You probably passed up Eddie Lacy for the next Desmond Howard!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Brewtown, the other day I posted that you were the worst thing to happen to draft discussion here in a long time--within hours it had 7-8 likes. That should tell you something.

Keep it classy wonderful...

Bunch of over-respectful nose in the air goody goodys on this board.

So which is it?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...