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Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

I like this idea of bucketing and odds to perform at a difference making level thrifty. I would like to hear more details about how one would use such a methodology for valuing players. I have sort of fooled around with something like this intuitively when assessing trade value before, but not for rankings. Would be interesting to see full rankings based off of that.

 
All Peterson did when people doubted him before was run for 2000 yards after an ACL injury. They doubt him again? I wouldnt be surprised if he is the best RB over the age of 30 in a long time when that time comes.
Current holder of that title is Tiki Barber. Topped 2,000 yards from scrimmage at age 29, 30, and 31, then retired. Best "old RB" in NFL history, for my money (with all due respect to Sweetness, who does deserve extra credit for not retiring and continuing to dominate at 32 and then adding another strong season at 33).

 
word. I am riding Manning off into the sunset for as many years as he'll give me.

Then, if any of my young QBs don't turn out to be Top 6, I'll work a trade for the next "too old" QB to ride for the next 2-3 years after that. Rinse and repeat.

ETA: that said, I do like the comfort of having Rodgers in one dynasty league and not having to really think much about that position for the next 5+ years or so.
You hit it right on. Give me Manning/Brees then Rodgers/Ryan then Luck/RG3. One day they will all be old.
Taking Manning/Brees over Rodgers is craziness. Rodgers scores just as many points, and is FIVE TO SEVEN YEARS younger.

For that matter, I think taking Manning/Brees over Newton is kind of crazy, too. They do score more points than he does, but Newton is the closest QB in the league to the Brees/Manning/Rodgers trio, and he's a decade younger than Brees.

 
Foles ahead of Brees in any dynasty league is crazy.
Agreed. I can't see how a more productive, younger player is ranked ahead of Brees.
More productive?

In his 10 starts this year, Foles averaged 264/2.4 passing, with another 22/0.3 rushing chipped in for good measure. Over the last EIGHT YEARS, Drew Brees averaged 305/2.2 passing, though he doesn't add that rushing value. Still, that's an EIGHT YEAR sample size being compared to a 10-game sample size. Over the last three years (48 game sample), Brees has averaged 329/2.67 passing. That's an extra 1,000 yards and 4 TDs every 16 games.

I'm a huge, huge Nick Foles fan in dynasty, but you're looking at a guy coming off of a major historical outlier season with an abbreviated 10-game sample size, and you're comparing him to a guy who has topped 5100 yards and 42 TDs in three consecutive seasons, and who has a serious argument as the most prolific fantasy quarterback in NFL history. I mean, for my money, give me Steve Young, but Drew Brees is definitely in the conversation.

Ain't nobody more productive than Drew Brees. I'd call Rodgers and Manning "as productive".

 
Honestly, Manning over Brees might be the biggest head-scratcher to me. You don't get credit for 2013 points anymore. Does anyone really think that there's going to be a big enough gap between the two over the next two years that they'd give up Brees' 3 extra years of age (and clean bill of health)?

Hell, Peyton's miracle season actually produced less VBD than Brees had in 2011.

 
Here are the results of a superflex startup:

1 Rodgers

2 Luck

3 Cam

4 Stafford

5 Foles

6 Griffin

7 Brees

8 Ryan

9 Wilson

10 Kaepernick

11 Peyton

12 Tannehill

13 Cutler

14 Dalton

15 Romo

16 Rivers

17 Brady

18 Ben

19 EJ

20 A Smith

21 Flacco

22 Bradford

23 Eli

24 Geno

25 Osweiler

26 Locker

27 Glennon

 
Here are the results of a superflex startup:

1 Rodgers

2 Luck

3 Cam

4 Stafford

5 Foles

6 Griffin

7 Brees

8 Ryan

9 Wilson

10 Kaepernick

11 Peyton

12 Tannehill

13 Cutler

14 Dalton

15 Romo

16 Rivers

17 Brady

18 Ben

19 EJ

20 A Smith

21 Flacco

22 Bradford

23 Eli

24 Geno

25 Osweiler

26 Locker

27 Glennon
Thanks for the real-world data. I think sometimes it's easy to be like Economists in the old joke, where we're asking each other "that's great in practice, but how does it work in theory?"

I do think it's important to note, though, that superflex dramatically changes the game. 18-24 starters means a much lower baseline, which means those guys who give you 10 years of mediocre production (hello, Eli Manning!) quickly go from roster albatrosses to franchise keystones. Youth becomes much, much more valuable, as a result.

 
If you only look at situation, 2013 was destined to be an elite draft. If you ranked a 2013 rookie by anonymous team/position combos it would have looked something like: GB RB, DEN RB, PIT RB, SD WR, STL WR, CIN RB, PIT WR. With a few tweaks that's a close match to what y+1 value is.

In stark contrast, the 2014 class lands in a terrible situation. Based purely on situation, a 2014 draft would be TEN RB, CLE RB, JAX RB, OAK RB, IND WR, DET WR, HOU QB, GB TE, NE TE, PIT WR, CAR WR, WAS WR, BAL WR, OAK WR, KC WR, BUF WR. There's very little to get excited about. The teams that need RB are bad. The good teams that need WR need them to be WR2s.

The wildcard is ATL RB but they have too many needs at OL and D, don't have a 2nd rounder, and may try to trade up from 1.6 for Clowney.

Immediate impact of the 2014 draft class might be minimal. If all this presumption is true, the way to exploit it is to trade 1sts. There are a ton of nice prospects in this class but none or few can't miss ones. If you get "draft day" value for a 2014 1st, what is holding you back from trading?

 
Touches matter as much as supporting cast when it comes to FF production. Stick any stiff on the worst team in the league, give him 250 carries, and it will be tough for him to be useless in FF. It's not like the Rams or Steelers were juggernauts this past season. Or the Browns or Bucs the year before.

There are plenty of teams with RB need:

Cleveland

Oakland

Jacksonville

New York Jets

New York Giants

Miami

And then a few less ideal spots like Arizona, Tennessee, Atlanta, and San Francisco where there isn't necessarily a long term solution on the roster.

If you figure 3-4 of those spots get plugged by some of the decent FA names on the market, that still leaves about 3-4 pretty good spots for rookies.

And IMO there's almost no such thing as a bad landing spot for a WR, so no concern from me there. Draft away.

 
Touches matter as much as supporting cast when it comes to FF production. Stick any stiff on the worst team in the league, give him 250 carries, and it will be tough for him to be useless in FF. It's not like the Rams or Steelers were juggernauts this past season. Or the Browns or Bucs the year before.

There are plenty of teams with RB need:

Cleveland

Oakland

Jacksonville

New York Jets

New York Giants

Miami

And then a few less ideal spots like Arizona, Tennessee, Atlanta, and San Francisco where there isn't necessarily a long term solution on the roster.

If you figure 3-4 of those spots get plugged by some of the decent FA names on the market, that still leaves about 3-4 pretty good spots for rookies.

And IMO there's almost no such thing as a bad landing spot for a WR, so no concern from me there. Draft away.
I agree with you.

Although, I am pretty positive that the team with a running back need that signs a Toby Gerhart type to fill their running back position will also draft an option to compete/contribute.

A team with a RB need that drafts a RB in the second round or early round three may be turning the job over right away to that rookie. If a team invests a second round pick in a RB that is a pretty hefty investment.

Sankey and Tre Mason will probably be second round picks and Hyde and Hill may be right behind them.

If I were an NFL team I would jump all over Sankey as the number 1 RB as he had big time production in a top conference, and he had a great combine (he beat Gio Bernard in virtually every measure at the underwear Olympics).

Following are my current rookie rankings:

1-Sankey

2- Mason

3- Hill

4- Hyde

Three of the above will probably be in a situation where they are virtually handed the reigns.

5- Seastrunk

6- Carey

7- Crowell

8- Sims

9- Freeman

10- Williams

11- Storm Johnson

One to three of the above will probably be in a similar type of situation as well.

If you need a RB in dynasty this year it is not a bad year to find one. There is a lot of talent along with many teams that have a need...

 
If I were an NFL team I would jump all over Sankey as the number 1 RB as he had big time production in a top conference, and he had a great combine (he beat Gio Bernard in virtually every measure at the underwear Olympics).Following are my current rookie rankings:

1-Sankey
Not to dump on your rankings as Sankey raised a lot of eyebrows with his combine performance for sure and validated his Pac 10 numbers. But. Isn't a year when Johnathan Franklin, oops, I mean Bishop Sankey can be ranked as the #1 RB justification for calling out this RB class as meh. Yes a couple guys in this class will molehill into relevance, but the field is filled with false hope and modest upside.

 
GB TE, NE TE, and ATL TE would really pump some value into this class.
If the best TE in the class (say Ebron) went to one of those, how high could you justify taking him? I'd still say only a mid 1st. I like all 3 of the TEs but don't see them as VD level prospects.
I'd agree. In a standard PPR league, I think the top TE would justify a pick in the 1.05-1.08 range, depending on where the top few RBs land.

 
All Peterson did when people doubted him before was run for 2000 yards after an ACL injury. They doubt him again? I wouldnt be surprised if he is the best RB over the age of 30 in a long time when that time comes.
Current holder of that title is Tiki Barber. Topped 2,000 yards from scrimmage at age 29, 30, and 31, then retired. Best "old RB" in NFL history, for my money (with all due respect to Sweetness, who does deserve extra credit for not retiring and continuing to dominate at 32 and then adding another strong season at 33).
AP takes better care of his body than any RB I've ever seen so if guys like Emmitt, Barber and Martin can be productive in their 30's then AP can. The wild card is injury, which is what I believe will bring him down - not age. Heck, even Fred Jackson is a borderline RB1 in PPG when healthy.

 
All Peterson did when people doubted him before was run for 2000 yards after an ACL injury. They doubt him again? I wouldnt be surprised if he is the best RB over the age of 30 in a long time when that time comes.
Current holder of that title is Tiki Barber. Topped 2,000 yards from scrimmage at age 29, 30, and 31, then retired. Best "old RB" in NFL history, for my money (with all due respect to Sweetness, who does deserve extra credit for not retiring and continuing to dominate at 32 and then adding another strong season at 33).
AP takes better care of his body than any RB I've ever seen so if guys like Emmitt, Barber and Martin can be productive in their 30's then AP can. The wild card is injury, which is what I believe will bring him down - not age. Heck, even Fred Jackson is a borderline RB1 in PPG when healthy.
Yeah, I like to look at age not as some sort of "red line", but rather more like an actuarial table. From one year to the next, there's an X% chance of decline, and as age goes up, so does X. It's not like RBs fall off a cliff when they hit 30, it's that they become more likely to fall off a cliff, but maybe they don't. Fred Jackson is a great example- if we look at age as some arbitrary threshold, he makes no sense at all. If we look at age as a series of checkpoints with each getting progressively tougher to pass through, he's easy to explain. Being old doesn't guarantee you're going to fall off, it just makes it more likely.

 
JayJay328 said:
Ellington, I'd say an early 2nd at best, upside is Vereen
Was it do crazy drugs and post on the internet day when you wrote this or what? Vereen has taken 3 years and 26 games to post stats comparable to Ellington in his rookie season.

Vereen GP26 Car121 Yd516 TD5 YPC4.26 Rec55 Yd576 TD4 YPR10.47

Ellington GP15 Car118 Yd652 TD3 YPC5.52 Rec39 Yd371 TD1 YPR9.51

If Vereen could stay healthy he might have the upside of Ellington.
2014 PPG (PPR)

Vereen: 16.81 (8th)

Ellington: 11.02 (33rd)

Vereen is going to catch a lot more balls than Ellington, until their situations change. I agree that Vereen isn't his ceiling outside if Arizona, but it might be while he's there.

That said, a healthy Vereen is an RB1 and worth a lot more than an early 2nd rounder.
I own both in different leagues. In the one where I own Vereen I will trade Vereen for Ellington straight up instantly. On the other hand, in the league I own Ellington, it will take Vereen plus that 2nd rounder for me to consider the move.

 
thriftyrocker said:
If I were an NFL team I would jump all over Sankey as the number 1 RB as he had big time production in a top conference, and he had a great combine (he beat Gio Bernard in virtually every measure at the underwear Olympics).

Following are my current rookie rankings:

1-Sankey
Not to dump on your rankings as Sankey raised a lot of eyebrows with his combine performance for sure and validated his Pac 10 numbers. But. Isn't a year when Johnathan Franklin, oops, I mean Bishop Sankey can be ranked as the #1 RB justification for calling out this RB class as meh. Yes a couple guys in this class will molehill into relevance, but the field is filled with false hope and modest upside.
I like the depth of this class as well......

 
thriftyrocker said:
If I were an NFL team I would jump all over Sankey as the number 1 RB as he had big time production in a top conference, and he had a great combine (he beat Gio Bernard in virtually every measure at the underwear Olympics).Following are my current rookie rankings:

1-Sankey
Not to dump on your rankings as Sankey raised a lot of eyebrows with his combine performance for sure and validated his Pac 10 numbers. But. Isn't a year when Johnathan Franklin, oops, I mean Bishop Sankey can be ranked as the #1 RB justification for calling out this RB class as meh. Yes a couple guys in this class will molehill into relevance, but the field is filled with false hope and modest upside.
That is an alarming suggestion that Sankey is similar to Franklin.

Sankey 5 9 209 4.49 26 bench 35.5 vert 10'6" broad 4.0 20 6.75 3 cone
Franklin 5 10 205 4.49 18 bench 31.5 vert 9'7" broad 4.31 20 6.89 3 cone

Sankey performed better than Franklin in most of the tests that might in some way matter.

Then saying that the 2014 RB class is meh if Sankey is considered the best RB prospect?

There are RB in 2015 that I think are more exciting than any of the RB in the 2014 class, but I think there are more quality RB in 2014 than there were in 2013.
 
Just because Franklin had a bad year does not mean comparing Sankey to him makes Sankey a bad prospect or worthless. I would buy Franklin at his current price. It just means he is far from a great prospect. Size, speed, CFB production against the same competition all line up. Yes the 2ndary combine measurements are in strong favor towards Sankey but that's not much to go on if you're looking to justify making Sankey a top 5 pick when you can move that top 5 pick for someone like CJ Spiller.

There are RB I like in this class and it is deep. I would question if it is deeper than 2013 as we currently know it as there are 8 2013 RBs who currently have legitimate dynasty RB1 potential. Gio, Lacy, Bell, Ball, Stacy, Michael, Lattimore, Ellington. I don't see that many in 2014 at this point, but not closing the book by any means. If there's strong confirmation from the NFL on Seastrunk and Mason (and to a lesser extent Crowell) I'll get more excited about those guys but right now I'm just tentative to like anyone that much given the spotty resumes, bad landing spots, etc.

 
Just because Franklin had a bad year does not mean comparing Sankey to him makes Sankey a bad prospect or worthless. I would buy Franklin at his current price. It just means he is far from a great prospect. Size, speed, CFB production against the same competition all line up. Yes the 2ndary combine measurements are in strong favor towards Sankey but that's not much to go on if you're looking to justify making Sankey a top 5 pick when you can move that top 5 pick for someone like CJ Spiller.

There are RB I like in this class and it is deep. I would question if it is deeper than 2013 as we currently know it as there are 8 2013 RBs who currently have legitimate dynasty RB1 potential. Gio, Lacy, Bell, Ball, Stacy, Michael, Lattimore, Ellington. I don't see that many in 2014 at this point, but not closing the book by any means. If there's strong confirmation from the NFL on Seastrunk and Mason (and to a lesser extent Crowell) I'll get more excited about those guys but right now I'm just tentative to like anyone that much given the spotty resumes, bad landing spots, etc.
Go back a year...You probably were not overly excited about the 2013 RB draft class. I personally had:

1) Gio

2) Lacy

3) Ball

4) Bell

5) Michael

6) Lattimore

7) Ellington (I was high on and got him in both of my dynasty's)

Zac Stacey (I was not high on and missed the boat)

While I had Gio #1 I remember thinking the following thoughts:

1) what a bad year to have the #1 pick.

2) I'm not very confident in this bunch

3) speed is lacking

4) there is no stud in this class

I do not feel the same this year. I like and am high on many RBs in this class!

 
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Just because Franklin had a bad year does not mean comparing Sankey to him makes Sankey a bad prospect or worthless. I would buy Franklin at his current price. It just means he is far from a great prospect. Size, speed, CFB production against the same competition all line up. Yes the 2ndary combine measurements are in strong favor towards Sankey but that's not much to go on if you're looking to justify making Sankey a top 5 pick when you can move that top 5 pick for someone like CJ Spiller.

There are RB I like in this class and it is deep. I would question if it is deeper than 2013 as we currently know it as there are 8 2013 RBs who currently have legitimate dynasty RB1 potential. Gio, Lacy, Bell, Ball, Stacy, Michael, Lattimore, Ellington. I don't see that many in 2014 at this point, but not closing the book by any means. If there's strong confirmation from the NFL on Seastrunk and Mason (and to a lesser extent Crowell) I'll get more excited about those guys but right now I'm just tentative to like anyone that much given the spotty resumes, bad landing spots, etc.
Huh nice backpedal.

I notice you do not list Franklin as one of your 8 RB from last season yet you directly compared Sankey to him. So without knowing who drafts Sankey you were suggesting that the top ranked RB from 2014 would be as worthless as Franklin has been thus far, and by association that the entire 2014 RB crop as well.

Btw Mayock moved Sankey to the top of the list today so I wonder if you still think the 2014 RB class is filled with false hope and modest upside?

 
Just because Franklin had a bad year does not mean comparing Sankey to him makes Sankey a bad prospect or worthless. I would buy Franklin at his current price. It just means he is far from a great prospect. Size, speed, CFB production against the same competition all line up. Yes the 2ndary combine measurements are in strong favor towards Sankey but that's not much to go on if you're looking to justify making Sankey a top 5 pick when you can move that top 5 pick for someone like CJ Spiller.

There are RB I like in this class and it is deep. I would question if it is deeper than 2013 as we currently know it as there are 8 2013 RBs who currently have legitimate dynasty RB1 potential. Gio, Lacy, Bell, Ball, Stacy, Michael, Lattimore, Ellington. I don't see that many in 2014 at this point, but not closing the book by any means. If there's strong confirmation from the NFL on Seastrunk and Mason (and to a lesser extent Crowell) I'll get more excited about those guys but right now I'm just tentative to like anyone that much given the spotty resumes, bad landing spots, etc.
Go back a year...You probably were not overly excited about the 2013 RB draft class. I personally had:

1) Gio

2) Lacy

3) Ball

4) Bell

5) Michael

6) Lattimore

7) Ellington (I was high on and got him in both of my dynasty's)

Zac Stacey (I was not high on and missed the boat)

While I had Gio #1 I remember thinking the following thoughts:

1) what a bad year to have the #1 pick.

2) I'm not very confident in this bunch

3) speed is lacking

4) there is no stud in this class

I do not feel the same this year. I like and am high on many RBs in this class!
Ironically, those RBs will be studs and I believe a lot will bust this year at the top for runners in this draft. I think we may see 5 Stud WRs in this draft though.

 
Just because Franklin had a bad year does not mean comparing Sankey to him makes Sankey a bad prospect or worthless. I would buy Franklin at his current price. It just means he is far from a great prospect. Size, speed, CFB production against the same competition all line up. Yes the 2ndary combine measurements are in strong favor towards Sankey but that's not much to go on if you're looking to justify making Sankey a top 5 pick when you can move that top 5 pick for someone like CJ Spiller.

There are RB I like in this class and it is deep. I would question if it is deeper than 2013 as we currently know it as there are 8 2013 RBs who currently have legitimate dynasty RB1 potential. Gio, Lacy, Bell, Ball, Stacy, Michael, Lattimore, Ellington. I don't see that many in 2014 at this point, but not closing the book by any means. If there's strong confirmation from the NFL on Seastrunk and Mason (and to a lesser extent Crowell) I'll get more excited about those guys but right now I'm just tentative to like anyone that much given the spotty resumes, bad landing spots, etc.
Huh nice backpedal.

I notice you do not list Franklin as one of your 8 RB from last season yet you directly compared Sankey to him.
Not at all. Franklin can be a starting RB short term but lacks any specialness that makes me believe he'll provide long term value. I only drafted him as a handcuff last year but if he had been a 2nd round pick in rookie drafts last year, I would have targeted him a lot. I was never as high on him as Bloom and others, and if he or Sankey hits with a significant career then yes I will be wrong on them. The crux of my argument is that there are other RBs you can trade the pick for which I think present better value.

If you're higher than me on Sankey I can certainly respect your opinion, I'm just trying to explain why I'm not.

You probably were not overly excited about the 2013 RB draft class. I personally had:1) Gio

2) Lacy

3) Ball

4) Bell

5) Michael

6) Lattimore

7) Ellington (I was high on and got him in both of my dynasty's)

Zac Stacey (I was not high on and missed the boat)
Its true of both draft classes that going in we didn't see elite prospects. This year the bar has gone down a little further though, IMO. I think we thought more highly of Lacy before the toe issues than we do of Sankey, Mason, Hyde, or whoever your top prospect is. I saw more specialness in Gio's tape than I do in Sankey's or Lache's, more Westbrookness, although the combine numbers may not agree with that assessment.

Someone capable will land in a good situation, that I have no doubt, but at this point no situation and no player is screaming out at me.

 
JayJay328 said:
I own both in different leagues. In the one where I own Vereen I will trade Vereen for Ellington straight up instantly. On the other hand, in the league I own Ellington, it will take Vereen plus that 2nd rounder for me to consider the move.
I think that's fair. I don't own Ellington anywhere, but where I own Vereen, I'd need a late first to consider swapping the two. I don't expect either player to get bell-cow touches, so I'll go with the guy who could get 80 receptions.

I'll take the RB1 upside, even if it comes with added injury risk, over the safer option with RB2 upside. Both guys will be 26 going into next season, FWIW.

 
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If you only look at situation, 2013 was destined to be an elite draft. If you ranked a 2013 rookie by anonymous team/position combos it would have looked something like: GB RB, DEN RB, PIT RB, SD WR, STL WR, CIN RB, PIT WR. With a few tweaks that's a close match to what y+1 value is.

In stark contrast, the 2014 class lands in a terrible situation. Based purely on situation, a 2014 draft would be TEN RB, CLE RB, JAX RB, OAK RB, IND WR, DET WR, HOU QB, GB TE, NE TE, PIT WR, CAR WR, WAS WR, BAL WR, OAK WR, KC WR, BUF WR. There's very little to get excited about. The teams that need RB are bad. The good teams that need WR need them to be WR2s.

The wildcard is ATL RB but they have too many needs at OL and D, don't have a 2nd rounder, and may try to trade up from 1.6 for Clowney.

Immediate impact of the 2014 draft class might be minimal. If all this presumption is true, the way to exploit it is to trade 1sts. There are a ton of nice prospects in this class but none or few can't miss ones. If you get "draft day" value for a 2014 1st, what is holding you back from trading?
Excellent post
 
Concept Coop said:
JayJay328 said:
I own both in different leagues. In the one where I own Vereen I will trade Vereen for Ellington straight up instantly. On the other hand, in the league I own Ellington, it will take Vereen plus that 2nd rounder for me to consider the move.
I think that's fair. I don't own Ellington anywhere, but where I own Vereen, I'd need a late first to consider swapping the two. I don't expect either player to get bell-cow touches, so I'll go with the guy who could get 80 receptions.

I'll take the RB1 upside, even if it comes with added injury risk, over the safer option with RB2 upside. Both guys will be 26 going into next season, FWIW.
Assuming he can stay healthy an entire season.

 
Ellington (Non-PPR)
Ellington is either 90% of Charles or a worthless flex player who got lucky. There's no inbetween. I wouldn't be scared off by format. Certainly top half of that tier.
There's always an inbetween. And even if we removed it from our potential outcomes, his current value would be in the middle of the two.

Format is a major factor when talking about a player who I don't expect to get more than 200 carries or steady goal line work. Those 40-50 points are likely to be big portion of his fantasy points.

I'd take Ball, Mathews, Tate, Pierce, Michael, and Trent over him, at least.

 
Format is a major factor when talking about a player who I don't expect to get more than 200 carries or steady goal line work. Those 40-50 points are likely to be big portion of his fantasy points.

I'd take Ball, Mathews, Tate, Pierce, Michael, and Trent over him, at least.
Arians' offense will not pass to the RB much. It's a pedestrian reception total unless he's just a monster who demands more.at the expense of Floyd and Fitz (not likely). Had 19 receptions in his last 8 games, don't expect much more than that. The difference between that and other starting RB is small.

Would dump Mathews/Tate/Pierce for him just for the chance at something better.

 
Arians' offense will not pass to the RB much. It's a pedestrian reception total unless he's just a monster who demands more.at the expense of Floyd and Fitz (not likely). Had 19 receptions in his last 8 games, don't expect much more than that. The difference between that and other starting RB is small.

Would dump Mathews/Tate/Pierce for him just for the chance at something better.
If that's the pace--you're right; format won't matter. I expected something closer to his season total and added a few to account for an increase in snaps. 40-48ish.

 
Format is a major factor when talking about a player who I don't expect to get more than 200 carries or steady goal line work. Those 40-50 points are likely to be big portion of his fantasy points.

I'd take Ball, Mathews, Tate, Pierce, Michael, and Trent over him, at least.
Arians' offense will not pass to the RB much. It's a pedestrian reception total unless he's just a monster who demands more.at the expense of Floyd and Fitz (not likely). Had 19 receptions in his last 8 games, don't expect much more than that. The difference between that and other starting RB is small.

Would dump Mathews/Tate/Pierce for him just for the chance at something better.
How is Mathews still lumped in with junk like this????

I need to go trade for him everywhere. He is way better than that tier. And if I could trade Ellington for Mathews, ESPECIALLY if I could get other stuff too, I absolutely would. 100% of the time.

 
Format is a major factor when talking about a player who I don't expect to get more than 200 carries or steady goal line work. Those 40-50 points are likely to be big portion of his fantasy points.

I'd take Ball, Mathews, Tate, Pierce, Michael, and Trent over him, at least.
Arians' offense will not pass to the RB much. It's a pedestrian reception total unless he's just a monster who demands more.at the expense of Floyd and Fitz (not likely). Had 19 receptions in his last 8 games, don't expect much more than that. The difference between that and other starting RB is small.

Would dump Mathews/Tate/Pierce for him just for the chance at something better.
How is Mathews still lumped in with junk like this????I need to go trade for him everywhere. He is way better than that tier. And if I could trade Ellington for Mathews, ESPECIALLY if I could get other stuff too, I absolutely would. 100% of the time.
:goodposting:

 
How is Mathews still lumped in with junk like this????

I need to go trade for him everywhere. He is way better than that tier. And if I could trade Ellington for Mathews, ESPECIALLY if I could get other stuff too, I absolutely would. 100% of the time.
Because even in a RB2 year he got subbed out for Ronnie Brown too much to make you feel good about it. I think I traded him to a Fleaflicker team you used to own for Montee Ball about a month ago.

 
False Start said:
Brewtown said:
Just because Franklin had a bad year does not mean comparing Sankey to him makes Sankey a bad prospect or worthless. I would buy Franklin at his current price. It just means he is far from a great prospect. Size, speed, CFB production against the same competition all line up. Yes the 2ndary combine measurements are in strong favor towards Sankey but that's not much to go on if you're looking to justify making Sankey a top 5 pick when you can move that top 5 pick for someone like CJ Spiller.

There are RB I like in this class and it is deep. I would question if it is deeper than 2013 as we currently know it as there are 8 2013 RBs who currently have legitimate dynasty RB1 potential. Gio, Lacy, Bell, Ball, Stacy, Michael, Lattimore, Ellington. I don't see that many in 2014 at this point, but not closing the book by any means. If there's strong confirmation from the NFL on Seastrunk and Mason (and to a lesser extent Crowell) I'll get more excited about those guys but right now I'm just tentative to like anyone that much given the spotty resumes, bad landing spots, etc.
Go back a year...You probably were not overly excited about the 2013 RB draft class. I personally had:

1) Gio

2) Lacy

3) Ball

4) Bell

5) Michael

6) Lattimore

7) Ellington (I was high on and got him in both of my dynasty's)

Zac Stacey (I was not high on and missed the boat)

While I had Gio #1 I remember thinking the following thoughts:

1) what a bad year to have the #1 pick.

2) I'm not very confident in this bunch

3) speed is lacking

4) there is no stud in this classI do not feel the same this year. I like and am high on many RBs in this class!
Ironically, those RBs will be studs and I believe a lot will bust this year at the top for runners in this draft.
You are WRONG!

 
Format is a major factor when talking about a player who I don't expect to get more than 200 carries or steady goal line work. Those 40-50 points are likely to be big portion of his fantasy points.

I'd take Ball, Mathews, Tate, Pierce, Michael, and Trent over him, at least.
Arians' offense will not pass to the RB much. It's a pedestrian reception total unless he's just a monster who demands more.at the expense of Floyd and Fitz (not likely). Had 19 receptions in his last 8 games, don't expect much more than that. The difference between that and other starting RB is small.

Would dump Mathews/Tate/Pierce for him just for the chance at something better.
How is Mathews still lumped in with junk like this????I need to go trade for him everywhere. He is way better than that tier. And if I could trade Ellington for Mathews, ESPECIALLY if I could get other stuff too, I absolutely would. 100% of the time.
:goodposting:
Agreed.

 
How is Mathews still lumped in with junk like this????

I need to go trade for him everywhere. He is way better than that tier. And if I could trade Ellington for Mathews, ESPECIALLY if I could get other stuff too, I absolutely would. 100% of the time.
Because even in a RB2 year he got subbed out for Ronnie Brown too much to make you feel good about it. I think I traded him to a Fleaflicker team you used to own for Montee Ball about a month ago.
Huh? Ronnie Brown had 53 touches last year to Ryan Matthews 311. If you mean Woodhead, then yeah, Woodhead's presence does cap Matthews' upside as a receiver. Even so Matthews was a RB1 even in PPR the second half of the year last year -- and IMO there's really no reason he won't give you low end RB1 numbers moving forward if he stays healthy. I can understand why you'd trade him for Montee Ball, but I wouldn't do that personally.

 
How is Mathews still lumped in with junk like this????

I need to go trade for him everywhere. He is way better than that tier. And if I could trade Ellington for Mathews, ESPECIALLY if I could get other stuff too, I absolutely would. 100% of the time.
Because even in a RB2 year he got subbed out for Ronnie Brown too much to make you feel good about it. I think I traded him to a Fleaflicker team you used to own for Montee Ball about a month ago.
Huh? Ronnie Brown had 53 touches last year to Ryan Matthews 311. If you mean Woodhead, then yeah, Woodhead's presence does cap Matthews' upside as a receiver. Even so Matthews was a RB1 even in PPR the second half of the year last year -- and IMO there's really no reason he won't give you low end RB1 numbers moving forward if he stays healthy. I can understand why you'd trade him for Montee Ball, but I wouldn't do that personally.
Crazy that Mathews value has gone down after a productive season. A season in which he proved that he could carry the load and the team could rely on him. In addition, as Mathews continued to prove himself, we saw less of Brown and even less of Woodhead.

Given the current market value, I'd gladly move Ball or Ellington for Mathews + a 2nd. The perception for Mathews somehow allows for a deal like this.

 
How is Mathews still lumped in with junk like this????

I need to go trade for him everywhere. He is way better than that tier. And if I could trade Ellington for Mathews, ESPECIALLY if I could get other stuff too, I absolutely would. 100% of the time.
Because even in a RB2 year he got subbed out for Ronnie Brown too much to make you feel good about it. I think I traded him to a Fleaflicker team you used to own for Montee Ball about a month ago.
Huh? Ronnie Brown had 53 touches last year to Ryan Matthews 311. If you mean Woodhead, then yeah, Woodhead's presence does cap Matthews' upside as a receiver. Even so Matthews was a RB1 even in PPR the second half of the year last year -- and IMO there's really no reason he won't give you low end RB1 numbers moving forward if he stays healthy. I can understand why you'd trade him for Montee Ball, but I wouldn't do that personally.
Crazy that Mathews value has gone down after a productive season. A season in which he proved that he could carry the load and the team could rely on him. In addition, as Mathews continued to prove himself, we saw less of Brown and even less of Woodhead.

Given the current market value, I'd gladly move Ball or Ellington for Mathews + a 2nd. The perception for Mathews somehow allows for a deal like this.
Mathews is a 27 year old RB who finally stayed healthy an entire season and finished as the #17 RB.

I did like how he finished the season, but he can't be counted on and will likely be out of SD after this year.

 
I think people are missing the boat somewhat on Ellington. He graded out as an elite type back in the NFL in just about every facet there is in a very appreciable and statistically significant amount of playing time his rookie season. To, me he is the epitome of a dynasty investment and possible cornerstone. There's one thing he has by himself, the talent.

Here are a few things holding him back, most of which can change can changer to rocket him up to FF stardom.

First, HIS limitations. He's light. Can he sustain being a workhorse 3 down, all situation, back? Well, his goal with his offseason regimen this year is to put on some bulk. Check, problem solved.

Second Ellington limitation, experience. Ellington contended with Mendenhall, who already knew Arians' system. Albeit, Ellington radically outperformed Mendenhall. Ellington is now the starter so he'll get all the time he needs to develop.

Third, Arians's system is more geared toward the pass and typically RB's don't put up outstanding receiving numbers in it. Carries might be OK but if you're looking for a PPR king maybe not.

Lastly, that offensive line is pourous. The first round guard from last year will play this year and maybe they can help themselves further on this front in the draft and free agency. Still, on talent alone, he averaged an astonishing 5.5 yards a carry. That's astounding.

 
If I were an NFL team I would jump all over Sankey as the number 1 RB as he had big time production in a top conference, and he had a great combine (he beat Gio Bernard in virtually every measure at the underwear Olympics).

Following are my current rookie rankings:

1-Sankey
Not to dump on your rankings as Sankey raised a lot of eyebrows with his combine performance for sure and validated his Pac 10 numbers. But. Isn't a year when Johnathan Franklin, oops, I mean Bishop Sankey can be ranked as the #1 RB justification for calling out this RB class as meh. Yes a couple guys in this class will molehill into relevance, but the field is filled with false hope and modest upside.
That is an alarming suggestion that Sankey is similar to Franklin.

Sankey 5 9 209 4.49 26 bench 35.5 vert 10'6" broad 4.0 20 6.75 3 cone

Franklin 5 10 205 4.49 18 bench 31.5 vert 9'7" broad 4.31 20 6.89 3 cone

Sankey performed better than Franklin in most of the tests that might in some way matter.

Then saying that the 2014 RB class is meh if Sankey is considered the best RB prospect?

There are RB in 2015 that I think are more exciting than any of the RB in the 2014 class, but I think there are more quality RB in 2014 than there were in 2013.
Age at draft time:Franklin: 23.5

Sankey: 21.5

 
Huh? Ronnie Brown had 53 touches last year to Ryan Matthews 311.
I mean Ronnie Brown and if you're arguing that fact, you don't remember the games. Look at snap counts if you don't believe me. Mathews became a specialist not a possible RB1. Mathews was not trusted in the 2 min offense and other stat producing parts of the offense. They put old Ronnie in there instead. Because of that, Mathews was completely unreliable. He was great in games they won or controlled and terrible otherwise, like Stevan Ridley on a worse team. I think there's a big divide between owners who relied on Mathews and those who just see his stats. Those who relied on him basically didn't get the benefit of SD's 4 game win streak at the end of the year where his stats went up. They're fed up and eager to cash out on a 27 yo RB who will never be great.

 
For example, I didn't play him in Wk 15 because I didn't trust him to get touches vs. Denver. I played Vereen, SJax, and Todman over him. Why would I value something I trust less than Todman.

 
For example, I didn't play him in Wk 15 because I didn't trust him to get touches vs. Denver. I played Vereen, SJax, and Todman over him. Why would I value something I trust less than Todman.
That's Matthew's fault?
Either his or McCoy's. Yes it's Mathews faults that he is a situational player right now. BTW Todman scored 20 points that game so it wasn't a bad choice.
Matthews has been discussed to death already, so I'm not going into a ton of detail, but this characterization is absurd. Early in the year, yes, Ryan Matthews was in RBBC and struggled both NFL and FF wise. From week 7 on, he averaged 21.5 touches / game and was RB10. He was CLEARLY the focal point and probably the best player on the SD offense down the stretch; if you didnt see that by week 15 that's on you, not on Matthews. That's the second long stretch of RB1 production he's had in the last three years, with two broken collar bones sandwiched in between.

 
How is Mathews still lumped in with junk like this????

I need to go trade for him everywhere. He is way better than that tier. And if I could trade Ellington for Mathews, ESPECIALLY if I could get other stuff too, I absolutely would. 100% of the time.
Because even in a RB2 year he got subbed out for Ronnie Brown too much to make you feel good about it. I think I traded him to a Fleaflicker team you used to own for Montee Ball about a month ago.
From week 6-17 (10 games), Ronnie Brown played 72 snaps. Total.

 

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