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Seriously? I would gladly give Reuben Randle for Riley Cooper and a rookie 2nd, even today. Especially today. In my last update, I had Randle at 38 and Cooper at 49, but that was before Cooper signed a 5-year extension with the Philadelphia Chip Kellys. Today, they're probably a half dozen spots away from each other, and if you want to give me a 2nd to make that move, I'm happy to do so.

We've seen Cooper's ceiling though; haven't we? He was a streaky WR3, after an injury landed him a starting spot in an ideal situation.

I don't know what Randle is long term, but I'd much rather hold and find out in 2014, than sell for a baseline flex option and a 2nd round pick.

73 yards and 0.7 TDs per game with Nick Foles starting, or about 1150/11 over a full season. For a 26-year-old first year starter. I would be more wary of Cooper, but Philly's willingness to give him a 5-year deal suggests to me they see him continuing to play a solid role going forward. Honestly, I think Randle, Cooper, and Williams are all pretty similar- young guys in great situations who could provide strong WR3 or even acceptable WR2 production in the short term.

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What are the odds that _________ provides more career VBD than Jason Witten, starting today?

Eifert

Ebron

Amaro

L.Green

Ertz

0%

0%

0%

10% (if he stays listed as a TE)

0%

Wait. You mean that they have more career VBD than Witten does from 2013 forward? Or that those players will end up with more than Witten's 2004-201? total?

Edited by wdcrob
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Here's the thing, though. I'll concede that you can possibly gain a marginal advantage by being really good at scouting. The issue is that the resulting adjustments to the players' FF values are anything but marginal. If you are preferring certain guys within a tier based on your personal scouting or eyeball test, that's one thing. Completely falling in love and making massive adjustments is quite another, and far more common in my experience. Patterson / Austin is a perfect example of taking this too far. Patterson over Austin is reasonable. Patterson 25+ spots over Austin is not, IMO.

The market isn't consistent in that regard. Sometimes players become horribly overvalued and sometimes they don't. Patterson is a good example of a guy who is already exorbitantly expensive. Go back a year though. What was Alshon Jeffery's price? I don't actually know, but my hunch is that it wasn't THAT much higher than your typical "next big thing" maybe prospect of the moment. So if you were an Alshon fan at that time and you were willing to pay a little over the odds, you turned a massive profit. Not every young player with upside is ridiculously overrated. Some tend to fly under the radar until they blow up.

I generally don't buy players once their hype has gone off the rails. I'm a bargain shopper, so for me I'm more interested in the incoming rookies who haven't really built huge hype yet or the sophomores that aren't rated massively higher than their generic characteristics warrant (i.e. Hunter, Patton, Boyce).

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73 yards and 0.7 TDs per game with Nick Foles starting, or about 1150/11 over a full season. For a 26-year-old first year starter. I would be more wary of Cooper, but Philly's willingness to give him a 5-year deal suggests to me they see him continuing to play a solid role going forward. Honestly, I think Randle, Cooper, and Williams are all pretty similar- young guys in great situations who could provide strong WR3 or even acceptable WR2 production in the short term.

I didn't notice his PPG numbers with Foles. I'll have to give him some more thought.

That said, his numbers were still boom or bust with Foles and very reliant on the big play. His contract included 10m in guarenteed money, with is nice, but not quite the investment that "5 years" would lead one to believe.

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guys like Riley Cooper (before this season).

Even if we are talking Riley Cooper the day after the GB game, if you accept Randle for Cooper + 2nd then that is not good.

Seriously? I would gladly give Reuben Randle for Riley Cooper and a rookie 2nd, even today. Especially today. In my last update, I had Randle at 38 and Cooper at 49, but that was before Cooper signed a 5-year extension with the Philadelphia Chip Kellys. Today, they're probably a half dozen spots away from each other, and if you want to give me a 2nd to make that move, I'm happy to do so.

IMO you are reading the information on Cooper 100% wrong. You gave up 50 spots in ADP for a 2nd. There is a reason for this gap in value.

Eh, I think DLF's mocks are way off on that one. They're much too high on Randle, and much too low on Cooper. FBG consensus has them at WR35 and WR47, which I think is a much more reasonable spread.

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What are the odds that _________ provides more career VBD than Jason Witten, starting today?

Eifert

Ebron

Amaro

L.Green

Ertz

0%

0%

0%

10% (if he stays listed as a TE)

0%

Wait. You mean that they have more career VBD than Witten does from 2013 forward? Or that those players will end up with more than Witten's 2004-201? total?

I assumed he meant more VBD going forward. With that in mind, I feel quite confident that three of those five guys will provide more value than Witten going forward. Say, put everyone's odds at 60%.

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73 yards and 0.7 TDs per game with Nick Foles starting, or about 1150/11 over a full season. For a 26-year-old first year starter. I would be more wary of Cooper, but Philly's willingness to give him a 5-year deal suggests to me they see him continuing to play a solid role going forward. Honestly, I think Randle, Cooper, and Williams are all pretty similar- young guys in great situations who could provide strong WR3 or even acceptable WR2 production in the short term.

I didn't notice his PPG numbers with Foles. I'll have to give him some more thought.

That said, his numbers were still boom or bust with Foles and very reliant on the big play. His contract included 10m in guarenteed money, with is nice, but not quite the investment that "5 years" would lead one to believe.

Yeah, I'm not saying Philly gave him a megacontract. Just that they clearly liked him and hope to keep him around.

Cooper's production was inconsistent, but he was a deep threat who didn't put up top-12 fantasy numbers, and those guys are always inconsistent. The nice thing about inconsistency is that it shows little consistency from season to season.

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I was also replying to SSOG's initial comment. Although I think calling out Dobber as a target is also misguided, or going from Hopkins to Williams.

I don't know how you can make these comments without a potential deal, unless you think Dobson is WW material. I simply ID'ed him as a sophmore WR whose price isn't overinflated due to Gordon, Jeffery, and Floyd.

As for Hopkins to Williams; I don't like Hopkins at his ADP and I do like Williams at his. It doesn't require anything more than that for me to model a potential deal around the 2. That in itsdelf is not me taking a strong stand on either player.

The downside of shopping in the rubbish bin all the time is that sometimes you end up with rubbish.

I often advocate the practice of going against the grain and targeting cheap players instead of paying through the nose for overvalued equivalents. But...sometimes guys with promising generic qualities who start out slow are genuine crap. I gave up a rookie 2nd in one league for AJ Jenkins after his rookie year thinking it was a nice price for a 1st round NFL talent at a valuable position. Turns out he just sucked and wasn't even worth that modest investment.

That would be my reservation with someone like Aaron Dobson, Marquise Goodwin, or Terrance Williams. Just because he's cheap doesn't mean he doesn't suck. That's something that I try to remember these days after squandering resources on crap like Jenkins in a couple leagues. On some level, the player still has to be good in order to justify the investment. Bad-and-cheap isn't any better than good-and-overpriced.

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I assumed he meant more VBD going forward. With that in mind, I feel quite confident that three of those five guys will provide more value than Witten going forward. Say, put everyone's odds at 60%.

I would say MUCH lower than that, myself.

At one point in time, these names would have been included: Fleener, Pettigrew, Finley, Olsen, Winslow, Gresham, Rudolph, Kendricks, Lewis...

Edited by Concept Coop
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I assumed he meant more VBD going forward. With that in mind, I feel quite confident that three of those five guys will provide more value than Witten going forward. Say, put everyone's odds at 60%.

I would say MUCH lower than that, myself.

At one point in time, these names would have been included: Fleener, Pettigrew, Finley, Olsen, Winslow, Gresham, Rudolph, Kendricks, Lewis...

Well, yeah. But Witten wasn't 31 or 32 years old then either.

Edited by wdcrob
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Well, yeah. But Witten wasn't 31 or 32 years old then either.

Even if we put them in a time machine and left Witten at 31, Witten is the heavy favorite.

The point I am trying to make is that the market has a habit underestimating the bust rate. If a player can't get over that hump, it doesn't matter how old they are.

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I assumed he meant more VBD going forward. With that in mind, I feel quite confident that three of those five guys will provide more value than Witten going forward. Say, put everyone's odds at 60%.

I would say MUCH lower than that, myself.

At one point in time, these names would have been included: Fleener, Pettigrew, Finley, Olsen, Winslow, Gresham, Rudolph, Kendricks, Lewis...

I was never a Fleener, Rudolph, or Lewis fan.

I think a 23-year-old Greg Olsen would have more VBD left than a 31-year-old Witten, and a young Finley would probably be joining him if not for injury (which can happen to either side- in fact, it's probably more likely to happen to Witten than any of the young guys, just because of age). A 1st or 2nd year Kellen Winslow probably would have crushed a 12th-year Jason Witten in VBD remaining. Gresham, Kendricks, and Pettigrew were genuine misses, though.

Thinking about it, though, I'm coming from a non-PPR background. I'm not really sure what Witten's VBD averages have been the last few years in PPR, but that would surely change the calculus for me.

Edit: say 60% across the board in PPR and 40% across the board in non-PPR.

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Alright to change the subject from Ryan Mathews.....what is the consensus about Terrance Williams?

I'm excited about his guy. Playing opposite Dez Bryant and in an offense run by Scott Linehan (who loves to throw the ball), I really feel like his value will continue to rise throughout the off-season. My question is, what type of ceiling are we looking at?

I am not entirely sure why but it seems like many here do not value Terrance Williams as highly as he deserves to be.

I liked Williams as a WR prospect last season. If I put him in the 2014 rookie WR class I would have quite a few (close to 10) of the 2014 WR ranked ahead of him.

But knowing Williams situation (a great one in Dallas right now) and how well he performed as a rookie (where he excelled) I would not trade Williams for most of the 2014 WR prospects right now, without knowing their situations.

The role that Williams has earned as the WR 2 in Dallas could be compared to what Miles Austin was doing in terms of targets/receptions.

Austin once he became the starter averaged 7 targets/game ending up with somewhere between 110-120 targets when he was healthy for the whole season.

Williams earned 74 targets as a rookie. With Austin out of the picture and an aging Jason Witten I expect Williams targets to jump to the 100+ range in 2014.

New OC Scott Linehan has been one of the most aggressive deep pass play callers in pretty much every team he has coached.

Last season, the Cowboys were gun-shy. A team armed with a big-play receiver, Dez Bryant, and a veteran quarterback, Tony Romo, was reluctant to take shots downfield. As the Cowboys meandered their way to a third straight 8-8 record, many wondered what happened to Dallas’ vertical passing game, which vanished for long stretches last season while offensive coordinator Bill Callahan called the plays.

Romo attempted only 42 passes of 21 or more air yards in 2013, the 17th-highest total in the league. Quarterbacks as green as the Jets’ Geno Smith and as long in the tooth as Arizona’s Carson Palmer went deep more times than the Cowboys starter.

But that could change now that Scott Linehan is on board as the play-caller.

Linehan, after all, digs the long ball. In Minnesota, Miami, St. Louis and Detroit, Linehan’s four NFL stops, the quarterbacks were instructed to stretch the defense.

“It’s fair to say there’s going to be some deep threat incorporated into every read,” Linehan told the Palm Beach Post in 2005, when he worked with Cowboys coach Jason Garrett on Nick Saban’s Dolphins staff. “The coverage will dictate where the ball goes. But we’re going to attack all parts of the field.”

As a coordinator in Minnesota, Linehan presided over an offense that featured Daunte Culpepper and one of the NFL’s most dynamic receivers, Randy Moss. In 2002, Linehan’s first season, Culpepper attempted more passes of 20 or more air yards – 85 to be exact – than any quarterback in the league. Three years later, with Linehan pulling the strings, the nomadic Gus Frerotte looked frequently downfield, too. As Miami’s quarterback, Frerotte threw 70 deep passes – the fourth-highest total in the NFL that season.

In St. Louis, where Linehan served as head coach from 2006 to 2008, the Rams relied on their vertical passing game. During Linehan’s inaugural season with the Rams, St. Louis quarterback Marc Bulger led the league with 77 attempts of 21 or more air yards.

Linehan’s next pupil, Detroit’s Matthew Stafford, threw the second-highest number of long passes in the NFL in 2012, when he aired it out 85 times.

Wherever he has been, Linehan has shown he isn’t risk-averse, dialing up deep passes in the hunt for momentum-changing plays and high rewards.

After a season in which Romo and the Cowboys played conservatively on offense, Linehan figures to take a bold approach as he revamps the playbook. Whether that will help Dallas extricate itself from the 8-8 rut that has ensnared the franchise remains to be seen. But it could be entertaining no matter what happens.

Follow Rainer Sabin on Twitter at @RainerSabinDMN

As a rookie Williams had 12 catches of 20 or more yards. Those deep targets will likely increase for him in 2014.

I do not see a good reason to trade away Williams as a generic 2nd year WR. Few of the rookie WRs from last season performed as well as him and none are in better situations to maximize their potential.

So a mid 1st round rookie pick in 2014 seems a reasonable approximation of his value. He may not have the WR1 potential that some may see for Patterson, Austin, Hunter but he is in a safer more predictable situation than any of those players are in for 2014.

Edited by Biabreakable
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I was never a Fleener, Rudolph, or Lewis fan.

This is what the market does--leaving itself vulnerable. Every bust had a solid backing; that's why they're classified as busts. The bust rate for TEs drafted in the 1st round is higher than 50%. We know this. Yet, when it comes down to it, we don't apply it.

In a no trade league where market value means nothing, Patterson would still be valued a lot higher than DeSean Jackson. Yet, who would give more than 50/50 odds in Patterson's favor in a VBD race starting today?

Edited by Concept Coop
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The point I am trying to make is that the market has a habit underestimating the bust rate. If a player can't get over that hump, it doesn't matter how old they are.

I don't really view it that way. The bust rate is real and it is high. But return is also potentially high. I think a straight VBD analysis of an upper 1st pick at TE would prefer the youth at this point.

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I was never a Fleener, Rudolph, or Lewis fan.

This is what the market does--leaving itself vulnerable. Every bust had a solid backing; that's why they're classified as busts. The bust rate for TEs drafted in the 1st round is higher than 50%. We know this. Yet, when it comes down to it, we don't apply it.

In a no trade league where market value means nothing, Patterson would still be valued a lot higher than DeSean Jackson. Yet, who would give more than 50/50 odds in Patterson's favor in a VBD race starting today?

The TE position has changed so much in recent years that I'm not sure historical averages carry much weight. If we were comparing a 31-year-old Jason Witten to a bunch of 23-24 year olds who were drafted to be the next Jason Witten, that'd be one thing. We're not. We're comparing a 31-year-old Jason Witten to a bunch of kids who are basically just WRs with TE eligibility.

I can't really say what the market has been for young TEs, but I do know that I've had a ton of success at the position over the years. Maybe this is me attributing too much predictive power to a small sample size, but I have a decent amount of confidence in my ability to spot up-and-comers. More than anything, though, I just think Jason Witten is an overrated fantasy asset. He's not a difference-maker. In non-PPR, he typically hovers in the TE5-8 range, producing 20-30 points of VBD a year. He's had more than 40 VBD just three times in his career. Antonio Gates had as much VBD in his first two seasons as Witten had in his last 6. And he turns 32 in two months. That combination doesn't exactly blow my skirt up, so to speak.

Really, I think the biggest difference between Jason Witten and Greg Olsen today is name recognition.

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I don't really view it that way. The bust rate is real and it is high. But return is also potentially high. I think a straight VBD analysis of an upper 1st pick at TE would prefer the youth at this point.

I don't think that would be the case, even without some kind of handicap to account for the ADP gap.

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Really, I think the biggest difference between Jason Witten and Greg Olsen today is name recognition.

You're coming from a non-PPR stance and I'm not. There's a major difference in his value. At one point he finished TE2 or better 3 years in a row, followed up by 3 consistent, consistently above baseline seasons. In one of them, he broke the record for receptions by a TE in a single season.

Olsen posted a career best in receptions and yardage this season. Witten has bested both of those marks each and every single season since 2006. The difference between Witten and Olsen is a very big production gap, which we in the hobby measure in fantasy points.

Edited by Concept Coop
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Think about that; at least 73/851 a season for 7 years in a row. This while playing with Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Miles Austin, and Dez Bryant. Greg Olsen needed to lead his team in receptions to come close and still fell short of that mark; Witten's floor.

Edited by Concept Coop
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I don't really view it that way. The bust rate is real and it is high. But return is also potentially high. I think a straight VBD analysis of an upper 1st pick at TE would prefer the youth at this point.

I don't think that would be the case, even without some kind of handicap to account for the ADP gap.

60 ADP for Witten last year in full PPR. Even with no dropoff I think you need 4 years. I don't think you'll get 4 years (and I don't think he'll score 8 tds every year). I was very careful to say upper 1st. The grey area is how you equate semi-proven non upper 1sts to historical upper 1sts.

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Really, I think the biggest difference between Jason Witten and Greg Olsen today is name recognition.

You're coming from a non-PPR stance and I'm not.

</conversation>

Non-PPR, Witten is a JAG.

Judging from the trade thread, it seems like most people are in PPR leagues (either that or they do a hell of a lot more trading).

Edited by squistion
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Eh, I think DLF's mocks are way off on that one. They're much too high on Randle, and much too low on Cooper. FBG consensus has them at WR35 and WR47, which I think is a much more reasonable spread.

It seems there is a FBG staff echo chamber different from the ROTW, even FBG forums. I see Bloom has RRandle at 47 and is hyping Jerrigan, so perhaps that is part of the source. The cost of a 2nd is minute given his real world value.

Randle's ranking

Fantasy Pros aggregate 25 (20 to 26)

DLF staff 26 (17 to 36)

DLF ADP 29

FBG 35

Cooper's ranking

FBG 47

DLF ADP 53

Fantasy Pros aggregate 57 (45 to 72)

DLF staff 57

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guys like Riley Cooper (before this season).

Even if we are talking Riley Cooper the day after the GB game, if you accept Randle for Cooper + 2nd then that is not good.

Seriously? I would gladly give Reuben Randle for Riley Cooper and a rookie 2nd, even today. Especially today. In my last update, I had Randle at 38 and Cooper at 49, but that was before Cooper signed a 5-year extension with the Philadelphia Chip Kellys. Today, they're probably a half dozen spots away from each other, and if you want to give me a 2nd to make that move, I'm happy to do so.

IMO you are reading the information on Cooper 100% wrong. You gave up 50 spots in ADP for a 2nd. There is a reason for this gap in value.

Eh, I think DLF's mocks are way off on that one. They're much too high on Randle, and much too low on Cooper. FBG consensus has them at WR35 and WR47, which I think is a much more reasonable spread.

Adam- doesn't make much sense to say we (DLF) are too high on Randle/low on Cooper based on the mocks/ADP. As you know, that data comes from 6 different drafts done each month filled with more than 60 different drafters coming from DLF, FBG, twitter etc. In most months, I'm the only one in multiple mocks, so it's not like one person is inflating any player's value. Maybe the sample size is not large enough for your taste.

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Really, I think the biggest difference between Jason Witten and Greg Olsen today is name recognition.

You're coming from a non-PPR stance and I'm not.

</conversation>

Non-PPR, Witten is a JAG.

Judging from the trade thread, it seems like most people are in PPR leagues (either that or they do a hell of a lot more trading).

Agreed. And FBGs staff rankings are all PPR. It's just a different mindset, since I usually play in non-PPR leagues, and for a few players it makes a huge difference. Witten's one of the biggest. In non-PPR, he's scored 23 points more than Greg Olsen over the last two years. In PPR, that gap is 64 points.

As an aside, I really don't think dynasty leagues should be PPR. PPR was introduced because in redraft leagues, RBs were much more valuable than WRs, and that's not appropriate when you're only owning each of those players for a year. In Dynasty, though, you *WANT* RBs to be more valuable from year-to-year than WRs, because WRs offset that advantage with longer careers. And both positions are more valuable than QBs, but QBs have the longest careers of all. In that way, the positions are relatively balanced against each other in dynasty. If you add PPR and all of a sudden the top WRs start producing nearly as much VBD season-by-season as the top RBs, then WR becomes too valuable relative to the rest of the positions.

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Eh, I think DLF's mocks are way off on that one. They're much too high on Randle, and much too low on Cooper. FBG consensus has them at WR35 and WR47, which I think is a much more reasonable spread.

It seems there is a FBG staff echo chamber different from the ROTW, even FBG forums. I see Bloom has RRandle at 47 and is hyping Jerrigan, so perhaps that is part of the source. The cost of a 2nd is minute given his real world value.

Randle's ranking

Fantasy Pros aggregate 25 (20 to 26)

DLF staff 26 (17 to 36)

DLF ADP 29

FBG 35

Cooper's ranking

FBG 47

DLF ADP 53

Fantasy Pros aggregate 57 (45 to 72)

DLF staff 57

I can't really speak for the rest of the FBGs rankers, but most of us communicate very little with each other, and there's a pretty broad range of strategies represented (spanning from Pasquino to Parsons, pretty much diametric opposites). I'm not sure how much of an echo chamber is at play. I know that I honestly had no idea where FBGs had either player ranked until I checked, because I typically don't check the rest of the staff rankings except to check and make sure I didn't forget anyone obvious when submitting my own. I know there are going to be subtle biases causing our rankings to converge in some instances, but I don't know if Cooper/Randle are the result of an echo chamber, or if it's just different people arriving at similar conclusions.

If Randle's really commanding WR25ish prices in "real world value", then I'd be pretty happy to sell him off right now. That seems very steep to me.

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Adam- doesn't make much sense to say we (DLF) are too high on Randle/low on Cooper based on the mocks/ADP. As you know, that data comes from 6 different drafts done each month filled with more than 60 different drafters coming from DLF, FBG, twitter etc. In most months, I'm the only one in multiple mocks, so it's not like one person is inflating any player's value. Maybe the sample size is not large enough for your taste.

No problems at all with the sample size. Obviously more than 6 is always better, and just as obviously there are limited resources to bring to bear on the situation, and dynasty is very much still a niche corner of the fantasy community. I think even with just 6 they're a very valuable tool, especially if you use the month-to-month rankings to smooth out a bit of the bumps along the way (like Cooper dropping from 55 in January to 75 in February and back up to 55 again in March). I think you do a great job with the mocks and think they're an invaluable resource, but I also think they tend to skew by default to DLF consensus rankings. Maybe I'm off on that one, but that's the impression that I've had. Perhaps I'm just underrating how representative DLF consensus is of the broader dynasty consensus.

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Reuben Randle to me is the 2013 Emmanuel Sanders. Both had promise of big years based upon increased role in offense and both are really just guys. A 52% catch rate isn't exactly promising to me. If you project last years performance to 120 targets (which is what Cruz saw, and unlikely for Randle) he would be in line for around 60/800 which is what I'd expect.

I haven't been able to find a buyer for Randle at anywhere near his ADP right now in my experience.

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Adam- doesn't make much sense to say we (DLF) are too high on Randle/low on Cooper based on the mocks/ADP. As you know, that data comes from 6 different drafts done each month filled with more than 60 different drafters coming from DLF, FBG, twitter etc. In most months, I'm the only one in multiple mocks, so it's not like one person is inflating any player's value. Maybe the sample size is not large enough for your taste.

No problems at all with the sample size. Obviously more than 6 is always better, and just as obviously there are limited resources to bring to bear on the situation, and dynasty is very much still a niche corner of the fantasy community. I think even with just 6 they're a very valuable tool, especially if you use the month-to-month rankings to smooth out a bit of the bumps along the way (like Cooper dropping from 55 in January to 75 in February and back up to 55 again in March). I think you do a great job with the mocks and think they're an invaluable resource, but I also think they tend to skew by default to DLF consensus rankings. Maybe I'm off on that one, but that's the impression that I've had. Perhaps I'm just underrating how representative DLF consensus is of the broader dynasty consensus.

Hmm...maybe. I just ask each participant to draft as if they were drafting their own team. As far as what resources they use (DLF rankings, FBG rankings, past ADP) I have no idea.

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Reuben Randle to me is the 2013 Emmanuel Sanders. Both had promise of big years based upon increased role in offense and both are really just guys. A 52% catch rate isn't exactly promising to me. If you project last years performance to 120 targets (which is what Cruz saw, and unlikely for Randle) he would be in line for around 60/800 which is what I'd expect.

I haven't been able to find a buyer for Randle at anywhere near his ADP right now in my experience.

Sanders is in the dictionary under JAG. I think a key difference there is that Sanders was a 4th year player last season whereas Randle will be a 3rd year player this season. Randle was also an early entry to the draft as a 20 year old junior whereas Sanders was a 23 year old rookie after exhausting all FIVE years of his eligibility at SMU (because he not only wasn't talented enough to play as a true freshman at an inferior program, but also wasn't talented enough to leave for the draft after his junior year). Randle is actually a year younger right now than Sanders was when he played his rookie season. So you're comparing guys at totally different stages of their development.

I don't think Randle will ever be an elite player, but he can be a Torrey Smith/Stevie Johnson/Eric Decker level receiver. He has made positive strides each of the past two seasons, which is the main thing you hope for from a developing pass catcher. His 2013 efficiency stats aren't necessarily binding for his future considering that he's still extremely young and inexperienced. We may not have seen the "real" Rueben Randle just yet. I had him at WR31 in my offseason dynasty WR rankings. I think that's roughly in the ballpark of his market value/price.

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Reuben Randle to me is the 2013 Emmanuel Sanders. Both had promise of big years based upon increased role in offense and both are really just guys. A 52% catch rate isn't exactly promising to me. If you project last years performance to 120 targets (which is what Cruz saw, and unlikely for Randle) he would be in line for around 60/800 which is what I'd expect.

I haven't been able to find a buyer for Randle at anywhere near his ADP right now in my experience.

Sanders is in the dictionary under JAG. I think a key difference there is that Sanders was a 4th year player last season whereas Randle will be a 3rd year player this season. Randle was also an early entry to the draft as a 20 year old junior whereas Sanders was a 23 year old rookie after exhausting all FIVE years of his eligibility at SMU (because he not only wasn't talented enough to play as a true freshman at an inferior program, but also wasn't talented enough to leave for the draft after his junior year). Randle is actually a year younger right now than Sanders was when he played his rookie season. So you're comparing guys at totally different stages of their development.

I don't think Randle will ever be an elite player, but he can be a Torrey Smith/Stevie Johnson/Eric Decker level receiver. He has made positive strides each of the past two seasons, which is the main thing you hope for from a developing pass catcher. His 2013 efficiency stats aren't necessarily binding for his future considering that he's still extremely young and inexperienced. We may not have seen the "real" Rueben Randle just yet. I had him at WR31 in my offseason dynasty WR rankings. I think that's roughly in the ballpark of his market value/price.

My comp to Emmanuel Sanders was strictly related to him being 'fluffed' because of a perceived increase in role of offense by the departure of a FA (Wallace & Nicks respectively).

Nothing about Randle jumps out at me, and his performance has been meh with the opportunity he has had. To put things in perspective, the extra mediocre Brandon Myers caught more passes (47 vs 41) on less targets (76 vs 78). Sure they are differen't positions and situations are different but I think its telling, especially when Jernigan hauled in only 12 less catches with 31 less targets.

If you consider that the NYG are looking to add a a legit pass catching TE along with the emergence of Jernigan and what has to be an improved run game, I just don't see the significant uptick in Randles production.

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Nothing about Randle jumps out at me, and his performance has been meh with the opportunity he has had. To put things in perspective, the extra mediocre Brandon Myers caught more passes (47 vs 41) on less targets (76 vs 78). Sure they are differen't positions and situations are different but I think its telling, especially when Jernigan hauled in only 12 less catches with 31 less targets.

I don't think you can decide anything from that for exactly the reasons EBF stated. 2012 Chicago stats Bennett had 29 catches on 49 chances and Jeffery had 24 on 48. There are problems with Randle (raw, chemistry, causing INTs, etc.) but it is not the bare stats you quoted.

Edited by thriftyrocker
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Nothing about Randle jumps out at me, and his performance has been meh with the opportunity he has had. To put things in perspective, the extra mediocre Brandon Myers caught more passes (47 vs 41) on less targets (76 vs 78). Sure they are differen't positions and situations are different but I think its telling, especially when Jernigan hauled in only 12 less catches with 31 less targets.

I don't think you can decide anything from that for exactly the reasons EBF stated. 2012 Chicago stats Bennett had 29 catches on 49 chances and Jeffery had 24 on 48. There are problems with Randle (raw, chemistry, causing INTs, etc.) but it is not the bare stats you quoted.

I can and have decided that the group think on Randle has his value way overblown as demonstrated by his ADP in DFL mocks. Its not as if he has been hidden on the bench and to say he is raw after two full NFL seasons is indictment enough to me.

He will need to become way more efficient or get an unrealistic gain in targets to even sniff Torrey Smith's production. You can sit around and wait for 'maybe, best case' WR2 numbers. I will sell all day at his current value.

Edited by tone1oc
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TEs are usually going to have a higher catch rate than WRs. Just a function of the short routes they run. Means very little.

Jernigan has been in the league for three years (one year longer than Randle). He didn't even get a target as a rookie. He has 32 career catches compared to 60 for Randle. He had two okay games at the tail of last season, but for the previous ~2 years had been glued to the bench firmly behind Randle. I don't see much reason to think he's going to be a huge factor there. I kinda liked him out of Troy, but he's small and probably better as a slot guy.

Randle was a 5 star HS recruit. First team All-SEC by the coaches in 2011. 2nd round pick as a 20 year old junior entry. Positive uptick in production over his first two seasons. 6'2" yet still agile enough to feature on punt returns. Plenty of reasons to like him now that Nicks and his 100+ targets are about to walk out the door. I don't think you have to love him as a prospect, but you're grasping at straws with the Myers comparison and the Jernigan mention without acknowledging the most obvious reason why people think he might be poised for a breakout (he should move into the starting lineup with Nicks gone).

There's some chance that the Giants torpedo that by drafting another WR or signing a veteran, but right now there's a clear expansion of his opportunity in the cards. Sometimes FF isn't rocket science. Young players with compelling draft backgrounds who are improving on the field and are in line to receive increased chances are generally some of the better breakout candidates out there. If you want to play the Emmanuel Sanders card then you can do that. I'd argue that Randle is a lot more talented than Sanders and that plenty of things in his background suggest as much (elite reputation in high school, success at a major college program, coveted enough to leave school as a junior, 2nd round draft slot as a 20 year old, superior NFL production up to the same point in his career).

If Nicks leaves and the Giants don't go big for a 1st-3rd round WR in the draft or a prominent FA, Randle will stand a pretty good chance of getting 1000+ receiving yards next season by virtue of his opportunity. A 23 year old WR coming off a 1000+ yard season is going to be a desirable commodity in FF leagues. That's the kind of outcome that his fans are hoping for and it's not that far-fetched given his background, situation, and career trajectory to date.

Edited by EBF
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Adam- doesn't make much sense to say we (DLF) are too high on Randle/low on Cooper based on the mocks/ADP. As you know, that data comes from 6 different drafts done each month filled with more than 60 different drafters coming from DLF, FBG, twitter etc. In most months, I'm the only one in multiple mocks, so it's not like one person is inflating any player's value. Maybe the sample size is not large enough for your taste.

No problems at all with the sample size. Obviously more than 6 is always better, and just as obviously there are limited resources to bring to bear on the situation, and dynasty is very much still a niche corner of the fantasy community. I think even with just 6 they're a very valuable tool, especially if you use the month-to-month rankings to smooth out a bit of the bumps along the way (like Cooper dropping from 55 in January to 75 in February and back up to 55 again in March). I think you do a great job with the mocks and think they're an invaluable resource, but I also think they tend to skew by default to DLF consensus rankings. Maybe I'm off on that one, but that's the impression that I've had. Perhaps I'm just underrating how representative DLF consensus is of the broader dynasty consensus.

Hmm...maybe. I just ask each participant to draft as if they were drafting their own team. As far as what resources they use (DLF rankings, FBG rankings, past ADP) I have no idea.

Honestly, it's no big, and I don't mean to seem unappreciative or anything- I think the ADP data is an invaluable resource that's been lacking in the field for years. ADP data for dynasty leagues is just never the All/Everything it is for redraft leagues, simply because there are such a huge range of strategies and philosophies and opinions that there are no great one-size-fits-all solutions. Much like PFF's player grades, DLF's ADP data gives us a nice solid objective datapoint to use as a starting point for conversations, but it has to be taken with a grain of salt.

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TEs are usually going to have a higher catch rate than WRs. Just a function of the short routes they run. Means very little.

Jernigan has been in the league for three years (one year longer than Randle). He didn't even get a target as a rookie. He has 32 career catches compared to 60 for Randle. He had two okay games at the tail of last season, but for the previous ~2 years had been glued to the bench firmly behind Randle. I don't see much reason to think he's going to be a huge factor there. I kinda liked him out of Troy, but he's small and probably better as a slot guy.

Randle was a 5 star HS recruit. First team All-SEC by the coaches in 2011. 2nd round pick as a 20 year old junior entry. Positive uptick in production over his first two seasons. 6'2" yet still agile enough to feature on punt returns. Plenty of reasons to like him now that Nicks and his 100+ targets are about to walk out the door. I don't think you have to love him as a prospect, but you're grasping at straws with the Myers comparison and the Jernigan mention without acknowledging the most obvious reason why people think he might be poised for a breakout (he should move into the starting lineup with Nicks gone).

There's some chance that the Giants torpedo that by drafting another WR or signing a veteran, but right now there's a clear expansion of his opportunity in the cards. Sometimes FF isn't rocket science. Young players with compelling draft backgrounds who are improving on the field and are in line to receive increased chances are generally some of the better breakout candidates out there. If you want to play the Emmanuel Sanders card then you can do that. I'd argue that Randle is a lot more talented than Sanders and that plenty of things in his background suggest as much (elite reputation in high school, success at a major college program, coveted enough to leave school as a junior, 2nd round draft slot as a 20 year old, superior NFL production up to the same point in his career).

If Nicks leaves and the Giants don't go big for a 1st-3rd round WR in the draft or a prominent FA, Randle will stand a pretty good chance of getting 1000+ receiving yards next season by virtue of his opportunity. A 23 year old WR coming off a 1000+ yard season is going to be a desirable commodity in FF leagues. That's the kind of outcome that his fans are hoping for and it's not that far-fetched given his background, situation, and career trajectory to date.

I have acknowledged the reason why people are overvaluing him, it is the basis for my argument. I don't think I need to mention it when I say that he is being overvalued because of a perceived increase in role/production based on FA leaving. I think you are doing yourself a disservice to just assume that he is going to plug-in to Nicks' production.

He may have all the pedigree in the world, but I've seen him play the whole of two NFL seasons in which he got plenty of work, especially for a very young player. You have argued very well the case for his breakout. I respect your opinion and even assuming its right I still believe that his current cost is way too high to hope on that kind of outcome.

I'd much rather hope on the upside of Tavon Austin, or hope on continued health and prosperity of Vincent Jackson, or hope that Eric Decker really is a great WR.

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According to Randle's March ADP, he's more valuable than all but two rookies. Is there anyone here who would trade the 1.03 rookie pick for Rueben Randle? 1.04? 1.05? What pick would you be willing to give up to get Randle?

The rookie picks have been grossly undervalued in startups based on what I've seen.

Zero chance randle brings in a top rookie pick

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Jeter is as high on Randle as anyone, would look forward to a response from him.

I actually agree with Tone1oc that the ADP is high enough to be exploited, I just think there's still a buy price on him I'd be happy with. There are WRs in the 70s I like less than him, Austin included. When rookie draft euphoria sets in, I expect at least 3 rookie WR to be worth more, maybe up to 5. I expect at least 3 rookie RB to be worth more, maybe as much as 7.

I would not pay any pick for Cooper. Nor would I for Harry Douglas, Brian Hartline, Manny Sanders, Jericho Cotchery, Doug Baldwin, etc.

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Adam- doesn't make much sense to say we (DLF) are too high on Randle/low on Cooper based on the mocks/ADP. As you know, that data comes from 6 different drafts done each month filled with more than 60 different drafters coming from DLF, FBG, twitter etc. In most months, I'm the only one in multiple mocks, so it's not like one person is inflating any player's value. Maybe the sample size is not large enough for your taste.

No problems at all with the sample size. Obviously more than 6 is always better, and just as obviously there are limited resources to bring to bear on the situation, and dynasty is very much still a niche corner of the fantasy community. I think even with just 6 they're a very valuable tool, especially if you use the month-to-month rankings to smooth out a bit of the bumps along the way (like Cooper dropping from 55 in January to 75 in February and back up to 55 again in March). I think you do a great job with the mocks and think they're an invaluable resource, but I also think they tend to skew by default to DLF consensus rankings. Maybe I'm off on that one, but that's the impression that I've had. Perhaps I'm just underrating how representative DLF consensus is of the broader dynasty consensus.

Hmm...maybe. I just ask each participant to draft as if they were drafting their own team. As far as what resources they use (DLF rankings, FBG rankings, past ADP) I have no idea.

Honestly, it's no big, and I don't mean to seem unappreciative or anything- I think the ADP data is an invaluable resource that's been lacking in the field for years. ADP data for dynasty leagues is just never the All/Everything it is for redraft leagues, simply because there are such a huge range of strategies and philosophies and opinions that there are no great one-size-fits-all solutions. Much like PFF's player grades, DLF's ADP data gives us a nice solid objective datapoint to use as a starting point for conversations, but it has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Definitely agree with you there. I think ADP is best used as what most would assume...a tool/resource when participating in a startup draft. While I think it can be helpful to use in trade analysis, rookie draft prediction or established team analysis, there are flaws with each of those. I've seen and heard of many trying to make trades strictly based on this ADP data and that just won't work, in most cases.

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According to Randle's March ADP, he's more valuable than all but two rookies. Is there anyone here who would trade the 1.03 rookie pick for Rueben Randle? 1.04? 1.05? What pick would you be willing to give up to get Randle?

I know, or think at least, you're just trying to make a point, more about ADP than Randle. But I agree. Aligning vet value with rookie value based on startup drafts just can't be done, especially once you get past the top 2 or 3 rookies. Obviously Randle is not worth the 1.03 and rookie drafts, startup drafts and existing teams are not all handled the same.

Here are how some of the vets matched up with rookies/rookie picks. (I think this was based on Feb ADP data)

https://twitter.com/FFJeffM/status/440937308821680129/photo/1

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Any thoughts on here about young-but-not-super-talented possession WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Kendall Wright?

I guess Hopkins should get a bit of a bump given how young he is (22), is actually bigger than I thought (6'1'', 218), and Andre has to hang up the cleats eventually (will be 33). But he's really just a possession receiver, possibly in an ideal situation starting in 2015.

Wright is in a similar boat IMO, but isn't as young, or as big, and might not even be the best WR on his team.

Seems like both guys are probably solid PPR WR3s, but do they really belong in the top 20, over the likes A.Brown, Floyd, Marshall, Garcon, Nelson, and Cruz?

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/46442/69/2014-dynasty-rankings---wr

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Should give some props to FBGs/Sig Bloom for slotting this guys more reasonably:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=bloomtop50dynWR

Hopkins balanced with high upside but risky guys like Blackmon/Austin, and putting Wright after Justin Hunter, and in the same tier as Terrance WIlliams and Marvin Jones.

I think the rotoworld rankings side too much with youth, Sigs side a little to much with aging vets imo. Somewhere in between would be where im at. Example, there's no way im trading Patterson for an early 30s Vincent Jackson or Hopkins for Roddy White. And on the other side there's no way im trading Cruz for Randle.

Edited by fruity pebbles
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Any thoughts on here about young-but-not-super-talented possession WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Kendall Wright?

I guess Hopkins should get a bit of a bump given how young he is (22), is actually bigger than I thought (6'1'', 218), and Andre has to hang up the cleats eventually (will be 33). But he's really just a possession receiver, possibly in an ideal situation starting in 2015.

Wright is in a similar boat IMO, but isn't as young, or as big, and might not even be the best WR on his team.

Seems like both guys are probably solid PPR WR3s, but do they really belong in the top 20, over the likes A.Brown, Floyd, Marshall, Garcon, Nelson, and Cruz?

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/46442/69/2014-dynasty-rankings---wr

I'm not really a Hopkins guy. They've got him ranked at WR11 over at DLF, which seems crazy high to me for a guy who probably doesn't have the potential to ever become a perennial top 10 dynasty WR. I had him at WR23 on my latest list (incidentally one spot behind Wright). I think that's more reasonable. The big issue for me is that Hopkins has minimal vertical explosiveness. Depending on which source you trust, his 40 time was slowish. His broad jump of 9'7" is well below the cutoff for what most current unanimous elite NFL WRs did. Add that to my subjective opinion that he's not much of a big play threat and he's not somebody that I'm interested in rostering at his current price.

I would take Wright on my team as a solid WR3, but nothing more. He has some of the same issues as Hopkins in terms of being more of a pure possession WR than a hybrid with good big play skills. However, his TD total was so insanely low last year for a guy with so many catches that I think there's almost nowhere to go there but up. Even if his receptions and yards dip a little bit, there's some room for him to compensate with 2-4 more TDs.

I think both players are nice to have on your roster, but neither is really a cornerstone player IMO.

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Any thoughts on here about young-but-not-super-talented possession WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Kendall Wright?

I guess Hopkins should get a bit of a bump given how young he is (22), is actually bigger than I thought (6'1'', 218), and Andre has to hang up the cleats eventually (will be 33). But he's really just a possession receiver, possibly in an ideal situation starting in 2015.

Wright is in a similar boat IMO, but isn't as young, or as big, and might not even be the best WR on his team.

Seems like both guys are probably solid PPR WR3s, but do they really belong in the top 20, over the likes A.Brown, Floyd, Marshall, Garcon, Nelson, and Cruz?

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/46442/69/2014-dynasty-rankings---wr

I'm not really a Hopkins guy. They've got him ranked at WR11 over at DLF, which seems crazy high to me for a guy who probably doesn't have the potential to ever become a perennial top 10 dynasty WR. I had him at WR23 on my latest list (incidentally one spot behind Wright). I think that's more reasonable. The big issue for me is that Hopkins has minimal vertical explosiveness. Depending on which source you trust, his 40 time was slowish. His broad jump of 9'7" is well below the cutoff for what most current unanimous elite NFL WRs did. Add that to my subjective opinion that he's not much of a big play threat and he's not somebody that I'm interested in rostering at his current price.

I would take Wright on my team as a solid WR3, but nothing more. He has some of the same issues as Hopkins in terms of being more of a pure possession WR than a hybrid with good big play skills. However, his TD total was so insanely low last year for a guy with so many catches that I think there's almost nowhere to go there but up. Even if his receptions and yards dip a little bit, there's some room for him to compensate with 2-4 more TDs.

I think both players are nice to have on your roster, but neither is really a cornerstone player IMO.

Hopkins ran 4.46 and 4.41 at his Pro Day. Maybe he'll never be a top 5 WR but he looks talented enough to be a low WR1 for many years.

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