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Someone in one of my leagues made a deal with the devil...


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I'm in a 10-team league where I swear one of the players sold his soul to the devil to win, because every possible break is going his way. Here are the points scored against for each player so far:

817

767 (me, :cry: )

746

725

713

700

698

687

678

462 ( :shock::shock: )

The average team scores 99.9 points per game. Against him, they average 66 points per game. The lowest scoring team in the entire league has scored 608 points, for an average of 86 points per game- 20 more than this guys opponents have averaged. I have never seen anything like this in any of my fantasy football experiences. He has LITERALLY faced the lowest scoring team of the week in FIVE OUT OF THE SEVEN WEEKS, and the two times he didn't face the lowest scoring team... he faced the second lowest scoring team.

Has anyone else run into someone who's been even luckier than this SOB?

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I'm in a 10-team league where I swear one of the players sold his soul to the devil to win, because every possible break is going his way. Here are the points scored against for each player so far:

817

767 (me, :cry: )

746

725

713

700

698

687

678

462 ( :shock::shock: )

The average team scores 99.9 points per game. Against him, they average 66 points per game. The lowest scoring team in the entire league has scored 608 points, for an average of 86 points per game- 20 more than this guys opponents have averaged. I have never seen anything like this in any of my fantasy football experiences. He has LITERALLY faced the lowest scoring team of the week in FIVE OUT OF THE SEVEN WEEKS, and the two times he didn't face the lowest scoring team... he faced the second lowest scoring team.

Has anyone else run into someone who's been even luckier than this SOB?

It happened in one of my leagues last year - but evened out a bit in the second half. the guy still won the league. Obviously the devil is a lazy sod...
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I have teams in two leagues this year; in one league, my team is undefeated and has the lowest opponents' total score, every team seems to catch the flu when I play them. In the other league I have a vastly better team that is only 4-3, and nothing seems to go right. Last week on the 4-3 team my backup QB, 2 backup RBs and 2 backup WRs all outscored the starters. Can't really explain any of it.

One consolation, in your league the #1 team will probably get knocked out in the first week of playoffs when the lowest ranked team puts up its best week of the year.

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Another endorsement for Total Points leagues.

I played in a total pts league once and half the league is usually out of it by mid-season. That doesn't help keep a league active at all. Total pts leagues are boring as hell.
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Your whole post is irrelevant without posting his W-L record.So what, if he's 0-7?

He's 7-0. As long as he doesn't post the lowest score of the entire week (which he hasn't yet), there's no way he could have lost- as I said, he's faced the lowest score 5 times, and the second-lowest score twice.
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Another endorsement for Total Points leagues.

I played in a total pts league once and half the league is usually out of it by mid-season. That doesn't help keep a league active at all. Total pts leagues are boring as hell.
What about splitting the pot between the total points winner and the winner of the playoffs? I suggested this for this season in one of my leagues, but it didn't pass.
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Your whole post is irrelevant without posting his W-L record.So what, if he's 0-7?

:confused: Well, if he's faced the lowest scoring team 5 out of seven weeks, then I'd venture to guess he's at least 5-2. Since the other 2 weeks he faced the second lowest scoring teams, I'd guess he had a 8 out of 9 chance of winning each of those games. Chances are he is 7-0. However 6-1 and 5-2 are possible. 0-7 is not. I suppose if you want to get technical, 0-2-5 is the worst record he could possibly have.
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I am usually the polar opposite of this situation. Usually, I have a solid team all around but struggle to stay above water because it seems like I play teams on their best weeks. When I go back to look at everyone's points scored everyone had their monster games against me. Just bad luck I guess. Frustrating...but I'm still addicted.

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Three season ago put together my best team ever (on paper).

12-team league:

McNabb (QB3)

Alexander (RB1)

Martin (RB4)

Holt (WR5)

Leslie (WR23)

Shockey (TE5)

Teams average ~80 points a game in this league.

Finished with ~1200 total points for; 1325 points against (102 points a game).

No other team had more than 1150 points against that season.

Highest total points against in the league's 7 year history (minus mine): 1237.

Suffice to say, finished with a 5-8 record and missed the playoffs.

Luck goes both ways.

:ptts:

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It's going to happen that someone faces an easy schedule, and sometimes what seems easy isn't. You just need to deal with it, he makes the playoffs due to good luck, and then you see what happens. You just need to worry about you making the playoffs.

I've found schedule strength to be a major variable, and I'm in a league that handles it well, I think. Everything relates to league points:

Win = 2 league points, tie =1 point, loss = 0..

Top 4 in scoring get 2 league points, middle 4 = 1 LP, bottom 4 = 0.

So half the standings come from head-to-head, and half from how well you score.

My team is 5-2 with 2 losses to teams who set the new weekly high score for the season - not just losing to the top score of the week, but losing to the high score so far this year. It's no big deal, you take your loss and move on.

Even with this, I don't have a very high points against, partly because I've played a few bottom feeders, and I can't play the highest scoring team in the league, since it's me. I did have 1 person say that I'm lucky to have an easy schedule, but if I'm in the top 1-4 in scoring every week, playing a cellar dweller who can't score is the same as playing an average team who doesn't outperform expectations.

You might find the combo scoring & head-to-head idea a useful compromise.

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Three season ago put together my best team ever (on paper).12-team league:McNabb (QB3)Alexander (RB1)Martin (RB4)Holt (WR5)Leslie (WR23)Shockey (TE5)Teams average ~80 points a game in this league.Finished with ~1200 total points for; 1325 points against (102 points a game).No other team had more than 1150 points against that season.Highest total points against in the league's 7 year history (minus mine): 1237.Suffice to say, finished with a 5-8 record and missed the playoffs.Luck goes both ways. :ptts:

I've had that kind of season happen twice. I've also had by far the best team in a redraft league, only to go on to face waiver wire pickups Patrick Jeffers and Tony Banks in the championship game and watch them destroy my squad. Of course, OTOH, I've also reached the championship game with an extremely mediocre squad that had no business being there. I just keep my nose to the grindstone and do with the animal entrails and the little voices in my head tell me to do. :shrug:
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Amazingly, one team exists in every league that has the least amount of points against. Seems extreme in your league, but it happens. I'd bet my next paycheck that average goes up over the second half of the season.

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Your whole post is irrelevant without posting his W-L record.So what, if he's 0-7?

Based on the information in the first post, his team can't possible be anything worse than 5-2Edit: Whoops, I'm way behind on this one!In one of my redraft leagues I'm in last place in a 6 team division with only 2 wins and have scored just as many points as the 1st place team that has only lost one game. Stuff happens sometimes!
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It's going to happen that someone faces an easy schedule, and sometimes what seems easy isn't. You just need to deal with it, he makes the playoffs due to good luck, and then you see what happens. You just need to worry about you making the playoffs.I've found schedule strength to be a major variable, and I'm in a league that handles it well, I think. Everything relates to league points:Win = 2 league points, tie =1 point, loss = 0..Top 4 in scoring get 2 league points, middle 4 = 1 LP, bottom 4 = 0.So half the standings come from head-to-head, and half from how well you score. My team is 5-2 with 2 losses to teams who set the new weekly high score for the season - not just losing to the top score of the week, but losing to the high score so far this year. It's no big deal, you take your loss and move on.Even with this, I don't have a very high points against, partly because I've played a few bottom feeders, and I can't play the highest scoring team in the league, since it's me. I did have 1 person say that I'm lucky to have an easy schedule, but if I'm in the top 1-4 in scoring every week, playing a cellar dweller who can't score is the same as playing an average team who doesn't outperform expectations.You might find the combo scoring & head-to-head idea a useful compromise.

This is the Antssports scoring format...and I agree that it goes a long way in smoothing out anomalies such as SSOG brings up.
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Baby even the losers

Get lucky sometimes

Even the losers

Keep a little bit of pride

They get lucky sometimes

--Tom Petty

Since it seems he's already faced a softer (lucky) schedule, things are likely to get worse for him. Winning ugly doesn't usually work through the playoffs.

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In a 12 team, 3 division league the three top scoring teams are all in the same division. The worst record in the division is 4-3 and that is only because we have all played each other once already and beat on each other.

The good news is we get to finish weeks 12-14 against each other as well, probably beating each other enough that other teams squeak into the wildcard spots.

:wall:

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I'm in a 10-team league where I swear one of the players sold his soul to the devil to win, because every possible break is going his way. Here are the points scored against for each player so far:

817

767 (me, :cry: )

746

725

713

700

698

687

678

462 ( :shock::shock: )

The average team scores 99.9 points per game. Against him, they average 66 points per game. The lowest scoring team in the entire league has scored 608 points, for an average of 86 points per game- 20 more than this guys opponents have averaged. I have never seen anything like this in any of my fantasy football experiences. He has LITERALLY faced the lowest scoring team of the week in FIVE OUT OF THE SEVEN WEEKS, and the two times he didn't face the lowest scoring team... he faced the second lowest scoring team.

Has anyone else run into someone who's been even luckier than this SOB?

I have close to the opposite going on. I every week I have faced one of the top 3 point getters. I am second in the league in points scored but hoping to make a wild card at 4-3.

That being the case I have played in total points leagues, I would never switch back.

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we've used two head to head games every week to minimize this effect - basically, if you have the 2nd highest total and happen to play the guy with the highest total, well, at least you win one game. It seemed to work out really well, and made things much easier when we had an odd number of teams - we didn't have to have any bye weeks.

We dropped this system because some guys favored the direct head to head competition, and watching two opponents rosters seemed to be too much for them to handle. They claimed more games watered down the importance of the games (I say it made a 2-0 weekend even more sweet). Needless to say, most of these guys don't do multiple leagues.

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Another endorsement for Total Points leagues.

I played in a total pts league once and half the league is usually out of it by mid-season. That doesn't help keep a league active at all. Total pts leagues are boring as hell.
I have only been in a league like this once, and had the same experience. Head to head adds a lot of excitement to a league even though it seems unfair at times.I guess that's why we :ptts: so much ...
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We've gone to a power rankings system this year that has been VERY well-received. Ranks teams 1-10 in each of three categories: total points, head to head, and all-play record. Top team in each category gets 10, 2nd gets 9...so on. So th best possible ranking is 30 points if you're first in every category.

Some don't like the luck involved in head-to-head but some don't like the blandness of total points....this is a nice balance.

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After 7 weeks in our 12 team league, my division leader is 6-1 with 852 points.

I am 1-6 with 822 points.

The difference? He has 706 points scored against him, and I have 918 points scored against me.

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Amazingly, one team exists in every league that has the least amount of points against. Seems extreme in your league, but it happens. I'd bet my next paycheck that average goes up over the second half of the season.

I'm not complaining or pointing to the shirt, I'm just saying that I've never before encountered a disparity THAT PRONOUNCED between the lowest score-facer and the second lowest score-facer. Has anyone else?
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Another endorsement for Total Points leagues.

I played in a total pts league once and half the league is usually out of it by mid-season. That doesn't help keep a league active at all. Total pts leagues are boring as hell.
I think a much better option than total points leagues is to go to double headers in head to head games each week. The more games you play, the more that your results will converge to the true average. And just going to double headers is a big difference vs single games, without having to go as far as playing every team every week.My dynasty league has triple headers weeks 1, 2, 11 and 12 vs division foes, and double-headers weeks 3-10 (the bye weeks at least before this year's change) vs out-of-division foes. So you play everyone in division 4 times and out of division twice.
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Last year the 9th highest point total (10 team league) made the playoffs. This year the same guy is 7th in total points and looks like he will make the playoffs again. He is also the commish. It does seem unfair but we have had a lot of fun questioning his integrity (only in jest) the last 2 years.

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I've done an analysis on my main league's scoring patterns before and found that while both points scored and points against correlate very strongly with won-loss record (the latter one negatively of course) - points against was a stronger correlation. My conclusion from this backs what somebody else has already pointed out - it's better to be lucky than good.

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I've done an analysis on my main league's scoring patterns before and found that while both points scored and points against correlate very strongly with won-loss record (the latter one negatively of course) - points against was a stronger correlation. My conclusion from this backs what somebody else has already pointed out - it's better to be lucky than good.

or, don't be that guy that scores low and gives your opponent an easy win.
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Another endorsement for Total Points leagues.

I played in a total pts league once and half the league is usually out of it by mid-season. That doesn't help keep a league active at all. Total pts leagues are boring as hell.
What about splitting the pot between the total points winner and the winner of the playoffs? I suggested this for this season in one of my leagues, but it didn't pass.
We do this. :thumbup: I think it works well. We pay 1st, 2nd, 3rd in the playoffs and then the total points winner gets a good chunk of change.
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Not sure if league software can handle this or not, but I was thinking it would be interesting to split wins and losses. If it is a 12 team league, the top six scorers would get a win, and the bottom six would get a loss. The only time there would be a tie is if team #6 and #7 had the same score.

Head to Head is really just luck of the draw. The same way your low scoring team is getting a great record, a high scoring team can be hitting the bottom. Here is my dynasty record...

Week 1 I lost to the highest scorer with the second highest points

Week 2 it happened again!

Week 3 had a good score but lost

Week 4 I was the highest scorer Finally and got my first win

Week 5 had a good score but lost

Week 6 I tied - we both had the high score of the week (and of the season for that matter)

Week 7 I won outright

So my record is 2-4-1 and second in overall points. Like I said, head to head is just luck of the draw.

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I cant wait for when the NFL to award wins to teams that outscore opponents they were not even playing. Just think, a real NFL team could go 31-0 if they are able to put up 80 points on a weak defense. Then the team who scores 14 but holds their true opponent to 7 actually goes 1-30. Sounds like a real fun league.

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My league is hilarious this year. 12 teams split into 3 divisions with 4 in each. In my division, everyone is 3-4. In fact, only 3 teams are above .500. Everyone else is under .500. 7 teams are 3-4. Two more are 2-5.

Oh, and 6 teams make the playoffs lol.

And there are no head-to-head matchups in my division this week. We can all lose and be 3-5.

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Another endorsement for Total Points leagues.

I agree. One of the things you cannot control is the other team's match ups. You get what the NFL delivers. On top of that there are the luck of the draw for bye weeks.Some of the leagues I'm in use H2H (because they're still fun) to settle conference championships and then we use total points to decide the remaining playoff teams. It's possible for all the wildcard teams to come from the same division, though not likey.This allows for teams that had bad match ups to not be penalized and locked out of the playoffs. To date, no team has been screwed. The best teams always get in over the lesser teams. I highly recommend it! :thumbup:
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RE: Total Points vs. W/L Record, our league uses a blend. ;)

It's a 12 team league. 3 divisions of 4 teams. Each division winner (based on record) goes to playoffs and gets a good chunk of change for being div. winner.

The next 3 non-division winners with the highest total points goes to the playoffs. So technically, 4 people from the same division can go to the playoffs (if those 3 teams had highest total points).

I'm sure you could blend with 10 teamers and 8 teamers, too.

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Victory Points are the way to go.

/hijack/How do you have yours set up? We give 3pts for a win 2 for a tie -1 for a loss. Three for top 3rd in points, 2 for middle 3rd, 1 for bottom 3rd./hijack/
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Dont worry, that guy will get knocked out of the playoffs by one of the better teams. His luck cant last all season (Well, it can, but chances are it wont)

I'm not worried, and as for him getting knocked out by one of the better teams... he *IS* one of the better teams. I believe he's #1 in total points, and #2 in all-play record. I'm not whining about a guy who just got lucky... like I said, I'm simply pointing out how HUGE the disparity is between his schedule and everyone else's. Not as a complaint, but as a point of curiousity, because I've never seen anything like this before. I mean, 5 of 7 games against the lowest scorer, and the other two against the 2nd-lowest scorer! That's unreal!
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A 14 man league im in has 5 WC spots by record, and then the 6th spot is the team with the most points that is not already in. This seems to be one of the better ways to do it.

We do this in one of my 12 team leagues, but 2 of the 6 get in on highest points that aren't already in by record. A very good way to eliminate some of the luck factor yet still have H2H be the point of emphasis.
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