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UFC wagering: breaking news - judging is so terrible it got me to return here to update this thread title (8 Viewers)

man sportsbook really got into MMA yesterday. i already mentioned they listed numbers for the Dream show, but now they added a coupple more for UFC 99 and some other interesting upcoming one's:

WEC: Mike Brown (ev) vs Urijah Faber (-130)

UFC 101: BJ Penn (-145) vs. Kenny Florian (+115)

Anderson Silva (-240) vs. Forrest Griffin (+190) - this one may have moved from last night a little

Swick (-210) vs. Ben Saunders (+170)

Marcus Davis (-210) vs. Dan Hardy (+170)

Jon Jones (-500) vs. Jake O'Brien (+300)

Really interesting numbers there i think. I don't know if we will see Faber, Penn or Silva for this low again for some time. Any thoughts? i have a ton, but have already blabbered on enough the last 2 days here. there are some other interesting lines up too, and those 3 on top stuck out to me. I think a few of these lines will start to move fast, but i am really not sure

And i would love to hear people's thoughts on the upcoming DREAM show. I think that is going to be a real good show too, with a stacked card. I assume Kid Yamamoto is the favorite to win the featherweight GP, but are there other guys out there who can compete for it?

 
modogg said:
man sportsbook really got into MMA yesterday. i already mentioned they listed numbers for the Dream show, but now they added a coupple more for UFC 99 and some other interesting upcoming one's:WEC: Mike Brown (ev) vs Urijah Faber (-130)UFC 101: BJ Penn (-145) vs. Kenny Florian (+115)Anderson Silva (-240) vs. Forrest Griffin (+190) - this one may have moved from last night a littleSwick (-210) vs. Ben Saunders (+170)Marcus Davis (-210) vs. Dan Hardy (+170)Jon Jones (-500) vs. Jake O'Brien (+300)Really interesting numbers there i think. I don't know if we will see Faber, Penn or Silva for this low again for some time. Any thoughts? i have a ton, but have already blabbered on enough the last 2 days here. there are some other interesting lines up too, and those 3 on top stuck out to me. I think a few of these lines will start to move fast, but i am really not sureAnd i would love to hear people's thoughts on the upcoming DREAM show. I think that is going to be a real good show too, with a stacked card. I assume Kid Yamamoto is the favorite to win the featherweight GP, but are there other guys out there who can compete for it?
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I think if you like Penn, you take him now. I'm going to be backing Florian in this one, so I'm going to wait a while. I think I can get a better price.
 
sheerterror said:
modogg said:
man sportsbook really got into MMA yesterday. i already mentioned they listed numbers for the Dream show, but now they added a coupple more for UFC 99 and some other interesting upcoming one's:WEC: Mike Brown (ev) vs Urijah Faber (-130)UFC 101: BJ Penn (-145) vs. Kenny Florian (+115)Anderson Silva (-240) vs. Forrest Griffin (+190) - this one may have moved from last night a littleSwick (-210) vs. Ben Saunders (+170)Marcus Davis (-210) vs. Dan Hardy (+170)Jon Jones (-500) vs. Jake O'Brien (+300)Really interesting numbers there i think. I don't know if we will see Faber, Penn or Silva for this low again for some time. Any thoughts? i have a ton, but have already blabbered on enough the last 2 days here. there are some other interesting lines up too, and those 3 on top stuck out to me. I think a few of these lines will start to move fast, but i am really not sureAnd i would love to hear people's thoughts on the upcoming DREAM show. I think that is going to be a real good show too, with a stacked card. I assume Kid Yamamoto is the favorite to win the featherweight GP, but are there other guys out there who can compete for it?
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I think if you like Penn, you take him now. I'm going to be backing Florian in this one, so I'm going to wait a while. I think I can get a better price.
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me too actually. i just got tickets for the event so i will be treading lightly on whatever i wager (and don't get me started with getting tickets for a live show, f'n scalpers always win :thumbup: ), but i have liked Florian in this one, even before GSP beat Penn.
 
sheerterror said:
I was thinking of making the trip down to Philly. How much did tickets run you?
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they were a little steep, but considering what i have been throwing around on internet gambling not a whole lot. the upper level was $50 and $100, and the lower level seats were $200, $300, $400, and $600 for the floor. we paid $200 for lower level, but I was hoping we would have got better.
 
I locked in Silva at -240. I don't really like betting against Forest because the guy has so much damn heart and could probably beat anyone any given Saturday, but that line is only going to get worse IMO. Griffin has the tendency to take punches and is a bit slow, those 2 things will likely be his undoing against the Spider.

 
Posted in the NBA thread but here are my plays for UFC98:

Serra +200

Machida -188

Kaplan +110

Sherk -333

Parlay: Yoshida (-500) / Nover (-450) / Barry (-350)

 
Yuck, Kaplan made Junie Browning look good - what do you guys see there that you like it?

I do think people are sleeping on K-Sos, and I may look to make a play on him, need to try to see what Gusmao is all about

 
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Is anybody really interested in Hughes at that price? This seems like a toss up fight to me. Is there any way to find out who will be judging the fight beforehand and what other fights they've scored in the past? This one has "Serra scores on the feet, Hughes gets a takedown but Serra avoids damage" for 3 rounds written all over it. 29-28, 28-29, 29-28. If I knew what kind of style the judges have preferred in the past, I think I'd have a much better shot at picking this one.

 
modogg said:
man sportsbook really got into MMA yesterday. i already mentioned they listed numbers for the Dream show, but now they added a coupple more for UFC 99 and some other interesting upcoming one's:WEC: Mike Brown (ev) vs Urijah Faber (-130)UFC 101: BJ Penn (-145) vs. Kenny Florian (+115)Anderson Silva (-240) vs. Forrest Griffin (+190) - this one may have moved from last night a littleSwick (-210) vs. Ben Saunders (+170)Marcus Davis (-210) vs. Dan Hardy (+170)Jon Jones (-500) vs. Jake O'Brien (+300)Really interesting numbers there i think. I don't know if we will see Faber, Penn or Silva for this low again for some time. Any thoughts? i have a ton, but have already blabbered on enough the last 2 days here. there are some other interesting lines up too, and those 3 on top stuck out to me. I think a few of these lines will start to move fast, but i am really not sureAnd i would love to hear people's thoughts on the upcoming DREAM show. I think that is going to be a real good show too, with a stacked card. I assume Kid Yamamoto is the favorite to win the featherweight GP, but are there other guys out there who can compete for it?
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The Davis/Hardy line looks really nice. I've been pretty high on Hardy for a while now, and he has what it takes to pull this one off. His kickboxing is damn good, with good angles and an excellent understanding of distance. Davis' main advantage is his punching power, but I like Hardy's chances if he avoids turning it into an all-out brawl (which he should).
 
Pick said:
No-brainer to buy this PPV, right?
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yeah i would say so. The UFC countdown is on Spike tonight (11 pm i think) and people who have already seen it says it is a good one. I really think Evans-Machida will be such a good fight that may go under-appreciated. I was just reading an old article on Machida i have and they talked about a boxer i was unfamiliar with, Willie Pep. Guy said he would go a championship fight without getting hit once in the first 3 rounds and he did it. They say he was easily top 5-6 all time boxers but he suffered from same thing Machida does. The article did talk about how the last year and a half Machida and his training team have focused on finishing fights and how he could do this while keeping the integrity of his style. I'm rambling so sorry, but yeah this card will be great and the strategy between Greg Jackson and Machida will be superb to watch.
 
Tough As Nails said:
Is anybody really interested in Hughes at that price? This seems like a toss up fight to me. Is there any way to find out who will be judging the fight beforehand and what other fights they've scored in the past? This one has "Serra scores on the feet, Hughes gets a takedown but Serra avoids damage" for 3 rounds written all over it. 29-28, 28-29, 29-28. If I knew what kind of style the judges have preferred in the past, I think I'd have a much better shot at picking this one.
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for as obvious as this fight seems, i am really not sure what to expect. Both guys are moving on with starting their gyms and everything, and i am really not sure what to expect. and knowing the judges doesn't always help. Only one i think i could rely on is if i knew Cecil Peoples was judging a fight there would be zero certainty to what the result would be. That guy i think never has the same scoring card as anybody elseand Abrantes, i agree with you about Hardy. I was surprised at the line a bit too. Hardy isn't a slouch by any means, his last fight was the one with Rory Markham right? i think he is worth a consideration too. Davis has impressed me with the evolution of his fight game in each fight, but the line is a little out of whack
 
Pick said:
No-brainer to buy this PPV, right?
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Eh. I think Serra-Hughes will be really good. Evans-Machida may end up looking a lot like Lietes-Silva or Sylvia-AA. Evens has said Machida looks good because fighters make him look good by playing into his style. He said "I'm going to make his style look ugly". This tells me he plans on doing a lot of backing up and head-bobbing. Evans is very cautious and very disciplined. Now that he is the champ he knows fighters have to beat him. He will be more cautious than ever. I hope I am wrong and Machida kicks Evans' head off his shoulders.Sherk-Edgar is going to look a lot like Sherk-Griffin. Exciting, but unfulfilling. I really wish Larson-Wilson made the TV card. Hopefully they'll have time to show it, but I'm not sure they will. I think we see 3 decisions out of the 5 TV fights.
 
modogg said:
Pick said:
No-brainer to buy this PPV, right?
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yeah i would say so. The UFC countdown is on Spike tonight (11 pm i think) and people who have already seen it says it is a good one. I really think Evans-Machida will be such a good fight that may go under-appreciated. I was just reading an old article on Machida i have and they talked about a boxer i was unfamiliar with, Willie Pep. Guy said he would go a championship fight without getting hit once in the first 3 rounds and he did it. They say he was easily top 5-6 all time boxers but he suffered from same thing Machida does. The article did talk about how the last year and a half Machida and his training team have focused on finishing fights and how he could do this while keeping the integrity of his style. I'm rambling so sorry, but yeah this card will be great and the strategy between Greg Jackson and Machida will be superb to watch.
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What do they suffer from?
 
Bobcat10 said:
modogg said:
Pick said:
No-brainer to buy this PPV, right?
Click to expand...
yeah i would say so. The UFC countdown is on Spike tonight (11 pm i think) and people who have already seen it says it is a good one. I really think Evans-Machida will be such a good fight that may go under-appreciated. I was just reading an old article on Machida i have and they talked about a boxer i was unfamiliar with, Willie Pep. Guy said he would go a championship fight without getting hit once in the first 3 rounds and he did it. They say he was easily top 5-6 all time boxers but he suffered from same thing Machida does. The article did talk about how the last year and a half Machida and his training team have focused on finishing fights and how he could do this while keeping the integrity of his style. I'm rambling so sorry, but yeah this card will be great and the strategy between Greg Jackson and Machida will be superb to watch.
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What do they suffer from?
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they suffer from a general lack of appreciation from the mainstream fan, and unfortunately a part of boxing and MMA is entertaining the fans. I have always felt Ali was over-rated but he could sell a fight better than anybody. The article i read compared Jake Lamotta to Willie Pep. Your general fan would much rather see Lamotta and feels he is better maybe because of name recognition than Pep, when any boxing expert would say (according to this article i read) that Pep would easily win that fight 10 out of 10 times. Same idea with why a guy like Yushin Okami was never pushed for a title shot, etc. I think it will be a superb fight, but to the general public it may not be. Maybe to sum it up, think of a guy in a bar watching MMA and he sees Machida and he sees Houston Alexander. i would bet the guy walks away and remembers Alexander more. Same idea with Machida's fight against Sokoudjou.
 
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modogg said:
man sportsbook really got into MMA yesterday. i already mentioned they listed numbers for the Dream show, but now they added a coupple more for UFC 99 and some other interesting upcoming one's:WEC: Mike Brown (ev) vs Urijah Faber (-130)UFC 101: BJ Penn (-145) vs. Kenny Florian (+115)Anderson Silva (-240) vs. Forrest Griffin (+190) - this one may have moved from last night a littleSwick (-210) vs. Ben Saunders (+170)Marcus Davis (-210) vs. Dan Hardy (+170)Jon Jones (-500) vs. Jake O'Brien (+300)Really interesting numbers there i think. I don't know if we will see Faber, Penn or Silva for this low again for some time. Any thoughts? i have a ton, but have already blabbered on enough the last 2 days here. there are some other interesting lines up too, and those 3 on top stuck out to me. I think a few of these lines will start to move fast, but i am really not sureAnd i would love to hear people's thoughts on the upcoming DREAM show. I think that is going to be a real good show too, with a stacked card. I assume Kid Yamamoto is the favorite to win the featherweight GP, but are there other guys out there who can compete for it?
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That is amazing value for O'Brien. Jones showed that is isn't exactly a cardio machine against Bonnar. O'Brien is a good enough wrestler to lay on him for three rounds.
 
Sebowski said:
modogg said:
man sportsbook really got into MMA yesterday. i already mentioned they listed numbers for the Dream show, but now they added a coupple more for UFC 99 and some other interesting upcoming one's:WEC: Mike Brown (ev) vs Urijah Faber (-130)UFC 101: BJ Penn (-145) vs. Kenny Florian (+115)Anderson Silva (-240) vs. Forrest Griffin (+190) - this one may have moved from last night a littleSwick (-210) vs. Ben Saunders (+170)Marcus Davis (-210) vs. Dan Hardy (+170)Jon Jones (-500) vs. Jake O'Brien (+300)Really interesting numbers there i think. I don't know if we will see Faber, Penn or Silva for this low again for some time. Any thoughts? i have a ton, but have already blabbered on enough the last 2 days here. there are some other interesting lines up too, and those 3 on top stuck out to me. I think a few of these lines will start to move fast, but i am really not sureAnd i would love to hear people's thoughts on the upcoming DREAM show. I think that is going to be a real good show too, with a stacked card. I assume Kid Yamamoto is the favorite to win the featherweight GP, but are there other guys out there who can compete for it?
Click to expand...
That is amazing value for O'Brien. Jones showed that is isn't exactly a cardio machine against Bonnar. O'Brien is a good enough wrestler to lay on him for three rounds.
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you make a good point. I am Jon Jones fan and I think he wins the fight, but certainly not that confident he wins. O' Brien beat Heath Herring right?
 
modogg said:
Sebowski said:
modogg said:
man sportsbook really got into MMA yesterday. i already mentioned they listed numbers for the Dream show, but now they added a coupple more for UFC 99 and some other interesting upcoming one's:WEC: Mike Brown (ev) vs Urijah Faber (-130)UFC 101: BJ Penn (-145) vs. Kenny Florian (+115)Anderson Silva (-240) vs. Forrest Griffin (+190) - this one may have moved from last night a littleSwick (-210) vs. Ben Saunders (+170)Marcus Davis (-210) vs. Dan Hardy (+170)Jon Jones (-500) vs. Jake O'Brien (+300)Really interesting numbers there i think. I don't know if we will see Faber, Penn or Silva for this low again for some time. Any thoughts? i have a ton, but have already blabbered on enough the last 2 days here. there are some other interesting lines up too, and those 3 on top stuck out to me. I think a few of these lines will start to move fast, but i am really not sureAnd i would love to hear people's thoughts on the upcoming DREAM show. I think that is going to be a real good show too, with a stacked card. I assume Kid Yamamoto is the favorite to win the featherweight GP, but are there other guys out there who can compete for it?
Click to expand...
That is amazing value for O'Brien. Jones showed that is isn't exactly a cardio machine against Bonnar. O'Brien is a good enough wrestler to lay on him for three rounds.
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you make a good point. I am Jon Jones fan and I think he wins the fight, but certainly not that confident he wins. O' Brien beat Heath Herring right?
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Yup. Herring's UFC debit I believe. Jake took him down and held on for three rounds.
 
Performify's Picks for UFC 98

Lyoto Machida (-220) : 4.4 units to win 2 units
Matt Hughes (-260) : 2.6u to win 1u
Sean Sherk (-300) : 6u to win 2u
Brock Larson (-325) : 3.25u to win 1u
Phillipe Nover (-345) : 1.73u to win .5u
Krzysztof Soszynski (+135) : .4u to win .54u
Dave Kaplan (+135) : .4u to win .54u
 
sheerterror said:
Clayton Gray said:
Performify's Picks for UFC 98

Lyoto Machida (-220) : 4.4 units to win 2 units
Matt Hughes (-260) : 2.6u to win 1u
Sean Sherk (-300) : 6u to win 2u
Brock Larson (-325) : 3.25u to win 1u
Phillipe Nover (-345) : 1.73u to win .5u
Krzysztof Soszynski (+135) : .4u to win .54u
Dave Kaplan (+135) : .4u to win .54u
Click to expand...
Glad to see Perf on Machida and Sherk. He's been crushing it the last few months.
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Has he been crushing it by taking all the favorites like that though? Taking 4 guys that are -250 or bigger favorites is going to make you seem successful on the surface every time. I could bet on the Patriots every single game and claim that I'm winning at an 80% clip. But that doesn't mean I'm winning money.
 
Tough As Nails said:
sheerterror said:
Clayton Gray said:
Performify's Picks for UFC 98

Lyoto Machida (-220) : 4.4 units to win 2 units
Matt Hughes (-260) : 2.6u to win 1u
Sean Sherk (-300) : 6u to win 2u
Brock Larson (-325) : 3.25u to win 1u
Phillipe Nover (-345) : 1.73u to win .5u
Krzysztof Soszynski (+135) : .4u to win .54u
Dave Kaplan (+135) : .4u to win .54u
Click to expand...
Glad to see Perf on Machida and Sherk. He's been crushing it the last few months.
Click to expand...
Has he been crushing it by taking all the favorites like that though? Taking 4 guys that are -250 or bigger favorites is going to make you seem successful on the surface every time. I could bet on the Patriots every single game and claim that I'm winning at an 80% clip. But that doesn't mean I'm winning money.
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His record since UFC 75 is 79-57 +35.5u, hitting at 58%. He's not just grabbing all favorites all the time, and hitting at a high rate but barely showing profit. I've found that in MMA more than any other sport, the guy who is "supposed to win" wins more often than not. Of course, 1 loss on a stiff favorite could screw your whole card up. I don't like that he's got 5 straight plays on guys that are -200 or greater because he's going to need to go 4-1 and needs wins on both Sherk and Machida to show profit - but, you can't ignore results. I don't think he's been wrong on a large favorite since Nog vs. Mir (and most people, myself on that one, had their lunch eaten that night.) He's had many nice underdog wins in the past too - he's just been on a very nice streak of identifying how the fight is going to go down. I still remember following him on Dos Santos vs. Werdum back in October - JDS was like a +400 dog and he won via TKO and is now one of the top prospects in the HW division.Anyway, done sounding like a Performify fanboy - I just enjoy using his writeups as confirmation for some of my opinions. I don't disagree with most of his picks here, so I'll likely tail some of the undercard plays via parlays involving Sherk and Machida.

 
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sheerterror said:
Tough As Nails said:
sheerterror said:
Clayton Gray said:
Performify's Picks for UFC 98

Lyoto Machida (-220) : 4.4 units to win 2 units
Matt Hughes (-260) : 2.6u to win 1u
Sean Sherk (-300) : 6u to win 2u
Brock Larson (-325) : 3.25u to win 1u
Phillipe Nover (-345) : 1.73u to win .5u
Krzysztof Soszynski (+135) : .4u to win .54u
Dave Kaplan (+135) : .4u to win .54u
Click to expand...
Glad to see Perf on Machida and Sherk. He's been crushing it the last few months.
Click to expand...
Has he been crushing it by taking all the favorites like that though? Taking 4 guys that are -250 or bigger favorites is going to make you seem successful on the surface every time. I could bet on the Patriots every single game and claim that I'm winning at an 80% clip. But that doesn't mean I'm winning money.
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His record since UFC 75 is 79-57 +35.5u, hitting at 58%. He's not just grabbing all favorites all the time, and hitting at a high rate but barely showing profit. I've found that in MMA more than any other sport, the guy who is "supposed to win" wins more often than not. Of course, 1 loss on a stiff favorite could screw your whole card up. I don't like that he's got 5 straight plays on guys that are -200 or greater because he's going to need to go 4-1 and needs wins on both Sherk and Machida to show profit - but, you can't ignore results. I don't think he's been wrong on a large favorite since Nog vs. Mir (and most people, myself on that one, had their lunch eaten that night.) He's had many nice underdog wins in the past too - he's just been on a very nice streak of identifying how the fight is going to go down. I still remember following him on Dos Santos vs. Werdum back in October - JDS was like a +400 dog and he won via TKO and is now one of the top prospects in the HW division.Anyway, done sounding like a Performify fanboy - I just enjoy using his writeups as confirmation for some of my opinions. I don't disagree with most of his picks here, so I'll likely tail some of the undercard plays via parlays involving Sherk and Machida.
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All of the "experts" i have seen are on Machida. I have checked quite a few, and every single one of them in on Machida, quite a few pretty heavy and as their best bets. But I still am not that convinced. My personal strategy betting this one is if i see Rashad go near +200 again i will put $50 on him, and i will likely put Machida in a $20 parlay or 2, basically canceling out the 2 picks. I still am not sure why everybody is counting out Rashad so much. If this was Machida against Rampage i would have been all over Machida, but i just think this fight can go either way. There are so many variables that will play out. And one thing i keep thinking about is the old adage Rampage brought up, "You have to beat the champ to be the champ". Comparing to Silva-Leites, Machida will need to press the action and become more of the aggressor if the first 2 rounds are close to being even. Either way a real good fight, and i am already getting the answers ready to justify why it will be. it won't get the backlash like Silva-Leites got, but i can see some creeping in

 
Man i am putting quite a bit of money out there these days, but the odds just went up for the DREAM tournaments and i think there are some good thoughts. I know some of you guys are into the DREAM scene, so i would love any thoughts. I grabbed Moussasi at +220 and Kid Yamamoto at -130. I think both of these guys have a real good chance of winning both of these tournaments, but tournament betting can be tricky. I had Eddie Alvarez to win the tournament a year ago and i got him i think at +700 or so (honestly can't remember but i think he was the underdog in most of his fights as well). He would have probably got it too but he got hurt. any thoughts on taking these 2 bets here?

Featherweight GP:

Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs. Joe Warren*

Bibiano Fernandes vs. Masakazu Imanari*

Yoshiro Maeda vs. Hiroyuki Takaya*

Abel Cullum vs. Hideo Tokoro*

Super Hulk GP:

Mark Hunt vs. Gegard Mousasi+

Jan Nortje vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou+

Jose Canseco vs. Hong Man Choi+

Ikuhisa "Minowaman" Minowa vs. Bob Sapp+

 
:lol:
It's funny how simple twists of fate -- or in this case, horrific street violence -- can prompt a change of plans: Alistair Overeem's trainer, Bas Boon, told Fighter's Only that Overeem damaged his hand by beating up five bouncers at a nightclub. The resulting infection forced him to drop out of a planned June 6 Strikeforce title defense. (Andrei Arlovski is his rock-solid replacement.)Apparently, Overeem drew the ire of security when he didn't have any Euros to "pay the toilet woman." (In Holland, having a full bladder apparently results in some kind of surcharge.) The argument escalated, and soon Alistair and his brother, Valentijn, found themselves in a spontaneous sparring session."Three security guards dived onto Valentine and brother Alistair wanted to go back inside to help his brother," Boon said. "This resulted in five security guards in the hospital."Sounds like an instructional waiting to happen.
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SKribbles said:
:lol:

It's funny how simple twists of fate -- or in this case, horrific street violence -- can prompt a change of plans: Alistair Overeem's trainer, Bas Boon, told Fighter's Only that Overeem damaged his hand by beating up five bouncers at a nightclub. The resulting infection forced him to drop out of a planned June 6 Strikeforce title defense. (Andrei Arlovski is his rock-solid replacement.)Apparently, Overeem drew the ire of security when he didn't have any Euros to "pay the toilet woman." (In Holland, having a full bladder apparently results in some kind of surcharge.) The argument escalated, and soon Alistair and his brother, Valentijn, found themselves in a spontaneous sparring session."Three security guards dived onto Valentine and brother Alistair wanted to go back inside to help his brother," Boon said. "This resulted in five security guards in the hospital."Sounds like an instructional waiting to happen.
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Nice! ;)
 
ProMMARadio helps narrate an interesting story: Chael Sonnen, stepping in on late notice for an injured Yushin Okami, is currently walking around at 221 pounds. To make the middleweight 185-pound limit, he'll have to cut the 36 pounds in just over three weeks. Apparently, temporary relocation of organs is now an accepted weigh-in practice.Ask ESPN.com's MMA bloggerHave a question? Want to leave a comment related to this blog? Send your thoughts to jrossen@sherdog.com.Sonnen also expressed disappointment that this fight will effectively replace his UFC 102 bout with Wilson Gouveia, for which he had already agreed to an Aug. 29 date in his home state of Oregon. Strange, since he'd have a reasonable three-month buffer to prepare.Is the UFC positioning itself to cut Sonnen with a loss here, even though he's doing the ortganization a "favor" with the late hop-in?
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That is a whoole lot of weight to be cutting.
 
SKribbles said:
:goodposting:

It's funny how simple twists of fate -- or in this case, horrific street violence -- can prompt a change of plans: Alistair Overeem's trainer, Bas Boon, told Fighter's Only that Overeem damaged his hand by beating up five bouncers at a nightclub. The resulting infection forced him to drop out of a planned June 6 Strikeforce title defense. (Andrei Arlovski is his rock-solid replacement.)

Apparently, Overeem drew the ire of security when he didn't have any Euros to "pay the toilet woman." (In Holland, having a full bladder apparently results in some kind of surcharge.) The argument escalated, and soon Alistair and his brother, Valentijn, found themselves in a spontaneous sparring session.

"Three security guards dived onto Valentine and brother Alistair wanted to go back inside to help his brother," Boon said. "This resulted in five security guards in the hospital."

Sounds like an instructional waiting to happen.
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i read that earlier, man i would not want to be a bouncer when Overeem is pissed. and for anyone who cares about Wilson-Larcen, Wilson is out and Mike Pyle is in:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/5/22/88376...-mike-pyle-will

 
Man, that Machida line has dropped down to -185. That is a pretty big drop from what i saw earlier, maybe -240 or so. Any reason for this, or is the publivc coming in heavy on Rashad?

 
I can't remember but weren't Hughes and Serra supposed to fight after TUF and it got canceled because of an injury? Have they ever fought?

 
Bobcat10 said:
Pyle a big downgrade in that match?
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Wierd situation. I would say yes, but it gives Larson barely any time to prepare for Pyle. Pyle is pretty good too, but i know he didn't even bother trying to weigh in at the weigh-ins because he wasn't too close. If you are asking because you are thinking Larson is a stronger bet right now, i would say no. But of course, you have the thing with Pyle cutting a ton of weight tonight to make weight and may come in looking like Lutter when he couldn't make weight against Silva. Man what a terrible answer by me, sorry Bobcat. I guess basically it doesn't solidify anythingAnd Pick, no Hughes and Serra haven't fought. They were supposed to then Serra's back went out, and then I think it was Hughes' knee that got messed up
 
modogg said:
Bobcat10 said:
Pyle a big downgrade in that match?
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Wierd situation. I would say yes, but it gives Larson barely any time to prepare for Pyle. Pyle is pretty good too, but i know he didn't even bother trying to weigh in at the weigh-ins because he wasn't too close. If you are asking because you are thinking Larson is a stronger bet right now, i would say no. But of course, you have the thing with Pyle cutting a ton of weight tonight to make weight and may come in looking like Lutter when he couldn't make weight against Silva. Man what a terrible answer by me, sorry Bobcat. I guess basically it doesn't solidify anythingAnd Pick, no Hughes and Serra haven't fought. They were supposed to then Serra's back went out, and then I think it was Hughes' knee that got messed up
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Good answer I'd say. Just tell it like it is. Maybe somebody else will have something to add. From what you wrote, though, I'd say it's still a strong bet on Larson, especially if Pyle is trying to make weight. Neither guy has had time to prepare for the other.
 
Just finalized my plays. Not too much more for me to add to the main fights that hasn't been discussed a ton by everybody already.

Lyoto Machida -200, -205 and -185: to win 5 units. We see a new champion tonight. I've been waiting for this fight since it was announced and have done a good deal of fight watching in preparation for betting this. I truly don't believe there is anyway that Rashad can win this fight other than by KO. Machida is extremely elusive and avoids taking damage like no other. He's also never been outpointed in a single round in his professional MMA career. We all know Rashad tends to "give away" rounds early, before coming from behind, and as in the Liddell and Griffin fights, winning via KO after having been behind. Machida is the last guy you can do this against. If he wins the first two rounds, he'll go into "prevent defense" and that's going to lead to Rashad being more the aggressor, which will play right into Machida's counter style, and Evans will end up getting finished early. I personally believe this is the most likely outcome. I think the probability of Evans catching Machida the way he has caught Chuck and Forest in his last two fights is incredibly low, given the quickness, elusiveness and defensive prowess of Machida. Liddell had his hands at his sides when he got caught, and Forest I believe got his leg caught before flailing on the ground and getting finished via GnP. Rashad's previous 2 fights prior to that? An unimpressive split decision victory over an undersized, overrated Mike Bisping and a draw to Tito Oritz that should have been a loss, had Tito not been deducted a point for grabbing the cage. Rashad is a very talented fighter, but his reputation has been built completely off of his previous 2 wins in which his greatest strength played into his opponents' greatest weaknesses. This situation simply doesn't exist in the title fight tonight, and I think Lyoto cruises to a unanimous decision tonight if Rashad remains patient; a 3rd or 4th round stoppage of some sort if he falls behind and starts swinging for Machida hoping to connect with the homerun shot.

Sean Sherk -280: to win 2.5 units. I honestly feel this is the best bet on the card. I can only explain that it's a smaller play for me than Lyoto because I'm an idiot. Sherk should have no problem controlling the smaller, weaker Edgar with his superior size, strength and wrestling. Even if Sherk decides to stand and box, Edgar doesn't have the power to stop him (Sherk's been stopped twice in the UFC, by BJ Penn and GSP - detecting a pattern here?) I like Edgar and think he has a promising future, but this one, as has been stated a few times in this thread already, should go the same way his fight against Gray Maynard did.

Matt Serra +240: Risking .25u. More of an action play and "I hope he beats Hughes' ###" angle than anything. In their primes, Hughes takes this one with ease. Tonight? With all the bad blood, Serra seemingly 110% hellbent on putting a licking on Hughes as they both hang up the gloves for good, and Hughes looking very old his last two fights where his famous take you down and pound you out style was overmatched - I think Serra's got a small chance should he keep the fight standing the whole time. Or maybe it will go to the ground, and we'll see a submission from this mythical BJJ blackbelt.

K-Sos +125 .5u

Dan Miller -200 1u: Chael Sonnen is coming into this fight on short notice, overweight and likely out of shape. He's got great wrestling but is coming from a camp that notoriously sucks at gameplanning around opposing fighters' strength. Miller's on a roll, and I think he subs Sonnen pretty easily here.

Also taking shots on a few parlays:

Sherk/Yoshida/Nover

Sherk/Barry/Miller/Prof. X

Sherk/Barry/Miller/Prof. X/Machida

 
sheerterror said:
Just finalized my plays. Not too much more for me to add to the main fights that hasn't been discussed a ton by everybody already.

Lyoto Machida -200, -205 and -185: to win 5 units. We see a new champion tonight. I've been waiting for this fight since it was announced and have done a good deal of fight watching in preparation for betting this. I truly don't believe there is anyway that Rashad can win this fight other than by KO. Machida is extremely elusive and avoids taking damage like no other. He's also never been outpointed in a single round in his professional MMA career. We all know Rashad tends to "give away" rounds early, before coming from behind, and as in the Liddell and Griffin fights, winning via KO after having been behind. Machida is the last guy you can do this against. If he wins the first two rounds, he'll go into "prevent defense" and that's going to lead to Rashad being more the aggressor, which will play right into Machida's counter style, and Evans will end up getting finished early. I personally believe this is the most likely outcome. I think the probability of Evans catching Machida the way he has caught Chuck and Forest in his last two fights is incredibly low, given the quickness, elusiveness and defensive prowess of Machida. Liddell had his hands at his sides when he got caught, and Forest I believe got his leg caught before flailing on the ground and getting finished via GnP. Rashad's previous 2 fights prior to that? An unimpressive split decision victory over an undersized, overrated Mike Bisping and a draw to Tito Oritz that should have been a loss, had Tito not been deducted a point for grabbing the cage. Rashad is a very talented fighter, but his reputation has been built completely off of his previous 2 wins in which his greatest strength played into his opponents' greatest weaknesses. This situation simply doesn't exist in the title fight tonight, and I think Lyoto cruises to a unanimous decision tonight if Rashad remains patient; a 3rd or 4th round stoppage of some sort if he falls behind and starts swinging for Machida hoping to connect with the homerun shot.

Sean Sherk -280: to win 2.5 units. I honestly feel this is the best bet on the card. I can only explain that it's a smaller play for me than Lyoto because I'm an idiot. Sherk should have no problem controlling the smaller, weaker Edgar with his superior size, strength and wrestling. Even if Sherk decides to stand and box, Edgar doesn't have the power to stop him (Sherk's been stopped twice in the UFC, by BJ Penn and GSP - detecting a pattern here?) I like Edgar and think he has a promising future, but this one, as has been stated a few times in this thread already, should go the same way his fight against Gray Maynard did.

Matt Serra +240: Risking .25u. More of an action play and "I hope he beats Hughes' ###" angle than anything. In their primes, Hughes takes this one with ease. Tonight? With all the bad blood, Serra seemingly 110% hellbent on putting a licking on Hughes as they both hang up the gloves for good, and Hughes looking very old his last two fights where his famous take you down and pound you out style was overmatched - I think Serra's got a small chance should he keep the fight standing the whole time. Or maybe it will go to the ground, and we'll see a submission from this mythical BJJ blackbelt.

K-Sos +125 .5u

Dan Miller -200 1u: Chael Sonnen is coming into this fight on short notice, overweight and likely out of shape. He's got great wrestling but is coming from a camp that notoriously sucks at gameplanning around opposing fighters' strength. Miller's on a roll, and I think he subs Sonnen pretty easily here.

Also taking shots on a few parlays:

Sherk/Yoshida/Nover

Sherk/Barry/Miller/Prof. X

Sherk/Barry/Miller/Prof. X/Machida
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GL Sheer. i caved and put $35 on Rashad. Apparently Rashad also bet a lot of money on himself too (http://www.lvrj.com/sports/45910907.html) so you have to like that. i have both him and Machida in seperate parlays so I can make money in Rashad wins and cover my losses if Machida wins. The key for me tonight is Barry and Sherk, moreso Sherk since i have a lot of money on him indiv. for some dumb reason i put Barry in a lot of my parlays (about 5 total), and i really hope that doesn't burn me. Chump change on Serra and K-Sos compared to Sherk and that is close to it
 
Alright Sherk, we got the point that you want to show you are not only a wrestler. Not stop being an idiot and take Edgar down a few times and make sure you don't lose this fight!!! :hot:

 
So i look forward to hearing the opinions on the Hughes-Serra fight. I think a good example of what is wrong with the judging system. Don't want to say too much in case people didn't see, but worth a conversation

 
That Hughes-Serra fight was incredibly difficult to score IMO. Do you give Serra Rd1 because of an inadvertent headbutt? Hughes takes Rd 2 easily, and with the exception of the late action by Serra, Hughes takes Rd3 as well. It was extremely close, but i think they got it right

 
BuddyKnuckles said:
That Hughes-Serra fight was incredibly difficult to score IMO. Do you give Serra Rd1 because of an inadvertent headbutt? Hughes takes Rd 2 easily, and with the exception of the late action by Serra, Hughes takes Rd3 as well. It was extremely close, but i think they got it right
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In my opinion Serra wins rd. 1 10-9, and Hughes wins rd. 2 10-9. Not much to argue with that, yes Serra had an inadvertant headbutt in the first round, but i don't think Hughes did much to win the 1st to argue it. As for the 3rd, this is where my beef is. Hughes held position for a bit, but did absolutely nothing but lay and pray. He may have thrown 4 attempted strikes when he was on top, while Serra had at least 4 different submission attempts. Hughes did not attempt to engage on the feet, so the only reason Hughes wins that 3rd is because of 1 takedown and absolutely nothging else. Serra on the other hand was the aggressor on the feet, attempted multiple submission attempts on the ground, and ended the round on top in the 3rd. I may have to watch it again to make sure i got it right, and i am not saying the judges necessarily got it wrong, but if they didn't get it wrong then the judging system needs to be fixed or better defined a.s.a.p. it was a good fight though, but i would like to hear the judges opinions regarding why all 3 judged it 29-28.and congrats on the confidence in Machida some of you guys had. He looked real good. I would take Rashad or Machida over Rampage, and i hope Machida opens up as only a small favorite if Rampage is next. He didn't get too hurt tonight, so i could see an October or November defense. And man do I really hate Sherk now.
 
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modogg said:
BuddyKnuckles said:
That Hughes-Serra fight was incredibly difficult to score IMO. Do you give Serra Rd1 because of an inadvertent headbutt? Hughes takes Rd 2 easily, and with the exception of the late action by Serra, Hughes takes Rd3 as well. It was extremely close, but i think they got it right
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In my opinion Serra wins rd. 1 10-9, and Hughes wins rd. 2 10-9. Not much to argue with that, yes Serra had an inadvertant headbutt in the first round, but i don't think Hughes did much to win the 1st to argue it. As for the 3rd, this is where my beef is. Hughes held position for a bit, but did absolutely nothing but lay and pray. He may have thrown 4 attempted strikes when he was on top, while Serra had at least 4 different submission attempts. Hughes did not attempt to engage on the feet, so the only reason Hughes wins that 3rd is because of 1 takedown and absolutely nothging else. Serra on the other hand was the aggressor on the feet, attempted multiple submission attempts on the ground, and ended the round on top in the 3rd. I may have to watch it again to make sure i got it right, and i am not saying the judges necessarily got it wrong, but if they didn't get it wrong then the judging system needs to be fixed or better defined a.s.a.p. it was a good fight though, but i would like to hear the judges opinions regarding why all 3 judged it 29-28.and congrats on the confidence in Machida some of you guys had. He looked real good. I would take Rashad or Machida over Rampage, and i hope Machida opens up as only a small favorite if Rampage is next. He didn't get too hurt tonight, so i could see an October or November defense. And man do I really hate Sherk now.
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Agreed on Rd 1 and 2.As for 3, i can totally see that side of the scoring argument. IMO more fights are won from the top position than from in the guard. So, regardless of how many submission attempts are made by the guy in guard, being on top is a more dominant and controlling position. Hence, you get the points and the Rd.
 
BuddyKnuckles said:
That Hughes-Serra fight was incredibly difficult to score IMO. Do you give Serra Rd1 because of an inadvertent headbutt? Hughes takes Rd 2 easily, and with the exception of the late action by Serra, Hughes takes Rd3 as well. It was extremely close, but i think they got it right
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:thumbup:
 
BuddyKnuckles said:
modogg said:
BuddyKnuckles said:
That Hughes-Serra fight was incredibly difficult to score IMO. Do you give Serra Rd1 because of an inadvertent headbutt? Hughes takes Rd 2 easily, and with the exception of the late action by Serra, Hughes takes Rd3 as well. It was extremely close, but i think they got it right
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In my opinion Serra wins rd. 1 10-9, and Hughes wins rd. 2 10-9. Not much to argue with that, yes Serra had an inadvertant headbutt in the first round, but i don't think Hughes did much to win the 1st to argue it. As for the 3rd, this is where my beef is. Hughes held position for a bit, but did absolutely nothing but lay and pray. He may have thrown 4 attempted strikes when he was on top, while Serra had at least 4 different submission attempts. Hughes did not attempt to engage on the feet, so the only reason Hughes wins that 3rd is because of 1 takedown and absolutely nothging else. Serra on the other hand was the aggressor on the feet, attempted multiple submission attempts on the ground, and ended the round on top in the 3rd. I may have to watch it again to make sure i got it right, and i am not saying the judges necessarily got it wrong, but if they didn't get it wrong then the judging system needs to be fixed or better defined a.s.a.p. it was a good fight though, but i would like to hear the judges opinions regarding why all 3 judged it 29-28.and congrats on the confidence in Machida some of you guys had. He looked real good. I would take Rashad or Machida over Rampage, and i hope Machida opens up as only a small favorite if Rampage is next. He didn't get too hurt tonight, so i could see an October or November defense. And man do I really hate Sherk now.
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Agreed on Rd 1 and 2.As for 3, i can totally see that side of the scoring argument. IMO more fights are won from the top position than from in the guard. So, regardless of how many submission attempts are made by the guy in guard, being on top is a more dominant and controlling position. Hence, you get the points and the Rd.
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well with current judging standards i agree. But most BJJ guys would argue that being on top isn't necessarily the dominant or controlling position. Yes more fights are probably won from top position, but those guys need to be doing something, like traditional ground and pound, etc. But the argument here is a moot point until they further discuss how to judge the fightsAnd on another note, DREAM 9 is either tonight, or tomorrow (i know it plays on HDNET tomorrow at 5 a.m. EST). i think my card will play out as such, i took a huge lumping because Sherk and his corner are idiots, so all plays are half-units:Mousassi to win Super Hulk tournament +220 for .5 unitHunt to win Super Hulk tournament +300: 1/3 unitKid Yamamoto to win Featherweight GP: .5 unit at -130Minowa to beat Bob Sapp: .5 unit at +160So anybody have any thoughts? I do think either Hunt or Moussasi wins the Super Hulk tournament, not sure who else can. I also may put $20 on Warren at +400 to beat Kid Yamamoto. Kid should win the Featherweight, but he may have some ring rust, etc. not accounting for. i can't imagine Kid loses here, but if he does my bet for him in the tournament should be covered. Love to hear some thoughts on people more famaliar with these guys though.
 
sheerterror said:
Ended up making straight plays on Mousasi and Souza.
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i thought about Souza too, but I am out of money. I also know Miller can put up a good fight, but i really don't know how much work he has put into this one. I know amost everything i read today took Jacare so it definately seeems to be the right sidealright i just threw the last $100 i can spare in an account and made a $25 parlay bet: Sokoudju, Maeda and Souzza to win $44!!
 
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modogg said:
sheerterror said:
Ended up making straight plays on Mousasi and Souza.
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i thought about Souza too, but I am out of money. I also know Miller can put up a good fight, but i really don't know how much work he has put into this one. I know amost everything i read today took Jacare so it definately seeems to be the right sidealright i just threw the last $100 i can spare in an account and made a $25 parlay bet: Sokoudju, Maeda and Souzza to win $44!!
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GL buddy, don't know much about Maeda, but Souza and Sok were both in a parlay of mine.
 
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