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UFC wagering: breaking news - judging is so terrible it got me to return here to update this thread title (5 Viewers)

GL buddy, don't know much about Maeda, but Souza and Sok were both in a parlay of mine.
DON'T READ THIS UNLESS YOU DON'T MIND KNOWING RESULTS OF DREAM EVENT LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNINGWell, I didn't know a ton about Maeda and would have been smarter to stay away. I did pretty good though. The beaut I had was the .5 unit on Minowa, which i bumped to .75 unit and was thankful i did. Would have been a real good night if i went through with putting the $20 on Warren in case Kid had ring rust, and putting in one more parlay I liked: $10 on Souza, Mousasi, Warren and Minowa to probably win some good cash. This last parlay was a thought, but i did want to put $20 on Warren. Oh well, a positive night nonetheless.Another minor grumble I have is that I thought the Super-Hulk tourney was going to end in July, but it seems like it will continue in September. Mousasi takes on Vitor Belfort in August for Affliction, so he better not screw himself up for the tourney. i will be really, really bummed if this happens
 
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Ended up making straight plays on Mousasi and Souza.
i thought about Souza too, but I am out of money. I also know Miller can put up a good fight, but i really don't know how much work he has put into this one. I know amost everything i read today took Jacare so it definately seeems to be the right sidealright i just threw the last $100 i can spare in an account and made a $25 parlay bet: Sokoudju, Maeda and Souzza to win $44!!
GL buddy, don't know much about Maeda, but Souza and Sok were both in a parlay of mine.
Well, I didn't know a ton about Maeda and would have been smarter to stay away. I did pretty good though. The beaut I had was the .5 unit on Minowa, which i bumped to .75 unit and was thankful i did. Would have been a real good night if i went through with putting the $20 on Warren in case Kid had ring rust, and putting in one more parlay I liked: $10 on Souza, Mousasi, Warren and Minowa to probably win some good cash. This last parlay was a thought, but i did want to put $20 on Warren. Oh well, a positive night nonetheless.Another minor grumble I have is that I thought the Super-Hulk tourney was going to end in July, but it seems like it will continue in September. Mousasi takes on Vitor Belfort in August for Affliction, so he better not screw himself up for the tourney. i will be really, really bummed if this happens
Wow, didn't know Affliction signed him - should be a great fight. I think he'll be in the UFC before we know it, unless he decides he wants to compete purely in kickboxing which I think I read somewhere. Sucks having to have money tied up for that long though.
 
Ended up making straight plays on Mousasi and Souza.
i thought about Souza too, but I am out of money. I also know Miller can put up a good fight, but i really don't know how much work he has put into this one. I know amost everything i read today took Jacare so it definately seeems to be the right sidealright i just threw the last $100 i can spare in an account and made a $25 parlay bet: Sokoudju, Maeda and Souzza to win $44!!
GL buddy, don't know much about Maeda, but Souza and Sok were both in a parlay of mine.
Well, I didn't know a ton about Maeda and would have been smarter to stay away. I did pretty good though. The beaut I had was the .5 unit on Minowa, which i bumped to .75 unit and was thankful i did. Would have been a real good night if i went through with putting the $20 on Warren in case Kid had ring rust, and putting in one more parlay I liked: $10 on Souza, Mousasi, Warren and Minowa to probably win some good cash. This last parlay was a thought, but i did want to put $20 on Warren. Oh well, a positive night nonetheless.Another minor grumble I have is that I thought the Super-Hulk tourney was going to end in July, but it seems like it will continue in September. Mousasi takes on Vitor Belfort in August for Affliction, so he better not screw himself up for the tourney. i will be really, really bummed if this happens
Wow, didn't know Affliction signed him - should be a great fight. I think he'll be in the UFC before we know it, unless he decides he wants to compete purely in kickboxing which I think I read somewhere. Sucks having to have money tied up for that long though.
sucks a little but could be good too. I have taking a huge beating this month with the day-to-day betting and am going to need some money for the football season. could be a nice boost around that time in case the first week or 2 doesn't work out
 
so i read some interesting stuff today. It seems that Rampage is going to choose to fight Rashad over Machida, and that those 2 will do the next TUF (makes sense to me for Rampage, and will also help the show more than if it was different coaches. Forrest - Rampage seemed contrived at points, because i guess it was, but i could see Rampage getting upset about how Rashad called him out). And the other rumor is that Machida may be taking on Shogun next? So does Machida have a better chance against Shogun then he did against Rampage? i am not sure, but i don't think so. Of course i also thought Chuck would beat Shogun :loco:

 
Shogun has no business being in a title fight, but I guess the lack of available contenders bumped him up prematurely. He's going to get taken to school.

On another note, my local posted lines for every UFC 99 fight, which is strange since they are always the last of any book I use to post all the fights. Cain Velasquez opened up +140 against Cheick Kongo, which was a huge surprise to me. I don't know much about early line movement, but I don't expect the price to be this good come fight day. I hit Cain for 2u, which is a pretty sizable play for me with an underdog.

 
from an mmajunkie article...

UPDATE: According to Sergio Non of USA Today, Jackson and Evans will fight in the traditional season-ending coach-vs.-coach fight sometime in December. Although Jackson was promised the first shot at Lyoto Machida's belt, which he won from Evans this past weekend at UFC 98, Machida will make his first title defense against an opponent to be named shortly. According to White, Jackson said his desire to coach against Evans was stronger than his desire to fight immediately for the title.

 
sheerterror said:
Shogun has no business being in a title fight, but I guess the lack of available contenders bumped him up prematurely. He's going to get taken to school.

On another note, my local posted lines for every UFC 99 fight, which is strange since they are always the last of any book I use to post all the fights. Cain Velasquez opened up +140 against Cheick Kongo, which was a huge surprise to me. I don't know much about early line movement, but I don't expect the price to be this good come fight day. I hit Cain for 2u, which is a pretty sizable play for me with an underdog.
According to http://www.bestfightodds.com/ BetUS has Cain at +130, which to me seems very strange in that I expected Cain to be the favorite. I'd be surprised if Velasquez does not take Kongo down at will and GnP's a TKO or a decision.
 
sheerterror said:
Shogun has no business being in a title fight, but I guess the lack of available contenders bumped him up prematurely. He's going to get taken to school.

On another note, my local posted lines for every UFC 99 fight, which is strange since they are always the last of any book I use to post all the fights. Cain Velasquez opened up +140 against Cheick Kongo, which was a huge surprise to me. I don't know much about early line movement, but I don't expect the price to be this good come fight day. I hit Cain for 2u, which is a pretty sizable play for me with an underdog.
According to http://www.bestfightodds.com/ BetUS has Cain at +130, which to me seems very strange in that I expected Cain to be the favorite. I'd be surprised if Velasquez does not take Kongo down at will and GnP's a TKO or a decision.
I see every other fight line up at BetUs except this one...strange. My local still has +140 up there, so I hit it again...it's pretty apparent at this point that this is the best it will get, so I've got a bunch on it and may buy some back on Kongo at a better price if I feel overexposed on Cain closer to the fight. But ultimately, like you said, I think Velasquez's wrestling is way too strong for Kongo who is really nothing more than a striker. Cain, IMO, is being groomed as a future HW contender - guys like Herring and Kongo are exactly what he needs to jump to the next level - pretty good gatekeepers with name recognition.
 
Kimbo Slice on The Ultimate Fighter 10

http://mmajunkie.com/news/15060/kimbo-slic...ter-10-slot.mma

Not thrilled with this
You've got to tip your cap to Dana White on this one. Teaming up Kimbo with Rampage and Rashad for this season is going to draw rating never seen before for TUF. With how much White has ripped Kimbo, it's built up a little feud and some hype for this- it's going to generate a ridiculous amount of viewers. Best case scenario for UFC/Spike - Kimbo excels and ends up in the finals (as the article mentions) and draws excellent ratings for the finale; worse/most likely case - Kimbo fails miserably, White can say "told ya so" and he still got his ratings from people wanting to see what Kimbo could do against "real" fighters.
 
Shogun has no business being in a title fight, but I guess the lack of available contenders bumped him up prematurely. He's going to get taken to school.

On another note, my local posted lines for every UFC 99 fight, which is strange since they are always the last of any book I use to post all the fights. Cain Velasquez opened up +140 against Cheick Kongo, which was a huge surprise to me. I don't know much about early line movement, but I don't expect the price to be this good come fight day. I hit Cain for 2u, which is a pretty sizable play for me with an underdog.
According to http://www.bestfightodds.com/ BetUS has Cain at +130, which to me seems very strange in that I expected Cain to be the favorite. I'd be surprised if Velasquez does not take Kongo down at will and GnP's a TKO or a decision.
I see every other fight line up at BetUs except this one...strange. My local still has +140 up there, so I hit it again...it's pretty apparent at this point that this is the best it will get, so I've got a bunch on it and may buy some back on Kongo at a better price if I feel overexposed on Cain closer to the fight. But ultimately, like you said, I think Velasquez's wrestling is way too strong for Kongo who is really nothing more than a striker. Cain, IMO, is being groomed as a future HW contender - guys like Herring and Kongo are exactly what he needs to jump to the next level - pretty good gatekeepers with name recognition.
Not to toot my own horn, but SB opened at Velasquez -200. My local's line went from +140 to +125 to +100 to off the board. They must have finally realized they screwed up.
 
Shogun has no business being in a title fight, but I guess the lack of available contenders bumped him up prematurely. He's going to get taken to school.

On another note, my local posted lines for every UFC 99 fight, which is strange since they are always the last of any book I use to post all the fights. Cain Velasquez opened up +140 against Cheick Kongo, which was a huge surprise to me. I don't know much about early line movement, but I don't expect the price to be this good come fight day. I hit Cain for 2u, which is a pretty sizable play for me with an underdog.
According to http://www.bestfightodds.com/ BetUS has Cain at +130, which to me seems very strange in that I expected Cain to be the favorite. I'd be surprised if Velasquez does not take Kongo down at will and GnP's a TKO or a decision.
I see every other fight line up at BetUs except this one...strange. My local still has +140 up there, so I hit it again...it's pretty apparent at this point that this is the best it will get, so I've got a bunch on it and may buy some back on Kongo at a better price if I feel overexposed on Cain closer to the fight. But ultimately, like you said, I think Velasquez's wrestling is way too strong for Kongo who is really nothing more than a striker. Cain, IMO, is being groomed as a future HW contender - guys like Herring and Kongo are exactly what he needs to jump to the next level - pretty good gatekeepers with name recognition.
Not to toot my own horn, but SB opened at Velasquez -200. My local's line went from +140 to +125 to +100 to off the board. They must have finally realized they screwed up.
Definate good move. I myself am not positive who wins that fight, but it is nice getting in early on some lines. Of course it is better when they win ( :kicksrock: Sherk). And as for this weekend there is a lot of stuff to play. What i have so far:

Lawler: 1 unit

Shields: 1/3 unit

Grispi: 3/4 unit (screwed this up. I liked him yesterday after i read a bunch about him and saw some of his fights, but i didn't get to the line until now and it jumped to -165)

I probably will play some more, and some of these lines jumped way far. I think Aldo is a beast and was the best bet yesterday when i think he was around -250 or something. Well i don't have that kind of cash right now, but i just looked and he is -550 now. That is an insane movement there.

and some other lines moved. 3 guys at UFC 99 who were underdogs for the main card were +170 (Suanders, Uno, and Hardy), and now have mysteriously moved to +160 today. i was tempted to lay money on all 3 too, thinking all 3 have a chance, but more for action with the odds then that comfortable taking them

more to come. I know Bellator is tonight. I am a Reis fan (homer pick), but he still needs to grow his game. he is -500 right now, and the guy he is fighting is +300. His name is Roberto Vargas, and i don't know a ton about him, but that may be worth a shot. I also may think about Matt Horowich who is -105. I just don't know too much about his opponent Bryan Baker. Horowich is pretty easy to read though so if i can figure out what Baker brings this fight could be easy to pick

 
and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it

 
and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it
GL Mo. I ended up on:Arlovski -340Lawler +100Smith +260 and +300Whitehead -105Riggs +105I beat line movement on every fight. I don't expect to sweep 5-0, but I do like every side substantially. However, given that it's Strikeforce, my confidence is a bit lower than it would be with UFC where I'm more comfortable so no crazy big plays here. I never would have touched Arlovski at -500, but -340 was palatable for me. Rogers at +300 is a decent bet, but I think the step up in class will be too much for him here. He's best (only?) shot is to catch Arlovski with one of his power shots. Provided Arlovski fights smart and doesn't take inappropriate chances, I think he takes this one fairly easily.
 
and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it
GL Mo. I ended up on:Arlovski -340Lawler +100Smith +260 and +300Whitehead -105Riggs +105I beat line movement on every fight. I don't expect to sweep 5-0, but I do like every side substantially. However, given that it's Strikeforce, my confidence is a bit lower than it would be with UFC where I'm more comfortable so no crazy big plays here. I never would have touched Arlovski at -500, but -340 was palatable for me. Rogers at +300 is a decent bet, but I think the step up in class will be too much for him here. He's best (only?) shot is to catch Arlovski with one of his power shots. Provided Arlovski fights smart and doesn't take inappropriate chances, I think he takes this one fairly easily.
I hate not having SHO tonight!
 
and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it
GL Mo. I ended up on:Arlovski -340Lawler +100Smith +260 and +300Whitehead -105Riggs +105I beat line movement on every fight. I don't expect to sweep 5-0, but I do like every side substantially. However, given that it's Strikeforce, my confidence is a bit lower than it would be with UFC where I'm more comfortable so no crazy big plays here. I never would have touched Arlovski at -500, but -340 was palatable for me. Rogers at +300 is a decent bet, but I think the step up in class will be too much for him here. He's best (only?) shot is to catch Arlovski with one of his power shots. Provided Arlovski fights smart and doesn't take inappropriate chances, I think he takes this one fairly easily.
I hate not having SHO tonight!
I hear ya. I have it at my house, but I'm going to a Showtime-less buddies house for a party tonight. Trying to figure out a way to get it on there.
 
and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it
GL Mo. I ended up on:Arlovski -340Lawler +100Smith +260 and +300Whitehead -105Riggs +105I beat line movement on every fight. I don't expect to sweep 5-0, but I do like every side substantially. However, given that it's Strikeforce, my confidence is a bit lower than it would be with UFC where I'm more comfortable so no crazy big plays here. I never would have touched Arlovski at -500, but -340 was palatable for me. Rogers at +300 is a decent bet, but I think the step up in class will be too much for him here. He's best (only?) shot is to catch Arlovski with one of his power shots. Provided Arlovski fights smart and doesn't take inappropriate chances, I think he takes this one fairly easily.
I hate not having SHO tonight!
Any chance someone is going to be able to hook up an online link? I was pretty popular two weeks ago with that Sopcast link of the Evans/Machida fight.... :thumbup:
 
hmmm, i was reading a rumor yesterday that Diaz was ill, and just read that the Diaz-Smith fight was pulled from some books. I doubt Nick sits out because that is a payday for him, but if he is sick, it may be worth it. I know i played this game before with Karo vs. Kim and lost nicely, but it may be worth a little add

 
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and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it
GL Mo. I ended up on:Arlovski -340Lawler +100Smith +260 and +300Whitehead -105Riggs +105I beat line movement on every fight. I don't expect to sweep 5-0, but I do like every side substantially. However, given that it's Strikeforce, my confidence is a bit lower than it would be with UFC where I'm more comfortable so no crazy big plays here. I never would have touched Arlovski at -500, but -340 was palatable for me. Rogers at +300 is a decent bet, but I think the step up in class will be too much for him here. He's best (only?) shot is to catch Arlovski with one of his power shots. Provided Arlovski fights smart and doesn't take inappropriate chances, I think he takes this one fairly easily.
I hate not having SHO tonight!
Any chance someone is going to be able to hook up an online link? I was pretty popular two weeks ago with that Sopcast link of the Evans/Machida fight.... :P
Hopefully!! :thumbup:
 
hmmm, i was reading a rumor yesterday that Diaz was ill, and just read that the Diaz-Smith fight was pulled from some books. I doubt Nick sits out because that is a payday for him, but if he is sick, it may be worth it. I know i played this game before with Karo vs. Kim and lost nicely, but it may be worth a little add
Heard that too. With Smith's punching power, and Diaz's tendency to get hit as well as his willingness to stand and bang even though he's got a great ground game, I could see Smith putting him out tonight. Definitely great value at the price IMO.
 
Tacked on a little .25u parlay, 19:1:CavalcanteArlovskiRiggsWhiteheadJose AldoDonald CerroneNoah Thomas
Well that was over quick. What a POS Cavalcante is. Sounds like he was winning the 2nd round easily, caught what was described as an "ordinary" right hand on the button, and got finished with strikes. Glad I didn't bet this guy straight like I was heavily considering. Sorry Mo.
 
Tacked on a little .25u parlay, 19:1:CavalcanteArlovskiRiggsWhiteheadJose AldoDonald CerroneNoah Thomas
Well that was over quick. What a POS Cavalcante is. Sounds like he was winning the 2nd round easily, caught what was described as an "ordinary" right hand on the button, and got finished with strikes. Glad I didn't bet this guy straight like I was heavily considering. Sorry Mo.
ughhh, everything i was reading and checking out was saying "Feijao" was the absolute lock on this card. I put him inot 4 other parlays had. :lmao: But good call on Whitehead-Randleman. I am about 20 minutes behind watching this (just ended the second round), but Randleman looks horrendous. I didn't want to put any faith in Whitehead, but he should pull this out easily. Randleman just looks horrible
 
Tacked on a little .25u parlay, 19:1:CavalcanteArlovskiRiggsWhiteheadJose AldoDonald CerroneNoah Thomas
Well that was over quick. What a POS Cavalcante is. Sounds like he was winning the 2nd round easily, caught what was described as an "ordinary" right hand on the button, and got finished with strikes. Glad I didn't bet this guy straight like I was heavily considering. Sorry Mo.
ughhh, everything i was reading and checking out was saying "Feijao" was the absolute lock on this card. I put him inot 4 other parlays had. :thumbup: But good call on Whitehead-Randleman. I am about 20 minutes behind watching this (just ended the second round), but Randleman looks horrendous. I didn't want to put any faith in Whitehead, but he should pull this out easily. Randleman just looks horrible
Since you're on a delay, I'll save my detailed comments for later - but man, some total jokes so far, this really is a second-rate operation.
 
Tacked on a little .25u parlay, 19:1:CavalcanteArlovskiRiggsWhiteheadJose AldoDonald CerroneNoah Thomas
Well that was over quick. What a POS Cavalcante is. Sounds like he was winning the 2nd round easily, caught what was described as an "ordinary" right hand on the button, and got finished with strikes. Glad I didn't bet this guy straight like I was heavily considering. Sorry Mo.
ughhh, everything i was reading and checking out was saying "Feijao" was the absolute lock on this card. I put him inot 4 other parlays had. :wub: But good call on Whitehead-Randleman. I am about 20 minutes behind watching this (just ended the second round), but Randleman looks horrendous. I didn't want to put any faith in Whitehead, but he should pull this out easily. Randleman just looks horrible
Since you're on a delay, I'll save my detailed comments for later - but man, some total jokes so far, this really is a second-rate operation.
i just caught up. Yeah, there is a difference between UFC and everyone else. These things are good though, i actually start to appreciate Mike Goldberg more when i watch theseAnd friggin' Smith. He has done it before, but i could use it again. A nice 3rd round comeback.I've been a Diaz fan for awhile though, he is good.
 
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I will never, ever bet Scott Smith again. And it's not because he lost. It's because he's ####### clueless. The guy played speedbag to Diaz's slaps the entire fight. No attempt whatsoever to block or slip. And he counters with wild punches and kicks that I feel I could legitimately get out of the way of. The guy consistently has zero game plan, the only thing he tries to do is catch anybody he fights with a miracle KO shot. Just an absolutely ridiculous way to fight. I still feel this line was wayyyy too inflated. The bet was good, the fighter sucks.

 
Pathetic Arlovski. Pathetic. More pathetic is Jerkoff Announcer #2 having the balls to say Fedor and Barnett need to look out. Where do they find these guys?

 
Arlowski out in 20 seconds. Brett Rogers's got a house!!! I pity da fool!!
yeah, this combined with the camera angle makes this certainly a 2-bit production. Just wishing the little i added to some of my bets went a little more to Rogers than Smith
 
where does Arlovski go from here
Good question. I think Rogers was a little under-rated going into this. He was unproven, but i think Rogers is a legit heavyweight. I ws really impressed with his Muay Thai last fight. But as for Arlovski, maybe he joins Big Tim going to boxing. He'll have a spot on Affliction and Strikeforce shows because he puts a good show on, but that glass chin will always be a lingering issue
 
Nice play on Rogers guys. I'm happy beating the huge line movement with Arlovski, but I guess he really doesn't have "it" anymore. I'm still not sure what to think of Rogers.

 
Nice play on Rogers guys. I'm happy beating the huge line movement with Arlovski, but I guess he really doesn't have "it" anymore. I'm still not sure what to think of Rogers.
thanks. Tough break on the loss, but Robbie should help to cuchion it a bit. I am kicking myself a little for not putting a little more on Riggs earlier, i knew he would win that one. And i think Rogers is legit. He hasn't been tested yet, and i don't even know if he has been on the ground yet. I know he asked Lesnar if he could train with him, and Brock said no, but if he gets to a good camp and works that feature he should be alright. His Muay Thai looked pretty good last fight, and i haven't seen him rocked yet. not much you can take from this showing, so if he takes on Allistair next i am not sure what to think.
 
Wow - Jake Shields. I was actually excited for this fight because you had two legitimate "UFC caliber" fighters. Great sub skills by Shields. I think a move up to the big leagues is inevitable.

 

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