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UFC wagering: breaking news - judging is so terrible it got me to return here to update this thread title (8 Viewers)

sheerterror said:
Wow - Jake Shields. I was actually excited for this fight because you had two legitimate "UFC caliber" fighters. Great sub skills by Shields. I think a move up to the big leagues is inevitable.
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ughh, well there goes the Rogers winnings :popcorn: . Lawler was my big bet. And i don't know, i'll bet against Shields next fight if it is a reputable opponent. He caught Robbie nice, and very tight, but he looked very uncomfortable standing. Just really caught Robbie well, and Robbie put his head in there tight for some reason. Shame because it could have been a good fight
 
Bobcat10 said:
How did he suck Lawlor into that? Real bad mistake by Lawlor, no?
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yup. :popcorn: I may just be grumpy (2 of my parlays were Lawler - Rogers, and Smith-Riggs. If only i did Riggs-Rogers instead) but i thought Robbie really just was too comfortable with his head in there.
 
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sheerterror said:
modogg said:
and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it
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GL Mo. I ended up on:Arlovski -340Lawler +100Smith +260 and +300Whitehead -105Riggs +105I beat line movement on every fight. I don't expect to sweep 5-0, but I do like every side substantially. However, given that it's Strikeforce, my confidence is a bit lower than it would be with UFC where I'm more comfortable so no crazy big plays here. I never would have touched Arlovski at -500, but -340 was palatable for me. Rogers at +300 is a decent bet, but I think the step up in class will be too much for him here. He's best (only?) shot is to catch Arlovski with one of his power shots. Provided Arlovski fights smart and doesn't take inappropriate chances, I think he takes this one fairly easily.
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Ended up 2-3, took a bit of a loss though nothing crazy because these of what I said earlier. Arlovski obviously hurt because of the juice, Smith was a small play because he was such a big dog, Riggs and Whitehead were my highest confidence plays (played them both at my local for regular sized plays) but I again sit here wondering why I didn't hit the things I liked the most harder. Still have a parlay alive with Whitehead, Riggs, Aldo, Cerrone and Noah Thomas tomorrow. Going to have to try to figure out if there's value in letting it ride. I'm starting to get the itch to bet Mike Brown also - hopefully some of you guys have some thoughts on that one.
 
sheerterror said:
sheerterror said:
modogg said:
and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it
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GL Mo. I ended up on:Arlovski -340

Lawler +100

Smith +260 and +300

Whitehead -105

Riggs +105

I beat line movement on every fight. I don't expect to sweep 5-0, but I do like every side substantially. However, given that it's Strikeforce, my confidence is a bit lower than it would be with UFC where I'm more comfortable so no crazy big plays here. I never would have touched Arlovski at -500, but -340 was palatable for me. Rogers at +300 is a decent bet, but I think the step up in class will be too much for him here. He's best (only?) shot is to catch Arlovski with one of his power shots. Provided Arlovski fights smart and doesn't take inappropriate chances, I think he takes this one fairly easily.
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Ended up 2-3, took a bit of a loss though nothing crazy because these of what I said earlier. Arlovski obviously hurt because of the juice, Smith was a small play because he was such a big dog, Riggs and Whitehead were my highest confidence plays (played them both at my local for regular sized plays) but I again sit here wondering why I didn't hit the things I liked the most harder. Still have a parlay alive with Whitehead, Riggs, Aldo, Cerrone and Noah Thomas tomorrow. Going to have to try to figure out if there's value in letting it ride. I'm starting to get the itch to bet Mike Brown also - hopefully some of you guys have some thoughts on that one.
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Itch or gut?
 
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
Wow - Jake Shields. I was actually excited for this fight because you had two legitimate "UFC caliber" fighters. Great sub skills by Shields. I think a move up to the big leagues is inevitable.
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ughh, well there goes the Rogers winnings :popcorn: . Lawler was my big bet. And i don't know, i'll bet against Shields next fight if it is a reputable opponent. He caught Robbie nice, and very tight, but he looked very uncomfortable standing. Just really caught Robbie well, and Robbie put his head in there tight for some reason. Shame because it could have been a good fight
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Tough break Mo. Definitely had the pace and the talent levels to be a great fight - easily the best fight of the night on what turned out to be a very disappointing card. Robbie just got caught, plain and simple. If Shields was going to struggle to take him down all fight, it would have likely ended differently.
 
sheerterror said:
sheerterror said:
modogg said:
and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it
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GL Mo. I ended up on:Arlovski -340Lawler +100Smith +260 and +300Whitehead -105Riggs +105I beat line movement on every fight. I don't expect to sweep 5-0, but I do like every side substantially. However, given that it's Strikeforce, my confidence is a bit lower than it would be with UFC where I'm more comfortable so no crazy big plays here. I never would have touched Arlovski at -500, but -340 was palatable for me. Rogers at +300 is a decent bet, but I think the step up in class will be too much for him here. He's best (only?) shot is to catch Arlovski with one of his power shots. Provided Arlovski fights smart and doesn't take inappropriate chances, I think he takes this one fairly easily.
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Ended up 2-3, took a bit of a loss though nothing crazy because these of what I said earlier. Arlovski obviously hurt because of the juice, Smith was a small play because he was such a big dog, Riggs and Whitehead were my highest confidence plays (played them both at my local for regular sized plays) but I again sit here wondering why I didn't hit the things I liked the most harder. Still have a parlay alive with Whitehead, Riggs, Aldo, Cerrone and Noah Thomas tomorrow. Going to have to try to figure out if there's value in letting it ride. I'm starting to get the itch to bet Mike Brown also - hopefully some of you guys have some thoughts on that one.
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I was wondering why you liked Thomas earlier. The guy he is fighting is not too bad, but good luck with it. i don't know much about what he has been doing or his opponent. As for Brown, i think he wins. i'm not an expert on him or Urijah, but from what i know about Brown and his preparations for this fight, he really seems to be ready. I will probably play it light, and close to the fight. I assume money (if the public plays it at all, i don't even know) will come in on Urijah, helping the line a bit. the one i liked with it was Grispi over Pulver. My heart is for Pulver, but i really don't think he has a ton left. The stupid line has moved a lot toward Grispi (i got it late yesterday at -145, it now is -185 on sportsbook), and i do need to do a little more research on him, but i think Pulver is heading into the sunset. Hope he gets some deal at WEC for promotional stuff or something to keep a job, but he has looked pretty horrible his last couple of fights
 
zander_s said:
sheerterror said:
sheerterror said:
modogg said:
and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it
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GL Mo. I ended up on:Arlovski -340

Lawler +100

Smith +260 and +300

Whitehead -105

Riggs +105

I beat line movement on every fight. I don't expect to sweep 5-0, but I do like every side substantially. However, given that it's Strikeforce, my confidence is a bit lower than it would be with UFC where I'm more comfortable so no crazy big plays here. I never would have touched Arlovski at -500, but -340 was palatable for me. Rogers at +300 is a decent bet, but I think the step up in class will be too much for him here. He's best (only?) shot is to catch Arlovski with one of his power shots. Provided Arlovski fights smart and doesn't take inappropriate chances, I think he takes this one fairly easily.
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Ended up 2-3, took a bit of a loss though nothing crazy because these of what I said earlier. Arlovski obviously hurt because of the juice, Smith was a small play because he was such a big dog, Riggs and Whitehead were my highest confidence plays (played them both at my local for regular sized plays) but I again sit here wondering why I didn't hit the things I liked the most harder. Still have a parlay alive with Whitehead, Riggs, Aldo, Cerrone and Noah Thomas tomorrow. Going to have to try to figure out if there's value in letting it ride. I'm starting to get the itch to bet Mike Brown also - hopefully some of you guys have some thoughts on that one.
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Itch or gut?
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It's a little of both. Brown is, to me, underrated because Faber is the posterboy of the WEC, and everybody assumes the first win was a fluke. However, Brown is so damn powerful that he's going to be VERY hard for Faber to control with his wrestling. I just don't know how to truly interpret their first fight, because it ended due to Faber taking an unnecessary risk as he tends to do. I don't want to bet based on the assumption that he will make that same mistake again. However, as I said, Brown is so damn strong that I'm struggling to find a clear path of victory for Faber. I also don't think that just because Faber went and beat a broken down, washed up (sad to say) Jens Pulver, that he is "back." His last 2 victories have actually come against Jens. I'm not saying this to discredit Faber or his victories, but I think the general perception by everybody is to put Faber on some sort of WEC pedestal, blinding us of the reality that Brown may actually legitimately be the better fighter. Does that make sense? I'm tired and rambling. I'll try to watch some of their fights tomorrow and see if I can come up with a better analysis of this, but at this moment in time, I may be plunking down a half unit on the champ.
 
sheerterror said:
Tough break Mo. Definitely had the pace and the talent levels to be a great fight - easily the best fight of the night on what turned out to be a very disappointing card. Robbie just got caught, plain and simple. If Shields was going to struggle to take him down all fight, it would have likely ended differently.
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thanks, but no biggie. It was a unit bet, and overall i probably ended up maybe down $40 or $50. Compared to the screw-ups i had around page 4 or 5 of this thread, not a biggie at all. On to WEC tomorrow
 
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
sheerterror said:
modogg said:
and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it
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GL Mo. I ended up on:Arlovski -340

Lawler +100

Smith +260 and +300

Whitehead -105

Riggs +105

I beat line movement on every fight. I don't expect to sweep 5-0, but I do like every side substantially. However, given that it's Strikeforce, my confidence is a bit lower than it would be with UFC where I'm more comfortable so no crazy big plays here. I never would have touched Arlovski at -500, but -340 was palatable for me. Rogers at +300 is a decent bet, but I think the step up in class will be too much for him here. He's best (only?) shot is to catch Arlovski with one of his power shots. Provided Arlovski fights smart and doesn't take inappropriate chances, I think he takes this one fairly easily.
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Ended up 2-3, took a bit of a loss though nothing crazy because these of what I said earlier. Arlovski obviously hurt because of the juice, Smith was a small play because he was such a big dog, Riggs and Whitehead were my highest confidence plays (played them both at my local for regular sized plays) but I again sit here wondering why I didn't hit the things I liked the most harder. Still have a parlay alive with Whitehead, Riggs, Aldo, Cerrone and Noah Thomas tomorrow. Going to have to try to figure out if there's value in letting it ride. I'm starting to get the itch to bet Mike Brown also - hopefully some of you guys have some thoughts on that one.
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I was wondering why you liked Thomas earlier. The guy he is fighting is not too bad, but good luck with it. i don't know much about what he has been doing or his opponent. As for Brown, i think he wins. i'm not an expert on him or Urijah, but from what i know about Brown and his preparations for this fight, he really seems to be ready. I will probably play it light, and close to the fight. I assume money (if the public plays it at all, i don't even know) will come in on Urijah, helping the line a bit. the one i liked with it was Grispi over Pulver. My heart is for Pulver, but i really don't think he has a ton left. The stupid line has moved a lot toward Grispi (i got it late yesterday at -145, it now is -185 on sportsbook), and i do need to do a little more research on him, but i think Pulver is heading into the sunset. Hope he gets some deal at WEC for promotional stuff or something to keep a job, but he has looked pretty horrible his last couple of fights
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I've been leaning towards Grisipi lately as well. As I just said in my other post, Pulver is a shell of himself. Great all-time fighter, but he just doesn't have it anymore, and he's getting thrown to the wolves fight after fight after fight. As for Thomas, blind following of this guy whose writeups I read regularly - coincidentally, he's also on Mike Brown so that helped sway my opinion a bit. http://blog.mmaratings.net/2009/06/picks-a...-41-little.html
 
sheerterror said:
I've been leaning towards Grisipi lately as well. As I just said in my other post, Pulver is a shell of himself. Great all-time fighter, but he just doesn't have it anymore, and he's getting thrown to the wolves fight after fight after fight. As for Thomas, blind following of this guy whose writeups I read regularly - coincidentally, he's also on Mike Brown so that helped sway my opinion a bit. http://blog.mmaratings.net/2009/06/picks-a...-41-little.html
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I'll look more tomorrow, but i know that guy is pretty good, and a 2 unit bet on Thomas is some confidence. The guy he is fighting is a Greg Jackson guy, which always worries me a little, but i will put a little on Thomas and see how it goes. A Thomas, Grispi, Brown parlay may be a good thought as well
 
sheerterror said:
zander_s said:
sheerterror said:
sheerterror said:
modogg said:
and one to add, i'm going on a limb and taking Rogers tonight for $30. i can't remember seeing him hurt or stunned in any of his fights, and i'm not sure Arlovski has the wrestling to take Rogers down. i like Andre, as i type this this brings me back to the early mistakes i made betting MMA and taking these big dogs, but at $30 i can take it
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GL Mo. I ended up on:Arlovski -340

Lawler +100

Smith +260 and +300

Whitehead -105

Riggs +105

I beat line movement on every fight. I don't expect to sweep 5-0, but I do like every side substantially. However, given that it's Strikeforce, my confidence is a bit lower than it would be with UFC where I'm more comfortable so no crazy big plays here. I never would have touched Arlovski at -500, but -340 was palatable for me. Rogers at +300 is a decent bet, but I think the step up in class will be too much for him here. He's best (only?) shot is to catch Arlovski with one of his power shots. Provided Arlovski fights smart and doesn't take inappropriate chances, I think he takes this one fairly easily.
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Ended up 2-3, took a bit of a loss though nothing crazy because these of what I said earlier. Arlovski obviously hurt because of the juice, Smith was a small play because he was such a big dog, Riggs and Whitehead were my highest confidence plays (played them both at my local for regular sized plays) but I again sit here wondering why I didn't hit the things I liked the most harder. Still have a parlay alive with Whitehead, Riggs, Aldo, Cerrone and Noah Thomas tomorrow. Going to have to try to figure out if there's value in letting it ride. I'm starting to get the itch to bet Mike Brown also - hopefully some of you guys have some thoughts on that one.
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Itch or gut?
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It's a little of both. Brown is, to me, underrated because Faber is the posterboy of the WEC, and everybody assumes the first win was a fluke. However, Brown is so damn powerful that he's going to be VERY hard for Faber to control with his wrestling. I just don't know how to truly interpret their first fight, because it ended due to Faber taking an unnecessary risk as he tends to do. I don't want to bet based on the assumption that he will make that same mistake again. However, as I said, Brown is so damn strong that I'm struggling to find a clear path of victory for Faber. I also don't think that just because Faber went and beat a broken down, washed up (sad to say) Jens Pulver, that he is "back." His last 2 victories have actually come against Jens. I'm not saying this to discredit Faber or his victories, but I think the general perception by everybody is to put Faber on some sort of WEC pedestal, blinding us of the reality that Brown may actually legitimately be the better fighter. Does that make sense? I'm tired and rambling. I'll try to watch some of their fights tomorrow and see if I can come up with a better analysis of this, but at this moment in time, I may be plunking down a half unit on the champ.
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I understand this completely. I like both these guys though. I truly believe the posterboy thinking but i REALLY need to investigate this one.Wife is working tomorrow, i'll be doing some due diligence.

I really was going to stay far away from this one but i have that gut/itch as well.

We'll talk tomorrow!

 
sheerterror said:
I will never, ever bet Scott Smith again. And it's not because he lost. It's because he's ####### clueless. The guy played speedbag to Diaz's slaps the entire fight. No attempt whatsoever to block or slip. And he counters with wild punches and kicks that I feel I could legitimately get out of the way of. The guy consistently has zero game plan, the only thing he tries to do is catch anybody he fights with a miracle KO shot. Just an absolutely ridiculous way to fight. I still feel this line was wayyyy too inflated. The bet was good, the fighter sucks.
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your probably right here Sheer. Smith is tempting becayuse he puts on some good fights, but a lot are fights he is losing and he gets a lucky swing. Great to watch, but betting with him is not a good call. We should make a list. 1. Guys to automatically bet on: Anderson Silva, GSP.....2. Guys to bet against: Randleman, Baroni, maybe Pulver...the list looks retareded probabyl because i am falling asleep here, but we could organize this to maybe get some good calls on guys to bet with and against. i'm just rambling now, sorry. i would like to bet more MMA then baseball tomorrow, i think we have a better chance
 
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
I will never, ever bet Scott Smith again. And it's not because he lost. It's because he's ####### clueless. The guy played speedbag to Diaz's slaps the entire fight. No attempt whatsoever to block or slip. And he counters with wild punches and kicks that I feel I could legitimately get out of the way of. The guy consistently has zero game plan, the only thing he tries to do is catch anybody he fights with a miracle KO shot. Just an absolutely ridiculous way to fight. I still feel this line was wayyyy too inflated. The bet was good, the fighter sucks.
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your probably right here Sheer. Smith is tempting becayuse he puts on some good fights, but a lot are fights he is losing and he gets a lucky swing. Great to watch, but betting with him is not a good call. We should make a list. 1. Guys to automatically bet on: Anderson Silva, GSP.....2. Guys to bet against: Randleman, Baroni, maybe Pulver...the list looks retareded probabyl because i am falling asleep here, but we could organize this to maybe get some good calls on guys to bet with and against. i'm just rambling now, sorry. i would like to bet more MMA then baseball tomorrow, i think we have a better chance
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I definitely agree. Add Machida to the list of auto bets. Until someone proves they can hit him, let alone defeat him, there's no reason not to continue milking that cash cow. Unfortunately, the lines will sour from here. I'm guessing he's -300 against Shogun. I believe you said it a few days back though, only risk that juice on the elite fighters - the guys you know you can trust. To me, there's no one more trustworthy than him. Great bet against list as well. I said I liked Whitehead a while back when this fight was announced. It was a combination of Whitehead's underrated resume with the fact that Randleman is dogpiss awful. He's not who he used to be, and while he's still a physical specimen, that guy just doesn't have the explosion anymore. He was out of the game so long it really was set up to be an easy bet on Whitehead. Whitehead actually looked pretty bad in this fight, but got away with it because the Monster looked worse. Both fighters were so pathetically gassed about a minute into the 2nd round that you sort of felt sorry for them. I knew Whitehead had the fight won, I was just praying Randleman didn't land that Scott Smith-style shot to put him to bed. Baroni is a tool. He's from about 10 minutes away from me, so for a while I tried to cheer for him. But when he comes out dressed like a ######## with those cokehead sunglasses on, it's hard to cheer for someone that gives your hometown region a bad name. As jacked as that guy is, he's incredibly out of shape. That 3rd round was laughable. Riggs is no top tier fighter IMO, but I truly believe he was intentionally not going for the kill against Baroni in that 3rd round because he wanted to keep doling out the punishment. Baroni was literally wondering around the care with his hands down, just walking away from Riggs - it was flat out sad. I don't know if Phil's going to be getting another fight any time soon - and certainly doubtful it's against top tier competition. Same with Randleman. Now I'm rambling...damn. I'll talk to you guys tomorrow, let's make some money with the WEC.
 
i'm on Grispi and Brown as my go to guys tonight. and even though i am quite the Jose Aldo fan, i'm putting $20 on Cub Swanson at +400. that line got ridiculous. Jose should knock Cub into next week, but Cub isn't as much of a tomato can as +400 would lead you to believe

 
modogg said:
i'm on Grispi and Brown as my go to guys tonight. and even though i am quite the Jose Aldo fan, i'm putting $20 on Cub Swanson at +400. that line got ridiculous. Jose should knock Cub into next week, but Cub isn't as much of a tomato can as +400 would lead you to believe
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Excellent point! I'll throw a few $ at it!I've changed over to Grispi as well. I was high on Pulver last week but not feeling it now.

 
I'm thinking Faber ends the nice little run Brown has been on. Don't think we'll see Faber as reckless as he was the 1st go around

 
HellToupee said:
I'm thinking Faber ends the nice little run Brown has been on. Don't think we'll see Faber as reckless as he was the 1st go around
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that's the best thing about this stuff, we'll find out soon enough. i think Brown is bigger and stronger, and i think he can outwrestle him if need be. My guess is Urijah can drop down and they can set up Urijah vs. Torres. Also hopefuly sign Kid Yamamoto by then, then they can host a PPV
 
HellToupee said:
I'm thinking Faber ends the nice little run Brown has been on. Don't think we'll see Faber as reckless as he was the 1st go around
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He's kinda' got the crazy in him, which is what makes him so much fun to watch. But, I think he plays this more disciplined tonight. Should be a great fight, either way.
 
HellToupee said:
Pulver can call Arlovski and commiserate about fast exits
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i hope he comes back again. i think it is more along the lines of Lawler, just stuck his head in there. Like Lawler last night, you could see it (from the camera angle, not Jen's perspective) coming a mile away. i hope he comes back for another fight, i think he will
 
zander_s said:
sheerterror said:
I'm with ya on Grispi and Brown Mo - let's cash em.
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I'm in on Brown as well. Much as i like them both!GL fellas!
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nice. Shame Kobe Bryant had to throw some of us under the bus tonight again with his FT's, but Brown and Grispi did what they were supposed to. Not positive how the Faber-Brown fight would have went if Faber didn't mess his hand up, but I'll take what i can get
 
modogg said:
zander_s said:
sheerterror said:
I'm with ya on Grispi and Brown Mo - let's cash em.
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I'm in on Brown as well. Much as i like them both!GL fellas!
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nice. Shame Kobe Bryant had to throw some of us under the bus tonight again with his FT's, but Brown and Grispi did what they were supposed to. Not positive how the Faber-Brown fight would have went if Faber didn't mess his hand up, but I'll take what i can get
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2-1 works for me!I was on the 7.5 side with Kobe so the night is ok.
 
so i guess we can start talking UFC 99 soon. One that sticks out to me is Ben Saunders +160. I am not overly impressed with Mike Swick at welterweight. I read an article the other week about cutting weight, and how it works for some guys and doesn't work for others. I like Saunders style and think he has a legit shot to win.

I also put some cash on Wandy awhile back, which i am not overly confident on, but not enough to hedge it. I also think i put a little on Hardy at +170 over Marcus Davis. there is a lot of heat between these 2, and it should be a good fight, but Hardy has fought guys on par with Davis and won, he can do it again. and i have to side with Hardy through their arguments too.

 
and wow, next season of TUF will be pretty sweet. We have at least 4 former NFL players, Kimbo Slice, and now they are saying Roy Nelson and Wes Sims will be in too. That is a pretty good lienup. That $25 bet on Kimbo not making the finals seems like a lock with those 2 in the house, got quite a bit of experience coming in

http://www.cagepotato.com/more-tuf-10-news...weight-funhouse

 
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I really want Wandy to win, but I think the smart money is on Rich at about 130. I agree with you about Dan Hardy vs Davis. Hardy's striking looked very improved at UFC 95 and if he can avoid a big shot, I think +170 is too good of a price. The same goes for Caol Uno at about +165 vs Spencer Fisher, unless Fisher lands a big shot, I don't see him beating Uno, except that I've been burnt times before betting on someone's UFC debut, or effective debut after such a long layoff that Uno has had.

 
My bets for UFC 99:

Velasquez +140: 2.5u to win 3.5u

Struve -150: 3u to win 2u

Swick -200: 2u to win 1u

Uno +160: .5u to win .8u

Sobotta +250: .25 to win .6u

I might be a little heavier on Velsquez than I should be, but I took advantage of the early line error my book hung up as he's around -180 or -200 just about everywhere now. Kongo poses a tough task for Velasquez, no doubt - but he will just be a bump in the road IMO on Velasquez's way to the top tier of the HW division. I think this is the fight where Cain "proves" himself, people truly realize how legitimate he is, and he starts getting talked about in the title picture. Velasquez's biggest strength is Kongo's biggest weakness - wrestling. Cain was an All American at ASU, and his wrestling skills are right up there with Lesnar and Carwin for best in the division. Cain is in trouble if he decides to stand and bang with Cheick, but I have no reason to believe that Velasquez, an apparently extremely intelligible fighter, would try to do that (I'm looking at YOU Sean Sherk). He's also got superior stamina to Kongo, and among the best athleticism and quickness in the HW division. Velasquez should have no probablem taking Kongo down, laying on top to tire him out and then finishing with a ground n' pound TKO, or riding out a decision.

I liked Struve for a while when I saw these lines, and jumped on him pretty big when I saw Performify on him. Aside from his embarrassing performance against Junior Dos Santos, a great up and coming heavyweight in his own right, Struve has a pretty decent resume. He's about a foot taller than Stojnic and should use that tremendous reach to tag Stojnic with kicks and punches for however long he pleases before moving in for the kill. Struve also has a great set of submission skills, having ended 12 of his 16 victories with a sub. Stojnic is a pedestrian 5-2 in his professional MMA career, with his most recent loss coming via 2nd round TKO to Cain Velasquez. To his credit, Stojnic was the first fighter to successfully take Velasquez into the 2nd round, but he was getting tattooed the entire time before finally succumbing. He's certainly a tough guy, but I believe he's overmatched here. He won't be able to get in close enough to use his striking effectively, and even then, he hasn't demonstrated much knockout power in his career, with 3 of his 5 career victories coming via decision. Logic would have you believe there's a VERY clear path to victory here for Struve - use the reach to beat up and tire out the pudgy Stojnic for a few minutes, drag him to the ground, and tap him out.

As for the other fights, I'm tailing a few guys that seem to have consensus opinions on Uno and Sobotta, so those are relatively small plays. I think Swick is being underrated here. I never thought too much of him earlier in his career, but looking back at it now, the guy's got a pretty damn impressive resume with only 2 career losses, 1 to Chris Leben 5 years ago, and the other a decision loss to Yushin Okami, a middleweight title contender. Saunders hasn't fought anybody REMOTELY close to as skilled as Swick and this step up in class is going to pose a very difficult task for him.

And for the "Does anyone really give a ####?" Main Event on the card, I tend to lean towards Rich Franklin. Wanderlei, much like Chuck Liddell has likely eaten a few too many punches in his career to be able to work through any significant punishment. I love that Franklin trained with Anderson Silva for a few days leading up to this fight - that should only help the cause. I won't be betting this one straight (have Franklin in a parlay) because with Wanderlei, you're always that one quick homerun shot away from losing your money. Instead, I'll just watch this one and enjoy two former champs try to battle their way back into significance in their respective weight classes.

 
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Just a reminder to get your bets in on time - this event is in Germany and starts at 3:00 PM Eastern.

 
Agree with Sheerterror's bets, apart from Sobotta. Paul Taylor doesn't have great takedown defense, but he's slippery enough to get back to the standup and win the fight there. Sure, Sobotta's a good bet at +250, but I still don't see it.

Should be a really fun event, if nothing else. Looking forward to Hardy/Davis.

 
Guys, I guarantee that Sopcast will work for the whole fight. Download it once, and you don't have to worry about finding a link for another UFC.

 
Not sure how that was a unanimous decision for Franklin, but ok...

Sad to see my all-time favorite athletes, of any sport, on the downside of his career. He didn't look good again this fight and seems pretty much finished. :tfp: It's been fun watching him fight for all these years. :tfp:

 
btw, every fight is on sopcast and any other sporting event, for that matter. It's free. All you have to do is download it. I've said it in every UFC thread.

Strange that there wasn't a UFC fight thread tonight. :tfp:

 
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