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UFC wagering: breaking news - judging is so terrible it got me to return here to update this thread title (9 Viewers)

Killed this card. Went 3-2 +5.75u, plus hit a parlay that paid another 1.5u. Made back all the money I lost on the Wings on Friday.

Didn't see the Sobotta fight, but for a +250 dog to make it to a decision, I wasn't too upset. I watched most of this card online live yesterday afternoon, and I caught a little more than half of the Uno-Fisher fight. I thought Uno got shafted on that decision. He was able to take Fisher down pretty effectively for much of what I saw of the fight, and although he couldn't hold him down, he was scoring points. In the 3rd, he dominated and got mount, yet Fisher still got the UD, so that was a little frustrating, but all in all a very, very profitable card for me. Hope everyone else did well.

 
sheerterror said:
I thought Uno got shafted on that decision. He was able to take Fisher down pretty effectively for much of what I saw of the fight, and although he couldn't hold him down, he was scoring points. In the 3rd, he dominated and got mount, yet Fisher still got the UD
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Through the first 14:30 of the fight, Fisher was never in any trouble at all. Uno leaned on him for the whole fight and took him down and couldn't do anything with it. Fisher was actively working knees, and when Uno wasn't glued to him, had some nice hands. I hate to call Uno's work 'lay and pray', because there's certainly people who do it a lot worse...but it's kind of like Clay Guida fights. Dude puts himself in a position where he can't be hurt and just tries for tight grappling all the time. It's effective, but very boring.
 
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AhrnCityPahnder said:
sheerterror said:
I thought Uno got shafted on that decision. He was able to take Fisher down pretty effectively for much of what I saw of the fight, and although he couldn't hold him down, he was scoring points. In the 3rd, he dominated and got mount, yet Fisher still got the UD
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Through the first 14:30 of the fight, Fisher was never in any trouble at all. Uno leaned on him for the whole fight and took him down and couldn't do anything with it. Fisher was actively working knees, and when Uno wasn't glued to him, had some nice hands. I hate to call Uno's work 'lay and pray', because there's certainly people who do it a lot worse...but it's kind of like Clay Guida fights. Dude puts himself in a position where he can't be hurt and just tries for tight grappling all the time. It's effective, but very boring.
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Speaking of Clay Guida....what do you think of his fight with Sanchez? The line sucks, but I'm very tempted to play Diego anyway. Guida didn't impress me at all in his fight against Nate Diaz, and I think Sanchez's striking and power will be substantially better than Nate's, I just don't know how his wrestling will stack up to Clay's and if he will be able to prevent Guida from doing the same thing he did against Diaz.
 
sheerterror said:
AhrnCityPahnder said:
sheerterror said:
I thought Uno got shafted on that decision. He was able to take Fisher down pretty effectively for much of what I saw of the fight, and although he couldn't hold him down, he was scoring points. In the 3rd, he dominated and got mount, yet Fisher still got the UD
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Through the first 14:30 of the fight, Fisher was never in any trouble at all. Uno leaned on him for the whole fight and took him down and couldn't do anything with it. Fisher was actively working knees, and when Uno wasn't glued to him, had some nice hands. I hate to call Uno's work 'lay and pray', because there's certainly people who do it a lot worse...but it's kind of like Clay Guida fights. Dude puts himself in a position where he can't be hurt and just tries for tight grappling all the time. It's effective, but very boring.
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Speaking of Clay Guida....what do you think of his fight with Sanchez? The line sucks, but I'm very tempted to play Diego anyway. Guida didn't impress me at all in his fight against Nate Diaz, and I think Sanchez's striking and power will be substantially better than Nate's, I just don't know how his wrestling will stack up to Clay's and if he will be able to prevent Guida from doing the same thing he did against Diaz.
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You can point to the Diego / Koscheck and the Diego / Fitch fight if you want to say Diego is overmatched by good by good pure wrestlers -- but many people say Sanchez was not 100% for Koscheck and I don't think Guida has the same skills as Fitch. Sanchez has faced better people than Guida, this will easily be Guida's toughest fight. I expect Sanchez to win a decision.
 
AhrnCityPahnder said:
sheerterror said:
I thought Uno got shafted on that decision. He was able to take Fisher down pretty effectively for much of what I saw of the fight, and although he couldn't hold him down, he was scoring points. In the 3rd, he dominated and got mount, yet Fisher still got the UD
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Through the first 14:30 of the fight, Fisher was never in any trouble at all. Uno leaned on him for the whole fight and took him down and couldn't do anything with it. Fisher was actively working knees, and when Uno wasn't glued to him, had some nice hands. I hate to call Uno's work 'lay and pray', because there's certainly people who do it a lot worse...but it's kind of like Clay Guida fights. Dude puts himself in a position where he can't be hurt and just tries for tight grappling all the time. It's effective, but very boring.
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Uno was robbed as this was the classic case of bad judging. The first 2 rounds should have been 10-10 as neither fighter was able to effectively grapple or strike. And, even if both rounds were scored 10-9 for Fisher, round 3 should have been 10-8 Uno as the margin for winning round 3 was so much greater than Fisher's for winning 1 and 2. Also, I hate that you're right with your point sheerterror that Uno was scoring points by getting meaningless takedowns. He SHOULDN'T be closer to winning the round with those, but with the way MMA is scored in the US, getting a takedown and doing nothing with it for some reason means something.
 
Voice Of Reason said:
Uno was robbed as this was the classic case of bad judging. The first 2 rounds should have been 10-10 as neither fighter was able to effectively grapple or strike. And, even if both rounds were scored 10-9 for Fisher, round 3 should have been 10-8 Uno as the margin for winning round 3 was so much greater than Fisher's for winning 1 and 2.
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10-8 rounds are rare and very tough to come by. Using the other 12-15 times that I've seen 10-8 rounds awarded as a barometer, Uno was nowhere near having 10-8 domination in that round. I see the point you're going for, that Uno's last 30 seconds of domination was more definitive than anything else Fisher did, but as long as the MMA sticks with 10 point must system, things like this are always going to be an issue. I had it 10-9 SF, 10-9 SF, and 10-9 CU. decision seemed right to me. :thumbup:
 
My point is that the judges don't know how to use the 10 pt must system. 10-8 and 10-10 rounds are rare because poor judging.

Either the fight was 10-10, 10-10, 10-9U or it was 10-9F, 10-9F, 10-8U with round 2 possibly being 10-9U.

 
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sheerterror said:
Killed this card. Went 3-2 +5.75u, plus hit a parlay that paid another 1.5u. Made back all the money I lost on the Wings on Friday. Didn't see the Sobotta fight, but for a +250 dog to make it to a decision, I wasn't too upset. I watched most of this card online live yesterday afternoon, and I caught a little more than half of the Uno-Fisher fight. I thought Uno got shafted on that decision. He was able to take Fisher down pretty effectively for much of what I saw of the fight, and although he couldn't hold him down, he was scoring points. In the 3rd, he dominated and got mount, yet Fisher still got the UD, so that was a little frustrating, but all in all a very, very profitable card for me. Hope everyone else did well.
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Nice job Sheer. I missed on most of the picks because i was out all weekend, but i won Hardy, and lost Wandy. I just couldn't find an angle for the fights, and i put all my money went to the Wings on Friday before i left :hifive: . But nice job, and i hope it continues for the upcoming fights. I was hoping to get some action on the Sylvia-Mercer fight, but didn't see it listed anywhere. I'm not a big Ray Mercer fan or anything, but i was very confident he would beat Sylvia. i'm not sure where the line would have been, but it is a shame to miss out with that oneI saw you posted about Diego-Guida too. I wanted to go heavy on Diego, but the line is a little too heavy for me right now. Guida's last fight was impressive (i think it was against Danzig, if not it was Nate Diaz), and he is always game for a fight. I still think Diego should win this soundly, but at -270 and -300 i am not sure it is a good risk. i will wait for some other lines to come out. A fight on the card i was looking to that got pulled was Anthony Johnson-Matt Brown. I would have went heavy on Johnson i think. the only other line up is Diaz-Stevenson where the money has been coming in on Diaz. I guess that makes sense to me, and i like Diaz in that fight too. i'm not sure how much i like him, but Stevenson has never been overly impressive. He has a sick guillotine that you would think he could beat anybody with, but i think Diaz will beat him in the stand-up, and hopefuly Stevenson does not have a big strength advantage
 
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here is an intreresting article on what the future of Chuck Lidell could be. I don't know if i agree with the idea, but the thought is one last fight for Chuck, Chuck vs. Kimbo Slice. I can't think anyone would suggest this would be good for the sport overall, but I would think Chuck would want to go out on top, and i have to think this fight would sell some tickets.

http://fiveouncesofpain.com/2009/06/15/kim...st-makes-sense/

 
modogg said:
here is an intreresting article on what the future of Chuck Lidell could be. I don't know if i agree with the idea, but the thought is one last fight for Chuck, Chuck vs. Kimbo Slice. I can't think anyone would suggest this would be good for the sport overall, but I would think Chuck would want to go out on top, and i have to think this fight would sell some tickets.

http://fiveouncesofpain.com/2009/06/15/kim...st-makes-sense/
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:thumbdown: Kimbo has enough power to KO Liddell. I don't want to see that as Liddell's last fight.

 
Clayton Gray said:
modogg said:
here is an intreresting article on what the future of Chuck Lidell could be. I don't know if i agree with the idea, but the thought is one last fight for Chuck, Chuck vs. Kimbo Slice. I can't think anyone would suggest this would be good for the sport overall, but I would think Chuck would want to go out on top, and i have to think this fight would sell some tickets.

http://fiveouncesofpain.com/2009/06/15/kim...st-makes-sense/
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:thumbup: Kimbo has enough power to KO Liddell. I don't want to see that as Liddell's last fight.
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i have to think that would be a nightmare for a lot of folks if Chuck got KO'd by Kimbo. man that would really screw things up.and there are a few cards this weekend. The Ultimate Fighter finale will be good. I have Diaz so far, and i think i may take Andre against Ross if the line is reasonable. Also have an alright Strikeforce card on Friday night. My plan is to hit a few here and hopefuly have some money to play on Saturday:

Villasenor -185

Santos +155

Tim Kennedy -130

Nick Thompson ev

Devela -115

Rockhold -115

Kaufman -200

Bayszler +160

Gurgel -115

Huen -115

Beerbohm -150

Ludwig +120

i think there is some value on here, but would love to hear other's opinions. I put .5 unit on Villesenor and Gurgel for now, and also looking at Ludwig and Shayna Bayszler.

 
so i went 3-0 yesterday (Villesanor, Gurgel, and Rockhold), so i have a little to play tonight. Anybody have any thoughts?

I have Winner, Diaz and Blackburn right now, here is the card and lines. weigh-in results are in parentheses because i was too lazy to find the lines somewhere else:

Diego Sanchez -320 (156) vs. Clay Guida +260 (155)

Damarques Johnson -370 (170) vs. James Wilks +280 (171)

Chris Lytle -260 (170) vs. Kevin Burns +200 (171)

Andre Winner -205 (155) vs. Ross Pearson +165 (156)

Nate Diaz -155 (156) vs. Joe Stevenson +135 (155)

Gleison Tibau -260 (155) vs. Melvin Guillard +200 (155)

Brad Blackburn -135 (170) vs. Edgar Garcia +105 (171)

Mike Ciesnolevicz -125 (208) vs. Tomasz Drwal -105 (205)

Nicholas Osipczak -240 (170) vs. Frank Lester +180 (170)

Jason Dent -275 (155) vs. Cameron Dollar +215 (154)

 
Leans on Lytle, Sanchez and Tibau, but I think all are too juicy to make straight plays on. I'll likely just put in a parlay of all 3 and leave it at that. Maybe a half unit on Diaz straight.

 
zander_s said:
sheerterror said:
Leans on Lytle, Sanchez and Tibau, but I think all are too juicy to make straight plays on. I'll likely just put in a parlay of all 3 and leave it at that. Maybe a half unit on Diaz straight.
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:lmao: I'm going strictly spectator tonight!
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well there may be some value in some of the underdogs. i played some of GR's baseball plays today (i'm doing my best to stay away from baseball, my accounts aren't up to it), and if they do well i think i may try a little on Dollar and Wilks
 
zander_s said:
sheerterror said:
Leans on Lytle, Sanchez and Tibau, but I think all are too juicy to make straight plays on. I'll likely just put in a parlay of all 3 and leave it at that. Maybe a half unit on Diaz straight.
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:goodposting: I'm going strictly spectator tonight!
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Wow, somebody really hit the lines. I'm adding 2 more, for $20 each because i think you just have to:Wilks +300 for $20

Guida +300 for $20

Diego is good, but i have no idea how the line on him got driven up to -500. that's just silly, same with Demarcus being -500.

 
millertyme1 said:
Totally forgot about TUF finale tonight. I got to say this season was bloody boring. Wasn't really into it much myself mate. Where's that ##### Pierce @?However, I'm really looking forward to Guida & Diaz bouts.
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i think wilkes v Demarques will be a good one, but yeah the season was pretty lame. I did learn that Bisping is about as mature as my 5 yr old nephewAlso think the dollar v dent fight will be interesting. maybe not from a technical fight perspective but from the fact that they truly hate each other.
 
BuddyKnuckles said:
millertyme1 said:
Totally forgot about TUF finale tonight. I got to say this season was bloody boring. Wasn't really into it much myself mate. Where's that ##### Pierce @?However, I'm really looking forward to Guida & Diaz bouts.
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i think wilkes v Demarques will be a good one, but yeah the season was pretty lame. I did learn that Bisping is about as mature as my 5 yr old nephewAlso think the dollar v dent fight will be interesting. maybe not from a technical fight perspective but from the fact that they truly hate each other.
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I became more of a Bisping fan myself through the season. His antics cracked me up, I think he did it all for show and to make things interesting. he knows how to make things interesting, and I thinkhe plays it up.
 
so there were/are some pretty good fights on the TUF finale. I wish i would have bet a little smarter (i liked one guy who was a big underdog, only bet $20 on him and he would have paid out very well if i didn't allow myself to be influenced by the heavy line against him). Should end up for the night with the card which is nice, and i hope other people did too.

the guy i liked here was (it has been so long i almost forgot his name) Wilkes. Wasn't really that impressed with Demarques, and i think taking underdogs on those TUF finales could be real good money makers if they set those lines like the did for Wilkes and Ross

 
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So i figured this thread could use a boost. UFC 100 still looks pretty awesome, and i am real glad the injury bug that has hit some other shows hasn't hit this one (really hope that just didn't jinx anyone). So i am on GSP and Brock pretty good coming up, and i got in on Fitch when he was -250 as well. I also put a little more than usual on Bisping, which isn't a safe bet, but it was back when he was +300 mostly.

so anybody have any thoughts on any of the other fights on the card? Or any thoughts on potential line movements with the public likely betting heavy on this card? I got a little hosed on Lesnar, i thought he was going to keep going up and i took him over a month ago at -265. He is now -215, and i may put a little more on him because i think there is good value with him there. i really don't think Mir has improved that significantly from their last fight, as opposed to Brock who has improved quite a bit. Considering Brock was winning that last fight 99% of the time, i think unless he gets caught with something (which i imagine they have practiced over and over against) he should be pretty safe to win. motivation shouldn't be an issue (could be down the road). i included the current numbers below, but i also grabbed Belcher the other day at +260. I am not too familiar with Akiyama, but i know Belcher's Muay Thai has really reached a high level. Jake O'Brien is a possible bet at +300 closer to the event, and if Bonner goes down i like him over Coleman. if i am betting something around -300, it will be more on GSP. i like the Alves hype, but GSP is really on another level.

Also, wondering if anybody has any thoughts on any future cards. getting in on lines early can be a big benefit, but i am not sure how many really good bets i see coming up. I put a little on Thiago Silva at +185, and i thin Josh Thompson over the over-rated Gilbert Melendez at -115.

sorry, i couldn't fine a clean way to put the lines below, here is the rest of the UFC 100 card:

Jon Jones -500 vs. Jake O'Brien +300

Jim Miller -200 vs. Mac Danzig +160

Jon Fitch -365 vs. Paulo Thiago +285

Akiyama -340 vs. Alan Belcher +265

Stephan Bonner -325 vs. Marc Coleman +250

 
At first glance there isn't too much I like on this card for individual fights. Too much juice for a lot of them and I don't see many upsets except for Mir. I will be throwing down a bunch of parlays though.

So far:

Mir +195

GSP/Hendo

Bonnar/Fitch

Jones/Bonnar/Fitch

GSP/Fitch/Jones

 
I think betting Mir is throwing away money. I know he looked very good against Nog, but considering Nog was fighting injury and had suffered a staph infection during training, I'm not sure that win is much of a feather for Mir. In the rematch, Lesnar's size and wrestling ability will simply be too much for Mir, and I seriously doubt Lesnar gives him a stray limb to hang onto this time.

Would be shocked if Henderson doesn't win.

O'Brien looks like a nice play for a dog. If he can avoid getting KOed, O'Brien should be able to take down Jones and at least 1/3 of the time will smother Jones for 15 minutes to get the decision.

Fitch should dismantle Thiago. Koscheck was on his way to doing so before getting sloppy. Fitch won't get sloppy.

On paper, Akiyama should win, but it can be scary to back hyped guys that haven't fought in a cage.

BTW - Carwin / Velazquez is rumored for UFC 104. That'll be sweet, but I'm not sure how to lean. The key will be whether Velazquez can get it to the ground (and keep it there) without taking a vicious KO.

 
Clayton Gray said:
I think betting Mir is throwing away money. I know he looked very good against Nog, but considering Nog was fighting injury and had suffered a staph infection during training, I'm not sure that win is much of a feather for Mir. In the rematch, Lesnar's size and wrestling ability will simply be too much for Mir, and I seriously doubt Lesnar gives him a stray limb to hang onto this time.Would be shocked if Henderson doesn't win.O'Brien looks like a nice play for a dog. If he can avoid getting KOed, O'Brien should be able to take down Jones and at least 1/3 of the time will smother Jones for 15 minutes to get the decision.Fitch should dismantle Thiago. Koscheck was on his way to doing so before getting sloppy. Fitch won't get sloppy.On paper, Akiyama should win, but it can be scary to back hyped guys that haven't fought in a cage.BTW - Carwin / Velazquez is rumored for UFC 104. That'll be sweet, but I'm not sure how to lean. The key will be whether Velazquez can get it to the ground (and keep it there) without taking a vicious KO.
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I love Velazquez, but I'll be hitting Carwin hard in that one, might catch him at + odds too. We saw that Cain's standup still has A LOT of improving to do, and Carwin's power combined with his tremendous wrestling ability should allow him to keep this fight standing, where he will likely have a substantial advantage. Carwin's wrestling probably isn't on Cain's level, but even if Velasquez manages to get the fight to the ground, I don't think he'll have the strength to keep Carwin there...should be a great fight though. Winner gets a title shot I guess? I really hope they don't give it to the winner of Randy-Nog, because I don't think anybody wants to see a Lesnar-Couture rematch.
 
Love Fitch and Lesnar on the UFC 100 card...will likely parlay the two of them large and that could very well be the extent of my "real" action. I have a small play on Bisping at +300 which in all likelihood is just burning money, but at least I know I beat the line movement. Definitely think there is some value on Belcher at +260 so he's probably worth a small flier. It's a few months away (UFC 102) but I'll be on Nate Marquardt over Maia large. I'm not saying he's necessarily got the tools to beat Anderson Silva, but Nate's improved tremendously since he fought A.S the first time and is, IMO being largely overlooked in the middleweight championship picture. I'll likely place a bet on this after UFC 100. Maia's a BJJ ace and to me, his only clear path to victory is catching Nate in a sub. Nate's a well rounded monster that has tons of experience and should be able to prevent himself from getting rolled the way Sonnen did.

 
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sheerterror said:
Clayton Gray said:
I think betting Mir is throwing away money. I know he looked very good against Nog, but considering Nog was fighting injury and had suffered a staph infection during training, I'm not sure that win is much of a feather for Mir. In the rematch, Lesnar's size and wrestling ability will simply be too much for Mir, and I seriously doubt Lesnar gives him a stray limb to hang onto this time.Would be shocked if Henderson doesn't win.O'Brien looks like a nice play for a dog. If he can avoid getting KOed, O'Brien should be able to take down Jones and at least 1/3 of the time will smother Jones for 15 minutes to get the decision.Fitch should dismantle Thiago. Koscheck was on his way to doing so before getting sloppy. Fitch won't get sloppy.On paper, Akiyama should win, but it can be scary to back hyped guys that haven't fought in a cage.BTW - Carwin / Velazquez is rumored for UFC 104. That'll be sweet, but I'm not sure how to lean. The key will be whether Velazquez can get it to the ground (and keep it there) without taking a vicious KO.
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I love Velazquez, but I'll be hitting Carwin hard in that one, might catch him at + odds too. We saw that Cain's standup still has A LOT of improving to do, and Carwin's power combined with his tremendous wrestling ability should allow him to keep this fight standing, where he will likely have a substantial advantage. Carwin's wrestling probably isn't on Cain's level, but even if Velasquez manages to get the fight to the ground, I don't think he'll have the strength to keep Carwin there...should be a great fight though. Winner gets a title shot I guess? I really hope they don't give it to the winner of Randy-Nog, because I don't think anybody wants to see a Lesnar-Couture rematch.
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I may have gotten a little carried away, but i put 2 units on Carwin last night. Line is Carwin -130 vs. Cain (ev). I put 1 unit on Carwin, then i was checking out the MMA wagering thread on MMAJunkie and i saw Performity plucked down 3 units on Carwin, so i put another one down. I have no idea where that line goes, but Carwin should win. His wresling is good enough to handle Cain's. the seal on the deal for me was the fact that Carwin trains with Greg Jackson and the rest of them. I am sure his wrestling will be fine working with GSP, Rashad, and Nate regularly. My only regret with it is that i realized the fight isn't only 10/24, so that is quite awhile to have that money sitting there.
 
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
Clayton Gray said:
I think betting Mir is throwing away money. I know he looked very good against Nog, but considering Nog was fighting injury and had suffered a staph infection during training, I'm not sure that win is much of a feather for Mir. In the rematch, Lesnar's size and wrestling ability will simply be too much for Mir, and I seriously doubt Lesnar gives him a stray limb to hang onto this time.Would be shocked if Henderson doesn't win.O'Brien looks like a nice play for a dog. If he can avoid getting KOed, O'Brien should be able to take down Jones and at least 1/3 of the time will smother Jones for 15 minutes to get the decision.Fitch should dismantle Thiago. Koscheck was on his way to doing so before getting sloppy. Fitch won't get sloppy.On paper, Akiyama should win, but it can be scary to back hyped guys that haven't fought in a cage.BTW - Carwin / Velazquez is rumored for UFC 104. That'll be sweet, but I'm not sure how to lean. The key will be whether Velazquez can get it to the ground (and keep it there) without taking a vicious KO.
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I love Velazquez, but I'll be hitting Carwin hard in that one, might catch him at + odds too. We saw that Cain's standup still has A LOT of improving to do, and Carwin's power combined with his tremendous wrestling ability should allow him to keep this fight standing, where he will likely have a substantial advantage. Carwin's wrestling probably isn't on Cain's level, but even if Velasquez manages to get the fight to the ground, I don't think he'll have the strength to keep Carwin there...should be a great fight though. Winner gets a title shot I guess? I really hope they don't give it to the winner of Randy-Nog, because I don't think anybody wants to see a Lesnar-Couture rematch.
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I may have gotten a little carried away, but i put 2 units on Carwin last night. Line is Carwin -130 vs. Cain (ev). I put 1 unit on Carwin, then i was checking out the MMA wagering thread on MMAJunkie and i saw Performity plucked down 3 units on Carwin, so i put another one down. I have no idea where that line goes, but Carwin should win. His wresling is good enough to handle Cain's. the seal on the deal for me was the fact that Carwin trains with Greg Jackson and the rest of them. I am sure his wrestling will be fine working with GSP, Rashad, and Nate regularly. My only regret with it is that i realized the fight isn't only 10/24, so that is quite awhile to have that money sitting there.
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Wow, didn't realize that line came out already - thanks for the heads up. Definitely wouldn't consider that carried away man, I think it's a great bet, but as you said, it's a long time to have that money tied up. I'm likely going to wait until after UFC 101 to place the bet - Cain's got enough hype now that I don't see this line getting too out of control. Usually Perf beats line movement pretty well, so that's the one thing scaring me, but I won't mind laying -150 on Carwin at all. I'd probably bet him all the way up to -200 in all honesty, only thing is the worse the line gets, the less of a payout I'd get.ETA: -140 at SB now.
 
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sheerterror said:
Wow, didn't realize that line came out already - thanks for the heads up. Definitely wouldn't consider that carried away man, I think it's a great bet, but as you said, it's a long time to have that money tied up. I'm likely going to wait until after UFC 101 to place the bet - Cain's got enough hype now that I don't see this line getting too out of control. Usually Perf beats line movement pretty well, so that's the one thing scaring me, but I won't mind laying -150 on Carwin at all. I'd probably bet him all the way up to -200 in all honesty, only thing is the worse the line gets, the less of a payout I'd get.ETA: -140 at SB now.
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Yeah, i agree 100% with you. There are sometimes the line beating is really worth it (like the time frame of Fitch for -250 for about a week or so), but I agree I don't see Carwin getting to out of control. Luckily i have done alright with some of the other betting lately, and i had some money i could store away. I got crushed on a lot of pending bets (Sherk, Cavs, etc.), and the only other pending bets i have of substance are the one's coming up at UFC 100. Anyway, i agree the line movement on this one won't be too bad, i just had an itchy trigger finger last night and basically put it in the bank until October. Still not as bad as that friggin' bet on Moussasi to win the Super Hulk tournament. Last i saw i think it is set to end for the New Year's eve show.
 
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
Wow, didn't realize that line came out already - thanks for the heads up. Definitely wouldn't consider that carried away man, I think it's a great bet, but as you said, it's a long time to have that money tied up. I'm likely going to wait until after UFC 101 to place the bet - Cain's got enough hype now that I don't see this line getting too out of control. Usually Perf beats line movement pretty well, so that's the one thing scaring me, but I won't mind laying -150 on Carwin at all. I'd probably bet him all the way up to -200 in all honesty, only thing is the worse the line gets, the less of a payout I'd get.ETA: -140 at SB now.
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Yeah, i agree 100% with you. There are sometimes the line beating is really worth it (like the time frame of Fitch for -250 for about a week or so), but I agree I don't see Carwin getting to out of control. Luckily i have done alright with some of the other betting lately, and i had some money i could store away. I got crushed on a lot of pending bets (Sherk, Cavs, etc.), and the only other pending bets i have of substance are the one's coming up at UFC 100. Anyway, i agree the line movement on this one won't be too bad, i just had an itchy trigger finger last night and basically put it in the bank until October. Still not as bad as that friggin' bet on Moussasi to win the Super Hulk tournament. Last i saw i think it is set to end for the New Year's eve show.
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Ugh, horrible. Glad I didn't tie up that much on it, but annoying nonetheless. What do you think of his chances against Babalu at the August Affliction card?
 
sheerterror said:
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
Wow, didn't realize that line came out already - thanks for the heads up. Definitely wouldn't consider that carried away man, I think it's a great bet, but as you said, it's a long time to have that money tied up. I'm likely going to wait until after UFC 101 to place the bet - Cain's got enough hype now that I don't see this line getting too out of control. Usually Perf beats line movement pretty well, so that's the one thing scaring me, but I won't mind laying -150 on Carwin at all. I'd probably bet him all the way up to -200 in all honesty, only thing is the worse the line gets, the less of a payout I'd get.

ETA: -140 at SB now.
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Yeah, i agree 100% with you. There are sometimes the line beating is really worth it (like the time frame of Fitch for -250 for about a week or so), but I agree I don't see Carwin getting to out of control. Luckily i have done alright with some of the other betting lately, and i had some money i could store away. I got crushed on a lot of pending bets (Sherk, Cavs, etc.), and the only other pending bets i have of substance are the one's coming up at UFC 100. Anyway, i agree the line movement on this one won't be too bad, i just had an itchy trigger finger last night and basically put it in the bank until October. Still not as bad as that friggin' bet on Moussasi to win the Super Hulk tournament. Last i saw i think it is set to end for the New Year's eve show.
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Ugh, horrible. Glad I didn't tie up that much on it, but annoying nonetheless. What do you think of his chances against Babalu at the August Affliction card?
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I think Mousasi, but I'm not entirely sure. I put a little on him when the line first opened up at -135 i think, but it isn't a bet i am sold on by far. I think it will be a real good one to catch though, Babalu has looked much better lately, and his stand-up is much crisper. A very good match-up i think, and I'm looking at it a lot like the Nate vs. Maia fight. I agree with you that i think Nate can win that one, but betting against Maia is tough to do. If either guy were more than +150 i would think about giving it a shot, but I am happy to sit back an enjoy that one. I do think Nate wins, but i don't know if i would put a lot of money on it. there are other bets i am looking to take though, if the majority of the UFC 100 bets cash. I think Josh Thompson will kick the crap out of Melendez again. Melendez does have a good bunch of guys to train with, but i think Thompson will do just fine again. I put a little on Thiago Silva at +185 because that line is out of whack a bit. I like Jardine, and to think i took him against Rampage, but now i will take Silva over him is dumb, dumb betting, but it was a .5 unit play.

Do you see the lines for UFC 100 moving a lot? I think there will be a lot of action on this card, but i was wrong with the movement on the Lesnar fight. Not sure how they will move now. I am tempted to put a little more on Lesnar at -215 because i have to think the public will come flying in on him. I'm really hoping the Thiago Alves hype machine helps to pull down the number on GSP, but i doubt it. I am very confident in GSP winning that one though, so safe money is definately betting on him, in my opinion. not sure if anything else will move, but i think a lot of action comes in, and i know like with the Diaz-Shamrock fight, some late betting really paid off when Diaz jumped +40 or +50 that day.

 
Wow looking at that Thiago Alves-GSP line it I can def see people putting money on Alves at +250. There is a decent chance for an upset. Depending on if alves has worked on takedown defense I think his strength will help him in that fight.Plus I believe he will eat GSP up in the standup. I would expect people to start jumping on that bargain. Look for the GSP -400 to go down.

And that Forrest Griffin +220 is looking nice too.

 
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drotheman said:
Wow looking at that Thiago Alves-GSP line it I can def see people putting money on Alves at +250. There is a decent chance for an upset. Depending on if alves has worked on takedown defense I think his strength will help him in that fight.Plus I believe he will eat GSP up in the standup. I would expect people to start jumping on that bargain. Look for the GSP -400 to go down.And that Forrest Griffin +220 is looking nice too.
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I really disagree with GSP. I think Forrest does have a chance (huge step-up from Irvin, the guy had the LHW belt for a reason), but not sure how much. As for GSP, if Koscheck, Fitch, Hughes, and especially BJ Penn can't stop GSP's takedowns, no way Thiago can learn to in a few months. And i don't know why people are so confident in Thiago in the stand-up, GSP will be quicker and more technically sound. Thiago does not have tremendous one-punch KO power, and I can't think of anyother time i saw GSP truly in trouble in the stand-up game other then the 1st Serra fight. Fitch landed some nice shots, and i don't remember seeing GSP in trouble during that period. I also think Thiago has to win this in the first 3 rounds, if it goes 5 I am not positive Thiago will look great in the 4th and 5th.Now i think i have taken this to the point where i will have to eat my words if GSP loses, but I really can't see it. of course i am sure i sounded like this for Sherk vs. Edgar as well, but at least i thought the only way Sherk could lose that is if he was an idiot and thought he could outbox Edgar. I think even if GSP wants to outstirke Thiago he can. His chances are certainly not as good, but he can.
 
I see Alves having a shot because we have not seen GSP vs striker as good as Thiago, and Alves was able keep the fight on the feet vs Koscheck and Hughes. I think this fight is easily the best on the card and expect more money to come in on GSP making Alves looking like a good bet.

 
Clayton Gray said:
I think betting Mir is throwing away money. I know he looked very good against Nog, but considering Nog was fighting injury and had suffered a staph infection during training, I'm not sure that win is much of a feather for Mir. In the rematch, Lesnar's size and wrestling ability will simply be too much for Mir, and I seriously doubt Lesnar gives him a stray limb to hang onto this time.Would be shocked if Henderson doesn't win.O'Brien looks like a nice play for a dog. If he can avoid getting KOed, O'Brien should be able to take down Jones and at least 1/3 of the time will smother Jones for 15 minutes to get the decision.Fitch should dismantle Thiago. Koscheck was on his way to doing so before getting sloppy. Fitch won't get sloppy.On paper, Akiyama should win, but it can be scary to back hyped guys that haven't fought in a cage.
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I agree about O'Brien. At -350 he is a good play. Jones' biggest issue in the Bonnar fight was his cardio. I expect O'Brien to make this a wrestling match and I think there is a better than -350 chance that Jake can win a decision.
 
Pick said:
Does anyone else Tivo and then watch these? I can't watch them live.
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I have. I actually DVR them since i have DirecTV, but as long as i can remember not to check anything out, and i can get back and start watching the fights right away.
 
Sebowski said:
Clayton Gray said:
I think betting Mir is throwing away money. I know he looked very good against Nog, but considering Nog was fighting injury and had suffered a staph infection during training, I'm not sure that win is much of a feather for Mir. In the rematch, Lesnar's size and wrestling ability will simply be too much for Mir, and I seriously doubt Lesnar gives him a stray limb to hang onto this time.

Would be shocked if Henderson doesn't win.

O'Brien looks like a nice play for a dog. If he can avoid getting KOed, O'Brien should be able to take down Jones and at least 1/3 of the time will smother Jones for 15 minutes to get the decision.

Fitch should dismantle Thiago. Koscheck was on his way to doing so before getting sloppy. Fitch won't get sloppy.

On paper, Akiyama should win, but it can be scary to back hyped guys that haven't fought in a cage.
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I agree about O'Brien. At -350 he is a good play. Jones' biggest issue in the Bonnar fight was his cardio. I expect O'Brien to make this a wrestling match and I think there is a better than -350 chance that Jake can win a decision.
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Performify has his undercard picks in (main card coming tomorrow) and agrees on O'Brien.
Jon "Bones" Jones (8-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC), has made a splash since his UFC debut in August 2008. After posting a 6-0 record (with six finishes) in a variety of Northeast shows, Jones has picked up back-to-back decision victories over Andre Gusmao (UFC 87) and Stephan Bonnar (UFC 94) in the UFC. His stand-up style, which includes flashy strikes and kicks from all angles, and an effective sprawl have earned the 21-year-old former JUCO national wrestling champion a quick following.

Jake O'Brien (11-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC), a former heavyweight, fights here for the second time as a light heavyweight. After amassing a 3-2 record as a heavyweight, which included TKO losses to Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez in the final two bouts, the former Purdue University wrestler made the drop to 205 pounds and defeated Christian Wellisch via split decision in January at UFC 94.

O'Brien is primarily a wrestler with good power in his standup game. While Jones' flashy striking skills have earned him a quick following, he should not be such a significant favorite here in my opinion. Most likely, we'll see O'Brien frustrated by Jones' unorthodox striking techniques en route to another unanimous decision victory for the 21-year-old prospect.

However, as such a significant underdog, I think O'Brien is worth a small bet as he has the power to finish the fight on the feet if he can connect, and his wrestling skills and size could put Jones on his back. We've yet to see if the former JUCO champion fights effectively from his back, but it's typical for young wrestlers to be extremely uncomfortable there, and as such it's a possible path to victory for O'Brien, in the same way he was able to utilize his wrestling and top control to defeat Heath Herring at UFC Fight Night 8. O'Brien by unanimous decision victory in the longshot upset.
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Pick said:
Does anyone else Tivo and then watch these? I can't watch them live.
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When my BIL and a couple buddies are coming over i always DVR them. I always miss some of the early action because of the eating, drinking and insulting each other stuff.I go back and watch what i missed later.
 
Clayton Gray said:
Performify has his undercard picks in (main card coming tomorrow) and agrees on O'Brien.
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Nice. That guy makes good picks. I haven't gotten around to reading them for this one yet.
Pick said:
Does anyone else Tivo and then watch these? I can't watch them live.
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90% of the time. I work till 10PT. I was going to leave early for this one, but other people from work can't and they way to watch too.

 
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I know nothing about Gugerty or Grice, but Performify likes Gugerty for a 2u play at -105, line is now -140/+110 at SB. My local mixed these up after finally putting up the undercard lines, so I grabbed Gugerty at +110 for 2u...may buy a unit off if the lines correct themselves and Grice moves to +110.

 
sheerterror said:
I know nothing about Gugerty or Grice, but Performify likes Gugerty for a 2u play at -105, line is now -140/+110 at SB. My local mixed these up after finally putting up the undercard lines, so I grabbed Gugerty at +110 for 2u...may buy a unit off if the lines correct themselves and Grice moves to +110.
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yeah i saw that too and i grabbed Gugerty for $90 (my unit system is so screwed up at this point, i have zero self-discipline with my units for this card since i have been betting on it since March and my numbers are all over the place). I looked around and it doesn't really seem that anybody is that high on him. But I also don't see anybody really high on Grice, so hopefuly Performity knows something there. and i really did just check out about 6-7 other sites with reliable picks, and there doesn't seem to be much of a lean either way. I really am not looking to add too much unless some real value comes in the lines, but i would like to take some action on Bonner. I hate the -325, but i am pretty confident Bonner wins that one, just a lot of juice to be laying on.
 
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
I know nothing about Gugerty or Grice, but Performify likes Gugerty for a 2u play at -105, line is now -140/+110 at SB. My local mixed these up after finally putting up the undercard lines, so I grabbed Gugerty at +110 for 2u...may buy a unit off if the lines correct themselves and Grice moves to +110.
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yeah i saw that too and i grabbed Gugerty for $90 (my unit system is so screwed up at this point, i have zero self-discipline with my units for this card since i have been betting on it since March and my numbers are all over the place). I looked around and it doesn't really seem that anybody is that high on him. But I also don't see anybody really high on Grice, so hopefuly Performity knows something there. and i really did just check out about 6-7 other sites with reliable picks, and there doesn't seem to be much of a lean either way. I really am not looking to add too much unless some real value comes in the lines, but i would like to take some action on Bonner. I hate the -325, but i am pretty confident Bonner wins that one, just a lot of juice to be laying on.
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http://blog.mmaratings.net/2009/07/picks-a...or-ufc-100.htmlThis guy is pretty solid, and he's on Bonnar very large. I agree that it's hard to lay that kind of juice on a non-elite fighter like Bonnar, but Coleman is just so one dimensional and old with an extremely limited amount of endurance - it's hard to see him win in any fashion. I think Bonnar represents excellent parlay-filler material.

I'm awaiting Performify's writeup for the main card, but as it stands right now, I'm going to end up on Brock for about a unit, in addition to a nice sized parlay of Brock along with Fitch, and then maybe some sort of combination of Brock, Fitch, Bonnar, Gugerty and possibly TJ Grant.

 
sheerterror said:
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
I know nothing about Gugerty or Grice, but Performify likes Gugerty for a 2u play at -105, line is now -140/+110 at SB. My local mixed these up after finally putting up the undercard lines, so I grabbed Gugerty at +110 for 2u...may buy a unit off if the lines correct themselves and Grice moves to +110.
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yeah i saw that too and i grabbed Gugerty for $90 (my unit system is so screwed up at this point, i have zero self-discipline with my units for this card since i have been betting on it since March and my numbers are all over the place). I looked around and it doesn't really seem that anybody is that high on him. But I also don't see anybody really high on Grice, so hopefuly Performity knows something there. and i really did just check out about 6-7 other sites with reliable picks, and there doesn't seem to be much of a lean either way. I really am not looking to add too much unless some real value comes in the lines, but i would like to take some action on Bonner. I hate the -325, but i am pretty confident Bonner wins that one, just a lot of juice to be laying on.
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http://blog.mmaratings.net/2009/07/picks-a...or-ufc-100.htmlThis guy is pretty solid, and he's on Bonnar very large. I agree that it's hard to lay that kind of juice on a non-elite fighter like Bonnar, but Coleman is just so one dimensional and old with an extremely limited amount of endurance - it's hard to see him win in any fashion. I think Bonnar represents excellent parlay-filler material.

I'm awaiting Performify's writeup for the main card, but as it stands right now, I'm going to end up on Brock for about a unit, in addition to a nice sized parlay of Brock along with Fitch, and then maybe some sort of combination of Brock, Fitch, Bonnar, Gugerty and possibly TJ Grant.
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yeah, i was high on Bonner before, then i read that a few hours ago, and it certainly seems like a lock to me too. and quick question for you guys. I am a little concerned i went a little heavy on bets on Belcher and Grant. Not too much, but a little bit more than maybe i would like. What is killing me about them, is that what i will win off of GSP will all be lost if both of those guys lose. i hate hedging with guys who are such large profits, so i may let it ride, so should i put more on GSP, or should i hedge Grant and Belcher a bit? i don't want to overthink this one, i think a Lesnar, Fitch, GSP, Bonner parlay will make things seem more profitable.

 
lumpy19 said:
sheerterror said:
Performify laying TONS of chalk on this card: http://mmajunkie.com/news/15464/performify...0-main-card.mma

His large plays include Lesnar (risking 9u) Bonnar (risking 7u) and Henderson (risking 4.3u).
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I'm tailing his big plays. Probably going to purchase my first UFC fight tomorrow night.
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It's a fantastic card to purchase Lump, should be some amazing fights. I really do like all of Perf's picks - with the exception of GSP over Alves, but moreso because I don't want to have to root for anyone in that fight, I just want to enjoy it. Some of the heavy chalk plays will make great parlays, so I'd recommend if you have a book (i.e. BetUs) that takes MMA parlays, to get down on that. Over the next few hours, I'm going to be racking my brain figuring out the best combination of fights to parlay to give me the best expected results. Of all the fights on the card, my highest confidence is in Lesnar and Fitch, so those 2 will be staples of all my parlays. Beyond that, I'll throw in a Henderson or Bonnar, and beef up the payout with a Belcher, Gugerty or Grant.I've got small straight plays on Bisping at +300 (don't like himto win, but the line was wayyyy off when it came out at -500/+300), Belcher at +220 and Grant at +250 at Sportsbook for action's sake, but my big money will be going through the local where I can parlay.

 
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