Results of 4-5 for -1.4 units for public predictions for UFC 100 bring the running total for my public predictions since UFC 75 to 83-62 for +33.045 units. Despite the results for UFC 100, I feel I was correct in much of my analysis obviously since I got the main card entirely correct (despite losing the Alan Belcher bout, it's obvious that he was the right side at +210). Looking back, I feel I only really missed the Stephan Bonnar/Mark Coleman prediction. I definitely didn't see that coming, though I have to give props to The Junkie himself, who did.
As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com's recommended sportsbook, Bodog. It's easy to open an account at Bodog; you can fund your Bodog account with as little as $25 and bet as little as $1 on fights. Until you've experienced the added excitement of betting on MMA, you really haven't watched MMA. Having your heart race when "your" fighter steps into the cage – even if you've only got a few dollars in play – is a feeling like none other. (But you should only wager you'd feel comfortable losing. Be sure to keep it fun.)
If you're interested in learning more about betting on MMA, be sure to check out our MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series, which allows even the most novice bettor to be a longterm winner wagering on MMA. You can also stay up to date with the latest MMA and UFC odds directly via our UFC Odds page.
B.J. Penn (-240) vs. Kenny Florian (+210)
After coaching on "The Ultimate Fighter 5" and taking part in several of MMA's biggest fights, B.J. Penn (13-5-1 MMA, 9-4-1 UFC) needs little introduction to even casual fans of MMA. But in case this is your first ever fight, all you need to know is Penn is a jiu-jitsu phenom with elite takedown defense, great footwork and excellent boxing. He possesses unparalleled flexibility and is a true well-rounded mixed martial artist.
Runner-up on the first season of "The Ultimate Fighter," Kenny Florian (11-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC) trains under Mark DellaGrotte at Sityodtong Muay Thai Academy in Somerville, Mass. Florian is well-rounded but not exceptional at any one skill, though he's demonstrated nice progression in his Muay Thai skills in his past two fights. Florian's best offensive weapons are his elbows, which are "razor sharp" and have a strong propensity for drawing blood on his opponents.
A lot of people have the mistaken impression that Florian should be labeled a young up-and-coming fighter. In actuality, while he has shown improvement in his past few fights, Florian is actually three years older than Penn (33 vs. Penn's age of 30) and has been fighting professionally almost as long as his opponent (six years and eight months for Florian compared to just over eight years for Penn). Both have about the same number of overall fights, 14 fights to Penn's 18. Florian's first professional fight was in January 2003. Penn's came in May 2001, meaning the difference in experience is only 20 months.
Penn trained in Cosa Mesa, Calif., for this fight, the first time in a long time that he's trained outside of Hilo, Hawaii, in no small part in response to criticism that he lacked focus in training at home. He brought in a variety of quality sparring partners, including Yves Edwards and Nick Diaz and Nate Diaz, but he also spent considerable time training cardio, explosiveness, strength and general athleticism under the legendary Marv Marinovich of Sports Lab. Penn specifically reported that this level of preparation was "unlike anything he'd ever done" in preparing for a fight.
Penn is widely regarded as one of the most talented fighters in the sport and one of its best pound for pound. Florian has improved quite a bit since his stint on "TUF," but in my opinion, he is still significantly behind Penn in overall evaluation. Penn is one of the most talented in the world at Brazilian jiu jitsu and is widely considered world-class in two others: takedown defense, in no small part due to his insane flexibility and balance, and boxing, where he's been praised by elite boxing trainer Freddy Roach as "by far the best striker in MMA." Florian has developed good, or even bordering on great, skills in several skill areas, but he's not at "world class" level in any of them, let alone in the elite "best of the best of the best" in any one discipline.
As such I think Penn represents a significant mismatch for Florian in this fight. Penn is simply better in pretty much every single overall aspect of the fight game. Despite Florian's Muay Thai skills, Penn should be better in the standup game due to his superior boxing, excellent footwork and defensive head movement. Despite Florian's effective jiu-jitsu game, all BJJ black belts are not created equal, and Penn should have a meaningful edge on the ground. Florian demonstrated solid wrestling and takedown skills in his past two fights, yet Penn should actually have an advantage in overall grappling and wrestling, in no small part due to his edge in other aspects of the fight allowing him to be less predictable.
For those concerned about Penn returning to fight at lightweight after facing Georges St-Pierre at welterweight, there is no cause for concern. Penn was 161 pounds four days out from the fight, perfectly on schedule to make the 155-pound limit for this lightweight title fight. For those concerned about Penn's mental status, I think you shouldn't be; Penn has posted a very significant number of videos via his excellent website BJPenn.com, and I do think it's very possible to get a decent read on a fighter's mental state by extended viewing of training and interview footage. Penn has specifically said recently that he "(has) that fire again" and has "no lack of motivation coming off that tough loss." Perhaps most telling, Penn said in his most recent pre-fight video, "Actually I feel like there's no pressure on me. ... I'm coming off that tough loss. The way people are doubting me, it's like I'm on the bottom and there's only going up from here. It's straight up for me."
I've written before about overvaluing recent fights as one of the classic mistakes in MMA handicapping (see my MMA Wagering Guide series of articles), and I'd caution people evaluating this fight to put Penn's recent loss against St-Pierre in the proper perspective. In fact, I would go as far as to say that fight at 170 pounds should essentially be irrelevant to handicapping this fight. St-Pierre demonstrated in that fight that modern MMA has evolved to the point that the days of a smaller fighter using technical superiority to overcome a larger, stronger opponent are essentially behind us (see: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir at UFC 100 for an exclamation point on the concept).
Without taking anything at all away from St-Pierre, whom I personally consider to be the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet right now, Penn simply could not compete against a significantly stronger and larger opponent with elite wrestling and top control. If he had time to re-architect his body to walk around at a weight heavier than 170 and then cut down, it might have been a different story (or at least a more competitive outing). Instead, St-Pierre was able to neutralize Penn in every way, wearing him out after a generally competitive first round and absolutely dominating his smaller opponent in the later rounds. That result has essentially nothing to do with this fight; Florian doesn't have a similar extremely dominant edge in size, wrestling or strength, and he shouldn't be able to mimic St-Pierre's gameplan in leveraging those strengths against Penn.
Instead, I believe Florian will try to work kicks from distance, work in the clinch with Penn against the fence when his opponent closes ground, and may very well build on his recent success with takedowns to try to put Penn on his back and score points with takedowns. However, I believe Penn will actually have a significant edge in the standup game and very easily could score an early knockout with his superior striking ability and power. I also believe Penn's takedown defense should allow him to dictate the fight position more frequently than not, a marked difference from Florian's past two fights in which he generally was able to dictate fight position.
Penn doesn't appear typically to follow sophisticated game plans. Instead, it seems, he leverages his elite talent and well-rounded skills to play to whatever openings his opponent gives instead of trying to steer the fight in a specific direction. I believe Penn has the talent gap here to do so in any aspect of the fight game. If Florian wants to keep the fight standing, he'll find himself getting out-struck; if Florian wants to turn this in to a jiu-jitsu match, he'll find himself out-grappled. If Florian plans to take him down, Penn will defend and punish.
The only significantly likely path I see to victory for Florian is to leverage those deadly elbow strikes, which are equally vicious in any position on the ground or standing. Florian absolutely can open a fight-ending cut with his elbows, and he certainly could do enough damage with any given elbow to change the course of a fight.
However, Penn is able to absorb a ton of punishment, as evidenced most recently in taking an absolute beating at the hands of St-Pierre. It is extremely unlikely that Florian will be able to win via stoppage against Penn, given that he's significantly underpowered in striking compared to St-Pierre, who wasn't able to actually put Penn out despite delivering a metric ton of punishment in their fight.
It is also extremely unlikely to me that Florian is able to steal three of five rounds on points. Those thinking Florian can "take Penn into deep water and drown him" are making a mistake. Penn's oft-hyped "poor cardio" is vastly overstated, if not entirely a myth, and is especially less than relevant here given Penn's increased focus on cardio and athleticism for this fight.
While I intend absolutely no disrespect to "Ken-Flo" – I think he's excellent on "MMA Live," and from everything I've seen he's a great person – I don't think Florian is remotely on Penn's level as a mixed martial artist. Despite the loss to St-Pierre, Penn is still one of the best MMA fighters in the world pound-for-pound. Florian has strung together an impressive win streak, but his best wins are over a massively overrated Huerta (see my previous article on some of the most overrated fighters in MMA from a gambling perspective) and an extremely one-dimensional Joe Stevenson. Florian could barely win a single round in five against Sherk less than two years ago; he won one round on two of the three judges' cards, and Sherk is likewise extremely one-dimensional. There is little reason to think he can edge even a single round against Penn, let alone string several together.
I think this fight looks a lot like Penn vs. Stevenson in terms of how it effectively plays out, regardless of which direction it actually takes. Penn does essentially anything he wants to Florian, beating him on the feet or on the ground at will, dominating him for a round or two, and finishing him late in the second or early in the third.
I recommended betting on Penn multiple times via my Twitter account. I recommended him at open, when he was down around -150. I recommended Penn when one book still had him at -190 as the rest were moving over -200, and I recommended him at -230 when most of the rest of the books were headed over -250. Penn is -240 on Bookmaker (BetCris for readers outside the U.S.). Bodog currently has Penn -270 as of this writing, and I believe even that price is going to beat the closing line: I expect this line to close with Penn at or even over -300. If you are not already in, get in now; there is still plenty of edge at -230. (And you can imagine how much I loved this line when it opened at -145.)
Penn line via Bookmaker.com
Anderson Silva (-335) vs. Forrest Griffin (+300)
If I were building a fighter from scratch to beat Anderson Silva (24-4 MMA, 9-0 UFC), he'd have a height and reach advantage, a tough chin that can take a beating, significantly superior size and strength, and top-tier grappling and especially a great top game. Forrest Griffin (16-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC) isn't perfect in every one of these areas, but he's by far the closest to this hypothetical opponent that Silva has faced. And more importantly, I think Griffin is going to use those attributes to hand "The Spider" his first UFC loss.
Silva is an elite striker and is huge for a middleweight while weighing around 225 pounds between fights. He also holds a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt from Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and trains with some of the best fighters in the world, including Lyoto Machida, the Nogueira brothers, Paulo Filho, Junior Dos Santos and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza. Silva's nine-fight UFC win streak is the longest in the history of the promotion.
Griffin is extremely well known from two stints on "The Ultimate Fighter," first as the winner of the first season and second as a coach on the seventh season opposite Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. Griffin became famous for his toe-to-toe brawl with Stephan Bonnar at the first version of The Ultimate Fighter Finale, but he's not the undisciplined brawler today that he was back then. Training with Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas has given Griffin better striking discipline, a discipline that's let him win fights against elite strikers such as Jackson and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, and win two of three rounds against Rashad Evans before Evans was able to change the course of the fight by catching a body kick and dumping Griffin on his back. Griffin is also extremely under-rated as a grappler, holding a BJJ brown belt but possessing great overall grappling skills and especially a very solid top game.
If Silva is huge for a middleweight, Griffin can best be described as a gargantuan light heavyweight. Griffin walks around near 240 pounds and is a full 6-foot-3. It's that size and strength, combined with Griffin's extremely effective top game and his discipline in the striking game, that I believe will combine to lead him to victory against Silva.
Silva's path to victory is the same that it's been in every one of his fights: He'll use his lethal striking and countering ability to blast his opponent's lights out. However, I believe Griffin can effectively avoid this; Jackson and Evans are both excellent counter strikers like Silva, and Griffin was able to win the standup war against both fighters, primarily by utilizing his range and especially depending on his kicks. After getting a kick caught against Evans (and having seen Silva catch James Irvin's kick and the devastating results), look for Griffin to sprinkle in noticeably fewer body kicks while instead focusing exclusively on punishing Silva's legs early. If Griffin can utilize his range early and stay out of the way of Silva's blasts the same way he did against Evans, Jackson and Rua, he can use his size and strength to get inside on Silva, dump him to the mat, and hold him down. Griffin's strength and cardio should allow him to wear Silva out on the mat, especially as Silva has rarely been tested in deep waters and never at the 205-pound weight class.
At the current market line, Griffin is being given only a one-in-four chance to win this fight. I think based on the above, the line should be much closer, and Griffin represents a great underdog bet. Silva is still very much the favorite, and it's very likely that this fight ends in yet another dominant Silva knockout since Griffin doesn't have the perfect beard necessary to instill extreme confidence in the upset (that was evidenced by Griffin getting caught against Jardine and getting rocked by Evans on the ground). Still, I think Griffin wins this fight enough to make a moderate play on the heavy underdog.
Silva line via Bookmaker.com
Amir Sadollah (-120) vs. Johny Hendricks (-105)
Winner of the seventh season of "The Ultimate Fighter," Amir Sadollah is 1-0 in professional MMA, defeating C.B. Dollaway by armbar in the series finale. Sadollah is a white belt in BJJ but holds a black belt in Sambo (the Russian martial art practiced by Fedor Emelianenko). Sadollah trains with Xtrme Couture and has had plenty of time in the gym since winning "TUF 7" more than a year ago. He's been sidelined from UFC competition for almost 14 months due to a broken clavicle and a serious staph infection.
Johny Hendricks (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) went 2-0 in the WEC before the welterweight division was folded into the UFC. Hendricks was an elite collegiate wrestler, a four-time All-American and two-time national champion for top wrestling school Oklahoma State. Hendricks trains at Team Takedown with Jake Rosholt and Shane Roller (Team Takedown is a new concept in MMA, run as a business in which the team sponsors the fighters by signing them to seven-year contracts that include salaries plus all their expenses, including houses, training, medical coverage and cars) in exchange for 50 percent of their earnings).
I'm not interested in betting this fight; past outcomes would indicate that Hendricks is at risk for a submission from the bottom, along the lines of Sadollah's arm-bar victory over Dollaway. Additionally, Sadollah's extremely long layoff presents significant cause for concern. I think this line is extremely well set; it's indeed a coin flip. If either fighter moved to a positive number, I'd probably recommend a small play, but as it stands, too much variance with too little information available.
Kendall Grove (+130) vs. Ricardo Almeida (-160)
I like Ricardo Almeida (10-3 MMA, 3-3 UFC) to win here. Kendall Grove (10-5 MMA, 5-2 UFC) is primarily a striker who uses his 6-foot-6 frame to defeat opponents with Muay Thai skills and frustrate them with his significant reach advantage. Almeida is a grappling wizard and holds a third degree black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu. His standup skills and wrestling have been less than effective in his recent fights, but his grappling skills and ability to pull guard make him dangerous in any fight.
Grove doesn't use his reach as well as he should. He's primarily a Muay Thai fighter who does most of his damage from the clinch and from inside, with elbows and knees. And if he's in range to hit Almeida with a knee or elbow, he's in range of going to the ground and getting submitted since those lanky limbs present attractive targets on the ground. Grove's also shown a poor chin and seemed to lack the fire to finish in his fight against Evan Tanner.
I believe Almeida should be able to get this fight to the ground enough of the time to warrant a bet. Even if he doesn't have the wrestling skills to shoot for a traditional takedown, he can pull guard or work several drag or trip takedowns from the clinch. Once on the ground, Grove is significantly outmatched and likely to be submitted rather quickly.
Josh Neer (-200) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+190)
The first fight of the main card should be an exciting battle between these two well-rounded lightweight competitors. Josh Neer (25-7-1 MMA, 4-4 UFC) trains under Pat Miletich in Iowa. Kurt Pellegrino is fighting essentially on home turf; he trains in Belmar, N.J., about 75 miles away from the Wachovia Center. Neer is a huge lightweight and will have a serious advantage on the feet with superior reach and power. Pellegrino is a much more decorated grappler as a multiple time NAGA and Grapplers Quest winner and holding a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu.
Both fighters are 4-2 in their past six fights and both lost to Nate Diaz last year – Pellegrino by triangle choke at UFC Fight Night 13 and Neer by a close split decision at UFC Fight Night 15.
Neer's size and strength advantage combined with an underrated grappling game should allow him to dictate where the fight will take place. If Neer can keep this fight standing, he should knock out Pellegrino. If Pellegrino surprises and can get the fight to the ground, he might have the ability to finish Neer on paper, but Neer's size and strength make him tough to submit.
Keep an eye on this line, as Bodog is shading a lot heavier toward Neer than any of the rest of the sites. Be sure to line shop!
Neer line via Bookmaker.com
PRELIMINARY CARD
Shane Nelson (+130) vs. Aaron Riley (-160)
This isn't a "glitch in the Matrix." Shane Nelson and Aaron Riley fought each other recently at UFC 96. There, Nelson won via TKO thanks to an extremely controversial early stoppage by referee Rick Fike.
A contestant on the eighth season of "The Ultimate Fighter," Nelson is 2-0 in the UFC and 12-3 as a professional fighter. Fighting out of Hilo, Hawaii, he trains under B.J. Penn, and has earned a purple belt in jiu jitsu in study under "The Prodigy." Nelson trained for this fight in Costa Mesa, Calif., alongside his mentor and was able to leverage the same championship-level training partners and facilities in use by Penn.
Riley is an MMA veteran with a 27-11-1 professional record that includes contests in PRIDE, the IFL and BodogFIGHT. This is the 28-year-old's third stint with the UFC )he lost a unanimous decision to Robbie Lawler back at UFC 37 in 2002). After nine fights outside the organization, including a win over Michihiro Omigawa in PRIDE, Riley returned to the UFC at UFC Fight Night 3 in January 2006. After losing to Spencer Fisher by TKO there, Riley fought five times outside the organization before returning to face Jorge Gurgel at UFC 91. There, Riley won a unanimous decision as well as "Fight of the Night" honors, bringing his UFC record to 1-2 before it was evened up against Nelson at UFC 96.
Riley is a former Golden Gloves boxer and holds a purple belt in jiu jitsu from Ricardo Liborio. He formerly trained with American Top Team but recently made the switch to Greg Jackson's camp in New Mexico.
Nelson has a more impressive record on paper, but his record is padded with fights against mediocre competition in Hawaii as well as two close split-decision victories. Nelson has also struggled finishing opponents and has gone to decision in 10 of his 15 fights. Riley has an extensive edge in MMA experience and should get a nice bump in preparation moving to Jackon's MMA. Still, Riley has struggled every time he's stepped up into the big leagues, with the exception of the decision victory over the enigmatic Gurgel. It will be interesting to see if Riley is affected mentally by the previous early stoppage, but unless he is, he should likely take this fight.
Tamdan McCrory (-175) vs. John Howard (+145)
Tamdan McCrory (11-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC) stands 6-foot-4 and is incredibly tall for a welterweight. He's reportedly put on quite a bit of muscle on his already large frame and is reportedly walking around at 205 pounds between fights now. So assuming he successfully makes weight without problem, he will be significantly larger than his opponent, John "Doomsday" Howard, wwho stands only 5-foot-7. So, McCrory will have a full nine inches of height advantage.
Howard's main background is in boxing, but more than half of his wins have come by way of submission. McCrory took up MMA only recently but took to the sport quickly. His resume includes a mix of wins by knockout and submission.
Both fighters like to strike, but if Howard is smart, he'll try to close the gap on McCrory's significant reach advantage and take the fight to the ground. McCrory definitely has submission skills of his own, but both of his defeats have come by way of submission, and that's likely the best way for Howard to attack.
Thales Leites (-345) vs. Alessio Sakara (+325)
With a single lackluster performance against Anderson Silva, Thales Leites (14-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC) falls from competing for the middleweight title to being buried in the middle of the preliminary card in his next fight. Leites, who lost a unanimous decision to Silva at UFC 97, holds a BJJ black belt under Welton Ribeiro and trains at Nova Uniao under Andre Pederneiras.
Alessio "Legionarius" Sakara (13-7 MMA, 4-4 UFC) is a striker with a background in boxing; he went 29-3 in amateur boxing and now holds an 8-1 professional boxing record. A former light heavyweight, Sakara trains with American Top Team alongside a sizable stable of professional fighters. including Mike Brown, Thiago Alves and Gesias "JZ" Cavalcante.
Sakara's standup skills are solid, but his wrestling and jiu jitsu are lacking. There's little reason to think that Leites can't get this fight to the ground with ease, and there, he should be able to secure a fight-ending submission.
Sakara line via Bookmaker.com
Matt Riddle (-165) vs. Dan Cramer (+135)
Matt Riddle is 2-0 in his two professional fights, both with the UFC. Riddle was a Division I collegiate wrestler for two years before leaving school to focus on MMA. A contestant on the seventh season of "The Ultimate Fighter," Riddle holds a BJJ purple belt and trains at Arizona Combat Sports alongside C.B. Dollaway.
Dan Cramer won his only previous professional fight with a split decision over Matt Arroyo at UFC 94. Like Riddle, Cramer was also a contestant on the seventh season of "TUF." He was forced to withdraw from a scheduled preliminary-card fight on the show's finale due to a broken collarbone and instead making his UFC debut seven months later.
Cramer and Riddle have similar fight styles: Both have good wrestling, both are big welterweights who like to exchange on the feet, but both also like to use their size to effectively ground and pound their opponents. Riddle is a highly touted prospect and should have little trouble dispatching Cramer. He's a better wrestler, a better striker and has better credentials on the ground. Look for Riddle to out-wrestle Cramer and secure a victory via ground and pound.
Despite the overall inexperience of both fighters, I think this line has significant edge to warrant a decent bet. Cramer is very much a live underdog, especially if the two fighters go to war on their feet. Anything could happen. However, I think Riddle is able to dictate the pace and location of the fight a significant portion of the time to be worth a moderate, though high-variance, play. If you're more risk averse, I'd suggest backing off the recommended two-unit play to a single unit (or, as always, to whatever level you personally feel comfortable playing).
George Sotiropoulos (-380) vs. George Roop (+260)
Filling in on just two weeks' notice for an injured Rob Emerson, George Roop (9-4 MMA, 1-1 UFC) was a contestant on the eight season of "The Ultimate Fighter," fighting for Team Mir. Roop is primarily a striker, though he wrestled in high school at 112 pounds. Roop is a small lightweight and previously fought at bantamweight in the Rage in the Cage organization.
Australian George Sotiropoulos (9-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is a grappler and holds a black belt in BJJ under fellow Australian John Will (who was a student of Jean Jacques Machado). Sotiropoulos competed on the sixth season of "The Ultimate Fighter" and fought for Team Serra. Now training at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, Sotiropoulos is a former welterweight who is dropping down for his first fight at lightweight. He carries a three-fight winning streak into the contest, though he hasn't fought since an April 2008 victory over Roman Mitichyan.
Roop, who until recently had been helping Sotiropoulos train at the Las Vegas-based Xtreme Couture camp, will now take on the role of foe. Roop has fought to two split-decision results in the UFC, earning the win in one.
Roop should have an edge with his comparatively superior striking skills. However Sotiropoulos is larger, stronger and much more effective on the ground. He's also not fighting on two weeks' notice. Look for Roop to try to stay outside and attempt to win on points, but also look for that strategy to fall short against Sotiropoulos' ability to close ground, take the fight down and submit his training partner.
This line hasn't been released everywhere due to the short notice of the fight. If you can get Sotiropoulos under -400, he's a worthwhile bet.
Jesse Lennox (+170) vs. Danillo Villefort (-180)
Jesse Lennox (10-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) trains with the Miletich camp in Iowa and works as a paramedic. Lennox is primarily a wrestler who likes to put opponents on their backs and pound them out, though he has adequate striking on the feet. American Top Team fighter Danillo Villefort (9-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is a black belt in BJJ under Ricardo Liborio and also holds a black belt in judo.
Villefort must close the distance and force the fight to the ground to be successful. If Lennox can utilize his wrestling skills to keep the fight standing and not revert to his usual comfort zone of top control, he can definitely win this fight. However, I expect Villefort should be able to utilize his superior grappling skills to get inside and get the fight down through his judo skills, where he should be able to quickly finish Lennox. Lennox had a knee injury last year, and Villefort loves the leg locks, a favorable combination for the Brazilian-born fighter.
Lennox line via Bookmaker.com
Performify's Picks for UFC 101
B.J. Penn -240 : 4.8 units to win 2 units
Forrest Griffin +300 : .5 units to win 1.5 units
Ricardo Almeida -160 : 1.6 units to win 1 unit
Josh Neer -200 : 2 units to win 1 unit
Matt Riddle -165 : 2.5 units to win 1.5 units
George Sotiropoulos (-380) : 1.9 units to win .5 units
I'll be at the UFC Q&A tomorrow, where our guest will be Dana and Lorenzo. ANybody have anything they want me to ask them. I'll also be at the weigh-ins, and hope to catch some fighters pre-fight parties and such. I know Kenny is hosting something with tapout at one of the low class strip joints that is BYOB, so i will probably make my way to that one. but to the Q&A, i hope it is kick ###. the only thing i can think of to ask Dana and Lorenzo is about a tournament structure. i know they have discussed it over and over again, but something like the 4th season of TUF, or what DREAM does, could work. we'll see, but any other thoughts please post them
I don't agree with all he says but it was a very good read and the guy sure seems to know his stuff. One glaring omission is the ridiculous speed advantage that Silva will have over Griffin in the striking game.I don't agree with all he says but it was a very good read and the guy sure seems to know his stuff. One glaring omission is the ridiculous speed advantage that Silva will have over Griffin in the striking game.
hil Cardella +285Fredson Paixao -165 I got to look more into everything else, i like Bowles at first, but Torres is a bad dude. Tempted to bet Cruz for a little too.
Stupid sportsbook! First they cancel the 1.5 unit play i had on Mousasi over Babalu when the Affliction card was canceled, and i had it at -140. Of course a few days later they put it back up with Mousasi at -260. Sucked. Now they pulled a smart move with posting the Melendez-Ishida fight. I was never much of a Melendez fan, and i know other books had him at +200, which i was all about jumping on when sportsbook posted it. Well they posted it tonight, and they put Ishida at +155. Sucks.Stupid sportsbook! First they cancel the 1.5 unit play i had on Mousasi over Babalu when the Affliction card was canceled, and i had it at -140. Of course a few days later they put it back up with Mousasi at -260. Sucked. Now they pulled a smart move with posting the Melendez-Ishida fight. I was never much of a Melendez fan, and i know other books had him at +200, which i was all about jumping on when sportsbook posted it. Well they posted it tonight, and they put Ishida at +155. Sucks. I'm not sure what my final card will be for the event, but i will put 1.5 unit on Ishida for now. I wish i would have taken Cyborg when she was -115, and i stil may take a chance on her at -190. Sucks because i lost out on some good money i think there, but oh well. Some factors here people aren't thinking about, mainly the fact that it isn't a 9 minute fight, but a 5-minute, 5 round fight. Cyborg is a beast, but i am not positive at -190. If Gina can get to +170 or so i may take a flyer bet on her. Only other one i may take is the Heiron (-180) vs. JT Money (+150), leaning toward JT Money if we can get him higher. Heiron hasn't fought in a bit, and i am not sure his mental state after getting tossed from fight to fight lately. if JT Money moves up, i will likely take a flyer bet on him too
