SacramentoBob
Footballguy
Disagree. Fedor got manhandled by Bigfoot Silva. It'd be more of the same.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
UFC wagering: breaking news - judging is so terrible it got me to return here to update this thread title (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter AhrnCityPahnder
- Start date
hooter311
Footballguy
It would be epic as an event. The fight is likely to be a landslide one way or the other.
modogg
Footballguy
I do think that Silva owes a ton to Chael for the promoting he does. last time i checked Silva's contract is tied into PPV numbers, and Chael's is not. Even though Chael has personally insulted Anderson a few times, he has also put a lot of cash in his pocket for their last PPV, and for this upcoming one. Before Chael was around, we were looking at Silva-Maia, and Silva-Leittes. There are other competitors in the MW division that will make for some interesting fights, but Chael really did help bring the MW division out of the dark ages and bring interest to Silva's fights again.they don' call them fanatics for nothing. silva is a great champion but Sonnen has his # and now is in his head
Not sure if trollingBelieving that Anderson Silva - of all people - will knock Sonnen out is fanaticism? Am I reading your post wrong? I'm not even a big Anderson fan, and have played devil's advocate here in the past for a couple of his opponents.
Sonnen isn't unique. A number of opponents have made Anderson angry in the past. Didn't help them. If you really think Chael has some sort of mental edge and you have faith in him, I'm open to a friendly wager here. I'll take Anderson. What kind of odds are we talking about?
That being said, i think i have to disagree with Hooter on this one. I think if we get Silva at -180 it will be a hell of a gift, and i will be all over it. -300 is heavy, but i still think the advantage lays with money on Silva even at that high price. Yes, their last fight was very competitive, but a motivated Silva is a whole other story, and my guess is that he is motivated for this one. After this one, i am not as sure because i don't know if Bisping or Lombard can excite Silva, but i think Silva has had more than enough time to prepare for this one. as long as neither have any hidden injuries, i am pretty sure i will be on Silva even at the high price
modogg
Footballguy
i don't know, call me crazy, but Fedor beating an already defeated Pedro Rizzo certainly doesn't have me convinced. Considering Big Foot and Dan Henderson had their way with Fedor, i have no doubt that Lesnar would beat him. Not positive i would lay heavy money either way, but props to M-1 if they make this fight happen, and poor Dana if they do
modogg
Footballguy
I forget who was on a recent card that people in the thread were talking about having so much trouble betting on them and against them, and Melvin definitely fits that bill too. The guy has a lot of physical gifts, but is such a goof mentally that he is hard to trust. I think he bounces back from his bad loss to Lauzon, and Greg Jackson seems to be able to tame Melvin a bit. I just hate betting on him, and betting against him.
SacramentoBob
Footballguy
Isn't he with the Blackzilians now?
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
As little as think of Fedor, I think he takes out Lesnar pretty easily. Touch his chin, which Fedor would do, and its over.
hooter311
Footballguy
I'll take TRT over motivation any day. Anderson's training camp has been filled with rumors of injury once again. Still think he should be favored, but the legend has to end some time.I do think that Silva owes a ton to Chael for the promoting he does. last time i checked Silva's contract is tied into PPV numbers, and Chael's is not. Even though Chael has personally insulted Anderson a few times, he has also put a lot of cash in his pocket for their last PPV, and for this upcoming one. Before Chael was around, we were looking at Silva-Maia, and Silva-Leittes. There are other competitors in the MW division that will make for some interesting fights, but Chael really did help bring the MW division out of the dark ages and bring interest to Silva's fights again.
Sonnen isn't unique. A number of opponents have made Anderson angry in the past. Didn't help them. If you really think Chael has some sort of mental edge and you have faith in him, I'm open to a friendly wager here. I'll take Anderson. What kind of odds are we talking about?
That being said, i think i have to disagree with Hooter on this one. I think if we get Silva at -180 it will be a hell of a gift, and i will be all over it. -300 is heavy, but i still think the advantage lays with money on Silva even at that high price. Yes, their last fight was very competitive, but a motivated Silva is a whole other story, and my guess is that he is motivated for this one. After this one, i am not as sure because i don't know if Bisping or Lombard can excite Silva, but i think Silva has had more than enough time to prepare for this one. as long as neither have any hidden injuries, i am pretty sure i will be on Silva even at the high price
kutta
Footballguy
Agreed. Lesnar can't take a hit. He was extremely lucky against Carwin, and Cain and Overeem totally dominated him. The only really named guys that he beat are Mir and Couture, and they are both grapplers and not great strikers. Lesnar against a well-trained striker like Fedor would get knocked out in the 1st round.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Ronda Rousey 
posed nekkid
for ESPN.
posed nekkid
for ESPN.
modogg
Footballguy
Good article on Chael-Silva, too long to probably post the whole thing here so i'll give the link:
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/7/1/3124601/ufc-148-judo-chop-anderson-silva-chael-sonnen-weaknesses
here is what the author concludes:
Conclusions
The reason that Chael Sonnen gave Silva a nightmare is that Sonnen has one of the best shots in the division, is a southpaw, and was willing to throw his left hand freely. Fear to commit against Silva has been what has cost grapplers the match in the past, but in truth he has never (at least in the UFC) knocked out a grappler. His knockouts come against men who offer him no threat on the ground or of the takedown, because he can open up his entire game and fight on the counter. Against strong takedown artists (or in Maia's case, men who are happy to play guard), Silva is deprived of his remarkable boxing game, because his stance is forced to square up. Constant switching between the takedown and punches seems to be the key to catching Anderson squared up and with his hands down instead of in the shoulder roll position in which excels. Landing punches on Silva while he is expecting the takedown has been proven to take him out of his cautious mindset, and this in turn opened up takedowns for Chael Sonnen.
Anderson Silva may win or lose at UFC 148, either way he has been the greatest UFC champion to date. What is important to remember, however is that Silva is just a man, who relies on elite level tactics. His stance and attitude are different against strong grapplers than they are against strikers, he is not capable of pulling off the same elite striking showcases that he did against Forrest Griffin if there is the threat of the takedown. The key to defeating the incredible Anderson Silva, it seems, may not be in his submission defense, or in the emergence of some ungodly striking prodigy who hasn't been born yet, but in grapplers who are willing to get in his face and exploit the caution he takes over defending takedowns. Whether that is the case or not will ultimately be confirmed by how he and Sonnen contest their rematch at UFC 148.
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/7/1/3124601/ufc-148-judo-chop-anderson-silva-chael-sonnen-weaknesses
here is what the author concludes:
Conclusions
The reason that Chael Sonnen gave Silva a nightmare is that Sonnen has one of the best shots in the division, is a southpaw, and was willing to throw his left hand freely. Fear to commit against Silva has been what has cost grapplers the match in the past, but in truth he has never (at least in the UFC) knocked out a grappler. His knockouts come against men who offer him no threat on the ground or of the takedown, because he can open up his entire game and fight on the counter. Against strong takedown artists (or in Maia's case, men who are happy to play guard), Silva is deprived of his remarkable boxing game, because his stance is forced to square up. Constant switching between the takedown and punches seems to be the key to catching Anderson squared up and with his hands down instead of in the shoulder roll position in which excels. Landing punches on Silva while he is expecting the takedown has been proven to take him out of his cautious mindset, and this in turn opened up takedowns for Chael Sonnen.
Anderson Silva may win or lose at UFC 148, either way he has been the greatest UFC champion to date. What is important to remember, however is that Silva is just a man, who relies on elite level tactics. His stance and attitude are different against strong grapplers than they are against strikers, he is not capable of pulling off the same elite striking showcases that he did against Forrest Griffin if there is the threat of the takedown. The key to defeating the incredible Anderson Silva, it seems, may not be in his submission defense, or in the emergence of some ungodly striking prodigy who hasn't been born yet, but in grapplers who are willing to get in his face and exploit the caution he takes over defending takedowns. Whether that is the case or not will ultimately be confirmed by how he and Sonnen contest their rematch at UFC 148.
Sebowski
Footballguy
Also hope neither of them are fighting with an injury and that Sonnen passes his drug test this time.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
I know probably 90% of this noise is just WWF hype. I don't give a ####. I'm psyched for this fight. 
Pick
Footballguy
Is the consensus that Sonnen is gonna get worked?
I think he has a chance because he makes Silva uncomfortable with a combination of aggressive striking (maybe not knockout power but enough to bother Silva) and his shots.
I think he wins and if he's clean it sticks.
What say ye?
I think he has a chance because he makes Silva uncomfortable with a combination of aggressive striking (maybe not knockout power but enough to bother Silva) and his shots.
I think he wins and if he's clean it sticks.
What say ye?
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Seems like Sonnen getting worked is the popular thought ever since Anderson went off. From a betting perspective, I'm more torn than most I think. If you take away the names and just look at the odds and their last matchup versus each other, you might be foolish not to have a little coin on Sonnen and just enjoy the fight. Put the names back into the equation and you have to immediately think you could get Silva in the 200s in a match he seems to desperately want. Not saying Sonnen isn't fired up or focused, because he is...maybe that factor is a push.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
I don't want any of you people on the Sonnen WARWAGON with Pick and I after Chael P is the new middleweight champ!
wheat <--------- -------------> chaff
hooter311
Footballguy
Hey now, I announced my Sonnen affiliation a while ago.
hooter311
Footballguy
I need to rewatch a few fights, but I think I like Kim here as the small favorite. His judo should dominate how this fight goes to the ground and keep him out of precarious positions. Maia has all but abandoned his top level BJJ for boxing pretty much since the last round of his fight with Silva. I like this fight to go the distance for sure and I just don't see how Kim doesn't control the action. Creative, high powered, striking is what it takes to beat Kim and Maia just doesn't have it. The first time cutting to 170 could slow Maia down as well late in the fight.
hooter311
Footballguy
Anderson's primary strength is counter striking. Your best chance on the feet is to blanket him, which is what Chael does best and the reason why he pounded on him so bad in the first fight. Anderson's take down defense relies on stance and movement, rather than sprawl. Opponent's hesitation is why Anderson has ruled the Octagon for as long as he has, Chael seems to have an unique understanding of the psychology of Anderson Silva.
modogg
Footballguy
no concern in here about the way Bisping handled Sonnen? i know match-ups hold a lot of weight, and the match-up is better than others for the underdog here, but i think people are being blinded by Silva's last fight. The guy has dominated every other fight, except this last one. He handled Hendo's wrestling ok, i just have to think Chael has to have a near perfect fight to win.And i have 0 concern about him having any drug testing issues. This is the same guy who the Nevada athletic commission has asked to help their committee with their testing
I like Sonnen too, but kind of silly to have an influential governing body ask the same guy who lost his real estate license and has not been a model athlete is crazy. but this probably says more about the athletic commissions then ChaelETA: also have to figure Chael fought close to the best fight he could, and Anderson fought one of his worst. Law of averages says Silva wins
Last edited by a moderator:
modogg
Footballguy
that is the million dollar question, and we'll find out Saturday. the thing with Silva has always been his motivation. we have seen it tons of times, and i think Silva really under-estimated Sonnen for their first fight. Hell, Travis Luter had some offense against Silva too. I think Silva gets lazy in the octagon because he has dominated so much in the past, and i don't think he'll under-estimate Sonnen again this time.Big question for me is which way will the line for the fight move? i think the hype for this fight will mean more people will bet on it, and i wonder if the money will come in on Silva or Sonnen
modogg
Footballguy
Well, certainly looks Anderson is motivated for the fight, but it also looks like Chael is in Anderson's head:http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/7/3/3135455/ufc-148-press-conference-silva-sonnen-staredown
Pick
Footballguy
I don't disagree I just think it's lame not to give Chael some credit for Silva having a bad fight in that first fight. Not saying that's you but it's been posted here a few times.
Sebowski
Footballguy
His camp said he fought with a broken rib.
hooter311
Footballguy
From watching that "Like Water" documentary, my opinion is that Chael broke that rib during the fight. There was no indication in his camp on that film of a rib injury before the fight.
Pick
Footballguy
Actually, I thought he acted somewhat injured in a few scenes. He poked himself in the ribs a few times and talked about his training partner being to strong for him and that he hurt him. But it was all very vague. I don't think he was hurt going into the fight anymore than the normal bumps and bruises.
hooter311
Footballguy
That was Japan but China may be....worse?ETA: At least its in Maucau and not mainland. It has a chance to be crazy there.
Last edited by a moderator:
hooter311
Footballguy
He was complaining about should issues and possibly canceling the fight as recently as two weeks ago.
Pick
Footballguy
Legit?
modogg
Footballguy
it was either his shoulder or knee. It is one of the big concerns i have about putting money on Silva, and i will likely wait until closer to the fight to put money on him, hoping that the Chael money brings the line down
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Silva by 1st round KO. Unless he decides to really toy with Sonnen. Then 2nd round TKO.
hooter311
Footballguy
It was the knee, my bad.http://mmafrenzy.com/28740/anderson-silva-refutes-knee-injury-report/Speculation was that the rumor was spread by his camp for an excuse in case of a loss.
Pick
Footballguy
I think Chael wins but it will go as you say if he loses. I don't think Silva messes around either and lets it go into the second. The longer this goes, the more likely Sonnen is to win. Either Silva wins with stoppage in first round (TKO probably). Or after the first round it's Sonnen by majority decision and that's what I'm going with.What are the prop bets on that? Silva in first (TKO). Sonnen by majority decision.
Pick
Footballguy
Those camps are tight and info like that doesn't get out unless it's meant to.
Pick
Footballguy
Sorry for spamming but thoughts on where the fighters go win or lose?
If Silva wins or loses I don't see much changing for him. He won't retire cuz he'll look like Chael's #####. He'll angle for another shot at Chael if he loses.
If Chael wins I wonder if he gives Silva another shot. If Chael loses I don't think he really leaves.
I think after the fight either way these guys make nice.
If Silva wins or loses I don't see much changing for him. He won't retire cuz he'll look like Chael's #####. He'll angle for another shot at Chael if he loses.
If Chael wins I wonder if he gives Silva another shot. If Chael loses I don't think he really leaves.
I think after the fight either way these guys make nice.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Definitely a rematch if Silva losses. If Sonnen loses, hopefully he shuts the #### up.
Pick
Footballguy
But if Silva loses it's gonna be by majority decision (says me). And that means two Silva/Sonnen fights where Silva got dominated. Still a rematch?
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Definitely a rematch. Maybe not if it was someone other than the most dominant champ ever. I don't see how you don't give it to Silva. And of course, the UFC would make boatloads off of it.