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UFC wagering: breaking news - judging is so terrible it got me to return here to update this thread title


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Just now, modogg said:

thing is UFC hired an outside company that basically is shooting themselves in the foot. it was funny when the program first started and guys got popped every card. UFC was just shaking their head and losing all kinds of fights and money 

Yep, they are making sure that don't lose it this time.  Jones knows Alex is a hard out.  His words, that fight was hell.  He won the last 2 rounds.

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Just now, IC FBGCav said:

I listen to Rogan before you, that guy can't explain anything.  He has "theories"

you sure? Novitsky knows what he is talking about: 

https://www.mmamania.com/2018/12/27/18158125/video-joe-rogan-still-has-so-many-jon-jones-questions-asks-ufcs-drug-expert-all-of-them

talking now about a female skier who tested positive from using lip balm (47:00). That would suck. Also talked about how another athlete tested positive and got out of it from saying they kissed someone who just did a line of coke. interesting stuff

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Just now, modogg said:

you sure? Novitsky knows what he is talking about: 

https://www.mmamania.com/2018/12/27/18158125/video-joe-rogan-still-has-so-many-jon-jones-questions-asks-ufcs-drug-expert-all-of-them

talking now about a female skier who tested positive from using lip balm (47:00). That would suck. Also talked about how another athlete tested positive and got out of it from saying they kissed someone who just did a line of coke. interesting stuff

No it's not, stop.  

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7 hours ago, IC FBGCav said:

If you can say Jones is the only UFC fight that ever did coke in the last 2 years, then, you got me.

McGregor probably only does 100% Columbian cocaine, not the stepped on turnibol crap Jon Jones uses.  I'm about to listen to the podcasts so let's see if it changes my mind.  Pre-podcast I'm kind of in the same boat as you.  This guy has a history, heck his family has a history.  If this turnibol is in everything from lip balm, cocaine, city water, etc. we should have heard of it showing up for more fighters besides just JJ and Mir.

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That was a cringe worthy press conference yesterday.  Check reddit for some of the low lights.   I liked the poor guy who asked if the UFC was going to help the fighters with the increased income tax in California and Dana's response was that no one was going to help him with his own tax issues.

I just don't understand fighters.  They need a union and some sort of CBA to help them through issues like this and they just won't form one.

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49 minutes ago, NewlyRetired said:

I just don't understand fighters.  They need a union and some sort of CBA to help them through issues like this and they just won't form one.

Yes, it's really dumb. The only reason I can think of for them not forming an association would be it may cost too much to join, especially during the early stages of it's creation. The prelim fighters getting paid $10K will want to keep as much of their check as possible. They don't know if they'll have a 5-10 year career in the sport and don't want to pay into a group that they may not be a part of in 18 months.

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1 hour ago, EYLive said:
2 hours ago, NewlyRetired said:

I just don't understand fighters.  They need a union and some sort of CBA to help them through issues like this and they just won't form one.

Yes, it's really dumb.

Yar, IDK why people who get punched in the face for a living don't act in their own self interests better.

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1 hour ago, Clayton Gray said:

The fighters making huge money don't need a union.

The fighters not making huge money need to accept every fight they get offered. If they were to join a union, they'd be far less likely to get offered a fight.

I am unsure how the individual sports work for unions.  We know that all the team sports (NHL, MLS, NBA, NFL, and MLB) have unions where every player is involved whether you make $20 million a year or $100k a year.

But do any of the individual sports (tennis, golf, or auto racing) have unions like the team sports?

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Unionization is such a long shot it's not really worth discussing right now. UFC pays these low level fighters a lot compared to every other organization. It's just the facts... Go look at the payouts for Bellator undercard, it's gross. 

Now for gambling tomorrow, what do we like?

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54 minutes ago, GOB said:

Now for gambling tomorrow, what do we like?

I didn't think the first Jones/Gustafsson fight was as close as people thought then, so getting Jones at -300 is a steal. Sure, Jones' layoff is worrisome, but it's not like Gustafsson has been active either (only one more fight than Jones since their first meeting and Jones has fought more recently).

I like Amanda Nunes, but Cris Cyborg in the -250 range seems way too good to pass up.

If you can get Walt Harris under -175, that seems like great value against Andre Arlovski.

I'd love to take Uriah Hall at almost even money against a Contender Series fighter, but I just don't trust him.

Chad Mendes is a big step up for Volkanovski. I'll take Mendes at -150.

Michael Chiesa's best win is Beneil Dariush. I know Carlos Condit seems like he can't win anymore, but I'll take him as a +140 dog.

Ryan Hall is the biggest favorite on the card around -500, but unless he injures himself, he should beat B.J. Penn. I'll pass, though.

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19 hours ago, modogg said:

Mir. i think there was another one or 2. Still listening to the podcast

As i understand it  both Mir and Tom Lawlor were suspended from similarly minuscule amounts from piss tests.  Say what you will about maybe it was from 18 months ago and trace amounts can ebb and flow (I SERIOUSLY have my doubts there, but I ain't no pee-lookin' scientist either) ... regardless: handle similar situations similarly.  Giving one of the sports biggest cheaters differential treatment is Mickeymouse BS.

I know money talks...but it isnt a good look and we dont have to like it.  Vote with your wallet...dont buy this event.   

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On 12/25/2018 at 10:37 PM, EYLive said:

I understand the sentiment, but I would rather watch fighters compete as clean as possible. I don't care how talented an athlete is, multiple PED violations should result in a lifetime ban.

As we've seen with steroid era baseball, scrubs will be scrubs even on the juice.  Cream rises to the top, mediocrity remains mediocre versus the field (of EVERYONE getting juiced).

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20 hours ago, Clayton Gray said:

I didn't think the first Jones/Gustafsson fight was as close as people thought then, so getting Jones at -300 is a steal. Sure, Jones' layoff is worrisome, but it's not like Gustafsson has been active either (only one more fight than Jones since their first meeting and Jones has fought more recently).

I like Amanda Nunes, but Cris Cyborg in the -250 range seems way too good to pass up.

If you can get Walt Harris under -175, that seems like great value against Andre Arlovski.

I'd love to take Uriah Hall at almost even money against a Contender Series fighter, but I just don't trust him.

Chad Mendes is a big step up for Volkanovski. I'll take Mendes at -150.

Michael Chiesa's best win is Beneil Dariush. I know Carlos Condit seems like he can't win anymore, but I'll take him as a +140 dog.

Ryan Hall is the biggest favorite on the card around -500, but unless he injures himself, he should beat B.J. Penn. I'll pass, though.

Kelleher +140 - Montell Jackson just lot to Ricky Simon, who I would categorize as a poor man's Kelleher. Unless Jackson knocks him out, I dont see him winning. 

Wood -125- Ewell has no wrestling defense, and Wood is a great counter puncher. Ewell is a wild man, and could very well catch him, but I will take the better all around fighter.

Siyar Bahadurzada/Millender U2.5- I like both of these guys, but something tells me Siyar is going to make this a man's war. 2.5 rounds too much to pass up.

Uriah Hall +110- like Clayton, I have a hard time trusting Hall, but at some point you have to pull the trigger on value. I think it is there.

Cat Zingano -142- Megan Anderson got big brothered against Holly Holm. That is all i am saying

Chiesa/Condit U2.5- I honestly think Condit is here to collect a check. With that being said, Chiesa is moving up and I am not laying -160 on him. 

Jones/Gustafsson o4.5- Pretty positive this is going to decision where Jones wins 49-46, maybe 50-45. 

 

looks a lot like a 4-3 night. GL boys. Probably add more but those are already in.

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5 hours ago, GOB said:

Kelleher +140 - Montell Jackson just lot to Ricky Simon, who I would categorize as a poor man's Kelleher. Unless Jackson knocks him out, I dont see him winning. 

Wood -125- Ewell has no wrestling defense, and Wood is a great counter puncher. Ewell is a wild man, and could very well catch him, but I will take the better all around fighter.

Siyar Bahadurzada/Millender U2.5- I like both of these guys, but something tells me Siyar is going to make this a man's war. 2.5 rounds too much to pass up.

Uriah Hall +110- like Clayton, I have a hard time trusting Hall, but at some point you have to pull the trigger on value. I think it is there.

Cat Zingano -142- Megan Anderson got big brothered against Holly Holm. That is all i am saying

Chiesa/Condit U2.5- I honestly think Condit is here to collect a check. With that being said, Chiesa is moving up and I am not laying -160 on him. 

Jones/Gustafsson o4.5- Pretty positive this is going to decision where Jones wins 49-46, maybe 50-45. 

 

looks a lot like a 4-3 night. GL boys. Probably add more but those are already in.

More like 0-7. Oof

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13 minutes ago, Bobcat10 said:

He was half slipping too when he made the move.  That's maybe more on BJ though.

Penn turned the wrong way to get out of the heel hook. He actually put more torque on his knee. Looked super tight though, so turning the right way probably wouldn't have helped much.

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Thinking about the recent developments in the Cormier / JJ saga.  

-JJ says he "can slap DC's wife's butt and he couldn't do anything" way to go really low there JJ.  It's not like your in a situation where you should be trying to rehabilitate your brand or anything.  Just turn full heel already and quit pretending. 🙄

-DC gives up the belt.  He decided to get in front of this situation before it's in the spotlight after a JJ win.  This testing situation gave DC an easy out imo. I think he was going to retire either way.  He knows he can't beat JJ.  At the end of the last fight he was a defeated and broken man.  I don't think he wants to risk going out like that and not should he.  JJ recently saying he wouldn't want to do it at HW is likely him throwing stinky bait out there.  JJ wants DC again at either weight class.

The psychology of this is fascinating to me.

Edited by Punxsutawney Phil
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5 minutes ago, Punxsutawney Phil said:

They use a different cage size?  I vaguely remember hearing about this.  Care to explain?

They use one that is 30' and 25' across. 

Smaller cage leads to more action. My addiction to betting unders is satisfied with the science behind it.

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35 minutes ago, modogg said:

Mo Dogg = sharp? :hifive:. not that heavy, but i think Nunes is one who has the best chance to beat her

I'm not going to debate that about Nunes, I think it's true.  Actually wish I wasn't so heavy on Cyborg on DK (but, I do have a good lineup going with Nunes right now).

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  • AhrnCityPahnder changed the title to UFC wagering: GSP -- I waz eeempressed by your performances. Godspeed!

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