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Would you ever take WR #1 (1 Viewer)

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pmcdade

Footballguy
Hypothetical... You pull #1 draft slot in a serpentine redraft league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 1PK.

You have a crystal ball that lets you know that Randy Moss will have 105 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 TD's making him solidly the #1 receiver this year.

You have no other precognitive information - just the above guarantee. You also know magically that Moss won't be there when you pick again.

Do you take Moss #1 overall?

 
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pmcdade said:
Hypothetical... You pull #1 draft slot in a serpentine redraft league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 1PK.You have a crystal ball that lets you know that Randy Moss will have 105 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 TD's making him solidly the #1 receiver this year.You have no other precognitive information - just the above guarantee. You also know magically that Moss won't be there when you pick again.Do you take Moss #1 overall?
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Probably not. If you told me he would put up 1800 yards and 20 TDs, though, I definitely would.
 
I might consider it in my league(PPR), but ultimately I would have to go with Tomlinson there. Granted if I had a crystal ball that told me Randy Moss was going to catch 200 passes for 2,100 yards and 25 TD's then I would take him, but I'm assuming my crystal ball is rooted in reality.

 
pmcdade said:
Hypothetical... You pull #1 draft slot in a serpentine redraft league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 1PK.You have a crystal ball that lets you know that Randy Moss will have 105 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 TD's making him solidly the #1 receiver this year.You have no other precognitive information - just the above guarantee. You also know magically that Moss won't be there when you pick again.Do you take Moss #1 overall?
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Can I trade down?If not, that isn't quite enough to take above LT. I would take Moss #3 though.
 
If ever a question showed the hype/overvalued machine is in full warp drive on a player this one is it....

Moss is being drafted much too early for my tastes considering the other WR's around him & his past history of poor work ethic. Imagine if he has one decent preseason game....

Those #'s aren't close to being good enough to warrant a #1 overall pick of a WR IMO....Are the top 20 RB's all going to finish with identical #'s??? Are Gates & Manning (or your #1 QB) going to beat those at their position by less than what Moss did in the scenario laid out??

Now if your "crystal ball" could lay out the whole seasons' stats for us than you'd be on to something....

 
pmcdade said:
Hypothetical... You pull #1 draft slot in a serpentine redraft league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 1PK.You have a crystal ball that lets you know that Randy Moss will have 105 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 TD's making him solidly the #1 receiver this year.You have no other precognitive information - just the above guarantee. You also know magically that Moss won't be there when you pick again.Do you take Moss #1 overall?
Click to expand...
never.too easy for a WR to go 5-51 one week, and 10-166-3 the next. they are too up and down to be a top pick like that..you want consistency at #1 overall. LT2 is Mr Consistency...do you take him at #1, or a WR who will have ups and downs? you take a RB or a QB #1 overall, never a WR...too many factors: weather, opponent's defensive backfield and D-line and how many sacks they produce, if the team is way out in front, they will not pass, they will run the clock out, etc..all of these factors come in to play with a WR, and what if he comes up against a guy like Champ Bailey or any NE DB? its easier for LT2 to get his pts against tough defenses, than it is for a WR to do so. and a guy like Manning will always score, consistently..I don't think you ever take a WR #1 overall..
 
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pmcdade said:
Hypothetical... You pull #1 draft slot in a serpentine redraft league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 1PK.You have a crystal ball that lets you know that Randy Moss will have 105 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 TD's making him solidly the #1 receiver this year.You have no other precognitive information - just the above guarantee. You also know magically that Moss won't be there when you pick again.Do you take Moss #1 overall?
Click to expand...
in a PPR league, sure you do.his productioin is guaranteed. anyone else you take has the chance of busting or gettng injured.there will be backs with better numbers in 2007 than Moss but there is no way to tell with your defective magic 8 ball who it will be.
 
pmcdade said:
wannabee said:
Jerry Rice had a season I would love for any pick in a PPR league
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I'm guessing that would be '95 with 1848 yds and 15 TD's?Those numbers would make it a no-brainer IMHO - trying for something more realistic.
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It's important to keep things realistic when discussing the information a crystal ball provides. :lmao: Draft LT, then trade for Moss. Maybe you can have both on your team. If you have to package LT & a WR2-3 for his RB1 & Moss, you are still looking sweet because you know you are getting 105 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 TD's from Moss guaranteed.

 
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pmcdade said:
Hypothetical... You pull #1 draft slot in a serpentine redraft league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 1PK.You have a crystal ball that lets you know that Randy Moss will have 105 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 TD's making him solidly the #1 receiver this year.You have no other precognitive information - just the above guarantee. You also know magically that Moss won't be there when you pick again.Do you take Moss #1 overall?
Click to expand...
no.at 1400 yards and 14 td, that only equates to 224 points and guys like reggie wayne ,or harrison should be there and they would be close to 200 points. that is only 30-40 points more than other players of the same position. where the drop from tomlinson to pick #24 in RB is a heck of a lot more then 30-40 points. more like 150-200 points. so if you went rb WR or WR RB, you would have over 100 less points for the year by taking moss first.
 
cowpie said:
pmcdade said:
Hypothetical... You pull #1 draft slot in a serpentine redraft league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 1PK.You have a crystal ball that lets you know that Randy Moss will have 105 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 TD's making him solidly the #1 receiver this year.You have no other precognitive information - just the above guarantee. You also know magically that Moss won't be there when you pick again.Do you take Moss #1 overall?
Click to expand...
no.at 1400 yards and 14 td, that only equates to 224 points and guys like reggie wayne ,or harrison should be there and they would be close to 200 points. that is only 30-40 points more than other players of the same position. where the drop from tomlinson to pick #24 in RB is a heck of a lot more then 30-40 points. more like 150-200 points. so if you went rb WR or WR RB, you would have over 100 less points for the year by taking moss first.
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or trade your #2 and #3 pick to say the #7th over all for your #2 and #3 pick. If i was 7th or 8th, i would be pretty tempted to do so. if you had to, you could throw inyour #5 for their #5 pick too. are you thinking that is the year steve smith is gonna have. and just didn't want to bring it up. because there is no way moss would not come back to you this year, however, steve smith seems to maybe fit that mold and projectdion you are talking. I really like him and think he is the only one that has the potential for those numbers. personally i am trying to get him on my team, but since i don't have a crystal ball, i am just gonna take wayne or harrison instead. however if i pick in the lower half of the draft, then i would take s smith as my #2 pick almost no matter what.
 
Obie Wan said:
pmcdade said:
Hypothetical... You pull #1 draft slot in a serpentine redraft league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 1PK.You have a crystal ball that lets you know that Randy Moss will have 105 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 TD's making him solidly the #1 receiver this year.You have no other precognitive information - just the above guarantee. You also know magically that Moss won't be there when you pick again.Do you take Moss #1 overall?
Click to expand...
in a PPR league, sure you do.his productioin is guaranteed. anyone else you take has the chance of busting or gettng injured.there will be backs with better numbers in 2007 than Moss but there is no way to tell with your defective magic 8 ball who it will be.
Click to expand...
 
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I don't know about a receiver... Maybe a Quarterback if my chrystal ball was working (I took Peyton in 2004 with my first pick which won me the league).

I don't know if I could ever take a WR first though... Not even '95 Rice.

 
cowpie said:
pmcdade said:
Hypothetical... You pull #1 draft slot in a serpentine redraft league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 1PK.You have a crystal ball that lets you know that Randy Moss will have 105 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 TD's making him solidly the #1 receiver this year.You have no other precognitive information - just the above guarantee. You also know magically that Moss won't be there when you pick again.Do you take Moss #1 overall?
Click to expand...
no.at 1400 yards and 14 td, that only equates to 224 points and guys like reggie wayne ,or harrison should be there and they would be close to 200 points. that is only 30-40 points more than other players of the same position. where the drop from tomlinson to pick #24 in RB is a heck of a lot more then 30-40 points. more like 150-200 points. so if you went rb WR or WR RB, you would have over 100 less points for the year by taking moss first.
Click to expand...
You're overlooking the fact that none of those guys are guaranteed to get even a single point. That's the only thing that makes this situation intriguing.
 
H.K. said:
pmcdade said:
wannabee said:
Jerry Rice had a season I would love for any pick in a PPR league
Click to expand...
I'm guessing that would be '95 with 1848 yds and 15 TD's?Those numbers would make it a no-brainer IMHO - trying for something more realistic.
Click to expand...
It's important to keep things realistic when discussing the information a crystal ball provides. ;) Draft LT, then trade for Moss. Maybe you can have both on your team. If you have to package LT & a WR2-3 for his RB1 & Moss, you are still looking sweet because you know you are getting 105 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 TD's from Moss guaranteed.
Click to expand...
This is the correct answer.
 
Assuming trading for him is not possible...yeah, I'd select Moss (or any other player that is GUARANTEED to get my team 1,400 and 14 TD's) @ 1.01

After the other owners stopped laughing at me...I'd start making bets with them. :) <--- straight cash homie

 
draft LT and pick moss on the turn cause he will still be there

if he isn't, offer LT to them for Moss and their very next pick

 
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