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Maven, what are your projections for Henry in '07? 30 carries is ridiculous as it would equate to 480 for the season, 25 would = 400. I don't expect either but I do see him carrying the ball around 300 times (barring injury, as the original post states to do.) 250 carries will be pretty close to 60% in Denver this year. Do you really think Henry will get south of 250? That would put him at 15 or less a game. Just wondering why you're thinking he won't be the bellcow.
488, 542, 534, 543. That's Denver's rushing attempts for the last 4 seasons. The average is 527, and 60% of 527 would be 316. If you remove QB scrambles you're probably looking at at least 480 non-QB rushing attempts, in which case 60% would be 288. Either way, Henry's likely going to have to compile roughly 300+ carries (about 19 a game) in order to hit the 60% mark.
Denver RB's carried the ball 426 times last year. 60% of that would be 255 carries. I have Travis down for 318, so my projections match my vote of "yes."RB's - 426 carries
I can't see Henry finishing #3. His ceiling IMO is #4, and a realistic slot is #6. But with thte turnover in the top-10, he's pretty much guaranteed to finish in the top-10. I think the same could be said about Gore, Addai, LT, SJax, and FWP. Those are your safe picks, but I would have all of them outside of FWP ranked ahead of Henry.If you really want him, you'd be best off trading down 2 or 3 spots with the guy who wants Addai, Gore, Bush, Westbrook - and hope Henry slides, and if not take FWP.As an aside... Henry is pretty injury prone.
Explain the bolded statement please. I know where he broke his leg one season. And I know he missed one game because of torn rib cartilage. Unless those 2 make him injury prone, is there something I'm missing? When else has he been hurt his entire career?
Watching any football before 2005 down? Shanahan is NOT a RBBC by design coach at all. Shanahan, when he has a decent guy capable of handling the workload, will feed his top RB 20+ carries/game.did i miss something along the way or did Mike "RBBC" Shanahan retire or get fired? Isn't Mike Bell, who averaged over 4 YPC and scored 8 td's still in the mix?
He's only played one complete season his entire career. I lilved in Buffalo back when he played for them, and he was injured, whether minor or not, every season - heck, almost every game he'd get dinged.
Actually, you'd be surprised, but all the way back to 2002, no RB in the DEN system has seen even 70% of the carries. Much of that, was due to injury and bad performance perhpas, but ti's still true.
You're not trying to say Portis was in a RBBC those years he was there are you?Actually, you'd be surprised, but all the way back to 2002, no RB in the DEN system has seen even 70% of the carries. Much of that, was due to injury and bad performance perhpas, but ti's still true.Watching any football before 2005 down? Shanahan is NOT a RBBC by design coach at all. Shanahan, when he has a decent guy capable of handling the workload, will feed his top RB 20+ carries/game.did i miss something along the way or did Mike "RBBC" Shanahan retire or get fired? Isn't Mike Bell, who averaged over 4 YPC and scored 8 td's still in the mix?
He never received more than 68% of the carries.However, the missed quite a few games, and was worked in slowly as a rookie.It does go to show that Shanny uses all fo his RBs.You're not trying to say Portis was in a RBBC those years he was there are you?Actually, you'd be surprised, but all the way back to 2002, no RB in the DEN system has seen even 70% of the carries. Much of that, was due to injury and bad performance perhpas, but ti's still true.Watching any football before 2005 down? Shanahan is NOT a RBBC by design coach at all. Shanahan, when he has a decent guy capable of handling the workload, will feed his top RB 20+ carries/game.did i miss something along the way or did Mike "RBBC" Shanahan retire or get fired? Isn't Mike Bell, who averaged over 4 YPC and scored 8 td's still in the mix?
this is not accurate. Looking at the last non/RBBC period in Denver (2002-2004), the leading carrier got an average of 73% of the carries. Switz: you are looking at end of season carries, and neglecting that different players were the "main runner" in different games. Portis took a couple of games to become annointed the starter in 2002. in 2003, Portis missed three games. in 2004, Quentin Griffin started the season as the primary runner, but a costly fumble vs Jax in wk 2 cost him is grip on the starting pos, and by week 5 Droughns took over and never looked back, although Tatum got in the mix over the last 5 games.Here's the data (originally extracted from pro-football-reference.com). The second column is total # of carries by a RB in that game. the third column is the # of carries from the leading rusher (in terms of # of carries). The fourth column is the percentage of carries in that particular game for the leading rusher.He never received more than 68% of the carries.However, the missed quite a few games, and was worked in slowly as a rookie.It does go to show that Shanny uses all fo his RBs.You're not trying to say Portis was in a RBBC those years he was there are you?Actually, you'd be surprised, but all the way back to 2002, no RB in the DEN system has seen even 70% of the carries. Much of that, was due to injury and bad performance perhpas, but ti's still true.Watching any football before 2005 down? Shanahan is NOT a RBBC by design coach at all. Shanahan, when he has a decent guy capable of handling the workload, will feed his top RB 20+ carries/game.did i miss something along the way or did Mike "RBBC" Shanahan retire or get fired? Isn't Mike Bell, who averaged over 4 YPC and scored 8 td's still in the mix?
week total carries max/game percentage of carries by lead carrier2002 1 23 11 48% 2 26 12 46% 3 25 18 72% 4 19 8 42% 5 25 20 80% 6 23 18 78% 7 24 15 63% 8 33 26 79% 9 0 0 10 17 14 82% 11 28 23 82% 12 22 18 82% 13 26 23 88% 14 26 24 92% 15 33 21 64% 16 15 12 80% 17 31 24 77% week total carries max/game percentage of carries by lead carrier2003 1 24 24 100% 2 28 16 57% 3 31 14 45% 4 16 9 56% 5 28 23 82% 6 16 15 94% 7 26 25 96% 8 23 22 96% 9 29 26 90% 10 0 0 11 40 25 63% 12 19 14 74% 13 39 34 87% 14 27 22 81% 15 39 38 97% 16 47 28 60% 17 33 21 64% week total carries max/game percentage of carries by lead carrier2004 1 27 23 85% 2 29 25 86% 3 17 12 71% 4 29 21 72% 5 32 30 94% 6 48 38 79% 7 24 24 100% 8 15 15 100% 9 34 29 85% 10 0 0 11 28 28 100% 12 28 28 100% 13 22 14 64% 14 35 18 51% 15 18 9 50% 16 38 22 58% 17 31 16 52%Actually, I clearly stated that Portis was worked in slowly, and the other season missed part of it.The point is, that while on a per game basis, one back generally shoulders the load, over the course of the season, over the past 5 years, the same back hasn't shouldered the load every game. The workload a DEN RB takes generally leads to injuries - it happened to Davis, Gary, Anderson, Portis, Griffin, Bell, and so on. I'm sure there were a couple that didn't get dinged, but for the most part, every runner in DEN's system has ended up injured. Add in Henry's history of dings - it doesn't look like he's going to shoulder that heavy of a load over the entire season. Just my $0.02this is not accurate. Looking at the last non/RBBC period in Denver (2002-2004), the leading carrier got an average of 73% of the carries. Switz: you are looking at end of season carries, and neglecting that different players were the "main runner" in different games. Portis took a couple of games to become annointed the starter in 2002. in 2003, Portis missed three games. in 2004, Quentin Griffin started the season as the primary runner, but a costly fumble vs Jax in wk 2 cost him is grip on the starting pos, and by week 5 Droughns took over and never looked back, although Tatum got in the mix over the last 5 games.One might argue that 2005-2006 is more significant in that it was more recent, and this was clearly an era of RBBC. I say it was RBBC because of the personnel, not because of desire. Henry was not brought in to share the load.He never received more than 68% of the carries.However, the missed quite a few games, and was worked in slowly as a rookie.It does go to show that Shanny uses all fo his RBs.You're not trying to say Portis was in a RBBC those years he was there are you?Actually, you'd be surprised, but all the way back to 2002, no RB in the DEN system has seen even 70% of the carries. Much of that, was due to injury and bad performance perhpas, but ti's still true.Watching any football before 2005 down? Shanahan is NOT a RBBC by design coach at all. Shanahan, when he has a decent guy capable of handling the workload, will feed his top RB 20+ carries/game.did i miss something along the way or did Mike "RBBC" Shanahan retire or get fired? Isn't Mike Bell, who averaged over 4 YPC and scored 8 td's still in the mix?
The key part of this statement above is boldedBefore his sophomore year, Michael Clayton was a studWatching any football before 2005 down? Shanahan is NOT a RBBC by design coach at all. Shanahan, when he has a decent guy capable of handling the workload, will feed his top RB 20+ carries/game.did i miss something along the way or did Mike "RBBC" Shanahan retire or get fired? Isn't Mike Bell, who averaged over 4 YPC and scored 8 td's still in the mix?
The fact that the RB position has been a revolving door since 1998 is fairly irrelevant to the discussion of THenry being bogged down by RBBC. I get what you are saying, but this thread is about Henry's ability to get 20+carries a game. I think one would have to look at the data and conclude Henry is likely to get 20+ carries in games that he plays.so - there are two questions then. (1) will Henry stay healthy? and if not, (2) what is a high per-game carry guy worth if he poses injury risk? Afterall, FF is played one week at a time, not a sum over the whole season.Actually, I clearly stated that Portis was worked in slowly, and the other season missed part of it.The point is, that while on a per game basis, one back generally shoulders the load, over the course of the season, over the past 5 years, the same back hasn't shouldered the load every game. The workload a DEN RB takes generally leads to injuries - it happened to Davis, Gary, Anderson, Portis, Griffin, Bell, and so on. I'm sure there were a couple that didn't get dinged, but for the most part, every runner in DEN's system has ended up injured. Add in Henry's history of dings - it doesn't look like he's going to shoulder that heavy of a load over the entire season. Just my $0.02this is not accurate. Looking at the last non/RBBC period in Denver (2002-2004), the leading carrier got an average of 73% of the carries. Switz: you are looking at end of season carries, and neglecting that different players were the "main runner" in different games. Portis took a couple of games to become annointed the starter in 2002. in 2003, Portis missed three games. in 2004, Quentin Griffin started the season as the primary runner, but a costly fumble vs Jax in wk 2 cost him is grip on the starting pos, and by week 5 Droughns took over and never looked back, although Tatum got in the mix over the last 5 games.One might argue that 2005-2006 is more significant in that it was more recent, and this was clearly an era of RBBC. I say it was RBBC because of the personnel, not because of desire. Henry was not brought in to share the load.He never received more than 68% of the carries.However, the missed quite a few games, and was worked in slowly as a rookie.It does go to show that Shanny uses all fo his RBs.You're not trying to say Portis was in a RBBC those years he was there are you?Actually, you'd be surprised, but all the way back to 2002, no RB in the DEN system has seen even 70% of the carries. Much of that, was due to injury and bad performance perhpas, but ti's still true.Watching any football before 2005 down? Shanahan is NOT a RBBC by design coach at all. Shanahan, when he has a decent guy capable of handling the workload, will feed his top RB 20+ carries/game.did i miss something along the way or did Mike "RBBC" Shanahan retire or get fired? Isn't Mike Bell, who averaged over 4 YPC and scored 8 td's still in the mix?
I agree 100% - which is why I've stated I project Henry to finish the season in the #4-#6 range of RBs. I also feel if you grab him, you need to trade him week 8 or 9, and try to get another STUD in return, who isn't likely to break down.
Valid points, of course, but the Bells and Mike Anderson are in a different cass, talent-wise, than is Travis Henry. Henry certainly isn't an elite talent, IMO, but he is a very under-rated NFL RB and the best guy to play in Denver since Portis. Every time Henry has been given a decent number of carries, he has been outstanding. If he could produce in Buffalo and Tennessee, he should easily better that production in Denver, whose offense has made fantasy studs out of much lesser RBs (Ron flippin' Dayne averaged 5.1/carry in 2005 there!). In 2005 - 2006, the Bronces had a guy explosive enough to warrant touches but unable to carry a full load in Tatum Bell. The lack of a standout RB led to the split in carries, IMO, as opposed to any philosophical shift by Mike Shanahan. The full set of data is very relevant in this case (Shanahan's entire career in Denver) because the circumstances (no RB to take the full load) dictated his use of his RBs. I think it likely that, with a very good RB like Henry, he'll revert to a one RB approach.Switz' opinion that Henry is likely to get banged up under the workload is a valid concern (although overblown, IMO, as Henry is a tough SOB). The opinion that a healthy Henry will lose carries in a RBBC with Mike Bell or anyone else is less so.The key part of this statement above is boldedBefore his sophomore year, Michael Clayton was a studWatching any football before 2005 down? Shanahan is NOT a RBBC by design coach at all. Shanahan, when he has a decent guy capable of handling the workload, will feed his top RB 20+ carries/game.did i miss something along the way or did Mike "RBBC" Shanahan retire or get fired? Isn't Mike Bell, who averaged over 4 YPC and scored 8 td's still in the mix?
Before Michael Jordan left, the Bulls won championships
Before last year, the Saints were one of the worst teams in the NFL
Before 2005, Denver RBs were studs
You guys can analyze all of the historical data you want, but all that really matters is whats between the ears of Shannahan. Despite Portis, Davis, etc being stud RBs years ago, this is the age of RBBC in Denver and Henry will not be the workhorse 1st-round pick that 99% of these forum members claim him to be. He's a nice 2nd-rounder with some upside, but anyone thinking of taking him in the top 6 or 7 picks is nuts.
This is my only "dislike" about Henry this year.He could likely be gotten later in many drafts, and I see alot on FBG saying they have him at #2-#4. He MAY live up to that, but why not grab another player that has a higher value, and try to get Henry later? Or trade down if you really like him, and get a top-4 RB as well as additional picks??Just not sure if people aren't overpaying based on the DEN RB thing...Took him at 1.04 in Anarchy 4. I think he's due for a very solid year.
Definitely switzThis is my only "dislike" about Henry this year.He could likely be gotten later in many drafts, and I see alot on FBG saying they have him at #2-#4. He MAY live up to that, but why not grab another player that has a higher value, and try to get Henry later? Or trade down if you really like him, and get a top-4 RB as well as additional picks??Just not sure if people aren't overpaying based on the DEN RB thing...
I think he COULD be top 5 this year pretty easily, but I have him outside of that. Ideally I would snag him at the turn 1.12-2.01 or 1.11-2.02 in a 12-teamer.
By the time I have my drafts I don't think he'll be available in round 2. I think he'll end up top 5, I don't want to mess around with the chance that I trade down and don't get him later in the first.
Who has higher value at 1.04?LJ? Holding out. First year starter at QB. Coming off a 400+ carry season.Addai? Didn't produce anywhere near that level as a rookie. Yea, he's on a good team, but the jury's still out on him. Parker? Solid player. Probably not a guy who can win you a league though. Westbrook? Durability issues. Tony Hunt. More of a PPR guy.Gore? Can't argue with him, but he's going top 3 in a lot of drafts.You can make a strong case for Parker or Gore over Henry, but I'd take him over all of the other guys in non-PPR leagues. In a PPR, I might rather have Westbrook. But I'd take Henry over Addai and LJ in any format.This is my only "dislike" about Henry this year.He could likely be gotten later in many drafts, and I see alot on FBG saying they have him at #2-#4. He MAY live up to that, but why not grab another player that has a higher value, and try to get Henry later? Or trade down if you really like him, and get a top-4 RB as well as additional picks??Just not sure if people aren't overpaying based on the DEN RB thing...Took him at 1.04 in Anarchy 4. I think he's due for a very solid year.
Yeah, true - it totally depends on when you draft, and how knowledgable your league mates are... I can still see him falling to pick 8 or 9, as I think most people would draftLT, LJ, SJax, Addai, Gore, Bush, Westbrook ahead of him, maybe FWP as well
Agreed. My thing is, at this point in my FF career I don't want to play games with my 1st round pick. If I've figured out the guys I want in the 1st round, I'm not going to get cute with it, I'm just going to go ahead and draft them. Sweating a couple spots due to ADP isn't worth the chance that I miss out on a guy I have pegged in the 1st round. I'd rather go down calling my shot than try and finagle a couple spots up in the second round (in which round it's more likely that a bargain will drop my way anyway as there've been more preceding picks to be screwed up than in the 1st) and possibly miss out on a player I think is going to be top 5 overall.
Way to completely ignore the question. He's missed time due to not being the starter or being suspended bc of his drug issues, but that's it. I don't care if he's been "dinged" while you lived in Buffalo. He put up some pretty decent #'s while being dinged. So again, aside from the broken leg and the torn rib cartilage (that cost him 1 game), what makes him injury prone? If you don't know or aren't sure or realize it's not true, you can just say so.
Ouch!Oh please - you're like 5000 member numbers below me
Re my FF career: As I'm sure is the case for many others here, I've been playing FF much longer than I've been a member here, actuallyI've been playing longer than there's been a FBGs, Black Eyed Joe's and the yellow board (or whatever it was) - indeed prior to widespread internet access and Windoze 95. I've dated myself enough already, so I'll stop now....
Prior to Barry Sanders entering the NFL.... ouch!Ouch!Oh please - you're like 5000 member numbers below me(j/k around)
Re my FF career: As I'm sure is the case for many others here, I've been playing FF much longer than I've been a member here, actuallyI've been playing longer than there's been a FBGs, Black Eyed Joe's and the yellow board (or whatever it was) - indeed prior to widespread internet access and Windoze 95. I've dated myself enough already, so I'll stop now....
I tihnk I answered that already LOL! Whether he missed time or not, he got dinged alot. Add 4-5 years, and he's not any less liekly to break down, given more touches....Hey I still think he's going to be a top-6 or higher RB. Not sure why you're arguing with me. You can disagree with him being injury prone -
Took him at 1.04 in Anarchy 4. I think he's due for a very solid year.