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Dynamics of 16 team Dyanasty IDP Draft


BigGuy

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I'm in one tomorrow. I would appreciate any insights as to how it is likely to go.

Starters: QB, RB, 2WRs, 2 RB/WR Flex, TE, PK, 3DL, 3LB, 3DB.

It's a PPR with 4 points for QB passing TD and everything else pretty standard on offense. As you can infer, you can start from 1 RB and 4WRs to 3 RBs and 2 WRs (not very likely).

I have the number 1 pick and of course will select Tomlinson.

What are your thoughts on picks 32/33 and 64/65?

Or on anything else?

Thanks

Scott

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In a 16 team dynasty, I wouldn't wait too long on a QB. There are exceptions / personal taste, but on the whole, QBs are worth more in a dynasty than redraft (longer careers, somewhat more consistent) and larger leagues.

With LT, you may as well shoot for this year, so don't shy away from "aging" veterans and don't overvalue youth. Get a good solid core at the front end, and then go after sleepers and prospects. Some will go after the youngest team possible early, and they'll have a nice sounding team, but in the end, you'll be better off taking proven talent.

You don't have to get a RB in rounds 2/3, with PPR and only requiring 1 RB, you're free to take BPA and not sweat the RB.

I wouldn't object to my first 3 picks being LT, Gates, and Palmer.

Pick 65 - you might to take Turner.

Are you mixing rookie and vet? If so, from where you're picking, I wouldn't take rookies until late.

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I'm in one tomorrow. I would appreciate any insights as to how it is likely to go.

Starters: QB, RB, 2WRs, 2 RB/WR Flex, TE, PK, 3DL, 3LB, 3DB.

It's a PPR with 4 points for QB passing TD and everything else pretty standard on offense. As you can infer, you can start from 1 RB and 4WRs to 3 RBs and 2 WRs (not very likely).

I have the number 1 pick and of course will select Tomlinson.

What are your thoughts on picks 32/33 and 64/65?

Or on anything else?

Thanks

Scott

Deep 16 team leagues are tough to handicap.

If you're in a league full of guys who understand IDPs, your scoring system -- specifically the value of IDPs relative to offensive players -- will impact when IDPs start coming off the board. Generally speaking, in 12 team leagues with/without flex players, IDPs usually start coming off the board in the 5th round, with the IDP runs happening around the time the third tier offensive players (second tier QBs, third tier RBs, third-fourth tier WRs) are coming off the board.

Depending on your strategy (win now, second year strat, build with youth), you may want to take the relative advantage early (Taylor, AWilson, DRyans/Bulluck) or wait a little longer and play the offense/defense value game, i.e. build your offensive bench a little and snipe IDP value in the 7th-8th (in 16 teamers) or later.

Here's a link to a thread detailing a 16 team IDP dynasty startup from this February. Long, but some nice strategy discussion in there. Links to rookie and vet drafts in the first post.

Good luck.

ETA: With the first pick, I think your first scripted decision should be what to do at the 7-8 turn. I think you'll likely want to go 2 RB, 2 WR, QB with those first five picks. The 7-8 turn could be IDP stud or some combination of Turner (you may not get him here), RB/WR depth.

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Thanks. That is pretty much what I was thinking. The IDP scoring is pretty significant (I think):

- Solo Tackles - 2 points

- Assisted Tackles - 1 point

- Sacks - 4 points

- Half Sacks - 2 points

- Pass Defensed - 2 points

- Interceptions - 5 points

- Touchdowns - 6 points

- Forced Fumbles - 3 points

- Fumbles Recovered - 3 points

- Safeties - 5 points

As to strategy, I grew up a George Allen Redskins' fan -- "The future is now."

This is my second kind of serious year of Dynasty/Keeper Fantasy Football. About half of the leagues disappeard or had many new teams. I am pleased to see other players sign untested rookies to 8 year contracts.

Thanks.

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Thanks. That is pretty much what I was thinking. The IDP scoring is pretty significant (I think):- Solo Tackles - 2 points - Assisted Tackles - 1 point - Sacks - 4 points - Half Sacks - 2 points - Pass Defensed - 2 points - Interceptions - 5 points - Touchdowns - 6 points - Forced Fumbles - 3 points - Fumbles Recovered - 3 points- Safeties - 5 points As to strategy, I grew up a George Allen Redskins' fan -- "The future is now."This is my second kind of serious year of Dynasty/Keeper Fantasy Football. About half of the leagues disappeard or had many new teams. I am pleased to see other players sign untested rookies to 8 year contracts.Thanks.

Yep, IDP scoring is solid. Tackle heavy, but solid. Good luck, and I agree, if you can roster LT you have to be in win now mode.
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Jene: What do you think about the suggestion above?"I wouldn't object to my first 3 picks being LT, Gates, and Palmer"I'm flexible, but picking a QB and TE that early rubs me the wrong way.Scott

I struggle with this a lot in dynasty leagues.Tomlinson gives you a headstart over any other RB/flex combo, but I don't know that it provides so much relative value that you'll be able to risk sloughing the other four flex positions. I think you could consider one, but not both, and it'll be harder to take Turner as a handcuff if you take both. It is a lot of relative value in a 16 team league, though, and if you think you can find enough value at WR later, it might be worth taking a shot. You could run a 1RB/4WR set and still hold Turner, who should be a very nice RB2. I still think you'll be lucky to get Turner in a flex system with the 64 pick, but I may be wrong. Of the two, I'd probably take Gates given the PPR and the 4/pass TD system, but only if I didn't like the flex position players at the first turn.Run some mocks and if you can't get a Witten/Roethlisberger combo (or whomever you like) at the 6/7 turn, it might be worth banking the advantage and targeting a bunch of WRs in the middle rounds. Sixteen teamers are tough for me. You won't come out of this draft well-rounded so you'll have to decide which positions you'll be willing to be weak.
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"... it might be worth banking the advantage and targeting a bunch of WRs in the middle rounds."

Jene:

I don't understand what you are saying here.

Also, should I try to trade the first pick? [i doubt if I would do that] If so, what would be the minimum I should accept?

Scott

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"... it might be worth banking the advantage and targeting a bunch of WRs in the middle rounds."

Jene:

I don't understand what you are saying here.

Also, should I try to trade the first pick? [i doubt if I would do that] If so, what would be the minimum I should accept?

Scott

If you go Tomlinson/Gates/Palmer, you'll likely miss out on the vast majority of playable backs, which would mean you'd have to generate a lot of playable WRs (probably 4-5) in the 4th-10th rounds or you may lose the advantage you've gained at the other offensive positions. It's an interesting strat, though. I'd mock it out and see what the 5-6 turn might look like.

If you're in win now mode, there's no better building block than Tomlinson. He's untouchable.

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"... it might be worth banking the advantage and targeting a bunch of WRs in the middle rounds."

Jene:

I don't understand what you are saying here.

Also, should I try to trade the first pick? [i doubt if I would do that] If so, what would be the minimum I should accept?

Scott

NO NO and NO to trading LT in a dynasty league.

My dynasty strategy is to have a core of my early players...7-8 rounds or so...that will compete for at least 3 years, if not more. After that, I will mix in some older players. LB is the important position on defense in an IDP where the scoring is even among all positions. I also think QB is important in 16 team leagues, but not necessarily meaning you have to take one early, rather make sure you have at least 2 that are startable for a few years.

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"... it might be worth banking the advantage and targeting a bunch of WRs in the middle rounds."

Jene:

I don't understand what you are saying here.

Also, should I try to trade the first pick? [i doubt if I would do that] If so, what would be the minimum I should accept?

Scott

If you go Tomlinson/Gates/Palmer, you'll likely miss out on the vast majority of playable backs, which would mean you'd have to generate a lot of playable WRs (probably 4-5) in the 4th-10th rounds or you may lose the advantage you've gained at the other offensive positions. It's an interesting strat, though. I'd mock it out and see what the 5-6 turn might look like.

If you're in win now mode, there's no better building block than Tomlinson. He's untouchable.

This is probably true, but who really cares about missing out on the "playable backs"? Don't lock yourself into a certain set of players, but my proposed LT, Palmer, Gates, followed by Reggie Brown and if you didn't want to get Turner (or if he simply goes higher than 64), Jericho Cotchery type WRs is a pretty strong start.

Check last year's points vs. ADP, usually good WRs that score more than RBs will still fall below RBs, even when you have a lineup like yours. I'm in one league that allows 0-2 RBs, the late teen RBs (Thomas Jones, Fred Taylor, etc.) score around 200 pts, as do the late teen / early 20s WRs (Cotchery, Galloway, etc.). Yet, as you'd probably guess, the RBs get taken much earlier.

Just me, but I'd have no problem whatsoever starting with:

LT

Palmer

Gates

Reggie Brown

Turner

Greg Jennings

Dante Stallworth

Ron Curry

Arnaz Battle

(I realize you'll probably want to go with D instead of one of the later WRs)

Check what happens if you take a RB instead of Palmer (say, Caddillac Williams) and then a QB instead of Stallworth (perhaps Ben Roethlisberger). Maybe you'll be better off with Caddy/Ben, but check your projections. I'm just saying I wouldn't be against it.

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Thanks. You've truly opened up my thinking.

I just ran a mock using Draft Dominator. It selects Gates prior to my second pick so I couldn't tell there, but Palmer looks like a pretty good 2/3 pick.

In that mock, Shaun Alexander the top available at 32/33. I assume he would be a good pick if I was trying to win now.

I think Draft Dominator unrealistically selects too many defensive players early.

Scott

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Thanks. You've truly opened up my thinking.

I just ran a mock using Draft Dominator. It selects Gates prior to my second pick so I couldn't tell there, but Palmer looks like a pretty good 2/3 pick.

In that mock, Shaun Alexander the top available at 32/33. I assume he would be a good pick if I was trying to win now.

I think Draft Dominator unrealistically selects too many defensive players early.

Scott

:thumbup: YES, if Alexander falls that far (I really don't see how), you have to take him.
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I'm in one tomorrow. I would appreciate any insights as to how it is likely to go.Starters: QB, RB, 2WRs, 2 RB/WR Flex, TE, PK, 3DL, 3LB, 3DB. It's a PPR with 4 points for QB passing TD and everything else pretty standard on offense. As you can infer, you can start from 1 RB and 4WRs to 3 RBs and 2 WRs (not very likely).I have the number 1 pick and of course will select Tomlinson.What are your thoughts on picks 32/33 and 64/65?Or on anything else?ThanksScott

You have to take another RB, if one of any value is there Even if you have to grab his handcuff later.Then whatever WR/Gates you like best because of the PPR.My one bit of advice... is to figure out what position you will not get. The one you let slide, because you simply cant get everything.Usually I do this with defensive backs and one offensive position. Sometimes it QBs sometimes its WRs or TEs.You still get those guys, but you get 'em bunches to try and hit on something.But if you figure out where you will short yourself prehand, you can make a strategy to best put it to work.Also, if you know what late sleepers you like, you can work off of this to know where late value is, to let the corresponding position slide.This year I would let the TE slide and try and grab a couple from the 12-20 range. And also WRs are easy to stack up on.I wont be letting the QBs slide this year (unlike in years past). As a dynasty, I would want a QB to lead your team for years without the headache. It still the highest scoring position.Though not rigid, I would expect something like this at the onset...RBRBWRQB (crossing my fingers)WR (if value)--(value at whatever... hoping its RB)Core IDPCore IDPand onAs you have the corner, snagging a RB combo could be a very good play. (Jones/Bell, Morency/Jackson, White/Henry, etc...)
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Thanks to everyone for their help. I got hung up by the software a few times and it made a few auto picks. I was ready to quit at the time, but I think I have a good team never the less. I am definitely weakest at DB.

My top rated starters are:

RB- Tomlinson, Edge

WR - Roy Williams, Mark Clayton, D.J. Hacket/Jerry Porter

QB - Marc Bulger

TE - Jeremy Shockey

K - Jason Elam

DL - Derrick Burgess, Michael Strahan???, John Henderson

LB - Ernin Sims, Keith Brooking, Gary Brackett (Also Dan Morgan is playing this week)

DB - Sean Considine, Quentin Jammer, Ken Hamlin

Not too bad for a 16 team league.

Pick Pos Name Team Bye

1 RB Tomlinson, LaDainian SD 7

32 WR Williams, Roy DET 6

33 RB James, Edgerrin ARI 8 (Auto pick) I was considering taking Gates, but their was glitch in the software (or headware) I can live with Edge

64 QB Bulger, Marc STL 9

65 RB Turner, Michael SD 7 - I wasn't sure about going for the handcuff and could have used another WR, but I feel good about this.

96 LB Sims, Ernie DET 6

97 WR Clayton, Mark BAL 8

128 TE Shockey, Jeremy NYG 9

129 LB Brooking, Keith ATL 8

160 WR Hackett, D.J. SEA 8

161 DL Burgess, Derrick OAK 5

192 DL Strahan, Michael NYG 9 (Auto pick) If Strahan plays this year, this isn't too bad.

193 DB Allen, Jason MIA 9 (Auto pick) This one is a diaster. I was ready to pick Chad Greenway LB

224 QB Favre, Brett GB 7

225 LB Brackett, Gary IND 6

256 LB Gaither, Omar PHI 5

257 WR Porter, Jerry OAK 5

288 TE Scheffler, Tony DEN 6

289 DB Jammer, Quentin SD 7

320 DB Considine, Sean PHI 5

321 WR Williams, Reggie JAC 4 - I don't why I made this pick

352 RB Dorsey, DeDe IND 6

353 PK Elam, Jason DEN 6

384 DL Henderson, John JAC 4

385 DL Douglas, Marques SF 6

416 DB Hamlin, Ken DAL 8

417 DB McGee, Terrence BUF 6

448 LB James, Bradie DAL 8

449 WR McCardell, Keenan HOU 10

480 LB Morgan, Dan CAR 7

481 PK Bironas, Rob TEN 4

512 DL Scott, Darrion MIN 5

513 DB Bullocks, Daniel DET 6

544 QB Edwards, Trent BUF 6

545 DL Alama-Francis, Ikaika DET 6

576 TE Scaife, Bo TEN 4

577 DL Roye, Orpheus CLE 7

608 WR Moulds, Eric TEN 4

609 WR Bradley, Mark CHI 9

640 LB Simoneau, Mark NO 4

641 WR McCareins, Justin NYJ 10

672 WR Wilford, Ernest JAC 4 - I was suggest Wilford was a steal at pick 672

673 DB Rogers, Carlos WAS 4

Thanks again.

Scott

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Jene: What do you think about the suggestion above?"I wouldn't object to my first 3 picks being LT, Gates, and Palmer"I'm flexible, but picking a QB and TE that early rubs me the wrong way.Scott

Picking a QB that early is HUGE.Think of it this way: QB careers are very long, and if you can get a guy who will be a top player for a half-decade or more you take it. Gates & Palmer are both those kinds of guys.You can fill in the roster with vets who will contribute, and you should be able to get an adequate set of WR/RB from rounds 4-7.(edit - just saw you picked, it's a shame you got stuck with Edge over Gates)
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(edit - just saw you picked, it's a shame you got stuck with Edge over Gates)

--------------------------------------------------

What happened was that I tentatively selected Gates and still had a minute on the clock, so I switched back to the other window to look some more. When I switched back and hit "Select," I got an error saying that player had already been selected. Then I got Edge in the Autopick. A similar thing happened with Strahan and Jason Allen. I looks like (I'm hoping anyway) that Strahan is going to play this year.

While I was going to take Gates, I have some conservative comfort in having LT, Edge and Turner as RBs (a great albeit expensive handcuff this year and a likely solid starter in future years). I need start only one.

I now have to set (up to five) contract years. The salaries increase each year but there is no maximum number of contract years.

How many years would you select for Edge? I'm thinking three - til the end of his contract.

Any other advice on contract years would be greately appreciated.

Scott

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I might go 2 years on Edge, he's declined rapidly. I'd go max on LT & Turner, though.

:)
Thanks again to everyone.

Much to my surprise they opened up the free agency so I swapped out five players. The good part is that there was no cap hit. So I dumped CB Jason Allen at $9 and got SS James Butler NYG and Gerald Sensabaugh JAC SS for $1. There not studs, but starting SS and cheap. Maybe one will be a big surprise. I also picked up Cornelius Griffin DT WAS, Scott Shanle LB NO, and Darren Howard DE PHI and dropped Darrion Scott, Orpheus Roye, Mark Simoneau, and Jusitn McCareins. I think each guy I picked up was youner and/or better, but in each case they only cost $1.

How many years for border line starters?

Jerry Porter

Bradie James

DJ Hackett

You can extend their contracts once, if you sign them for at least two years.

I don't know if this is common or not. First round picks were $15, second and third were $14...... Second year salaries are 120% + $1, third year 140% +$1, etc, but the cap increases $100 each year beginning at $325. The cap hits are 50% no matter what. So if you signed someone for five years and cut them, you have to pay 50% or their scheduled salary for all the reamaining years.

I think there is a lot of room under the cap.

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I might go 2 years on Edge, he's declined rapidly. I'd go max on LT & Turner, though.

:goodposting:
Thanks again to everyone.

Much to my surprise they opened up the free agency so I swapped out five players. The good part is that there was no cap hit. So I dumped CB Jason Allen at $9 and got SS James Butler NYG and Gerald Sensabaugh JAC SS for $1. There not studs, but starting SS and cheap. Maybe one will be a big surprise. I also picked up Cornelius Griffin DT WAS, Scott Shanle LB NO, and Darren Howard DE PHI and dropped Darrion Scott, Orpheus Roye, Mark Simoneau, and Jusitn McCareins. I think each guy I picked up was youner and/or better, but in each case they only cost $1.

How many years for border line starters?

Jerry Porter

Bradie James

DJ Hackett

You can extend their contracts once, if you sign them for at least two years.

I don't know if this is common or not. First round picks were $15, second and third were $14...... Second year salaries are 120% + $1, third year 140% +$1, etc, but the cap increases $100 each year beginning at $325. The cap hits are 50% no matter what. So if you signed someone for five years and cut them, you have to pay 50% or their scheduled salary for all the reamaining years.

I think there is a lot of room under the cap.

I'd be leery about making any major investment in Porter unless Culpepper looks recovered this weekend. I'd hate to pay him for two years for little production. There's a different story on James every day, but for now it sounds like he may be back in the nickel. With no one obviously on the horizon to replace him, he's worth a two year deal to hold the option to extend, even with your depth. Hackett has too much upside to not offer a two year contract.
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I'd be pretty willing to go 2 years for Porter & hackett. Porter has performed well in the past, and if it's a bad contract that second year, it's onlyhalf of a one-year deal, plus I dobt it will be too bad - what do you have him at?

Hackett I'd extend, and since he should be cheap maybe go 3 years.

I think when you say 2 years, you mean this year & next, so only one year out, correct?

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I think when you say 2 years, you mean this year & next, so only one year out, correct?

Yes, by two years, I mean this year and next.My inclination is to go at least two years on everyone with a few exceptions, e.g. McCardell and Stahan (unless there is an epiphany by next week)I'm thinking that I'll try sitting on what I have - LT, Edge, Bulger, Roy Williams, etc., for at two years until I see what the dynamics are (Somewhat ironically that is the title of this thread) The one thing I don't have a feel for - is how many of the 43 man roster will turn over each year on average?
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