Question about FBG rankings of certain IDPs (1 Viewer)

Just a few surprises in your Draft Dominator regarding IDP, my comments are what I assume to be the reasoning (of course, I'm still learning my IDP, so please educate me where I'm afoul!)

1) Gibril Wilson - DB25? don't like his move to Oakland? I would think with those corners, he would be a be freer to help in run support, which Oakland desperately needs

2) Marcus Trufant - again, VERY low - you think his picks last year were an anomaly I assume? That's a crappy division they play in, Seattle should be ahead a whole lot, I'd think they'd get thrown on all day long

3) Jon Beason - LB15 kinda surprised me. I just figured him for top 10. You think he was lucky last season? He's listed in the "every down LB" thread still and I didn't notice a coaching change at Carolina

4) Lance Briggs - LB25 was surprisingly low, you think he's headed downhill? Think he's going to miss more games?

5) Aaron Kampman - Corey Williams leaving helps? I figured between KGB's injury and Corey Williams being elsewhere, that the focus would be on Kampman, and he'd not get his sacks and his value would drop

Anyway, those are just the 5 things that popped into my head as I was reviewing my dominator rankings yesterday, so I figured I'd ask.

Thanks for an awesome forum.

kethnaab said:

Just a few surprises in your Draft Dominator regarding IDP, my comments are what I assume to be the reasoning (of course, I'm still learning my IDP, so please educate me where I'm afoul!)

1) Gibril Wilson - DB25? don't like his move to Oakland? I would think with those corners, he would be a be freer to help in run support, which Oakland desperately needs

2) Marcus Trufant - again, VERY low - you think his picks last year were an anomaly I assume? That's a crappy division they play in, Seattle should be ahead a whole lot, I'd think they'd get thrown on all day long

3) Jon Beason - LB15 kinda surprised me. I just figured him for top 10. You think he was lucky last season? He's listed in the "every down LB" thread still and I didn't notice a coaching change at Carolina

4) Lance Briggs - LB25 was surprisingly low, you think he's headed downhill? Think he's going to miss more games?

5) Aaron Kampman - Corey Williams leaving helps? I figured between KGB's injury and Corey Williams being elsewhere, that the focus would be on Kampman, and he'd not get his sacks and his value would drop

Anyway, those are just the 5 things that popped into my head as I was reviewing my dominator rankings yesterday, so I figured I'd ask.

Thanks for an awesome forum.

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Packers are concerned with the DT position. They may have to move Jenkins inside more if Harrell doesn't get healthy. They have told him they need him to ply.

kethnaab said:

Just a few surprises in your Draft Dominator regarding IDP, my comments are what I assume to be the reasoning (of course, I'm still learning my IDP, so please educate me where I'm afoul!)1) Gibril Wilson - DB25? don't like his move to Oakland? I would think with those corners, he would be a be freer to help in run support, which Oakland desperately needs2) Marcus Trufant - again, VERY low - you think his picks last year were an anomaly I assume? That's a crappy division they play in, Seattle should be ahead a whole lot, I'd think they'd get thrown on all day long3) Jon Beason - LB15 kinda surprised me. I just figured him for top 10. You think he was lucky last season? He's listed in the "every down LB" thread still and I didn't notice a coaching change at Carolina4) Lance Briggs - LB25 was surprisingly low, you think he's headed downhill? Think he's going to miss more games?5) Aaron Kampman - Corey Williams leaving helps? I figured between KGB's injury and Corey Williams being elsewhere, that the focus would be on Kampman, and he'd not get his sacks and his value would dropAnyway, those are just the 5 things that popped into my head as I was reviewing my dominator rankings yesterday, so I figured I'd ask. Thanks for an awesome forum.

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I assume these are based on Norton's projections and your own league scoring system.Without knowing your scoring system, this is where these players currently rank using the Norton's projections and the FBG scoring:Gibril Wilson - S6 and DB7Marcus Trufant - CB14 and DB36Jon Beason - ILB7 and LB7Lance Briggs - OLB4 and LB20Aaron Kampman - DE5 and DL5

I'm not able to check the Dominator for errors in the uploaded projections right now, but given the difference between the projections posted to the site and your rankings for guys like Wilson, Briggs and Beason, I'm going to guess two things. First, you've got a significantly big play oriented scoring system, with a sack-to-tackle ratio well above 4.0 and are getting big points for interceptions as well. Those three guys have relatively fewer sacks and picks than some of their counterparts and would fall some in the rankings -- if the scoring system was big play oriented enough, guys like Julian Peterson, James Harrison, Shaun Phillips, etc, etc, will end up above even some of the 90+ solo tackle guys. I'd also bet that the difference in total points in the 15-25 rank range (and the corresponding VBD/DVBD numbers) isn't too significant.

If you want, post your scoring system and/or the top 25 LBs according to your Dominator setup and we can look over them. I'll take a look at the Dominator projections file later tonight to make sure there weren't any errors when the projections were uploaded.

I'm not sure what "very low" for Trufant means. He is projected for less tackles and fewer picks by both John and Aaron, which is likely because he's not in a scheme that's likely to generate consistent opportunity for tackles and repeating his seven INT season is a reasonably low probability. It's also worth noting that increased pass attempts against doesn't always equal in better numbers for the secondary players across the board.

May all be a Projections File issue, though.

Hey, I really appreciate you checking this out for me.

I exported the thing as a CSV file, and here's what I end up with:

Draft Dominator June 5.

IDP scoring (from the draft dominator, so I know I didn't fat-finger anything!)

Solo - 1.00

Asst - 0.50

Sack - 2.00

Pass Def - 0.50

Interception - 3.00

Forced Fumble - 2.00

Fumble Recovery - 3.00

Touchdown - 6.00

Here's the DB ratings that resulted:

FBG Player Points1 Sean Jones 117.42 Adrian Wilson 116.73 Kerry Rhodes 114.14 Roman Harper 112.65 Chinedum Ndukwe 107.66 Nate Clements 1077 Antoine Winfield 106.38 Richard Marshall 106.39 Michael Lewis 10510 Rodney Harrison 104.411 Oshiomogho Atogwe 10412 Charles Tillman 103.813 Bob Sanders 102.914 Clinton Hart 102.815 Champ Bailey 102.616 Ronde Barber 101.617 Chris Harris 100.518 Troy Polamalu 100.219 Bernard Pollard 100.120 Jason Allen 99.521 Brian Dawkins 98.722 Jermaine Phillips 98.323 LaRon Landry 97.124 Darrelle Revis 96.626 Sammy Knight 96.525 Gibril Wilson 96.5What struck me as odd was Gibril Wilson being 25th, Leigh Bodden being 31st (projected 93.6) and Marcus Trufant being 39th (projected 90.8). I especially thought the Leigh Bodden thing was odd, but I passed on him and ended up with Sean Jones, Kerry Rhodes and Adrian Wilson. Here's how the LBs broke down:

FBG Player Points1 David Harris 163.52 Patrick Willis 148.63 Paul Posluszny 139.64 DeMeco Ryans 139.65 London Fletcher 138.46 Brian Urlacher 136.77 Nick Barnett 132.38 Kirk Morrison 131.59 E.J. Henderson 130.510 Barrett Ruud 13011 Lofa Tatupu 129.112 Mike Peterson 128.913 Ray Lewis 127.914 Keith Bulluck 127.315 Jon Beason 126.616 Will Witherspoon 125.217 Jonathan Vilma 123.618 Gary Brackett 123.619 Ernie Sims 123.120 Donnie Edwards 122.721 Karlos Dansby 120.622 Antonio Pierce 119.523 Demarcus Ware 118.924 David Thornton 118.225 Lance Briggs 117.8The anomalies here with Briggs and Beason being so low, and Pos being so high (but I watched that kid play, I think he's gonna have a huge season). I did skip on Beason and ended up "stuck" with David Harris, London Fletcher, Kirk Morrison. I took a chance on Pos since he was available later, and then I went with Jonathan Vilma just in case and took Briggs anyway. Here's the DL, just to "round things out"

FBG Player Points1 Jared Allen 100.52 Aaron Kampman 95.83 Trent Cole 93.14 Mario Williams 89.85 Osi Umenyiora 86.26 Kyle Vanden Bosch 83.47 Julius Peppers 81.68 Terrell Suggs 80.99 Patrick Kerney 80.610 Andre Carter 80.211 Justin Tuck 79.112 Jovan Haye 77.113 Aaron Schobel 75.614 Elvis Dumervil 75.115 Will Smith 7516 Derrick Burgess 74.717 Tamba Hali 73.918 Adewale Ogunleye 73.419 Tommy Kelly 73.120 Darryl Tapp 7321 Jason Taylor 72.822 Leonard Little 7223 Antwan Odom 70.724 Kelly Gregg 70.325 Alex Brown 70.2Looking at the projections though, something is a bit weird as you have Jon Beason listed as an OLB, Will Witherspoon listed as an OLB, Urlacher as a WLB, and Briggs as an ILB. I was under the impression that all of those gentlemen were MLBs with Briggs being a WLB, although I sure could be wrong.Anyway, thanks a ton, as I said. Sorry it ended up so jumbled, I'm not quite bright enough to get things to space properly.

kethnaab said:

Looking at the projections though, something is a bit weird as you have Jon Beason listed as an OLB, Will Witherspoon listed as an OLB, Urlacher as a WLB, and Briggs as an ILB. I was under the impression that all of those gentlemen were MLBs with Briggs being a WLB, although I sure could be wrong.

Anyway, thanks a ton, as I said. Sorry it ended up so jumbled, I'm not quite bright enough to get things to space properly.

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http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/currentproj-ilb.phpBeason, Witherspoon, Urlacher are all listed as ILBs

Briggs is listed as an OLB

where are you seeing these wrong listings?

in the Draft Dominator itself

Okay, few things to add now that I've downloaded the DD.

First, I've downloaded the most recent projections, so some things may have changed. Second, I've no idea why the players are listed at the positions they currently are in the projections file. Well over 50% of them are incorrect. We've not marked them internally as WLB/SLB and our depth charts don't have many of these players in the wrong places, so I'm as confused as you are there. I'll look into it. You're not able to select ILB/OLB/WLB/SLB as separate positions anyway and they don't show up that way in the DD VBD draft windows, so it's not a major issue. Still, it'd be nice to have it corrected.

In the current projections, with the scoring system you've posted, I get....

Wilson DB10

Briggs LB26

Beason LB9

Posluszny LB5

Bodden LB31

Trufant LB41

I don't think you've done anything wrong with the DD and the projections look correct. What is important to point out is that the raw ranking can be very misleading -- in all positions but particularly with the IDPs. If you look at the fantasy points generated by the scoring system you've put into the DD and the VBD numbers associated with them, you'll notice that there's very little difference among certain groups of players. For instance, Gibril Wilson at DB10 is three solo tackles out of the top five. Jon Beason is six solos from the top five. Trufant is three solos and two INTs from the top 20.

Aaron or John are probably better able to address the specific projections vs rankings questions since they've done the projections, specifically with regard to Briggs, Bodden and Trufant. My guess is that the Briggs issue falls within the tiering argument as well. Briggs is reasonably projected for 93 solos to me. If you think he deserves more solos or big plays, he belongs higher in that tier. But there's a large group of guys with 90+ solo potential this year, so Briggs ends up relatively low. Bodden and Trufant? It's a tackle heavy system and I can appreciate the difficulty in projecting either to have big tackle numbers. Neither have great track records. Staying conservative is probably the better way to go there, with the understanding that their upside may make them more valuable than Jason Allen, who's currently projected much higher.

It's the projections vs confidence rankings argument that we have nearly every year. The projections are essential to making the DD work for everyone's scoring system, but I always argue that, while the details are important, you need to consider the big picture to draft as well as possible.

ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out.

any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?

to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

kethnaab said:

ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out. any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

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I can ask Bruce about the depth chart issue, but my guess is that it would be unlikely to happen until 2009.If you'll allow me to put my shill hat on for a bit in case some other undecideds wander through, while I love the DD and use it during all my drafts for tracking and ADP purposes, I believe the bulk of the value of our IDP coverage is in the stuff our staff produces. The content posted last week (faceoffs, spotlights (hopefully today) and other articles) are an excellent preview of what you'll get after the site goes pay. Plenty more summer content to come, then detailed IDP coverage (on the order of 7-8 separate columns with different areas of focus, not including rankings and projections) on a weekly basis in-season.

Jene Bramel said:

kethnaab said:

ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out. any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

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I can ask Bruce about the depth chart issue, but my guess is that it would be unlikely to happen until 2009.If you'll allow me to put my shill hat on for a bit in case some other undecideds wander through, while I love the DD and use it during all my drafts for tracking and ADP purposes, I believe the bulk of the value of our IDP coverage is in the stuff our staff produces. The content posted last week (faceoffs, spotlights (hopefully today) and other articles) are an excellent preview of what you'll get after the site goes pay. Plenty more summer content to come, then detailed IDP coverage (on the order of 7-8 separate columns with different areas of focus, not including rankings and projections) on a weekly basis in-season.

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When does the site go pay?

kethnaab said:

ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out. any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

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The "Eye of the Guru" (EOTG) report is worth the subscription. Norton produces it towards the end of camp each year and it is a fantastic report with great in-depth IDP analysis of the defensive line, linebackers, and secondary on every team.

Jene Bramel said:

kethnaab said:

ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out. any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

Click to expand...

I can ask Bruce about the depth chart issue, but my guess is that it would be unlikely to happen until 2009.If you'll allow me to put my shill hat on for a bit in case some other undecideds wander through, while I love the DD and use it during all my drafts for tracking and ADP purposes, I believe the bulk of the value of our IDP coverage is in the stuff our staff produces. The content posted last week (faceoffs, spotlights (hopefully today) and other articles) are an excellent preview of what you'll get after the site goes pay. Plenty more summer content to come, then detailed IDP coverage (on the order of 7-8 separate columns with different areas of focus, not including rankings and projections) on a weekly basis in-season.

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To build on what Jene said, I use DD for my redraft leagues but I do not follow it strictly, especially after the first 4-5 rounds.It is a great tool for helping you find tiers and droppoffs in the draft. It is also useful to help you see how your roster is filling out, where you are weak, how many spots till your next pick, etc.Also, DD will recommend a player who I just don't like (a guy like Rudi Johnson, Ahman Green, or Dominic Rhodes comes to mind) and I will take a player that is ranked slightly below them but I like better (Selvin Young/Chester Taylor, Leon Washington, Michael Bush/Kenny Watson.

J Giles Band said:

Jene Bramel said:

kethnaab said:

ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out. any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

Click to expand...

I can ask Bruce about the depth chart issue, but my guess is that it would be unlikely to happen until 2009.If you'll allow me to put my shill hat on for a bit in case some other undecideds wander through, while I love the DD and use it during all my drafts for tracking and ADP purposes, I believe the bulk of the value of our IDP coverage is in the stuff our staff produces. The content posted last week (faceoffs, spotlights (hopefully today) and other articles) are an excellent preview of what you'll get after the site goes pay. Plenty more summer content to come, then detailed IDP coverage (on the order of 7-8 separate columns with different areas of focus, not including rankings and projections) on a weekly basis in-season.

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When does the site go pay?

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I don't know if the date has been formally determined/announced yet, but it's traditionally mid-July.