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Question about FBG rankings of certain IDPs


kethnaab

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Just a few surprises in your Draft Dominator regarding IDP, my comments are what I assume to be the reasoning (of course, I'm still learning my IDP, so please educate me where I'm afoul!)

1) Gibril Wilson - DB25? don't like his move to Oakland? I would think with those corners, he would be a be freer to help in run support, which Oakland desperately needs

2) Marcus Trufant - again, VERY low - you think his picks last year were an anomaly I assume? That's a crappy division they play in, Seattle should be ahead a whole lot, I'd think they'd get thrown on all day long

3) Jon Beason - LB15 kinda surprised me. I just figured him for top 10. You think he was lucky last season? He's listed in the "every down LB" thread still and I didn't notice a coaching change at Carolina

4) Lance Briggs - LB25 was surprisingly low, you think he's headed downhill? Think he's going to miss more games?

5) Aaron Kampman - Corey Williams leaving helps? I figured between KGB's injury and Corey Williams being elsewhere, that the focus would be on Kampman, and he'd not get his sacks and his value would drop

Anyway, those are just the 5 things that popped into my head as I was reviewing my dominator rankings yesterday, so I figured I'd ask.

Thanks for an awesome forum. :lmao:

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Just a few surprises in your Draft Dominator regarding IDP, my comments are what I assume to be the reasoning (of course, I'm still learning my IDP, so please educate me where I'm afoul!)

1) Gibril Wilson - DB25? don't like his move to Oakland? I would think with those corners, he would be a be freer to help in run support, which Oakland desperately needs

2) Marcus Trufant - again, VERY low - you think his picks last year were an anomaly I assume? That's a crappy division they play in, Seattle should be ahead a whole lot, I'd think they'd get thrown on all day long

3) Jon Beason - LB15 kinda surprised me. I just figured him for top 10. You think he was lucky last season? He's listed in the "every down LB" thread still and I didn't notice a coaching change at Carolina

4) Lance Briggs - LB25 was surprisingly low, you think he's headed downhill? Think he's going to miss more games?

5) Aaron Kampman - Corey Williams leaving helps? I figured between KGB's injury and Corey Williams being elsewhere, that the focus would be on Kampman, and he'd not get his sacks and his value would drop

Anyway, those are just the 5 things that popped into my head as I was reviewing my dominator rankings yesterday, so I figured I'd ask.

Thanks for an awesome forum. :rolleyes:

Packers are concerned with the DT position. They may have to move Jenkins inside more if Harrell doesn't get healthy. They have told him they need him to ply.
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Just a few surprises in your Draft Dominator regarding IDP, my comments are what I assume to be the reasoning (of course, I'm still learning my IDP, so please educate me where I'm afoul!)1) Gibril Wilson - DB25? don't like his move to Oakland? I would think with those corners, he would be a be freer to help in run support, which Oakland desperately needs2) Marcus Trufant - again, VERY low - you think his picks last year were an anomaly I assume? That's a crappy division they play in, Seattle should be ahead a whole lot, I'd think they'd get thrown on all day long3) Jon Beason - LB15 kinda surprised me. I just figured him for top 10. You think he was lucky last season? He's listed in the "every down LB" thread still and I didn't notice a coaching change at Carolina4) Lance Briggs - LB25 was surprisingly low, you think he's headed downhill? Think he's going to miss more games?5) Aaron Kampman - Corey Williams leaving helps? I figured between KGB's injury and Corey Williams being elsewhere, that the focus would be on Kampman, and he'd not get his sacks and his value would dropAnyway, those are just the 5 things that popped into my head as I was reviewing my dominator rankings yesterday, so I figured I'd ask. Thanks for an awesome forum. :thumbdown:

I assume these are based on Norton's projections and your own league scoring system.Without knowing your scoring system, this is where these players currently rank using the Norton's projections and the FBG scoring:Gibril Wilson - S6 and DB7Marcus Trufant - CB14 and DB36Jon Beason - ILB7 and LB7Lance Briggs - OLB4 and LB20Aaron Kampman - DE5 and DL5
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I'm not able to check the Dominator for errors in the uploaded projections right now, but given the difference between the projections posted to the site and your rankings for guys like Wilson, Briggs and Beason, I'm going to guess two things. First, you've got a significantly big play oriented scoring system, with a sack-to-tackle ratio well above 4.0 and are getting big points for interceptions as well. Those three guys have relatively fewer sacks and picks than some of their counterparts and would fall some in the rankings -- if the scoring system was big play oriented enough, guys like Julian Peterson, James Harrison, Shaun Phillips, etc, etc, will end up above even some of the 90+ solo tackle guys. I'd also bet that the difference in total points in the 15-25 rank range (and the corresponding VBD/DVBD numbers) isn't too significant.

If you want, post your scoring system and/or the top 25 LBs according to your Dominator setup and we can look over them. I'll take a look at the Dominator projections file later tonight to make sure there weren't any errors when the projections were uploaded.

I'm not sure what "very low" for Trufant means. He is projected for less tackles and fewer picks by both John and Aaron, which is likely because he's not in a scheme that's likely to generate consistent opportunity for tackles and repeating his seven INT season is a reasonably low probability. It's also worth noting that increased pass attempts against doesn't always equal in better numbers for the secondary players across the board.

May all be a Projections File issue, though.

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Hey, I really appreciate you checking this out for me.

I exported the thing as a CSV file, and here's what I end up with:

Draft Dominator June 5.

IDP scoring (from the draft dominator, so I know I didn't fat-finger anything!)

Solo - 1.00

Asst - 0.50

Sack - 2.00

Pass Def - 0.50

Interception - 3.00

Forced Fumble - 2.00

Fumble Recovery - 3.00

Touchdown - 6.00

Here's the DB ratings that resulted:

FBG	Player			Points1	Sean Jones		117.42	Adrian Wilson		116.73	Kerry Rhodes		114.14	Roman Harper		112.65	Chinedum Ndukwe		107.66	Nate Clements		1077	Antoine Winfield					106.38	Richard Marshall					106.39	Michael Lewis		10510	Rodney Harrison		104.411	Oshiomogho Atogwe					10412	Charles Tillman		103.813	Bob Sanders		102.914	Clinton Hart		102.815	Champ Bailey		102.616	Ronde Barber		101.617	Chris Harris		100.518	Troy Polamalu		100.219	Bernard Pollard		100.120	Jason Allen		99.521	Brian Dawkins		98.722	Jermaine Phillips					98.323	LaRon Landry		97.124	Darrelle Revis		96.626	Sammy Knight		96.525	Gibril Wilson		96.5
What struck me as odd was Gibril Wilson being 25th, Leigh Bodden being 31st (projected 93.6) and Marcus Trufant being 39th (projected 90.8). I especially thought the Leigh Bodden thing was odd, but I passed on him and ended up with Sean Jones, Kerry Rhodes and Adrian Wilson.

Here's how the LBs broke down:

FBG	Player			Points1	David Harris		163.52	Patrick Willis		148.63	Paul Posluszny		139.64	DeMeco Ryans		139.65	London Fletcher		138.46	Brian Urlacher		136.77	Nick Barnett		132.38	Kirk Morrison		131.59	E.J. Henderson		130.510	Barrett Ruud		13011	Lofa Tatupu		129.112	Mike Peterson		128.913	Ray Lewis		127.914	Keith Bulluck		127.315	Jon Beason		126.616	Will Witherspoon	125.217	Jonathan Vilma		123.618	Gary Brackett		123.619	Ernie Sims		123.120	Donnie Edwards		122.721	Karlos Dansby		120.622	Antonio Pierce		119.523	Demarcus Ware		118.924	David Thornton		118.225	Lance Briggs		117.8
The anomalies here with Briggs and Beason being so low, and Pos being so high (but I watched that kid play, I think he's gonna have a huge season). I did skip on Beason and ended up "stuck" with David Harris, London Fletcher, Kirk Morrison. I took a chance on Pos since he was available later, and then I went with Jonathan Vilma just in case and took Briggs anyway.

Here's the DL, just to "round things out"

FBG	Player			Points1	Jared Allen		100.52	Aaron Kampman		95.83	Trent Cole		93.14	Mario Williams		89.85	Osi Umenyiora		86.26	Kyle Vanden Bosch	83.47	Julius Peppers		81.68	Terrell Suggs		80.99	Patrick Kerney		80.610	Andre Carter		80.211	Justin Tuck		79.112	Jovan Haye		77.113	Aaron Schobel		75.614	Elvis Dumervil		75.115	Will Smith		7516	Derrick Burgess		74.717	Tamba Hali		73.918	Adewale Ogunleye	73.419	Tommy Kelly		73.120	Darryl Tapp		7321	Jason Taylor		72.822	Leonard Little		7223	Antwan Odom		70.724	Kelly Gregg		70.325	Alex Brown		70.2
Looking at the projections though, something is a bit weird as you have Jon Beason listed as an OLB, Will Witherspoon listed as an OLB, Urlacher as a WLB, and Briggs as an ILB. I was under the impression that all of those gentlemen were MLBs with Briggs being a WLB, although I sure could be wrong.

Anyway, thanks a ton, as I said. Sorry it ended up so jumbled, I'm not quite bright enough to get things to space properly.

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Looking at the projections though, something is a bit weird as you have Jon Beason listed as an OLB, Will Witherspoon listed as an OLB, Urlacher as a WLB, and Briggs as an ILB. I was under the impression that all of those gentlemen were MLBs with Briggs being a WLB, although I sure could be wrong.

Anyway, thanks a ton, as I said. Sorry it ended up so jumbled, I'm not quite bright enough to get things to space properly.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/currentproj-ilb.php

Beason, Witherspoon, Urlacher are all listed as ILBs

Briggs is listed as an OLB

where are you seeing these wrong listings?

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Okay, few things to add now that I've downloaded the DD.

First, I've downloaded the most recent projections, so some things may have changed. Second, I've no idea why the players are listed at the positions they currently are in the projections file. Well over 50% of them are incorrect. We've not marked them internally as WLB/SLB and our depth charts don't have many of these players in the wrong places, so I'm as confused as you are there. I'll look into it. You're not able to select ILB/OLB/WLB/SLB as separate positions anyway and they don't show up that way in the DD VBD draft windows, so it's not a major issue. Still, it'd be nice to have it corrected.

In the current projections, with the scoring system you've posted, I get....

Wilson DB10

Briggs LB26

Beason LB9

Posluszny LB5

Bodden LB31

Trufant LB41

I don't think you've done anything wrong with the DD and the projections look correct. What is important to point out is that the raw ranking can be very misleading -- in all positions but particularly with the IDPs. If you look at the fantasy points generated by the scoring system you've put into the DD and the VBD numbers associated with them, you'll notice that there's very little difference among certain groups of players. For instance, Gibril Wilson at DB10 is three solo tackles out of the top five. Jon Beason is six solos from the top five. Trufant is three solos and two INTs from the top 20.

Aaron or John are probably better able to address the specific projections vs rankings questions since they've done the projections, specifically with regard to Briggs, Bodden and Trufant. My guess is that the Briggs issue falls within the tiering argument as well. Briggs is reasonably projected for 93 solos to me. If you think he deserves more solos or big plays, he belongs higher in that tier. But there's a large group of guys with 90+ solo potential this year, so Briggs ends up relatively low. Bodden and Trufant? It's a tackle heavy system and I can appreciate the difficulty in projecting either to have big tackle numbers. Neither have great track records. Staying conservative is probably the better way to go there, with the understanding that their upside may make them more valuable than Jason Allen, who's currently projected much higher.

It's the projections vs confidence rankings argument that we have nearly every year. The projections are essential to making the DD work for everyone's scoring system, but I always argue that, while the details are important, you need to consider the big picture to draft as well as possible.

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ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out.

any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?

to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

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ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out. any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

I can ask Bruce about the depth chart issue, but my guess is that it would be unlikely to happen until 2009.If you'll allow me to put my shill hat on for a bit in case some other undecideds wander through, while I love the DD and use it during all my drafts for tracking and ADP purposes, I believe the bulk of the value of our IDP coverage is in the stuff our staff produces. The content posted last week (faceoffs, spotlights (hopefully today) and other articles) are an excellent preview of what you'll get after the site goes pay. Plenty more summer content to come, then detailed IDP coverage (on the order of 7-8 separate columns with different areas of focus, not including rankings and projections) on a weekly basis in-season.
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ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out. any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

I can ask Bruce about the depth chart issue, but my guess is that it would be unlikely to happen until 2009.If you'll allow me to put my shill hat on for a bit in case some other undecideds wander through, while I love the DD and use it during all my drafts for tracking and ADP purposes, I believe the bulk of the value of our IDP coverage is in the stuff our staff produces. The content posted last week (faceoffs, spotlights (hopefully today) and other articles) are an excellent preview of what you'll get after the site goes pay. Plenty more summer content to come, then detailed IDP coverage (on the order of 7-8 separate columns with different areas of focus, not including rankings and projections) on a weekly basis in-season.
When does the site go pay?
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ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out. any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

The "Eye of the Guru" (EOTG) report is worth the subscription. Norton produces it towards the end of camp each year and it is a fantastic report with great in-depth IDP analysis of the defensive line, linebackers, and secondary on every team.
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ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out. any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

I can ask Bruce about the depth chart issue, but my guess is that it would be unlikely to happen until 2009.If you'll allow me to put my shill hat on for a bit in case some other undecideds wander through, while I love the DD and use it during all my drafts for tracking and ADP purposes, I believe the bulk of the value of our IDP coverage is in the stuff our staff produces. The content posted last week (faceoffs, spotlights (hopefully today) and other articles) are an excellent preview of what you'll get after the site goes pay. Plenty more summer content to come, then detailed IDP coverage (on the order of 7-8 separate columns with different areas of focus, not including rankings and projections) on a weekly basis in-season.
To build on what Jene said, I use DD for my redraft leagues but I do not follow it strictly, especially after the first 4-5 rounds.It is a great tool for helping you find tiers and droppoffs in the draft. It is also useful to help you see how your roster is filling out, where you are weak, how many spots till your next pick, etc.Also, DD will recommend a player who I just don't like (a guy like Rudi Johnson, Ahman Green, or Dominic Rhodes comes to mind) and I will take a player that is ranked slightly below them but I like better (Selvin Young/Chester Taylor, Leon Washington, Michael Bush/Kenny Watson.
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ok, thanks a ton man, your explanation and the ability to really look at the indiivdual projections helps out. any chance that the "depth chart" feature of the DD will include IDP?to be quite honest, I'm about as competent as anyone on offense (who isn't, it's easy!), but the defense is what woudl sway me to drop $$$ on a subscription, and the $$$ on the draft dominator and whatnot to provide more features is what would suck me in

I can ask Bruce about the depth chart issue, but my guess is that it would be unlikely to happen until 2009.If you'll allow me to put my shill hat on for a bit in case some other undecideds wander through, while I love the DD and use it during all my drafts for tracking and ADP purposes, I believe the bulk of the value of our IDP coverage is in the stuff our staff produces. The content posted last week (faceoffs, spotlights (hopefully today) and other articles) are an excellent preview of what you'll get after the site goes pay. Plenty more summer content to come, then detailed IDP coverage (on the order of 7-8 separate columns with different areas of focus, not including rankings and projections) on a weekly basis in-season.
When does the site go pay?
I don't know if the date has been formally determined/announced yet, but it's traditionally mid-July.
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