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The Chris Johnson Hype machine (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ForWhoForWhat
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Liquid Tension
Footballguy
No, but one would be foolish to not recognize that grabbing other positions is becoming MUCH smarter because the RB's are simply not getting as much value anymore. I have been saying that taking Manning in the 1st round is a smart move for 2 years (and been debated heavily) after the first handful of picks. Now taking Brady and Manning is smart in the 1st round. I would also look at locks at other positions to move up as the value is just not there anymore for most RB's.Felix Jones/MBIIICJ/LendaleBush/DeuceTaylor/MJDJacobs/BradshawTurner/Norwood?Stewart/DeWill?I think a lot of teams are going to go more to this model, and we as fantasy players have to get out of the mindset that "RBBC = bad."
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
Not sure what clip you were watching but the DB did not hit the ground first, in fact he might not have even hit the ground at all if you watch it again. All that being said, I would not hold that clip as proof of muchBurning Sensation said:
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
Yeah but I'd figure all the Rams secondary(DBs) players are fast. I don't think the backups are necessarily that much slower than the starters. Mawae and Co gave him a huge hole to run thru and with any back that's an inviting sight. With Chris, backups or starters, that huge hole is like a gun firing at the start of a race. FWIW I don't think it would have matterred if Dante Hall, Devin Hester, Steve Smith were playing RB and in that exact position last night too. Those guys would have been gone as well.
That's a fair point when talking about average players but time and time again it's proven to be pretty useless when you consider the best ones. It wouldn't explain Sweetness' or Faulk's or Priest's success. I didn't think Michael Bennett had "it". We all probably, at one time or another, think we can determine who has "it" and who doesn't. I seem to remember Willie Parker being "just fast" years ago. Brandon Jacobs is too big to be anything other than a GL back. Tiki was too small and would just be a 3rd down back in the NFL.
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EBF
Footballguy
My personal take on Forte is that he's a fringe starter talent in the NFL. I would compare him to someone like Chris Brown. He can perform reasonably well when forced into starting duty, but he's a not a guy you ever want starting for your team. I also think his long legs might make him a higher than average risk for serious knee injuries, but that's just a blind hunch that I can't support at all with any real evidence.
EBF
Footballguy
The thing is, a lot of the guys who the public views as "small" are actually big when you look at their BMI numbers (Faulk, Holmes, Barry Sanders, MJD). Parker and Jacobs have ideal BMI numbers. Tiki Barber is on the small end, but still pretty close to ideal. You just don't see "thin" RBs succeed very often in the NFL.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I don't pay much attention to BMI. What I do pay attention is how a player applies his body to the RB position. Obviously, there are physical builds that don't translate to RB. Chris Johnson has enough strength right now (& he'll get stronger) to excel at the RB position.
In short, I don't like lumping guys into a tool that doesn't take into account extraordinary skills. BMI is WAY too generic, IMO. Most top RBs in the past have a high BMI simply because those kinds of builds are the norm for the position. I don't blame anybody for using it, but it's not something I look at.
In short, I don't like lumping guys into a tool that doesn't take into account extraordinary skills. BMI is WAY too generic, IMO. Most top RBs in the past have a high BMI simply because those kinds of builds are the norm for the position. I don't blame anybody for using it, but it's not something I look at.
I have rarely heard BMI used as a research tool but more often than not as a means to make a rebuttal. I don't recall which round all those guys went in but many of them weren't high prized rooks. Neither was TD or Curtis Martin. I don't recall TDs bad point, Curtis was supposedly too slow. Going on a prototypical body type, Doug Flutie and Jeff Garcia probably shouldn't even play/have played in the NFL and guys like Dan McGwire and Heath Shuler should dominate. The players I mentioned were off the top of my head, I'm sure you know there's been plenty that defied the logic of BMI.
EBF
Footballguy
This is something I've posted a few times this offseason:
Note that the above numbers were compiled using NFL.com's listed heights and weights, which are not completely accurate. A lot of people claim that Brian Westbrook and Chris Johnson have similar builds because Westbrook is listed at 5'10" 203 and Johnson is listed at 5'11" and 200. If these numbers were accurate then Westbrook would have a 29.1 BMI and Johnson would have a 27.9 BMI. But those numbers aren't accurate. Brian Westbrook isn't 5'10". At the combine he was 5'8.3" and 200 pounds. That's good for a BMI of 30.1, which is barely below the league average for a top 30 back. Westbrook isn't small. He's just short. Johnson was 5'11" and 197 pounds, which is good for a BMI of 27.5. That's lower than everyone on my list except Reggie Bush. And guess what? Reggie Bush's actual combine size was 5'10.7" and 201 pounds for a BMI of 28.3. So Chris Johnson is actually smaller than any of these top 30 RBs. Unless he bulks up considerably, he is probably a RBBC type for life.As for Ahmad Bradshaw, he was 5'9.4" and 198 pounds at the combine. That's good for a BMI of 28.9, which is a little lower than you like to see.
For reference, here's this year's top rookies using actual heights and weights:
Jonathan Stewart - 33.5
Rashard Mendenhall - 32.2
Tashard Choice - 30.5
Ray Rice - 30.3
Ryan Torain - 29.9
Felix Jones - 29.6
Steve Slaton - 29.0
Kevin Smith - 28.5
Matt Forte - 28.4
Jamaal Charles - 27.9
Darren McFadden - 27.7
Chris Johnson - 27.5
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I think the importance of BMI varies by position depending on the degree to which success at that position is determined by physical gifts. QB and RB are two different beasts. Success at the QB position depends almost entirely on instincts and intangibles whereas success at the RB is a position depends almost entirely on raw athletic gifts (which is why guys like Romo, Brady, Hasselbeck, and Bulger keep slipping through the cracks - you can't measure intangibles). The RBs you named as exceptions (TD, Martin) probably would've fit within my ideal BMI range pretty snugly. I think there's clearly a natural selection process favoring high BMI backs. That doesn't mean every back with a high BMI will succeed, but there are few recent examples of low BMI backs reaching elite NFL status.
EBF
Footballguy
This is part of the reason why I'm down on guys like Charles, Forte, Smith, and McFadden. The BMI numbers don't trump what my eyeballs show me, but this year they align with my pre-established opinions almost perfectly. I always felt that Rice and Mendenhall looked like a RB should look when they ran the football, whereas most of the low BMI guys failed to win me over at any point in the process. I think I've been evaluating RBs long enough to have a rough idea of what a RB "should" look like. When a RB doesn't meet those standards, it concerns me. These numbers offer a clue about what I'm seeing in their play that doesn't sit well with me.
meanjoegreen
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
The range of successful WR body types is pretty large. I don't harp on the importance of BMI nearly as much at that position.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Concur. I go out of my way to find exceptions to the rules. My biggest challenge in FF, and most rewarding, is to be ahead of the curve.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
That BMI chart is worthless.
If you can't catch a 27.5 BMI then what does it matter?
If you want to go look at something meaningful like shuttle times, 40 times, leg press max, body fat %, etc. then knock yourself out. But according to the ALMIGHTY BMI a good percentage of the NFL's best RBs are obese.
RBs run, QBs throw, CBs cover, LBs tackle, OL blocks. Nobody BMIs people.
Waste
Of
Time
If you can't catch a 27.5 BMI then what does it matter?
If you want to go look at something meaningful like shuttle times, 40 times, leg press max, body fat %, etc. then knock yourself out. But according to the ALMIGHTY BMI a good percentage of the NFL's best RBs are obese.
RBs run, QBs throw, CBs cover, LBs tackle, OL blocks. Nobody BMIs people.
Waste
Of
Time
EBF
Footballguy
I can't imagine why I would ever be forced to choose between them.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm sorry you think it's a coincidence that an overwhelming majority of the top running backs in the NFL fit into a fairly narrow range of body types. I obviously disagree with your interpretation of things.
flooredyas
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Yes, lots but EBF doesn't really like talking about that.
Bristol
Footballguy
Who even says that he will be used as a RB? I have heard a lot of things about him lining up as a WR. I can easily see the Titans using him much like the Eagles do with Westbrook where gets lined up as a WR and teams need to keep an eye on him at all times. Lendale can still pound it, but Johnson gives them a dangerous added dimension.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
"My heart is purple and gold"
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I don't think it's a coincidence.
Your "system" is based off BMI which any bodybuilder will tell you is completely worthless when trying to assess someone's fitness level or body composition.
What you're trying to do is assign some sort of tangible value to BMI ratios in regard to performance at the RB position when it's just as worthless for RBs as it is for OL. Go calculate some of those linemen BMIs, the hospitals in the US would be full of college/pro linemen if BMI was an accurate indicator of anything significant. All BMI means is that according to an old and limited measuring system, you're calculating someone bodyfat %.
BMI is a reliable indicator of total body fat, which is related to the risk of disease and death. The score is valid for both men and women but it does have some limits.
That's from the website you use. So when you're talking about someone's "build" you'd be better served to try to dig up caliper or hydrostatic measurements if your BMI chart is only telling people an athlete's supposed bodyfat.
Now if you would like to invent some sort of system that measures the tangible statistics that I mentioned in my previous post and adds allowances for height and weight based on what you think "looks like an RB," then we might have something worth talking about. But as it stands, your every mention of BMI in relation to RBs is a
waste
of
time
Your "system" is based off BMI which any bodybuilder will tell you is completely worthless when trying to assess someone's fitness level or body composition.
What you're trying to do is assign some sort of tangible value to BMI ratios in regard to performance at the RB position when it's just as worthless for RBs as it is for OL. Go calculate some of those linemen BMIs, the hospitals in the US would be full of college/pro linemen if BMI was an accurate indicator of anything significant. All BMI means is that according to an old and limited measuring system, you're calculating someone bodyfat %.
BMI is a reliable indicator of total body fat, which is related to the risk of disease and death. The score is valid for both men and women but it does have some limits.
That's from the website you use. So when you're talking about someone's "build" you'd be better served to try to dig up caliper or hydrostatic measurements if your BMI chart is only telling people an athlete's supposed bodyfat.
Now if you would like to invent some sort of system that measures the tangible statistics that I mentioned in my previous post and adds allowances for height and weight based on what you think "looks like an RB," then we might have something worth talking about. But as it stands, your every mention of BMI in relation to RBs is a
waste
of
time
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
There have been, yes. And it turns out you can predict who they are too.Wish I'd figured that out two months ago, I'd have made sure I owned Felix Jones in every league I'm in.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Very nicely said. What I don't like about pigeon-holing a back simply by his BMI score is that it doesn't account for the fact that Chris Johnson may be breaking the mold. It's quite possible the NFL has not seen a back with Johnson's unique combination of size, speed, skills, and toughness.I mean, just watch the guy play football. Beyond that, listen to his teammates and coaches just positively gushing over him as a football player and an absolute weapon on the football field. Preseason hype is one thing, but giddy football players and coaches who can't wait to unleash something special that nobody else quite knows about yet -- that's on a whole separate level. What's going in Titans camp is far from your normal summertime prospect buzz.
I, for one, am giddy right along with them.
This kid needs a nickname.
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EBF
Footballguy
Significant weight gain does happen from time to time, but it seems like most of the top RBs were near finished products when they entered the league. Clinton Portis has gained a lot of weight since his prospect days, but for every guy like Portis there are several guys like Tomlinson, Westbrook, Jackson, Maroney, and Lynch who entered the league maxed out. So while you can't completely rule out the possibility of a prospect adding significant bulk, there's no reason to assume he will and there's no reason to take an undersized prospect when you can get an ideal prospect of equivalent talent level with the same pick.
EBF
Footballguy
Not if Reggie Brown is on that list.Too bad. Ideal body type is pretty close to 100% determinative for elite WRs.
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
You're wrong. And I think I know why too - BMI is a rough measure of how much of a RBs weight is 'useful' when it comes to impact. Which is just another way of saying that Chris Brown's 220 pounds isn't nearly as productive as Ladainian Tomlinson's. LT can get more of his weight 'behind his pads' than a guy three or four inches taller at the same weight can do.
So BMI in isolation may be useless (in fact, I think it is). But BMI combined with weight is incredibly important. And BMI combined with weight combined with forty time is pretty close to determinative again.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Well, I agree with your premise, but Heimerdinger did say. . .
Now, he's also said that he can move Johnson around and play him out wide or in the slot if he wants to.
EBF
Footballguy
I think there's a clear difference between using BMI on an ordinary joe and using it on a fine-tuned athlete. In the former it might be a measure of obesity, but in the latter it seems to be a measure of body thickness/bulk. Almost all RB prospects have low body fat.In any system involving competition and survival of the fittest, you're going to see natural selection. There's clearly a selection process that favors a thick body type at the RB position. That's why you don't see guys with 25 BMIs playing RB in the NFL. They would be DBs or WRs. The unique demands of the RB position demand a certain body type.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Hammy, a la Hammy the the squirrel from the animated movie Over the Hedge.
I mean, just watch the guy play football. Beyond that, listen to his teammates and coaches just positively gushing over him as a football player and an absolute weapon on the football field. Preseason hype is one thing, but giddy football players and coaches who can't wait to unleash something special that nobody else quite knows about yet. What's going in Titans camp is far from your normal summertime prospect buzz.
I, for one, am giddy right along with them.
This kid needs a nickname.
PantherPower
Footballguy
Chris "Cheetah" Johnson 
You're not including the other factors used to judge RBs before they're drafted. Aside from running and blocking ability- Speed, vision, pad-level, work ethic, determination, test scores etc.Under your logic, from the year 1830 or somesuch, a player's weight and height are the only factors that matter.
Using BMI a well built muscle-bound man can prove to have the score of an overweight man. In fact some of the scores you mentioned would be considerred obese according to the BMI scale.
try it yourself, see chart on the left hand side
http://www.nhlbisupport.com/bmi/
Trainers and scouts and such may use it as a guide or useful tool or somesuch but as the be all end all ...ain't happenning.
Eddie George was the perfect specimen(if you will) when he was drafted. He would have been overweight according to BMI. Feel free to google about Eddie and BMI, he's been known to give motivational speeches about health and getting into shape and he mentions BMI and fat % and all those things.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm not a religious person, but when 90% of the top RBs in the NFL adhere to a certain BMI mold, it makes me a believer.
LT is also faster, stronger, and does exercises in the offseason that Chris Brown doesn't do. You can't pretend that it has anything to do with BMI.I've said my piece, I think BMI is worth looking at for about 5 seconds, and then moving on to more meaningful attributes and measurables.
You guys are the BMI GURUS, of course you're going to preach the validity of your religion.
flooredyas
Footballguy
Fair enough. You've offered up an example in Portis. Which leads me to query, WHAT was his BMI upon entering the league and how did you have him projected. Yeah I know, grasping at straws here, but you did offer an example.Don't get me wrong EBF, I'm a big fan of your's and always will be. Just having a problem with your infatuation with BMI as an end all type arguement.
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FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
I understand the BMI argument, but I don't see Johnson as being a true "workhorse" like the players that fit the mold. He will be moved around and put in space for most of his touches, so while he will get some carries as a traditional running back, I think he is going to be used as a hybrid, and be a beast in PPR leagues.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Or maybe I believe in BMI because I spent almost two years looking at the career of every running back drafted since 1998 and figuring out what common features the successful ones have.What'd you do before you decided to write it off?
(unwelcomed)GUEST
Footballguy
I have seen very limited clips of CJ3 and realize he is lighter, but does he remind anyone else of FWP? When the bus was still around, FWP saw his fair share of playing time.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Big Sug
Footballguy
Football sabermetrics is still in its infancy. Those of you who are dissing the BMI studies these guys have done sound an awful lot like the legion of naysayers who thought the baseball stat geeks were crazy 15 years ago. A lot of those geeks are now employed in major league front offices.
EBF et. al are onto something; I think BMI has a lot validity for examining the RB position. It's pretty evident that BMI is correlated with long term success as an every down back in the NFL.
That said, I also think the wide receiver/BMI study featured in the 2008 FO book (is this authored by wdcrob?) suffers from selection bias. It's pretty easy to draw four boxes around the best WR's in the NFL over the past 10 years and say you've discovered the four ideal body types for wideouts.
EBF et. al are onto something; I think BMI has a lot validity for examining the RB position. It's pretty evident that BMI is correlated with long term success as an every down back in the NFL.
That said, I also think the wide receiver/BMI study featured in the 2008 FO book (is this authored by wdcrob?) suffers from selection bias. It's pretty easy to draw four boxes around the best WR's in the NFL over the past 10 years and say you've discovered the four ideal body types for wideouts.
Ruffrodys05
IBL Representative
I'm not sure you really need to do this (anymore) as there seems to be plenty of hype to spare. You can go on living with your man-love for White. We understand. Why don't you start a LenDale Hype thread? You can then play with others of your mindset.I'll be bumping this thread just to keep the hype alive.
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