Hmm. Time for me to hit the bookies and see if I can still get some good odds.A Lazy Sunday talks about players to be "obtained" later this year, among other things.
But, there's also this:
A
But, then again, if there's any team that could wreck the formula it's the Indians.nother writer for BP, Jay Jaffe, has his own system for determine who will and won’t make the playoffs in 2011 based on the importance of the 30-game mark. Jaffe’s research has found that 30 games into the season is enough to make some statistically significant judgements about a team's playoff chances. The article is subscriber only, so I’ll just take this snippet for you:
At the 30-game point, the data—at least at the extremes, which is what's most pertinent to our discussion—become truly meaningful. Of the 115 teams that started 20-10 or better, just seven failed to finish with a winning record; of the 113 teams that started 10-20 or worse, only eight finished above .500. Combining the data, just 15 of the 228 teams on the extremes, or 6.6%, changed course by the end of the season. Looking at the 20-game data, 25 of the 215 teams—11.6%—on the extremes (14 or more wins or losses) changed course. And out of the 59 teams that started 22-8 or better, or 8-22 or worse, just one—the 1995 Phillies—made a complete about-face by season's end.
Trust me when I tell you I am saving you a lot of complex math here, and we’ll just skip to the part where Jaffe’s formula predicts a 1st place finish and a final winning percentage of .529 for the Wahoo Warriors this year. The data is based on 70 years’ worth of real, actual baseball, and while it does involve quite a bit of math that I don’t really understand, I’m a lot more comfortable with Jaffe’s numbers than I am with the BP Odds Report.
yepA Lazy Sunday talks about players to be "obtained" later this year, among other things.
But, there's also this:
A
But, then again, if there's any team that could wreck the formula it's the Indians.nother writer for BP, Jay Jaffe, has his own system for determine who will and won’t make the playoffs in 2011 based on the importance of the 30-game mark. Jaffe’s research has found that 30 games into the season is enough to make some statistically significant judgements about a team's playoff chances. The article is subscriber only, so I’ll just take this snippet for you:
At the 30-game point, the data—at least at the extremes, which is what's most pertinent to our discussion—become truly meaningful. Of the 115 teams that started 20-10 or better, just seven failed to finish with a winning record; of the 113 teams that started 10-20 or worse, only eight finished above .500. Combining the data, just 15 of the 228 teams on the extremes, or 6.6%, changed course by the end of the season. Looking at the 20-game data, 25 of the 215 teams—11.6%—on the extremes (14 or more wins or losses) changed course. And out of the 59 teams that started 22-8 or better, or 8-22 or worse, just one—the 1995 Phillies—made a complete about-face by season's end.
Trust me when I tell you I am saving you a lot of complex math here, and we’ll just skip to the part where Jaffe’s formula predicts a 1st place finish and a final winning percentage of .529 for the Wahoo Warriors this year. The data is based on 70 years’ worth of real, actual baseball, and while it does involve quite a bit of math that I don’t really understand, I’m a lot more comfortable with Jaffe’s numbers than I am with the BP Odds Report.
'Tom Servo said:A 19-1 beat-down of the Royals last night!!! Whoo-hoo!!!!! Now, we have MLB's best record.
That's all I've heard also. There is more discussion about whether they are going to trade him this year (I think no chance assuming the team stays in the race) or wait til next year when he's on his club option. Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contractWhat's the word locally on Sizemore? Everything I've heard is that this isn't the same knee that cost him last year and that he should be good to go when the DL stint is up.Is that what everyone thinks or is there more to worry about here?
Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract
No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract
That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract
That's for sure. The problem is twofold though...opening the checkbook AND actually luring free agents.That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract
Hafner was hitting .340-something until he hurt his side in BP last night.That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract
Hafner also didn't sign his contract this past offseason. Him hitting .340 this year doesn't make his contract all of a sudden a good one.What was the trio of (bigger) contracts they dished out around the same time....Hafner, Westbrook, and ?Hafner was hitting .340-something until he hurt his side in BP last night.That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract
Most everybody else is short-term, has arbitration years bought out or first contract.I thought those were the only two; I could be mistaken.Hafner also didn't sign his contract this past offseason. Him hitting .340 this year doesn't make his contract all of a sudden a good one.What was the trio of (bigger) contracts they dished out around the same time....Hafner, Westbrook, and ?Hafner was hitting .340-something until he hurt his side in BP last night.That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract
I think you are right because I'm probably mixing CC's situation in here...I believe all that was happening at relatively the same time. That was $25M that they could have put in CC's belly.'Tom Servo said:Most everybody else is short-term, has arbitration years bought out or first contract.I thought those were the only two; I could be mistaken.'Bobcat10 said:Hafner also didn't sign his contract this past offseason. Him hitting .340 this year doesn't make his contract all of a sudden a good one.What was the trio of (bigger) contracts they dished out around the same time....Hafner, Westbrook, and ?'Tom Servo said:Hafner was hitting .340-something until he hurt his side in BP last night.That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract
great to see the Indians getting W for their good efforts.......AssDribble is having an outstanding yearSweep of the Reds is done.Does anyone outside Ohio know how good this TEAM really is?
It's a really long season. You wrote this two weeks ago and right now if the Indians went .500 the rest of the way they'd finish 88-74. 88 will win the Central but a young team with iffy pitching is gonna have trouble in the summer months. Boston and Tampa this week, I'm still not believing they can keep this run going but as long as they are hitting they way they are they certainly have a chance over the course of the season. I've gone from complete on-believer, to we'll see mode. Regardless, this is gonna be a much better season than anyone anticipated.Let's say that the Tribe only plays .500 ball the rest of the way...The Tigers have to go 74-58 the rest of the way,Twins 76-57White Sox 76-54..Just to tie.I don't see that happening.
Iffy pitching? Huh? The Indians are 4th in the AL in ERA. The rest of the division is 9th, 10th, and 12th. Tigers, White Sox, and Royals are the ones with iffy pitching.It's a really long season. You wrote this two weeks ago and right now if the Indians went .500 the rest of the way they'd finish 88-74. 88 will win the Central but a young team with iffy pitching is gonna have trouble in the summer months. Boston and Tampa this week, I'm still not believing they can keep this run going but as long as they are hitting they way they are they certainly have a chance over the course of the season. I've gone from complete on-believer, to we'll see mode. Regardless, this is gonna be a much better season than anyone anticipated.Let's say that the Tribe only plays .500 ball the rest of the way...The Tigers have to go 74-58 the rest of the way,Twins 76-57White Sox 76-54..Just to tie.I don't see that happening.
To be fair, you say "staff" (possibly meaning starting staff) and he was talking team ERA. The Indians have one of the best pens in the league, which can go a long way in the numbers game and in winning games (same with scoring alot of runs and being a great home team).We can go back and forth twisting numbers all day. Ten starts, 18 runs in two of those starts against the same team, 16 runs in the other eight starts combined. I'll take Carmona with his 4.76 right now on my staff and I bet you would too.Masterson's the only arm in that rotation that's above average.Tomlin's pitching completely over his head. He's good, but he's not this good. The inevitable correction is coming and soon as his .175 BABIP is unsustainable.Corasco and Carmona have ERAs around 5.00.White's on the DL for 8 to 12 weeks. Talbot takes his place with his career numbers of 4.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIPThe idea of the Indians being the 4th best staff in ERA, when it's all said and done, is comical.
You are 6th in the AL in ERA as starters behind the Tigers (4th) and ahead of the White Sox (8th). Opponents batting average 7th, Tigers 3rd while the rest lag. Overall opponents OPS Tigers are 4th, Cleveland 5th and Chicago 6th. Obviously the difference lies in the bullpens as the Tigers has been categorically awful, the White Sox have had trouble and the other two teams aren't really in the conversation anyway. Again, I like what you've done through 43 games but a young pitching staff is gonna get warn down in the summer and bullpens are about as predictable as Michigan weather. Your group of starters does not impress me. Tomlin, Carrasco, Masterson and Carmona all have pedestrian K/9 numbers but where they've been good is not allowing a lot of walks. It's very unlikely Tomlin can continue at this pace but Carrasco could even that out as a guy that should improve as the season goes on. Masterson I do like, Carmona is too schizo to depend on over the course of a season. Not trying to rain on your parade either, what they've done so far is amazing and they are the team to beat if they keep their walks in check and keep hitting like they are. The White Sox and Tigers go long stretches were they can't hit at all, that is encouraging if your number one worry might be starting pitching.Iffy pitching? Huh? The Indians are 4th in the AL in ERA. The rest of the division is 9th, 10th, and 12th. Tigers, White Sox, and Royals are the ones with iffy pitching.It's a really long season. You wrote this two weeks ago and right now if the Indians went .500 the rest of the way they'd finish 88-74. 88 will win the Central but a young team with iffy pitching is gonna have trouble in the summer months. Boston and Tampa this week, I'm still not believing they can keep this run going but as long as they are hitting they way they are they certainly have a chance over the course of the season. I've gone from complete on-believer, to we'll see mode. Regardless, this is gonna be a much better season than anyone anticipated.Let's say that the Tribe only plays .500 ball the rest of the way...The Tigers have to go 74-58 the rest of the way,Twins 76-57White Sox 76-54..Just to tie.I don't see that happening.
Thanks, GB. I'm just enjoying every day with this team. Everyday feels like Christmas and every night is New Year's Eve (sorry Sade). "What if..." one man's 43 year wait for a World Series championship came to an end?You are 6th in the AL in ERA as starters behind the Tigers (4th) and ahead of the White Sox (8th). Opponents batting average 7th, Tigers 3rd while the rest lag. Overall opponents OPS Tigers are 4th, Cleveland 5th and Chicago 6th. Obviously the difference lies in the bullpens as the Tigers has been categorically awful, the White Sox have had trouble and the other two teams aren't really in the conversation anyway. Again, I like what you've done through 43 games but a young pitching staff is gonna get warn down in the summer and bullpens are about as predictable as Michigan weather.
Your group of starters does not impress me. Tomlin, Carrasco, Masterson and Carmona all have pedestrian K/9 numbers but where they've been good is not allowing a lot of walks. It's very unlikely Tomlin can continue at this pace but Carrasco could even that out as a guy that should improve as the season goes on. Masterson I do like, Carmona is too schizo to depend on over the course of a season.
Not trying to rain on your parade either, what they've done so far is amazing and they are the team to beat if they keep their walks in check and keep hitting like they are. The White Sox and Tigers go long stretches were they can't hit at all, that is encouraging if your number one worry might be starting pitching.
Heading down for Buchholz vs Masterson tonight!The FIRST PLACE Cleveland Indians. The Indians have MLB's best record. I like saying that...a lot.
I'll take 1st place comical any day.
Masterson's the only arm in that rotation that's above average.
Tomlin's pitching completely over his head. He's good, but he's not this good. The inevitable correction is coming and soon as his .175 BABIP is unsustainable.
Corasco and Carmona have ERAs around 5.00.
White's on the DL for 8 to 12 weeks.
Talbot takes his place with his career numbers of 4.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP
The idea of the Indians being the 4th best staff in ERA, when it's all said and done, is comical.
You need to see if you can get on STO with Katie Witham...and get pics.Heading down for Buchholz vs Masterson tonight!The FIRST PLACE Cleveland Indians. The Indians have MLB's best record. I like saying that...a lot.
Update GB?You need to see if you can get on STO with Katie Witham...and get pics.Heading down for Buchholz vs Masterson tonight!The FIRST PLACE Cleveland Indians. The Indians have MLB's best record. I like saying that...a lot.
No pics...but one hell of a win!Update GB?You need to see if you can get on STO with Katie Witham...and get pics.Heading down for Buchholz vs Masterson tonight!The FIRST PLACE Cleveland Indians. The Indians have MLB's best record. I like saying that...a lot.
Gotta love the double down though.@keithlaw Not in the least. RT @Gr8Scott26: @keithlaw are you ready to reassess your claim Indians aren't for real?
HEY-OH!Wes Welker with an early TD reception.
7-0 in the 1st.
Don't be jealous of my stellar humor. Just stay focused on finishing the season over the .500 mark.HEY-OH!Wes Welker with an early TD reception.
7-0 in the 1st.
<_<Don't be jealous of my stellar humor. Just stay focused on finishing the season over the .500 mark.HEY-OH!Wes Welker with an early TD reception.
7-0 in the 1st.
You don't think .500 is a realistic goal?<_<Just stay focused on finishing the season over the .500 mark.
If they were .500 right now probably so.You don't think .500 is a realistic goal?<_<Just stay focused on finishing the season over the .500 mark.
That "BoSux" team just took 2 of 3 while outscoring you 30-7... in your own house. Hell they were one uncharacteristically Bad inning from bard away from a sweep. There was a team that "sucked" in Cleveland this week, but it sure wasn't the one from Boston. Tribe should win about 90 games this year. Lucky for you guys the majority of the Central is absolute garbage thereby posing little threat and helping to inflate your win total.The Tribe beats the BoSux last night to be the first team to 30 wins!!!
Thanks for the post.The only way to win a title is to get to the playoffs. If that takes the Central division being absolute garbage and a rip roaring start from my Indians, I'll take it. Once you get there, anything can happen, you know that.That "BoSux" team just took 2 of 3 while outscoring you 30-7... in your own house. Hell they were one uncharacteristically Bad inning from bard away from a sweep. There was a team that "sucked" in Cleveland this week, but it sure wasn't the one from Boston. Tribe should win about 90 games this year. Lucky for you guys the majority of the Central is absolute garbage thereby posing little threat and helping to inflate your win total.The Tribe beats the BoSux last night to be the first team to 30 wins!!!
IndeedThe only way to win a title is to get to the playoffs. If that takes the Central division being absolute garbage and a rip roaring start from my Indians, I'll take it. Once you get there, anything can happen, you know that.
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