I see people saying this, but how often do NFL coaches do something that risky when you're up 8 points? Belichick did it in a 2009 game against the Colts in similar circumstances and it backfired. I believe Mike Smith did it in a 2011 game and it backfired too. Special teams needs to get at least average play on the ensuing punt and not let the guy get to midfield.
As iffy as Hue is, I don't think he lost us this game.
I don't think Hue lost us this game, but I think he is one symptom to a larger issue. The team lost the battle of the turnovers, had to fight a couple of bad calls (which have reported ad nauseum today in the media), poor Special Teams play, as well as dropped passes. There are many things you can point to and say, "Ya know what...you fix that area, and maybe they win yesterday."
In regards to going for it on 4th down, statistically, it has been on the rise since 2005. Per the research from
Chase Stuart, "From 1994–2004, teams went for it on these fourth-and-1 situations
28 percent of the time. From 2005–2014, that number ratcheted up, with teams going for it
35 percent of the time. And in 2015 and 2016, offenses stayed on the field for these fourth downs more than
40 percent."
There are conditions which coaches look at to determine if going for it on 4th and short, one of which is "the game needed to be competitive, defined as within 10 points, to ensure the scoreboard wasn’t the primary factor dictating those decisions".
The situation seen yesterday, falls exactly within that range. To take it a step further, the Browns are tied for 6th in the NFL this year in
4th down Conversion attempts, and hitting on 50% of those attempts, with a solid
67% completion in road games this year.
This situation was literally an inch (maybe two if you're in the NFL offices watching the replays). A QB sneak would've easily gotten the first down. And before I hear that QB sneaks never work, Yale did a study and found that the
QB Sneak has an 83% conversion success rate since 1999. It was an easy call. Baker under center. Give the center a heartbeat to push forward and then Baker follows and hits the ground right behind the center for a quick 4 inch pickup. Given CLE's success rate on the road, as well as the high likelihood of successfully completing a QB sneak for short yardage on 4th down - why not try it? It was a competitive game (within 10 pts), and if you convert you chances for winning the game go up to nearly 98-99%.
The only reason not to go for it is due to a fear of criticism causing the HC to still punt in this situation. Hue could've put this game to bed and took a step towards showing he's the right coach to lead this young team. How better to show you have faith in your QB and young team, than to keep them on the field and say "I believe in you guys! Now go get this first down!" Instead, Hue basically told his team, "Yes I know it's only a couple of inches, but I don't see you guys getting it. Guess we'll punt." To me, that was a true leadership opportunity, and he missed his chance. For a team who has not won more than 2 games in 3 seasons, there is no room to be conservative. You have a team with a rookie QB who has put over 30pts on the board, on the road, on his first start - confidence is high and they are feeling a win streak on the horizon. Why shoot that down? Even if you didn't get it, you show your team that you believe in them and that you're all in this together. It was a character defining moment for Hue, and he missed it.