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Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers


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2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Philip Rivers Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :thumbdown: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

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Philip Rivers had been a consistent performer for the Chargers for the past four years. Solid foundation includes starting all 16 games each year, averaged over 60% completion each year and over 65% the past two, averaged almost 8.0 ypa with 8.8 a year ago, and thrown 2.39 TD per int. His yardage has also climbed from lower 3,000 to over 4,000 for the past two seasons. He has finished as the #8, #15, #3, and #7 QB over that stretch. As the current QB 7 in ADP, he would appear to be a bargain.

However, he may be without his top WR target for the past few years, Vincent Jackson. He is definitely out for three games and with a hold-out or trade looming, could be permanently gone. The guys behind V Jax have talent, but not have shown much production. Malcolm Floyd had a career high 45 catches last year, Legedu Naanee has 40 career receptions, Craig Davis, first rounder in 07 has 30 career receptions, and all three combine for 12 career TDs.

In addition, the Chargers traded up significantly to draft Ryan Mathews and most projections call for them to place more emphasis on establishing the running game. Even if Mathews is successful as a rookie, he is not expected to have as much of an impact catching the ball as the departed Tomlinson has had in the past.

All of these factors seem to spell some decreased production for the CHargers passing attack and in turn, Philip Rivers. He seems to me to be placed at the top of the second tier of QBs which runs from 7 through 12. At this point in the pre-season, it seems that most that want to get a QB early will get Rodgers, P. Manning, Brees, Romo, Schaub, or Brady while the lower members of that second tier (Cutler, Eli Manning, Favre, McNabb, and Flacco) should be as consistent as Rivers in 2010.

Philip Rivers 16 gms 300 complete 470 attempts 63.8% 3,666 yards 7.8 ypa 24 TDs and 12 ints with 40 rush yards and 1 TD

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The Chargers were 23rd in pass attempts last season, and had "only" 972 plays last season. I wouldn't be surprised if San Diego passes a bit more this season, especially if the run defense improves (not sure if that will happen) or the run offense improves (almost a certainty). San Diego passed 519 times last season, and I'd be surprised to see them pass less frequently this year.

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If San Diego either trades Vincent Jackson or he holds out, their WR corps will certainly be lacking a proven productive star. However, I think most will agree that Floyd, Naanee, Davis, and Reed are all talented. Most will also agree that Rivers is one of the top QB talents in the league. With the presence of Antonio Gates, I think that talent will shine through, and allow Rivers to maintain top 7 stats in 2010. I think we may see a season out of Rivers that resembles what Drew Brees does in New Orleans. While Colston in NO is the #1 guy, he was only a 6th round draft pick coming out and no one would claim that his talent is what gets him great numbers, instead what drives his stats is Drew Brees. I'm not sure, without VJax, that any Chargers WR (not counting Gates) will have 1000+ yards and 9+ TDs like Colston is capable of, but Rivers will be able to spread the ball around with an all around capable bunch at WR. Add to the mix what appears to be solid pass catching RBs (we know Sproles can, and Norv is showing confidence in Mathews), and I doubt the Rivers skeptics will be proven correct despite the absence of Vincent Jackson for much or all of 2010.

3900 yards, 27 TDs

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Phillip Rivers is THE value play this year. As others have said, the run defense is degraded. They are relying on a rookie RB to find his way. No VJax means more targets for Gates who should be a monster this year. Rivers will have to throw a lot just to stay in games this year. Attempts will be up, but completion percentage and interceptions will be up too. He will be forced to make plays with receivers that aren't as talented as he's used to. A bit of a hothead, Rivers will need to learn patience with this WR corp. But for fantasy purposes, he will shine.

I like P Rivers for 300/520/58%/4100/28/19

The Chargers are still a dangerous team and Rivers will force the action to try to win some games. I think owning Rivers is going to be a very fantasy friendly proposition this year. He is one of the few truly elite QBs in the game.

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Phillip Rivers is THE value play this year. As others have said, the run defense is degraded. They are relying on a rookie RB to find his way. No VJax means more targets for Gates who should be a monster this year. Rivers will have to throw a lot just to stay in games this year. Attempts will be up, but completion percentage and interceptions will be up too. He will be forced to make plays with receivers that aren't as talented as he's used to. A bit of a hothead, Rivers will need to learn patience with this WR corp. But for fantasy purposes, he will shine.I like P Rivers for 300/520/58%/4100/28/19The Chargers are still a dangerous team and Rivers will force the action to try to win some games. I think owning Rivers is going to be a very fantasy friendly proposition this year. He is one of the few truly elite QBs in the game.

I agree with a lot of what you write but don't get the projection.Rivers' numbers last year were *better* than the numbers you're giving him this year. Last year, he was QB7. This year, he has an ADP of QB7. So how does he get projected for slightly worse numbers, have the same ADP as his fantasy rank last year, and is the value play of the year?
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Phillip Rivers is THE value play this year. As others have said, the run defense is degraded. They are relying on a rookie RB to find his way. No VJax means more targets for Gates who should be a monster this year. Rivers will have to throw a lot just to stay in games this year. Attempts will be up, but completion percentage and interceptions will be up too. He will be forced to make plays with receivers that aren't as talented as he's used to. A bit of a hothead, Rivers will need to learn patience with this WR corp. But for fantasy purposes, he will shine.I like P Rivers for 300/520/58%/4100/28/19The Chargers are still a dangerous team and Rivers will force the action to try to win some games. I think owning Rivers is going to be a very fantasy friendly proposition this year. He is one of the few truly elite QBs in the game.

I agree with a lot of what you write but don't get the projection.Rivers' numbers last year were *better* than the numbers you're giving him this year. Last year, he was QB7. This year, he has an ADP of QB7. So how does he get projected for slightly worse numbers, have the same ADP as his fantasy rank last year, and is the value play of the year?
Well, that is based on the obvious loss of VJax, and McNeil. I felt it was a given that most would expect a regression much worse than I had posted. As of my post, nobody had him close to 4000 yards. If you scroll up, I am probably the most optimistic of anyone regarding Rivers.ETA, I did see someone had him for 3900 yards, so my bad. Still think he is undervalued based on the above opinions.
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Heading into this season I felt Rivers was on a short list of Qb's I would target early (round 3) in a draft. I felt that the SD defense has gotten worse not better than last year. I think anytime you lose a guy like LT, you just don't have a NFL draft and poof, you've replaced him just like that. I think the strength of this team was definately the passing of Rivers to guys like Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and Sproles out of the backfield.

The loss of Jackson for what looks like the majority of the season throws a wrench into my thinking. I don't like the idea of drafting Rivers without his top WR. I don't think he'll slip too far south either in his ADP to reflect his loss either, forcing you to take Rivers about where you would have with Jackson at his side. That kind of thinking just doesn't make sense to me.

3800 yards 28 td's 16 int's

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Philip Rivers had been a consistent performer for the Chargers for the past four years. Solid foundation includes starting all 16 games each year, averaged over 60% completion each year and over 65% the past two, averaged almost 8.0 ypa with 8.8 a year ago, and thrown 2.39 TD per int. His yardage has also climbed from lower 3,000 to over 4,000 for the past two seasons. He has finished as the #8, #15, #3, and #7 QB over that stretch. As the current QB 7 in ADP, he would appear to be a bargain.However, he may be without his top WR target for the past few years, Vincent Jackson. He is definitely out for three games and with a hold-out or trade looming, could be permanently gone. The guys behind V Jax have talent, but not have shown much production. Malcolm Floyd had a career high 45 catches last year, Legedu Naanee has 40 career receptions, Craig Davis, first rounder in 07 has 30 career receptions, and all three combine for 12 career TDs.In addition, the Chargers traded up significantly to draft Ryan Mathews and most projections call for them to place more emphasis on establishing the running game. Even if Mathews is successful as a rookie, he is not expected to have as much of an impact catching the ball as the departed Tomlinson has had in the past.All of these factors seem to spell some decreased production for the CHargers passing attack and in turn, Philip Rivers. He seems to me to be placed at the top of the second tier of QBs which runs from 7 through 12. At this point in the pre-season, it seems that most that want to get a QB early will get Rodgers, P. Manning, Brees, Romo, Schaub, or Brady while the lower members of that second tier (Cutler, Eli Manning, Favre, McNabb, and Flacco) should be as consistent as Rivers in 2010.Philip Rivers 16 gms 300 complete 470 attempts 63.8% 3,666 yards 7.8 ypa 24 TDs and 12 ints with 40 rush yards and 1 TD

I agree with the reasoning laid out here..but I don't think the attempts will decrease by that much. Chargers had 519 pass attempts in 2009 and Rivers completed 65.1% of those(338) for 4,338 yards, 29 TDs, and 10 INTs. I do expect a regression based on VJAX missing significant time or being traded. I don't see the attempts dropping by 50 though. I forecast something like this...just my opinion...515 attempts, 310 completions(61% completion), 3,750 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTsI expect a drop in completion percentage while maintaining the number of attempts from last season. I do think Gates has a huge year. I usually don't take TEs early, but I might this year.
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  • 1 month later...
  • 2 months later...

The Chargers were 23rd in pass attempts last season, and had "only" 972 plays last season. I wouldn't be surprised if San Diego passes a bit more this season, especially if the run defense improves (not sure if that will happen) or the run offense improves (almost a certainty). San Diego passed 519 times last season, and I'd be surprised to see them pass less frequently this year.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2010/1...hiliprivers.php

The Chargers offense is running a ton of plays this year -- partly because their special teams gets them the ball back so quickly. But it's always a good idea to do a sanity check on offensive play numbers for each team for the prior year. Usually teams regress towards the mean. Rivers had been awesome per play for the past few years, and it was only a matter of time before his pass attempt numbers started to climb.

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