BMW was an oversight, which is now fixed. Williiams is still a wait and see for me.
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Go deeps Updated Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)
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The IDP's will be updated within the next couple of weeks.
SSOG
Moderator
First thoughts:Mike Vick: Way too low. Dude's a perennial lock to finish as a fantasy QB1, frequently a high-end QB1. I've got him at 16, and even that's a bit too low- I'll be bumping him up later this week.Eli Manning: Way too high. Michael Vick has produced more VBD than Eli Manning over the last 4 years... and Vick was a backup or out of football entirely for three of those four years! In fact, Mike Vick had more VBD in 2006 than Eli Manning has for his entire career, and it's not even particularly close.Sidney Rice: I don't get why you're moving him up. His timetable hasn't changed. Minnesota brass still isn't confident that he'll be 100% at any point this season, which is why they pushed so hard for VJax. Favre will still be gone next season. Hell, rumor has it that Favre might be gone for the latter half of THIS SEASON if the Vikings don't start winning soon. If anything, I think Sidney Rice might have had more value if the Vikings *HAD* signed VJax. He wouldn't contribute much this season either way, but if the Vikings signed VJax, then they'd likely let Sidney Rice walk, which would mean he wouldn't be catching passes from Tarvaris Jackson next season.Mike Williams: Over Demaryius Thomas? Really?Crabtree: 15 is too low. I'd buy all day long. He's still arguably the best college WR in history, he's still the guy who was so awesome last year without the benefit of camps or preseason. Also, Bowe @ 16 is all kinds of crazy, too. He's getting beat out by Tony Moeaki, here.Hernandez: you're missing the boat on this kid, hard. Rookie TEs simply don't look this good. Obscene talent, obscene opportunity, and it's only two games, but unheard-of production for a rookie. When ranking TEs, I don't care about the guys who'll get me a lot of 10th or 12th place finishes, because those guys are garbage- 10th place finishes are available for a nickle or off the street for free. I'm looking at a TE's top-5 upside, and Hernandez has all kinds of upside.
SSOG
Moderator
Mike Williams is 6'2", 204lbs, and ran a 4.49. Demaryius Thomas is 6'3", 230lbs, and ran a 4.38 forty. In terms of physical ability, Bay-Bay is one of the biggest freaks playing WR today. He's not quite Calvin Johnson... but he's not that far off, either.Mike Williams got kicked out of Syracuse in 2008 for cheating. He later re-enrolled, but got suspended one game halfway through his next season for undisclosed reasons. He posted on Facebook that he was going to quit college. A couple of games later, he made good on his threat and quit Syracuse as a preemptive strike because they were about to hit him with his third suspension. Demaryius Thomas has roundly been praised as one of the highest character and hardest working players in the entire draft (which, indeed, is a large reason why Denver took him over Dez Bryant).
Mike Williams got drafted in the 4th round. Demaryius Thomas was drafted in the 1st round, as the first receiver off the board.
Mike Williams has 7 receptions for 84 yards in two games. Demaryius Thomas had 8 receptions for 97 yards on two drives.
Demaryius is a guy who was supposed to be a high-upside "project WR". He played in perhaps the least pro-style offense in college football, an offense that didn't require him to run NFL routes. On top of that, he's been dealing with a foot injury that lingered and kept him out of most of camps and all of preseason. McDaniels activated him in week 2, but heavily limited his playing time to the point where Demaryius was only in the game for two Denver drives. Basically, you were left with the perfect recipe for a slow start. Not only would it have been forgivable, it was expected. What did Bay-Bay do instead? He went out and put up the 4th best debut by any rookie Wide Receiver in at least the last 15 years (behind only Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, and Eddie Royal). That "project" WR looked polished, ran good routes, and dominated the game when he was in. He was targeted 4 times on key 3rd downs, and he converted all four, posting 57 yards and a TD in the process.
Mike Williams is a very good prospect. Demaryius Thomas is an elite one.
Lash
Footballguy
no i get the facts about DT and own him too, wasn't dismissing him in any way
just i also see Williams as a perennial top15
watch his youtube vid from syracuse, sick stuff in there
what i was referring too is you using MWilliams as the "Really?" comparison with folk like Maclin at #22 and Bowe at #16 and i was wondering if i had drunk too much koolaid on Williams and was not seeing something (although i was grabbing him in may drafts pre-hype so not really caught up in this latest tidal wave)
so i'm saying i woulda been with ya if it read something like this ...
"Dwayne Bowe: Over Demaryius Thomas? Really?" or
"Jerome Maclin: Over Demaryius Thomas? Really?"
but you saying you like MW too just not as much makes me feel better LOL
just i also see Williams as a perennial top15
watch his youtube vid from syracuse, sick stuff in there
what i was referring too is you using MWilliams as the "Really?" comparison with folk like Maclin at #22 and Bowe at #16 and i was wondering if i had drunk too much koolaid on Williams and was not seeing something (although i was grabbing him in may drafts pre-hype so not really caught up in this latest tidal wave)
so i'm saying i woulda been with ya if it read something like this ...
"Dwayne Bowe: Over Demaryius Thomas? Really?" or
"Jerome Maclin: Over Demaryius Thomas? Really?"
but you saying you like MW too just not as much makes me feel better LOL
SSOG
Moderator
I was mostly singling out Mike Williams because they're both rookie WRs and because Williams was the guy who was highlighted in the change log.
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I dont think Michael Vick is a lock for anything, he has played 6 quarters of good football in 3 years. Thats is not nearly enough for me to change my mind about someone who i consider to be one of the worst passers in football. Sure, he will get you points with his legs, but thats not something i want to count on for the next several years. Eli is everything i want in a QB, and he is just now scratching the surface of his potential. Manning is coming off careers high numbers last year, and with the Giants becoming more of a passing team and a great trio of WR's, Manning is a top 10 lock for the next 5-7 seasons. I dont even know if Vick will be in the league three years for now.Rice is one of the 5-7 most talented WR's in the league. He had 89 receptions, 1450 and 12 TD's over the last 16 games in 2009, at the age Crabtree is now. Alot of people say Favre made Rice last year, well, i think it was the other way around. Anyone who has watched the Vikings the past two games would have a hard time disagreeing. The only thing keeping Rice out of my top 5 is his hip injury.Which of the 14 WR's that I have ahead of Crabtree would you have below him? Sure he is talented, but he isnt what i call a cant miss talent. That coupled with his attitude and QB/situation makes me feel like i am being generous having him at 15. The fact that he has looked like garbage in his first two games doent make me feel any better about him.I like both Thomas and Williams, and i dont think either has a significant edge in talent. I do have Thomas with a higher upside score, but right now Williams is the #1 WR on a team with a good young QB. Thomas is still trying to find his spot on a team with Kyle Orton at QB. I agree with your theory on TE's, i just dont share your enthusiasm on Hernandez. You will notice he does have the highest upside score of any TE outside of the top 12 though.The only reason Bowe is getting beat out by Moeaki is because how terrible of a QB Cassel is. With that said though, Bowe will be in for a drop if i dont see something from Cassel soon.Thanks for the feedback! :(SSOG said:
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SSOG
Moderator
Re Vick: You mention that he's played 6 quarters of good football in the last 3 years. How many quarters of bad football has he played over that span?Re Rice: I can understand why someone would have him high. I just don't understand what it was that prompted you to move up. What has changed in the past week that prompted the upward move?Re Crabtree: Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, Sidney Rice. Also, he's only looked bad in one game this season- in week 2, he didn't get the targets, but he played hard and looked good.Re Williams/Thomas: Demaryius will end the season as the #1 WR in Denver. Denver is a much better passing team than TB, and Demaryius will beat out much better WRs to get there (seriously, being the #1 over Sammie Stroughter and Maurice Stovall is hardly a huge point in your favor).Re Hernandez: You're missing the boat, then.I dont think Michael Vick is a lock for anything, he has played 6 quarters of good football in 3 years. Thats is not nearly enough for me to change my mind about someone who i consider to be one of the worst passers in football. Sure, he will get you points with his legs, but thats not something i want to count on for the next several years. Eli is everything i want in a QB, and he is just now scratching the surface of his potential. Manning is coming off careers high numbers last year, and with the Giants becoming more of a passing team and a great trio of WR's, Manning is a top 10 lock for the next 5-7 seasons. I dont even know if Vick will be in the league three years for now.Rice is one of the 5-7 most talented WR's in the league. He had 89 receptions, 1450 and 12 TD's over the last 16 games in 2009, at the age Crabtree is now. Alot of people say Favre made Rice last year, well, i think it was the other way around. Anyone who has watched the Vikings the past two games would have a hard time disagreeing. The only thing keeping Rice out of my top 5 is his hip injury.Which of the 14 WR's that I have ahead of Crabtree would you have below him? Sure he is talented, but he isnt what i call a cant miss talent. That coupled with his attitude and QB/situation makes me feel like i am being generous having him at 15. The fact that he has looked like garbage in his first two games doent make me feel any better about him.I like both Thomas and Williams, and i dont think either has a significant edge in talent. I do have Thomas with a higher upside score, but right now Williams is the #1 WR on a team with a good young QB. Thomas is still trying to find his spot on a team with Kyle Orton at QB. I agree with your theory on TE's, i just dont share your enthusiasm on Hernandez. You will notice he does have the highest upside score of any TE outside of the top 12 though.The only reason Bowe is getting beat out by Moeaki is because how terrible of a QB Cassel is. With that said though, Bowe will be in for a drop if i dont see something from Cassel soon.Thanks for the feedback!
Re Bowe: No, he's getting beat out by Moeaki because he plays for a team with a terrible QB, a head coach that hates him, and because he hasn't been the same since he got busted for PEDs. And it's not like he was Randy Moss before the PED suspension- his best season was 87/1022/7.I moved Rice up because after watching the Vikings the first two weeks, it has become even more clear just how good of a player he is. More importantly, i think i let his injury affect his ranking too much, i had him at #6 before he was pup'ed.I dont disagree with you about Thomas, i just like Williiams as much...i only have them 1 point apart, and thats mostly because i think Williams is more valuable this year.Sure, Bowes best season is 87/1022/7 in hs 2nd year after a 70/995/5 rookie season. His 3rd season, last year, was a bad year no doubt, but he showed up in much better shape this season. The biggest thing going against him now is the same thing that contributed to his bad season last year...Matt Cassel. You say he is being outplayed by a rookie TE, but thats what bad QB's do, they check down to RB's and TE's because they arent good enough to get the ball to WR's.With that line of thinkng, i cant see how you like Crabtree, he is being outplayed by Josh Morgan. Your right about Hernandez, i did miss the boat because i wasnt willing to take him ahead of Gresham, which is where he was going in my rookie drafts. I still feel good about that though.We just straight disagree when it comes to Vick.Re Vick: You mention that he's played 6 quarters of good football in the last 3 years. How many quarters of bad football has he played over that span?Re Rice: I can understand why someone would have him high. I just don't understand what it was that prompted you to move up. What has changed in the past week that prompted the upward move?Re Crabtree: Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, Sidney Rice. Also, he's only looked bad in one game this season- in week 2, he didn't get the targets, but he played hard and looked good.Re Williams/Thomas: Demaryius will end the season as the #1 WR in Denver. Denver is a much better passing team than TB, and Demaryius will beat out much better WRs to get there (seriously, being the #1 over Sammie Stroughter and Maurice Stovall is hardly a huge point in your favor).Re Hernandez: You're missing the boat, then.I dont think Michael Vick is a lock for anything, he has played 6 quarters of good football in 3 years. Thats is not nearly enough for me to change my mind about someone who i consider to be one of the worst passers in football. Sure, he will get you points with his legs, but thats not something i want to count on for the next several years. Eli is everything i want in a QB, and he is just now scratching the surface of his potential. Manning is coming off careers high numbers last year, and with the Giants becoming more of a passing team and a great trio of WR's, Manning is a top 10 lock for the next 5-7 seasons. I dont even know if Vick will be in the league three years for now.Rice is one of the 5-7 most talented WR's in the league. He had 89 receptions, 1450 and 12 TD's over the last 16 games in 2009, at the age Crabtree is now. Alot of people say Favre made Rice last year, well, i think it was the other way around. Anyone who has watched the Vikings the past two games would have a hard time disagreeing. The only thing keeping Rice out of my top 5 is his hip injury.Which of the 14 WR's that I have ahead of Crabtree would you have below him? Sure he is talented, but he isnt what i call a cant miss talent. That coupled with his attitude and QB/situation makes me feel like i am being generous having him at 15. The fact that he has looked like garbage in his first two games doent make me feel any better about him.I like both Thomas and Williams, and i dont think either has a significant edge in talent. I do have Thomas with a higher upside score, but right now Williams is the #1 WR on a team with a good young QB. Thomas is still trying to find his spot on a team with Kyle Orton at QB. I agree with your theory on TE's, i just dont share your enthusiasm on Hernandez. You will notice he does have the highest upside score of any TE outside of the top 12 though.The only reason Bowe is getting beat out by Moeaki is because how terrible of a QB Cassel is. With that said though, Bowe will be in for a drop if i dont see something from Cassel soon.Thanks for the feedback!Re Bowe: No, he's getting beat out by Moeaki because he plays for a team with a terrible QB, a head coach that hates him, and because he hasn't been the same since he got busted for PEDs. And it's not like he was Randy Moss before the PED suspension- his best season was 87/1022/7.
CaptainHook
Footballguy
youre certainly wrong on vick.
i can understand where youre coming from on everything else and dont necessarily agree but dont think anything else is too out of line.
i can understand where youre coming from on everything else and dont necessarily agree but dont think anything else is too out of line.
I may be wrong about Vick, but im not sure he finishes this year as the starter.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What basis do you have for ranking Crabtree ahead of Rice? Pedigree? Draft status? Aside from the injury concern, Rice essentially is, what we hope Crabtree can be. He looked like a top 5 WR over the 2nd half of the season and into the playoff. He is only 24, and has already made it over the WR hump - not everybody does. Based on his skill-set, he should be a top Redzone target for years, and like Fitz, won't need a top QB to be a top WR. On an NFL level, I can't think of anything that Crabtree does better than Rice. I can think of a lot of things that Rice does better, including, simply enough, playing football. Only one game? You mean one game out of two? And it is not like he looked great in the 2nd game. He had the one nice catch, juke, spin sequence, which does show some of what he can do. But number of targets can be an indicator too. Even if we assume that the bad start is just that and nothing more, he still has a lot red flags that could be bust characteristics. If you want to put him over guys like Colston, Jennings, and Nicks, due to his ceiling, in comparison, I can understand that. If you want to put him above Wayne due to age, I can understand that too. But I can not think of a single reason, outside of the injury concerns, to put Crabtree anywhere near Sidney.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
The hip injury is a huge factor, imo.... huge.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Based on what? Not to sound rude at all. Just wanting to know if you have any history or knowledge that suggests one be worried, such as examples of previous players with the same injury.
Exactly, if Crabtree did this year what Rice did last year, he would be everyones #1 dynasty WR. I understand people are going to be concerned about the hip, but nobody was talking about Rice as a top 10 WR before the injury.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Yup. Rice doesn't get the respect he deserves, and I am just fine with that. I started a thread during the offseason, stating that Rice should be drafted much higher than guys like Roddy White, Marques Colston and Greg Jennings. My reasoning was that he will give you the same production and is 3-5 years younger than these guys. I got a good deal of pushback from people saying (A) he won't have a good QB in a year and (B) he has only done it for one season. I find it odd when I read the same people advocating Crabtree who hasn't done it at all, and doesn't have a good QB this season.I pushed him down a good deal (3 slots) in my rankings due to the injury. I honestly haven't done the research on the surgery, like I should have, so I don't know how it affects him moving forward, long term. But before the injury I had him rated him equal to or above everyone outside of the big 3.Go deep said:
SSOG
Moderator
I know you didn't mean for your post to come off as confrontational, but I have to say, it did a little bit. When I read "What basis do you have for ranking Crabtree ahead of Rice?", how I interpret that is that you think that there's no rational or logical reason anyone could possibly find to put Crabtree over Rice. And that's simply not the case. There are a lot of rational and logical reasons to put Rice over Crabtree... but you know what? There are a lot of rational and logical reasons to put Crabtree over Rice, too.Michael Crabtree was the best WR in college football history. He was a top-10 draft pick. Despite missing all of TCs and preseason, Crabtree had an exceptionally good rookie season. Michael Crabtree had never played a single snap at WR- at any level- prior to 2007. The dude is still learning the position. He's just scratching the surface of his potential. Has he shown as much on the field as Sidney Rice? Absolutely not, but you know what? I can rank Player A over Player B, even if Player A hasn't done as much on the field. Especially if I think that Player A is more talented. And that's not meant as a knock against Sidney Rice, it's meant as a compliment for Michael Crabtree.Rice had an amazing season, but there's a huge, huge, HUGE difference between the claim "Rice has had one season of what we hope Crabtree can be" and "Rice is what we hope Crabtree can be". Tons of receivers have had phenomenal seasons. Braylon Edwards had 1300/16, but I wouldn't say he's what we hope Crabtree can be. Rice gave us reason to hope that he can be what we hope Crabtree can be, but at the end of the day, I think Crabtree is the better talent, and after Favre is gone, I think Crabtree might even be in the better situation, to boot.Don't get me wrong, I'm a firm believer in Sidney Rice's talent. I believe he has a lot of skills that will make him a hugely appealing target for whoever lines up under center, long after #4 is gone. He's not without his risks, though. His hip injury is a huge deal. We don't know how he's going to recover from that. For that matter, we don't know WHEN he's going to recover from that- just look at Anthony Gonzalez last year to get an idea of how exact timetables for returning frequently wind up being. We don't know how Minnesota's QB situation is going to shake out. We know that Minnesota was pushing HARD to acquire Vincent Jackson, which I don't think reflects well on Sidney Rice. There's a lot of uncertainty. He had a fantastic season last year, but at the end of the day, I think Michael Crabtree is more talented, so I have Crabtree rated over Rice.Also, no, I didn't mean "one game out of two". I meant "one game". I don't care how many games have been played during the season, one game is one game is one game is one game is one game is one game is one game. And while Crabtree's stats still weren't good in week 2, I saw a receiver who was playing hard, getting open, throwing some strong blocks, and who flashed elite skills on his one reception.
After not updating last week(i needed a week off from fantasy football) i just finished updating the offense. I tweeked some IDP, but i have alot of work left to do on it.
Here are some notable changes since week 2:
QB:
Rivers moves up ahead of Brees to the #3 spot.
Big Ben moves up to the #8 spot.
Sanchez up to #16
Orton up to the #17 spot
Brady down to the #12 spot
Eli down to #11
Palmer down to #19
Henne down to #22
RB:
Jamaal Charles moves up to #7
Bradshaw up to #16
Foster and Lynch both move from the mid 20's to the early 20's
Hillis moves up inside the top 30
Jimmy Starks up to #32
Lagarette Blount debuts on the list at #44
Ray Rice down to #6
Shonn Greene, Knowshon Moreno and Micheal Turner all move down from the top 20 to the mid 20's.
WR:
Roddy White jumps into the top 5
Boldin up into the top 20
Austin Collie up to #31
Luis Murphy up to #37
Clayton up to #39
Brandon Lloyd up to 43
Fitzgerald falls out of the top 5
Colston down to #14
Simms-Walker down to #38
TE:
Gates and Finley were always the top 2, but the gap has become even larger between them and the next tier.
Dustin Keller up to #5
Hernandez up to #9
Moeaki up to 15
Pettigrew up to 21
Witten drops to #6
Heath Miller down to #18
Those are just some of the changes, and im sure i might have missed some others. Let me know if you see something that looks off, or what changes/rankings you like or dont agree with.
Here are some notable changes since week 2:
QB:
Rivers moves up ahead of Brees to the #3 spot.
Big Ben moves up to the #8 spot.
Sanchez up to #16
Orton up to the #17 spot
Brady down to the #12 spot
Eli down to #11
Palmer down to #19
Henne down to #22
RB:
Jamaal Charles moves up to #7
Bradshaw up to #16
Foster and Lynch both move from the mid 20's to the early 20's
Hillis moves up inside the top 30
Jimmy Starks up to #32
Lagarette Blount debuts on the list at #44
Ray Rice down to #6
Shonn Greene, Knowshon Moreno and Micheal Turner all move down from the top 20 to the mid 20's.
WR:
Roddy White jumps into the top 5
Boldin up into the top 20
Austin Collie up to #31
Luis Murphy up to #37
Clayton up to #39
Brandon Lloyd up to 43
Fitzgerald falls out of the top 5
Colston down to #14
Simms-Walker down to #38
TE:
Gates and Finley were always the top 2, but the gap has become even larger between them and the next tier.
Dustin Keller up to #5
Hernandez up to #9
Moeaki up to 15
Pettigrew up to 21
Witten drops to #6
Heath Miller down to #18
Those are just some of the changes, and im sure i might have missed some others. Let me know if you see something that looks off, or what changes/rankings you like or dont agree with.
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SSOG
Moderator
Honestly, I don't even know how you justify that Arian Foster rating other than sheer pig-headed stubbornness.
I get that your argument is that Foster is not a transcendent talent and he could quickly find himself replaced. I just don't get how you could justify Marshawn Lynch over him? Lynch was the #3 RB on Buffalo's depth chart at points, behind the immortal Fred Jackson! Lynch was so good that Buffalo spent a top-10 draft pick at his position and traded him away. And Matt Forte? You want to talk about the definition of a replaceable talent, look at Matt "2.7 ypc" Forte. The only difference is that Foster is actually in a good situation and actually producing right now. You've got Arian Foster, a "fungible talent" (in your opinion) in perhaps the best situation in the league and a near-lock for a top-10 finish, just a couple of slots ahead of Knowshon Moreno, a fungible and injured talent on the worst rushing offense in the entire NFL. Even given your stated premise, your ranking of Foster makes absolutely 0 sense. The only explanation I can see is that you're just digging in your heels and refusing to admit you were wrong on him. I mean, would you seriously trade Arian Foster for MARSHAWN FREAKING LYNCH right now? Seriously?!?!
I get that your argument is that Foster is not a transcendent talent and he could quickly find himself replaced. I just don't get how you could justify Marshawn Lynch over him? Lynch was the #3 RB on Buffalo's depth chart at points, behind the immortal Fred Jackson! Lynch was so good that Buffalo spent a top-10 draft pick at his position and traded him away. And Matt Forte? You want to talk about the definition of a replaceable talent, look at Matt "2.7 ypc" Forte. The only difference is that Foster is actually in a good situation and actually producing right now. You've got Arian Foster, a "fungible talent" (in your opinion) in perhaps the best situation in the league and a near-lock for a top-10 finish, just a couple of slots ahead of Knowshon Moreno, a fungible and injured talent on the worst rushing offense in the entire NFL. Even given your stated premise, your ranking of Foster makes absolutely 0 sense. The only explanation I can see is that you're just digging in your heels and refusing to admit you were wrong on him. I mean, would you seriously trade Arian Foster for MARSHAWN FREAKING LYNCH right now? Seriously?!?!
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Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I'd rather have Orton than Eli. I don't love the kid but it's hard to argue with what McDaniels is doing.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Brandon Tate missing.
SSOG
Moderator
First off, you're underrating Foster's talent if you think he's one of the 10-12 worst RBs in the NFL. Second off, you're guilty of a major oversight if you don't give him the teensiest tiniest boost based on the fact that he's, you know, kind of sort of a top-10 RB this year.You never answered my question. Would you seriously trade Arian Foster for Marshawn Lynch straight up right now?
Your ranking of Foster is unfortunate in that it essentially elimantes any credibility from the rest of your rankings, no matter how spot on they may be. There are times to dig your heels in and bang your chest and continue to say you are right about a player and then there are times to concede and admit you completely missed the boat and adjust accordingly. This situation is the latter, not the former. The longer you continue to adamantly put yourself in the position of digging your heels in, the more foolish your rankings as a whole begin to look.Even if you were to rank Fitz based more on situation than talent, how far would he realistically fall? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 places at the most? He would still be top 10 for sure. You have Foster ranked IN THE TWENTIES! How on earth can you possibly justify that there are over 20 running backs exhibiting more talent and in a better situation?! Like I said, it is unfortunate, as it makes your rankings look far too biased overall and thus detracts from their credibility greatly.
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I would rather have no credibity that go against what i believe. I just dont trust players who are that dependant on their current situation for their success.
I would understand this if you didn't contradict yourself throughout your rankings. You have a love affair with Sidney Rice, yet seem to completely and totally disregard the fact that his situation may, in fact, be inflating his production greatly. It's entirely possible he is every bit as good as you say, but why is it ok to throw away his situational advantage and disregard it entirely, yet hold Arian Foster so accountable for it? Brett Favre has a proven track record of making receivers, just as Kubiak has a proven track record for having productive running backs. What makes 1 not worth taking into account and the other so ultra important?You may be totally right on both Foster and Rice in the end, but this seems like the very definition of using bad process in your rankings. Even if you come out correct, as SSOG loves to point out, bad process/good outcome is among the worst possible outcomes as it will lead you to continue to use bad process.
**Edited to add that I do appreciate the effort it takes to compile rankings and update them regularly. Just because I or others may disagree with some of your rankings and we argue about it here doesn't take away from the fact that it is appreciated that you do the rankings in the first place. My last 2 posts came off more combative than I wanted, so I thought this disclaimer was in order.
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Except this couldnt be more wrong. Rice was only 20 when he came into the league. Most WR's dont put up great numbers during their first year or two, especially yong ones that had some injury issues. Did Favre help last year, sure, but i think that had more to do with having a QB that was not Jackson than it did with being Favre. Look at Favres numbers this year without Rice, is it a coincidece that Berrian or Harvin are not putting up Rice type numbers this year? Fact is my ranking of Rice has nothing to do with situation, it has to do with talent. Unlike Foster, i would likely have Rice ranked as high or higher if he played for most other teams. Can anybody honestly say they would still have Foster ranked where they do if he played for ANY other team?
Would I have him as a top 8 running back, as I currently do? No, I probably would not. Would I have him in the 20's? No, I definitely would not. He would be somewhere in the low to mid teens, most likely. I think it is pretty clear to ANYONE that has watched him play a significant amount this season that he is more talented than to just be labaled as a pure situational player.
If you look at my rankings, you will see there is only a 5 point difference between the #22 Rb and the #15 RB. So i dont have those players ranked that far apart.
I have watched most, if not all of the Texans games dating back to last year. Foster has looked good, but he has done so against inferior defenses. When doing my rankings, I try to guage a players talent on a 1-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80, 81-100 scale. I feel good about having Foster in the 41-60 scale. Of course when you add that to the best situation in football for a RB, you are going to get top 10 numbers. Problem i have with that is a 41-60 player is relatively easy to replace.
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SSOG
Moderator
I hate this reasoning. Judge each ranking on its own individual merits.
You seem to have no trouble trusting Matt Forte, though, and he's an inferior talent in an inferior situation.
What if you couldn't? What if you were playing in a league with 11 other guys who thought exactly like you, and the only offer on the table was Foster for Lynch? That whole "Oh, I know I could get more" line is a worthless copout. If it came down to it, would you ever be willing to put your money where your mouth is and trade Arian Foster for Marshawn Lynch straight up? Or is that a ranking so ridiculous even you wouldn't buy it?When I do my rankings, I'm always asking "would I trade Player X for Player Y straight up?". The answer to that question is always either "yes" or "it's time to change my rankings". Those are the only two possible answers to that question.
Im kind of on the fence with Forte. Your right, he is not a great runner, but he is as good as a WR as most WR's in the league. Thats goes a long way in a Martz offense, even in non-ppr's. it also gives him some job security, even if he is only an average runner.
As far as trading Foster for Lynch, that would depend. As you can see, i have them ranked the same. If i were in a win now situation, i would probably hold onto Foster. If i were building for the future, i would likely deal him for Lynch.
I try to ask myself if i would trade player A fo player B when doing my rankings, but its not always that easy, as im sure you know. Alot of things factor in, one of which is perceived value. Obviously since most everyone is going to have Foster ranked higher than me, i would be silly to not take perceived value into account when trading him.
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Toads
Footballguy
Not only that, they are:1) Totally Expert,Marino13 said:
2) Totally Unbiased, and
3) Subjective in nature.
I mean, where do you rank Montario Hardesty? Ahead of Hillis, behind Hillis, a Hillis equal?
For that matter, where do you rank a guy like Peyton Hillis", who just flat manages to get it done despite there being to way that he can do what he does?
I checked in on my latest "Expert Rankings" for the position and notes on Hardesty and Hillis and Hillis had some type of note indicating he wasn't the "lead back of the future." Hardesty, meanwhile, was supposed to be ordained for greatness and was ranked higher, by a lot, than Hillis, despite having a history of knee problems, and then having bad knees, and doing abosoultely zero to support this "feeling" of studliness.
It remains a sport of "gut feelings" and if everybody's thinking the same then the dregs fall to the guys that act on that feeling....turning dust into GOLD!
I mean how many guys were willing to hang their hat on Austin Collie in the preseason this year? Even though the stats were there and the performance was there it was unknown time because of some injured bench warrior (Gonzales) who was supposed to the "the Man" and if it wasn't him then is was Garcon (who dropped the game winner in last year's SB) who was the great hope.
Contrary Opinions often lead to Gold Mines in this sport....find 'um and follow 'um.
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If FBG's updates their dynasty rankings at some point since the start of the season as a sanity check of "experts" then we wouldn't have to rely on random posters efforts as a sanity check of our own opinions. I applaud him for taking a stab at it ... something we are paying for this season has yet to do.
Thats certainly part of why players are adjusted, injuries, trades, etc also affect player rankings.
Im not sure i get what you are trying to say here?Not only that, they are:1) Totally Expert,
2) Totally Unbiased, and
3) Subjective in nature.
I mean, where do you rank Montario Hardesty? Ahead of Hillis, behind Hillis, a Hillis equal?
For that matter, where do you rank a guy like Peyton Hillis", who just flat manages to get it done despite there being to way that he can do what he does?
I checked in on my latest "Expert Rankings" for the position and notes on Hardesty and Hillis and Hillis had some type of note indicating he wasn't the "lead back of the future." Hardesty, meanwhile, was supposed to be ordained for greatness and was ranked higher, by a lot, than Hillis, despite having a history of knee problems, and then having bad knees, and doing abosoultely zero to support this "feeling" of studliness.
It remains a sport of "gut feelings" and if everybody's thinking the same then the dregs fall to the guys that act on that feeling....turning dust into GOLD!
I mean how many guys were willing to hang their hat on Austin Collie in the preseason this year? Even though the stats were there and the performance was there it was unknown time because of some injured bench warrior (Gonzales) who was supposed to the "the Man" and if it wasn't him then is was Garcon (who dropped the game winner in last year's SB) who was the great hope.
Contrary Opinions often lead to Gold Mines in this sport....find 'um and follow 'um.
Are you saying ranking players is worthless?
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
No Grant in RB top 50 = FAIL
Grant as a starting RB ever again = FAIL
pghrob
Hail to the Chief
Kind of watching this exchange and am thinking how GoDeep would have rated Emmit Smith and Terrel Davis back when they were on the front end of their perennial seasons as top rbs. Some have argued that they were not the most gifted backs but rather good backs in good situations. Looking back (way back in the case of those two) would you have ranked them lower until some point at which they showed that they were not going to be unseated as their team's top rb?
