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Go deeps Updated Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

Go deep said:
fdctrumpet said:
Thanks for rankings, go deep...I always enjoy them!
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No problem, and if anyone has any comments on anyone other than Vick, i would love to hear them. :lmao:
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With the exception of rookies, b/c I would never put one as high as you have Green or many people had Mathews last year. A few names jump out at me as too high............RB- Stewart & Best- talent is definitely there for both of them, but neither is a guy that I would want to take a chance on as a Top 10 fantasy back. WR- Harvin, Britt, Avery, & Austin- Harvin I donn't see as a legit #1 WR and I don't think that he and Rice will get enough looks to validate their rankings in the Top 14. Britt is immensely talented, but I am not sure that they will throw the ball enough for hiom to become a true #1. Avery is probably this high by default w/ Bradford, but coming off of an injury and my expectation of them bringing someone in greatly dampens my expectations. I put Austin on this list only because I like Bryant more, but don't see the Cowboys with an offense that will validate 2 Top 10 WRsOh, and just to be fair, as I am not a supporter. I would have Vick up at #10, as I think that his short term value outways what I view as a short remaining career.
 
fruity pebbles said:
You have guys like Eli, Flacco and Cutler ranked ahead of Vick, thats what they have to do with it. Those were 250 point type guys and will be in the forseeable future. Vick outscored them by 100 points and missed 5 games. He doubled them on a PPG basis. Id take two years of Vick and then worry about replacing him over those guys any day. He can win you a championship. Those guys are easily replaceable, dime a dozen types.
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Eli was 5th in passing yards and 4th in TD passes this year. Plus he was without his top 2 WR's for multiple games. How would you easily replace that kind of production a year or two from now? Also, if you are going to have Vick as your starter for the next 2 years, you better have a good backup.
 
Curious about the foster ranking as well....

I have him in my top 5 because kubiak is returning. Philips coaching the defense will improve houston immensely and keep kubiak in town much longer than without him. Foster has to be ranked higher with those factors in play.

 
Go deep said:
fruity pebbles said:
You have guys like Eli, Flacco and Cutler ranked ahead of Vick, thats what they have to do with it. Those were 250 point type guys and will be in the forseeable future. Vick outscored them by 100 points and missed 5 games. He doubled them on a PPG basis. Id take two years of Vick and then worry about replacing him over those guys any day. He can win you a championship. Those guys are easily replaceable, dime a dozen types.
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Eli was 5th in passing yards and 4th in TD passes this year. Plus he was without his top 2 WR's for multiple games. How would you easily replace that kind of production a year or two from now? Also, if you are going to have Vick as your starter for the next 2 years, you better have a good backup.
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Eli also had 25 INTs. He was 10th this year in scoring, 15th last year and 14th the year before that. Its not hard getting QBs in the 15 range.
 
Domination said:
Go deep said:
fdctrumpet said:
Thanks for rankings, go deep...I always enjoy them!
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No problem, and if anyone has any comments on anyone other than Vick, i would love to hear them. :thumbup:
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With the exception of rookies, b/c I would never put one as high as you have Green or many people had Mathews last year. A few names jump out at me as too high............RB- Stewart & Best- talent is definitely there for both of them, but neither is a guy that I would want to take a chance on as a Top 10 fantasy back. WR- Harvin, Britt, Avery, & Austin- Harvin I donn't see as a legit #1 WR and I don't think that he and Rice will get enough looks to validate their rankings in the Top 14. Britt is immensely talented, but I am not sure that they will throw the ball enough for hiom to become a true #1. Avery is probably this high by default w/ Bradford, but coming off of an injury and my expectation of them bringing someone in greatly dampens my expectations. I put Austin on this list only because I like Bryant more, but don't see the Cowboys with an offense that will validate 2 Top 10 WRsOh, and just to be fair, as I am not a supporter. I would have Vick up at #10, as I think that his short term value outways what I view as a short remaining career.
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You dont put rookies high but you like Bryant more than Austin? :shrug: I was going to take the time and explian each of your concerns individually, but then i noticed the answers are all basically the same. My rankings are heavily based on talent and not as much on situation. With Britt, teams do not need to throw alot to support a top 10 WR, just look at the Chiefs this season. Even if the Rams draft a WR in the first round, Avery will still be on oof the two starting WR's, and with Bradfod at QB, thats more enough to warrant a top 40 WR ranking.
 
Any reason for bumping Spiller?

Probably too low on the next 2 rookie WRs.

Fitzpatrick shouldn't be over Tebow.

Your rookie QB cluster is pretty noncontroversial - you don't differentiate any of them. I'd put Newton higher. Like right behind Tebow. I would definitely trade Cassel or Fitzpatrick for Newton.

Surprised you dropped Orton so low given he is already being shopped. Not that I disagree with the ranking, it just seems inconsistent with your previous evaluation of Orton.

 
fdctrumpet said:
Curious about the foster ranking as well....I have him in my top 5 because kubiak is returning. Philips coaching the defense will improve houston immensely and keep kubiak in town much longer than without him. Foster has to be ranked higher with those factors in play.
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Kubiak staying was definitely a boost for Fosters value, which is the only reason he didnt fall down my rankings. In redraft, he would probably be in my top 5 RB's, but i view Foster as nothing more than an average talent. Even with Kubiak coming back, i dont think Foster will see almost 400 touches next season like he did this year, especially with Tate coming back from injury.
 
thriftyrocker said:
Any reason for bumping Spiller?Probably too low on the next 2 rookie WRs. Fitzpatrick shouldn't be over Tebow. Your rookie QB cluster is pretty noncontroversial - you don't differentiate any of them. I'd put Newton higher. Like right behind Tebow. I would definitely trade Cassel or Fitzpatrick for Newton.Surprised you dropped Orton so low given he is already being shopped. Not that I disagree with the ranking, it just seems inconsistent with your previous evaluation of Orton.
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Spiller got a bump because Jackson is 30, and Spiller should see significantly more touches in 2011. I am not a big fan of any of the QB's coming out now that Luck is staying. Newton probably has the most upside, but he also has the biggest shot at being a bust. Either way, i dont think any of the QB's are worthy of a top 10 pick, so i wouldnt take any of them over Fitzpatrick. That goes for Tebow as well. I havnt seen anything from Tebow that makes me think any differently than i did before he was drafted a round too high this past April. He will make a nice backup, gimmicky player, team leader, but i dont think he is an NFL starting QB.Alot of people are missing the boat on Fitzpatrick. He came into a hopeless situation this year in Buffalo and turned the Bills into a respectable team without much around him. Fitzpatrick was the 8th best QB in PPG this season, and the team has nowhere to go but up.
 
fruity pebbles said:
Go deep said:
fruity pebbles said:
You have guys like Eli, Flacco and Cutler ranked ahead of Vick, thats what they have to do with it. Those were 250 point type guys and will be in the forseeable future. Vick outscored them by 100 points and missed 5 games. He doubled them on a PPG basis. Id take two years of Vick and then worry about replacing him over those guys any day. He can win you a championship. Those guys are easily replaceable, dime a dozen types.
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Eli was 5th in passing yards and 4th in TD passes this year. Plus he was without his top 2 WR's for multiple games. How would you easily replace that kind of production a year or two from now? Also, if you are going to have Vick as your starter for the next 2 years, you better have a good backup.
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Eli also had 25 INTs. He was 10th this year in scoring, 15th last year and 14th the year before that. Its not hard getting QBs in the 15 range.
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Eli has finished 10th in each of the last two seasons. With a young WR corps of Nicks, Smith and Manningham, i would think thats his floor over the next 5 years. In a 12 or 14 team league, there is value in a guy i can count on for top 10 numbers 16 games a season. He may not win me alot of games, but he wont lose me any. If you want to count on Michal Vick to stay healthy, out of prison, and putting up career high numbers at the age of 31+, be my guest, i just prefer to go a different route.
 
thriftyrocker said:
Any reason for bumping Spiller?Probably too low on the next 2 rookie WRs. Fitzpatrick shouldn't be over Tebow. Your rookie QB cluster is pretty noncontroversial - you don't differentiate any of them. I'd put Newton higher. Like right behind Tebow. I would definitely trade Cassel or Fitzpatrick for Newton.Surprised you dropped Orton so low given he is already being shopped. Not that I disagree with the ranking, it just seems inconsistent with your previous evaluation of Orton.
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Orton is a better QB than people give him credit for, but his FF numbers will only be as good as his situation.
 
You're the first that I've seen that's is high on Blackmon. I like him, too but only see negative things written about him. Can you say what you like about him?

 
Disagree Newton is the biggest chance of being a bust. Gabbert, Locker, and/or Mallett could easily look Claussenian and be worthless by November. My questions on Locker and Mallet are a lot more substantial than those on Newton. Like Claussen, I'd probably avoid those 2 guys in 2QB drafts as well. Like Vince and Tebow, Newton will gut out a few wins just based on ability and retain "what if he puts it all together" upside for a few years, even if he has a lot of trouble adapting. And that's a worst case scenario.

 
Go deep said:
fruity pebbles said:
Go deep said:
fruity pebbles said:
You have guys like Eli, Flacco and Cutler ranked ahead of Vick, thats what they have to do with it. Those were 250 point type guys and will be in the forseeable future. Vick outscored them by 100 points and missed 5 games. He doubled them on a PPG basis. Id take two years of Vick and then worry about replacing him over those guys any day. He can win you a championship. Those guys are easily replaceable, dime a dozen types.
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Eli was 5th in passing yards and 4th in TD passes this year. Plus he was without his top 2 WR's for multiple games. How would you easily replace that kind of production a year or two from now? Also, if you are going to have Vick as your starter for the next 2 years, you better have a good backup.
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Eli also had 25 INTs. He was 10th this year in scoring, 15th last year and 14th the year before that. Its not hard getting QBs in the 15 range.
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Eli has finished 10th in each of the last two seasons. With a young WR corps of Nicks, Smith and Manningham, i would think thats his floor over the next 5 years. In a 12 or 14 team league, there is value in a guy i can count on for top 10 numbers 16 games a season. He may not win me alot of games, but he wont lose me any. If you want to count on Michal Vick to stay healthy, out of prison, and putting up career high numbers at the age of 31+, be my guest, i just prefer to go a different route.
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Eli had quite a few stinkers this year, so I disagree that he won't lose you any games. Pretty sure Vick won several people their leagues. Which would you rather have, a guy who can single handedly win your league for 2-3 years, or a guy who "may not lose" it for you for the next 5-6?I don't know anyone who would trade Vick for Eli straight up right now, even with the concerns.
 
fruity pebbles said:
Go deep said:
cheese said:
Go deep said:
cheese said:
You explained the overall Vick ranking about him being in a pack of QBs that were all close together, but what I really don't understand is his upside score. His upside is to be what he was when healthy this year, and thats the #1 QB in fantasy. You might not think he will do it again, but he has done it and certainly could do it again and for several years. I don't see how anyone has a higher upside than that realistically, and you have him between Bradford and Stafford on upside. I think you should reconsider that part of his score.

Thanks again for sharing your opinions and being cool about challenges to them.
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The upside and downside score is what i think the guys potential dynasty score is 1 year from today. In other words, i dont see myself giving him a score any higher than his upside score one year from now, and no lower than his downside score. A big gap in a players upside and downside score means they are more high risk/high reward. Guys with small gaps are safer bets, the S.S. number reflects that score. Players with higher "11" scores than dynasty scores are guys i think have more future value than current, and the opposite is true for guys with lower "11" scores than current dynasty scores.

Hope that helps.
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It does help. Sorry if you've had to explain that several times earlier in the thread.I think we're closer now than I previously believed. I realize he's already the biggest upside/downside variance on your rankings, but in my mind its even higher than that. If he repeats 2010 in 2011, I just can't see having 4 guys or more ahead of him. For instance, if he does that, what could Bradford possibly do that could justify him being ranked ahead of Vick?
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Bradfords upside is Peyton Manning, 15 years of top5 Qb production. Vick will be 31 next year, and as a running QB, has at best 2-3 years of good production left.
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That's the thing, he doesnt have to be a running QB to put up top 5 numbers. Last 8 games of the season he put up 2200 yards and 15 TDs throwing the ball. The running numbers over the next 2-3 years simply put him in the running for the #1 overall player.
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I strongly disagree with this. If he's not AT LEAST a serious threat to run, defenses would play him much differently and he'd not be nearly as successful as he was this year.
 
omahabrad said:
You're the first that I've seen that's is high on Blackmon. I like him, too but only see negative things written about him. Can you say what you like about him?
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Strong WR, with pretty good size and speed. Great at getting seperation, good hands, run after the catch, just a natural WR who makes it look easy. He would likely be a top 10 pick if not for his off field issues.
 
humpback said:
Go deep said:
fruity pebbles said:
Go deep said:
fruity pebbles said:
You have guys like Eli, Flacco and Cutler ranked ahead of Vick, thats what they have to do with it. Those were 250 point type guys and will be in the forseeable future. Vick outscored them by 100 points and missed 5 games. He doubled them on a PPG basis. Id take two years of Vick and then worry about replacing him over those guys any day. He can win you a championship. Those guys are easily replaceable, dime a dozen types.
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Eli was 5th in passing yards and 4th in TD passes this year. Plus he was without his top 2 WR's for multiple games. How would you easily replace that kind of production a year or two from now?

Also, if you are going to have Vick as your starter for the next 2 years, you better have a good backup.
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Eli also had 25 INTs. He was 10th this year in scoring, 15th last year and 14th the year before that. Its not hard getting QBs in the 15 range.
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Eli has finished 10th in each of the last two seasons. With a young WR corps of Nicks, Smith and Manningham, i would think thats his floor over the next 5 years. In a 12 or 14 team league, there is value in a guy i can count on for top 10 numbers 16 games a season. He may not win me alot of games, but he wont lose me any.If you want to count on Michal Vick to stay healthy, out of prison, and putting up career high numbers at the age of 31+, be my guest, i just prefer to go a different route.
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Eli had quite a few stinkers this year, so I disagree that he won't lose you any games. Pretty sure Vick won several people their leagues. Which would you rather have, a guy who can single handedly win your league for 2-3 years, or a guy who "may not lose" it for you for the next 5-6?I don't know anyone who would trade Vick for Eli straight up right now, even with the concerns.
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"Me any" should say "me many", either way, its not so much my liking of Eli as it is my dislike of Vick. Ive explained in this thread why i dont want anything to do with him in dynasty leagues, at least as a top 10 QB. I will point out again that i dont put any more importance in the upcoming season as i do 4 seasons from now. For those who care more about the upcoming season more than other seasons, Vick may be your guy(Although i wouldnt feel to safe with that either).

 
I didn't get a chance to watch James Starks yesterday and was only able to see a couple highlight runs. Do you think he looked legit or was he just able to put up good numbers because the Eagles were focusing so much on the passing game?

(and if someone answered thier text messages I would already know the answer to this...) :lmao:

 
I will point out again that i dont put any more importance in the upcoming season as i do 4 seasons from now.
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this seems erroneous. the next season is much easier to predict. winning next season does not preclude winning in 4 seasons as much as vice versa.
 
Go deep said:
omahabrad said:
You're the first that I've seen that's is high on Blackmon. I like him, too but only see negative things written about him. Can you say what you like about him?
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Strong WR, with pretty good size and speed. Great at getting seperation, good hands, run after the catch, just a natural WR who makes it look easy. He would likely be a top 10 pick if not for his off field issues.
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I agree on Blackmon. I have him in the 30s for Dynasty WRs. I see a physical WR that has a lot of YAC ability. I see him going low enough in the draft that he will go to a decent QB/team combo that will allow him to succeed.
 
I do know that it doesn't matter if you have Vick #6 or #15 in your personal QB rankings because someone in an initial draft will take him higher than that, making the difference in your rankings irrelevant. SSOG said once that the most important players in your rankings are the ones that are higher than most or the rest of the league/owners because those will be the guys you get the most often as others would not be thinking of them seriously at the point in the draft where you will select them. I think the concept applies to situations like the one being discussed with Vick.

 
fdctrumpet said:
I do know that it doesn't matter if you have Vick #6 or #15 in your personal QB rankings because someone in an initial draft will take him higher than that, making the difference in your rankings irrelevant. SSOG said once that the most important players in your rankings are the ones that are higher than most or the rest of the league/owners because those will be the guys you get the most often as others would not be thinking of them seriously at the point in the draft where you will select them. I think the concept applies to situations like the one being discussed with Vick.
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I agree with that, assuming you are using the rankings for a draft.
 
Go deep said:
humpback said:
Eli had quite a few stinkers this year, so I disagree that he won't lose you any games. Pretty sure Vick won several people their leagues. Which would you rather have, a guy who can single handedly win your league for 2-3 years, or a guy who "may not lose" it for you for the next 5-6?

I don't know anyone who would trade Vick for Eli straight up right now, even with the concerns.
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"Me any" should say "me many", either way, its not so much my liking of Eli as it is my dislike of Vick. Ive explained in this thread why i dont want anything to do with him in dynasty leagues, at least as a top 10 QB. I will point out again that i dont put any more importance in the upcoming season as i do 4 seasons from now. For those who care more about the upcoming season more than other seasons, Vick may be your guy(Although i wouldnt feel to safe with that either).
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That's better, but still- most QBs in that 8-15ish range are in the same boat- they won't lose you many games, but they won't win you many either. That's why they aren't very valuable, even if they are young- they don't provide you with any advantage. You can find a few QBs off the WW who can approximate Eli's production most years, you can't do that with a Vick. Give me Vick every time, and if he gets hurt or suspended, I can easily pick up or trade for a Eli-type QB.I don't think next season is necessarily more important than 4 years from now, but it is a heck of a lot more predictable. Plus, you can only win the current season, and Vick gives me a much better chance at that than Eli does.

 
fdctrumpet said:
I do know that it doesn't matter if you have Vick #6 or #15 in your personal QB rankings because someone in an initial draft will take him higher than that, making the difference in your rankings irrelevant. SSOG said once that the most important players in your rankings are the ones that are higher than most or the rest of the league/owners because those will be the guys you get the most often as others would not be thinking of them seriously at the point in the draft where you will select them. I think the concept applies to situations like the one being discussed with Vick.
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You only do a dynasty start up draft once (per league)- a larger part of the equation is trade value after the initial draft.
 
So far Lynch, Garcon, and Starks have had potentially value increasing playoff games. That said, of the three Lynch is perhaps the one most likely to retain his jumped value assuming he doesn't stink up the joint next weekend.

 
cvnpoka said:
I will point out again that i dont put any more importance in the upcoming season as i do 4 seasons from now.
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this seems erroneous. the next season is much easier to predict. winning next season does not preclude winning in 4 seasons as much as vice versa.
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All im saying is i want players that are going to help me as much 5 years from now as they are this season. You dont have to accurately predict a players numbers over the next 5 season to do this. And yes, taking players higher because you think they will have a better season this year will hurt you in future years.
 
humpback said:
Go deep said:
humpback said:
Eli had quite a few stinkers this year, so I disagree that he won't lose you any games. Pretty sure Vick won several people their leagues. Which would you rather have, a guy who can single handedly win your league for 2-3 years, or a guy who "may not lose" it for you for the next 5-6?

I don't know anyone who would trade Vick for Eli straight up right now, even with the concerns.
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"Me any" should say "me many", either way, its not so much my liking of Eli as it is my dislike of Vick. Ive explained in this thread why i dont want anything to do with him in dynasty leagues, at least as a top 10 QB. I will point out again that i dont put any more importance in the upcoming season as i do 4 seasons from now. For those who care more about the upcoming season more than other seasons, Vick may be your guy(Although i wouldnt feel to safe with that either).
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That's better, but still- most QBs in that 8-15ish range are in the same boat- they won't lose you many games, but they won't win you many either. That's why they aren't very valuable, even if they are young- they don't provide you with any advantage. You can find a few QBs off the WW who can approximate Eli's production most years, you can't do that with a Vick. Give me Vick every time, and if he gets hurt or suspended, I can easily pick up or trade for a Eli-type QB.I don't think next season is necessarily more important than 4 years from now, but it is a heck of a lot more predictable. Plus, you can only win the current season, and Vick gives me a much better chance at that than Eli does.
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Not in my leagues, there are at least 60-70 QB's rostered in my dynasty leagues. If you want a QB, you either draft one or trade for one. I guess if you are in a league where you can pick up a decent starting Qb at any time, Vick is probably worth more, but that doesnt sound like a very fun league.
 
Go deep said:
cvnpoka said:
I will point out again that i dont put any more importance in the upcoming season as i do 4 seasons from now.
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this seems erroneous. the next season is much easier to predict. winning next season does not preclude winning in 4 seasons as much as vice versa.
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All im saying is i want players that are going to help me as much 5 years from now as they are this season. You dont have to accurately predict a players numbers over the next 5 season to do this. And yes, taking players higher because you think they will have a better season this year will hurt you in future years.
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The problem with your statement is, Eli isn't "helping" you at all, he's actually putting you at a disadvantage in most cases. It will be the same case 5 years from now if he's still the #10 or so QB. Give me great for 1, 2, or 3 years over mediocre for 5 (even 10) all day long- it's much easier to find mediocre.
 
humpback said:
Go deep said:
cvnpoka said:
I will point out again that i dont put any more importance in the upcoming season as i do 4 seasons from now.
Click to expand...
this seems erroneous. the next season is much easier to predict. winning next season does not preclude winning in 4 seasons as much as vice versa.
Click to expand...
All im saying is i want players that are going to help me as much 5 years from now as they are this season. You dont have to accurately predict a players numbers over the next 5 season to do this. And yes, taking players higher because you think they will have a better season this year will hurt you in future years.
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The problem with your statement is, Eli isn't "helping" you at all, he's actually putting you at a disadvantage in most cases. It will be the same case 5 years from now if he's still the #10 or so QB. Give me great for 1, 2, or 3 years over mediocre for 5 (even 10) all day long- it's much easier to find mediocre.
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I have Eli in a 3 way tie for the 9th best dynasty QB. He has finished 10th in each of the last two years, averaging 4000 yards and 29 Td's in those two season. I think he does at least that over the next 4-5 years, which is why i have him ranked as a low end QB1. The problem i am having is people assuming Vick is good for 3 more top 5 seasons. To me its just as likely he ends up hurt, suspened, in prison or a bust next year as he does having another season like this one.
 
Go deep said:
humpback said:
Go deep said:
humpback said:
Eli had quite a few stinkers this year, so I disagree that he won't lose you any games. Pretty sure Vick won several people their leagues. Which would you rather have, a guy who can single handedly win your league for 2-3 years, or a guy who "may not lose" it for you for the next 5-6?

I don't know anyone who would trade Vick for Eli straight up right now, even with the concerns.
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"Me any" should say "me many", either way, its not so much my liking of Eli as it is my dislike of Vick. Ive explained in this thread why i dont want anything to do with him in dynasty leagues, at least as a top 10 QB. I will point out again that i dont put any more importance in the upcoming season as i do 4 seasons from now. For those who care more about the upcoming season more than other seasons, Vick may be your guy(Although i wouldnt feel to safe with that either).
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That's better, but still- most QBs in that 8-15ish range are in the same boat- they won't lose you many games, but they won't win you many either. That's why they aren't very valuable, even if they are young- they don't provide you with any advantage. You can find a few QBs off the WW who can approximate Eli's production most years, you can't do that with a Vick. Give me Vick every time, and if he gets hurt or suspended, I can easily pick up or trade for a Eli-type QB.I don't think next season is necessarily more important than 4 years from now, but it is a heck of a lot more predictable. Plus, you can only win the current season, and Vick gives me a much better chance at that than Eli does.
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Not in my leagues, there are at least 60-70 QB's rostered in my dynasty leagues. If you want a QB, you either draft one or trade for one. I guess if you are in a league where you can pick up a decent starting Qb at any time, Vick is probably worth more, but that doesnt sound like a very fun league.
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IIRC, your rankings are for standard scoring, start 1 QB, right? If your league has 60-70 QBs rostered, that certainly isn't standard. If there are that many QBs rostered, then I'm assuming the Vick owner has several others already as well, right? I'm trying to imagine any league where Eli has close to the same value as Vick, can't think of any.My main dynasty league is pretty large, 14 teams. No, you can't pick up a decent starting QB at any time, but it doesn't cost you much to get a guy like Garrard, Fitzpatrick, Palmer or Cassel who will give you very similar production if you needed it. There are usually injuries every year also where you can grab a guy like Hill, Kitna, Collins, etc.

 
Go deep said:
cvnpoka said:
I will point out again that i dont put any more importance in the upcoming season as i do 4 seasons from now.
Click to expand...
this seems erroneous. the next season is much easier to predict. winning next season does not preclude winning in 4 seasons as much as vice versa.
Click to expand...
All im saying is i want players that are going to help me as much 5 years from now as they are this season. You dont have to accurately predict a players numbers over the next 5 season to do this. And yes, taking players higher because you think they will have a better season this year will hurt you in future years.
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i think its a mistake to weight future years similar to ensuing years. particularly in the case of qbs bc of the learning curve. a rookie like bradford, mallet, luck will likely put up high end fantasy points in a few years. but in the meantime you are locking yourself into weak production. a guy like brady ensures you get elite production in the near future, and you give yourself a chance to uncover future value.i see the options as:a) mediocre production followed by a good chance of elite.b) near lock elite production, followed by some appreciable chance at worthwhile production, and a few yrs to take shots at finding it.
 
humpback said:
Go deep said:
humpback said:
Go deep said:
humpback said:
Eli had quite a few stinkers this year, so I disagree that he won't lose you any games. Pretty sure Vick won several people their leagues. Which would you rather have, a guy who can single handedly win your league for 2-3 years, or a guy who "may not lose" it for you for the next 5-6?

I don't know anyone who would trade Vick for Eli straight up right now, even with the concerns.
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"Me any" should say "me many", either way, its not so much my liking of Eli as it is my dislike of Vick. Ive explained in this thread why i dont want anything to do with him in dynasty leagues, at least as a top 10 QB. I will point out again that i dont put any more importance in the upcoming season as i do 4 seasons from now. For those who care more about the upcoming season more than other seasons, Vick may be your guy(Although i wouldnt feel to safe with that either).
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That's better, but still- most QBs in that 8-15ish range are in the same boat- they won't lose you many games, but they won't win you many either. That's why they aren't very valuable, even if they are young- they don't provide you with any advantage. You can find a few QBs off the WW who can approximate Eli's production most years, you can't do that with a Vick. Give me Vick every time, and if he gets hurt or suspended, I can easily pick up or trade for a Eli-type QB.I don't think next season is necessarily more important than 4 years from now, but it is a heck of a lot more predictable. Plus, you can only win the current season, and Vick gives me a much better chance at that than Eli does.
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Not in my leagues, there are at least 60-70 QB's rostered in my dynasty leagues. If you want a QB, you either draft one or trade for one. I guess if you are in a league where you can pick up a decent starting Qb at any time, Vick is probably worth more, but that doesnt sound like a very fun league.
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IIRC, your rankings are for standard scoring, start 1 QB, right? If your league has 60-70 QBs rostered, that certainly isn't standard. If there are that many QBs rostered, then I'm assuming the Vick owner has several others already as well, right? I'm trying to imagine any league where Eli has close to the same value as Vick, can't think of any.My main dynasty league is pretty large, 14 teams. No, you can't pick up a decent starting QB at any time, but it doesn't cost you much to get a guy like Garrard, Fitzpatrick, Palmer or Cassel who will give you very similar production if you needed it. There are usually injuries every year also where you can grab a guy like Hill, Kitna, Collins, etc.
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Your right, standard 12 team league, start 1 QB. 53 man rosters though(IDP obviously). Its not my liking of Manning that has him higher than Vick, it my dislike of Vick. There is no way i would trust him as my #1 QB for reasons already mentioned in this thread.

 
Let's say you had Schaub in your backpocket. Top quality QB2 according to your rankings. Little difference week to week from Eli. Would you rather pair him with Vick or Eli?

Let's say you had Fitzpatrick and Sanchez in your backpocket. 1 guy with no permanence but should be equivalent to Eli short term, and 1 guy with some permanence and upside but a sketchy start short term. Would you rather pair them with Vick or Eli?

Let's say you have Bradford. Sketchy start short term but you believe with all your heart he will be a stud as soon as 2012. Would you rather pair him with Vick or Eli?

All 3 situations I'd rather have Vick. But that's just me.

 
Go deep said:
Your right, standard 12 team league, start 1 QB. 53 man rosters though(IDP obviously). Its not my liking of Manning that has him higher than Vick, it my dislike of Vick. There is no way i would trust him as my #1 QB for reasons already mentioned in this thread.
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I don't like Vick the person either, but I don't think you're giving enough credit to the season he just had. On a PPG basis, it was unreal.I get not "trusting" him, but that's why you have back-ups. Just out of curiosity, who else does the Vick owner in your league have at QB?IMO, the reward is way too great to just write off owning Vick because you don't trust him, you just have to have a contingency plan in place. If you were talking about Brees/Rivers/Rodgers/Peyton/Brady vs. Vick, then I could see the argument, but not with Eli. His numbers are fairly easily replaced (in most leagues). I understand that there is value in consistency and having a high floor- I'd rather have Eli than try and mix and match every year to get his production. However, I'd take Vick even if I thought he only had 1 great season left. That can win you a championship, where having the #10 QB doesn't (no matter how long you have him).It's why I'd rather have Freeman, Ryan, Flacco, Bradford, Stafford, etc. over Eli- I'd bet Eli will end up being better than some of them, but they all are potentially difference makers, where Eli isn't.
 
thriftyrocker said:
Let's say you had Schaub in your backpocket. Top quality QB2 according to your rankings. Little difference week to week from Eli. Would you rather pair him with Vick or Eli?Let's say you had Fitzpatrick and Sanchez in your backpocket. 1 guy with no permanence but should be equivalent to Eli short term, and 1 guy with some permanence and upside but a sketchy start short term. Would you rather pair them with Vick or Eli?Let's say you have Bradford. Sketchy start short term but you believe with all your heart he will be a stud as soon as 2012. Would you rather pair him with Vick or Eli?All 3 situations I'd rather have Vick. But that's just me.
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Well if i was just looking for an upside guy, i would take Vick, and thats why i have Vick with a higher upside score.
 
humpback said:
Go deep said:
Your right, standard 12 team league, start 1 QB. 53 man rosters though(IDP obviously).

Its not my liking of Manning that has him higher than Vick, it my dislike of Vick. There is no way i would trust him as my #1 QB for reasons already mentioned in this thread.
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I don't like Vick the person either, but I don't think you're giving enough credit to the season he just had. On a PPG basis, it was unreal.I get not "trusting" him, but that's why you have back-ups. Just out of curiosity, who else does the Vick owner in your league have at QB?

IMO, the reward is way too great to just write off owning Vick because you don't trust him, you just have to have a contingency plan in place. If you were talking about Brees/Rivers/Rodgers/Peyton/Brady vs. Vick, then I could see the argument, but not with Eli. His numbers are fairly easily replaced (in most leagues). I understand that there is value in consistency and having a high floor- I'd rather have Eli than try and mix and match every year to get his production. However, I'd take Vick even if I thought he only had 1 great season left. That can win you a championship, where having the #10 QB doesn't (no matter how long you have him).

It's why I'd rather have Freeman, Ryan, Flacco, Bradford, Stafford, etc. over Eli- I'd bet Eli will end up being better than some of them, but they all are potentially difference makers, where Eli isn't.
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Im not sure what you consider a difference maker, but Eli was in the top 5 in passing yards and TD's this season. Thats was without his top 2 WR's for a stretch of games. Obviously the Int's hurt his final numbers, but if he even throws just 20 this season he is a top 7 QB. I think he is capable of even more going forward(and less int's) so i would be comfortable with him as my #1 QB.

If you really care who the Vick owners other QB's are in my leagues, here you go:

league 1

league 2

league 3

league 4

 
Go deep said:
humpback said:
Go deep said:
Your right, standard 12 team league, start 1 QB. 53 man rosters though(IDP obviously).

Its not my liking of Manning that has him higher than Vick, it my dislike of Vick. There is no way i would trust him as my #1 QB for reasons already mentioned in this thread.
Click to expand...
I don't like Vick the person either, but I don't think you're giving enough credit to the season he just had. On a PPG basis, it was unreal.I get not "trusting" him, but that's why you have back-ups. Just out of curiosity, who else does the Vick owner in your league have at QB?

IMO, the reward is way too great to just write off owning Vick because you don't trust him, you just have to have a contingency plan in place. If you were talking about Brees/Rivers/Rodgers/Peyton/Brady vs. Vick, then I could see the argument, but not with Eli. His numbers are fairly easily replaced (in most leagues). I understand that there is value in consistency and having a high floor- I'd rather have Eli than try and mix and match every year to get his production. However, I'd take Vick even if I thought he only had 1 great season left. That can win you a championship, where having the #10 QB doesn't (no matter how long you have him).

It's why I'd rather have Freeman, Ryan, Flacco, Bradford, Stafford, etc. over Eli- I'd bet Eli will end up being better than some of them, but they all are potentially difference makers, where Eli isn't.
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Im not sure what you consider a difference maker, but Eli was in the top 5 in passing yards and TD's this season. Thats was without his top 2 WR's for a stretch of games. Obviously the Int's hurt his final numbers, but if he even throws just 20 this season he is a top 7 QB. I think he is capable of even more going forward(and less int's) so i would be comfortable with him as my #1 QB.

If you really care who the Vick owners other QB's are in my leagues, here you go:

league 1

league 2

league 3

league 4
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I consider a difference maker to be some one who gives you a distinct advantage over most of the teams in your league at their position. Eli does not do that in 1 QB leagues. It doesn't matter that he was top 5 in some categories, all that matters is the total. It's not like this was his 2nd year in the league so you have good reason to expect big improvements- he's been in the league 7 seasons, he basically is what he is at this point. Even if you wanted to take away some of his INTs, which you obviously can't do, he'd still be miles behind Vick.It's not that I care about who else they owned, I was just curious because of what you said. 3 of the 4 teams also own Romo (one has Romo and Schaub), and the 4th has both Orton and Sanchez behind Vick. I'd take Vick on all of those teams easily over Eli as well- they'll all be able to get close to Eli's production, probably better on 3 of the teams, even if something happened to Vick. I don't see how it's close, but that's fine- you're obviously a lot lower on Vick than most.

 
The difference is that vick will cost a high draft pick and eli will not. Vick has potential but a high bust factor. If he bombs, you will probably miss the playoffs.

 
fdctrumpet said:
The difference is that vick will cost a high draft pick and eli will not. Vick has potential but a high bust factor. If he bombs, you will probably miss the playoffs.
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That's not the difference here at all. Saying you'd rather take a RB early and Eli later than take Vick early and RB later makes some sense. Ranking Eli higher than Vick means you would take Eli given the choice between the two (regardless of draft position).
 
Go deep said:
humpback said:
Go deep said:
Your right, standard 12 team league, start 1 QB. 53 man rosters though(IDP obviously).

Its not my liking of Manning that has him higher than Vick, it my dislike of Vick. There is no way i would trust him as my #1 QB for reasons already mentioned in this thread.
Click to expand...
I don't like Vick the person either, but I don't think you're giving enough credit to the season he just had. On a PPG basis, it was unreal.I get not "trusting" him, but that's why you have back-ups. Just out of curiosity, who else does the Vick owner in your league have at QB?

IMO, the reward is way too great to just write off owning Vick because you don't trust him, you just have to have a contingency plan in place. If you were talking about Brees/Rivers/Rodgers/Peyton/Brady vs. Vick, then I could see the argument, but not with Eli. His numbers are fairly easily replaced (in most leagues). I understand that there is value in consistency and having a high floor- I'd rather have Eli than try and mix and match every year to get his production. However, I'd take Vick even if I thought he only had 1 great season left. That can win you a championship, where having the #10 QB doesn't (no matter how long you have him).

It's why I'd rather have Freeman, Ryan, Flacco, Bradford, Stafford, etc. over Eli- I'd bet Eli will end up being better than some of them, but they all are potentially difference makers, where Eli isn't.
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Im not sure what you consider a difference maker, but Eli was in the top 5 in passing yards and TD's this season. Thats was without his top 2 WR's for a stretch of games. Obviously the Int's hurt his final numbers, but if he even throws just 20 this season he is a top 7 QB. I think he is capable of even more going forward(and less int's) so i would be comfortable with him as my #1 QB.

If you really care who the Vick owners other QB's are in my leagues, here you go:

league 1

league 2

league 3

league 4
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I know what you're all thinking... And its obvious. Yes the Steelers in the 3rd league (Z28) won the championship! :rant:
 
Go deep said:
thriftyrocker said:
Let's say you had Schaub in your backpocket. Top quality QB2 according to your rankings. Little difference week to week from Eli. Would you rather pair him with Vick or Eli?Let's say you had Fitzpatrick and Sanchez in your backpocket. 1 guy with no permanence but should be equivalent to Eli short term, and 1 guy with some permanence and upside but a sketchy start short term. Would you rather pair them with Vick or Eli?Let's say you have Bradford. Sketchy start short term but you believe with all your heart he will be a stud as soon as 2012. Would you rather pair him with Vick or Eli?All 3 situations I'd rather have Vick. But that's just me.
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Well if i was just looking for an upside guy, i would take Vick, and thats why i have Vick with a higher upside score.
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Please summarize the situations where this upside play is not desirable in a 12 team 1 QB league. Surveying my 5 leagues there's only 2 teams with QB situations worse than these. One has Garrard/Moore/Claussen/Anderson/Kitna/Favre. The other has Hasselbeck/Fitzpatrick/Whitehurst/McGee. Maybe they should trade for Eli over Vick. All other 54 teams should probably take Vick.Even those 2 teams have 2 teams locked up (JAX/CAR & SEA/BUF) so could survive if Vick was out.
 
Eli is one of the most blah players out there. Ask any owner that's tried to trade him, very few are hot to buy him. Meanwhile I've seen guys almost swap entire teams for Vick. I can understand selling high on Vick cause you think he's going to get hurt, but now that the offseason is here, there isn't much chance of that. And since these are dynasty rankings, I have to assume we are discussing player value as opposed to where they might finish end of the year. I just don't see how Eli is more valuable than Vick at this juncture.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Steed said:
Eli is one of the most blah players out there. Ask any owner that's tried to trade him, very few are hot to buy him. Meanwhile I've seen guys almost swap entire teams for Vick. I can understand selling high on Vick cause you think he's going to get hurt, but now that the offseason is there isn't much chance of that. And since these are dynasty rankings, I have to assume we are discussing player value as opposed to where they might finish end of the year. I just don't see how Eli is more valuable than Vick at this juncture.
Click to expand...
Eli more valuable than Vick? Anyone who thinks that probably does not do well in dynasty or redraft fantasy football IMO.
 
Steed said:
Eli is one of the most blah players out there. Ask any owner that's tried to trade him, very few are hot to buy him. Meanwhile I've seen guys almost swap entire teams for Vick. I can understand selling high on Vick cause you think he's going to get hurt, but now that the offseason is here, there isn't much chance of that. And since these are dynasty rankings, I have to assume we are discussing player value as opposed to where they might finish end of the year. I just don't see how Eli is more valuable than Vick at this juncture.
Click to expand...
I wont disagree with you that Eli is a "blah" player. I also have no doubt that Vick has much more perceived value, which is why given the opportunity to own either, i would take Vick. My rankings dont really take perceived value into account though, and if i were drafting today, i would likely take Eli over Vick.(obviously this would never be an option since vick would be gone well before i had to make that choice)I dont want to keep arguing about Eli and Vick, and i have pretty much made my thoughts clear on the two. Eli is a guy i feel confident i will get top 6-10 QB numbers from over the next 5-6 years. Vick is a guy that could put up top 5 numbers next year and maybe the year after, but its just as likely he isnt even in the NFL two years from now. Its also possible that he doesnt play as hard after he gets paid, and its likely he misses multiple games due to injury, and many other question marks i have about Vick that would make me uncomfortable with having him as my #1 QB.If it wouldnt take 3 years to settle, i would have no problem betting that Eli finishes higher than Vick in 2 of the next 3 seasons.
 
eaglesfan7 said:
Steed said:
Eli is one of the most blah players out there. Ask any owner that's tried to trade him, very few are hot to buy him. Meanwhile I've seen guys almost swap entire teams for Vick. I can understand selling high on Vick cause you think he's going to get hurt, but now that the offseason is there isn't much chance of that. And since these are dynasty rankings, I have to assume we are discussing player value as opposed to where they might finish end of the year. I just don't see how Eli is more valuable than Vick at this juncture.
Click to expand...
Eli more valuable than Vick? Anyone who thinks that probably does not do well in dynasty or redraft fantasy football IMO.
Click to expand...
I posted my four dynasty leagues a few posts above this one of you want to have a look for yourself.(Im the bills) :lmao:
 
humpback said:
Go deep said:
humpback said:
Go deep said:
humpback said:
Eli had quite a few stinkers this year, so I disagree that he won't lose you any games. Pretty sure Vick won several people their leagues. Which would you rather have, a guy who can single handedly win your league for 2-3 years, or a guy who "may not lose" it for you for the next 5-6?

I don't know anyone who would trade Vick for Eli straight up right now, even with the concerns.
Click to expand...
"Me any" should say "me many", either way, its not so much my liking of Eli as it is my dislike of Vick. Ive explained in this thread why i dont want anything to do with him in dynasty leagues, at least as a top 10 QB. I will point out again that i dont put any more importance in the upcoming season as i do 4 seasons from now. For those who care more about the upcoming season more than other seasons, Vick may be your guy(Although i wouldnt feel to safe with that either).
Click to expand...
That's better, but still- most QBs in that 8-15ish range are in the same boat- they won't lose you many games, but they won't win you many either. That's why they aren't very valuable, even if they are young- they don't provide you with any advantage. You can find a few QBs off the WW who can approximate Eli's production most years, you can't do that with a Vick. Give me Vick every time, and if he gets hurt or suspended, I can easily pick up or trade for a Eli-type QB.I don't think next season is necessarily more important than 4 years from now, but it is a heck of a lot more predictable. Plus, you can only win the current season, and Vick gives me a much better chance at that than Eli does.
Click to expand...
Not in my leagues, there are at least 60-70 QB's rostered in my dynasty leagues. If you want a QB, you either draft one or trade for one. I guess if you are in a league where you can pick up a decent starting Qb at any time, Vick is probably worth more, but that doesnt sound like a very fun league.
Click to expand...
IIRC, your rankings are for standard scoring, start 1 QB, right? If your league has 60-70 QBs rostered, that certainly isn't standard. If there are that many QBs rostered, then I'm assuming the Vick owner has several others already as well, right? I'm trying to imagine any league where Eli has close to the same value as Vick, can't think of any.My main dynasty league is pretty large, 14 teams. No, you can't pick up a decent starting QB at any time, but it doesn't cost you much to get a guy like Garrard, Fitzpatrick, Palmer or Cassel who will give you very similar production if you needed it. There are usually injuries every year also where you can grab a guy like Hill, Kitna, Collins, etc.
Click to expand...
In a Zelots league with very large roster sizes, any QB worth a darn is rostered, including many backup QB's. Also, because of the scoring QB's score a lot of points, so they are very valuable. Even a low QB 1 or high QB 2 will cost you to trade for in a Zealots league. Yes even guys like Garrard or Fitzpatrick won't come cheap in a zealots league. It all depends on the league and a guys worth. So making a blanket statement saying you can get guys like Garrard and Fitzpatrick fairly cheap isn't neccesarily true depending on league.
 
eaglesfan7 said:
Steed said:
Eli is one of the most blah players out there. Ask any owner that's tried to trade him, very few are hot to buy him. Meanwhile I've seen guys almost swap entire teams for Vick. I can understand selling high on Vick cause you think he's going to get hurt, but now that the offseason is there isn't much chance of that. And since these are dynasty rankings, I have to assume we are discussing player value as opposed to where they might finish end of the year. I just don't see how Eli is more valuable than Vick at this juncture.
Click to expand...
Eli more valuable than Vick? Anyone who thinks that probably does not do well in dynasty or redraft fantasy football IMO.
Click to expand...
I know Go Deep, he does very well in dynasty football. He wins championships as often as you blink. He is very knowlegable and I listen to what he has to say. I may not always agree but to dismiss out of hand I would not do.
 
Go deep said:
Eli is a guy i feel confident i will get top 6-10 QB numbers from over the next 5-6 years. Vick is a guy that could put up top 5 numbers next year and maybe the year after, but its just as likely he isnt even in the NFL two years from now.
Click to expand...
In FBG scoring, Eli has been between 10th and 14th in each of the last 5 years. I didn't want to look back through this thread, but where did Eli finish in some of your leagues over the last 5 years? If it is similar to where he finished in FBG scoring, why would you count on him finishing between 6th and 10th? To me, he seems like a safe upper-level QB2 in 12 team leagues. I can't see him as a mid-QB1 based on what he has done.
 
Anthony Borbely said:
Go deep said:
Eli is a guy i feel confident i will get top 6-10 QB numbers from over the next 5-6 years. Vick is a guy that could put up top 5 numbers next year and maybe the year after, but its just as likely he isnt even in the NFL two years from now.
Click to expand...
In FBG scoring, Eli has been between 10th and 14th in each of the last 5 years. I didn't want to look back through this thread, but where did Eli finish in some of your leagues over the last 5 years? If it is similar to where he finished in FBG scoring, why would you count on him finishing between 6th and 10th? To me, he seems like a safe upper-level QB2 in 12 team leagues. I can't see him as a mid-QB1 based on what he has done.
Click to expand...
Since his 2nd year(the first season he started from the begining) Eli has finished as a QB1(top 12) in 4 of his 6 seasons(including a QB5 finish), and no lower than 14th in any of them. Over the last two season he has averaged 4011 passing yards and 29 TD's, so his numbers are trending upwards. Which is no coincidence when you look at his current corps of WR's compared to what it was in the few years before 2009. As Manning continues to build more chemistry with his young WR's, i expect his numbers to improve, particularly the Int's. So like i said, i expect his last two years to be right around his floor, with an upside of a few more yards and TD's and less int's, which would put him in the QB 6-10 range. I have alot more faith in that than i do Michael Vick continuing to play at this seaons level, staying healthy, motivated, out of prison, in the NFL, etc.
 
Go deep said:
Anthony Borbely said:
Go deep said:
Eli is a guy i feel confident i will get top 6-10 QB numbers from over the next 5-6 years. Vick is a guy that could put up top 5 numbers next year and maybe the year after, but its just as likely he isnt even in the NFL two years from now.
Click to expand...
In FBG scoring, Eli has been between 10th and 14th in each of the last 5 years. I didn't want to look back through this thread, but where did Eli finish in some of your leagues over the last 5 years? If it is similar to where he finished in FBG scoring, why would you count on him finishing between 6th and 10th? To me, he seems like a safe upper-level QB2 in 12 team leagues. I can't see him as a mid-QB1 based on what he has done.
Click to expand...
Since his 2nd year(the first season he started from the begining) Eli has finished as a QB1(top 12) in 4 of his 6 seasons(including a QB5 finish), and no lower than 14th in any of them. Over the last two season he has averaged 4011 passing yards and 29 TD's, so his numbers are trending upwards. Which is no coincidence when you look at his current corps of WR's compared to what it was in the few years before 2009. As Manning continues to build more chemistry with his young WR's, i expect his numbers to improve, particularly the Int's. So like i said, i expect his last two years to be right around his floor, with an upside of a few more yards and TD's and less int's, which would put him in the QB 6-10 range. I have alot more faith in that than i do Michael Vick continuing to play at this seaons level, staying healthy, motivated, out of prison, in the NFL, etc.
Click to expand...
In the league you listed above as 'league 1', the Zealots 2 league, here are the finishes for manning since 2005 on a ppg basis (with anyone who missed more than 4 games removed):2005 ----- 5th2006 ----- 12th2007 ----- 14th2008 ----- 15th2009 ----- 12th2010 ----- 15thAs Anthony pointed out, there doesn't seem to be any evidence he's a consistent 6-10 guy. He's clearly more like a 11-15 guy.
 
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