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Seriously ...is there any strategy for picking a kicker? (1 Viewer)

I usually draft John Kasay to start the season. He's a pretty reliable kicker. Of course this year it's a bad strategy, because the Panthers can't get Kasay within FG range. But within the next couple of weeks, I'll have a good idea of who the better kickers in the league are and I'll move him out for one of them. Same as every year, except usually I'm not so rushed and can take until bye week if I need to.

If he's not available when my pick's up in the last round, then I'll just pick someone else. It's a kicker. :rolleyes:

 
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a) I wait until the last round of the draft.

b) Focus on kickers with a late bye week.

c) Pick the one who plays on the best offensive team.

d) If he's not getting the job done after 5 or 6 weeks then pick up one of the kickers that had an early bye that got cut by one of your opponents.

 
norgay said:
I think the better question is, why have a kicker at all. Sure, all of FF is subject to a degree of randomness, but there's still some skill involved in seeing which players are undervalued. With a kicker it's a pure crapshoot.It seems like everyone agrees that a kicker's stats from week to week are so prone to luck, then why not do away with the position entirely in FF?
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That was the first rule in the dynasty league I commish. No kickers.
Jeff Pasquino said:
I agree with the offenses (good, not great) and defense (above average, likely not great).Reasoning is that a great offense leads to more TDs instead of field goals.Defenses that are good know that every point matters - so they will play for points on offense. Field goals are huge when you get Baltimore / Pittsburgh / NY Jets together as those are usually low-scoring contests.I also agree about the over/under totals - a good indicator of scoring. I will almost always lean towards a heavily favored team simply because a team trailing may give up on FG tries - or even have to go for two.Lastly, involve the head coach. See how many 40+ and 50+ FG tries that team had last year. If it is a low number, find another option as that coach is afraid to try from long range.
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The problem with the "good but not great offenses" strategy is that it's a lot better on paper than it is in the box score.I looked up final kicker finishes last season in a league that has pretty standard kicker scoring (3 points for all FGs, 2 point bonus for 50 yarders, 1 point for XPs). Here's the order of finish by kickers in my league, along with what kind of offense they played in.#1- Kaeding (4th best offense)#2- Akers (5th best offense)#3- Longwell (2nd best offense)#4- Mason Crosby (3rd best offense)#5- Gostkowski (6th best offense)The top 4 kickers all played in top-5 offenses. The top 5 kickers all played in top-6 offenses. Again, targeting a kicker on a "good but not great offense" sounds great in theory, and it's a great way to get yourself a lot of 8th place, 9th place, 10th place finishes... but personally, I'd much rather have a top 5 kicker, and the surest way to land yourself a top 5 kicker is to land yourself a kicker from a top 5 offense.
 
Hipple said:
good offense and bad defense. don't overthink.
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Quality of defense isn't all that relevant. The top 5 kickers I mentioned above played with the #11 defense, #19 defense, #10 defense, #7 defense, and #5 defense in terms of points allowed. Quality of offense is really all that matters. And Dome/Denver is nice, too, but hardly mandatory- Gostkowski and Akers play in New England and Philadelphia and they've been high-quality fantasy kickers for years.
 
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the spanker said:
Easy Six said:
There's a guy in my league named Bob. Bob drafts a kicker high every year and then drops him the first time he screws up. I draft the highest rated kicker (usually according to FBG) I can get in the least round, and then when Bob drops his kicker I exchange that kicker immediately for mine. I have ended up with a top-5 kicker every year I've done that.Find your Bob.
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Hello my name is Bob.Week one I dropped Hartley after he missed 2 FGs.Afterwards another owner picked him up.Week 3 Hartley is out of a job!Maybe you should rethink that strategy as its not foolproof.
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You're clearly the wrong Bob. My Bob dropped Gostkowski this year.Also, Hartley still has a job.
 
I usually grab kickers from teams as stated above--good, but not "great" offenses, w/ projected good defenses. This year, I opted to go the route of taking Crosby b/c I own Rodgers. My rationale is that I get a piece of every score, & for the times GB stalls in the redzone, I won't be pissed, at least I get a FG attempt.

 
SSOG said:
norgay said:
I think the better question is, why have a kicker at all. Sure, all of FF is subject to a degree of randomness, but there's still some skill involved in seeing which players are undervalued. With a kicker it's a pure crapshoot.It seems like everyone agrees that a kicker's stats from week to week are so prone to luck, then why not do away with the position entirely in FF?
Click to expand...
That was the first rule in the dynasty league I commish. No kickers.
Jeff Pasquino said:
I agree with the offenses (good, not great) and defense (above average, likely not great).Reasoning is that a great offense leads to more TDs instead of field goals.Defenses that are good know that every point matters - so they will play for points on offense. Field goals are huge when you get Baltimore / Pittsburgh / NY Jets together as those are usually low-scoring contests.I also agree about the over/under totals - a good indicator of scoring. I will almost always lean towards a heavily favored team simply because a team trailing may give up on FG tries - or even have to go for two.Lastly, involve the head coach. See how many 40+ and 50+ FG tries that team had last year. If it is a low number, find another option as that coach is afraid to try from long range.
Click to expand...
The problem with the "good but not great offenses" strategy is that it's a lot better on paper than it is in the box score.I looked up final kicker finishes last season in a league that has pretty standard kicker scoring (3 points for all FGs, 2 point bonus for 50 yarders, 1 point for XPs). Here's the order of finish by kickers in my league, along with what kind of offense they played in.#1- Kaeding (4th best offense)#2- Akers (5th best offense)#3- Longwell (2nd best offense)#4- Mason Crosby (3rd best offense)#5- Gostkowski (6th best offense)The top 4 kickers all played in top-5 offenses. The top 5 kickers all played in top-6 offenses. Again, targeting a kicker on a "good but not great offense" sounds great in theory, and it's a great way to get yourself a lot of 8th place, 9th place, 10th place finishes... but personally, I'd much rather have a top 5 kicker, and the surest way to land yourself a top 5 kicker is to land yourself a kicker from a top 5 offense.
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It's great that last year taking a top kicker from a top offense was fruitful - in hindsight. I still stand by my approach - good but not great (forward-looking) yields your best shot at solid PK points, IMO.Or, just draft the Denver kicker every year. :lmao:
 
Mark Wimer said:
I target reliable kickers on good, but not great offenses. I want to target a team that can move the ball between the 20's, but not necessarily have a great red zone % (because their drives often result in FGs rather than EPs). A strong defense is helpful to the so-so to good offense, but not necessarily crucial (teams that get in a lot of shootouts produce good kicker stats, too). A defense that is strong in one phase (rushing or receiving) but weak in the other is desirable for kicker stats, IMO - these are the teams that get in high-scoring affairs as opposing teams take advantage of the glaring weakness on D forcing high-scoring contests.

Also, I tend to avoid the ultra-cold-weather, outdoor venue kickers (Buffalo, Green Bay, Cleveland) as the kickers generally stink in December.

Also, as Mike Herman has demonstrated in his work, owning the Denver kicker is usually a ticket to a top-10 performance due to the 8 yearly games in conditions that are very suited to making long kicks (despite being near the Rockies, Denver is on the high plains and the winter weather isn't as severe as you would expect - not as severe as the three I cited above, anyway).

So, my progression is:

Denver Kicker (Prater this year)

Good kickers on decent but not outstanding offensive teams:

Nick Folk (NYJ) - for whatever reason, I ended up drafting him the most often in my staff leagues - probably because all of us are familiar with Mike Herman's Denver profile, and I never take the first kicker off the board



Joe Nedney (SF) - the offense hasn't been as good as I anticipated yet this year, but Nedney fits my parameters

Sea Bass (OAK) offense is improving, but the Raiders still ask Janikowski to kick a lot of long attempts



Stephen Gostkowski - poor RB stable leads to a decent number of kick attempts despite the powerful passing offense...

ETC.

My .02.
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similarily exclude pitt kicker. It used to be NYG K too, but I don't know if the meadowlands effect is as pronounced in the new one or not..,.

 
SSOG said:
Hipple said:
good offense and bad defense. don't overthink.
Click to expand...
Quality of defense isn't all that relevant. The top 5 kickers I mentioned above played with the #11 defense, #19 defense, #10 defense, #7 defense, and #5 defense in terms of points allowed. Quality of offense is really all that matters. And Dome/Denver is nice, too, but hardly mandatory- Gostkowski and Akers play in New England and Philadelphia and they've been high-quality fantasy kickers for years.
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I took it as playing against a bad defense, not on a bad defensive team.In fact, I would think bad defensive teams don't kick as many Fg's due to being behind and needing td's and not having the football as much, meaning less opportunity.
 
This is the dumbest thread in the world.

"hey guys, how do I choose between head or tails in a coin toss?"

I'm fairly sure that if a statistical analysis were to be conducted, those that choose blindly would do no worse than those that incorporate a strategy in choosing a kicker.

 
faux_bear said:
This is the dumbest thread in the world."hey guys, how do I choose between head or tails in a coin toss?"I'm fairly sure that if a statistical analysis were to be conducted, those that choose blindly would do no worse than those that incorporate a strategy in choosing a kicker.
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:popcorn: move along then....there's good info in this thread...oh and by the way the coin toss landed on ......Cleveland's Phil Dawson!!!!.... enjoy your kicker!!!!you should be thrilled since it's a coin toss and luck is all that's required....if you are lucky he will end up the #1 kicker this year!
 
Mark Wimer said:
It's great that last year taking a top kicker from a top offense was fruitful - in hindsight. I still stand by my approach - good but not great (forward-looking) yields your best shot at solid PK points, IMO.Or, just draft the Denver kicker every year. ;)
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It wasn't just a "last year" thing, though. It's an "always and forever" thing.In 2008, the top 5 scorers came from the 8th, 6th, 3rd, 19th, and 7th offenses. In 2007, they came from the 4th, 1st, 22nd, 2nd, and 11th. In 2006, they came from the 2nd, 1st, 10th, 12th, and 9th ranked offenses. In 2005, they came from the 3rd, 17th, 4th, 6th, 8th, and 2nd (there was a tie for 5th place). Of the last 26 kickers to finish in the top 5, 9 of them came from top-3 offenses, 16 came from top-6 offenses, and 21 of them came from top-10 offenses.To look at the problem from another angle, here are the odds that a kicker from a certain offense finished within the top 5 in scoring over the last 5 years:Offense rank 1-4: 60%Offense rank 5-10: 30%Offense rank 11-16: 7%Offense rank 17-32: 4%
faux_bear said:
This is the dumbest thread in the world."hey guys, how do I choose between head or tails in a coin toss?"I'm fairly sure that if a statistical analysis were to be conducted, those that choose blindly would do no worse than those that incorporate a strategy in choosing a kicker.
Click to expand...
I'm absolutely positive that if a statistical analysis were to be conducted, those who incorporated a strategy would absolutely beat a random number generator.
 
for all the people claiming there's no strategy to kickers, i'm just going to repeat:

ready5 said:
go for negative covariance with your QB, RB/WR1, and/or stud TE.
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i can't tell you how many close games i've won with this strategy, even with just picking kickers off the wire. plus, you can leverage the opposite effect if you're outmatched/etc by going for positive covariance versus your opponent.use kickers (and defenses) to hedge your bets.
 
Last round, I try to pick one with a bye later in the year, and not on a week I have a lot of other byes. Frequently drop early to mid season for a different kicker.

 
Kickers on the top 3 offenses usually go earlier then I would draft.

So I usually draft a kicker on a team with a good defense who I think may have trouble in the red-zone.

This year I took N. Folk.

Have no stats to back it up. Just memories of Elliot Gould racking up pts for Baltimore years back.

 
Generally whicever K is left who I think will be on the highest scoring offense. Generally teams who pass alot but dont necessarily have the strongest running game to move the chains in their half.

Last year I drafted Kaeding in a number of leagues and he was very solid. This year I didnt draft a K at all so I could hoard all the solid RB talent. I then picked up Rackers when I heard he won the job, money!

 
Mark Wimer said:
SSOG said:
norgay said:
I think the better question is, why have a kicker at all. Sure, all of FF is subject to a degree of randomness, but there's still some skill involved in seeing which players are undervalued. With a kicker it's a pure crapshoot.It seems like everyone agrees that a kicker's stats from week to week are so prone to luck, then why not do away with the position entirely in FF?
Click to expand...
That was the first rule in the dynasty league I commish. No kickers.
Jeff Pasquino said:
I agree with the offenses (good, not great) and defense (above average, likely not great).Reasoning is that a great offense leads to more TDs instead of field goals.Defenses that are good know that every point matters - so they will play for points on offense. Field goals are huge when you get Baltimore / Pittsburgh / NY Jets together as those are usually low-scoring contests.I also agree about the over/under totals - a good indicator of scoring. I will almost always lean towards a heavily favored team simply because a team trailing may give up on FG tries - or even have to go for two.Lastly, involve the head coach. See how many 40+ and 50+ FG tries that team had last year. If it is a low number, find another option as that coach is afraid to try from long range.
Click to expand...
The problem with the "good but not great offenses" strategy is that it's a lot better on paper than it is in the box score.I looked up final kicker finishes last season in a league that has pretty standard kicker scoring (3 points for all FGs, 2 point bonus for 50 yarders, 1 point for XPs). Here's the order of finish by kickers in my league, along with what kind of offense they played in.#1- Kaeding (4th best offense)#2- Akers (5th best offense)#3- Longwell (2nd best offense)#4- Mason Crosby (3rd best offense)#5- Gostkowski (6th best offense)The top 4 kickers all played in top-5 offenses. The top 5 kickers all played in top-6 offenses. Again, targeting a kicker on a "good but not great offense" sounds great in theory, and it's a great way to get yourself a lot of 8th place, 9th place, 10th place finishes... but personally, I'd much rather have a top 5 kicker, and the surest way to land yourself a top 5 kicker is to land yourself a kicker from a top 5 offense.
Click to expand...
It's great that last year taking a top kicker from a top offense was fruitful - in hindsight. I still stand by my approach - good but not great (forward-looking) yields your best shot at solid PK points, IMO.Or, just draft the Denver kicker every year. ;)
Click to expand...
Its so hilarious when people see completely convincing, unquestionable information and choose to ignore it. The Human race lmao.
 
faux_bear said:
This is the dumbest thread in the world."hey guys, how do I choose between head or tails in a coin toss?"I'm fairly sure that if a statistical analysis were to be conducted, those that choose blindly would do no worse than those that incorporate a strategy in choosing a kicker.
Click to expand...
There has been statistical analysis, and its shown that the strongest correlation is with team points scored.
 
In all seriousness, Mike Herman does the best kicker analysis I've ever seen. Check out his posts for kicker info.

 
yrforyg said:
Easy Six said:
In all seriousness, Mike Herman does the best kicker analysis I've ever seen. Check out his posts for kicker info.
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The fact that he writes a lot of words doesn't make it good analysis.
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I'm aware. I've also been following his kicker analysis for the better part of a decade, and it's both insightful and filled with information. I appreciate that you apparently disagree, but I think you're flat-out wrong if that's the case.
 
If i'm "flat out wrong" I expect it should be trivial for you to cite some statistics showing how his projections and sit/start recommendations have compared with those of his peers.

 
yrforyg said:
If i'm "flat out wrong" I expect it should be trivial for you to cite some statistics showing how his projections and sit/start recommendations have compared with those of his peers.
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I'm confused. Are we talking about his "analysis" or his "sit/start recommendations"?
 
I pick a top kicker, and start him all season, except for his bye.

This year, my kicker is Garrett Hartley.

 
Here is my strategy.

1. I draft whoever.

2. Each week, I look at the point spreads and over/unders for each game to reverse-engineer how many points each team is expected to score.

3. From the available kickers (either already on my team or on the waiver wire), I start the guy whose team is expected to score the most points.

(Bonus tip: In most leagues, I do the same thing with defenses, except that I start the defense whose team is expected to surrender the fewest points. Scoring system can vary that a bit, though.)

Edit to add: I hadn't read to the end of the thread when I posted, but I guess I do the exact same thing as Voice of Reason, and the exact opposite thing from Topes.

 
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Easy Six said:
yrforyg said:
If i'm "flat out wrong" I expect it should be trivial for you to cite some statistics showing how his projections and sit/start recommendations have compared with those of his peers.
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I'm confused. Are we talking about his "analysis" or his "sit/start recommendations"?
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In theory, wouldn't his "start/sit recommendations" be based on his analysis? What's the point of good analysis if it doesn't yield real-world benefits? You could watch film of every kick that every kicker has made for his entire career, plug it into a computer, chart each kick's variance from dead center to create a composite accuracy score based on something less binary than a simple "good/no good" system, run a regression to find the factors that best predict success, and combine all of this analysis into a single "fantasy kicker score"... but if that score recommends that you draft Phil Dawson, Rian Lindell, and Ryan Succop, then I'd say all that analysis wasn't really all that useful.I don't question that Herman knows a lot about kicking and kickers in general. I would be curious to see how well his knowledge translates to actual fantasy success.
 
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