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Obviously Philip Rivers hasn't done enough yet to call him a HOFer. And for those who think a QB needs rings to make the HOF, he's also on pace for zero of those. But I'm wondering if you think when his career is over, and 30 years from now, do you think he will be in the Hall?

I think yes, and I'm as confident as I could be about a QB at his age with no rings to his name. I expect by the time he retires, he has one or two SB appearances, with one or two rings, an MVP or two, and will go have some of the best efficiency numbers in league history. So an overwhelming yes for me, but I expect another decade of very good play.

What do you think? Will he make it?

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At this rate, if Rivers is left out of the Hall because he didn't win a Super Bowl, might as well get Moon and Fouts out of there as well, since neither of those guys won one either (and both had less

Rivers is going to be in the HOF, just accept it.

Those are both true statements, but bostonfred's stuff is sillier. I mean, Drew Bledsoe, seriously? Bledsoe's career passer rating is 77.1 and he never had a season over 90. In the only year he l

Yes.

There is every reason to believe he can have a career like those of Fouts or Warren Moon, who are HOFers, which implies he could fail to win a ring and still make it.

This is his third straight year of absolutely dominant play, and he has done it this year without his top weapons, so there is every reason to believe he can maintain his play while his supporting cast changes around him.

He has been durable throughout his college and NFL career. He set an NCAA record for starts in college and has never missed a start in college or in the NFL. While any player can get hurt on any play, that suggests that he has a better than average chance of playing out a long career and not missing many games while doing so... which, in turn, means he will probably end up ranking pretty high in various passer totals. And if he does, he will likely continue to be very efficient in doing so, which should elevate him statistically over a lot of other QB greats.

I certainly don't think it is a nobrainer, but the question is whether or not I expect him to be in 30 years from now, and I do.

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There is every reason to believe he can have a career like those of Fouts or Warren Moon, who are HOFers, which implies he could fail to win a ring and still make it.

Marino is also in the HOF, and never won a ring.To the OP, yes I think Rivers will be in the HOF one day.
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There is every reason to believe he can have a career like those of Fouts or Warren Moon, who are HOFers, which implies he could fail to win a ring and still make it.

Marino is also in the HOF, and never won a ring.To the OP, yes I think Rivers will be in the HOF one day.
Yes, I thought of mentioning Marino but thought Fouts and Moon represented a lower bar that better shows it is possible.
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Obviously Philip Rivers hasn't done enough yet to call him a HOFer. And for those who think a QB needs rings to make the HOF, he's also on pace for zero of those. But I'm wondering if you think when his career is over, and 30 years from now, do you think he will be in the Hall?

I think yes, and I'm as confident as I could be about a QB at his age with no rings to his name. I expect by the time he retires, he has one or two SB appearances, with one or two rings, an MVP or two, and will go have some of the best efficiency numbers in league history. So an overwhelming yes for me, but I expect another decade of very good play.

What do you think? Will he make it?

I voted Yes and I certainly believe he'll have a much better shot than Eli Manning ever will.
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Obviously Philip Rivers hasn't done enough yet to call him a HOFer. And for those who think a QB needs rings to make the HOF, he's also on pace for zero of those. But I'm wondering if you think when his career is over, and 30 years from now, do you think he will be in the Hall?

I think yes, and I'm as confident as I could be about a QB at his age with no rings to his name. I expect by the time he retires, he has one or two SB appearances, with one or two rings, an MVP or two, and will go have some of the best efficiency numbers in league history. So an overwhelming yes for me, but I expect another decade of very good play.

What do you think? Will he make it?

I really think he needs a ring.

Chase, you're a numbers guys, but how many QBs go in each decade? You have three contemporaries with better HOF resumes...Manning, Brady, and Brees. From there he might have competition from Rodgers, Eli and Ben. After that you have guys with potential like Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Vick, Flacco, and Freeman. So I've got 3 virtual locks. I expect 2 of the next 3 current mid tier resumes make it. I would expect one of the flyers to turn into a HOF type of guy. So that's a total of six. If the HOF will take 7 in 10 years then Rivers becomes a lock based on current trajectory and no ring.

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Chase, you're a numbers guys, but how many QBs go in each decade? You have three contemporaries with better HOF resumes...Manning, Brady, and Brees. From there he might have competition from Rodgers, Eli and Ben. After that you have guys with potential like Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Vick, Flacco, and Freeman. So I've got 3 virtual locks. I expect 2 of the next 3 current mid tier resumes make it. I would expect one of the flyers to turn into a HOF type of guy. So that's a total of six. If the HOF will take 7 in 10 years then Rivers becomes a lock based on current trajectory and no ring.

Don't forget Kurt Warner; he is a lock.
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Chase, you're a numbers guys, but how many QBs go in each decade? You have three contemporaries with better HOF resumes...Manning, Brady, and Brees. From there he might have competition from Rodgers, Eli and Ben. After that you have guys with potential like Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Vick, Flacco, and Freeman. So I've got 3 virtual locks. I expect 2 of the next 3 current mid tier resumes make it. I would expect one of the flyers to turn into a HOF type of guy. So that's a total of six. If the HOF will take 7 in 10 years then Rivers becomes a lock based on current trajectory and no ring.

Don't forget Kurt Warner; he is a lock.
I was trying to focus solely on guys I expect to play a few more years and would at least be in the same area code of Rivers' retirement date so I excluded Warner and Favre.
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Chase, you're a numbers guys, but how many QBs go in each decade? You have three contemporaries with better HOF resumes...Manning, Brady, and Brees. From there he might have competition from Rodgers, Eli and Ben. After that you have guys with potential like Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Vick, Flacco, and Freeman. So I've got 3 virtual locks. I expect 2 of the next 3 current mid tier resumes make it. I would expect one of the flyers to turn into a HOF type of guy. So that's a total of six. If the HOF will take 7 in 10 years then Rivers becomes a lock based on current trajectory and no ring.

Don't forget Kurt Warner; he is a lock.
I was trying to focus solely on guys I expect to play a few more years and would at least be in the same area code of Rivers' retirement date so I excluded Warner and Favre.
How do you define area code here? Peyton is 5 years older, Brady 4 years older. Manning in particular began playing in the NFL 7 years earlier than Rivers.
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Chase, you're a numbers guys, but how many QBs go in each decade? You have three contemporaries with better HOF resumes...Manning, Brady, and Brees. From there he might have competition from Rodgers, Eli and Ben. After that you have guys with potential like Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Vick, Flacco, and Freeman. So I've got 3 virtual locks. I expect 2 of the next 3 current mid tier resumes make it. I would expect one of the flyers to turn into a HOF type of guy. So that's a total of six. If the HOF will take 7 in 10 years then Rivers becomes a lock based on current trajectory and no ring.

Don't forget Kurt Warner; he is a lock.
I was trying to focus solely on guys I expect to play a few more years and would at least be in the same area code of Rivers' retirement date so I excluded Warner and Favre.
How do you define area code here? Peyton is 5 years older, Brady 4 years older. Manning in particular began playing in the NFL 7 years earlier than Rivers.
Players that generally came into the league +/-7 years of Rivers and will exit in the same +/- 7 year timeframe.
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Any correlation to the success of Rivers and Rodgers with both of them waiting a few years before they took over the starting reign vs throwing young QB's into the fire? I think so

And then there's Eli, Ben, Manning, Brees, and Brady who have all the rings.
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Any correlation to the success of Rivers and Rodgers with both of them waiting a few years before they took over the starting reign vs throwing young QB's into the fire? I think so

And then there's Eli, Ben, Manning, Brees, and Brady who have all the rings.
Seriously??? You can say that about anybody. I'm simply talking about two of the best younger QB's in the game and that they sat on the bench for a few seasons and it turned out well....very anti-american society(instant gratification).
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Chase, you're a numbers guys, but how many QBs go in each decade? You have three contemporaries with better HOF resumes...Manning, Brady, and Brees. From there he might have competition from Rodgers, Eli and Ben. After that you have guys with potential like Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Vick, Flacco, and Freeman. So I've got 3 virtual locks. I expect 2 of the next 3 current mid tier resumes make it. I would expect one of the flyers to turn into a HOF type of guy. So that's a total of six. If the HOF will take 7 in 10 years then Rivers becomes a lock based on current trajectory and no ring.

The HOF loves QBs. There are 18 HOF QBs who put up significant stats since the merger; 14 whose careers were mostly since the merger. Call it 4 decades, so 4-5 per decade. And that was before the era of the big passing stats we're seeing now. In the past 10 years there have been seven chosen, three without rings: Montana, Jim Kelly (no rings), John Elway, Dan Marino (no rings), Steve Young, Warren Moon (no rings), Troy Aikman. No QBs have been chosen since 2006, just by luck in terms of when people retired; QBs who are going to get in almost always get in on the first ballot. I think it's likely that Rivers will consistently be a top-5 type QB for many years, which will put him in the Hall. I think he has a better chance than any of your mid-tier guys. Edited by CalBear
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Chase, you're a numbers guys, but how many QBs go in each decade? You have three contemporaries with better HOF resumes...Manning, Brady, and Brees. From there he might have competition from Rodgers, Eli and Ben. After that you have guys with potential like Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Vick, Flacco, and Freeman. So I've got 3 virtual locks. I expect 2 of the next 3 current mid tier resumes make it. I would expect one of the flyers to turn into a HOF type of guy. So that's a total of six. If the HOF will take 7 in 10 years then Rivers becomes a lock based on current trajectory and no ring.

:lmao:
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Any correlation to the success of Rivers and Rodgers with both of them waiting a few years before they took over the starting reign vs throwing young QB's into the fire? I think so

And then there's Eli, Ben, Manning, Brees, and Brady who have all the rings.
Seriously??? You can say that about anybody. I'm simply talking about two of the best younger QB's in the game and that they sat on the bench for a few seasons and it turned out well....very anti-american society(instant gratification).
The ones i listed more or less got thrown to the wolves. Maybe there's a correlation between getting tossed into adversity and winning rings???That said, I think Rodgers and rivers would have turned out just fine in any scenario. maybe moreso Rivers who wasn't following a legend.
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Tough one. You can't go on just Stats, today's NFL is so ridiculous in terms of favoring the offense you really need to be a winner at the QB position.

He's playing like a MVP this year but I am going to say no . His post season play is just not good enough and to me, don't give me a bunch of gaudy stats, you have to win as well.

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Chase, you're a numbers guys, but how many QBs go in each decade? You have three contemporaries with better HOF resumes...Manning, Brady, and Brees. From there he might have competition from Rodgers, Eli and Ben. After that you have guys with potential like Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Vick, Flacco, and Freeman. So I've got 3 virtual locks. I expect 2 of the next 3 current mid tier resumes make it. I would expect one of the flyers to turn into a HOF type of guy. So that's a total of six. If the HOF will take 7 in 10 years then Rivers becomes a lock based on current trajectory and no ring.

The HOF loves QBs. There are 18 HOF QBs who put up significant stats since the merger; 14 whose careers were mostly since the merger. Call it 4 decades, so 4-5 per decade. And that was before the era of the big passing stats we're seeing now. In the past 10 years there have been seven chosen, three without rings: Montana, Jim Kelly (no rings), John Elway, Dan Marino (no rings), Steve Young, Warren Moon (no rings), Troy Aikman. No QBs have been chosen since 2006, just by luck in terms of when people retired; QBs who are going to get in almost always get in on the first ballot. I think it's likely that Rivers will consistently be a top-5 type QB for many years, which will put him in the Hall. I think he has a better chance than any of your mid-tier guys.
If passing stats level off, I agree, but if the trend continues and guys like Orton can have huge seasons, Rivers numbers won't see as impressive among his contrmporaries as Marinos and Moon's did.i can't put Rivers sans ring in front of Ben. I suspect Ben will pick up another ring during his career and is a lock if he stays away from the young girls.
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Chase, you're a numbers guys, but how many QBs go in each decade? You have three contemporaries with better HOF resumes...Manning, Brady, and Brees. From there he might have competition from Rodgers, Eli and Ben. After that you have guys with potential like Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Vick, Flacco, and Freeman. So I've got 3 virtual locks. I expect 2 of the next 3 current mid tier resumes make it. I would expect one of the flyers to turn into a HOF type of guy. So that's a total of six. If the HOF will take 7 in 10 years then Rivers becomes a lock based on current trajectory and no ring.

:lmao:
My point is that one of these guys might turn out to be an Aikman or Bradshaw and sneak in.
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If passing stats level off, I agree, but if the trend continues and guys like Orton can have huge seasons, Rivers numbers won't see as impressive among his contrmporaries as Marinos and Moon's did.

I think this may be true if you focus on accumulated stats, but Rivers' rate stats are his strength, and I don't think many of his contemporaries are likely to be particularly close to him in those categories. If so, his numbers will seem very impressive relative to his contemporaries.
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Chase, you're a numbers guys, but how many QBs go in each decade? You have three contemporaries with better HOF resumes...Manning, Brady, and Brees. From there he might have competition from Rodgers, Eli and Ben. After that you have guys with potential like Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Vick, Flacco, and Freeman. So I've got 3 virtual locks. I expect 2 of the next 3 current mid tier resumes make it. I would expect one of the flyers to turn into a HOF type of guy. So that's a total of six. If the HOF will take 7 in 10 years then Rivers becomes a lock based on current trajectory and no ring.

:rolleyes:
My point is that one of these guys might turn out to be an Aikman or Bradshaw and sneak in.
Manning is 5 years older than Rivers, Brady is 4 years older, Brees is 2 years older. And Rivers is a good bit older than most of the others you list (excepting Romo and Vick, who both would need to do a buttload more to start to compete with Rivers). Assuming relatively similar career paths, Manning and Brady will be long enshrined when the time comes around to vote on Rivers, and none of the others will be close to consideration. Maybe Brees will have just been inducted, or be in the same class.

Rivers is currently the career leader in passer rating, has led the league in yards/attempt three years running, and is on his way to his first All-Pro team and a decent shot at MVP. Give him productivity to his mid 30s and he'll be a shoe-in.

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Chase, you're a numbers guys, but how many QBs go in each decade? You have three contemporaries with better HOF resumes...Manning, Brady, and Brees. From there he might have competition from Rodgers, Eli and Ben. After that you have guys with potential like Romo, Ryan, Sanchez, Bradford, Vick, Flacco, and Freeman. So I've got 3 virtual locks. I expect 2 of the next 3 current mid tier resumes make it. I would expect one of the flyers to turn into a HOF type of guy. So that's a total of six. If the HOF will take 7 in 10 years then Rivers becomes a lock based on current trajectory and no ring.

:thumbup:
Freeman is a star on a team with no stars. As he improves, so will the Bucs. Seriously, the guy is extremely talented and tough, and will probably be a top 10 to top 5 QB from here on out starting next year.

If he was a rookie this year at the age of 22 being as efficient and stellar as he has been, people would be talking about him as the next great thing. He's 22 and he's already leading his team and putting up big wins, oftentimes from behind because his team is quite honestly slightly above average. They have a great pass defense and atrocious run defense. They have a rookie RB (who is admittedly doing well) and their #1 receiver is also a rookie, taken in 4th round of the draft. The fact that Freeman is playing at such a high level and winning games in the fashion he is just shows how great of a player he is. He has a bright future in the league.

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If passing stats level off, I agree, but if the trend continues and guys like Orton can have huge seasons, Rivers numbers won't see as impressive among his contrmporaries as Marinos and Moon's did.

I think this may be true if you focus on accumulated stats, but Rivers' rate stats are his strength, and I don't think many of his contemporaries are likely to be particularly close to him in those categories. If so, his numbers will seem very impressive relative to his contemporaries.
Strong argument. I think a Super Bowl appearance and decent showing in the big game would be enough to lock it it up.
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I think Rivers will need a ring to get in. He will be compared to Rogers, Brees, Brady and Peyton Manning in unfavorable terms but he will look good compared to Eli Manning, Roethlisburger, and Ryan. He’s also going to get competition from an unlikely source - Antonio Gates. Because Gates is a no-brainer it might be possible that Gates will give HOF voters a two-for-one option. Without a ring there I’d say Rivers needs more than one MVP year to get in.

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I think Rivers will need a ring to get in. He will be compared to Rogers, Brees, Brady and Peyton Manning in unfavorable terms but he will look good compared to Eli Manning, Roethlisburger, and Ryan. He’s also going to get competition from an unlikely source - Antonio Gates. Because Gates is a no-brainer it might be possible that Gates will give HOF voters a two-for-one option. Without a ring there I’d say Rivers needs more than one MVP year to get in.

Gates is likely to be HOF-eligible several years before Rivers is.
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Yes although one thing that will come up if he continues on the way he does is that he will end up not being well liked by those outside of the SD area. He does have a lot of brat moments. Funny though, it doesn't seem like the team cares that he sometimes loses his cool.

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Without question.And he's also clearly the best QB from the 2004 class, despite Ben and Eli having rings.

As a pure passer, no doubt. But as a fit for a team, Ben is fine where he's at and I doubt you'd get a majority of takers if you could swap Rivers for Big Ben...from either perspective.HoF, I agree he gets in if he has a handful more years amassing the numbers he is currently.
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Any correlation to the success of Rivers and Rodgers with both of them waiting a few years before they took over the starting reign vs throwing young QB's into the fire? I think so

And then there's Eli, Ben, Manning, Brees, and Brady who have all the rings.
Seriously??? You can say that about anybody. I'm simply talking about two of the best younger QB's in the game and that they sat on the bench for a few seasons and it turned out well....very anti-american society(instant gratification).
The ones i listed more or less got thrown to the wolves. Maybe there's a correlation between getting tossed into adversity and winning rings???That said, I think Rodgers and rivers would have turned out just fine in any scenario. maybe moreso Rivers who wasn't following a legend.
Well, not like some of those were not thrown into some adversity.As for winning rings...Brees and Manning certainly did not do it right away either.Bed and Brady did...Eli in his 4th year.I think Rivers and Rodgers have time in this one.
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Obviously Philip Rivers hasn't done enough yet to call him a HOFer. And for those who think a QB needs rings to make the HOF, he's also on pace for zero of those. But I'm wondering if you think when his career is over, and 30 years from now, do you think he will be in the Hall?

I think yes, and I'm as confident as I could be about a QB at his age with no rings to his name. I expect by the time he retires, he has one or two SB appearances, with one or two rings, an MVP or two, and will go have some of the best efficiency numbers in league history. So an overwhelming yes for me, but I expect another decade of very good play.

What do you think? Will he make it?

He turns 29 in a couple of weeks. I think another 5 years of very good play can be expected; 10 is a stretch (unless you're predicting an Elway/Favre/Moon type of career). Either way, another 5+ years of 3500/25 and he's a lock.
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Without question.And he's also clearly the best QB from the 2004 class, despite Ben and Eli having rings.

Trying to understand this viewpoint. Is Steve Johnson clearly a better receiver than Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson?
Wow, that's... a pretty horrible analogy. Had you ever heard of Steve Johnson prior to this season? How about Rivers?
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Without question.And he's also clearly the best QB from the 2004 class, despite Ben and Eli having rings.

Trying to understand this viewpoint. Is Steve Johnson clearly a better receiver than Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson?
"Best" can be interpreted in different ways. Clearly Rivers is not the most accomplished of this group, since both of the others have rings and he does not. However, I think he is the best of this group in terms of playing the QB position.Not sure if that addresses your question, but your analogy doesn't really fit IMO. Johnson has been more productive than the others so far this season, but the others have obviously been more productive than Johnson in previous seasons. Rivers has been more productive than Ben and Eli this year, but your analogy breaks down there... Rivers has been more productive than both Ben and Eli in 4 of the 5 seasons since he took over as the Chargers starter.
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Without question.And he's also clearly the best QB from the 2004 class, despite Ben and Eli having rings.

As a pure passer, no doubt. But as a fit for a team, Ben is fine where he's at and I doubt you'd get a majority of takers if you could swap Rivers for Big Ben...from either perspective.HoF, I agree he gets in if he has a handful more years amassing the numbers he is currently.
I wouldn't want to trade Ben for Rivers. I know Ben is clutch in big situations and can play behind a terrible OL.
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Without question.

And he's also clearly the best QB from the 2004 class, despite Ben and Eli having rings.

Trying to understand this viewpoint. Is Steve Johnson clearly a better receiver than Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson?
"Best" can be interpreted in different ways. Clearly Rivers is not the most accomplished of this group, since both of the others have rings and he does not. However, I think he is the best of this group in terms of playing the QB position.

Not sure if that addresses your question, but your analogy doesn't really fit IMO. Johnson has been more productive than the others so far this season, but the others have obviously been more productive than Johnson in previous seasons. Rivers has been more productive than Ben and Eli this year, but your analogy breaks down there... Rivers has been more productive than both Ben and Eli in 4 of the 5 seasons since he took over as the Chargers starter.

This is similar to the Brady/Manning debate and probably a debate best left for another thread. But I think if it's strictly a numbers game then we should consider that if Eli/Giants or Ben/Steelers played their home games in San Diego and six games vs. AFC West defenses of the past five years their stats would go from very good to great.

Here's a stat that carries some meaning,

Career Postseason QB Rating

Ben 87.2

Rivers 79.2

Eli 77.6

Edited by Frenchy Fuqua
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This is similar to the Brady/Manning debate and probably a debate best left for another thread. But I think if it's strictly a numbers game then we should consider that if Eli/Giants or Ben/Steelers played their home games in San Diego and six games vs. AFC West defenses of the past five years their stats would go from very good to great.

Here's a stat that carries some meaning,

Career Postseason QB Rating

Ben 87.2

Rivers 79.2

Eli 77.6

ya bc its such a challenge to beat up on the browns and bengals defenses.

and lol at thinking postseason qb rating is meaningful.

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This is similar to the Brady/Manning debate and probably a debate best left for another thread. But I think if it's strictly a numbers game then we should consider that if Eli/Giants or Ben/Steelers played their home games in San Diego and six games vs. AFC West defenses of the past five years their stats would go from very good to great.

Here's a stat that carries some meaning,

Career Postseason QB Rating

Ben 87.2

Rivers 79.2

Eli 77.6

ya bc its such a challenge to beat up on the browns and bengals defenses.

and lol at thinking postseason qb rating is meaningful.

You don't think potseason QB Rating means anything?

I wouldn't say it's the be all end all, but I think it should be part of a discussion...

When were the Browns in the postseason last? 2003? That wasn't Ben.

What team do you follow?

Just curious...

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There is every reason to believe he can have a career like those of Fouts or Warren Moon, who are HOFers, which implies he could fail to win a ring and still make it.

Marino is also in the HOF, and never won a ring.To the OP, yes I think Rivers will be in the HOF one day.
Yes, I thought of mentioning Marino but thought Fouts and Moon represented a lower bar that better shows it is possible.
I respectfully disagree with this. Two weeks ago 13 QB's threw for more than 300 yards(NFL record). Stats alone will not get Rivers in like it did for Moon. Fouts really outperformed his contemporaries and Marino outperformed everyone. Rivers will have to get into a Manning or Brady type zone to even sniff the HOF.
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This seems so clear cut (yes), that at first I thought there was going to be some joke involved.

Rivers clearly is a superior qb, one that certainly has a great shot at the HoF, better than virtually all of the active qb of his age (pending injury, yada yada yada).

I can't even think of a reasonably probable scenario in which he does not make it.

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There is every reason to believe he can have a career like those of Fouts or Warren Moon, who are HOFers, which implies he could fail to win a ring and still make it.

Marino is also in the HOF, and never won a ring.To the OP, yes I think Rivers will be in the HOF one day.
Yes, I thought of mentioning Marino but thought Fouts and Moon represented a lower bar that better shows it is possible.
I respectfully disagree with this. Two weeks ago 13 QB's threw for more than 300 yards(NFL record). Stats alone will not get Rivers in like it did for Moon. Fouts really outperformed his contemporaries and Marino outperformed everyone. Rivers will have to get into a Manning or Brady type zone to even sniff the HOF.
How many of those 13 QBs are throwing for 9.0 yards/attempt with a 100+ QB rating? How many are going to have their third 4000-yard season in a row? And you failed to mention Jim Kelly.Warren Moon didn't get in on stat compilation. He made the Pro Bowl nine times. He finished top 5 in passing yardage seven times (#1 twice), top 5 in passing TDs five times (#1 once). Rivers has been performing as a top-5 QB consistently for three years now. The only other guys who can say that will also be in the Hall of Fame.
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