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30 years from now (1 Viewer)

Do you think Rivers will be a member of the PFHOF?

  • Yes

    Votes: 51 23.9%
  • No

    Votes: 162 76.1%

  • Total voters
    213
11. As for comparing Rivers to Bledsoe, you are making yourself look foolish. Rivers is much better than Bledsoe was, and it's not close.
Lots of QBs are better than Bledsoe was that won't make the HoF. The point is that there's nothing on his resume that makes the case for HoF other than he'll finish with a bunch of passing yards. How many times did Bledsoe lead the league in passing? Once. How many times has Rivers? Once. But Rivers will finish top 10 when he retires and have no other meaningful accomplishments if he career continues the way it has... just like Bledsoe. It's a perfect comparison. It's not like I compared him to Vinny Testaverde.

 
11. As for comparing Rivers to Bledsoe, you are making yourself look foolish. Rivers is much better than Bledsoe was, and it's not close.
Lots of QBs are better than Bledsoe was that won't make the HoF. The point is that there's nothing on his resume that makes the case for HoF other than he'll finish with a bunch of passing yards. How many times did Bledsoe lead the league in passing? Once. How many times has Rivers? Once. But Rivers will finish top 10 when he retires and have no other meaningful accomplishments if he career continues the way it has... just like Bledsoe. It's a perfect comparison. It's not like I compared him to Vinny Testaverde.
It is not a perfect comparison, it's a lousy comparison. I already posted that Rivers has a great chance to finish in the top 10 all time in many metrics, including passing yards, passing yards per game, total offense, passing TDs, completions, completion percentage, YPA, passer rating, and wins. I agree that HOF voters won't spend time looking at ANY/A and some other advanced metrics, but they will look at everything I just listed.

That shows that Rivers could finish with high rankings in both accumulated and rate statistics, making him more than a compiler. Bledsoe's rate statistics aren't very good; he was the definition of a compiler. Bledsoe was also a .500 QB, and Rivers will likely finish with more wins and a higher winning percentage.

Bledsoe's resume doesn't compare. :shrug:

 
I think Rivers and Tony Romo will get in the same year.
so never.
Pretty much. But Romo is only 31 and I would think in a much better offensive situation than Rivers right now. If anything Romo might be more likely to be better from this point on in his career. If he can keep his job.
Romo was clearly better than Rivers in 2007 and 2011, Rivers was clearly better in 2008 and 2009 and had a monster season in 2010 when Romo was hurt. Rivers is more than 1.5 years younger than Romo. Why would Romo be better from this point forward?
Austin, Bryant, Witten, Murray, Jones.
Not clearly better than Meachem, Floyd, Brown, Gates, Mathews IMO. :shrug:
Heh...

 
Annual offseason bump. Here are Rivers’ current all time rankings (regular season):

26 games started (160)
4 consecutive games started at QB (160)

25 wins (92)
21 comeback wins (21)
29 game winning drives (25)

18 pass attempts (5339)
19 pass attempts per game (32.6)
14 completions (3462)
11 completions per game (21.1)
7 completion percentage (64.8%)

16 total offense (40007)
14 passing yards (41447)
10 passing yards per game (252.7)
11 YPA (7.8)

11 passing TDs (281)
27 passing TD percentage (5.3%)

72 interceptions (135)
14 interception percentage (2.5%)

8 passer rating (95.5)
6 AY/A (7.68)
5 NY/A (6.97)
6 ANY/A (6.89)
52 Approximate Value — note this is all positions, not just QB
31 Approximate Value (weighted) — all positions

30 times sacked (325)
50 sack yards lost (1980)
44 sack percentage (5.74%)

34 fumbles (82)
29 fumbles recovered (28)

The sack and fumble numbers aren’t great at face value, but they aren’t bad when context is applied, i.e., considering the below average pass blocking he has received throughout most of his career.

His rate statistics are already very impressive, and in some cases elite. There is no reason to expect those to drop off, especially since there are reasons for optimism that his supporting cast on offense should be better this year than it has been in recent seasons.

If he plays out his contract (4 more seasons) and avoids major injuries, he is a lock to retire top 10 in games started, completions, passing yards, total offense, passing TDs, and wins, and top 15 in AV and weighted AV across all positions. Presumably most or all of his rate stats should remain strong as well.

That is extremely compelling. Is it enough for him to make the HOF if he does not win a Super Bowl? I think it's close, but ultimately will be tough for the HOF voters to leave him out, assuming he plays out his contract and stays healthy.

 
Back when this thread was started, much of the chatter was that he needed more playoff success to solidify his chances...and the Chargers only have one playoff appearance and win since then, the 27-10 win over the Bengals following the 2013 season, a game in which Rivers threw for 128 yards.  If anything, the last few years have hurt his chances, especially since the public at large has never really viewed him as a top tier QB.  Hard to make the HOF when you have almost no signature playoff moments, no MVPs, no All-Pros, etc. 

 
Top ten in passing yards should get a player into the hall or be some sort of nice barometer If we solely look at that, it's very unusual for him.

It looks like Carson, Eli, Ben, and Rivers will all re-sort the top ten and Romo will probably fall just shy.

I think Brees hanging on could hurt someone here. Even if we suppose Romo won't make it in (he may, just suppose) that's still seems almost greedy to expect 5 QBs to make it in at once. I'm torn though because if all five are top 10 all time well then they deserve to be.

I know SD fans are a little weird with Brees/Rivers stuff, just....he needs to go in first

 
Reading through the thread.  My "feel" is Big Ben has a lot of life left in him while Carson and Rivers seem nearing the end. It might be the contrast of nice WRs and losing seasons or maybe Carson playing with ol Fitz. Big Ben seems to have a lot more in the tank than the other 2004 guys.

I would have probably considered Rivers better years ago, I'm not sure today I would. 

There's a gap when a guy retires to digest everything and I'd probably need that here. There's a lingering feeling of recent seasons that needs to dissipate. 

My love for Antonio Brown- how will he be without Ben? LeVeon? If they can plug N play a replacement, Ben might not seem so special. 

Without that time to revisit, here's what I'd guess today-

Brees in and then Ben and Eli in, Rivers in on second try. Just a little hiccup because there will be a run of QBs.

Carson gets viewed as Bledsoe like or compiler as does Romo.

Worst thing that could happen to Rivers is probably Carson or Romo winning a Supe and retiring in glorious fashion. That could get one of them on his heels and make it closer.

 
Bri said:
Top ten in passing yards should get a player into the hall or be some sort of nice barometer If we solely look at that, it's very unusual for him.

It looks like Carson, Eli, Ben, and Rivers will all re-sort the top ten and Romo will probably fall just shy.

I think Brees hanging on could hurt someone here. Even if we suppose Romo won't make it in (he may, just suppose) that's still seems almost greedy to expect 5 QBs to make it in at once. I'm torn though because if all five are top 10 all time well then they deserve to be.

I know SD fans are a little weird with Brees/Rivers stuff, just....he needs to go in first
Drew Bledsoe and Vinnie Testaverde are both top 10 in passing yardage. You need more than that.

Rivers' rate stats are way better than either of those guys. But he does probably need a playoff run to get there.

 
Ghost Rider said:
Back when this thread was started, much of the chatter was that he needed more playoff success to solidify his chances...and the Chargers only have one playoff appearance and win since then, the 27-10 win over the Bengals following the 2013 season, a game in which Rivers threw for 128 yards.  If anything, the last few years have hurt his chances, especially since the public at large has never really viewed him as a top tier QB.  Hard to make the HOF when you have almost no signature playoff moments, no MVPs, no All-Pros, etc. 
I agree with this in general, though I don't think the public at large really matters, the HOF voters matter.

Assuming he plays out his contract and stays healthy doing so, and further assuming he does not reach a Super Bowl, his case will look something like this:

Pros:

  1. Top 10 in most counting and rate stats for QB, including both traditional and advanced stats.
  2. Strong leader with strong character. Well liked by teammates, coaches, and media.
  3. Durability -- currently #4 all-time in consecutive starts at QB, could finish as high as #2; started the AFCCG less than 1 week after ACL surgery.
  4. Should retire holding all franchise passing records and will arguably be viewed as the best QB in franchise history... which means he will arguably be viewed as better than HOFer Fouts, who also did not win a Super Bowl and yet was a very worthy HOFer.
Cons:

  1. Minimal postseason play and never reached a Super Bowl.
  2. Some peers (Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Brees) were clearly better.
  3. Other peers (Roethlisberger, Eli) from his draft class -- making the comparison particularly relevant -- each had sustained success and won 2 Super Bowls. IMO Rivers has been a better regular season QB than Eli and arguably also Ben, but their postseason success will elevate them above Rivers.
  4. 5 Pro Bowls and 2013 CBPOY but no other major honors (MVP, SBMVP, OPOY, All Pro).
I assume without looking it up that Ken Anderson is the only QB to date to achieve Pro #1 and not make the HOF, and he is the poster boy for why Rivers might not make it, particularly given he won an MVP, made the All Pro team, and led his team to a Super Bowl, three things Rivers has not done to date.

I wonder if the far more extensive popularity of the NFL and the associated increase in media coverage and national exposure would make a difference between how Anderson was judged vs. how Rivers will be judged. Similarly, I assume today's voters have a much greater understanding of advanced metrics, and I wonder if that will matter.

I suspect the voters won't look too harshly at Con #4, since they will recognize that Rivers happened to play the majority of his career (all of his career to date) in the same conference as Peyton and Brady, arguably 2 of the top 5 QBs of all-time. They may also acknowledge that East Coast media bias played a role (e.g., in 2008-2009), but I doubt that, since the HOF voters themselves will have been a part of it.

IMO Con #1 will be offset for the most part by Pro #4, a rather unique situation that applies to Rivers.

Con #2 doesn't preclude Rivers from making it. It is the golden era of QB play, so it is no slight to Rivers that several elite QBs have been playing at the same time.

Con #3 is really the problem. Bottom line, will the HOF voters vote in all 6 of the QBs named above plus a 7th QB from this era? If so, Rivers would be the 7th.

 
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Bri said:
My "feel" is Big Ben has a lot of life left in him while Carson and Rivers seem nearing the end
I don't see that with Rivers at all. Look at his splits in the first 8 vs. last 8 games in 2015:

  • Games 1-8: 69.8% completion percentage, 102.1 passer rating, 7.91 YPA, 2753 passing yards, 18 TDs, 7 interceptions, 19 sacks
  • Games 9-16: 62.0% completion percentage, 84.6 passer rating, 6.51 YPA, 2039 passing yards, 11 TDs, 6 interceptions, 21 sacks
After 8 games, he was on pace for 5506/36/14. That dropoff in the second half isn’t due to age, that is the result of decimated OL, non-existent running game, and injuries to WRs (Allen missed the last 8 games and Stevie Johnson missed 4 games in that period).

Bri said:
Worst thing that could happen to Rivers is probably Carson or Romo winning a Supe and retiring in glorious fashion. That could get one of them on his heels and make it closer.
Agree with this. Not sure 1 Super Bowl would be enough to get either of them in, but it is possible.

 
Good points, JWB. Bottom line: Rivers needs a Super Bowl appearance at least to have a great chance to get in, regardless of how good overall numbers look when he retires.  I don't think many will care if he has better numbers than Fouts, given how much passing stats have blown up.  

Oh, and I don't think Carson Palmer has a prayer of making it. He could win the Super Bowl this year and be the SB MVP and he still wouldn't make it.  

 
Annual offseason bump. Here are Rivers’ current all time rankings (regular season):

16 games started (176)
4 consecutive games started at QB (176)

18 wins (97)
21T comeback wins (22)
24T game winning drives (26)

15 pass attempts (5917)
20T pass attempts per game (32.9)
10 completions (3811)
15 completions per game (21.2)
10 completion percentage (64.4%)

12 total offense (44240)
12 passing yards (45833)
10 passing yards per game (254.6)
14T YPA (7.7)

8 passing TDs (314)
27T passing TD percentage (5.3%)

55 interceptions (156)
22T interception percentage (2.6%)

8 passer rating (94.7)
7 AY/A (7.62)
6 NY/A (6.96)
9 ANY/A (6.84)
28T Approximate Value (164) - note this is all positions, not just QB
22T Approximate Value (weighted) (128) - all positions

20T times sacked (361)
41 sack yards lost (2168)
47 sack percentage (5.75%)

25 fumbles (91)
25T fumbles recovered (31)

The sack and fumble numbers aren’t great at face value, but they aren’t bad when context is applied, i.e., considering the below average pass blocking he has received throughout most of his career.

His rate statistics are impressive, and in some cases elite. There is no reason to expect those to drop off, especially since there are reasons for optimism that his supporting cast on offense should be better this year than it has been in recent seasons. (Though I said the same thing last offseason...)

If he plays out his contract (3 more seasons) and avoids major injuries, he is a lock to retire top 10 in games started, completions, passing yards, total offense, passing TDs, and wins, and top 15 in AV and weighted AV across all positions. Presumably most or all of his rate stats should remain strong as well.

And it seems like he will play out his contract and perhaps beyond: Rivers on potential new QB: “They’re going to sit for a while”

That is compelling. Is it enough for him to make the HOF if he does not win a Super Bowl? I think it's close, but ultimately will be tough for the HOF voters to leave him out, assuming he plays out his contract and stays healthy.

 
I find it revealing that many of today's QBs rank so highly on career passing lists.  I think that can be explained by the way the game/officiating has changed rather than this being the golden era of great QBs.  The football HOF seems to have a different set of standards than MLB.  Maybe Rivers gets in based on his cumulative numbers of a long career.  I won't take a strong stance on one side or the other of that decision, although the lack of virtually any post-season story hurts his argument, IMO.

Curious though, what the OP things of Rivers' career now that so much is in the rear view mirror.

 
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Very good franchise qb. Not HOF. he was never really among the elite in any given season.  Almost a palmeiro type. 

 
8th all-time in TDs.  Wow.  And he will get to 6th easily, though there are active guys behind him that will or at least easily can pass him (Ben, Rodgers, Eli, maybe Ryan)

 
This is absolutely untrue. His play was elite in 2008-2010, it just wasn't recognized by the media as such. 
Statistically he was towards the top but he never gave the vibe, regardless of the media attention, of being better than Peyton, Rodgers or brees.  Maybe that was mostly his team but even there he was outshined by LT. 

 
This is absolutely untrue. His play was elite in 2008-2010, it just wasn't recognized by the media as such. 
Perhaps, but perception means a lot, and the media is who votes on the Hall.  I think he's gonna have a really tough time getting in, since he has no Super Bowl wins (or appearances), no real definitive playoff moments (playing with the torn ACL was gutsy, but they won the game without him), and his cumulative career numbers will probably be dismissed somewhat from playing in this era of crazy passing numbers.  It won't be fair, but I think that is what will ultimately happen with him, unless he wins himself a Super Bowl before it's all said and done.  Only 5 playoff appearances in 11 seasons (1 in the last 7) is a major stain.  

 
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Compiling normally references cumulative statistics. Rivers has outstanding rate statistics, which suggests that he has demonstrated quality as well as quantity. 
So you think he is who?  Dan Marino?  Archie Manning?   The guy simply doesn't win football games at an elite level - is that everyone else's fault?

 
The NFL will be known as the NFFL (National Flag Football League) and the QBs will still wear dresses. 

 
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So you think he is who?  Dan Marino?  Archie Manning?   The guy simply doesn't win football games at an elite level - is that everyone else's fault?
Teams win and lose. QB is typically more instrumental than other positions, but not fully responsible. Unfortunately for Rivers, he has played 10 of his 11 years as a starting QB for HCs Norv Turner and Mike McCoy. Unfortunately for Rivers, GMs AJ Smith and Tom Telesco allowed the roster around him to go from one of the best in the league to one of the worst in the league, though there are some signs that Telesco may be resuscitating it. But the HC issue is probably the biggest factor. Of all of the QBs in the HOF or likely to make the HOF, think about the HCs they played for, and none of them played for such a poor set of HCs for a decade.

Anyway, more to your point, he is comparable to Moon and Fouts, both HOFers.

Moon:

  • Career record is 102-101 in the regular season and 3-7 in the postseason. His teams never made it to a conference championship game.
  • Won 1 major award (1990 OPOY) and made 9 Pro Bowls.
  • Retired in the top 4 in all-time pass attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing TDs.
  • Some will say he got credit for CFL accomplishments, but I don't think so. It gets one sentence in his PFHOF bio. However, he probably did get credit for being African American, when there were no AA QBs in the HOF, and given that his race and the NFL's view of AA QBs at that time is viewed as what caused him to go to the CFL in the first place.
Fouts:

  • Career record is 86-84-1 in the regular season and 3-4 in the postseason. His teams made it to 2 conference championship games.
  • Won 1 major award (1982 OPOY), made 1st team All Pro 2 times, and made 6 Pro Bowls.
  • Retired in the top 4 in all-time pass attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing TDs.
  • Some will say he got credit for helping to establish innovative Air Coryell offense, but Coryell certainly gets the most credit for that.
Both of them have an edge in honors/awards over Rivers at this time, and Rivers isn't likely to reach as high as top 4 in those statistical categories, though he will probably reach top 8 or higher in an era where Favre, Peyton, et al. have reset the bars.

Like I've said, I think it will be close. He is in position to earn his way in over the next 3-5 years or cement that he falls short. :shrug:  

 
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Teams win and lose. QB is typically more instrumental than other positions, but not fully responsible. Unfortunately for Rivers, he has played 10 of his 11 years as a starting QB for HCs Norv Turner and Mike McCoy. Unfortunately for Rivers, GMs AJ Smith and Tom Telesco allowed the roster around him to go from one of the best in the league to one of the worst in the league, though there are some signs that Telesco may be resuscitating it. But the HC issue is probably the biggest factor. Of all of the QBs in the HOF or likely to make the HOF, think about the HCs they played for, and none of them played for such a poor set of HCs for a decade.

Anyway, more to your point, he is comparable to Moon and Fouts, both HOFers.

Moon:

  • Career record is 102-101 in the regular season and 3-7 in the postseason. His teams never made it to a conference championship game.
  • Won 1 major award (1990 OPOY) and made 9 Pro Bowls.
  • Retired in the top 4 in all-time pass attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing TDs.
  • Some will say he got credit for CFL accomplishments, but I don't think so. It gets one sentence in his PFHOF bio. However, he probably did get credit for being African American, when there were no AA QBs in the HOF, and given that his race and the NFL's view of AA QBs at that time is viewed as what caused him to go to the CFL in the first place.
Fouts:

  • Career record is 86-84-1 in the regular season and 3-4 in the postseason. His teams never made it to a conference championship game.
  • Won 1 major award (1982 OPOY), made 1st team All Pro 2 times, and made 6 Pro Bowls.
  • Retired in the top 4 in all-time pass attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing TDs.
  • Some will say he got credit for helping to establish innovative Air Coryell offense, but Coryell certainly gets the most credit for that.
Both of them have an edge in honors/awards over Rivers at this time, and Rivers isn't likely to reach as high as top 4 in those statistical categories, though he will probably reach top 8 or higher in an era where Favre, Peyton, et al. have reset the bars.

Like I've said, I think it will be close. He is in position to earn his way in over the next 3-5 years or cement that he falls short. :shrug:  
Fouts-led teams made it to two AFC Championship Games (1981 & 1982)

 
Looking at this by HOF induction timeline:

  • Aikman and Moon were inducted in the HOF class of 2006.
  • Favre was the next QB inducted, in the HOF class of 2016.
  • Warner is in the HOF class of 2017.
  • Peyton will be in the HOF class of 2021 (first ballot).
  • Brady and Brees will both make it in the first HOF classes in which they are eligible. Somewhere in the classes of 2022 to 2026.
  • I assume both Eli and Roethlisberger will make it, though not necessarily first ballot. They will presumably make it somewhere in the classes of 2022 to 2028.
  • Rodgers will make it, presumably first ballot, but probably not until the class of 2030 or later.
So in a span of about 22 HOF classes, from the class of 2007 to the class of 2028, that is 7 QBs who will be inducted if there are no others inducted as senior nominees. In the preceding 22 HOF classes, from the class of 1985 to the class of 2006, 15 QBs were inducted, even though fewer HOFers were inducted overall (average of 5.1 HOFers per class). Interesting to see such a contrast given the explosion of passing in the NFL. It truly does seem like there has been a golden era of QB play over the past 15-20 years, and it isn't just due to the rule changes, it is also due to several of the best QBs of all time playing at the same time.

Beyond Rodgers, there is not an easily identifiable group of young QBs who seem like locks to make the HOF. Guys like Luck, Wilson, Newton, and Ryan certainly have that potential, but they have a long way to go.

All of this could help Rivers' chances. As an aside, I would think this helps the chances of a guy like Ken Anderson to make it in that window as well.

 
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Looking at this by HOF induction timeline:

  • Aikman and Moon were inducted in the HOF class of 2006.
  • Favre was the next QB inducted, in the HOF class of 2016.
  • Warner is in the HOF class of 2017.
  • Peyton will be in the HOF class of 2021 (first ballot).
  • Brady and Brees will both make it in the first HOF classes in which they are eligible. Somewhere in the classes of 2022 to 2026.
  • I assume both Eli and Roethlisberger will make it, though not necessarily first ballot. They will presumably make it somewhere in the classes of 2022 to 2028.
  • Rodgers will make it, presumably first ballot, but probably not until the class of 2030 or later.
So in a span of about 22 HOF classes, from the class of 2007 to the class of 2028, that is 7 QBs who will be inducted if there are no others inducted as senior nominees. As an aside, I would think this helps the chances of a guy like Ken Anderson to make it in that window.

In the preceding 22 HOF classes, from the class of 1985 to the class of 2006, 15 QBs were inducted. Interesting to see such a contrast given the explosion of passing in the NFL. It truly does seem like there has been a golden era of QB play over the past 15-20 years, and it isn't just due to the rule changes, it is also due to several of the best QBs of all time playing at the same time.

Beyond Rodgers, there is not an easily identifiable group of young QBs who seem like locks to make the HOF. Guys like Luck, Wilson, Newton, and Ryan certainly have that potential, but they have a long way to go.

All of this could help Rivers' chances.
Agreed on Ben but a really good argument can be made for rivers over Eli, considering everything.  Funny how those two are linked.  Those 3 might be the best trio of QBs ever drafted together. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
Teams win and lose. QB is typically more instrumental than other positions, but not fully responsible. Unfortunately for Rivers, he has played 10 of his 11 years as a starting QB for HCs Norv Turner and Mike McCoy. Unfortunately for Rivers, GMs AJ Smith and Tom Telesco allowed the roster around him to go from one of the best in the league to one of the worst in the league, though there are some signs that Telesco may be resuscitating it. But the HC issue is probably the biggest factor. Of all of the QBs in the HOF or likely to make the HOF, think about the HCs they played for, and none of them played for such a poor set of HCs for a decade.

Anyway, more to your point, he is comparable to Moon and Fouts, both HOFers.

Moon:

  • Career record is 102-101 in the regular season and 3-7 in the postseason. His teams never made it to a conference championship game.
  • Won 1 major award (1990 OPOY) and made 9 Pro Bowls.
  • Retired in the top 4 in all-time pass attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing TDs.
  • Some will say he got credit for CFL accomplishments, but I don't think so. It gets one sentence in his PFHOF bio. However, he probably did get credit for being African American, when there were no AA QBs in the HOF, and given that his race and the NFL's view of AA QBs at that time is viewed as what caused him to go to the CFL in the first place.
Fouts:

  • Career record is 86-84-1 in the regular season and 3-4 in the postseason. His teams made it to 2 conference championship games.
  • Won 1 major award (1982 OPOY), made 1st team All Pro 2 times, and made 6 Pro Bowls.
  • Retired in the top 4 in all-time pass attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing TDs.
  • Some will say he got credit for helping to establish innovative Air Coryell offense, but Coryell certainly gets the most credit for that.
Both of them have an edge in honors/awards over Rivers at this time, and Rivers isn't likely to reach as high as top 4 in those statistical categories, though he will probably reach top 8 or higher in an era where Favre, Peyton, et al. have reset the bars.

Like I've said, I think it will be close. He is in position to earn his way in over the next 3-5 years or cement that he falls short. :shrug:  
I don't think it is even remotely close.   But appreciate your perspective and enjoy reading your rationale a great deal.  I'm too lazy to back up my view - IMO it is slam dunk, patently obvious that he shouldn't make it.

 
I don't think it is even remotely close.   But appreciate your perspective and enjoy reading your rationale a great deal.  I'm too lazy to back up my view - IMO it is slam dunk, patently obvious that he shouldn't make it.
To be clear, I don't think he would get in today. The hypothetical evaluation is based on him playing 3+ more years at a high level but still not winning a Super Bowl (since IMO if he wins one, he is in).

 
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-OZ- said:
Agreed on Ben but a really good argument can be made for rivers over Eli, considering everything.  Funny how those two are linked.  Those 3 might be the best trio of QBs ever drafted together. 
Elway, Marino and Kelly is tough to beat.

 
To be clear, I don't think he would get in today. The hypothetical evaluation is based on him playing 3+ more years at a high level but still not winning a Super Bowl (since IMO if he wins one, he is in).
Can we just assume he will play any more years at a high level? He didn't play at one in 2016 when he was 14th in QBR and lead the league in INTs.  A "high level" to me means relative to the other starting QBs in the league, and he wasn't even one of the 10 best QBs last season.  I still think he can be really good if guys around him can stay healthy for a change, but a lot needs to go right for him in the next few years for him to have any real chance at the Hall, IMO. 

Note: you always bring good facts and analogies to these discussions, JWB.  :thumbup:   :thumbup:

 
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Can we just assume he will play any more years at a high level? He didn't play at one in 2016 when he was 14th in QBR and lead the league in INTs.  A "high level" to me means relative to the other starting QBs in the league, and he wasn't even one of the 10 best QBs last season.  I still think he can be really good if guys around him can stay healthy for a change, but a lot needs to go right for him in the next few years for him to have any real chance at the Hall, IMO. 
You're right, we cannot assume that. As you mentioned, he has had extraordinarily bad luck over the past couple seasons.

  • In 2015, Rivers was on pace for 5500/36/14 through 8 games, then lost Allen, some games from other WRs, and had his starting OL miss 22 games in the second half.
  • In 2016, he lost WR3 Stevie Johnson, RB3 Oliver, and TE3 Cumberland in preseason, Allen in week 1, and Woodhead in week 2, and #2 WR Benjamin played much of the season with a PCL injury. He was forced to target raw second year WR Tyrell Williams 119 times, and 9 of his 21 interceptions came within those targets. IMO more than half of those were on Williams, not Rivers.
Nevertheless, QBs are judged on their play, not on what their play might have been in other situations. I am hopeful the team will have better luck with injuries leading to more success on offense under a new coaching staff.

If he doesn't play at least 3 more years at a high level (and doesn't win a SB), I don't think he will make the HOF.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Teams win and lose. QB is typically more instrumental than other positions, but not fully responsible. Unfortunately for Rivers, he has played 10 of his 11 years as a starting QB for HCs Norv Turner and Mike McCoy. Unfortunately for Rivers, GMs AJ Smith and Tom Telesco allowed the roster around him to go from one of the best in the league to one of the worst in the league, though there are some signs that Telesco may be resuscitating it. But the HC issue is probably the biggest factor. Of all of the QBs in the HOF or likely to make the HOF, think about the HCs they played for, and none of them played for such a poor set of HCs for a decade.

Anyway, more to your point, he is comparable to Moon and Fouts, both HOFers.

Moon:

  • Career record is 102-101 in the regular season and 3-7 in the postseason. His teams never made it to a conference championship game.
  • Won 1 major award (1990 OPOY) and made 9 Pro Bowls.
  • Retired in the top 4 in all-time pass attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing TDs.
  • Some will say he got credit for CFL accomplishments, but I don't think so. It gets one sentence in his PFHOF bio. However, he probably did get credit for being African American, when there were no AA QBs in the HOF, and given that his race and the NFL's view of AA QBs at that time is viewed as what caused him to go to the CFL in the first place.
Moon was throwing for 4600 yards in an era when no one was throwing for 4600 yards.  Rivers has been throwing for 4600 yards in an era where a ton of people are throwing for 4600 yards.

How do their numbers look relative to their peers.  IE how many times has Rivers led the league in passing yards or passing TDs vs. how many times Moon did it?  How many times top 3 for each of them?  

 
Moon was throwing for 4600 yards in an era when no one was throwing for 4600 yards.  Rivers has been throwing for 4600 yards in an era where a ton of people are throwing for 4600 yards.

How do their numbers look relative to their peers.  IE how many times has Rivers led the league in passing yards or passing TDs vs. how many times Moon did it?  How many times top 3 for each of them?  
Moon played 17 seasons in the NFL, including 15 seasons as a starter. So far, Rivers has played 13 seasons in the NFL, including 11 seasons as a starter.

Passing yards:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in passing yards 10 times. Here are those finishes, sorted from best to last: 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 7, 7, 10.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in passing yards 9 times. Here are those finishes, sorted from best to last: 1, 2, 5, 5, 5. 6. 8. 9.
Passing TDs:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in passing TDs 9 times: 1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 7, 7, 8, 9.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in passing TDs 9 times: 1, 4, 4, 5, 6, 8, 8, 8, 9.
Passer Rating:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in passer rating 6 times: 2, 4, 4, 5, 7, 10.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in passer rating 5 times: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8.
Interceptions:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in interceptions 8 times: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in interceptions 6 times: 1, 1, 3, 9, 9, 10.
Fumbles:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in fumbles 11 times: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 6, 6, 8, 9.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in fumbles 4 times: 1, 5, 5, 9.
Sacks:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in sacks 7 times: 6, 7, 7, 8, 9, 10, 10.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in sacks 5 times: 2, 3, 8, 9, 10.
Looks like Moon was better relative to his peers in passing yards and TDs, but I suspect not by as much as you thought based on your post. Moon was also worse at turnovers and sacks by at least as much of a margin.

 
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Moon played 17 seasons in the NFL, including 15 seasons as a starter. So far, Rivers has played 13 seasons in the NFL, including 11 seasons as a starter.

Passing yards:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in passing yards 10 times. Here are those finishes, sorted from best to last: 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 7, 7, 10.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in passing yards 9 times. Here are those finishes, sorted from best to last: 1, 2, 5, 5, 5. 6. 8. 9.
Passing TDs:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in passing TDs 9 times: 1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 7, 7, 8, 9.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in passing TDs 9 times: 1, 4, 4, 5, 6, 8, 8, 8, 9.
Passer Rating:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in passer rating 6 times: 2, 4, 4, 5, 7, 10.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in passer rating 5 times: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8.
Interceptions:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in interceptions 8 times: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in interceptions 6 times: 1, 1, 3, 9, 9, 10.
Fumbles:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in fumbles 11 times: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 6, 6, 8, 9.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in fumbles 4 times: 1, 5, 5, 9.
Sacks:

  • Moon finished in the top 10 in sacks 7 times: 6, 7, 7, 8, 9, 10, 10.
  • Rivers has finished in the top 10 in sacks 5 times: 2, 3, 8, 9, 10.
Looks like Moon was better relative to his peers in passing yards and TDs, but I suspect not by as much as you thought based on your post. Moon was also worse at turnovers and sacks by at least as much of a margin.
Agree.  Moon shouldn't be in the Hall. ;)

 
This seems to indicate Rivers' current contract may not be his last:

(Rotoworld) Philip Rivers says he hopes to still be playing and with the Chargers when the new Inglewood stadium opens in 2020.

Analysis: Rivers reportedly was not excited about the franchise relocating, but he seems to be embracing the change. "I hope to still be playing football in 2020, and certainly I hope I'm still playing here," Rivers said. "And hopefully I'm still playing well enough and we've won enough football games that I will be able to trot out there in 2020 in that new stadium." Rivers' contract runs out in 2019 and he will be 38 by the time the new stadium opens, but if he is still interested in playing, the Chargers will almost certainly be willing to keep him around.
That implies that he would play another 4+ seasons. Given the expected improvement in the OL going forward (finally!) and the strong set of targets, he seems to stand a good chance of playing at a high level for some/all of those seasons, which should make him a more interesting HOF case.

 
Annual offseason bump. Here are Rivers’ current all time rankings (regular season):

13 games started (192)
4 consecutive games started at QB (192)

11 wins (106)
17T comeback wins (24)
22T game winning drives (28)

12 pass attempts (6492)
19 pass attempts per game (33.1)
7 completions (4171)
14T completions per game (21.3)
10 completion percentage (64.2%)*

9 total offense (46833)
9 passing yards (50348)
11 passing yards per game (256.9)*
10T YPA (7.8)*

6T passing TDs (342)
27T passing TD percentage (5.3%)*

47 interceptions (166)
22T interception percentage (2.6%)*

8 passer rating (94.8)*
8 AY/A (7.66)*
5 NY/A (6.99)*
6T ANY/A (6.90)*

19 Approximate Value, all positions (178)
8 Approximate Value, QBs (178)
15T Approximate Value, all positions (weighted) (135)
8T Approximate Value, QBs (weighted) (135)

18 times sacked (379)
39 sack yards lost (2288)
41 sack percentage (5.52%)*

19T fumbles (99)
13T fumbles recovered (36)

The sack and fumble numbers aren’t great at face value, but they aren’t bad when context is applied, i.e., considering the below average pass blocking he has received throughout most of his career.

His rate statistics are impressive, and in some cases elite. Of the 10 rate statistics marked above with an asterisk (*), he is top 11 all-time in 7 of them. There is no reason to expect those rate statistics to drop off.

As for accumulated statistics, he is already top 9 in completions, passing yards, passing TDs, and total offense. If he plays out his contract (2 more seasons) and avoids major injuries, he is a lock to also retire top 10 in games started and wins, and top 15 in AV and weighted AV across all positions, and he is in position to pass both Mannings and be #2 behind only Favre in consecutive starts at QB. If he plays 3 more seasons, he could pass Marino and retire #5 in both passing yards and passing TDs, behind only Peyton, Favre, Brees, and Brady.

There is no reason to believe his play is slipping. In 2017, he had 4515 passing yards (#2), 28 passing TDs (#5T), and just 10 interceptions and made his 7th Pro Bowl. His YPA of 7.9 was #4 in the NFL and his best since 2013. His interception percentage of 1.7% was #9 in the NFL and the best of his career, which was particularly good to see since he led the league with 21 interceptions last season. All of this just goes to show how important supporting cast injuries are... people who don't follow the Chargers probably don't realize the huge number of injuries they had to the offensive skill positions and OL over the past 4 seasons. This year, they were healthier, and Rivers' performance was better as a result.

For whatever reason, Rivers really struggled in both games against the Chiefs this year, but he torched the rest of the league... in the other 14 games, here were his numbers: 320/499 (64.1%) for 4051 passing yards (8.1 ypa, 289 ypg), 27 TDs (5.4%), and 4 interceptions (0.8%), and 14 sacks with a 104.1 passer rating. That is All Pro caliber play.

He needs to play better against the division rival Chiefs, but this season supports the idea that he can continue to play very well for 2-3 more seasons.

Anyway, is all of this enough for him to make the HOF if he does not win a Super Bowl? I think it's close, but ultimately it will be tough for the HOF voters to leave him out, assuming he plays 2-3 more seasons and stays healthy.

 
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Modern Era Quarterbacks in the Pro Football Hall of Fame (26)

Troy Aikman 1989-2000

George Blanda (Also PK) 1949-1958, 1960-1975

Terry Bradshaw 1970-1983

Len Dawson 1957-1975

John Elway 1983-1998

Brett Favre 1991-2010

Dan Fouts 1973-1987

Otto Graham 1946-1955

Bob Griese 1967-1980

Sonny Jurgensen 1957-1974

Jim Kelly 1986-1996

Bobby Layne 1948-1962

Dan Marino 1983-1999

Joe Montana 1979-1994

Warren Moon 1984-2000

Joe Namath 1965-1977

Ken Stabler 1970-1984

Bart Starr 1956-1971

Roger Staubach 1969-1979

Fran Tarkenton 1961-1978

Y.A. Tittle 1948-1964

Johnny Unitas 1956-1973

Norm Van Brocklin 1949-1960

Kurt Warner 1998-2009

Bob Waterfield 1945-1952

Steve Young 1985-1999
Bolded are peers ahead of him or post-1978 QBs I thought were better.

Guys who should go in before Rivers:

  • Peyton Manning
  • Tom Brady
  • Drew Brees
  • Aaron Rodgers
  • Ben Roethlisberger 
He's a compiler. He has had his moments, but I can't say I've ever thought of him as elite.

Interesting case study to me personally because it's basically the Stafford argument in 5 years.

 
No I dont think Rivers is a HOFer unless he either wins a super bowl or plays like 3-4 more years at a really high level.  

He may be better than SOME guys in the HOF, but winning has to at least be a factor for a QB.

 
7 Pro Bowls, 6th in TDs, 28th AV (9th among QB), Top ten all-time in virtually every passing category.

FTR I’m in agreement, but I don’t think it’s as ludicrous as it seemed in 2010 when @Chase Stuart began the poll.
It's even more ridiculous now than in 2010.  The Chargers have done nothing since then, other than watch Rivers compile stats and meltdown in big games.

 
7 Pro Bowls, 6th in TDs, 28th AV (9th among QB), Top ten all-time in virtually every passing category.

FTR I’m in agreement, but I don’t think it’s as ludicrous as it seemed in 2010 when @Chase Stuart began the poll.
The other stats are impressive but number of Pro Bowls doesn't mean a whole lot.  Some of the QBs that have played in the Pro Bowl didn't even have good seasons in the year they made it.

 

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