Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
What is the worst dynasty trade you have been offered? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter eakfootball
- Start date
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
This is a 16-team dyno, QRWWTFF DD (it is IDP, but barely and only 2 spots, very little value).
Got this gem first:
T.J. Ward (DB - DEN)
Carson Palmer (QB - ARI)
Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
-for my-
DeMarco Murray (RB - DAL)
Teddy Bridgewater (QB - MIN)
His note: This would solve your quandary at QB. Locker might soon be replaced, if he starts slow. You also get your third good DF and Luck's favorite TE. I get Murray (a good player) and potential in Teddy.
Rejected with a nice "No thank you". Received this "better" offer from him.
Carson Palmer (QB - ARI)
Jermaine Kearse (WR - SEA)
Chris Borland (LB - SF)
-for my-
DeMarco Murray (RB - DAL)
Teddy Bridgewater (QB - MIN)
Cody Latimer (WR - DEN)
His note: You might actually like this one better? You still get Palmer and Borland, which solve two compelling problems. I get Murray and Bridgewater. If you look at the 2014 projections, I think you'll see the benefit.
Got this gem first:
T.J. Ward (DB - DEN)
Carson Palmer (QB - ARI)
Dwayne Allen (TE - IND)
-for my-
DeMarco Murray (RB - DAL)
Teddy Bridgewater (QB - MIN)
His note: This would solve your quandary at QB. Locker might soon be replaced, if he starts slow. You also get your third good DF and Luck's favorite TE. I get Murray (a good player) and potential in Teddy.
Rejected with a nice "No thank you". Received this "better" offer from him.
Carson Palmer (QB - ARI)
Jermaine Kearse (WR - SEA)
Chris Borland (LB - SF)
-for my-
DeMarco Murray (RB - DAL)
Teddy Bridgewater (QB - MIN)
Cody Latimer (WR - DEN)
His note: You might actually like this one better? You still get Palmer and Borland, which solve two compelling problems. I get Murray and Bridgewater. If you look at the 2014 projections, I think you'll see the benefit.
Last edited by a moderator:
Gawain
Footballguy
Do you only have Locker at QB? Why would you care about Luck's favorite TE? Both of those offers are tremendously bad.
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
There's been plenty of talk about whether or not to be offended or insulted by bad trades... I lean toward just brushing it off and assuming the other owner values players differently. But this guy continues to send me these kind of offers. What kills me is the extremely lame explanations and embellishment of fact.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
He has Bridgewater too, at the very least.Gawain said:
DoubleG
Footballguy
Every now and then I wade into this thread only to realize something I re-realize every time I wade into this thread:
Most of these "horrible" offers are only horrible if the owner posting here gets the absolute best production out of his players and the absolute worst possible production from the players the "idiot" offered. As soon as you do the reverse (or actually look at both sides of the trade from a fairly objective standpoint) the trades are often decent.
Don't get me wrong - I am guilty of the same. Everyone over values their own players - heck that's why you own them!! Because you see their upside.
Do some people try to rip other owners off? Absolutely. Are most of the trades in this thread an obvious rip off? Not in the least.
Most of these "horrible" offers are only horrible if the owner posting here gets the absolute best production out of his players and the absolute worst possible production from the players the "idiot" offered. As soon as you do the reverse (or actually look at both sides of the trade from a fairly objective standpoint) the trades are often decent.
Don't get me wrong - I am guilty of the same. Everyone over values their own players - heck that's why you own them!! Because you see their upside.
Do some people try to rip other owners off? Absolutely. Are most of the trades in this thread an obvious rip off? Not in the least.
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
Locker, RG3, Bridge.This morning he dropped Borland since I didn't buy the story. Lol
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
True to an extent. Though look at my post for example... Is there a scenario where Palmer is a better dynasty asset than Bridgewater? Maybe a 10% chance. Is there a scenario where Kearse is a better dynasty asset than Latimer? I'd mark it at a 20% chance. Is there a chance that Borland is a better dynasty asset than Murray where IDPs are not valuable? Less than 1% chance. That's an extremely hard to sell position when ALL 3 are poor comps.
r0llin_game
Footballguy
I inquired about Calvin in a league where I could definitely afford him, received this offer almost a week after asking about him.
Receive: Philip Rivers, Calvin Johnson, Cecil Shorts, Greg Olsen
I give: Matt Stafford, Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffrey, Jimmy Graham
I replied telling him that's way too much, that I have Jimmy a few spots behind Calvin, and Alshon a few spots behind Jimmy. He sends me another offer, that's still t too much better, but it at least wasn't worse.
Receive: Calvin Johnson, Cecil Shorts, Julius Thomas
I give: Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffrey, Jimmy Graham
Receive: Philip Rivers, Calvin Johnson, Cecil Shorts, Greg Olsen
I give: Matt Stafford, Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffrey, Jimmy Graham
I replied telling him that's way too much, that I have Jimmy a few spots behind Calvin, and Alshon a few spots behind Jimmy. He sends me another offer, that's still t too much better, but it at least wasn't worse.
Receive: Calvin Johnson, Cecil Shorts, Julius Thomas
I give: Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffrey, Jimmy Graham
Henry Ford
Footballguy
I like to pick the guy up off the waiver wire in that situation.slackjawedyokel said:
DoubleG
Footballguy
Actually, yours was the one that reminded me.slackjawedyokel said:
First off, you conveniently left off Dwayne Allen - in many circles he is easily a top 12-15 fantasy TE in dynasty. FBG's Bloom has him top 10 in dynasty.
2nd - your Palmer/Bridgewater comparison is not helpful as I don't know your roster. If you are in "win now" mode, Palmer is probably a better choice. If you are not (and won't be for at least a year or two), then sure, Bridgewater might make more sense...but still hasn't played a down in the NFL. A siilar argument can be made for Latimer/Kearse. Sure, Latimer is ranked higher - but is a rookie. Barring injury and/or extended missed time from Welker, he wont see the field much this season - and when he does, he will be down the list behind D.Thomas, J. Thomas, Welker, and maybe even Sanders. Kearse, on other hand is experienced, and has only to compete with Harvin and Baldwin for catches.
I don't play in IDP leagues.
My point is, it's hardly "the worst dynasty trade" - and, if your in "win now" mode, might actually make sense - especially if you believe what we saw out of Kearse in preseason and think Welker will be alright, or like Dwayne Allen as much as Bloom does.
I understand why you don't like the deal - but also see why he offered it.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Both of those offers are terrible and easily worthy of this thread. I feel like you might be missing the DeMarco Murray part.
DoubleG
Footballguy
You are correct - the Murray part makes these more one-sided. But again, the offer included an IDP (which I admit I don't know the value of, as the scoring /rosters was never listed) and D. Allen. If you think Murray is going to put up numbers like last year, you are correct - that's not nearly enough. However, if you think Murray is injury prone and is going to put up numbers like 2011 & 2012, or is going to give up touches to Dunbar (or even a healthy Ryan Williams) - and you are deep at RB (again, the OP never posted his roster), then it is hardly "terrible and easily worthy of this thread".
And you'll notice that the offer included an explanation - which seems to indicate that the OP is in need of an IDP and a QB to compete this season. How badly those needs actually are dictate the value - not the rankings of players in a vacuum.
You can have a roster filled with players who have high upside or who are ranked high in dynasty rankings - but someone is going to win this year and "championship banners fly forever" - and the check's always cash. The point being that if the OP's team is ready to win now - and all he needs are those two other spots solidified (and say he has ADP, Doug Martin and Shane Vereen) - why NOT trade Murray for a shot to win it all this season?
You don't get money for having a great team on paper - not even in a dynasty league. Someone is getting paid at the end of this season. If the OP has weaknesses and doesn't want it to him, that's fine. But that doesn't make the trade automatically terrible.
Last edited by a moderator:
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
I get it. You are playing devil's advocate which is helpful when trying to look at a situation. But I will tell you in this case, those needs he expressed in the note are not actually needs... he manufactured them to bolster his ridiculous offer. Regarding the IDP aspect, the scoring is basically useless this year as each team starts 2 guys, and the scoring variation is minimal. Not true IDP at all and the 2 IDP guys he offered are both below the rosterable level in this particular league. The IDP's are not kept and are redrafted every year, and only start two. Because I know you are simply playing DA, I'm not going to argue or justify why I think these offers are horrible, but they are certainly the worst I have received this season (already engaged in well over 100 trades/negotiations).
Also, I am in rebuild mode, probably looking at 2 years away from the top as of right now. I get what you are saying about many of these trades not being the "worst", but if you have to really stretch an argument, squint your eyes, and turn your head to the side to justify a position, it's probably pretty bad.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
It's weird that you didn't notice DeMarco Murray was in the deal, but it still doesn't change your opinion.
I wholeheartedly disagree that player or trade value is "dictated" by team need. You may run your teams like that, but I think that's short-sighted, to say the least. It matters less how Murray is valued by the OP and more how he's valued by the rest of the league. Your position seems to be that as long as a trade offer addresses a need your team has, it cannot be considered terrible. I guess we'll just agree to disagree. If I have zero quarterbacks on my league, it doesn't make it not terrible for you to offer me Geno Smith for Jamal Charles.
And trying to paint this as being overly concerned with having a good team "on paper" vs "going for it" is a mischaracterization of the issue. You can certainly trade Murray in a "go for it" fashion. That doesn't mean giving him away for Carson freaking Palmer and an average tight end. Why? Because you can get more for DeMarco Murray. You can get someone better than Carson Palmer and better than Dwayne Allen. Because he's a young, bell-cow running back on what is usually a high octane offense. You should know that you can get more, it's part of your job as a dynasty owner to know the rough market value of your players.
And if you own Murray and think he's over-rated because of 2013, which you don't think he will repeat, that's fine. Sell him. But you sell him at the over-rated price, not at what you actually think he's going to do. That's selling high 101.
So yeah, I guess some people don't think that terrible offers exist. That's fine, but you probably don't need to read this thread, lol. There's not really a scenario in which those offers aren't terrible IMO.
If you think he's going to struggle like he did before last season, that's great. By all means, sell him. But you don't sell hi
DoubleG
Footballguy
Fair enough - being in "rebuild" mode, these are indeed horrible offers for you. In that case it is certainly worthy of this thread.
My more general point is that many of the posters in this thread only see the offer from their perspective - which, like many of us in regards to our FF players, is rarely objective.
I am not suggesting that there are not owners out there who do indeed try to rip others off (and it seems that your case could be one of those) - just that when looking at trade offers, ESPECIALLY in dynasty with all of the variables (i.e. team need, win now vs. win later, upside versus proven production, etc.) it is often not nearly as clear cut as it is in redraft - which is why I love dynasty leagues.
Warpig
Footballguy
I just got this sweet offer today (16 tm salary cap, IDP, PPR). Keep in mind that I am comfortable with my cap sitch and I'm in the money every year in this league...won the championship 2 out of 3 years. The guy that made the offer has the most cap space in the league...
I give: Jarrett Boykin, 2015 3rd rnd rookie, and 2015 4th rnd rookie (Boykin is only $1 for 3 more years)
He gives: Bilal Powell ($18)
I give: Jarrett Boykin, 2015 3rd rnd rookie, and 2015 4th rnd rookie (Boykin is only $1 for 3 more years)
He gives: Bilal Powell ($18)
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This started on Sunday. Waivers close on August 1st. I had Alex Henery as my kicker, so I have no kicker. I reached out to the owner in the league with 2 kickers. He sends an offer of Mason Crosby for Mark Ingram or Mason Crosby and Crabtree for Antonio Brown. I am not mad at him for trying, I would have done the same thing to see if the other owner panicked. I email him back tell him I will give blind bid dollars for a kicker and not a player. He tells me he needs to upgrade his receivers and continues to send the same crappy offers every couple of days.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Other one I got recently
My Doug Martin, Kelvin Benjamin, Eric Ebron and a 2015 2nd
For his Gio Bernard.
My Doug Martin, Kelvin Benjamin, Eric Ebron and a 2015 2nd
For his Gio Bernard.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I am surprised anyone would say that. I have Gio and Martin in the same tier of running with Gio just slightly higher. Even FGB has them only a few spots apart. So to move up say 5 spots it should cost a couple of 1st round rookies and a future second?
Spike
Footballguy
Niles Standish
Footballguy
I think I'd accept this 2nd trade personally. If you've never been offered a worse trade you must not be offered many trades. Then again I'm not very high on Jeffrey. He's good but I think last year will look like an outlier when it's all said and done.
If you're going for possibly the #1 guy in dynasty you have to give up a stud or two.
r0llin_game
Footballguy
LOL, what? AJG is pretty much the #1 consensus guy. But I have Alshon at 6, Jimmy is a first round start up pick, and Floyd is around my WR10/11. So yea, I understand the theory of giving up studs for studs, but no where is that even close. Shorts feels like roster fodder in this trade.
Where I value this trade...
Calvin => Jimmy
Alshon >>> JT
Floyd >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Cecil.
So in theory, this trade is brutal.
5Rings
Lurker
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Truly bad trade offers aren't so much about consensus value as they are about the range of what could be considered "rational preferences". By consensus value, Martin/Benjy/Ebron/2nd is worth a lot more than Gio Bernard, but could we imagine a hypothetical rational owner who would disagree? Are there any reasonable, well-intentioned owners who would come come down on the other side?
Looking at the staff consensus rankings, James Brimacombe has Gio at 13th overall and Martin at 33rd. He has Kelvin Benjamin at 65th, and Eric Ebron is not among his top 75 players. Looking at his positional rankings instead of his overall rankings, he's got it as RB3 for RB9, WR33, TE13, and a future 2nd. I don't mean to speak for James Brimacombe, but I can say that he is a very rational, reasonable, well-intentioned owner, and his implied rankings suggest that's a relatively fair swap- or at the very least, it's one small counter offer away from being a relatively fair swap. Brimacombe is outside of the consensus on this, but again, this is never about what is consensus... this is about what falls somewhere on a spectrum of reasonableness, and I think that trade falls on the spectrum. Maybe way out on the fringes of that spectrum, far enough away from the center that I'd raise an eyebrow and respond that we obviously valued the players involved very differently, but not so far that I would assume gross incompetence or nefarious intent.
I would not make that trade. In fact, I fall on the opposite end of the spectrum from Brimacombe, and I would prefer Martin to Gio straight up. But it seems clear to me that, if the offering owner is somewhere in the same plane of reasonableness that is inhabited by James Brimacombe, that deal might represent an earnest, well-intentioned, and apparently balanced opening offer. It's not, say, asking for Shane Vereen + 3 future firsts + 3 other future picks for C.J. Spiller. Or the guy who was asked to trade down 8 picks in the 5th round of a startup, trade down 8 more picks in the 9th round, give up a future 3rd rounder, and receive literally nothing in return. Or Levine Toilolo and Andre Holmes for Bishop Sankey. Just to name a few offers from the last page or so that would clearly not fall anywhere on the plane of well-intentioned reasonableness.
When I think "worst trades I've ever been offered", that's what comes to mind- the kind of trades where I literally cannot envision any owner who would accept the other side of that trade. Not just stuff that deviates from market value, but stuff that defies all comprehension as to why they thought for a second anyone would ever consider hitting "accept" on that deal.
BigJim®
Footballguy
I don't like the trade personally, so just getting that out of the way. But I do think there is something to what 5Rings says about this not belonging in a worst trade offer thread. I'll probably be blasted for saying this, but there is definitely some murkiness to the actual value of rookies, even 1st round rookies. I overvalue them, many people do. However, I did some research on inaugural dynasty drafts which either allowed selection of named rookies, or selection of rookie draft slots, and it's very interesting. Here was a typical example (This draft was in March, so ignore the names, as the main point is actual value inaugural drafters place on 1st round rookies):
[SIZE=medium]I find it very difficult to reconcile the actual value of rookies when they are integrated within an inaugural dynasty draft vs. the outrage I see when FFers are offered that same value in trade. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]In the above post naming Benjamin/Ebron, FBG rookie ratings would have them as 1.4 and 1.10 rookie picks. For me, 1.04 is way more than Benjamin is worth (I have him ranked early 2nd), but going with that value the cited inaugural draft would value him at pick 6.02. For Ebron (1.10) he'd be valued at pick 8.09. Since t[/SIZE][SIZE=medium]he FBG dynasty rankings (overall) for Gio is 1.12 and Martin is 2.07, if you remove all of the names, the basic offer is 1.12 for 2.07/6.02/8.09 [and a 2015 2nd which, under this valuation methodology, is basically worthless from a 2014 draft value perspective]. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Is 1.12 for 2.07/6.02/8.09 unfair? Logic says no; picks 6.02 and 8.09 seems like ok counterbalance to move from 2.07 to 1.12. Yet I have to admit, I understand the outrage as I too vastly overvalue my own rookies. [/SIZE]
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's Carson Palmer. Carson Palmer. Even in your scenario where the guy with Murray has the other 16 best RBs in fantasy football and desperately needs a QB, he can do a lot better than Carson Palmer.
And Dwayne Allen is a top 15 TE? Big deal. Unless it's a 1.5ppr for TE league that starts 3 TEs that doesn't hold much value, and certainly not enough to in any way be a key piece in a trade for a guy with 1st round startup value. No offense, but people that are willing to do what you're doing here and think that adding up a bunch of mid-level junk somehow makes it worth an actual valuable dynasty asset is the reason that people like him keep offering these horrible trades in the hopes that someone will bite.
I mean, that second trade is probably a 1st, 6th, and 8th rounder in dynasty startups for a 12th, 15th, and 18th rounder. It's absurd. And while I agree that "value" doesn't score points, even in some perfect scenario where he hates Murray/Bridgewater and just wants to win now he can convert that value into a LOT more points than guys like Palmer, Kearse, and Allen.
It's a horrible offer that absolutely belongs in here.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
How recently was this offered? The consensus opinion on Martin has swung drastically in the last few weeks, so I think this offer looks pretty different 3 weeks ago when everyone was extremely down on the Hamster.
dagwood
Footballguy
Agree
Only way you think this is close is if you are one of those guys like guys from the zip code they are from......or for some unknown reason really really like Harvin......Dez is a difference maker
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
A 2015 early 1st may end up just a tick below Dez on its own if it ends up being Gurley. That plus Fitz and Harvin is a pretty fair offer. Even if the guy doesn't like it, which I can understand (I probably would hold Dez as well) it's far from bad enough to be in here.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
It was offered after Sims was out for the year, but a couple days before the Mankins trade.
Niles Standish
Footballguy
Well by your rankings it's a bad trade, that's why you didn't accept.
I think it's not a terrible offer.
I think a few years from now you might have a different opinion on the trade. But I could be wrong. It's all just projection.
Warpig
Footballguy
I'm a Gio owner and if I were offered Martin for him straight up I'd seriously consider it. Gio is gonna share a lot of carries with Hill...may be a fairly equal timeshare. I don't think Martin has to worry about that as much...maybe if Sims were healthy, but he's not. So, in my reasoning, I'd much rather have Martin, Benjamin, Ebron (even though I'm not a fan of Ebron), and the 2nd by far. Don't even think I would have hesitated.
r0llin_game
Footballguy
In a few years, Calvin will be 31-32, JT won't have Peyton, and who knows where Cecil Shorts ends up. That's a pretty awful theory there, heh.
Niles Standish
Footballguy
Graham and Calvin are 1 year apart. I'd point out that WRs have longer shelf lives than TEs except I'm a realist Graham is basically a WR too. But acting like a 1 year difference matters is silly. Do you think a lot of Short's value was derived from Chad Henne last year? Who knows with Peyton but I wouldn't be shocked if he's still playing in 3 or 4 years.r0llin_game said:
By your rankings it's a bad trade. I'm not sure that would be the consensus.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
That's certainly your prerogative, though completely ignoring an owner only cuts an already small trading pool down even smaller still.
DropKick
Footballguy
It wouldn't be the consensus.
The party involved may not like the offer; that's his prerogative. But the offer doesn't belong in the list of "worst trade offers ever".
whiskey7
Footballguy
Yes, it does. But anyone who would offer me that trade obviously is a fool (or takes me for one) and I have no time for either case.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
One guy offered me his A.J. Green for my Nick Foles, Michael Floyd, Jordan Reed, the 1.03, and three 2015 first round draft picks (two likely high) after I'd told him a half-dozen times over three years that I don't think A.J. Green is worth four first round draft picks alone.
I've also traded more with him than any other owner in that league over the years. He gives crap offers, but he's extremely active, and just out of the sheer volume of offers we've sent back and forth we've managed to find a surprising number that worked for both sides.
r0llin_game
Footballguy
How about his first offer that seems to have been ignored? The second offer was easily better, obviously, but the first one, yikes.
r0llin_game
Footballguy
Please please please tell me that his name starts with a T and has two words in his team name, along an H in the second name.
incogneato
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
You wouldn't know him. He's Canadian.Please please please tell me that his name starts with a T and has two words in his team name, along an H in the second name.
In fact, based on the way he always feels compelled to explain everything to me, I'd say there's a great chance that he's never bothered to google me, he's never heard of footballguys, and he has no idea whatsoever that I write about fantasy football. I don't really hide it, but I'm not exactly advertising to my leaguemates that all of my thoughts and rankings are available for the low low price of an Insider Pro subscription.
r0llin_game
Footballguy
Hmmm, he has a Canadian city in his team name!You wouldn't know him. He's Canadian.Please please please tell me that his name starts with a T and has two words in his team name, along an H in the second name.
In fact, based on the way he always feels compelled to explain everything to me, I'd say there's a great chance that he's never bothered to google me, he's never heard of footballguys, and he has no idea whatsoever that I write about fantasy football. I don't really hide it, but I'm not exactly advertising to my leaguemates that all of my thoughts and rankings are available for the low low price of an Insider Pro subscription.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I said I wanted to trade for a QB and I got these lovely starting points, all from different owners, in a pretty shallow 1QB 0.5PPR league
Flacco for Crabtree
EJ Manuel for Keenan Allen
McCown for Justin Hunter
At least its active?
Flacco for Crabtree
EJ Manuel for Keenan Allen
McCown for Justin Hunter
At least its active?
Similar threads
