Best Chance to Be NO.1 : Adrian Peterson
Biggest Breakthrough to elite status: Darren Mcfadden
Biggest Suprise: CJ Spiller
Rookie of the year: Mark Ingram
Tier 1
1.Adrian Peterson RB MIN AGE:26
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=PET260705
2.Chris Johnson RB TENN AGE:25
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=JOH127799
Johnson has an amazing patience/speed combo that really cant be matched by anyone in the league. people considered him a bust last year but im not really sure that is warranted. his YPC took a big drop(5.6 to 4.3) but it seemed that had to do with the fact that the titans (other than britt for a few weeks) didn't really have much around him. The titans were not very subtle about the fact that they were trying to get johnson the ball and it showed in how the defenses schemed against the titans.I do like a bounce back season for johnson this year though. I really like the pick of Jamie harper for depth behind him. Hopefully harper can emerge as a grinder type that can take a few inside carries a game. As much as getting carries taken away is a sensitive subject nowadays, i dont think there is any type of RBBC coming to Tennessee anytime soon. I like Johnson to be a little fresher and bust a few more big runs if everything goes as planned. Johnson is still young and is one of the few studs that can make his situation rather than vise versa. This would definitely be a hold for me in all formats.
3.Arian Foster RB HOU AGE:24
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=FOS107404
Tier 2
4.Jamaal Charles RB KC AGE:24
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=CHA561428
I dont think there was any guy last year that did more with the touches they got. His amazing vision seems to guide him quickly through holes in the line , even if the play wasn't meant to go in that direction. If their were any questions about Charles coming into last season, they were answered emphatically. I still think Johnson is a little more talented but with a little luck charles could definitely give johnson a run for his money at any point. I realize most people hate the way todd haley uses Charles, but I really dont see it as that much of a negative. sure, he only got 275 touches,but do you really want a guy with charles build getting 350 touches a year? I would say 300 touches is more than enough for charles to put up fantastic numbers and stay fresh the entire year. Moral of the story is, hes 24, has an up and coming situation and ran for 6.4 freaking YPC last year...Hes one of the few studs thats still being undervalued(rather than overvalued) and can be had in most leagues for a reasonable price. Hes a Buy or a hold for me in any format.
5. Ray Rice RB BAL AGE:24
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=RIC154451
Ray Rice and Arian Foster go hand in hand to me. They both seemingly (barring injury) have a solid hold on the feature back role for there respective teams. I do like Rice a bit better from a talent stand point and I think he is a better overall player (running between tackles, catching out of the backfield blocking, etc). but, I think fosters situations is better from a fantasy perspective. It just seemed like the texans have so effectively ran the ball the past few years, that no matter who is out there he is going to put up solid numbers. Foster being a solid talent makes that a match made in heaven. The Ravens have a better overall team but it seems the run blocking is lacking a bit compared to the texans. I do like Rice more in PPR and would probably swap him and Stewart if this were based purely on that scoring system. Some people may say this is a little low of a ranking for him but this seems to be right where he belongs IMO. Although Rice ended the year with solid stats, he was very inconsistent from week to week , especially with the amount of carries and touches he was getting. I wouldn't put this on all on Rice, I think it mostly has to do with the Ravens run blocking and the fact that Joe Flacco has yet to put fear in opposing defenses eyes. There is good news for this year , which is that the ravens play the NFC west, This might even out some of the tough match ups like the steelers( lowers his value on these weeks quite a bit). I think Rice is a solid RB1 and is in no danger of losing his job. Knowing that also realize Rice may be a little inconsistent for where you have to draft him in a start up dynasty . Dont avoid him , but dont overpay either
6.Darren McFadden RB OAK AGE:23
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=MCF084974
This guy is a MONSTER. The only guy with a better size/speed combo is Peterson. He can take it to the house at any point and can out run most corners. If he gets by the line hes just about unstoppable. The one concern for me is that the raiders fired tom cable at the end of last year and I know he was a big offensive line guru. They seemed to get a solid push for the most part but I have a feeling there might not be as many wide open holes as there were last year. The other concern is that he has proven to be a bit injury prone. The conclusion I came to with that info is that Mcfadden is setting up for a frank gore type of career path. He will miss a few games each year, but, while hes in there you know your going to get consistent, elite production, which is rare these days. Most people are still wary of buying into McFadden because of his first two years,so he can be had for more than a reasonable price in most leagues. Hes another buy/hold for the fact that he hasn't come close to his ceiling (production-wise).
7.Maurice Jones Drew RB JAC AGE:26
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=DRE527472
8. Lesean Mccoy RB PHI AGE:22
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=MCC620232
http://forums.footba...howtopic=550877
Tier 3
9.Rashard Mendenhall RB PITT AGE:23
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=MEN393702
10.Steven Jackson RB STL AGE:27
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=JAC560875
First things first, Steven jackson is an elite player and the team leader of the St Louis Rams. He is the only guy to run for over a thousand yards in each of the last six years and in those six years he has had over thirty eight catches in all of them(38 catches in 12 games in 2007 and 40 catches in 12 games in 2008). The guy flat out produces no matter the situation and sometimes when he was the only talent on the offense. He has been through the rough times with the Rams and it seems Billy Devaney has finally gotten a solid offense around him. With emerging stud QB Sam Bradford and a much improved offensive line, I see potentially SJax's best season this year, even though he may be declining a bit in talent. He has a lot of miles on his legs, but I think with Spags at the helm and Bradford slinging passes there you can expect a few more solid Rb1 seasons from Jackson. Also, dont be surprised if he gets over 10 TDs this year, I have a feeling hes due. He's a very good goal line runner and hes had an unbelievable TD drought over the past few years. Nice, reliable guy to have on your roster if your competing for a championship this year in all formats.
11.Matt Forte RB CHI AGE:25
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=FOR645404
12.Frank Gore RB SF AGE:27
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=GOR411171
Tier 4
13.Deangelo Williams RB F/A AGE:28
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=WIL221323
14.Ryan Mathews RB SD AGE:23
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=MAT190010
15.Michael Turner RB ATL AGE:29
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=TUR608668
16.Ahmad Bradshaw RB NYG:25
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=BRA254359
Tier 5
17.Felix Jones RB DAL AGE:24
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=JON313929
18.Knowshon Moreno RB DEN AGE:23
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=MOR120768
19.Peyton Hillis RB CLE AGE:25
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=HIL734134
Tier 6
20.C.J. Spiller RB BUFF AGE:23
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=SPI347627
http://forums.footba...howtopic=592915
I think spiller is an elite talent. Elite talents do not come along every year and im very hesitant to take an elite talent( that hasn't gotten a real shot yet) out of my top ten. His situation does look dim right now, but, I have faith that Spillers talent will overcome his situation eventually. It may not even be this year. But thats why these are dynasty rankings. In redraft he would probably be in the 20s somewhere because I think hes a big risk/reward guy. I think his ceiling is so sky high still that im willing to look past last year. Tough to keep him that high but tougher for me to drop him a significant amount on a 74 carry season against one of the toughest schedules in the league. My opinion is that this is a similar situation to Darren McFadden early on. People tossed him to the graveyard after one or two years because his numbers were horrible, completely ignoring that the guy was an elite prospect and a top five pick in the draft. Its not like the Bills are going give up on a top ten pick after one year. I have faith when he gets his opportunity he will flourish.
21.Jonathan Stewart RB CAR AGE:24
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=STE770966
22.Jahvid Best RB DET AGE:22
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=BES682260
23.LaGarrette Blount RB TB AGE:24
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=BLO626278
24.Shonn Greene RB NYJ AGE:25
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=GRE510029
25.Mark Ingram RB NO AGE:21
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=ING656964
Tier 7
26.James Starks RB GB AGE:
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=STA583786
27.Chris Wells RB ARZ AGE:22
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=WEL350689
I will admit, I have liked Beanie's talent ever since college(potentially a little biased) and im not quite sure what about him and his style has kept him from being effective thus far. His career is looking dim right now for Arizona, but, I still hold out complete faith that if this guy 'gets it' he has top 10 dynasty Rb value. I first became enamored with him in his sophomore year at OSU.
http://espn.go.com/n...ameId=280070194
The dude went off on a very talented LSU defense as a true sophomore. I'm also a huge Big Ten guy(being a wisconsin fan) and the guy just ran people over when he was in there. I was happy to see him leave, But I was also very excited to see what he could do in the Pros. I realize a lot of people consider him soft and injury prone, but, I love his talent and think he is still young enough and has enough miles left on his legs to have a strong career. This has reminded of a Thomas Jones type of situation to me since the middle of last year. Just looks like this situation isn't going to work out for Wells. I've been wrong before and I'm sure I will be again, but I think Wells is going to have to find a new team and a fresh start before he emerges. Not saying its out of the question that he lays the hammer down this year, but seems unlikely from what has happend so far. The guy can be had right now (Darren Mcfadden style) for a more than reasonable price and if you are willing to wait a year or two (which most of us are not) hes a great guy to have as your RB3 or RB4.
28.Marshawn Lynch RB SEA AGE:25
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=LYN442976
29.Cedric Benson RB CIN AGE:28
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=BEN508718
Tier 8
30.Fred Jackson RB BUF AGE:30
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=JAC173789
31.Joseph Addai IND AGE:28
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=ADD152616
I think that Addai has a solid shot to have some redraft value this upcoming season and would definitely be moving up my board depending on how training camp works out. Addai is a very reliable blocker and has solid hands, which is always something teams look for in a running back. He also has the advantage of being in Peyton Manning's offense. I dont think he turned out to be as effective of a runner between the tackles as the colts envisioned selecting him in the first round, But, if he can emerge out of training camp and manage to fight off Donald Brown and Delone Carter i see him putting up solid stats. Being a RB in that offense almost promises a top 20 season for Addai if he stays healthy and I think he is being slightly undervalued right now because hes not flashy. If your looking for a guy thats Inexpensive and has the potential to be a solid RB2 the upcoming year, Addai would be a guy to take a look at.
32.Roy Helu RB WAS AGE:22
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=HEL697773
33.Ryan Torain RB WAS AGE:24
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=TOR105154
34.Donald Brown RB IND AGE:24
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=BRO398445
Tier 9
35.Montario Hardesty RB CLE AGE:24
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=HAR051743
36.Mikel Leshoure RB DET AGE:21
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=LES202930
37.Ryan Williams RB ARZ AGE:21
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=WIL000004
38.Alex Green RB GB AGE:21
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=GRE037487
39.Daniel Thomas RB MIA AGE:23
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=THO092066
Tier 10
40.Reggie Bush RB NO AGE:26
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=BUS294963
41.Shane Vereen RB NE AGE:22
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=VER287449
42. Benjarvus Green-Ellis RB NEP AGE:26
http://www.nfl.com/player/benjarvusgreen-ellis/929/profile
43.Michael Bush RB OAK AGE:26
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=BUS277873
44.Ronnie Brown RB MIA AGE:29
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=BRO662745
Top Handcuffs
Top Handcuff: Tashard Choice
Tier 1
1.Tashard Choice RB DAL AGE:26
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=CHO431469
Felix Jones
2.Ben Tate RB HOU AGE:22
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=TAT137889
Arian Foster
3.Toby Gerhart RB MIN AGE:24
http://www.nfl.com/player/tobygerhart/497176/profile
Adrian Peterson
Tier 2
4.Allen Bradford RB TB AGE:22
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=BRA094086
The guy to get right now as a sneaky buy low. I realize Blount emerged last year,but, considering he was an undrafted pick up , I'm not sure they have a large amount of loyalty to keep him as a workhorse type of guy. Dont get me wrong either, I dont think Blount is Chopped liver. I fully expect him to take some of the load within the next few years.
Just from seeing what Bradford could do in college, It seems like to me he could potentially be an all purpose back at the next level. AT 5'11" 240 pounds, he seems to run faster than what would seem usual for the type of frame he has. Clocking a 4.59 40 is pretty solid for his playing style and it also seems like he may play a bit faster than that time tells. He was not asked to catch the ball at USC(15,00 other backs in the backfield), but , nothing I've seen from him tells me it isn't possible he could develop into a solid dump off guy. I'm not saying That hes going to emerge this year into a top 20 back, I just think Bradford has a shot to develop into a very solid NFL player and with given a good shot with the Bucs and that emerging offense, It could be a very solid combination for years to come. IMO a nice guy to monitor during training camp and have at the end of your bench just in case things fall his way. Who knows He could be one Blount injury and good preseason away from being the starting guy for TB this year.
5.Kendall Hunter RB SF AGE:22
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=HUN719158
Frank Gore
6.Delone Carter RB IND AGE:23
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=CAR642622
Donald Brown/Joseph Addai
7.Bilal Powell RB NYJ AGE:22
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=POW162772
Shonn Greene
8.Rashad Jennings RB JAC AGE:26
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=JEN587965
Maurice Jones Drew
9.Jacquizz Rodgers RB ATL AGE:21
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=ROD369979
Michael Turner
10.Demarco Murray RB DAL AGE:23
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=MUR580353
Felix Jones/ Tashard Choice
11.Mike Tolbert RB SD AGE:25
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=TOL160452
Ryan Mathews
12.Mike Goodson RB CAL AGE:23
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=GOO579925
Jonathan Stewart/ Deangelo Williams
13.Jalene Parmele RB BAL AGE:25
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=PAR593998
Ray Rice
Tier 3
14.Jamie Harper RB AGE:21
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=HAR263558
Chris Johnson
15.Stevan Ridley RB NE AGE:22
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=RID658759
Benjarvus Green-Eillis/Danny Woodhead/ Shane vareen
16.Taiwan Jones RB OAK AGE:22
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=JON731670
Darren Mcfadden
17.Johnny White RB BUF AGE:23
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=WHI311455
CJ spiller/Fred Jackson
18.Jordan Todman RB SD AGE:21
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=TOD628353
Mike Tolbert/ Ryan Mathews
Tier 4
19.Tim Hightower RB ARZ AGE:24
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=HIG784208
Like thomas, The drafting of a running back early in the draft seems to kill all but any value Hightower had left. He can definitely find a spot on a NFL roster even if the Cardinals let him go, But , the chances hes ever fantasy relevant again seems slim to none.
20.Pierre Thomas RB NO AGE:26
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=THO085535
The drafting of Mark Ingram seems to just about seal Pierre's fate in New Orleans. He is a solid talent and if he lands somewhere nice he could be solid. Unfortunately, guys like this seem to be dime a dozen and most teams are not willing to pay much for them. HIs career seems to be going down a Back up RBBC type of route and I tend to stay away from guys that have limited future upside and limited redraft upside.
21.Ryan Grant RB GB AGE:28
http://www.nfl.com/p...le?id=GRA497823
I've never really been a big grant fan and now that there are two other RBs competing for carries in GB , The future looks even more dim. I love the situation still and if injuries hit the corps he could still have value for redraft, but, he still has no long term value with the Packers and most likely will be nothing more than a desperate bye week filler this year.