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Great discussion!

Smallwood or Lewis here.  Likely come down to how my match-up is going by the late games.  If I need a home run (Lewis.) high floor (Smallwood.) Just wish Smallwood wasn't playing on MNF.

Am I looking at this correctly?

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For what it's worth, since I've been sharing them out on Twitter, I figured I'd post the Pats RB snap counts here, too. Snaps by quarter: Dion Lewis: 15, 13, 7, 0 LeGarrette Blount: 0, 8, 10, 11 James

The Patriots seemingly wrapped up the AFC East in 2009

Serious? Is he less "glass" than Forte? Bell? Charles? K Allen? You could say "dude is glass" about every NFL player, and eventually, there's a good chance you'd be able to come brag about it. T

1 hour ago, GECKO said:

Great discussion!

Smallwood or Lewis here.  Likely come down to how my match-up is going by the late games.  If I need a home run (Lewis.) high floor (Smallwood.) Just wish Smallwood wasn't playing on MNF.

Am I looking at this correctly?

This exactly what I am doing.  Need a win to clinch the division, and for my RB2 I have to decide between Dixon, Lewis and Smallwood.  Currently have Smallwood in the lineup, but will move to Lewis depending on news in the next 24 hours.  Thinking Lewis will have a higher floor just based on PPR.  

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7 minutes ago, bizkliz said:

Anybody taking the Dion plunge?

Possibly a ppr payoff with no gronk. 

I have a league where i need to win and make up a significant point differential as a tie breaker so im going with him simply for upside.  i figure he will either do nothing or break out. 

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FWIW I'm rolling with Ajayi & Sammy Watkins (RB2 & Flex) over Dion Lewis, Kenneth Dixon & Allen Robinson.

Ajayi because he is guaranteed too many touches to bench.  21 opportunities to get lucky and break one >>>> However many opportunities the others should get.

Watkins because, IMO, he has the biggest upside of the bunch.  Plus matchup, not many players to take away targets, in what should be a high scoring game.  The risk is obvious but that's the way I see it.

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So what do we make of his lack of usage the last few weeks? I know he's just getting his legs back, but I'm a little surprised James White is playing as much as he is. He's basically splitting touches with White and its killing his value. Anyone feel safe starting him in the playoffs at this point? I really thought he'd be a weapon in the offense, especially without Gronk, but looks like Mitchell is the only guy who's value is rising right now...

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59 minutes ago, CabinFever said:

So what do we make of his lack of usage the last few weeks? I know he's just getting his legs back, but I'm a little surprised James White is playing as much as he is. He's basically splitting touches with White and its killing his value. Anyone feel safe starting him in the playoffs at this point? I really thought he'd be a weapon in the offense, especially without Gronk, but looks like Mitchell is the only guy who's value is rising right now...

Did they even need to use him today?  I think they are fine working him in slowly until the playoffs, or unless they need more from him the last couple games for a bye or something. 

Next 3 weeks is Balt, @Denv, and NYJ.  Not a lot to look forward for FF production in our playoff weeks. 

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52 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Next 3 weeks is Balt, @Denv, and NYJ.  Not a lot to look forward for FF production in our playoff weeks. 

Honestly, it's very unlikely he cracks my line-up at this point (have Miller, Latavius, Ajayi and Howard at RB and can only start three). The only thing that's keeping me from dropping him for a second D is the fear that he turns back into '15 Dion on my playoff opponent's roster.

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7 hours ago, CabinFever said:

I'm a little surprised James White is playing as much as he is. He's basically splitting touches with White and its killing his value. 

Why surprised?  This is basically what BB said.  He said White was playing well & wasn't having his job taken away; someone else would have to take it.  Many posters didn't want to accept that & insisted Lewis was going to return to his usage numbers of his early-game hot streak from 2015, even though BB's words & actions said otherwise.

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Just now, Bayhawks said:

Why surprised?  This is basically what BB said.  He said White was playing well & wasn't having his job taken away; someone else would have to take it.  Many posters didn't want to accept that & insisted Lewis was going to return to his usage numbers of his early-game hot streak from 2015, even though BB's words & actions said otherwise.

I think part of the surprise is the discovery that BB might actually, for some reason, without warning, have uttered an honest truth.

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7 hours ago, zftcg said:

Remember before Lewis busted out last year, we were all talking about how you could never trust Belichick with RBs? Maybe we're back to "normal".

Yes and no. I think Blount will always be part of the game script given that the Pats are basically never blown out, and he will get the goal line looks. That said, Blount's usage  - as with that of Lewis and White - is going to vary depending on the based upon the opponent and game flow. It is the split between Lewis and White is what is going to be the hardest to figure out.

 

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I am not surprised by Blount's usage. Even though I own Lewis in a bunch of leagues, and have very few shares of Blount, I think he's had a great year and deserves his touches. But there is no way White can do the things we know Lewis can. He just doesn't have the juice and short area quickness Lewis does. 

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8 hours ago, menobrown said:

For his style of play I think that's actually a great schedule.

Agree, but unless something clearly breaks here (i.e. White inactive, Blount hurt) I will consider dropping him.

I have a first round bye and have been holding him and NEED something to emerge week 15. Right now I don't see it. If all things remain the same he would be a huge roll of the dice @DEN.

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3 hours ago, zamboni said:

Yes and no. I think Blount will always be part of the game script given that the Pats are basically never blown out, and he will get the goal line looks. That said, Blount's usage  - as with that of Lewis and White - is going to vary depending on the based upon the opponent and game flow. It is the split between Lewis and White is what is going to be the hardest to figure out.

 

True, you can mostly trust Blount at this point. But I think there's some combination of BB holding Lewis back to keep him fresh for the playoffs and White playing well enough to earn more touches. Even if they're both on the field together, only one of them can touch the ball on any given play.

I'm holding for now. But the moment of truth will come when there's a tantalizing WW pick-up and I have to decide whether to make a play. Absent a season-ender to anyone else on my roster, he's definitely the first off the boat.

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23 hours ago, Baloney Sandwich said:

I'm starting him over Lamar Miller this week

I'm getting sick of the MIller situation, mostly bad Quarterbacking!

Considering starting Lewis over Miller and also I have Blount in my flex and Gostkowski as my kicker, and even played NE D/ST this week. Other RB is Ware. Got the win already with Hilton and Marshall playing tonight.

Too many Patriots? Lol

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I'm thinking about playing Lewis over Crowell and Booker this week. All his touches/yards came in the first half last week, then they got far ahead and shelved him. Tough matchup this week against the run and it could be a tight game overall so maybe this is the week the Pats go to Lewis more 

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I think he will be heavily relied apon in the passing game and may start him as well. Bloom seems to think this is the week he's unleashed and it makes sense since Blount will find tough sledding against that Balt front 7. 

 

I'd be starting Rawls or Ingram over him. Ingram has an okay matchup, but is beat up and will lose touches to Hightower 

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1 hour ago, TartanLion said:

I'm thinking about playing Lewis over Crowell and Booker this week. All his touches/yards came in the first half last week, then they got far ahead and shelved him. Tough matchup this week against the run and it could be a tight game overall so maybe this is the week the Pats go to Lewis more 

In a PPR league, starting him over those two guys makes perfect sense 

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59 minutes ago, FGITLOTR said:

In a PPR league, starting him over those two guys makes perfect sense 

 

I'm non ppr. Sigmund and Evan Silva on On The Couch this week spoken about Lewis, and there's been a few other mutterings elsewhere as well.

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With the caveat that every season, every roster, player injuries, and individual game plans are always different, here's how the Pats have used their RBs against the Ravens over the past 10 years:

2014 Playoffs (W 35-31)
Bolden 3-7-0 | 1-11-0
Blount 3-1-0 | 0-0-0
Vereen 1-6-0 | 4-39-0

2013 (W 41-7)
Blount 16-72-2 | 0-0-0
Ridley 15-54-0 | 0-0-0
Vereen 2-6-0 | 1-4-1
Bolden 1-6-0 | 2-16-0

2012 Playoffs (L 28-13)
Ridley 18-70-0 | 0-0-0
Vereen 4-16-0 | 2-22-0
Woodhead 3-11-0 | 1-12-0

2012 (L 31-30)
Woodhead 15-34-1 | 1-9-0
Ridley 13-37-0 | 0-0-0
Bolden 2-4-1 | 0-0-0

2011 Playoffs (W 23-20)
Green-Ellis 15-68-1 | 0-0-0
Woodhead 6-18-0 | 1-7-0

2010 (W 23-20)
Woodhead 11-63-0 | 5-52-0
Green-Ellis 10-20-1 | 0-0-0
Morris 1-3-0 | 0-0-0

2009 Playoffs (L 33-14)
Faulk 14-52-0 | 6-37-0
Morris 1-9-0 | 3-15-0
Maroney 1-2-0 | 0-0-0
Taylor 2-1-0 | 0-0-0

2009 (W 27-21)
Taylor 7-25-0 | 1-13-0
Faulk 5-22-0 | 1-6-0
Morris 6-21-1 | 5-35-0
Maroney 7-6-0 | 1-17-0

2007 (W 27-24)
Maroney 13-44-0 | 2-79-0
Faulk 7-33-0 | 2-18-0
Evans 2-(-1)-1 | 0-0-0

The "running" RB has mostly been TD dependent for fantasy purposes and the "receiving" RB has mostly had limited involvement in these games. Things could be dramatically different this week, but I would be a little surprised if Lewis had a standout game, especially splitting time with White.

Edited by Anarchy99
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38 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

The "running" RB has mostly been TD dependent for fantasy purposes and the "receiving" RB has mostly had limited involvement in these games. Things could be dramatically different this week, but I would be a little surprised if Lewis had a standout game, especially splitting time with White.

Can't imagine NE is going to run Blount into this brick wall. 

Here's what "receiving RBs" have done vs BALT this year in terms of receptions

J. Ajayi -- 6-26 (and Ajayi isn't necessarily a receiving back)

J. Hill -- 6-61

E. Elliott -- 4-30

Crowell/D. Johnson -- 6-55

L. Bell -- 6-38

M. Forte -- 4-54-1

R. Jennings -- 4-20

C. Thompson -- 4-33

Stopping there.

Not a slam dunk here, but also not too bad.

Was also looking at D. Lewis game logs from last year. Outside of his first game where he had 15 rushing attempts, Lewis touched the ball anywhere from 7-14 times. He's not far off from this touch total. If he gets a couple more rushes and maybe 1-2 more receptions he's right there. The big difference of course would be the TD production.

Minus Gronk, with a banged up Bennett, Blount running into a wall, and NE needing to find their post Gronk groove against a team they want no part of in the playoffs, I've got to think McDaniel's amps up D. Lewis a bit this week. 

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32 minutes ago, Jimbo Slice said:

I got one spot for Blount or Lewis. Leaning Lewis 

This week or ROS?

ROS it's Blount without question.  This week, I guess I could see going with Dion but I would still lean Blount.

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This is the week, fellas. I won't be starting him as have better options, but this is the week. The tough defenses coming up will be good for Dion usage and he's just about in football shape now. Dion about to be unleashed ... getting him ready for playoffs. :yes:

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3 hours ago, mnmplayer said:

This is the week, fellas. I won't be starting him as have better options, but this is the week. The tough defenses coming up will be good for Dion usage and he's just about in football shape now. Dion about to be unleashed ... getting him ready for playoffs. :yes:

To bust out, or not? Bloom seems to think 6-8 carries and 5-7 receptions with a .6 chance for a TD. Not too many total yards and sounds like Lewis would be TD dependent? Now if he scores twice and rushes for 50 yards, catches 6 balls for another 50 yards he would be great! I just can't pull the trigger on Lewis. This could be a 20-17 ball game as well.

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