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*** Official Jaguars Thread - Team Putting #DTWD to The Test *** (3 Viewers)

Prediction Machine: 1995 expansion Jaguars would beat 2013 Jaguars

By John Breech | CBSSports.com

October 1, 2013 8:20 pm ET

Through four weeks of the NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars are winless. Not only are the Jaguars winless, but they've been outscored 129-31 through four games. The 2013 Jaguars are so bad, they couldn't even beat the 1995 expansion Jaguars, at least according PredictionMachine.com.

Before you scoff and say, 'The Prediction Machine doesn't know anything, it's just a dumb machine,' keep this in mind: the Prediction Machine is 44-19 picking NFL games this season. What I'm saying, is that the Prediction Machine knows all.

Anyway, back to the Jaguars. According to the Prediction Machine, the 1995 expansion Jaguars would beat the 2013 Jaguars 64.1 percent of the time with an average final score of 19-14.

In 1995, the expansion Jaguars also started 0-4, but that team rebounded to go 4-12. That is, if you call going 4-8 over your final 12 games rebounding.

The 1995 Jaguars and the 2013 Jaguars have a few things in common. The 1995 team, led by quarterback Mark Brunell, averaged 174.4 passing yards per game. The 2013 team is averaging exactly 175 pass yards per game. Actually, that's all the two teams have in common.

Besides Brunell, the 1995 Jags also had players like offensive lineman Tony Boselli, kick returner Desmond Howard and wide receiver Jimmy Smith.

Of course, if the 2013 Jaguars can't beat the 1995 Jaguars, you can't possibly expect them to beat the 2013 Broncos. Las Vegas isn't expecting that, come Week 6, the Jags might be the biggest underdogs in NFL history.
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Seriously, the interior of the line is the worst in football and now we have the entire right side to worry about now (assuming Joeckel slides over).

 
‏

@AdamSchefter

If Jacksonville is going to trade players in last year of their deal for picks, might as well get what it can for RB Maurice Jones-Drew
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‏

@GeneFrenette

Once Monroe is gone, that means the #Jaguars will have only one player left from drafts 2007-09. Uche Nwaneri
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Look, I'm good with taking our lumps now and garnering draft picks for the rebuild, but that is not enough compensation for a quality LT.

 
Mr. Brownstone said:
Look, I'm good with taking our lumps now and garnering draft picks for the rebuild, but that is not enough compensation for a quality LT.
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You have to look at the whole scenario though- his contract is going to be up and he's going to want a huge deal. They could have played with the franchise tag, but let's be honest- they had a decent chance to go winless with him this year, so unless they could get a long term deal done, the tag wasn't really a good option.

Not a Jags fan, but I have to assume they aren't completely clueless- they must have shopped him around, and found that this was his current market value, no?

 
humpback said:
Mr. Brownstone said:
Look, I'm good with taking our lumps now and garnering draft picks for the rebuild, but that is not enough compensation for a quality LT.
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You have to look at the whole scenario though- his contract is going to be up and he's going to want a huge deal. They could have played with the franchise tag, but let's be honest- they had a decent chance to go winless with him this year, so unless they could get a long term deal done, the tag wasn't really a good option.Not a Jags fan, but I have to assume they aren't completely clueless- they must have shopped him around, and found that this was his current market value, no?
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I hear you and I'm hoping they shopped him first. I do like the fact that they're finally committing to the future. It's been a long time coming. There's only a handful of players worth keeping around.
 
[SIZE=11pt]A little disappointed they couldn’t get a third for him but he’s a rental. I guess the way to look at the trade is what are the possible other ways this could be handled:[/SIZE]

  • [SIZE=11pt]Re-sign Monroe and keep Joeckel on the right. Problems with this approach: No assurances that Monroe wants to be here and Joeckel had made a few mistakes moving to the right side.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=11pt]Hold on to him, franchise and trade him. Problems: No assurances that other teams would want him knowing he’s going to want HUGE money after being franchised.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=11pt]Let him play out his contract and get a comp pick. Problems: He might be worth a fourth in comp pick but it would be affected by any UFA that the Jags sign. Not sure but they might not get the pick until ’15.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11pt]I think some valid criticism might be that they could have gotten more for Monroe on draft day, either right before or right after the pick.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]Let the firesale continue![/SIZE]

 
JaxBill said:
[SIZE=11pt]A little disappointed they couldn’t get a third for him but he’s a rental. I guess the way to look at the trade is what are the possible other ways this could be handled:[/SIZE]

  • [SIZE=11pt]Re-sign Monroe and keep Joeckel on the right. Problems with this approach: No assurances that Monroe wants to be here and Joeckel had made a few mistakes moving to the right side.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=11pt]Hold on to him, franchise and trade him. Problems: No assurances that other teams would want him knowing he’s going to want HUGE money after being franchised.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=11pt]Let him play out his contract and get a comp pick. Problems: He might be worth a fourth in comp pick but it would be affected by any UFA that the Jags sign. Not sure but they might not get the pick until ’15.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11pt]I think some valid criticism might be that they could have gotten more for Monroe on draft day, either right before or right after the pick.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]Let the firesale continue![/SIZE]
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That is the thing, trading him after week 4 assures you will get minimum value. There were several teams with with serious need at LT in the draft, Monroe could have returned better value or they could have shopped the #2 pick. It is hard to imagine a scenario where they got less in return for of the better LT in the game.

 
[SIZE=11pt]Good news – Jags take on the 30th ranked offense this week.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]Bad News - Rams still average about 25% more yards per game than the Jags’ 32nd ranked offense (300 – 228).[/SIZE]

 
Wadsworth said:
JaxBill said:
[SIZE=11pt]A little disappointed they couldn’t get a third for him but he’s a rental. I guess the way to look at the trade is what are the possible other ways this could be handled:[/SIZE]

  • [SIZE=11pt]Re-sign Monroe and keep Joeckel on the right. Problems with this approach: No assurances that Monroe wants to be here and Joeckel had made a few mistakes moving to the right side.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=11pt]Hold on to him, franchise and trade him. Problems: No assurances that other teams would want him knowing he’s going to want HUGE money after being franchised.[/SIZE]
  • [SIZE=11pt]Let him play out his contract and get a comp pick. Problems: He might be worth a fourth in comp pick but it would be affected by any UFA that the Jags sign. Not sure but they might not get the pick until ’15.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11pt]I think some valid criticism might be that they could have gotten more for Monroe on draft day, either right before or right after the pick.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=11pt]Let the firesale continue![/SIZE]
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That is the thing, trading him after week 4 assures you will get minimum value. There were several teams with with serious need at LT in the draft, Monroe could have returned better value or they could have shopped the #2 pick. It is hard to imagine a scenario where they got less in return for of the better LT in the game.
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I don't think they were giving up on this season completely before it even began.

 
Mr. Brownstone said:
humpback said:
Mr. Brownstone said:
Look, I'm good with taking our lumps now and garnering draft picks for the rebuild, but that is not enough compensation for a quality LT.
Click to expand...
You have to look at the whole scenario though- his contract is going to be up and he's going to want a huge deal. They could have played with the franchise tag, but let's be honest- they had a decent chance to go winless with him this year, so unless they could get a long term deal done, the tag wasn't really a good option.Not a Jags fan, but I have to assume they aren't completely clueless- they must have shopped him around, and found that this was his current market value, no?
Click to expand...
I hear you and I'm hoping they shopped him first. I do like the fact that they're finally committing to the future. It's been a long time coming. There's only a handful of players worth keeping around.
Click to expand...
Don't get me wrong, my first reaction was pretty surprised, but there's so much that goes on behind the scenes that no one really knows about. Heck, we don't even know what they got for him- "multiple day 3 picks" could be complete garbage or actually half way decent.

 
The following players missed practice Wednesday: Wide receiver

Mike Brown (back), Lewis (calf), cornerback Dwayne Gratz (ankle), wide receiver Stephen Burton (concussion), safety Dwight Lowery (concussion), defensive end Jeremy Mincey (concussion program), wide receiver Cecil Shorts III (groin), center Brad Meester, defensive tackle Roy Miller, defensive end Jason Babin. . .

*Bradley said it’s unlikely Brown will be available, and that he’s not counting on Lewis to play. Lewis left Sunday’s loss to the Colts in the first quarter after missing the first three regular-season games and Brown hasn’t played since the opener. . . .*Shorts left practice early after his groin tightened up, but Bradley said his situation isn’t thought to be serious and that the move was precautionary. . . .

*Mincey is being tested for a concussion, Bradley said . . .

*Gratz will not play Sunday, Bradley said. . . .

*Bradley said Meester, Miller and Babin were veteran days off. . . .
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Mr. Brownstone said:
JaxBill said:
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert could be out for an "extended period of time," according to a report by Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. Rapoport tweeted that Gabbert heard his hamstring "pop", which is why he didn't finish the game.
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He's frail, in addition to being the worst regularly starting quarterback I've ever seen.
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dude was overdrafted, got put in a bad situation and was basically David Carr'd.

 
JaxBill said:
Mr. Brownstone said:
JaxBill said:
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert could be out for an "extended period of time," according to a report by Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. Rapoport tweeted that Gabbert heard his hamstring "pop", which is why he didn't finish the game.
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Click to expand...
He's frail, in addition to being the worst regularly starting quarterback I've ever seen.
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dude was overdrafted, got put in a bad situation and was basically David Carr'd.
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Good comparison. I actually feel bad for the kid.
 
[SIZE=11pt]Gus Bradley says Gabbert has Grade 2 strain. Definitely out for Denver. Status is week-to-week.[/SIZE]

 
Hard to believe Gabbert, Ponder and Locker (although he was coming on a bit) were all top 15 picks in the same draft just a few yrs ago.

 
Jags are Top 5 in something: Agents trist them

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/The-NFLs-5-most-trusted-teams.html

Jacksonville Jaguars – Despite their current struggles, agents know where they and their clients stand with this team. The owner is going to be patient during the rebuilding process and the decision makers are not panicking and are looking towards building for the long term. The brass is always responsive and quick to give you honest feedback on your clients.
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We'll see if they still feel that way at the trade deadline

 
At this point, I think they should trade MJD. Get whatever they can for him. After losing your two best tackles, there is no hope for him here. Stockpile the picks as ammo to maneuver in the draft. His salary isn't bad considering he can be a top 10 RB if he has a decent offense to play for.

 
Warpig said:
At this point, I think they should trade MJD. Get whatever they can for him. After losing your two best tackles, there is no hope for him here. Stockpile the picks as ammo to maneuver in the draft. His salary isn't bad considering he can be a top 10 RB if he has a decent offense to play for.
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Who would want him and what would they even give? 5th or 6th rounder at best.

 
RBM said:
Warpig said:
At this point, I think they should trade MJD. Get whatever they can for him. After losing your two best tackles, there is no hope for him here. Stockpile the picks as ammo to maneuver in the draft. His salary isn't bad considering he can be a top 10 RB if he has a decent offense to play for.
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Who would want him and what would they even give? 5th or 6th rounder at best.
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Somebody might want him. From the little bit I saw of last game he still has some burst and runs hard. Maybe that was the first time he showed anything this season, but I think the eulogies for his career are a bit premature.

That said, a 28-year old on the last year of his contract isn't garnering a high pick. I think they can get better than a 5 though.

 
PlasmaDogPlasma said:
RBM said:
Warpig said:
At this point, I think they should trade MJD. Get whatever they can for him. After losing your two best tackles, there is no hope for him here. Stockpile the picks as ammo to maneuver in the draft. His salary isn't bad considering he can be a top 10 RB if he has a decent offense to play for.
Click to expand...
Who would want him and what would they even give? 5th or 6th rounder at best.
Click to expand...
Somebody might want him. From the little bit I saw of last game he still has some burst and runs hard. Maybe that was the first time he showed anything this season, but I think the eulogies for his career are a bit premature.

That said, a 28-year old on the last year of his contract isn't garnering a high pick. I think they can get better than a 5 though.
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FWIW, they said 68 of his 70 yards last week came after contact. Think about putting him behind a decent line with a decent passing game.

But given his age and being a rental, I think a 5th is probably decent return. A 4th would be surprising to me.

 
They gave up a top 10 left tackle for a 5th and 6th! If they could get a 5th or 6th for MJD I'd consider that a win. As I said earlier, stockpile the picks and jockey in the draft to move up. Or just keep your picks and try to find the next Wes Welker, Alfred Morris, Tom Brady, etc.

 
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