shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
It would be a short stint. They're talking about only holding him out of one start without DL.
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Add/Drop and Waiver Wire wonderment thread: Do you still own Domingo Santana? (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Doctor Detroit
- Start date
jamny
Footballguy
FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that Johnny Cueto will be placed on the disabled list with a lat strain.
It's not good news, but it could have been a lot worse. The diagnosis was likely made after Cueto visited with the Reds' medical staff Sunday. With Cueto now sidelined indefinitely, look for Tony Cingrani to be called up to take his spot in the starting rotation.
It's not good news, but it could have been a lot worse. The diagnosis was likely made after Cueto visited with the Reds' medical staff Sunday. With Cueto now sidelined indefinitely, look for Tony Cingrani to be called up to take his spot in the starting rotation.
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
That would be awesome. For now though I'm hoping he can just force his way into the lineup by continuing to hit .600 and drive in a couple runs every time he plays.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I wonder how much longer Craig and/or Jay would have to struggle for that to happen. It's unlikely that they will, but stranger things have happened.
That would be awesome. For now though I'm hoping he can just force his way into the lineup by continuing to hit .600 and drive in a couple runs every time he plays.
dparker713
Footballguy
His contract is for $157.8/10yr. It started in 2011 and lasts through 2020 with an option year. First year of the deal they certainly got their money's worth. Last year, not so much. Its a lot of money, but its not ARod or Pujols dollars. With inflation, the AAV at the end of the contract might only need 2 WAR to break even. Its actually not a bad deal IMO, though his health is of course a concern.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Gattis vs. Hafner in an OBP redraft?
cheese
Footballguy
I wouldn't recommend Cozart for the long haul, but if it's weekly he has 7 home games with 4 against the Marlins.
Speaking of that, Cingrani's first start should be home against Marlins.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
Oswaldo Arcia is coming up, for a few days at least. 36 bombs last year. .374/.540 in 6 seasons in minors, and on fire in AAA this year.
I think I'm adding him over Cingrani.
I think I'm adding him over Cingrani.
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pantagrapher
Footballguy
I had a spot and added him. If he impresses he could stay up. And he's got legit power.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I'm gonna cut Sal Perez for him. I actually like Sal quite a bit, but it's an OBP league which would make him a very ordinary catcher, even if he hits 17-20 HRs.
MAC_32
Footballguy
There usually isn't a middle ground with Masterson. Really good, or really bad. The optimist says now that he's had a few years to adapt to being a starter and the pressure of being the ace after being jerked around in Boston that his really bad starts should be fewer and far between. The pessimist says he will regress to previous form. I lean towards the former, but I'd be lying if I said I am comfortable starting him vs. Boston this week. I'm going to, just don't feel great about it.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Gattis has a pretty good track record of at least being decent at drawing walks. Plus Hafner is gonna pull his labia any day now....
collective
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I don't see a problem with that, depending on the options. Late round fliers are meant to be churned over. Waiting is for established veterans and elite prospects.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Fangraphs has a good article up about how his struggles seem legit. The Razzball guys have said he has looked as bad as the data and stats show too.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
Is Cingrani going to do what Maurer did to his owners? Barely has 100 IP's above A ball and his BB rate in AA is scary. Assuming he is in for Cueto he does get the Fish to start things off and should come back with the Cubs though. Risky, potentially very rewarding, but I'm not going there.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
This is why I pretty much always elect to go with the hitting prospect over the pitching prospect.
I can throw a batter on the bench if he needs a little time to adjust and when I throw him in there for a day, the downside is 0-4.
A pitching prospect can drop a Maurer on you and then waste a roster spot for the next 5 days (or far more if they've made you too gunshy to roll them out the next time).
For pitching prospects, I'd rather the be the 2nd or 3rd guy to own them. Let them have their initial success around the league, let them get to and through that big adjustment period that will follow, then get them cheap.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Yep. I prefer my young pitchers in the form of Masterson, Buchholz, and Minor types. For every Jarrod Parker 2012 there are ten Jarrod Parker 2013's.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Yeah, I don't do pitching prospects anymore. Seems like there is always a Chacin on the waiver wire to scoop up instead. I miss out on the Kershaws but oh well.
oso diablo
Footballguy
Cingrani's career minor-league WHIP is 0.926 with a K/9 of 11.8, and a K/BB of 4.63.
Maurer's corresponding numbers: 1.237, 8.4, 3.05
I really don't see them as close to the same pitcher.
MAC_32
Footballguy
RnR
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
RnR
Footballguy
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
cheese
Footballguy
I think it's a pretty big difference that Cingrani has been in the majors before. Sure, it wasn't enough innings to judge anything on, but at least he won't have the first time jitters affecting him.
MAC_32
Footballguy
RnR
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
Debut jitters aren't my concern, lack of overall experience is. Is Cingrani an ace for the next decade plus? If so, history says he might be fine from the get go - might not. Most good pitchers with such little experience against quality hitting often struggle out of the gate. Or once they've had a few starts they don't know how to react once teams adjust to him. So the most likely scenarios are not pretty and quickly sent back down or favorable early results followed by a couple of blow up's after a few turns. If that happens, then what do you do? and all the good he did for his first few turns was offset by the blow up's.
Just not a game I like to dabble with. This early in the season anyway, try to reserve riskier plays until much later.
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Don Quixote
Footballguy
Are people really spending a lot on Cingrani? Sure, I picked him up, but I view him as a streamer-type. He's got a couple of favorable starts, and then he's probably back down to AAA. And he can't blow my ratios any worse than what Jarrod Parker was doing.
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RnR
Footballguy
So for those scoring at home:
A- Don't draft pitchingB- Trade all your pitching depth for hitting talent
C- Don't play Chad Billinglsey, play Brandon Maurer-- It is silly to roster old stand-by pitchers when you can stream away.
D- Play Chad Billingsley, don't play Tony Cingrani-- It is silly to take risks like this, stick with the old stand-by until later in the season.
E- Post rosters of your super awesome keeper league team.
F- Start Brandon Crawford and ride the hot streak
G- Profit...?
A- Don't draft pitchingB- Trade all your pitching depth for hitting talent
C- Don't play Chad Billinglsey, play Brandon Maurer-- It is silly to roster old stand-by pitchers when you can stream away.
D- Play Chad Billingsley, don't play Tony Cingrani-- It is silly to take risks like this, stick with the old stand-by until later in the season.
E- Post rosters of your super awesome keeper league team.
F- Start Brandon Crawford and ride the hot streak
G- Profit...?
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pollardsvision
Footballguy
He's just considering the chance of downside that comes with any young SP, as an adjustment period is coming at some point. Maurer may not be a good comp, as he might just not be a very good prospect.
I could see Scherzer providing a nice comp here.
Cingrani reminds me a lot of a young Max Scherzer murdering AAA back in '08. 79 Ks in 53 IP. Then he dazzled in a 4 IP debut (7Ks). He then had 3 inconsistent starts, got sent to the pen until September where he made 4 starts with success in short outings. All told, he had a solid rookie effort with some nice K's and a nice era (helped greatly by time in the pen). But he only made it to the 6th inning in 3 starts (2 quality starts), despite being called up in April.
I was so excited when I nabbed Scherzer before that call-up. He had a successful rookie campaign, but the other owners in the league have had 4-5 chances to own him since (I'm excited to have him again for the last 2 seasons).
We could go on.
For some out of this world elite prospects........
David Price had a 4.42 ERA in his first year as a starter (and he was an elite prospect that was well developed when drafted)
Kershaw, 4.26
Lincecum, 4.00
King Felix, 4.52
No idea how it'll got for Cingrani, but it's almost certain that it won't all be sunshine and roses and it'll be a couple years or so before before he's the kind of guy you toss out there with no worries.
I could see Scherzer providing a nice comp here.
Cingrani reminds me a lot of a young Max Scherzer murdering AAA back in '08. 79 Ks in 53 IP. Then he dazzled in a 4 IP debut (7Ks). He then had 3 inconsistent starts, got sent to the pen until September where he made 4 starts with success in short outings. All told, he had a solid rookie effort with some nice K's and a nice era (helped greatly by time in the pen). But he only made it to the 6th inning in 3 starts (2 quality starts), despite being called up in April.
I was so excited when I nabbed Scherzer before that call-up. He had a successful rookie campaign, but the other owners in the league have had 4-5 chances to own him since (I'm excited to have him again for the last 2 seasons).
We could go on.
For some out of this world elite prospects........
David Price had a 4.42 ERA in his first year as a starter (and he was an elite prospect that was well developed when drafted)
Kershaw, 4.26
Lincecum, 4.00
King Felix, 4.52
No idea how it'll got for Cingrani, but it's almost certain that it won't all be sunshine and roses and it'll be a couple years or so before before he's the kind of guy you toss out there with no worries.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
dparker713
Footballguy
Scherzer is not a good comp, He's a guy with great stuff. Cingrani is largely a deception guy, so Collmenter is a better comp, though Cingrani is better prospect than Collmenter was.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I hope you're near a couch....
On a serious note, I don't really know much about Cingrani. Just going off the late-April call-up throwing up silly K numbers in the minors, as a reason to look at Max (and that's the last time I've really paid much attention to any new SP call-up)
cheese
Footballguy
I agree he will probably have struggles at some point (especially in GABP), but I think you're overthinking this. The most likely result is he comes up, breezes through the Marlins and Cubs because he's good and they're not and then gets sent right back down and gets cut in fantasy leagues. 2 or 3 good starts by a good pitcher on a good team against crap teams. Not worth a ton, but if it's free it's still something.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Only problem with the above. If we're talking about your run of the mill off and on the waiver wire pitcher it's easy to give him the axe after dominating two lousy lineups. Fantasy owners have a hard time letting go of a prospect who starts off hot, understandably so. With the vet you have a good idea it will end, with a kid you do not. It's a situation I personally like to avoid, one of those cases in which whatever decision you do make will be the wrong one. The perfect scenario would be if Cincy takes the decision out of owners' hands by just sending him back down. Obviously no guarantees in that, unlike Straily and his cameo vs. Houston week 1.cheese said:
Michael Brown
Footballguy
I know he's probably rostered in most deeper leagues but in a couple of shallower leagues I picked up Straily this week for the inevitable promotion when Parker loses his rotation spot. Straily K'd 9 with no walks over 5.2 IP in his lone minor league start so far
oso diablo
Footballguy
stats aren't semantics, but ok.if your point was merely that rookie/young pitchers are risky, well, that's quite banal. I would hope we could analyze a bit deeper than that, however, and try to decipher the difference between a Maurer and a Cingrani. Cingrani's stat profile looks a lot more like that of Jose Fernandez, to take a recently relevant example.Disclosure: i own Cingrani in NL-only keeper league, but am letting him sit on the wire in a redraft mixed (though that's only because i don't have a good cut right now). I would definitely stream him at this point otherwise.MAC_32 said:
shadyridr
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
My point is less with rookie pitchers in general and more to do with rookie pitchers who have as little experience above A ball as Cingrani. This was one of my primary gripes with Maurer a couple of weeks ago too, that's why I brought him up. The other was his lack of production, but if you filter out his first two months of 2012 his numbers look much, much better. Not Cingrani's 2012 level, I don't think anyway, but close. I'm sure there are exceptions to the rule but how many pitchers with such a small IP total above A ball came up to the bigs and were at the very least productive contributors? how many BB'd their way back to the minors before the blink of an eye? is the risk worth the potential reward?
cheese
Footballguy
Even if everything you say is completely spot on, I think the answer to your very last question is yes. The risk is whatever damage can get done to him in 1 home start vs the Marlins. The potential reward is that he is great for a few starts and somehow sticks in the rotation and you can decide start to start if he will keep it up.
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
17 homers last year. 36 doubles though...maybe that's what you were looking at? That .374 number seems off too. (329/308 last year between AA/A+)pollardsvision said:
Anyhoo, I'm a big fan and he's looking good tonight. He's up because Wilkin Ramirez is on paternity leave for a couple of days. What may happen is that Arcia shows enough in a couple of days to force Hicks to the minors. Which would make Mastroianni a potential WW grab for steals. Then again, Arcia is only 21, so if he's up and not playing every day, it's a waste. Parmelee is playing ok and Willingham is in left -- so, something would have to give.
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