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QB Russell Wilson, SEA


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This is from RW and it seems sensible:

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Atlanta at Seattle (4:25 PM ET): Sunday morning thunderstorms are expected to morph into rain showers in the afternoon as kickoff between the Seahawks and Falcons arrives at CenturyLink Field. Rain should be constant during this game, with winds touching varying levels as the contest progresses, with gusts forecasted between 10 to 20 mph. Despite the fact that winds will not be constantly over 20 mph, the safe play is to eliminate the risk that comes with kicking in windy environments and move on from both Steven Hauschka and Matt Bryant for the week, as safer options can easily be found on local waiver wires. The 20+ mph gusts of wind may become a bit dangerous, but with the sustained winds expected to remain at lower speeds, the passing games in this matchup are likely safe.

 

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20 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

Any Seattle homers have the scoop on the weather this weekend? Keep hearing there are typhoons rolling in.

Would make for a rough day at the office for R. Wilson.

And make it a great day for the SEA D.

Listening to the weather Sat morning, sounds like it will be a typical Seattle fall/winter day with a persistent drizzle, some periods of more heavy rain, and not more than the normal Seattle wind; it's supposed to be high 50s. Currently, they are talking about the wind storm (70mph gusts) ending in Seattle around 10pm PT tonight. It would be worth rechecking hr by hr at weather.com after 10pm, because storms like this can do weird things.

 

The traction on the field turf is not that bad in wet weather, so don't expect defenders to be slipping all over the place. Wilson has the typical decline in QB production in foul weather, but if it's just a Seattle drizzle with slight winds, I would still start him.

Edited by xrayveggin
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1 hour ago, xrayveggin said:

T

Listening to the weather Sat morning, sounds like it will be a typical Seattle fall/winter day with a persistent drizzle, some periods of more heavy rain, and not more than the normal Seattle wind; it's supposed to be high 50s. Currently, they are talking about the wind storm (70mph gusts) ending in Seattle around 10pm PT tonight. It would be worth rechecking hr by hr at weather.com after 10pm, because storms like this can do weird things.

 

The traction on the field turf is not that bad in wet weather, so don't expect defenders to be slipping all over the place. Wilson has the typical decline in QB production in foul weather, but if it's just a Seattle drizzle with slight winds, I would still start him.

Starting SEA D as well so while I hope it doesn't impact Wilson I sure hope it impacts Ryan.

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Curious if everyone is shying away from R. Wilson @AZ? Not a great matchup.

After looking at Dodds and Tremblay's projections that have him ranked after the top12 I'm thinking of putting in bids for Cousins (@DET) and Mariota (INDY). Great matchups.

Bloom has Wilson at #4 which is at odds with every other expert out there. Curious what he's thinking.

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1 hour ago, kyoun1e said:

Curious if everyone is shying away from R. Wilson @AZ? Not a great matchup.

After looking at Dodds and Tremblay's projections that have him ranked after the top12 I'm thinking of putting in bids for Cousins (@DET) and Mariota (INDY). Great matchups.

Bloom has Wilson at #4 which is at odds with every other expert out there. Curious what he's thinking.

I think this is because some people project based on up-to-date averages and positional scoring and others do it more by gut.  Dodds and Tremblay are likely looking at a tough matchup by the stats.  Bloom probably knows Seattle tends to feast playing in Arizona.

I have my doubts it will be like the past several years, but here are the scores and Wilson's stat line when playing in ARI for Wilson's career:

Year   Score  PaYds TDs INTs RuYds RuTDs
2012   16-20  153   1   1    20    0
2013   34-22  235   3   0    29    0         
2014   35-6   339   2   0    88    1
2015   36-6   197   3   0    13    0

Obviously this is not a guarantee he'll do well this weekend but it certainly seems as though Pete Carroll has Arians' number.  Oddly enough they don't play them as well at home.

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9 minutes ago, biju said:

I think this is because some people project based on up-to-date averages and positional scoring and others do it more by gut.  Dodds and Tremblay are likely looking at a tough matchup by the stats.  Bloom probably knows Seattle tends to feast playing in Arizona.

I have my doubts it will be like the past several years, but here are the scores and Wilson's stat line when playing in ARI for Wilson's career:


Year   Score  PaYds TDs INTs RuYds RuTDs
2012   16-20  153   1   1    20    0
2013   34-22  235   3   0    29    0         
2014   35-6   339   2   0    88    1
2015   36-6   197   3   0    13    0

Obviously this is not a guarantee he'll do well this weekend but it certainly seems as though Pete Carroll has Arians' number.  Oddly enough they don't play them as well at home.

I don't think Wilson was limited in any of those games.

If Bloom nails this one, he's the man.

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^

Someone once told me that Dodds uses some kind of straight algorithm with no adjustments to post his initial rankings each week, then makes adjustments on Thursday. I don't know if this is true, so take it FWIW. 

There could be multiple reasons to do this, to wait in more concrete injury info, practice info, more accurate weather info, or just in the interest of meeting early week deadlines.

Anyway, it is conceivable that other rankers do something similar, so I rarely pay much attention to rankings before Thursday.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, chad in Indy said:

Anybody else ready to bail??

Half way through the season, and only ONE game over 15 pts.  Injuries aside, his line is garbage and I don't see that changing.

 

I traded for Stafford. I know he has Minnesota twice and his bye is coming but this allows me to cut bait on Wilson and just stream during that week 10 bye. Sad when I'd rather have Stafford versus the Vikings than Wilson but if Wilson can't do it versus New Orleans, what hope is there?

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He looks okay as an NFL quarterback except he can't run right now and his offensive line totally sucks.  Those big plays to hit deep are hard to get because there's always a leak in the offensive line and then Wilson can't scramble around long enough to create a big play. Losing the ability to hit the big play and losing his running ability has left me with a quarterback who has scored less points in my league than Brock Osweiler.  I also have Stafford  but I'm debating packaging him with one of my wide receivers to try to get an elite quarterback if such a deal exists.  I'm ready to make Wilson a permanent backup.

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For those thinking of bailing...  I just traded FOR Wilson in my 20+ year redraft league.  We get double points for non-traditional TDs (includes QB rushing TD) and all TDs are 6 points.  So a Russell Wilson rushing TD gets 12 points.

Anyway, I traded away Philip Rivers and Dez Bryant and received Russell Wilson and Brandon Marshall.  Seems like Russell should revert somewhere close to his mean.  Right now he's ranked in the high 20s per that league's scoring system.  I'm thinking he sneaks into top 12 by end of season.  

I know.  "Cool story".  But if you're trying to gauge value, that's what I gave up for him.

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7 hours ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

For those thinking of bailing...  I just traded FOR Wilson in my 20+ year redraft league.  We get double points for non-traditional TDs (includes QB rushing TD) and all TDs are 6 points.  So a Russell Wilson rushing TD gets 12 points.

Anyway, I traded away Philip Rivers and Dez Bryant and received Russell Wilson and Brandon Marshall.  Seems like Russell should revert somewhere close to his mean.  Right now he's ranked in the high 20s per that league's scoring system.  I'm thinking he sneaks into top 12 by end of season.  

I know.  "Cool story".  But if you're trying to gauge value, that's what I gave up for him.

I fully expect Wilson to explode back on the scene this Monday night against a very beatable Bill D. With the brace probably coming off this week and that ankle getting close to 100%, we should see him start to run more...the buy low window is going to close quickly

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4 hours ago, chad in Indy said:

Until they fix the O-line, it's gonna be rough.

 

Not sure I buy this. The offensive line has been a problem for the past several years, but they've improved through the end of each season. You can make an argument that this year is worst, but the team started 4-1-1 through 6 games. 

2015: Seattle started 2-4 and people were going nuts about the O-line.
2014: Seattle started 3-3 and people were going nuts about the O-line.

I will continue to trust in Tom Cable. I think he's earned the benefit of the doubt. 

Edited by Hooper31
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I think that Wilson is about to take off here in the next couple of weeks. Or at least I hope that he does. I don't see dropping him for somebody like McCown. According to the local sports radio stations, he's finally going to be playing without his ankles wrapped either this week or next, this week was the first week that he didn't have any of his injuries aggravated and it's the first time that he's going into a week basically completely healthy. Carroll has openly admitted the they're suffering because of the fact that Wilson hasn't been mobile, and seemed quite optimistic about his QB finally being "set loose" in the coming weeks.

Buy low.

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I have watched every game this year and the difference is his scrambling ability. Just like Roethlisberger, a lot of his value/scoring is created off his scrambling ability. If the brace is coming off that's good news for his owners. I'd buy low. If you look at his yards, its not really that bad, its mostly lack of TDs that is keeping his scoring low. Also his defense hurt him in the last game with that turnover TD which is never good for offensive scoring of the QB/WR. Couple that with the injury and its been a perfect storm of bad situation after bad situation in games where they don't need to air it out or can't.

He has a 5/2 TD/INT ratio which is good, but only 5 TDs in 7 games which is really low. He moved the offense really well in the final minutes of the last game and almost scored if Kearse could have kept both feet in. Would have salvaged the day. When you only get 30-35 attempts per game and you lost your 30-50 rushing yards which typically gives a nice floor you are vulnerable to these types of games.

All that is to say that I think without that turnover TD last week and if Kearse gets two feet down on that final TD play we would probably be asking if Russell Wilson is finally back to normal again. If he really is shedding the brace, I'd buy. I'm not overly concerned about BUF D either considering they have faced total crap this year at the QB position, aside from Brady (maybe you could throw Palmer in there too) who exposed them a bit last week.

Man I sound like a Russell Wilson Apologist, excuse after excuse. Don't give up too much for him, try to get him for a song. I bet most owners are going to be happy to get rid of him in a trade instead of just plain dropping him to justify getting even a hint of return value for him this year. Now is the time to pounce, before Monday night.

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4 minutes ago, mnmplayer said:

I have watched every game this year and the difference is his scrambling ability. Just like Roethlisberger, a lot of his value/scoring is created off his scrambling ability. If the brace is coming off that's good news for his owners. I'd buy low. If you look at his yards, its not really that bad, its mostly lack of TDs that is keeping his scoring low. Also his defense hurt him in the last game with that turnover TD which is never good for offensive scoring of the QB/WR. Couple that with the injury and its been a perfect storm of bad situation after bad situation in games where they don't need to air it out or can't.

He has a 5/2 TD/INT ratio which is good, but only 5 TDs in 7 games which is really low. He moved the offense really well in the final minutes of the last game and almost scored if Kearse could have kept both feet in. Would have salvaged the day. When you only get 30-35 attempts per game and you lost your 30-50 rushing yards which typically gives a nice floor you are vulnerable to these types of games.

All that is to say that I think without that turnover TD last week and if Kearse gets two feet down on that final TD play we would probably be asking if Russell Wilson is finally back to normal again. If he really is shedding the brace, I'd buy. I'm not overly concerned about BUF D either considering they have faced total crap this year at the QB position, aside from Brady (maybe you could throw Palmer in there too) who exposed them a bit last week.

Man I sound like a Russell Wilson Apologist, excuse after excuse. Don't give up too much for him, try to get him for a song. I bet most owners are going to be happy to get rid of him in a trade instead of just plain dropping him to justify getting even a hint of return value for him this year. Now is the time to pounce, before Monday night.

I'm a huge Wilson fan and I agree with the Buy Low approach but not being able to get a single TD pass against that awful NO pass D is pretty inexcusable, injuries or no injuries. That was just some bad football on his part. I don't blame Kearse for the last throw either. That was a bad throw and a bad read by Russell in my opinion. Not crazy about the play call either. I do think better things are ahead since he typically is a second half of the season type of player and with improved health and mobility you would think his production should improve. But it's really tough to see any positives here.

He's had some great matchups and other than a couple of games (49ers before he got hurt and the Jets game) the production just hasn't been there. There are some legitimate reasons for all that but fantasy football is a bottom line game and all we care about is production and Wilson's has been putrid for an elite player. I'm holding because I do trust in his talent but I'm holding primarily because I believe in what I've seen from him in the past not because of anything I've really seen from him this season. Honestly, I don't think he's playing well at all. I'm hoping that changes and I hope it changes Monday night. I think he's too damn good of a player to keep playing like this all season long but again that's based on my belief in him not really based on anything he's been showing on the field to this point in the season.

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3 hours ago, Hooper31 said:

 

Not sure I buy this. The offensive line has been a problem for the past several years, but they've improved through the end of each season. You can make an argument that this year is worst, but the team started 4-1-1 through 6 games. 

2015: Seattle started 2-4 and people were going nuts about the O-line.
2014: Seattle started 3-3 and people were going nuts about the O-line.

I will continue to trust in Tom Cable. I think he's earned the benefit of the doubt. 

Yes it's a reoccurring theme, but it has gotten worse every year. Trading Unger for Graham was a bad move and this year the line is even worse.  Lack of mobility aside, he has no time. This isn't a scramble after nobody is open.  He is scrambling IMMEDIATELY after the snap. He can't even run the read option bc he is taking hits from the back side of the play. 

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23 hours ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

For those thinking of bailing...  I just traded FOR Wilson in my 20+ year redraft league.  We get double points for non-traditional TDs (includes QB rushing TD) and all TDs are 6 points.  So a Russell Wilson rushing TD gets 12 points.

Anyway, I traded away Philip Rivers and Dez Bryant and received Russell Wilson and Brandon Marshall.  Seems like Russell should revert somewhere close to his mean.  Right now he's ranked in the high 20s per that league's scoring system.  I'm thinking he sneaks into top 12 by end of season.  

I know.  "Cool story".  But if you're trying to gauge value, that's what I gave up for him.

Redraft? Umm, you got hosed. By the way, he's not Cam Newton with rushing TDs.

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48 minutes ago, ratbast said:

Redraft? Umm, you got hosed. By the way, he's not Cam Newton with rushing TDs.

Idk.  This is a blanket statement without knowing the circumstances.  If you are sitting 6-2, 5-3, then I think it's a fair gamble.  With this record, you most likely are a lock to make the playoffs.  Rivers hasn't been great late in the season, so it's a good speculative bet for a playoff run.

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I think people underestimated how much his ability to run affected his fantasy value. Even beyond his rushing yards, one of Wilson's major strengths was scrambling and making big plays out of nothing. His ability to avoid pursuers while keeping his focus downfield combined with his deep ball accuracy and arm strength was always what impressed me about him.

That said, its obvious that with his injuries and oline problems, he no longer has that ability and won't be a top tier qb until one or more of those factors is fixed. He doesn't have a game like Brady or even Carr where he can be immobile and still produce at a high level. This isn't me saying he's Kaep or RG3 where without his legs he's a bad QB, just that he's certainly not a top 10 fantasy QB. 

Edited by Wise Old Owl
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36 minutes ago, Wise Old Owl said:

I think people underestimated how much his ability to run affected his fantasy value. Even beyond his rushing yards, one of Wilson's major strengths was scrambling and making big plays out of nothing. His ability to avoid pursuers while keeping his focus downfield combined with his deep ball accuracy and arm strength was always what impressed me about him.

That said, its obvious that with his injuries and oline problems, he no longer has that ability and won't be a top tier qb until one or more of those factors is fixed. He doesn't have a game like Brady or even Carr where he can be immobile and still produce at a high level. This isn't me saying he's Kaep or RG3 where without his legs he's a bad QB, just that he's certainly not a top 10 fantasy QB. 

He is an underrated pocket QB, but behind the current Seahawks OL, he definitely cannot be successful (top 10 level) while immobile.

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38 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

He is an underrated pocket QB, but behind the current Seahawks OL, he definitely cannot be successful (top 10 level) while immobile.

I really didn't want to turn this into another argument about if Wilson is a good pocket passer or not. He has 8 games of 300 passing yards in his 5 year career. Bortles has 10 in 3 years and Bortles is awful. My point is that if Wilson can't do it with his legs, as a fantasy QB, there is no evidence he can make up that production with his arm. 

Running Wilson great NFL QB and great Fantasy QB

No Running Wilson great NFL QB and unreliable Fantasy QB

Edited by Wise Old Owl
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A lot of things hold Russ back. The lack of mobility and porous OL are the obvious ones. But also Seattle having a strong defense and the heavy emphasis on the running game hold him back from big time production as well. Bortles has more 300+ yard passing games because he has to throw a lot. Last season and thus far this season, Bortles has averaged 39 passing attempts a game. Same span, Russ is at 31.5. At 8.1 yards per attempt, if he passed as much as Bortles, he'd be averaging an extra 60 passing yards a game. That is significant, especially if you play in leagues where you get a bonus for 300+ passing yards as another 60 per game would give him 6 this season rather than 1. 6 300+ yard games out of 7 is good for fantasy purposes. And presumably he'd have an extra 2 or 3 passing TDs. The lack of rushing on his part still holds him back but being Seattle's QB also does as well. Which is why I'm not really buying into the idea that he'll have a great 2nd half like last season. I don't see him ever being health enough to put up up viable running stats and with that OL being worse, a strong defense that keeps scoring down and a good run game that'll be bolstered by the return of Rawls eventually, i just don't see much hope on the positive regression.

Edited by theothervcruz
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21 hours ago, chad in Indy said:

Idk.  This is a blanket statement without knowing the circumstances.  If you are sitting 6-2, 5-3, then I think it's a fair gamble.  With this record, you most likely are a lock to make the playoffs.  Rivers hasn't been great late in the season, so it's a good speculative bet for a playoff run.

Dez is finally healthy, his upside is pretty high for rest of year. Marshal is a stud with a balky knee and a terrible QB.

Wilson is not putting up the stats. Its a number of factors why, but more than a few need to be fixed for him to start lighting it up. Wilson floor? Not startable, ceiling? right now its Rivers! Rivers, is at least solid if not better than that. Floor? Starting fantasy QB, ceiling stud numbers.

Regression to the mean isn't applicable here. Dez and Wilson, which do you think are going to make fantasy owners happy? Marshal could go either way, Rivers could regress some but he won't come close to what Wilson has made his owners endure.

I love Wilson and Marshal, but only one is a starter now. I like Rivers as a starter and I LOVE Dez.

I think if you are talking all bench players it still doesn't hold water. If there was a 3 player that upgraded a starter then sure but if you've had Wilson all year like I have you can see there is too much wrong to invest in a rebound: OLine, 2 WRs banged up, Knee, Ankle, Arm....and if you watched last year his big plays were big scrambles. Defenses had all year to look at that. 

Not to mention Wilson rushed for 6 TD in 2014 but only 1 TD in 2013 and 1 TD in 2015 and 0 thus far in 2016 so one of the reasons he traded for him is not really a strong suit. He runs a lot but not prone to rushing TDs, maybe that changes without Lynch but I doubt it.

No offense to the dude who pulled off the trade but it really doesn't matter what scoring system, run your team whatever way you want but sometimes getting cute on rebounds can kill your team. Its not a good speculation at all if you have watched Wilson this year.

 

Edited by ratbast
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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to QB Russell Wilson, SEA

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