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[DYNASTY] 2012 Top 24 Rookies (1 Viewer)

'wdcrob said:
'EBF said:
One of the most common sights in Wright's game clips is him running free deep. If he's slow, how does he always get so wide open? Sometimes he benefits by being matched up with a linebacker or safety, but even when he's facing cornerbacks he seems to run by them with ease. And I've yet to see anyone snatch him from behind.
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I wrote a long post on this the other day, but it got nuked before I published it.First, as a proportion of his total catches Wright obviously didn't get deep all that much. His Y/C and his TD% are both on the low side. He just had a ton of catches and a lot of highlights.

Second, a combine-verified 4.6 is still fast compared to a lot of the players in college. Not blazing fast, but fast enough that if they bite on your bait you can get behind them. However, 4.6 is not very fast compared to anyone he'll be facing in the pros.

Third, related to the one above -- if you've got a great sense of timing and vision and the ability to wrong-foot defenders you can get open deep in college. But that won't work in the pros. You need that PLUS. Wright has no plus.

Fourth, RG3 (and the other WRs at Baylor) made his job much easier. Neither Hasselbeck or Locker are pro equivalents.

Bottom line is that I think Wright was a very good college player and I think he'll be a solid #2 or a great #3 in the pros. But he's not a #1 guy. Being a great college receiver is necessary but not sufficient to being a great pro WR and Wright is missing some stuff.
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Have you done any research testing which is more predictive of NFL success - the number of long receptions or the proportion of long receptions? My hunch is that the number of long receptions is more important; if a receiver catches a lot of bubble screens, hitches, etc. in addition to making big plays down the field then that is not a bad sign (even though it hurts his YPR). I'd identify playmakers by looking at something like TD/game and number of 40+ yard receptions per game.But that's just my intuition, not backed by data, so maybe you've already done the analysis that shows I'm wrong.

 
'Bronx Bomber said:
Chicago Bears WR Alshon Jeffery has decided not to attend the 2012 NFL Rookie Premiere, an event in Los Angeles celebrating some of the league's top rookies, so that he won't miss any time in the team's offseason program, according to a league source.

http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=786113

Sounds like he's showing signs of good character. I like seeing this.
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Sitting at the 1.9 spot in my 2qb dynasty draft and Jeffrey is probably the pick for me. Love his situation and talent. He was considered to be right there with Blackmon a year ago and had a rough year, lot's of guys have rough years. I've got him right in there behind Floyd.
 
'EBF said:
'Sabertooth said:
He's small and weak, but at least he's slow.
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Wright is going to be an interesting case study for the supremacy of the eyeball test because he ran slow at the combine, but routinely beats defenders deep on the field.4.6 speed

4.6 speed

4.6 speed

One of the most common sights in Wright's game clips is him running free deep. If he's slow, how does he always get so wide open? Sometimes he benefits by being matched up with a linebacker or safety, but even when he's facing cornerbacks he seems to run by them with ease. And I've yet to see anyone snatch him from behind.
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i think everyone was shocked by his 40 time among other measurables. great point here... so how much stock do we put on those measurables when all we can see from him at game time is explosiveness? for me, very little. i like what i've seen each and every GAME he's played.
 
'EBF said:
'Sabertooth said:
He's small and weak, but at least he's slow.
Click to expand...
Wright is going to be an interesting case study for the supremacy of the eyeball test because he ran slow at the combine, but routinely beats defenders deep on the field.4.6 speed

4.6 speed

4.6 speed

One of the most common sights in Wright's game clips is him running free deep. If he's slow, how does he always get so wide open? Sometimes he benefits by being matched up with a linebacker or safety, but even when he's facing cornerbacks he seems to run by them with ease. And I've yet to see anyone snatch him from behind.
Click to expand...
The playaction on almost every pass attempt freezes the DB's and LB's.Clicking on your first link, stare at the Safety and watch him not move his feet until a running Wright almost even with him. I'm not saying Wright is fast or slow...but that play action needs to be accounted for because the NFL game doesn't do that almost every pass play.

 
'Sabertooth said:
'Bronx Bomber said:
Chicago Bears WR Alshon Jeffery has decided not to attend the 2012 NFL Rookie Premiere, an event in Los Angeles celebrating some of the league's top rookies, so that he won't miss any time in the team's offseason program, according to a league source.

http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=786113

Sounds like he's showing signs of good character. I like seeing this.
Click to expand...
Sitting at the 1.9 spot in my 2qb dynasty draft and Jeffrey is probably the pick for me. Love his situation and talent. He was considered to be right there with Blackmon a year ago and had a rough year, lot's of guys have rough years. I've got him right in there behind Floyd.
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just so i understand this, you are willing to give a player the benefit of the doubt for an entire season, but not the 40 time in the combine? i trust the irony of Jeffrey ducking the combine isn't lost

 
'Sabertooth said:
'Bronx Bomber said:
Chicago Bears WR Alshon Jeffery has decided not to attend the 2012 NFL Rookie Premiere, an event in Los Angeles celebrating some of the league's top rookies, so that he won't miss any time in the team's offseason program, according to a league source.

http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=786113

Sounds like he's showing signs of good character. I like seeing this.
Click to expand...
Sitting at the 1.9 spot in my 2qb dynasty draft and Jeffrey is probably the pick for me. Love his situation and talent. He was considered to be right there with Blackmon a year ago and had a rough year, lot's of guys have rough years. I've got him right in there behind Floyd.
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saw this today as well. great to see him doing whatever he can and putting in the work.... i think the sky is the limit with this kid. he's never been a character concern, though people have questioned his work ethic and conditioning, i think he's got a chip (not a dorito) on his shoulder about it and has something to prove. it makes me like him even more. :banned:
 
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
The playaction on almost every pass attempt freezes the DB's and LB's.

Clicking on your first link, stare at the Safety and watch him not move his feet until a running Wright almost even with him. I'm not saying Wright is fast or slow...but that play action needs to be accounted for because the NFL game doesn't do that almost every pass play.
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If you don't find those examples convincing, you can go watch his game highlights. He's damn near uncoverable. The

games are pretty impressive.
 
'DexterDew said:
'Sabertooth said:
'Bronx Bomber said:
Chicago Bears WR Alshon Jeffery has decided not to attend the 2012 NFL Rookie Premiere, an event in Los Angeles celebrating some of the league's top rookies, so that he won't miss any time in the team's offseason program, according to a league source.

http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=786113

Sounds like he's showing signs of good character. I like seeing this.
Click to expand...
Sitting at the 1.9 spot in my 2qb dynasty draft and Jeffrey is probably the pick for me. Love his situation and talent. He was considered to be right there with Blackmon a year ago and had a rough year, lot's of guys have rough years. I've got him right in there behind Floyd.
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just so i understand this, you are willing to give a player the benefit of the doubt for an entire season, but not the 40 time in the combine? i trust the irony of Jeffrey ducking the combine isn't lost
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i dont think we need to read into it all that much. imo, it was his agent's decision and not his. he's done nothing but work his tail off for the draft and showed it on his pro day and has continued it into the bears organization and their offseason program.
 
'EBF said:
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
The playaction on almost every pass attempt freezes the DB's and LB's.

Clicking on your first link, stare at the Safety and watch him not move his feet until a running Wright almost even with him. I'm not saying Wright is fast or slow...but that play action needs to be accounted for because the NFL game doesn't do that almost every pass play.
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If you don't find those examples convincing, you can go watch his game highlights. He's damn near uncoverable. The

Click to expand...
In the TCU game he was burning JUCO transfer Jason Verrett. The best thing on his resume is that he had the most tackles by a TCU cornerback since 2001.On the long TD against Texas, that was RG3 keeping the safety guessing where he was going to throw the ball. 100 of his 166 yards was due to poor coverage and tackling by the safety Gideon on two plays.

It sounds like I'm being overly harsh on the guy but the stats don't tell the whole story.

 
'cstu said:
'EBF said:
The playaction on almost every pass attempt freezes the DB's and LB's.

Clicking on your first link, stare at the Safety and watch him not move his feet until a running Wright almost even with him. I'm not saying Wright is fast or slow...but that play action needs to be accounted for because the NFL game doesn't do that almost every pass play.
Click to expand...
If you don't find those examples convincing, you can go watch his game highlights. He's damn near uncoverable. The

Click to expand...
i think we can agree with everything you said, but you seem to dance around how fast he is, which is the point being made.
 
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i think we have established everybody's position on Wright and nothing is going to change anybody's mind. The two camps are pretty well established:

Pro-Wright

Draft Spot

Versatile Athlete

College Production

Evolving NFL into a spread pass first

Anti-Wright

RG3

Spread Off

Inferior Competition

Slow Combine

Not strong

Small

TEN (Locker not good, behind Britt and CJ in pecking order)

i guess we will all vote with our respective FF teams. Love, Peace and Humptiness.

 
'DexterDew said:
i think we have established everybody's position on Wright and nothing is going to change anybody's mind. The two camps are pretty well established:Pro-WrightDraft SpotVersatile AthleteCollege ProductionEvolving NFL into a spread pass first Anti-WrightRG3Spread OffInferior CompetitionSlow CombineNot strongSmallTEN (Locker not good, behind Britt and CJ in pecking order)i guess we will all vote with our respective FF teams. Love, Peace and Humptiness.
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seems about right, however, i don't understand how you can say locker is not good when he's played in 5 NFL games and thrown 66 passes. it's a bit premature to be making that kind of conclusion if you ask me. anyway, why throw in the towel now? there's always going to be two sides, i don't think the discussion needs to end or anything.
 
'werdnoynek said:
'cstu said:
The playaction on almost every pass attempt freezes the DB's and LB's.

Clicking on your first link, stare at the Safety and watch him not move his feet until a running Wright almost even with him. I'm not saying Wright is fast or slow...but that play action needs to be accounted for because the NFL game doesn't do that almost every pass play.
Click to expand...
If you don't find those examples convincing, you can go watch his game highlights. He's damn near uncoverable. The

Click to expand...
He's fast enough for the NFL. He's not the speedster he was made out to be, that's not my main concern with him.
 
'werdnoynek said:
seems about right, however, i don't understand how you can say locker is not good when he's played in 5 NFL games and thrown 66 passes. it's a bit premature to be making that kind of conclusion if you ask me. anyway, why throw in the towel now? there's always going to be two sides, i don't think the discussion needs to end or anything.
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i like Locker, others don't. So I conceded the point. IMHO, this is a much better situation than going to SF, ARI, CLE, MIA or JAX. Wanted him to go to CAR to be the heir to Smith and develope with Cami'm "throwing in the towel" because minds are not going to get changed. No biggie.
 
'werdnoynek said:
'EBF said:
'Sabertooth said:
He's small and weak, but at least he's slow.
Click to expand...
Wright is going to be an interesting case study for the supremacy of the eyeball test because he ran slow at the combine, but routinely beats defenders deep on the field.4.6 speed

4.6 speed

4.6 speed

One of the most common sights in Wright's game clips is him running free deep. If he's slow, how does he always get so wide open? Sometimes he benefits by being matched up with a linebacker or safety, but even when he's facing cornerbacks he seems to run by them with ease. And I've yet to see anyone snatch him from behind.
Click to expand...
i think everyone was shocked by his 40 time among other measurables. great point here... so how much stock do we put on those measurables when all we can see from him at game time is explosiveness? for me, very little. i like what i've seen each and every GAME he's played.
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Well, when you play an up tempo style like they did at Baylor, you bag up the coverages sometimes. Doesn't matter if he's slow if the defense doesn't know where he is at all. Just saying that confusion might be one reason he got deep on people.
 
6 of my 7 rookie drafts are done. Out of those 6 leagues, I own these players this many times:

4 - Bernard Pierce

4 - Edwin Baker

3 - TJ Graham

3 - Kendall Wright

3 - Andrew Luck

2 - Rueben Randle

2 - Coby Fleener

2 - Trent Richardson

1 - Justin Blackmon

1 - Doug Martin

1 - Chris Givens

1 - AJ Jenkins

1 - Orson Charles

1 - Nick Foles

I sometimes feel like the best indication of who you really like in a rookie draft is not who you rank high, but who you actually end up acquiring for your teams. For better or worse, the above list provides a pretty accurate indication of "my guys" in this draft.

Baker is my favorite talent of the rounds 5-7 RBs and he has a sneaky good opportunity in a relatively weak backfield behind the brittle Ryan Mathews. The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.

 
'EBF said:
6 of my 7 rookie drafts are done. Out of those 6 leagues, I own these players this many times:

4 - Bernard Pierce

4 - Edwin Baker

3 - TJ Graham

3 - Kendall Wright

3 - Andrew Luck

2 - Rueben Randle

2 - Coby Fleener

2 - Trent Richardson

1 - Justin Blackmon

1 - Doug Martin

1 - Chris Givens

1 - AJ Jenkins

1 - Orson Charles

1 - Nick Foles

I sometimes feel like the best indication of who you really like in a rookie draft is not who you rank high, but who you actually end up acquiring for your teams. For better or worse, the above list provides a pretty accurate indication of "my guys" in this draft.

Baker is my favorite talent of the rounds 5-7 RBs and he has a sneaky good opportunity in a relatively weak backfield behind the brittle Ryan Mathews. The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.
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As a N.C. State fan, I'm surprised at the bolded. Are you playing in leagues that give points for return yardage? I do not expect him to make an impact as a WR in the NFL.
 
'EBF said:
6 of my 7 rookie drafts are done. Out of those 6 leagues, I own these players this many times:4 - Bernard Pierce4 - Edwin Baker3 - TJ Graham3 - Kendall Wright3 - Andrew Luck2 - Rueben Randle2 - Coby Fleener2 - Trent Richardson1 - Justin Blackmon1 - Doug Martin1 - Chris Givens1 - AJ Jenkins1 - Orson Charles1 - Nick FolesI sometimes feel like the best indication of who you really like in a rookie draft is not who you rank high, but who you actually end up acquiring for your teams. For better or worse, the above list provides a pretty accurate indication of "my guys" in this draft. Baker is my favorite talent of the rounds 5-7 RBs and he has a sneaky good opportunity in a relatively weak backfield behind the brittle Ryan Mathews. The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.
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I think draft pick becomes less important once you get to the mid rounds, as it becomes more important to draft for upside (which matters much more for fantasy than in the NFL) and to downgrade role players (who have more NFL value than fantasy value). Posey looks like a slot guy, and I think Graham gets a lot of his value from special teams (where he got the majority of his touches in college - he peaked at 46/757/7 receiving). I like the upside of Hilton, Childs, and Givens - Hilton has similar speed and a better QB (and did more on offense in college), Childs fell in part because of injury question marks, and Givens also looked like he could be a big-time playmaker.
 
'Just Win Baby said:
'EBF said:
6 of my 7 rookie drafts are done. Out of those 6 leagues, I own these players this many times:

4 - Bernard Pierce

4 - Edwin Baker

3 - TJ Graham

3 - Kendall Wright

3 - Andrew Luck

2 - Rueben Randle

2 - Coby Fleener

2 - Trent Richardson

1 - Justin Blackmon

1 - Doug Martin

1 - Chris Givens

1 - AJ Jenkins

1 - Orson Charles

1 - Nick Foles

I sometimes feel like the best indication of who you really like in a rookie draft is not who you rank high, but who you actually end up acquiring for your teams. For better or worse, the above list provides a pretty accurate indication of "my guys" in this draft.

Baker is my favorite talent of the rounds 5-7 RBs and he has a sneaky good opportunity in a relatively weak backfield behind the brittle Ryan Mathews. The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.
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As a N.C. State fan, I'm surprised at the bolded. Are you playing in leagues that give points for return yardage? I do not expect him to make an impact as a WR in the NFL.
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I'm curious to why you don't think he will have an impact? The Bills didn't trade up in the 3rd (even though just 2 spots) for a return guy, they have enough of them. I really think Nixs and Gailey feel like he can have a serious role in that offense. It almost seems like they had him in mind from the beginning and wanted to make sure they got the wr they wanted. I don't know too much about him but I Gailey is a offensive guru and I think he might do some work with Graham.
 
'EBF said:
6 of my 7 rookie drafts are done. Out of those 6 leagues, I own these players this many times:4 - Bernard Pierce4 - Edwin Baker3 - TJ Graham3 - Kendall Wright3 - Andrew Luck2 - Rueben Randle2 - Coby Fleener2 - Trent Richardson1 - Justin Blackmon1 - Doug Martin1 - Chris Givens1 - AJ Jenkins1 - Orson Charles1 - Nick FolesI sometimes feel like the best indication of who you really like in a rookie draft is not who you rank high, but who you actually end up acquiring for your teams. For better or worse, the above list provides a pretty accurate indication of "my guys" in this draft. Baker is my favorite talent of the rounds 5-7 RBs and he has a sneaky good opportunity in a relatively weak backfield behind the brittle Ryan Mathews. The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.
Click to expand...
What different is Baker from Curtis Brinkley?
 
'Devine Intervention said:
'Just Win Baby said:
'EBF said:
The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.
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As a N.C. State fan, I'm surprised at the bolded. Are you playing in leagues that give points for return yardage? I do not expect him to make an impact as a WR in the NFL.
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I'm curious to why you don't think he will have an impact? The Bills didn't trade up in the 3rd (even though just 2 spots) for a return guy, they have enough of them. I really think Nixs and Gailey feel like he can have a serious role in that offense. It almost seems like they had him in mind from the beginning and wanted to make sure they got the wr they wanted. I don't know too much about him but I Gailey is a offensive guru and I think he might do some work with Graham.
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Look, I'm a fan of Graham. I watched every game he played at State that was televised, and attended several in person. I hope he surprises and does well in the NFL.Here are the issues:

- Small stature

- Below average route runner

- Unreliable across the middle; used mostly on deep routes and bubble screens at State

- Tracks deep balls well but doesn't have the strength or athleticism to win jump balls

- Willing but poor blocker

Keep in mind, he played with Russell Wilson for three seasons and then Mike Glennon for his final season. During Graham's last three seasons, Wilson and Glennon combined to throw for 9444/90, and Graham had 83/1202/12 receiving over a span of 31 games. That's not particularly strong production for being in such a great situation. 12 TDs is pretty good, and that reflects his ability to get deep... I'm not convinced he'll have that same ability against NFL corners.

Mayock had Graham as a seventh rounder. :shrug:

Now, Graham was a very strong kickoff and punt returner. I assumed that whoever drafted him would be planning to use him in that capacity, and he could definitely add some value there.

 
It's more about cost with him. You can get him in the late third round, which seems like a good gamble for a WR with his draft pedigree and 40 time. I'm not at all convinced that he's a can't-miss guy, but the risk is virtually non-existent because he costs nothing.

 
'Xue said:
'EBF said:
6 of my 7 rookie drafts are done. Out of those 6 leagues, I own these players this many times:4 - Bernard Pierce4 - Edwin Baker3 - TJ Graham3 - Kendall Wright3 - Andrew Luck2 - Rueben Randle2 - Coby Fleener2 - Trent Richardson1 - Justin Blackmon1 - Doug Martin1 - Chris Givens1 - AJ Jenkins1 - Orson Charles1 - Nick FolesI sometimes feel like the best indication of who you really like in a rookie draft is not who you rank high, but who you actually end up acquiring for your teams. For better or worse, the above list provides a pretty accurate indication of "my guys" in this draft. Baker is my favorite talent of the rounds 5-7 RBs and he has a sneaky good opportunity in a relatively weak backfield behind the brittle Ryan Mathews. The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.
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What different is Baker from Curtis Brinkley?
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He's a rookie :shrug:
 
'EBF said:
6 of my 7 rookie drafts are done. Out of those 6 leagues, I own these players this many times:4 - Bernard Pierce4 - Edwin Baker3 - TJ Graham3 - Kendall Wright3 - Andrew Luck2 - Rueben Randle2 - Coby Fleener2 - Trent Richardson1 - Justin Blackmon1 - Doug Martin1 - Chris Givens1 - AJ Jenkins1 - Orson Charles1 - Nick FolesI sometimes feel like the best indication of who you really like in a rookie draft is not who you rank high, but who you actually end up acquiring for your teams. For better or worse, the above list provides a pretty accurate indication of "my guys" in this draft. Baker is my favorite talent of the rounds 5-7 RBs and he has a sneaky good opportunity in a relatively weak backfield behind the brittle Ryan Mathews. The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.
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No Michael Floyd, huh? It's interesting to me that you argued so in favor of him being a No. 1 WR while I argued against, yet I ended up with him in one league (though that was a developmental pick from two years ago) and you didn't get him in any!
 
'BeTheMatch said:
'EBF said:
6 of my 7 rookie drafts are done. Out of those 6 leagues, I own these players this many times:4 - Bernard Pierce4 - Edwin Baker3 - TJ Graham3 - Kendall Wright3 - Andrew Luck2 - Rueben Randle2 - Coby Fleener2 - Trent Richardson1 - Justin Blackmon1 - Doug Martin1 - Chris Givens1 - AJ Jenkins1 - Orson Charles1 - Nick FolesI sometimes feel like the best indication of who you really like in a rookie draft is not who you rank high, but who you actually end up acquiring for your teams. For better or worse, the above list provides a pretty accurate indication of "my guys" in this draft. Baker is my favorite talent of the rounds 5-7 RBs and he has a sneaky good opportunity in a relatively weak backfield behind the brittle Ryan Mathews. The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.
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No Michael Floyd, huh? It's interesting to me that you argued so in favor of him being a No. 1 WR while I argued against, yet I ended up with him in one league (though that was a developmental pick from two years ago) and you didn't get him in any!
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Where was that discussion? Also odd that he took Wright over him if he was so in favor, but things change over time.
 
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'BeTheMatch said:
'EBF said:
6 of my 7 rookie drafts are done. Out of those 6 leagues, I own these players this many times:4 - Bernard Pierce4 - Edwin Baker3 - TJ Graham3 - Kendall Wright3 - Andrew Luck2 - Rueben Randle2 - Coby Fleener2 - Trent Richardson1 - Justin Blackmon1 - Doug Martin1 - Chris Givens1 - AJ Jenkins1 - Orson Charles1 - Nick FolesI sometimes feel like the best indication of who you really like in a rookie draft is not who you rank high, but who you actually end up acquiring for your teams. For better or worse, the above list provides a pretty accurate indication of "my guys" in this draft. Baker is my favorite talent of the rounds 5-7 RBs and he has a sneaky good opportunity in a relatively weak backfield behind the brittle Ryan Mathews. The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.
Click to expand...
No Michael Floyd, huh? It's interesting to me that you argued so in favor of him being a No. 1 WR while I argued against, yet I ended up with him in one league (though that was a developmental pick from two years ago) and you didn't get him in any!
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Where was that discussion? Also odd that he took Wright over him if he was so in favor, but things change over time.
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Add to that, in the league I am in he took the lower draft pick Givens at 3.06, while TJ Graham was still on the board (contrary to the above). However, as I mentioned earlier, I didn't draft players in the same order in all leagues because the processing of information following the NFL draft will cause me to reassess my rankings constantly for the first few weeks until they finally get settled (sadly after most of my rookie drafts are over).And as one who has had rankings published in the past (dynasty, not rookie) you can say you prefer one player above another, but you don't really know for sure who you will actually pick until you are on the clock and sometimes it isn't the player you said you liked better. :bag:
 
'squistion said:
Add to that, in the league I am in he took the lower draft pick Givens at 3.06, while TJ Graham was still on the board (contrary to the above).
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I don't think he's saying he likes Graham more than Givens. In fact he has Givens ranked #24 in the OP and didn't list Graham.
 
'thriftyrocker said:
'squistion said:
Add to that, in the league I am in he took the lower draft pick Givens at 3.06, while TJ Graham was still on the board (contrary to the above).
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I don't think he's saying he likes Graham more than Givens. In fact he has Givens ranked #24 in the OP and didn't list Graham.
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Draft position isn't always a good indicator of fantasy relevance since WR's with return skills, like Graham, tend go higher.
 
'thriftyrocker said:
'squistion said:
Add to that, in the league I am in he took the lower draft pick Givens at 3.06, while TJ Graham was still on the board (contrary to the above).
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I don't think he's saying he likes Graham more than Givens. In fact he has Givens ranked #24 in the OP and didn't list Graham.
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OK, that makes sense. He did say Graham might be the best overall value, which is not the same as saying that he liked him better.
 
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'BeTheMatch said:
'EBF said:
6 of my 7 rookie drafts are done. Out of those 6 leagues, I own these players this many times:4 - Bernard Pierce4 - Edwin Baker3 - TJ Graham3 - Kendall Wright3 - Andrew Luck2 - Rueben Randle2 - Coby Fleener2 - Trent Richardson1 - Justin Blackmon1 - Doug Martin1 - Chris Givens1 - AJ Jenkins1 - Orson Charles1 - Nick FolesI sometimes feel like the best indication of who you really like in a rookie draft is not who you rank high, but who you actually end up acquiring for your teams. For better or worse, the above list provides a pretty accurate indication of "my guys" in this draft. Baker is my favorite talent of the rounds 5-7 RBs and he has a sneaky good opportunity in a relatively weak backfield behind the brittle Ryan Mathews. The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.
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No Michael Floyd, huh? It's interesting to me that you argued so in favor of him being a No. 1 WR while I argued against, yet I ended up with him in one league (though that was a developmental pick from two years ago) and you didn't get him in any!
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EBF did draft Floyd in one league but then traded him and some pieces for Stewart FWIW.
 
Does anyone know if Lamar Miller dropped for any other reason other than shoulder/knee issues?

Are they degenerative/on-going problems? How bad are the injuries?

When I watch tape of Miller I see a guy who cuts fast and without losing speed. I see patience and feeling for how/where things will open up. I see great top end speed.

Reminds me a lot of Jamaal Charles, complete with shoulder problems.

 
'ty247 said:
Does anyone know if Lamar Miller dropped for any other reason other than shoulder/knee issues?Are they degenerative/on-going problems? How bad are the injuries?When I watch tape of Miller I see a guy who cuts fast and without losing speed. I see patience and feeling for how/where things will open up. I see great top end speed.Reminds me a lot of Jamaal Charles, complete with shoulder problems.
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Reportedly he failed the football IQ tests at the combine.
 
'MAC_32 said:
'ty247 said:
Does anyone know if Lamar Miller dropped for any other reason other than shoulder/knee issues?Are they degenerative/on-going problems? How bad are the injuries?When I watch tape of Miller I see a guy who cuts fast and without losing speed. I see patience and feeling for how/where things will open up. I see great top end speed.Reminds me a lot of Jamaal Charles, complete with shoulder problems.
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Reportedly he failed the football IQ tests at the combine.
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Yep.
 
'EBF said:
6 of my 7 rookie drafts are done. Out of those 6 leagues, I own these players this many times:

4 - Bernard Pierce

4 - Edwin Baker

3 - TJ Graham

3 - Kendall Wright

3 - Andrew Luck

2 - Rueben Randle

2 - Coby Fleener

2 - Trent Richardson

1 - Justin Blackmon

1 - Doug Martin

1 - Chris Givens

1 - AJ Jenkins

1 - Orson Charles

1 - Nick Foles

I sometimes feel like the best indication of who you really like in a rookie draft is not who you rank high, but who you actually end up acquiring for your teams. For better or worse, the above list provides a pretty accurate indication of "my guys" in this draft.

Baker is my favorite talent of the rounds 5-7 RBs and he has a sneaky good opportunity in a relatively weak backfield behind the brittle Ryan Mathews. The best overall value of this year's rookie drafts might be TJ Graham simply because he falls extremely far for a high 3rd round WR with elite speed. I got him with the 33rd pick of a PPR draft today. TY Hilton, Nick Toon, Greg Childs, Marvin Jones, Chris Givens, and Mohamed Sanu all went higher even though they were lower draft picks. The same basically applies for DeVier Posey, though I'm not quite as high on him.
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Graham's longterm value seems to be gaining some positive traction from OTAs and minicamp observations so far. I think it might just be a case of him being a late bloomer and needing a better supporting cast/system to excel. It sounds like the Bills like him so far though and he's showing a lot of what Melton saw at the Sr. Bowl: Reading Tom Melton's blog helps me believe this more and more, where he ranked the Top 5 at each offensive position from this past Senior Bowl:

Wide Receiver:

1- TJ Graham, WR, North Carolina State: Graham definitely helped himself this week, perhaps more than any receiver here. His speed is extremely evident and he looks like he will be running in the 4.3’s in the 40 yard dash, but he also caught the ball well, created separation with his route running, and overall looked like one of the more impressive receivers here. I really liked him as a sleeper and he looked terrific in his final game at NC State, but between that and this week of productive practices he should be on everyone’s radar by now. He’s a guy that I might have a 3rd round grade on once I finish my film study on him.

Wide Receivers:

It was a pretty easy day for the receivers today, but I think the guy that stuck out most to me was TJ Graham (North Carolina State). He clearly has 4.4 speed (could run as fast as a 4.35 in my opinion) and his explosiveness and burst was on full display today. He created separation nearly every time I watched him run a route and he caught the ball cleanly every single rep I saw of him. He has the potential to be a HUGE riser this week, especially if he plays like this every day of practice. Obviously this was just one day, but this definitely showed the upside Graham has as a receiver. Don’t forget he’s also a valuable return man.

Senior Bowl Stock Up post:

TJ Graham, WR, North Carolina State: I’m not sure I saw Graham drop a ball all week, though I wasn’t always focused on him during practices. He’s got great speed, he’s very explosive as a receiver and as a return man, and he consistently ran good routes this week. He had a few nice catches in the game today and had a pretty nice kick return as well. I think Graham warrants 3rd round consideration.

More recent press from Buffalo minicamp: Buffalo Bills: T.J. Graham Impressing at Minicamp

Again, just minicamp (not even training camp) fluff, and one guy's opinion from a second tier college all star game, but it's still encouraging to see. It could've been like some of the early AJ Jenkins (who the Bills were also eyeing for this role in the 3rd round, but he was taken) chatter. Their WR situation is a mess, but he's the only guy Gailey really hand picked.

 
Unfortunately Graham's hands are a detriment. I think I read he had the smallest hands of wrs at the combine. His tape running the gauntlet showed him flubbing passes and at the OTAs he's reported as having had bad drops to go along with some big plays.

He's has speed and agility and is a vertical threat but his hands IMO are going to hold him back and his coaches and QB may come to not trust him in key situations and keep him in a 3rd/4th wr receiver role.

 
Not to mention the Bills have been one of, if not the, worst drafting franchises in the league over the past decade. Personally, I won't be passing on guys with both better size and better college production (Mohamed Sanu, Juron Criner, Chris Givens) for T.J Graham just because the Bills reached for him in the early 3rd round; and I'm generally in favour of drafting players based on how they were drafted in the NFL draft.

As far as spending a lottery ticket by drafting a mid round pick smaller/slot type WR for the off chance they become fantasy relevant, I'd much take my chances on Devon Wylie.

 
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He's 5'11" 188, which is big enough for a speedy deep threat type. As for him being a "reach" in the 3rd round, that's hard to say without knowing where other teams might have had him on their boards. It seems like teams usually have pretty good intel on where players are going to come off the board, so if Buffalo felt they needed to take him that high then there's a pretty decent chance that he wasn't going to drop much more. Greg Cosell has a pretty good handle on players from what I can tell, and he seemed to think it was a solid pick.

Sanu and Criner are bigger targets. On the other hand, they're also extremely slow. I like Sanu's game and I think he has a chance to be a solid complementary guy, but in FF I'd much rather have someone who potentially has #1 target upside. Graham might be that guy. A best case scenario for him would be Mike Wallace, another underhyped third rounder with elite speed and modest college production. We all know how he turned out.

Do I think Graham is going to become that kind of player in the NFL? I definitely wouldn't bet on it. He's more likely to fail than succeed, but the pedigree/upside/opportunity is very intriguing, especially when you factor in the low cost of acquisition. I was able to scoop him off waivers in a couple leagues, which is crazy for a third rounder with starting potential and 4.3 wheels. So far the reports have been very positive.

 
'EBF said:
He's 5'11" 188, which is big enough for a speedy deep threat type. As for him being a "reach" in the 3rd round, that's hard to say without knowing where other teams might have had him on their boards. It seems like teams usually have pretty good intel on where players are going to come off the board, so if Buffalo felt they needed to take him that high then there's a pretty decent chance that he wasn't going to drop much more. Greg Cosell has a pretty good handle on players from what I can tell, and he seemed to think it was a solid pick. Sanu and Criner are bigger targets. On the other hand, they're also extremely slow. I like Sanu's game and I think he has a chance to be a solid complementary guy, but in FF I'd much rather have someone who potentially has #1 target upside. Graham might be that guy. A best case scenario for him would be Mike Wallace, another underhyped third rounder with elite speed and modest college production. We all know how he turned out. Do I think Graham is going to become that kind of player in the NFL? I definitely wouldn't bet on it. He's more likely to fail than succeed, but the pedigree/upside/opportunity is very intriguing, especially when you factor in the low cost of acquisition. I was able to scoop him off waivers in a couple leagues, which is crazy for a third rounder with starting potential and 4.3 wheels. So far the reports have been very positive.
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When you say the pedigree is intriguing, what exactly do you mean?
 
Graham is going to be a decoy. Fitzpatrick doesn't have much of an arm to get the ball to Graham.

 
'Xue said:
Graham is going to be a decoy. Fitzpatrick doesn't have much of an arm to get the ball to Graham.
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I'll be stone cold shocked if Graham beats out a healthy Easley. Easley's a lot bigger, he's faster and he's more than likely also a better WR in terms of ability to get open and make tough catches.
 
'wdcrob said:
'Xue said:
Graham is going to be a decoy. Fitzpatrick doesn't have much of an arm to get the ball to Graham.
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I'll be stone cold shocked if Graham beats out a healthy Easley. Easley's a lot bigger, he's faster and he's more than likely also a better WR in terms of ability to get open and make tough catches.
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When I read this I thought no way is Easley faster than Graham, then I went and looked, and from their 40 times it looks like Easley is indeed faster than Graham. Very interesting. Love reading this kind of stuff.
 
'Just Win Baby said:
When you say the pedigree is intriguing, what exactly do you mean?
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Mainly draft position. A random third round pick has something like a 25-30% chance of becoming a relevant FF asset, so that alone offers cause for optimism. And Graham was a pretty high third rounder who Buffalo traded up to get.
 
'wdcrob said:
'Xue said:
Graham is going to be a decoy. Fitzpatrick doesn't have much of an arm to get the ball to Graham.
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I'll be stone cold shocked if Graham beats out a healthy Easley. Easley's a lot bigger, he's faster and he's more than likely also a better WR in terms of ability to get open and make tough catches.
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Shocked?Easley has been in the league for two years and has never caught a pass. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of his football ability. He could be a late bloomer, but he has always seemed like more of a workout warrior than a football player. I think you tend to overrate those types.Graham is actually the same type of prospect in terms of having great tools and modest production, but he was a higher draft pick. all things being similar, I'd rather bet on the rookie who has never played a down than the guy who has been around for longer and failed to make any impact. I know Easley had some medical issues, but if he was healthy this past season and couldn't even get on the field for a weak Buffalo team then I'm definitely skeptical of his ability.
 
'EBF said:
'wdcrob said:
'Xue said:
Graham is going to be a decoy. Fitzpatrick doesn't have much of an arm to get the ball to Graham.
Click to expand...
I'll be stone cold shocked if Graham beats out a healthy Easley. Easley's a lot bigger, he's faster and he's more than likely also a better WR in terms of ability to get open and make tough catches.
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Shocked?Easley has been in the league for two years and has never caught a pass. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of his football ability. He could be a late bloomer, but he has always seemed like more of a workout warrior than a football player. I think you tend to overrate those types.

Graham is actually the same type of prospect in terms of having great tools and modest production, but he was a higher draft pick. all things being similar, I'd rather bet on the rookie who has never played a down than the guy who has been around for longer and failed to make any impact. I know Easley had some medical issues, but if he was healthy this past season and couldn't even get on the field for a weak Buffalo team then I'm definitely skeptical of his ability.
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Easley missed all of 2010 due to knee injury and all of 2011 due to heart problem so I dont think you can question his ability in that way yet. I look at him as a rookie with advanced playbook knowledge

 
'EBF said:
'wdcrob said:
'Xue said:
Graham is going to be a decoy. Fitzpatrick doesn't have much of an arm to get the ball to Graham.
Click to expand...
I'll be stone cold shocked if Graham beats out a healthy Easley. Easley's a lot bigger, he's faster and he's more than likely also a better WR in terms of ability to get open and make tough catches.
Click to expand...
Shocked?Easley has been in the league for two years and has never caught a pass. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of his football ability. He could be a late bloomer, but he has always seemed like more of a workout warrior than a football player. I think you tend to overrate those types.Graham is actually the same type of prospect in terms of having great tools and modest production, but he was a higher draft pick. all things being similar, I'd rather bet on the rookie who has never played a down than the guy who has been around for longer and failed to make any impact. I know Easley had some medical issues, but if he was healthy this past season and couldn't even get on the field for a weak Buffalo team then I'm definitely skeptical of his ability.
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I'm fairly certain Easley had a pretty serious heart condition last season that he's now recovered from. Not really his fault.
 
I'll pile on and say the "Easley has never caught a pass argument" holds little merit considering the circumstances.

 
EBF,

Have your rankings stayed the same while we progress thru mini camps if you did or do edit them, would it be in the original post or a reply thread?

 
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