EBF
Footballguy
I would post new rankings in a reply if I had any significant changes. Not much has changed yet.
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[DYNASTY] 2012 Top 24 Rookies (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
It's still early and not a ton has really changed for me yet. Depending on the league setup, I would be inclined to rank Luck higher. If your scoring is slanted towards quarterbacks, I think a strong case can be made for him in the top two picks and possibly even at number one. He looks like the best player in the draft. What I said about scarcity still applies though. In most single QB leagues it is easy to trade for a serviceable FF starter like Ryan, Flacco, or Cutler. Meanwhile a starting RB will cost you a fortune. From that standpoint Richardson and Martin are gold, but neither will have the longevity of Luck. The same more or less applies for Griffin, though I'm not quite as high on him. I'd probably bump Wright over Floyd. It is close for me, but when I was actually faced with this decision in a PPR rookie draft, I surprised myself and took Wright over Floyd. Wright just seems like a solid player to me. Not a world beater, but a guy like Santonio Holmes who can be a really solid FF WR2. I still like Pierce as a prospect, but it's tough to see where his opportunity is going to come from now that Ray Rice is locked up on a long term deal. I think Pierce has a lot of value as a stash in deep leagues, but I would probably avoid him in leagues where roster spots are precious. You're probably looking at a 2-3 year wait before you see any return on your investment. That's hard to stomach.I am still relatively down on Hillman and Pead. I just don't see it with those two. Tannehill and Jeffery are creeping up for me. I don't want to overreact to the preseason, but if I'm drafting tomorrow I feel like I'd probably take Jeffery ahead of Jenkins and Quick. And while I still have my doubts about Tannehill, he at least doesn't seem to be a complete bust at this early juncture. TJ Graham is a guy who would definitely make my top 24 today. He has built a nice buzz in Buffalo practices and has carried that over with some decent performances in their first two preseason games. Considering that he was an early third round pick by the Bills, he has been flying under the radar. Nick Foles and Russell Wilson are two other guys who could be nice values, but who I'd probably hesitate to use a high pick on.
EBF
Footballguy
Some updated thoughts after the first few preseason games:
- My top 4 is probably Richardson, Martin, Blackmon, and Luck in that order. Luck is the best prospect in the draft and the best pick if you are thinking extremely long term or if you play in a format that places a premium on QB scoring, but his value suffers because of the position he plays. It is easy to find a serviceable FF QB, whereas teams often struggle to acquire the same caliber of player at WR or RB. Richardson and Martin should have huge redraft value if healthy. They have all the tools to be top 10 backs this year.
- My next 4 guys would be Griffin, Wright, Wilson, and Floyd. No big surprises there. Wilson has a lot of upside and I would caution against downgrading Floyd based on his slow start. The buzz all along was that they would bring him up to speed slowly.
- Some guys rising up my board: Robert Turbin, Dwayne Allen, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, TJ Graham. They all look like they belong at this level. Alshon Jeffery has had some nice moments. I think he can be a starter for Chicago, but I still wonder if he runs well enough to be a #1 some day. My guess right now would be no, but he has moved up in my estimation.
- I remain relatively down on Isaiah Pead, Ronnie Hillman, and Stephen Hill. I also wonder if I didn't overrate Coby Fleener. It is hard to predict what kind of value he will have. Allen has looked like a solid player and perhaps a better fit for the pro game. Fleener has better big play skills though.
- I'm trying not to go overboard with preseason darlings like Alfred Morris, Rod Streater, and Daryl Richardson. They are worth a roster spot in deep leagues, but I wouldn't take them over many of the prospects selected in the top 100 of the draft. It is a long way to go from being an unheralded draft prospect to a regular NFL contributor. By the same token, I wouldn't be panicking about guys like Michael Floyd, Bernard Pierce, AJ Jenkins, and LaMichael James just because they have been quiet so far. Usually there's a good reason why a player was/wasn't a high pick, and you have to keep that in mind when trying to gauge the value of prospects who have yet to play a meaningful game.
- My top 4 is probably Richardson, Martin, Blackmon, and Luck in that order. Luck is the best prospect in the draft and the best pick if you are thinking extremely long term or if you play in a format that places a premium on QB scoring, but his value suffers because of the position he plays. It is easy to find a serviceable FF QB, whereas teams often struggle to acquire the same caliber of player at WR or RB. Richardson and Martin should have huge redraft value if healthy. They have all the tools to be top 10 backs this year.
- My next 4 guys would be Griffin, Wright, Wilson, and Floyd. No big surprises there. Wilson has a lot of upside and I would caution against downgrading Floyd based on his slow start. The buzz all along was that they would bring him up to speed slowly.
- Some guys rising up my board: Robert Turbin, Dwayne Allen, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, TJ Graham. They all look like they belong at this level. Alshon Jeffery has had some nice moments. I think he can be a starter for Chicago, but I still wonder if he runs well enough to be a #1 some day. My guess right now would be no, but he has moved up in my estimation.
- I remain relatively down on Isaiah Pead, Ronnie Hillman, and Stephen Hill. I also wonder if I didn't overrate Coby Fleener. It is hard to predict what kind of value he will have. Allen has looked like a solid player and perhaps a better fit for the pro game. Fleener has better big play skills though.
- I'm trying not to go overboard with preseason darlings like Alfred Morris, Rod Streater, and Daryl Richardson. They are worth a roster spot in deep leagues, but I wouldn't take them over many of the prospects selected in the top 100 of the draft. It is a long way to go from being an unheralded draft prospect to a regular NFL contributor. By the same token, I wouldn't be panicking about guys like Michael Floyd, Bernard Pierce, AJ Jenkins, and LaMichael James just because they have been quiet so far. Usually there's a good reason why a player was/wasn't a high pick, and you have to keep that in mind when trying to gauge the value of prospects who have yet to play a meaningful game.
Shanahanigans
Footballguy
Any new thoughts on Weeden after seeing him play? The stats look bad, but I haven't been able to watch him this preseason.
Papa Georgio
Footballguy
There hasn't been much chatter about Lamar Miller lately either. His stats and opportunities haven't looked very good.
EBF
Footballguy
I haven't been following him closely because I don't have him on any teams. I'm not too optimistic about his future though.
munchkin
Footballguy
There hasn't been much to go on in the preseason. It is difficult to make assessments on players now that the camps are no longer open to the public. He hasn't had too many touches to evaluate in the preseason games.
daveR
Footballguy
Weeden looks like a legit rookie QB. He has the arm & the poise, but has a ways to go. Re-draft, no. Dynasty, yes.
EBF
Footballguy
He strikes me as the type of guy who could have a decent season as a stopgap, but who lacks the upside to ever be a long term starter at the pro level.I don't have a great handle on Oakland's WRs, but if I had to pick one for the long term I would probably go with Moore.
squistion
Footballguy
Among the rookies, I thought Criner was the long term answer for the big, move-the-chains possession receiver the Raiders have been missing since Zack Miller left town. And that still may be the case as evidenced by the two late game TDs he scored Saturday, here is a link to those catches: http://justblogbaby.com/2012/08/26/the-terrelle-pryor-juron-criner-show/However, in the preseason, Streater has been the guy Palmer has been looking to when he needs to make a play and I have been hedging my bets on Criner in dynasty leagues by also picking up Streater. Moore and DHB will be the starters, but Streater could emerge as the slot receiver. He still has to contend with Ford, but my enthusiam for Ford has waned with his inability to stay healthy (and not being at all that impressive when I last saw him play). And considering the WR corps seemed a fragile bunch last year, it does not seem unlikely that Streater could get a shot again if the injury bug strikes.
saintfool
Dead sexy
I imagine that he will get some significant burn in tomorrow's final preseason game.
