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Everyone is sleeping on....


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This thread is not just about your individual list of sleepers. But rather who you think is that one guy that no one seems to be talking much about. Someone that only your fantasy genius mind looks at and says "BREAKOUT ALERT!" even if the pack mentality hasn't quite caught up with your superior intellect yet.

For me that guy is Donald Brown. I like to look for players who have shown clear sign of improvement, development and maturity. Brown has done all of that. I like to look for guys who may not have played much but has shown few but unmistakable flashes of big time play making ability. Check mark on Brown again. Not to toot my own horn too much but I have been on a very very good streak picking these types of guys the last few years. I hit on Ray Rice in 09, Foster in 10, and Wells in '11. I targeted all three of them specifically as must have sleepers and made sure I got them. Take that for what you will but this year that guy is Brown. High end RB2 floor, top 5-8 ceiling, both ppr and standard and very few people are talking about him.

Who do you think everyone is sleeping on?

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I think people are writing off Michael Crabtree too early. His second half of the season he turned in nice production.

This is the first time that he'll

A. Be present for a full round of OTA's and mini camps.

B. Be healthy, as his foot problems seem to be a thing of the past.

C. Going into a season not having to deal with a new offense, or wondering who his quarterback will be.

I think Crabtree stands to benefit more than any other 49er this year. Teams have to focus on Vernon Davis, and are going to try to prevent Manningham/Moss from going deep. I think Crabtree will have a lot of room to work, so I expect a lot of receptions and 8 or so TD's.

Nate Washington could potentially fall into the category as well. With the names of Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright on the roster I think many will look at him as the third guy in the pecking order. I've read that for this year at least, Kendall Wright will be playing the same position behind Kenny Britt. There will be a learning curve with Wright, and why I like his long term potential, I don't think he shows it this year.

Meanwhile, Kenny Britt's knee still isn't 100% and could have to go in for a clean up procedure. They can say it's minor, but given Britt's history of injuries I don't think we can call any surgery minor.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Nat Washington duplicate, or maybe improve a little over last years numbers.

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Assuming he doesn't get suspended, Darrius Heyward-Bey. FFC has him as the #42 wr. He had 4 games where he combined to go 1 catch for 5 yards. Still had 64-975-4 on the season. In his final 7 games, all with Carson Palmer at qb, he went 37-541-3, which would prorate to 85-1237-7 over 16 games. He'd be great to draft as a #3/4 wr for your team, with the upside to be a strong wr2.

edit: In Palmer's 1st game with the team (his crappy game vs KC) DHB still had 5-89. So in 8 games with Palmer he went 42-630-3

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ANDRE ROBERTS - 24 catches and 300 yards in his last 5 games, with a sub-par QB.I don't think Michael Floyd will suck away that action right away.

He's got the same sub-par QB(s?) AND Floyd to contend with. Not seeing it.
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I think Randall Cobbis going to continue to ascend. Jones isnt improving, Driver is on his farewell tour, and Finley is a whole lot of hyper. They lack a pass receiving back as well. I think Conv ends up catching 60 balls. He is simply explosive, the Packers don’t have anyone else like him.

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Steve Smith STL- A full year of recovery from his microfracture surgery, nobody thinks Quick is ready yet but he'll still get plugged in and opposing teams will probably treat him as the #1 WR. Smith should be the best route runner, posession guy on the team and Bradford seems to lock on to reliable WR's (Amendola, Clayton, Lloyd, etc). He was a top 15-20 ppr guy in 2009 before Eli was the Eli we saw emerge last year (this coming from a Giants fan). He had 107/1220/7 that year. Obviously he won't come close to that but I could see him having a nice year (Im not a projections guy so I woun't speculate on numbers). Could be had a WR5/6 maybe 7 price and could wind up as a WR3/4.

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Big ben @ qb - Haley has a good track record with qbs from a fantasy perspective. Wallace is wanting to get paid so expect big things from him and their younger wr's are wanting to step up, add in the fact their running game should be worse this year without or with a lesser Mendenhall and a better oline and I expect very good things out of Ben.

Sounds wierd to call him a sleeper but he usually isnt a top 5 guy and sometimes outside the top 10.

I see him having a very strong year this year.

Toby Gerhardt @ rb - ADP is a stud but he isnt going to be himself this year (maybe never agin) and I wouldnt be surprised if he started on the pup. He is the Vikings franchise and they arent going to take a chance of screwing up the rest of his career.

I had Gerhardt last year down the stretch and he was a stud. He was his stretch of games after ADP went down (NON PPR)

11,13,16,17,10 and then 6 (and even the last games poor outing he still avg. 4.5 yards a rush)

I think Minnesota is going to be VERY BAD this year but Toby might be a good player to have, especially early on.

Santana Moss, Brandon Lloyd and Donnie Avery - Moss has the best qb and weapons around him he has ever had and one what is the one thing Santana Moss has always been able to do?......go deep and whats the thing RGIII was great at in college....going deep. I think moss will be the benefit of alot of single coverages and could be in for a GREAT year. I think 1200-1400 yards is attainable with 6-8 td's. For those of you who are in bonus points for longer td's could be an absolute steal.

loyd isnt as big of a sleeper but he has everything going for him. Reunited with McDaniels, check- Best qb in the leage- check, great supporting cast- check and out to get a fat paycheck on his next contract (I believe)- check. I saw Lloyd alot last year as a Rams fan and the elite talent is there and McDaniels knows how to get it out of him. I am expecting top 10 #'s out of him.

Donnie Avery is a little bit of a loose call but he is healthy (supposively) and has alot to proove. He is listed as the started as of now and should be on a team that is playing from behind alot. he has deep speed and is by far the deep threat on offense. If Avery is healthy i would like to see him crack the top 25 or 30 with upside again for his career. Luck is going to be a great qb and it owuld be nice to get his go to guy early in his career.

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Steve Smith STL- A full year of recovery from his microfracture surgery, nobody thinks Quick is ready yet but he'll still get plugged in and opposing teams will probably treat him as the #1 WR. Smith should be the best route runner, posession guy on the team and Bradford seems to lock on to reliable WR's (Amendola, Clayton, Lloyd, etc). He was a top 15-20 ppr guy in 2009 before Eli was the Eli we saw emerge last year (this coming from a Giants fan). He had 107/1220/7 that year. Obviously he won't come close to that but I could see him having a nice year (Im not a projections guy so I woun't speculate on numbers). Could be had a WR5/6 maybe 7 price and could wind up as a WR3/4.

If Smith is healthy (big if) he's the best receiver on that squad by far.
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I think Randall Cobbis going to continue to ascend. Jones isnt improving, Driver is on his farewell tour, and Finley is a whole lot of hyper. They lack a pass receiving back as well. I think Conv ends up catching 60 balls. He is simply explosive, the Packers don’t have anyone else like him.

I agree 100%. I think that he nears 1000 yards this year. With the Packers base offense using three WR sets, and my feeling that he establishes the WR3 job as his instead of the rotation with Jones and Driver, I don't think it's far fetched that the Packers have three WR that produce 1000 yards. I love him long term. Jennings has a year remaining on his contract, and Nelson has one elite year under his belt. One way or another, I think Cobb will end up as the WR1 or 2 in a year or so.
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I think Randall Cobbis going to continue to ascend. Jones isnt improving, Driver is on his farewell tour, and Finley is a whole lot of hyper. They lack a pass receiving back as well. I think Conv ends up catching 60 balls. He is simply explosive, the Packers don’t have anyone else like him.

I agree 100%. I think that he nears 1000 yards this year. With the Packers base offense using three WR sets, and my feeling that he establishes the WR3 job as his instead of the rotation with Jones and Driver, I don't think it's far fetched that the Packers have three WR that produce 1000 yards. I love him long term. Jennings has a year remaining on his contract, and Nelson has one elite year under his belt. One way or another, I think Cobb will end up as the WR1 or 2 in a year or so.
I'm not so sure that Jennings moves on or Jordy regresses. And I still like Cobb. He's more talented than Jordy, but is a completely different player. He reminds me of Victor Cruz/Wes Welker.
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Tony Moeaki

People forget how good this guy was a rookie. Healthy now, he will way outproduce his ADP.

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Tony Moeaki

People forget how good this guy was a rookie. Healthy now, he will way outproduce his ADP.

he's healthy now, but he's been injured off and on since he was drafted. i dont think people are sleeping on him, i think they're just concerned he cannot stay healthy.
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Jason Hill. If he makes the team and can get 3 targets per game, he could take the top off of defenses and stretch the field more for the team.

Three targets per game isn't what makes a sleeper.
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Darius Heyward-Bey - Palmer locked onto him in the second half of 2011. I understand Moore's upside but DHB is seriously undervalued right now. He was targeted 58 times in the last six games of 2011.

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Tony Moeaki

People forget how good this guy was a rookie. Healthy now, he will way outproduce his ADP.

he's healthy now, but he's been injured off and on since he was drafted. i dont think people are sleeping on him, i think they're just concerned he cannot stay healthy.
That and the fact that KC added K. Boss. Couple that with the implied run heavy alignment (Charles / Hillis)...there are better choices at sleeper TE this year... IMO....
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Darius Heyward-Bey - Palmer locked onto him in the second half of 2011. I understand Moore's upside but DHB is seriously undervalued right now. He was targeted 58 times in the last six games of 2011.

it's not as good as it looks at first glance when you look at the games.
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BJGE can easily replicate what Ced Benson did in 2009-2010. One of the few RB's to approach 300 carries in an ascending offense. He doesn't fumble has a nose for the end zone and can catch better than most know since NE rarely used this capability. With an ADP of RB36 at Mock Draft Central, I feel he will easily represent major value. Bernard Scott sucks.

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I feel like I'm way higher on Kyle Rudolph than others. Everything I read is that he's going to be a key part of the offense. Maybe folks are spooked by the Carlson signing, but I foresee lots of 2 TE sets and a breakout second year for Rudolph.

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Some of the players I like in PPR this season that can be had at a good value (redraft) IMO...

Brandon LaFell

Jacquizz Rodgers

Jacob Tamme

Reggie Wayne

James Starks

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Andre Holmes WR Dallas

Laurent Robinson is gone. Somebody has got to pick up the slack. The Cowboys didn't draft a WR with their early draft picks and Danny Coale (who may work out down the line as a slot receiver) broke a bone in his foot which will set back his shot at the 3rd WR position in the short term. And I really can't take Kevin Ogletree seriously as finally having a breakout year.

Holmes was the first name out of Jerry Jones’ mouth at the scouting combine in February when the Cowboys’ owner/general manager discussed the possibility of losing Laurent Robinson in free agency. http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/cowboys/post/_/id/4692861/lets-see-why-theres-buzz-about-andre-holmes

Maybe the Cowboys take another underachieving veteran like Robinson. But maybe they don't and the answer is on their bench. They have had good luck with off the radar players from smaller schools (Romo, Miles Austin). Is Holmes in that category? Who knows, but he was not rostered (until I grabbed him) in any dynasty league I am in that has open waivers, so, I think he is worth taking a flyer on. I think that during training camp we should have a pretty good idea of where he stands.

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SHONN GREENE - Just don't understand the hate this guy seems get.

He's avg ypc career is over 4.0

Contract year + Tony S+ Slimmed down + No LT = decent shot at good #'s

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QB: Alex Smith. I understand that he looked terrible for six years. Though I never heard the guy complain or make excuses about all the coaching/coordinator/offensive scheme changes he went through. And I loved how he played in the playoffs. I don't see him as a game manager like everyone else does. I see him as a player who has finally had a bit of success and a bit of confidence and is now ready to take the next step. You can draft him as your 3rd QB and I seriously think he has top 12 potential.

RB: CJ Spiller. I just don't understand how a dynamic 24 year old running back could be ranked outside the top 30 in redraft. I think he absolutely goes off this year and finishes as a RB1.

WR: Jeremy Maclin & Mario Manningham. Everything was setting up nicely for Maclin to jump into the elite tier before he got that illness. Despite that, he still had a decent year. As an Eagles fan, I'm hoping he gets back on track this year. I think Manningham is getting overlooked a bit too. Before taking a back seat to Cruz last year, Manningham showed he has the talent to play at a high level in this league. He's getting drafted as a WR4 and I think he could end up around top 25 if he plays up to his ability.

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Loyd isnt as big of a sleeper but he has everything going for him. Reunited with McDaniels, check- Best qb in the leage- check, great supporting cast- check and out to get a fat paycheck on his next contract (I believe)- check. I saw Lloyd alot last year as a Rams fan and the elite talent is there and McDaniels knows how to get it out of him. I am expecting top 10 #'s out of him.

Top 10 #s? Sure, if Brady throws for 7000/60.The "great supporting cast" part will be Lloyd's downfall. NE has so many other weapons I don't see any way he comes close to 150 targets like he did. The only way Lloyd sniffs the Top 10 IMO is if all the other guys take a pretty decent sized decrease in their production. Welker, Gronk, Hernandez to go along with Gaffney, Branch (for now), Stallworth (for now), Ocho (for now), and Edelman. Lloyd has performed as well as he did because he was the only real threat in DEN and STL. I don't see Lloyd getting targeted 25-30% of the time like he was for the Broncos and Rams. Put another way, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez had 1 less reception than the entire Rams team did (292) last year.Lloyd also signed a three year deal, so he really isn't playing for another contract unless the Pats at some point release him, which seems unlikely given that he is only getting $4 million a year. He'd be 34 before he could play for another team if he plays out his Patriots contract.
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Loyd isnt as big of a sleeper but he has everything going for him. Reunited with McDaniels, check- Best qb in the leage- check, great supporting cast- check and out to get a fat paycheck on his next contract (I believe)- check. I saw Lloyd alot last year as a Rams fan and the elite talent is there and McDaniels knows how to get it out of him. I am expecting top 10 #'s out of him.

Top 10 #s? Sure, if Brady throws for 7000/60.The "great supporting cast" part will be Lloyd's downfall. NE has so many other weapons I don't see any way he comes close to 150 targets like he did. The only way Lloyd sniffs the Top 10 IMO is if all the other guys take a pretty decent sized decrease in their production. Welker, Gronk, Hernandez to go along with Gaffney, Branch (for now), Stallworth (for now), Ocho (for now), and Edelman. Lloyd has performed as well as he did because he was the only real threat in DEN and STL. I don't see Lloyd getting targeted 25-30% of the time like he was for the Broncos and Rams. Put another way, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez had 1 less reception than the entire Rams team did (292) last year.Lloyd also signed a three year deal, so he really isn't playing for another contract unless the Pats at some point release him, which seems unlikely given that he is only getting $4 million a year. He'd be 34 before he could play for another team if he plays out his Patriots contract.
If Lloyd can get open deep and on the outside, Brady will throw him as many passes as he can handle. Lloyd will eat into Gronk, Welker and Hernandez's targets, not the other way around. Of course its a 2 way street, but the point remains.
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I feel like I'm way higher on Kyle Rudolph than others. Everything I read is that he's going to be a key part of the offense. Maybe folks are spooked by the Carlson signing, but I foresee lots of 2 TE sets and a breakout second year for Rudolph.

Agreed. Just from following Ponder and Rudolph on twitter, it seems like they are very good friends off the field. I think some of that chemistry will translate to on the field production.
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Loyd isnt as big of a sleeper but he has everything going for him. Reunited with McDaniels, check- Best qb in the leage- check, great supporting cast- check and out to get a fat paycheck on his next contract (I believe)- check. I saw Lloyd alot last year as a Rams fan and the elite talent is there and McDaniels knows how to get it out of him. I am expecting top 10 #'s out of him.

Top 10 #s? Sure, if Brady throws for 7000/60.The "great supporting cast" part will be Lloyd's downfall. NE has so many other weapons I don't see any way he comes close to 150 targets like he did. The only way Lloyd sniffs the Top 10 IMO is if all the other guys take a pretty decent sized decrease in their production. Welker, Gronk, Hernandez to go along with Gaffney, Branch (for now), Stallworth (for now), Ocho (for now), and Edelman. Lloyd has performed as well as he did because he was the only real threat in DEN and STL. I don't see Lloyd getting targeted 25-30% of the time like he was for the Broncos and Rams. Put another way, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez had 1 less reception than the entire Rams team did (292) last year.Lloyd also signed a three year deal, so he really isn't playing for another contract unless the Pats at some point release him, which seems unlikely given that he is only getting $4 million a year. He'd be 34 before he could play for another team if he plays out his Patriots contract.
If Lloyd can get open deep and on the outside, Brady will throw him as many passes as he can handle. Lloyd will eat into Gronk, Welker and Hernandez's targets, not the other way around. Of course its a 2 way street, but the point remains.
I agree with this. Brady loves that deep ball, if Lloyd can get separation Brady will give him the ball
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Andre Holmes WR Dallas

Laurent Robinson is gone. Somebody has got to pick up the slack. The Cowboys didn't draft a WR with their early draft picks and Danny Coale (who may work out down the line as a slot receiver) broke a bone in his foot which will set back his shot at the 3rd WR position in the short term. And I really can't take Kevin Ogletree seriously as finally having a breakout year.

Holmes was the first name out of Jerry Jones’ mouth at the scouting combine in February when the Cowboys’ owner/general manager discussed the possibility of losing Laurent Robinson in free agency. http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/cowboys/post/_/id/4692861/lets-see-why-theres-buzz-about-andre-holmes

Maybe the Cowboys take another underachieving veteran like Robinson. But maybe they don't and the answer is on their bench. They have had good luck with off the radar players from smaller schools (Romo, Miles Austin). Is Holmes in that category? Who knows, but he was not rostered (until I grabbed him) in any dynasty league I am in that has open waivers, so, I think he is worth taking a flyer on. I think that during training camp we should have a pretty good idea of where he stands.

I took a flyer on Holmes. Everything I read about him seems to be positive and with Coale getting hurt there's not much (Ogletree) standing in front of him.
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Big ben @ qb - Haley has a good track record with qbs from a fantasy perspective. Wallace is wanting to get paid so expect big things from him and their younger wr's are wanting to step up, add in the fact their running game should be worse this year without or with a lesser Mendenhall and a better oline and I expect very good things out of Ben.

Antonio Brown - for all of the above reasons plus the retirement of Hines Ward
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Loyd isnt as big of a sleeper but he has everything going for him. Reunited with McDaniels, check- Best qb in the leage- check, great supporting cast- check and out to get a fat paycheck on his next contract (I believe)- check. I saw Lloyd alot last year as a Rams fan and the elite talent is there and McDaniels knows how to get it out of him. I am expecting top 10 #'s out of him.

Top 10 #s? Sure, if Brady throws for 7000/60.The "great supporting cast" part will be Lloyd's downfall. NE has so many other weapons I don't see any way he comes close to 150 targets like he did. The only way Lloyd sniffs the Top 10 IMO is if all the other guys take a pretty decent sized decrease in their production. Welker, Gronk, Hernandez to go along with Gaffney, Branch (for now), Stallworth (for now), Ocho (for now), and Edelman. Lloyd has performed as well as he did because he was the only real threat in DEN and STL. I don't see Lloyd getting targeted 25-30% of the time like he was for the Broncos and Rams. Put another way, Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez had 1 less reception than the entire Rams team did (292) last year.Lloyd also signed a three year deal, so he really isn't playing for another contract unless the Pats at some point release him, which seems unlikely given that he is only getting $4 million a year. He'd be 34 before he could play for another team if he plays out his Patriots contract.
Sorry about the incorrect info on the contract. I thought it was a 2 year deal. I guess i just dont believe Gronk will put up the best te numbers of all time again and Welker wont have 100 catches and hernandez wont do what he did. Lets face it, NE is gonna throw the ball and throw the ball and throw the ball. They have the ability to have 2 top ten te's and 2 top 15 wr's/ Their offense is that potent. Lloyd is a stud and if he keeps his head on straight and stays healthy he will approach big numbers this year.
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Dynasty QB: Ponder. Was drafted higher than most thought he should have been. Meh rookie season. But with Rudolph, Catlson, Harvin, Simpson, the rookie WR's and ADP they look to be putting the pieces around him.

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QB: Alex Smith. I understand that he looked terrible for six years. Though I never heard the guy complain or make excuses about all the coaching/coordinator/offensive scheme changes he went through. And I loved how he played in the playoffs. I don't see him as a game manager like everyone else does. I see him as a player who has finally had a bit of success and a bit of confidence and is now ready to take the next step. You can draft him as your 3rd QB and I seriously think he has top 12 potential.

RB: CJ Spiller. I just don't understand how a dynamic 24 year old running back could be ranked outside the top 30 in redraft. I think he absolutely goes off this year and finishes as a RB1.

WR: Jeremy Maclin & Mario Manningham. Everything was setting up nicely for Maclin to jump into the elite tier before he got that illness. Despite that, he still had a decent year. As an Eagles fan, I'm hoping he gets back on track this year. I think Manningham is getting overlooked a bit too. Before taking a back seat to Cruz last year, Manningham showed he has the talent to play at a high level in this league. He's getting drafted as a WR4 and I think he could end up around top 25 if he plays up to his ability.

Because FJax is a better RB

Also, you might be a 49er homer, but there's no way Smith finishes as a QB1 or Manningham as WR2.

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PPR:

Jay Cutler (much more talented weapons. Bennett at WR3 where he belongs & Hester as a special package player)

Quizz Rodgers (I even think Turner's complete demise -- as some have openly projected -- is overstated. I still could see 800+ total yards by Quizz)

San Diego WR or TE not named Meachem.

Greg Olsen -- Panther TE's combined for 80+ catches and near 1000 yards last year. No splitting with Shockey this year. I think he's a shoe-in to easily surpass his career highs in catches/yards

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I like Jake Locker in a dynasty format.

I think they are going to pass a lot more and I like the passing group of Britt, Cook, Wright & Washington.

He has very good skills - reminds me of a poor man's Rodgers.

Donald Brown

As above - he will get the ball on default with a rookie QB.

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RB: Willis McGahee ... can't believe I just said that, but I think he'll have another quietly productive year and should either cost next to nothing in dynasty or be available for a redraft team that goes WR heavy.

WR: Malcom Floyd, if he stays healthy, should have a great season. He's always productive when healthy and doesn't cost much.

TE: Tony Moeaki has the talent to be top 10 if healthy, KC has needed a TE presence since Gonzalez left.

Def: My sleeper D is KC. Healthy Eric Berry and Poe at NT, solid corners should have a higher TO differential.

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Sometimes we forget how much lack of OTA's and injuries held some players back.

Shane Vereen RB

Rob Housler TE

David Ausberry TE (Kid played WR at USC and Boss is gone in OAK. And he added 20 lbs of muscle without losing hardly any speed)

Reuban Randle WR

Mike Goodson RB (I just don't trust DMAC to play all 16 games. More like 10 to 12 tops) I think Goodson is the RB to own behind DMC

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