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WR Josh Gordon, KC (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Matt Waldman
- Start date
N Zone
Footballguy
I agree with you there, I'm looking for Lockett, if not him Mike Williams and if not him it's between DJ Moore and Josh Gordon and might just go with Gordon if that's the case.WR3 in the mid-6th with a huge run of WEs before him? I don’t mind the gamble.
I got Lockett one pick before & like that way more, and Mike Williams went 2 picks after & I like him better too.
But overall not a terrible pick.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I have a feeling Gordon will be a better play after 2-3 games.
He might be a good buy-low candidate until he gets his legs under him.
Once he’s had time to develop chemistry with the team/Brady again, he’s likely to be a solid weekly play.
Unless he wakes up one of these weeks & decides he doesn’t want to be.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
LawFitz
Footballguy
This is a fantastic post. Gloss over it and make excuses and fun all you want, folks, but as a great man recently said, men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie.
Calibrate the targets more evenly and the YPRR even ends up much closer to 3rd than 14th. I don't see a 1st half sexplosion here, but come later in the season stretch when games need to be won and chemistry sets, look out for a nasty PPG run, in classic Bellychicken style. Assuming Josh keeps his head straight throughout, of course. That is the eternal caveat here. Draft accordingly.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Numbers don’t lie but generally you can cherry pick stats to promulgate whatever narrative you want out there.
Thats more of a general comment and not necessarily related to the stats you quoted - but they hardly tell the whole story.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
If we assume:
1. Gordon plays 16 games
2. Gordon keeps DT and Harry on the bench
3. Opponents have to respect a strong running game
4. Edelman displays his historic TD rate
5. 45/600/4 from the tight end position
6. Brady bounces back from 2018
What do we project Gordon's numbers to be?
Obviously assumptions 1 and 6 are the points that critics would attack. But for the purposes of this exercise, what is the ceiling?
1. Gordon plays 16 games
2. Gordon keeps DT and Harry on the bench
3. Opponents have to respect a strong running game
4. Edelman displays his historic TD rate
5. 45/600/4 from the tight end position
6. Brady bounces back from 2018
What do we project Gordon's numbers to be?
Obviously assumptions 1 and 6 are the points that critics would attack. But for the purposes of this exercise, what is the ceiling?
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
unless gordon is hurt or smoking rocks, this one is as close to an absolute as is possible
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I’ve posted my feelings on Meyers in so many threads but here are the highlights.
Generally speaking, the more players play in the preseason in NE, the less valued they are by the team. Meyers but up great numbers but only with Hoyer and Stidham.
He put up those numbers playing with and against back ups, with vanilla play calls on offense and defense. He didn’t do much when he played with Brady and Brady didn’t really look his way that often. He did two things that would not help his cause. He stopped running on a route and Brady put the ball in the air (a potential interception in the making) and he had a dumb holding call away from the play that negated a 30 yard rushing play.
He’s clearly behind Edelman and Gordon. He likely will be behind Thomas, Harry, and Dorsett. Dorsett played 10 minutes with Brady last week and had 5 receptions.
Brady throws to receivers he trusts I don’t think Meyers is in that circle of trust yet, and his comments after the game the other night essentially echoes that.
Meyers will be an understudy to Edelman much like Edelman was an understudy to Welker. Edelman ended up with something like 37-369-1 his first year.
I’ve also posted that fantasy rookie receivers in NE have essentially been fantasy irrelevant in the BB/TB era. That applies for Harry too.
And I didn’t even mention the resurgence in the running game and the defense. Add everything together and I would be very surprised if Meyers does much this year.
pantherclub
Footballguy
But in regards to this is pretty telling and there really is no grey area to it. Cut and dry.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, what Cooks put up a couple of years ago. The issue with Gordon will be how many targets he sees. In games where Gronk didn’t play (25 games), Edelman has averaged almost 12 targets a game. White averaged 8 targets a game.SeniorVBDStudent said:
Not included in your post is how strong the defense appears to be this year. There’s a chance NE runs a ton and keeps to the move the sticks passing attack, conservative style football. I am sure they will then open things up to pick their spots for chunk yardage plays, but that doesn’t real equate to tons of targets for Gordon.
IMO, Gordon helps the rest of the offense more than the offense helps Gordon. He will draw attention and should open up running lanes and underneath routes.
pantherclub
Footballguy
But the overall point is the 50 catches. There is enough data now to draw a reasonable conclusion.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Is 444 pages the all-time record for longest player thread? Has to be, right?
Mods or @Joe Bryant - any way to look that up easily? Just curious...
Two more weeks! Can’t wait.
Mods or @Joe Bryant - any way to look that up easily? Just curious...
Two more weeks! Can’t wait.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
He had 50 catches his first season and 87 his second. The "over 50 catches" part was slightly misleading.
He barely played in the other seasons until last year and caught 40 passes in 11 games for the Patriots.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Do you have no appreciation for Gordon getting moderate targets after having been with the team a few games, and no TC?
pghrob
Hail to the Chief
Don't mess with my fantasy here, please. I have visions of a clean and sober and happy and well Josh Gordon playing catch with a still hungry Tom Brady adding to his ridiculous legacy and racking up crazy statistics, eclipsing the Brady/Moss season of lore. It's my fantasy. Let it be. Thank you very much.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, the answer lies somewhere between the number of targets he got last year and the insane amount of targets he got in Cleveland in 2013. I would guess that number would be closer to his 2018 target rate than his 2013 target rate based on the Browns roster and style of play and the Patriots roster and style of play.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Funny. No one is talking about what great shape Tom Brady is in. He posted video of him and Gordon working out. Him trying to run probably has nothing to do with that, ammi rite?
The Patriots have revamped their receiving corps based on what they saw Gordon be able to do last year. So the logical conclusion is Josh Gordon isn't going to be a centerpiece of the offense this year..... (facetious).
In seriousness, this should be JGs best year in the league. I don't know if it shows up statistically, but I think it might. Really depends on the rest of the Pats receiving corps and JGs health.
The Patriots have revamped their receiving corps based on what they saw Gordon be able to do last year. So the logical conclusion is Josh Gordon isn't going to be a centerpiece of the offense this year..... (facetious).
In seriousness, this should be JGs best year in the league. I don't know if it shows up statistically, but I think it might. Really depends on the rest of the Pats receiving corps and JGs health.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
The targets he got in Cleveland are only insane if you don't believe he's a top tier wide receiver. 160-170 is right around AB, DeAndre, Odell ect.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Those particular stats, yes.pantherclub said:
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't believe Gordon is the same player he was in 2013, but that is mostly irrelevant.
The Browns threw the ball 681 times that year. They ranked bottom 5 in rushing attempts. They were constantly behind with a bottom 10 defense and bottom 5 offense. Willis McGahee led the team in rushing with 377 yards. Gordon was one of two players with more than 2 total TD on the team. He was one of two players over 500 receiving yards. Gordon WAS the offense, and they just forced the ball to him as they just aired it out for four quarters to try to stay in games.
Does that REMOTELY sound like the Patriots situation?
cloppbeast
Footballguy
That's one way to a buttload of targets, but not the only way. Deandre Hopkins gets a ton in a much different situation.
I want to point out I don't expect Gordon to get 160 targets. Probably more like Cooks in 2017. I dont know though. Trying to predict what the Patriots will do is not always straight forward.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I posted that to me Gordon's upside was that of Cooks, but even that seems like a poor comparison as that was the season NE played without Edelman. I think another reason for concern target wise for Gordon is he typically runs deeper and longer time required to develop routes. NE doesn't run a lot of those and instead tries to have Brady unload the ball in 2 seconds to avoid getting hit. That's why guys like Edelman and White get a ton of targets.
So sure, we can concoct some crazy upside scenarios for Gordon. Moss was 30 his monster year in NE. Gordon is 28. There is a greater than 0 chance that Gordon has a season for the ages. But I wouldn't put the chances of that as being much better than winning the lottery.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
The difference between Cooks and Gordon is the Red Zone. TDs count. Especially sans Gronk.
ETA Cooks is 5'10". Gordon is 6'4". They both run approximately the same speed. And Gordon was most successful on slants and in routes, where he could effectively box out smaller corners.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE scored 47 TD on offense last year and Gronk had 3 of them, The RB corps had 23 of them. In the post season, NE scored 11 times and the RB's accounted for 9 of them. The RB's scored 55% of their offensive TD's between the two. Brady frequently audibled at the goal line to either running plays or dump offs to White. Maybe that will change this year, but NE still managed to get the ball into the end zone pretty well.
It’s 2nd.
Assuming the three Christine Michael threadS are counted as a single thread, given that the mods asked for the restarts because they were getting too long for the software at the time.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
He also is a much better possession receiver than Cooks, who was something of a one trick pony. Consider also, without Gronk, Gordon is the best option down field against man-to-man. That back shoulder is deadly. From what I saw last year, Brady was not reluctant throwing it up where only Gordon could get it.
Warhogs
Footballguy
Anyone know what the longest time is between 1000 yard receiving seasons? I am guessing if Gordon goes over 1000 yards this year he may hold that record as he hasn't had 1000 yards since 2013. I'm not saying it won't happen but I would say history says it's not very probable.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Last year their top receivers were Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. This year, their top receivers to start the season are Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. Thomas and Harry are unknowns and one of them will probably end up taking snaps from Dorsett. Not sure their receivers are all that different.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
If we're forced to assume a full 16 game season (which we do with just about any projection for any other player), I'm not sure how he doesn't hit 1,000 yards.
Even a somewhat conservative projection of 4k passing yards from Brady....how would you divide that up without Gordon getting to 1k yards (again, if assuming a full 16 games)?
Even a somewhat conservative projection of 4k passing yards from Brady....how would you divide that up without Gordon getting to 1k yards (again, if assuming a full 16 games)?
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
That seems reasonable assuming a 16 game season (although that certainly seems far from a given that he plays in 16 games). However, in the years TB has been QB, the only 1,000 yard seasons by NE receivers for an outside receiver have been Cooks (1082 in 2017 when Edelman missed the entire season), Moss (1254 in 2009), and Moss again (1493 in 2007).
There will be a lot of banter and debate, but IMO, if Edelman played all of 2017 then Cooks probably doesn't hit 1,000 yards. If that were the case, then we would be looking at two seasons of Moss and the last one being 10 years ago. Sure, people will say Gordon may be on Moss's level . . .but I am not sure a 42 year old Brady is on a 32 year old Brady level.
Dismattle
Footballguy
In contrast to TE where TB in 2011 threw 1327 yd's w/ 17 TD's (I'm just saying you appear to gloss over some potential yardage/point's available)
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Not glossing over anything. How does 2011 numbers for a TE have anything to do with an outside receiver in 2011?
matttyl
Footballguy
Targets? That year Brady had 611 pass attempts and TEs got 237 of them. They combined for 169 of Brady's 402 completions. If we're to spread out Brady's ~380 attempts this season, I'm not giving 230+ of them to that TE group, especially when two of them will start the season not playing.
Also of note, their outside WR that year (Branch) had over 50 receptions.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Compared to last year . . .
Players on the way out include Gronk, Hogan, Patterson, Barner, Hollister, Hill, and Allen. They combined for 1870 YFS and 10 total TD.
Players on the way in (likely) included Harry, Thomas, Meyers, Wason, LaCosse, Bolden, and Harris.
The Patriots offense as a whole accounted for:
6295 yards, 47 TD in 2018. (4258/29 and 2037/18)
6307 yards, 48 TD in 2017. (4418/32 and 1889/16)
6180 yards, 51 TD in 2016. (4308/32 and 1972/19)
Those are the numbers. People can allocate whatever production however they want.
Players on the way out include Gronk, Hogan, Patterson, Barner, Hollister, Hill, and Allen. They combined for 1870 YFS and 10 total TD.
Players on the way in (likely) included Harry, Thomas, Meyers, Wason, LaCosse, Bolden, and Harris.
The Patriots offense as a whole accounted for:
6295 yards, 47 TD in 2018. (4258/29 and 2037/18)
6307 yards, 48 TD in 2017. (4418/32 and 1889/16)
6180 yards, 51 TD in 2016. (4308/32 and 1972/19)
Those are the numbers. People can allocate whatever production however they want.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Every year and every personnel group is different . . . especially in NE. I just posted the numbers. Feel free to project production however you want. Since for some reason 2011 got brought up, the RBs as a grouping had 56 targets that year. Last year they had 163. This training camp, they have made a concerted effort to get more RB's involved as receivers, so I would project that number to go up.
matttyl
Footballguy
Any way you allocate all of that in favor of Gordon's now (hopefully) 16 game season would need to be on top of his 40/720/3 line from last year.
Also, amazing that their offense has been that consistent the last 3 years. That's like clockwork!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Anyone here think Gordon is a little overrated?
i mean, don’t get me wrong - physical freak of nature. Fast, long, can go up & fight for a contested ball.
But is he a crisp route runner or a 3-flies up player?
I remember watching him last year and seeing as many “wow!” plays as “smh, what’s he doing out there?!” plays.
i have no doubt the Pats are going to take some shots downfield, and Gordon is very likely to be the recipient.
I’m just not sure how that will translate to him as a fantasy starter.
Bear in mind, I still think he’s a terrific WR3, which is where most folks drafted him. As a WR2 I think he’s a little dicier.
———————————
If (IF) he actually plays a full season, what confidence level do you have in your projections for him?
1-10
And similarly, how confident are you in his game-to-game consistency?
1-10
i mean, don’t get me wrong - physical freak of nature. Fast, long, can go up & fight for a contested ball.
But is he a crisp route runner or a 3-flies up player?
I remember watching him last year and seeing as many “wow!” plays as “smh, what’s he doing out there?!” plays.
i have no doubt the Pats are going to take some shots downfield, and Gordon is very likely to be the recipient.
I’m just not sure how that will translate to him as a fantasy starter.
Bear in mind, I still think he’s a terrific WR3, which is where most folks drafted him. As a WR2 I think he’s a little dicier.
———————————
If (IF) he actually plays a full season, what confidence level do you have in your projections for him?
1-10
And similarly, how confident are you in his game-to-game consistency?
1-10
Dismattle
Footballguy
Some folks seem to believe TB12 throws to the best player in the best situation Your points on utilizing RB's seem to indicate even better odd's for Gordon (Defense's may be forced to account restricting limits on other coverage) Now if you preface w/ something like: "When Gordon is covered by the opposing defenses "shutdown corner" I don't expect much" I can say you might be wrong but I would admit it makes some sense considering other viable option(s)
Dismattle
Footballguy
Guess you could argue both Gronk and Moss dispel that notion To which I say maybe Gordon will too
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The biggest reason I don't see Gordon getting a ton of targets is due to his routes taking way longer to develop and that exposes Brady to a lot more hits. Between their running game and their defense, NE doesn't need to be taking a lot of shots downfield. As I mentioned several times, I think Gordon opens up the running game and the underneath routes more than the running game and underneath routes open things up for Gordon. Maybe I will be wrong on that one, but I don't see Gordon being a target monster.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d say TB12 throws to the open receiver in any situation.
I don’t often see him force it into coverage - when he does he has to have extreme trust in that receiver (Gronk, often into double coverage).
i do recall Brady throwing a couple deep lobs to Gordon - Gordon went up & got them, but they weren’t great throws & they were pretty risky 50-50 balls.
It'll be interesting to see how much of that they’re willing to do this year. That’s not usually the high % style of passing game I’m used to out of the patriots.
