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WR Josh Gordon, KC


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28 minutes ago, Otis said:

I don’t know how you cover Metcalf, Gordon, and the TE. 

Well, Dissley is out for the year, so covering Seattle’s TE is much easier than it was at least, but yeah - that’s a lot of size to compete with.

i wasn’t very impressed with how Gordon looked in NE, tbh. He looked a bit slower. And they didn’t seem to trust him with a big route tree. I’d have to take a look at that cool site someone once posted with all the routes by every WR game to game. 

It’ll be interesting to see if 

1. He stays in football or if another shoe drops

2. Seattle finds him to be useful

3. Seattle can make him productive in their system. 
 

#1 seems like the biggest concern - he fell out of favor with the Pats in a hurry. I thought once AB was gone we’d finally see JG hitting whatever potential he had. Instead of popping he fizzled. Hardly targeted, in favor of guys like Dorsett? As others have mentioned. something seems odd about that.

The pats might take more chances on red-flag type players than most and sometimes they miss,...but it seems rare that they let elite talent get away. So why cut him, especially when they seem to need WRs, especially big bodied RZ targets?  Edelman is getting banged up seemingly every week, and behind him they have Dorsett & Harry?  I find it difficult to believe a healthy JG isn’t better, faster, stronger than those two. 

some kind of shoe is gonna drop. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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Gordon was never a really good fit for the Patriots passing attack, and many of us opined about it. Brady wants to get rid of the ball quick, and Gordon's main function was to stretch the field as a decoy. It just never added up to a meaningful connection given that Gordon, to the naked eye, has surely lost a step. (Maybe two.)

I hope this isn't about addiction or attitude, because this next year or two is really his last chance to cement a legacy. 

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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Gordon was never a really good fit for the Patriots passing attack, and many of us opined about it. Brady wants to get rid of the ball quick, and Gordon's main function was to stretch the field as a decoy. It just never added up to a meaningful connection given that Gordon, to the naked eye, has surely lost a step. (Maybe two.)

which is a little odd since Brady had no problem with a deep threat guy like Moss. 

but then, Cooks didn’t work out as a Patriot so maybe it’s a matter of poor OL play or old guy noodle-arm or both. :shrug:

3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I hope this isn't about addiction or attitude, because this next year or two is really his last chance to cement a legacy. 

Sad to say, at this point his legacy is kind of cemented. This is his last chance to change people’s perception of that legacy. 

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

which is a little odd since Brady had no problem with a deep threat guy like Moss. 

but then, Cooks didn’t work out as a Patriot so maybe it’s a matter of poor OL play or old guy noodle-arm or both. :shrug:

I think it's a change in philosophy about how quickly they want the ball out to keep him upright mixed with the OL and that Moss is a HoF receiver whose specialty was deep balls and tracking them.

So it's a little of everything, I think, but it was clear that Brady wanted to get rid of the ball before Gordon gained separation and steps on the DBs covering him. It never looked right. If Gordon doesn't give up on plays, he's got a much better chance in Seattle, where Wilson will extend plays at a much greater rate than Brady did. 

That said, the other shoe dropping is always looming, and it looks like SEA is set at WR1 and WR2. But that's the uncertainty and risk/reward, one surmises. 

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

but it was clear that Brady wanted to get rid of the ball before Gordon gained separation and steps on the DBs covering him. It never looked right.

of course that could also be that Gordon wasn’t able to get separation from DBs covering him.

IIRC even at his peak he wasn’t great at that (other than a few busted coverage/JG streaking down there field type plays) - but his QBs were also willing to consistently throw up the 50-50 ball for JG to go up & get it. 

I recall that early on Brady tried a few of those to poor results, and honestly I don’t think the Pats are the gambling type of team to take those risks consistently, especially when you have a crisp route runner like Edelman who’s where he’s supposed to be on timing routes. 

Maybe Russell Wilson/Carroll are more willing to chuck it up & see what happens, but in NE Gordon seemed to lose those jump balls against smaller defenders. 

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10 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

of course that could also be that Gordon wasn’t able to get separation from DBs covering him.

IIRC even at his peak he wasn’t great at that (other than a few busted coverage/JG streaking down there field type plays) - but his QBs were also willing to consistently throw up the 50-50 ball for JG to go up & get it. 

I recall that early on Brady tried a few of those to poor results, and honestly I don’t think the Pats are the gambling type of team to take those risks consistently, especially when you have a crisp route runner like Edelman who’s where he’s supposed to be on timing routes. 

Maybe Russell Wilson/Carroll are more willing to chuck it up & see what happens, but in NE Gordon seemed to lose those jump balls against smaller defenders. 

Simply put, I agree with all of this but for the caveat that it might have been impossible to get separation given the amount of time he had and how DBs were playing off of him. That's about the only excuse to muster.  

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Bump Finley!

 

Seriously, I got Josh as a throw-in piece in '16 and have used him less than 5 times since then; partly because he was unavailable and partly because I had better options. This year, my top WRs have missed a lot of time (Adams, Hilton) - so ... if there is any chance Gordon can contribute, I'll continue to hold. We have nothing better available on the wire. I am not expecting much, but I won't rule out WR3 type weeks - in a pinch.

Plus, I sincerely like the guy.

Go Flash!

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On 11/1/2019 at 5:48 PM, SCT said:

Nobody thinks there has to be a shoe about to drop?  If he's healthy why would the Patriots release him?  Why would he be passed up by 27 teams who could have him for free?  Something stinks.  And again, he hasn't gone a year without failing a drug test since 10th grade.

I believe the answer to your question is because he sucks. 

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, he just doesn't look good. He doesn't run the right routes, has a low catch rate, high drop rate, isn't very fast right now.

In short, he's kind of dud. 

I’ve seen most of their games this year bc they are on national tv literally every week and he is just a zero out there now. No separation and when the ball comes to him it’s like he’s never seen a football before. 

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7 minutes ago, Capella said:

I’ve seen most of their games this year bc they are on national tv literally every week and he is just a zero out there now. No separation and when the ball comes to him it’s like he’s never seen a football before. 

Yeah. He's not helped by their quick strike offense, either. He doesn't have time to unlimber and get open. 

Edited by rockaction
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Josh Gordon passed his Seahawks physical.

The physical was conducted Saturday, one day after Seattle claimed him off waivers from New England. It confirms that Gordon is indeed healthy while putting him on track to make his Seahawks debut next Monday night at San Francisco. Gordon will join a loaded Seahawks pass-catching corps already featuring slot receiver Tyler Lockett and electric rookie DK Metcalf. That's a pretty enticing arsenal for MVP candidate Russell Wilson, the current NFL leader in touchdown passes with 22.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Nov 4, 2019, 9:50 AM ET

 

 

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I'm a bit surprised there hasn't been more posting about him in Seattle.

He should start on the outside opposite Metcalf, with Lockett in the slot. Lockett has had insane efficiency, and Metcalf has outperformed expectations so far. I definitely think Gordon could have some value here.

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15 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I'm a bit surprised there hasn't been more posting about him in Seattle.

He should start on the outside opposite Metcalf, with Lockett in the slot. Lockett has had insane efficiency, and Metcalf has outperformed expectations so far. I definitely think Gordon could have some value here.

I think it's about tempering expectations.   If he's not taking snaps from Metcalf, then he's taking Jaron Brown/David Moore's spot.   That's 45 targets on the season between the two of them.   Will he get more than those guys?  Maybe, but not many.   Lockett's going to get his 10, Metcalf is going to get 6-7, the RB's get 5 or so, and that leaves a handful in this offense for everyone else.    If Gordon has a 3/40/1 game or two, that's a win.   

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On 11/2/2019 at 8:34 PM, Capella said:

Who is that one guy who posted about Gordon every 15 seconds? I went back 3 pages and saw nothing. Gordon gets dumped from the best team in the league, almost everybody passes on him and that guy goes into hiding. 

SoulFly

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1 hour ago, -fish- said:

I think it's about tempering expectations.   If he's not taking snaps from Metcalf, then he's taking Jaron Brown/David Moore's spot.   That's 45 targets on the season between the two of them.   Will he get more than those guys?  Maybe, but not many.   Lockett's going to get his 10, Metcalf is going to get 6-7, the RB's get 5 or so, and that leaves a handful in this offense for everyone else.    If Gordon has a 3/40/1 game or two, that's a win.   

Fair points, but it is possible, maybe likely, Gordon is better than Brown, Moore, and the other Seattle WR4+ players. So I don't necessarily think he will be limited to the number of targets they got.

Also:

  • Lockett is averaging 8 targets per game. I think it is more likely that average drops than increases going forward.
  • Metcalf is averaging 6 targets per game. I wouldn't be shocked if that average drops going forward... though I also wouldn't be surprised if it increases.
  • Seattle is averaging 32.5 pass attempts per game. I wouldn't be shocked if that increased going forward... the way the Seattle defense is playing, they could end up in a lot of high scoring games.
  • And if either Lockett or Metcalf were to get hurt...

Just saying that I can see a scenario for Gordon to have value. Not saying he will be a league winner, was just surprised that there hadn't been more posting about him.

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11 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Fair points, but it is possible, maybe likely, Gordon is better than Brown, Moore, and the other Seattle WR4+ players. So I don't necessarily think he will be limited to the number of targets they got.

Also:

  • Lockett is averaging 8 targets per game. I think it is more likely that average drops than increases going forward.
  • Metcalf is averaging 6 targets per game. I wouldn't be shocked if that average drops going forward... though I also wouldn't be surprised if it increases.
  • Seattle is averaging 32.5 pass attempts per game. I wouldn't be shocked if that increased going forward... the way the Seattle defense is playing, they could end up in a lot of high scoring games.
  • And if either Lockett or Metcalf were to get hurt...

Just saying that I can see a scenario for Gordon to have value. Not saying he will be a league winner, was just surprised that there hadn't been more posting about him.

Seattle isn't going to change its game plan or play calling for Gordon.  Sure, if someone gets injured, Gordon has more value.   They do have a lot of high-scoring offenses on their schedule and their defense is shaky, but their offensive philosophy is to run more and shorten the game, not to pass more to get into shootouts.    In a game script where they get down early, there will be more targets and Gordon may benefit.  Otherwise, the distribution is probably not going to change much from what it's been. 

You also have 3 pretty tough pass defenses in 49ers, Vikings and Panthers coming up.   Rams are middle of the pack and the Eagles pass D has improved from the disaster they were at the beginning of the season.  Only real favorable game is the Cardinals, but their rush defense is weak too, so if Carson/Penney exploit it there still won't be more targets.

I may end up being completely wrong on this, but I just don't see Gordon making much of an impact at all.    

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Since his breakout year in 2013, Gordon has only played in 28 games and averaged 3.67 receptions, 59 yards, and 0.2 TD in those games. That's very similar to what he produced in his time in NE (3.5 / 59 / 0.23). It's usually quite difficult to pick up a playbook and build chemistry with a QB in-season. I would expect Gordon to be the 3rd receiving option in SEA after Lockett and Metcalf. As a basis for comparison, here's how the 3rd most targeted WR has fared since Wilson took over as QB:

2012 Doug Baldwin 29-366-3
2013 Jermaine Kearse 22-346-4
2014 Paul Richardson 29-271-1
2015 Jermaine Kearse 49-685-5
2016 Tyler Lockett 41-597-1
2017 Tyler Lockett 45-555-2
2018 David Moore 26-445-5

Based on his numbers in NE, Gordon would rank in the WR 45-50 range. IMO, he looked, bigger, slower, less explosive, and struggled to get much separation in NE this year. At this point, I would be surprised if Gordon made much of a dent fantasy wise moving on to SEA.

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3 minutes ago, trader jake said:

It ain't a thing anymore.  Sell for what you can and move on (after he puts up a decent game).

Just curious what people consider a decent game these days. Most weeks, 20 points won't crack the weekly Top 10 (but would usually be Top 15).

Gordon put up 20 points the first game of 2014  (PPR scoring). He's had one game of 20+ points since then.

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1 hour ago, Todem said:

This thread reminds me of the Trent Richardson thread...but a bit worse as this guy has done nothing....nothing since 2013.

I don't know why people keep saying he has done nothing since 2013. Gordon was a solid starter last season. Yeah, he wasn't the overall #1 WR he was in 2013, but saying he did nothing is just being silly. 

I don't think anyone, anyone rational anyway, was ever expecting Gordon to hit those 2013 numbers again, but he's been a solid option pretty much whenever he has played. Its entirely possible he finds his way into WR3 value, and from an NFL standpoint, its a no-risk, high reward move by Seattle. 

If I were hurting for a WR, I'd think he's worth a look off waivers. He's now part of the best passing game in the NFL, and one that is throwing more and more, since they have almost zero defense. I think 5-7 targets a week isn't unreasonable, especially with likely constant 1-on-1 coverage against 3rd CB's.

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50 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I don't know why people keep saying he has done nothing since 2013. Gordon was a solid starter last season. Yeah, he wasn't the overall #1 WR he was in 2013, but saying he did nothing is just being silly. 

I don't think anyone, anyone rational anyway, was ever expecting Gordon to hit those 2013 numbers again, but he's been a solid option pretty much whenever he has played. Its entirely possible he finds his way into WR3 value, and from an NFL standpoint, its a no-risk, high reward move by Seattle. 

If I were hurting for a WR, I'd think he's worth a look off waivers. He's now part of the best passing game in the NFL, and one that is throwing more and more, since they have almost zero defense. I think 5-7 targets a week isn't unreasonable, especially with likely constant 1-on-1 coverage against 3rd CB's.

Allow me to somewhat disagree. Here were his weekly rankings in PPR leagues last year . . .

50 - DNP - DNP - 80 - 29 - 51 - 25 - 51 - 5 - 25 - 36 - 21 - 22 - 85 - DNP - DNP

Essentially, if you owned him, you couldn't play him the first half of the season. Then he had a month where he was decent. And down the stretch and in fantasy playoffs you couldn't play him again. Was he totally worthless? No, But he had very limited utility.

Here were his weekly rankings this year . . .

29 - 83 - 30 - 49 - 34 - 88 - DNP - DNP - DNP

Most weeks in terms of WR fantasy scoring, the difference between being the #25 fantasy WR and the #40 WR in a given week is not all that much. It could be a point or two. Most weeks, it's a single reception. But the scoring difference to get into the Top 15 can be 10+ points and into the Top 5-10 can be 20+ points.

The point being, Gordon hasn't really even been hit or miss. He's been mostly misses. He didn't have many big weeks in NE to make him fantasy noteworthy or have real fantasy value. He essentially has been better served as a bye week filler or spot starter inserted in a lineup until a better, injured fantasy receiver gets back. Gordon no longer moves the needle in terms of fantasy scoring and for leagues with short rosters can be a wasted roster spot. He hasn't really been a fantasy asset for years. Gordon had ONE WEEK in the Top 20 in 2018 and 2019. Depending upon league size, there could be better weekly streaming options than trying to rely on Gordon.

Looking across all receivers that played in at least 8 games in 2018 and 2019 combined, Gordon ranks 50th in 0 PPR leagues. Given that he doesn't get a lot of receptions, he would rank lower in PPR leagues. I would be interested to see what people project him production wise for the rest of the season playing for the Seahawks.

 

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2 hours ago, travdogg said:

I don't know why people keep saying he has done nothing since 2013. Gordon was a solid starter last season.

Do people feel if they keep saying this it will suddenly become true? Or is it just a self-justification thing where folks have a complete inability to admit they made a poor choice hanging on to him for years? I simply don't get it.

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1 hour ago, DallasDMac said:

Do people feel if they keep saying this it will suddenly become true? Or is it just a self-justification thing where folks have a complete inability to admit they made a poor choice hanging on to him for years? I simply don't get it.

He's motivated this time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcWo8Y00bFk

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3 hours ago, -fish- said:

I think he'll see 5-7 snaps.

Is this schtick or what you really believe? I think he will see a lot of snaps. The Seahawks base set is 3 WRs. He is the 3rd WR, the 2nd outside WR, in those sets. I expect him to play more than 50% of the offensive snaps when healthy. Maybe not in his first game with the team, but after that.

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4 hours ago, travdogg said:

I don't know why people keep saying he has done nothing since 2013. Gordon was a solid starter last season. Yeah, he wasn't the overall #1 WR he was in 2013, but saying he did nothing is just being silly. 

I don't think anyone, anyone rational anyway, was ever expecting Gordon to hit those 2013 numbers again, but he's been a solid option pretty much whenever he has played. Its entirely possible he finds his way into WR3 value, and from an NFL standpoint, its a no-risk, high reward move by Seattle. 

If I were hurting for a WR, I'd think he's worth a look off waivers. He's now part of the best passing game in the NFL, and one that is throwing more and more, since they have almost zero defense. I think 5-7 targets a week isn't unreasonable, especially with likely constant 1-on-1 coverage against 3rd CB's.

Whaaat? LMAO.

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4 hours ago, DallasDMac said:

Do people feel if they keep saying this it will suddenly become true? Or is it just a self-justification thing where folks have a complete inability to admit they made a poor choice hanging on to him for years? I simply don't get it.

Gordon averaged 70 yards per game as a starter last season. That is the same as Kenny Golladay, Cooper Kupp, and Julian Edelman did that season. I'm not saying Gordon is an elite player by any means, but people saying he is washed up are delusional, or just have some kind of hate boner for the guy. 

I have no attachment to Gordon, but its crazy to me the amount of people who just want to completely write off a guy for no good reason. I think some people just get a lot of bitterness or hatred for some reason, and want to see guys fail. You see the same thing in the Cam Newton thread, and in the Beckham one as well. As soon as there is a slump, or injury, or whatever, its this guy sucks, and has sucked for years. 

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New Seahawks WR Josh Gordon was limited in Thursday's practice with an ankle issue.

It was Gordon's knee that ended his Patriots career a few weeks ago. The "limited" session suggests he's still on track to make his Seattle debut Monday evening against the 49ers, and coach Pete Carroll suggested as much. No higher than third on the depth chart, Gordon is a low-upside WR5 for Week 10.

Nov 7, 2019, 8:00 PM ET

 

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Seahawks WR Josh Gordon will be a game-time decision for Week 10 against the 49ers.

Gordon was left off the injury report but that doesn't guarantee him a spot in the starting lineup. When asked about Gordon's availability, coach Pete Carroll said, "There’s a good chance" he'll play, but he's taking a "wait-and-see" approach since Gordon is new to the offense. With Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf both playing well, Gordon isn't expected to see many targets in the next couple of weeks. It's best to keep Gordon on the bench in season-long leagues with so much up in the air right now.

SOURCE: NFL.com

Nov 9, 2019, 5:41 PM ET

 

 

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I don't think anyone is arguing that Gordon is anything but a flier for a WR3 at this point, and that's if everything breaks right for him in Seattle. Their incorporation of Hollister at the TE position and the amount they throw will definitely cap his production.

This is really retread city. 

Edited by rockaction
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I watched film of 2 Gordon games from earlier this season and a few things really stood out to me...

Corners still gave him a big cushion, and at least early in the season, he was eating up that cushion pretty quickly with surprising acceleration off the line.

On almost every short and intermediate target to any WR, Brady threw the ball low and away from the defender; in the week 3 Jets game, at least 3 incompletions to Gordon were thrown below his knees and at or behind Gordon while Gordon was running with pace - an quite difficult catch for a 6'3" size/speed WR to make. On almost every intermediate or deep throw, Gordon was left waiting for the ball to arrive, giving defenders chances to recover and/or make better plays on the ball - Brady doesn't have the arm strength to consistently make accurate throws downfield. 

Gordon had some trouble catching the ball in traffic/through contact, though this appeared to be a combination of Brady's inaccurate passing downfield and Gordon's rust vs age. 

 

Russell is a much better downfield QB than Brady, and neither Moore nor Brown pose any real obstacle to Gordon seeing snaps or targets. 

In fantasy terms, Wilson is likely to see a little bump in production given (edit) given Gordon representing an upgrade over Brown and Moore and an end of season schedule that will require more offensive production.

Moore and Brown go from unrosterable in all but the deepest leagues to unrosterable in even the deepest leagues.

If Gordon is worthy of more than the 4 targets a game that Moore+Brown averaged, I imagine Lockett will have a marginal decrease in opportunity combined with a marginal increase in efficiency resulting in similar overall production.

Gordon might draw a target or two away from Metcalf as well, but if Gordon is demanding more targets than Metcalf, Metcalf is likely to see the 3rd DB or a safety in coverage and should be able to take advantage with an increase in efficiency - and I expect similar fantasy production going forward. The team will likely continue to develop Metcalf with a high percentage of snaps counts.

 

So my Gordon prediction is the 4 targets per game from Moore/Brown, plus 2 targets per game because he's much better than either of them , a 65% catch rate because Wilson is more accurate than Brady, an avg YPC of 17.5 (Gordon's average over 17 games in NE) and 0.5 TD per game (Wilson throws 1 TD every 13 attempts). 

After the bye, I think a decent median prediction is an average of 4 catches, 70 yards, 0.5 TD per game (12 pts PPR), with quite high variance from game to game (basically what I expect from Metcalf the ROS). If Gordon is the same player physically that I saw in the Jets game, with Wilson's accuracy on the deep ball, I think there is a little more upside. 

Edited by xrayveggin
cleaning up original post
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3 hours ago, xrayveggin said:

I watched film of 2 Gordon games from earlier this season and a few things really stood out to me...

Corners still gave him a big cushion, and at least early in the season, he was eating up that cushion pretty quickly with surprising acceleration off the line.

On almost every short and intermediate target to any WR, Brady threw the ball low and away from the defender; in the week 3 Jets game, at least 3 incompletions to Gordon were thrown below his knees and at or behind Gordon while Gordon was running with pace - an quite difficult catch for a 6'3" size/speed WR to make. On almost every intermediate or deep throw, Gordon was left waiting for the ball to arrive, giving defenders chances to recover and/or make better plays on the ball - Brady doesn't have the arm strength to consistently make accurate throws downfield. 

Gordon had some trouble catching the ball in traffic/through contact, though this appeared to be a combination of Brady's inaccurate passing downfield and Gordon's rust vs age. 

 

Russell is a much better downfield QB than Brady, and neither Moore nor Brown pose any real obstacle to Gordon seeing snaps or targets. 

In fantasy terms, Wilson is likely to see a little bump in production given (edit) given Gordon representing an upgrade over Brown and Moore and an end of season schedule that will require more offensive production.

Moore and Brown go from unrosterable in all but the deepest leagues to unrosterable in even the deepest leagues.

If Gordon is worthy of more than the 4 targets a game that Moore+Brown averaged, I imagine Lockett will have a marginal decrease in opportunity combined with a marginal increase in efficiency resulting in similar overall production.

Gordon might draw a target or two away from Metcalf as well, but if Gordon is demanding more targets than Metcalf, Metcalf is likely to see the 3rd DB or a safety in coverage and should be able to take advantage with an increase in efficiency - and I expect similar fantasy production going forward. The team will likely continue to develop Metcalf with a high percentage of snaps counts.

 

So my Gordon prediction is the 4 targets per game from Moore/Brown, plus 2 targets per game because he's much better than either of them , a 65% catch rate because Wilson is more accurate than Brady, an avg YPC of 17.5 (Gordon's average over 17 games in NE) and 0.5 TD per game (Wilson throws 1 TD every 13 attempts). 

After the bye, I think a decent median prediction is an average of 4 catches, 70 yards, 0.5 TD per game (12 pts PPR), with quite high variance from game to game (basically what I expect from Metcalf the ROS). If Gordon is the same player physically that I saw in the Jets game, with Wilson's accuracy on the deep ball, I think there is a little more upside. 

More likely he gets stoned and is late to practice.

Also if you remove Gordon's catch rate from Brady's stats and assign it to Wilson's stats, they end up about the same accuracy.

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3 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

If you own Gordon and a someone will still buy in dynasty, you're insane not to sell. 

This is probably your last ever sell window. 

Trade deadline passed in my league last night.

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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to WR Josh Gordon, KC

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