POSITIONAL DROP OFF/TIER EVALUATION
QUARTERBACK:
http://fantasy-footballu.com/zblog/2012/8/1/positional-drop-offtier-evaluation-quarterbacks.html
RUNNINGBACK:
http://fantasy-footballu.com/zblog/2012/8/1/positional-drop-offtier-evaluation-tight-ends.html
WIDE RECEIVER:
http://fantasy-footballu.com/zblog/2012/8/1/positional-drop-offtier-evaluation-wide-receiver.html
TIGHT END:
http://fantasy-footballu.com/zblog/2012/8/1/positional-drop-offtier-evaluation-running-backs.html
Quarterback-
I did this last year and I decided that it was beneficial enough to do it again. One of the main goals In redraft fantasy football is to be grabbing great value in every round, be it the 1st and 2nd or the 11th and 12th. The great value only exists if you can stay in front of the positional runs and keep yourself in good postions to have an all-around team where you feel you have no true starting lineup weakness heading into week 1. Obviously many things change during the season, but as of now, this is my take on where the value lies and how to keep yourself ahead of huge tier drops
First Tier = QB1-QB5( Rodgers,Brady,Brees,Newton,Stafford)
This is the first tier, I actually find myself with a lot of teams that have none of these guys on them. All of these guys are bonafide fantasy studs and barring injury, all should be at least in the top 5 or 6. I havn't ended up with many on my roster because, well, you have to pay that elite premium for their services. all will be gone within the first two rounds, 4 with be gone within the first three picks of the second round barring something strange, I would rather have a RB, but its up to you
Second Tier = QB-6QB11(Rivers, Eli Maning, Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo)
This is usually where I am taking QBs, and that man I'm usually taking is Phillip Rivers. I would MUCH and I mean much, rather have Rivers in the 6th or 7th, than say, Matthew Stafford in the 2nd, I dont think its a question on who the better value is. Sure, I like all the guys in tier 1 better (some by quite a bit) than all of tier two, but the advantage would be that you get to work on other positions in earlier rounds like, say, a more vulnerable position, like running-back. Although I like these guys, this is a tier that I would suggest grabbing an at least semi- competent back up for
Third tier = QB12- QB19(Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Josh freeman, Sam Bradford, Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler)
If you waited this far in your draft, your in all out gamble mode. I do like a few of these guys(Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford and Robert Griffin) who I think could hold the fort for you for most of the year, but they all are far from a sure thing. If you have waited, I would take two rounds in a row to grab your two favs from this tier and hope one of them hits, while the other can serve in spot duty. This tier is also great to add depth late behind either your stud QB(tier 1) or your borderline top tier QB(tier 2) as insurance.
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All in all, My gameplan for this position is usually to wait till the mid rounds and see if Vick or Rivers fall to me, they are the two guys I see that have the most value at the best price. I also cant hate on you if you do decide to go QB in the first two rounds, just be careful about your RB situation, its a steep, slippery slope this year.
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Running Back-
Tier 1 RB1-RB7(Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean MCcoy, Darren McFadden , Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Ryan Mathews)
I see all these guys as essentially the same value, obviously Foster Rice and McCoy have more value than the rest, but is there really that much distance from them and the rest of this group? I dont think so. I think getting 1 and hopefully two RBs early is crucial to succes this year so I think if you grab any of these guys with your first round pick, you are off to a great start.
Tier 2 RB8-RB13(Maurice Jones-Drew, Trent Richardson, Demarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson)
This is probably the most important part of the draft, I am doing whatever I can to get one of these guys in the early to mid 2nd this year. After this tier, there is a big drop off and If you can grab two feature backs, you will have a huge leg up on everyone else. I'm starting to like Steven Jackson more and more considering you can grab him in the mid to late second and pair him up with one of Foster, McCoy and Rice. This is also another reason I love having a late pick this year, pairing up your first round RB with one of these guys in the second. If I start with say, a combination of Mcfadden/Richardson or Forte/Jones-Drew I'm going to be extremely happy.
Now, this isn't to say this tier is picture perfect. There is risk that comes with all these backs(Jones-Drew= Hold out, Murray, Peterson and Charles coming off injury and Steven Jackson = huge career carries totals and age) , but thats why these guys are not in the first tier, because they have more risk than the others, not because they have less talent. In fact, I would say Charles, Peterson and Jones-Drew are all top 5 in the position from a talent aspect.
Moral of the story, they all will produce and will have the lionshare of carries on there respective teams barring the risks I mentioned earlier.
Tier 3( RB14-RB21Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Ahmad Bradhsaw, Doug Martin, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush)
Welp, this is your last chance folks, last stop on the starting runningback train... woot woot.
I'm not totally against having one of these as your starting RB this year, but you will notice some weeks you are very weak compared to the people who paired top tier RBs early, all depends on your strength at other spots(QB,WR,TE) , you will be the weak at RB. Not to say one of these guys can't break out, In fact I think Fred Jackson and Reggie Bush have a shot to be tier 2 Backs this year, but they have less upside and are not really guaranteed anything from a touches stand point. I suppose I've made my stance pretty clear at this point, Its up to you, if you feel comfortable with one of these guys being your starting RB then have at it.
But, if you do like these guys and you do end up waiting, DO NOT wait longer than this. This is your last chance to grab a guy who is a 'for sure' starter before the season. after this, is a big mush pit of mediocrity and guys that seemingly dont have the opportunity.
Runningbacks
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Wide Receiver-
Tier 1 WR1( Calvin Johnson)
yup, much like everything Calvin Johnson Does, he is on a completely different planet. The only problem I have with Calvin Johnson. he keeps me from going RB-RB early. I do not feel comfortable in picking Calvin at 1.5 or 1.6 and that seems to be how early hes going. I trust everything about Calvins talent, the team around him and his injury history however, makes me stay away from him this year. Picking him that high also means he HAS to be the #1 WR, if not, then you missed on that pick. That pick is saying " Calvin is beating the #2 wr by 200 yards and 2TDs" which, if all goes right around him this year, is all but a a sure thing, just not sure everything going right again.
Tier 2 WR2-WR10(Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall,Wes Welker, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks)
I like this tier, not as much as tier three, but Its probably my second favorite. Andre is another one that scares me early in the second round and I have been avoiding in favor of RBs, but if you trust him staying healthy, then you got a great pick there. I almost always try to end up with 1 guy from here, its usually Brandon Marshall or Julio Jones. But, I dont descriminate to much, its mostly who falls to you in the 3rd , or if your really lucky, 4th round. all of this tier have solid chances at being top 5 this year.
Tier 3 WR11-WR21(Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith(CAR), Mike Wallace, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin)
I like this tier, in fact, I will go out and say that the best value picks in all of fantasy will happen in this tier.
YOU CANNOT, I repeat, you cannot do better than Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas , Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin or Marques Colston in the 5th round, you simply cant.
This tier oozes talent,
My bold, but not so bold prediction: two players from this tier will be in the top 5 for fantasy WRs this year.
This is why I think its so valuable to Go RB-RB in round 1 and 2, The value is so deep and strong at WR this year , even if you wait, you could still end up with Brandon Lloyd and Demaryius Thomas as your WR1-WR2 Combo, intense...
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Regardless of what you do with all this , I suggest grabbing 2 players from the following tiers, big drop off after the third one.
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Tight End-
Tier 1 TE1-TE2(Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham)
I mean, can you really deny the talent? absolutely not. both are incredible and should be set to have another fantastic year, will they end up on a lot of my fantasy teams? probably not
I would love to have either on my team this year, but it is simply not worth it to me to spend a 1st or 2nd round draft pick on them. They will be an advantage you have over everyone in the league, but again, I feel you lose out to much on RB not grabbing one in the first two rounds.
Tier 2 TE3-TE7( Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten, Aaron Hernandez, Vernon Davis)
This is the tier I will be picking from essentially every draft. Not to high, not to low,just the right amount of talent to grab no matter which TE falls in the 5th round. You can't really bank on them falling farther than that so I suggest grabbing your TE a bit early if your drafting on the 4th and 5th turn. I usually end up with Finley, Davis or Witten as Gates and Hernandez are going a bit earlier, but if you like them grab them in the early to mid 4th and dont look back.
Tier 3 TE8-TE12(Fred Davis, Jacob Tamme, Brandon Pettigrew, Tony Gonzalez,Jermaine Gresham)
Hey, if you like Coby Flenner, throw him in there as well.
Some make the arguement for Fred Davis as being worthy of the next tier, as I'm not sold, draft him that way if you like, personal preference at that point.
I seems this tier is filled with a bunch of solid, but not spectacular talents. all could be a top 5-7 player if things go right, but barring crazy injury I dont see them cracking the top 6. most will be solid throughout and will hold down the fort, but they also wont make a huge impact either.
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