DropKick
Footballguy
Looking back at this thread, its funny to see all the negative talk from last summer swing to the other end of the spectrum. Fantasy football is a very "what have you done lately" environment.I'm not getting why Ryan seems to be such a popular regression target for 2017. I get that folks are not predicting him to be as efficient as he was last year. There was a level of crazy to his play that does scream 'career year'. But...
1) He finished 17th in the NFL with 534 pass attempts. If he replicates that, it's likely because the Falcons offense is operating at close to the same level of efficiency. If his attempts go up, Ryan hasn't had a completion rate of below 66% since 2011.
2) OLine - yes, the Falcons were fortunate to have their OL start as a unit in every game. But with that said, for most of Ryan's career, the Falcons OL has not been nearly as highly regarded as it is now.
3) Weapons - in Ryan's career worst season in 2015, his #2 option was Roddy White...a clearly diminished, no one invited him to camp in 2016' Roddy White. Devonta Freeman was just emerging as a legit foundational RB and Tevin Coleman was a rookie. Fast forward to 2017, the Falcons:
- still have Julio...in his prime.
- Sanu, while maybe not a fantasy asset is a fine compliment on the other side. (Just an FYI, he may be having the best TC of any Falcon).
- the receiving capabaility of the Falcons backfield is unparalleled.. Freeman/Coleman combined for 85/883/5 in 2016. Both of them entering their prime.
- Taylor Gabriel was a gift via the WW who provided a jitterbug speed quotient to the Falcons offense.
- 2nd year TE, Austin Hooper has the opportunity to make that Year 1 to Year 2 leap.
I certainly understand the loss of Shanahan...but Ryan is entering his 10th year in the NFL. So he knows the league/defenses/coverages etc...as well as the best in the game. He's in his prime. His floor is high as is his ceiling.
So why is he such a popular 'avoid this guy' candidate?
Here, you know the expectation is regression to the mean. Not sure we'll see 38 TDs again. If you look at those posts from last summer, Ryan was focused on his footwork/mechanics, etc. So, you wonder, when can a player develop some facets of their game and actually change who he is as a player?
You're right about the weapons. I wouldn't avoid Ryan - SB hangover be damned.