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QB Matt Ryan, IND (1 Viewer)

I'm not getting why Ryan seems to be such a popular regression target for 2017.  I get that folks are not predicting him to be as efficient as he was last year.  There was a level of crazy to his play that does scream 'career year'.  But...

1) He finished 17th in the NFL with 534 pass attempts.  If he replicates that, it's likely because the Falcons offense is operating at close to the same level of efficiency.  If his attempts go up, Ryan hasn't had a completion rate of below 66% since 2011.

2) OLine - yes, the Falcons were fortunate to have their OL start as a unit in every game.  But with that said, for most of Ryan's career, the Falcons OL has not been nearly as highly regarded as it is now.  

3) Weapons - in Ryan's career worst season in 2015, his #2 option was Roddy White...a clearly diminished, no one invited him to camp in 2016' Roddy White.  Devonta Freeman was just emerging as a legit foundational RB and Tevin Coleman was a rookie.  Fast forward to 2017, the Falcons:

- still have Julio...in his prime.

- Sanu, while maybe not a fantasy asset is a fine compliment on the other side.  (Just an FYI, he may be having the best TC of any Falcon).

- the receiving capabaility of the Falcons backfield is unparalleled.. Freeman/Coleman combined for 85/883/5 in 2016.  Both of them entering their prime.

- Taylor Gabriel was a gift via the WW who provided a jitterbug speed quotient to the Falcons offense.

- 2nd year TE, Austin Hooper has the opportunity to make that Year 1 to Year 2 leap.

I certainly understand the loss of Shanahan...but Ryan is entering his 10th year in the NFL.  So he knows the league/defenses/coverages etc...as well as the best in the game.  He's in his prime.  His floor is high as is his ceiling.  

So why is he such a popular 'avoid this guy' candidate?
Looking back at this thread, its funny to see all the negative talk from last summer swing to the other end of the spectrum.  Fantasy football is a very "what have you done lately" environment.

Here, you know the expectation is regression to the mean.  Not sure we'll see 38 TDs again.  If you look at those posts from last summer, Ryan was focused on his footwork/mechanics, etc.  So, you wonder, when can a player develop some facets of their game and actually change who he is as a player?

You're right about the weapons.  I wouldn't avoid Ryan - SB hangover be damned.

 
apparently defeat isn't a very good fuel. At least not in Matt Ryans case.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSLV3AjLiZk

What happened to this guy? Is his lack of production a result of his offensive coordinator change?

Seems that this team was on the rise with some really good young talent last year. I was really expecting a step forward not backwards.

 
Matt Ryan completed 22-of-36 passes for 210 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions in the Falcons' 15-10, Divisional Round loss to the Eagles.

Ryan couldn't bust any big plays and struggled in the red zone as the Falcons lost a game they probably should have won against a team starting its No. 2 quarterback. Ryan was a lock to fall back from his 2016 MVP campaign this season, but regressed well past the mean. His 4,095 yards were his fewest since 2010, while his 20 scores were his fewest since his rookie year. His YPA dropped nearly a yard and a half, dipping from 9.26 to 7.74. All season, Ryan and the Falcons' passing attack was anemic in the red zone. Going on 33, Ryan did not exhibit any physical drop-off. He'll be a top 10-12 option in 2018 fantasy drafts.

Jan 13 - 7:54 PM
 
apparently defeat isn't a very good fuel. At least not in Matt Ryans case.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSLV3AjLiZk

What happened to this guy? Is his lack of production a result of his offensive coordinator change?

Seems that this team was on the rise with some really good young talent last year. I was really expecting a step forward not backwards.
stats say a high % of his INTS from last year were just dumb luck not a problem per se..he was still the 3rd highest rated QB in PFF formulas..he should get back to 2016 form this season..profootballfocus has him as a top rebound candidate for 2018..that offense is going to be lethal.thats not me saying it, thats the math guys at PFF saying it!

 
All those chances to win the game on the last drive... and Ryan never gave his receivers a chance to make a play. That explains a lot about him. You cant just keep throwing everything out of the back of the endzone, at some point you have to give Julio Jones a shot to out-leap the defenders or Ertz to box them out and make catch. He was playing to avoid a mistake, not to put a knife in the Eagles hearts.

 
All those chances to win the game on the last drive... and Ryan never gave his receivers a chance to make a play. That explains a lot about him. You cant just keep throwing everything out of the back of the endzone, at some point you have to give Julio Jones a shot to out-leap the defenders or Ertz to box them out and make catch. He was playing to avoid a mistake, not to put a knife in the Eagles hearts.
probably a typo there.

Not to be an apologist, but there is a clear regression to his stats with Sark as the OC. Not a fan of Sark, so I'm gonna assume this isn't a coincidence. This was stated in the Freeman thread as well by other posters, the dude has no idea how to use his personnel properly. If I was a Falcons fan, I'd be awfully frustrated at last night's performance though, some of those passes like you said were just bad.

 
probably a typo there.

Not to be an apologist, but there is a clear regression to his stats with Sark as the OC. Not a fan of Sark, so I'm gonna assume this isn't a coincidence. This was stated in the Freeman thread as well by other posters, the dude has no idea how to use his personnel properly. If I was a Falcons fan, I'd be awfully frustrated at last night's performance though, some of those passes like you said were just bad.
While last night was not encouraging for Falcons fans relating to any hoped for improvement from Sark, Year 1 to Year 2...Ryan was bad last night.  And aside from 2016, he’s only eclipsed 30 TD’s one other time in his career.  His RZ skills have always been sketchy.  But he’s made up for it in other ways.  The throw he made to Julio on 3rd and long which was lobbed because the pressure was getting to him and he needed to buy Julio time to turn around was peak Matt Ryan.

There is an utmost confidence the great ones have in themselves...I think ultimately, Ryan lacks that in key moments.

 
I would not be sold on Matt Ryan as a #1 Fantasy QB but as a #2 QB who fills in when he has easy match ups or your #1 QB has a difficult match up he is fine.

 
I’m actually contemplating dropping him for an upside play like trubisky.  He’ll even bortles. 

I sat him yesterday BC I looked at recent games vs philly and they seem to own him.  But he looked worse than I imagined he would.  

I’m not going to jump ship after week 1 (although my gut is telling me I was dead wrong about him having a bounce back year in his 2nd year with this new OC), butnits taking all I got to not jump ship.  

 
opening drive, julio julio julio.take julio out, and run, run, throw a pass over a guys head. in the end they still coulve won.i think their HC is really the one to blame.here.he's just plain bad...horrible head coach..

 
Drafted him to lead a young dynasty qbbc (Mahomes, Mitch) but looks like he might get the clipboard sooner than later.

Hell, I got stuck with Bortles late when I threw him out for $1. Might be a blessing in disguise. 

I agree with others that Sark is part of the problem. But no one is to blame but the QB for throwing it out of the back of end zone on last play off the game. 

 
The shark move is to pick up Ryan in the next few weeks assuming Sark is canned by week 6.

Sark is so terrible I have no idea what the falcons were doing hiring him. He is pulling the exact same terrible play calling stunts as he did when he was at USC. Cannot punch it in the red zone. Lining up 5 wide, basically what you would get seeing some 12 year old play Madden.

 
Ryan is becoming more inconsistent each season as a viable starter. He will have some very big games this year. He will also have some duds that will hurt you some weeks. Unless there is more consistent option on the waivers Ryan would be a hold for me. 

 
I agree with others that Sark is part of the problem. But no one is to blame but the QB for throwing it out of the back of end zone on last play off the game. 
Or holding on to the ball too long and taking a sack when they are on the fringe of field goal range.  He does that way too much, and that is something a veteran shouldn't be doing as often as Ryan does.  

It goes without saying that any QB is gonna be better with a clean pocket, but Ryan seems to drop off much further than most QBs once you get some pressure on him. 

 
Was targeting him late in a few drafts but didn't get him. Thank goodness. 
Waited on QB too long and ended up Ryan.   Opposite of thank goodness.  

Lets hope Phillys D was a big part of the problem but that still doesn't explain Ryan's decision making in the RZ.  

 
How is that the Falcons gave such talent at the skill positions and just can't score? I get Sark is getting heat but they move up and down the field between the 20s at will. When they hit the redzone they suck. I think most of this is on Ryan. I don't think he has ever recovered from super bowl 51...

 
I’m actually contemplating dropping him for an upside play like trubisky.  He’ll even bortles. 

I sat him yesterday BC I looked at recent games vs philly and they seem to own him.  But he looked worse than I imagined he would.  

I’m not going to jump ship after week 1 (although my gut is telling me I was dead wrong about him having a bounce back year in his 2nd year with this new OC), butnits taking all I got to not jump ship.  
I'm kind of in the same place, but wouldn't drop for Bortles.  Just don't really see the upside.  Trubisky is interesting, but not sure he will be that much better overall.

Alex Smith and Flacco are available in my league and I am considering them.  Ryan does supposedly have an easy SOS (6th-easiest according to fantasypros), though Flacco supposedly has the easiest.  I don't really buy into SOS as a first principle, but when looking at as an additional factor in a tiebreak situation, then I think it is worth considering.

Had been thinking before that I might dump Ryan for Jameis if he wasn't getting it done, though I guess that TB situation needs to be monitored now.

 
I'm absolutely sold on Ryan.  He's proved on numerous occasions that he can get the job done.  It looks like people are blaming Atlanta's record on Ryan instead of their defense giving away how many games now?  Though, If the Falcons want to part ways with him, there are at least 20 teams that would jump on him in a heartbeat.

With that said though, the Falcons have completely quit on Dan Quinn.  The players seemed to have given up once eliminated from the playoffs... but, shouldn't they be playing to show other NFL GMs that they belong in the league?

 
ATL's poor defense and great offense is a FF recipe for success.  Ryan has eclipsed 4K passing yds in each of the last 8 yrs, with an avg of 4582.  To put that into perspective, only 5 QB's last year threw for over 4582, and yet he has averaged that for 8 yrs.  His yearly TD totals are all over the map though, making him QB2 (35), QB3 (38), QB14 (20), and QB18 (21) over the past 4 yrs, while finishing no lower than 6th in yds.

So the question is, will he throw for low 20's or 30+?  The emergence of Calvin Ridley certainly has me leaning towards the 30+.  Sanu has been a decent but unspectacular WR2 behind Julio.  I doubt I will own him this year, as I am usually one of the last in my league to draft a QB.  

 
Frank Black said:
Ryan is too much of an every other year QB for me to count on as my first QB. 
He had that pattern but he's also finished as the QB2 in 2 of the last 3 years. His price tag isn't too bad right now. 

 
Frank Black said:
Ryan is too much of an every other year QB for me to count on as my first QB. 
I think this is a poor argument, when you look at the stats.  The only thing making his ranking change from year to year is TD's.  His completion % has been in the mid to upper 60's in 7 straight seasons, and prior to his back and forth yrs, he ranked as 7, 10, 6, 8, and 10 in 5 straight yrs.  I would say that's pretty consistent.  He had a down year in 2017 for passing yards, but still topped 4K.  That was an outlier in the past 7 seasons, as he put up 4500 - 4900 in the other 6.  Ryan has topped 4K in each of the last 8 seasons.  You know who else has done that? nobody 

 
I definitely respect Ryan and he's proved beyond a doubt his worth given his relative consistency and contribution -- NFL and FF-wise.

But with his TD variance, seems like waiting on a guy like Cam, Brees, Big Ben, and Goff at their ADPs in the 7th and beyond may provide a team more overall value elsewhere than having to get Ryan in about the 5th, where his current ADP is.

 
How much of this was his carrying the offense in the wake of the injuries at RB - if the RB situation clears up does he revert to a more "normal" year? They went from approx 15th  in the league in rushing to 28th or so.
Couple of things...

1) You are correct that the hope is that Ryan’s attempts come back to the 550-560 range with Freeman back and an emphasis placed on acquiring OL personnel.  But his YPA from 2016-2018 is 8.35.  At 550 attempts, that puts him right about 4600 yards.

2) Calvin Ridley Year 2.  It’s the best tandem Ryan’s had to work with since peak Roddy White.  Also consider that Sanu is a viable slot piece, Austin Hooper has become a great safety valve and when he’s healthy, Freeman is as good in the passing game as any RB in the NFL and there is no shortage of weapons.

Yes...he’s had dips during his career in TD’s previously (including 2017).  At the same time, since 2016, no one has thrown for more TD’s (tied with Rivers at 93...Rivers has 43 INT’s though to Ryan’s 26).  

 
Matt Ryan completed 27-of-43 passes for 320 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions in the Falcons' Week 2 win over the Eagles.

With the run game getting shut down, the Falcons went pass heavy against the Eagles, allowing Ryan to throw it 40-plus times for the second straight week. Ryan attacked Eagles CB Ronald Darby most of the night, throwing for just under half of his yards and two of his touchdowns against him. It was another uneven game from Ryan, who mixed in in three picks between his TDs. Ryan has been turnover prone to start the year, with five interceptions through the first two games. He'll be a mid-range QB1 for a matchup with the Colts in Week 3.

Sep 15, 2019, 11:43 PM ET

 

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