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Very much agree that I would have jumped on Morris and I'm a huge Hilton fan. That said FF NInja, I usually agree with your opinions (see Lynch last year), but I think you need to take another look at Hilton. Can run every route, very professional for a young guy, extremely quick and gets separation, great QB. I'm talking dynasty PPR
I don't like that one at all, but then again I'm not a Cook fan. Not because I think he sucks.. the jury is still out on him. I just see him as a gamble and Bradford as a gamble. If you want production out of Cook, you are essentially gambling on both of them to be good this year. I don't like those odds. But I also like Sanders this year. I think he'll be solid with breakout potential. But if you filled two positions of need then I guess it was an ok trade, but I think you gave up more potential (talent x probability of success) than you got.
I'm no talent scout, so I approach these things from a mathematical angle. Here's how I see the Hilton situation:
If Hilton approaches Cruz territory, I'm making a cake. As for Desean, that is his best comp in my opinion but I prefer the prospects of Luck versus what McNabb/Vick were able to provide.
Haha, no, I wasn't making a player to player comparison. Simply making a comparison of guys who got hyped up after an abnormal amount of long plays the year before. DeSean broke the record for TDs over 40 yards and Cruz had a handful of very long receptions and both saw a significant dip in production the next year. Hilton is probably not going to have as many big plays this year, so he'll be cheaper later than he is now.
Well, since I watched almost every pass play to him from last season (started around mid-season) I can say with confidence that his "drops" were not bad drops at all. I noticed maybe 3 or 4 that should have been caught. Not bad for a rookie. They say in that link that you posted that "Of course numbers don’t paint an entire picture. Not all drops are created equal", and I agree. That's T.Y. - In my opinion, of course. But it's not just mine - in fact that very same site that you link to says about T.Y., on the Colts team Preview page, that T.Y. is a "Young Playmaker" and later about Hilton that "Luck isn't the only young talent on this roster." It then goes on to say about his drops that "rookie growing pains are expected."
I agree they are not all the same. I think you are right to not dismiss it and to not take it as concrete proof of bad hands. I view it simply as a red flag.
I don't mean to be rude at all, but I don't think you are grasping the concept of dropped passes. All of them should have been caught, not just 3-4 of them. That's why they list the number of catchable passes. There are definitely passes thrown that are out of reach or at a player's feet that maybe he gets one hand on - that is not considered a catchable pass or a drop. But I also agree that not all drops are created equal.Well, since I watched almost every pass play to him from last season (started around mid-season) I can say with confidence that his "drops" were not bad drops at all. I noticed maybe 3 or 4 that should have been caught. Not bad for a rookie. They say in that link that you posted that "Of course numbers don’t paint an entire picture. Not all drops are created equal", and I agree. That's T.Y. - In my opinion, of course. But it's not just mine - in fact that very same site that you link to says about T.Y., on the Colts team Preview page, that T.Y. is a "Young Playmaker" and later about Hilton that "Luck isn't the only young talent on this roster." It then goes on to say about his drops that "rookie growing pains are expected."
Saying that he "caught a lot of breaks last year" is strictly your opinion. From watching those catches I'd say those "breaks" were his speed and quick feet that allowed him to use his speed after the catch or to catch up to the ball in the air. I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone else that would call his long gains "a lot of breaks". In addition to his "breaks" not being breaks at all - he also led all rookie WRs in TDs catches, was second in yards and third in receptions - and thats leaving out his #1 status in YPC because we aren't talking about "breaks". All those numbers were achived without him getting much playing time for about half the season as an article I linker to earlier referenced.
I don't get the size thing, either. He's around 5'10"/185. Welker's similar size. S. Smith's similar in size (at the same age). Maybe you're talking about his build? His teammate Wayne is similar build at 6'0"/198. If T.Y. adds 5lbs or more in the coming seasons (a very realistic goal) then he'd actually be a bit bulkier than Wayne. There's more examples out there, as well.
Maybe we just agree to disagree? Either way, I enjoy reading the points you bring up. I just don't agree with them.
Come on, you know I can grasp the "definition" of dropped passes - even though the stat in itself is extremely interpretive. I tried to make it clear that I disagreed with the assesment, and even the site you linked had some forgive in the stat itself with the disclaimer that they aren't all equal.I agree they are not all the same. I think you are right to not dismiss it and to not take it as concrete proof of bad hands. I view it simply as a red flag.
I don't mean to be rude at all, but I don't think you are grasping the concept of dropped passes. All of them should have been caught, not just 3-4 of them. That's why they list the number of catchable passes. There are definitely passes thrown that are out of reach or at a player's feet that maybe he gets one hand on - that is not considered a catchable pass or a drop. But I also agree that not all drops are created equal.Well, since I watched almost every pass play to him from last season (started around mid-season) I can say with confidence that his "drops" were not bad drops at all. I noticed maybe 3 or 4 that should have been caught. Not bad for a rookie. They say in that link that you posted that "Of course numbers don’t paint an entire picture. Not all drops are created equal", and I agree. That's T.Y. - In my opinion, of course. But it's not just mine - in fact that very same site that you link to says about T.Y., on the Colts team Preview page, that T.Y. is a "Young Playmaker" and later about Hilton that "Luck isn't the only young talent on this roster." It then goes on to say about his drops that "rookie growing pains are expected."
Saying that he "caught a lot of breaks last year" is strictly your opinion. From watching those catches I'd say those "breaks" were his speed and quick feet that allowed him to use his speed after the catch or to catch up to the ball in the air. I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone else that would call his long gains "a lot of breaks". In addition to his "breaks" not being breaks at all - he also led all rookie WRs in TDs catches, was second in yards and third in receptions - and thats leaving out his #1 status in YPC because we aren't talking about "breaks". All those numbers were achived without him getting much playing time for about half the season as an article I linker to earlier referenced.
I don't get the size thing, either. He's around 5'10"/185. Welker's similar size. S. Smith's similar in size (at the same age). Maybe you're talking about his build? His teammate Wayne is similar build at 6'0"/198. If T.Y. adds 5lbs or more in the coming seasons (a very realistic goal) then he'd actually be a bit bulkier than Wayne. There's more examples out there, as well.
Maybe we just agree to disagree? Either way, I enjoy reading the points you bring up. I just don't agree with them.
Saying that he caught a lot of breaks last year is not strictly my opinion. They were a result of quick feet and all of that, but so were DeSean Jackson's long TDs a few years ago. That doesn't mean he didn't catch a few breaks for that to happen because obviously it hasn't happened again. And yes, he led all rookie WRs in TDs which is actually right in line with my point that he caught some breaks. TDs are a very volatile stat. Calvin Johnson only had 5 last year despite 122 receptions and nearly 2000 yards. Hilton had 7 on 50 receptions. A lot of long plays + high TD rate + rookie = offseason hype. I'm not saying I'm sure he's going to flop, but the odds of success are not good. Now that he's headed into a season with a completely new offense and possibly with DHB ahead of him on the depth chart, you'd be well advised to acquire him later as his current ADP of WR32 is probably his peak value for the next 12 months or more.
Nah, I was really thinking we weren't talking about the same thing (and I really didn't mean it disrespectfully). The site says he dropped 10, you say 3-4. I thought there was a serious disconnect. I still think there is one. The stat is certainly subjective to some extent, but keep in mind they try to grade everybody the same. Plus, you didn't actually sit down and count. You are just going by memory from watching all the games a year ago. Not quite the same thing.
I have been taking a flyer on DHB in a few drafts, but yes Hilton is probably the guy to own. DHB still has hands of stone even though Luck is an upgrade over any QB he's ever played with.
im bullish on ty currently because i dont believe in wayne or nicks staying healthy for a full season. Nicks seems to play hurt a lot and is why i still like ty for this year
Hilton may not be on the field for run plays because Pagano or Pep appear to be infatuated with big receivers who can block (which is why DHB was on the field so much last year), but you have to assume he will be for every meaningful passing play. Hilton is clearly Indy's best WR.
I disagree, he's an ideal #3 WR in my eyes. He's way to inconsistent to vault him into that top 24 IMO. For every monster game, he throws up 2 duds. So you're left with 5-6 monster games and about 9-10 , 2 rec for 29 yd games. In NON-PPR leagues, he's probaby a low-end WR3 at that.Eminence said:
You're nuts sorry. He's a great playmaker but he was also Lucks #1 WR for 1/2 the yr last year. The last 7 weeks, he finished with 41 rec's for 420 and 0 TD's. Thats an average of just under 6 rec's, 60 yds/game. In other words, #3 WR production at best. He had 5 monster games last year and 11 duds. Thats pretty much the definition of a fantasy WR3. Until he's a bigger target in the redzone, hes going to still be a boom or bust play every week.
I love Hilton's talent and speed, but I see him as a ok #2 but feel much better with him as a #3 due to the boom/bust factor on a weekly basis.
nice cherry picking to not include weeks 8 and 9 or the playoffs when he was also lucks#1. wayne went down week 7, so hiltons stats from that point forward were 72-998-5. an average of 6.5-90 over 11 games
Yeah, this is about natural progression. No guy is the guy until he is the guy. When Wayne went down, Hilton became that guy but the colts were beating their heads into the wall wanting to run and really not having any balance opposite Hilton at all. Now you have a team that has said they plan to let their franchise qb do what a franchise qb does. That's good for Hilton. They also have their move the chains wr veteran. That's good for Hilton. THEy also have legitimate balance at wr with the trio of playmakers.
Thats great now we're counting playoff games haha. Using that KC/INDY playoff game is absurd, there were 90 pts scored in it in a game they were down 3 td's. Ha It is what it is. He's a big play guy, i wont take that from him nor should anyone. But any talk of him being a WR1 is laughable. He dissappears far to often and no WR1 will go 6 weeks w/o a score and w/o reaching 80 yds recieving. You want to invest reasonably high in that kind of player, you can have him. I'd draft him as my WR3 and if that price is too high, so be it.
I never said he was a wr1. just pointing out how you were cherry picking with your stats. you wanted to analyze his stats as lucks #1. then you conveniently left out week 8's 7-121-3 line, week 9's 7-130-0 line, playoff week 1's 13-224-2 line and playoff week 2's 4-103-0 line
Like I said last year - you have to be willing to start him every week. Hilton was the best WR for the Colts last year, but I do see his targets going down with Allen and Wayne back and Nicks added to the mix.
I think we are in agreement - I'd say WR40 is <5% chance but if he ends up being the 4th/5th option (doubtful) the possibility is there. He was WR19 last year and with all the additions I just don't see a better season. Highest probability, I'd say 80%, is he ends up WR20 - WR25.
He's just a tick smaller than Steve Smith and Antonio Brown (inch shorter than brown and 5 lbs lighter than both). I compare him more to Brown, who is much better in space than fighting off DBs (like Smith was when younger).
I agree. Brown is fantastic.nastynate said:
My question has always been, can he be a better short/intermediate target, like Brown, or is he a one trick pony, like Desean Jackson?
