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Buy low, sell high, buy high, sell low


Dr. Awesome

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Most of week one in the book and everyone is interpreting the results differently.

Who are you looking to move/acquire?

Some interesting names:

Fred Jackson - if it really is a minor injury he'll be back soon enough. If it's not rbbc he's a stud.

CJ Spiller - if Fred Jackson has a major injury Spiller is a stud. If he's back soon sell now?

Trent Richardson - He got all the work for the Browns. But he did nothing with it. Buy low or sell while he has a name?

Cam Newton - lousy game against a lousy defense. Sell him to those who think it means nothing?

Alfred Morris - some owners are scared of Shannahan. Buy high? Morris had a very good game but a lot of folks are looking to sell. If he stays healthy no reason to think they'll go away from him.

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Most of week one in the book and everyone is interpreting the results differently.Who are you looking to move/acquire?Some interesting names:Fred Jackson - if it really is a minor injury he'll be back soon enough. If it's not rbbc he's a stud.CJ Spiller - if Fred Jackson has a major injury Spiller is a stud. If he's back soon sell now?Trent Richardson - He got all the work for the Browns. But he did nothing with it. Buy low or sell while he has a name?Newton - It does mean nothing. The running game offered nothing and he still got a couple goal line carries. He will eventually cash those in - and we know the team is still willing to use him down there. Buy. ETA: I will say this: I though Newton got over his pouting stage. He claimed to have, but still isn't the leader he should be. I don't recall this from his college days, but that could just be my memory. For the Panthers to be the darling that many experts predicted, Newton needs to make his teammates better. But, again, from a fantasy standpoint - buy. Alfred Morris - some owners are scared of Shannahan. Buy high? Morris had a very good game but a lot of folks are looking to sell. If he stays healthy no reason to think they'll go away from him.

Jackson - I don't know why anyone would give much for Freddy, other than a Spiller owner. Hold.Spiller - Hold. Richardson - Way too early to sell. He will be closer to 100% every day. The Browns won't play the Eagles every week. Hold.Newton - It does mean nothing. The running game offered nothing and he still got a couple goal line carries. He will eventually cash those in - and we know the team is still willing to use him down there. Buy. Morris - Buy. His per game potential is RB1 numbers. Buy him for anything less than RB2 cost.
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Most of week one in the book and everyone is interpreting the results differently.Who are you looking to move/acquire?Some interesting names:Fred Jackson - if it really is a minor injury he'll be back soon enough. If it's not rbbc he's a stud.CJ Spiller - if Fred Jackson has a major injury Spiller is a stud. If he's back soon sell now?Trent Richardson - He got all the work for the Browns. But he did nothing with it. Buy low or sell while he has a name?Cam Newton - lousy game against a lousy defense. Sell him to those who think it means nothing? Alfred Morris - some owners are scared of Shannahan. Buy high? Morris had a very good game but a lot of folks are looking to sell. If he stays healthy no reason to think they'll go away from him.

Jackson - I don't know why anyone would give much for Freddy, other than a Spiller owner. Hold.Spiller - Hold. Richardson - Way too early to sell. He will be closer to 100% every day. The Browns won't play the Eagles every week. Hold.Newton - It does mean nothing. The running game offered nothing and he still got a couple goal line carries. He will eventually cash those in - and we know the team is still willing to use him down there. Buy. Morris - Buy. His per game potential is RB1 numbers. Buy him for anything less than RB2 cost.
:goodposting: Also I would try to sell high on Kevin Smith if you can. 2 things happne in the coming weeks. 1) Competition for carries comes off suspension 2) Smith will get dinged. Move him if you can.
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Cam Newton - lousy game against a lousy defense. Sell him to those who think it means nothing?

I will say this: I thought Newton got over his pouting stage. He claimed to have, but still isn't the leader he should be. I don't recall this from his college days, but that could just be my memory. For the Panthers to be the darling that many experts predicted, Newton needs to make his teammates better. But, again, from a fantasy standpoint - buy.
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no one is selling the Spiller lottery ticket...overnight their 8th round RB4 may have turned into a RB1/2.

I'd try and get Hillis cheap as a throw in..

definitely buying Dwyer for the short term..

sell S. Greene as fast as you possibly can...

I'd try to buy Cedric Benson...don't love him at all skill wise but they played the best run in the league and we're behind all game which won't happen much. You might be able to get him very cheap or he may be dropped in some leagues.

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[quote name='Concept Coop' timestamp='1347285326' post='14739638

Richardson - Way too early to sell. He will be closer to 100% every day. The Browns won't play the Eagles every week. Hold.

It of course always depends on what you can get in return, but the Browns don't exactly have an easy schedule. Folks may be able to flip him for Ridley, Morris, maybe even a Spiller.

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A few more names to throw out there:

RG3 - Hold (Nobody is selling now). I think he's Cam Newton, production wise, without the goal line touches, in a better situation.

Mark Ingram - I'm buying, as a throw in. That said, my expectations were too high going into the season. His situation might be worse than it was last season; I expected the opposite.

Chris Johnson - He is not CJ2K anymore, if feel comfortable saying that. That said, I think he is an RB1. Buy.

Mikel LeShoure - Buy. Hopefully the owner is scared of Kevin Smith.

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It of course always depends on what you can get in return, but the Browns don't exactly have an easy schedule. Folks may be able to flip him for Ridley, Morris, maybe even a Spiller.

I would move him for Spiller/Ridley, if his name carries that much value still. I wouldn't move him without getting a RB I feel comfortable starting every week, however. I think that is closer to his market, today.
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Buy low- Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Peyton HillisSell High- Alfred Morris and Mark Sanchez

Both Wayne and Garcon saw their value skyrocket IMO. I do think they're both BUYS though. Probably buy highs depending how people view their performances. I think Wayne showed he's going to be an every week starter with a real QB again and Garcon was THE focus of the new Redskins offense when he was on the field.
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It of course always depends on what you can get in return, but the Browns don't exactly have an easy schedule. Folks may be able to flip him for Ridley, Morris, maybe even a Spiller.

I would move him for Spiller/Ridley, if his name carries that much value still. I wouldn't move him without getting a RB I feel comfortable starting every week, however. I think that is closer to his market, today.
From your first post you consider Morris to be a #1 rb but wouldn't feel comfortable starting him every week? Looking at Shannahan's history, he's generally gone with one guy until that player gets hurt. And rb's with scrambling qb's often have better results than typical stand in the pocket guys. If Griffin continues to play well that should open up some space for Alfred.Richardson had an ADP of rb #16. Ridley, 25. Spiller, 34. Morris, 50. Some folks still put a lot of stock in the pre-season rankings. And when you consider Richardson didn't play thanks to surgery, there are reasons to think he was rusty. I still like Richardson and wouldn't give him away, but I'd definitely explore my options.
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From your first post you consider Morris to be a #1 rb but wouldn't feel comfortable starting him every week? Looking at Shannahan's history, he's generally gone with one guy until that player gets hurt. And rb's with scrambling qb's often have better results than typical stand in the pocket guys.

I said Morris's PPG's upside is RB1. I know, barring injury, that Richardson will start every game from here on out. I can't say that about Morris, yet. I am not selling Morris, but I am not giving Richardson for him yet, either.
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I actually think a guy like Spiller could be a good sell high. He played well and FJackson got hurt and so many people are whining that they are thin at RB. The Spiller owner probably drafted Spiller as his RB3 or RB4 and could probably move him to someone who thinks he will be a top 5 RB (and thus command a really good WR / QB / TE). He might be really good this year or he could be this years J.Best. If you don't get the knock your socks off offer, keep him and play him as your flex. He will be really good in a PPR and very solid in a non ppr.

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Some other names:

Fred Davis - RG3 threw for over 300 yards. Davis had 4 targets and 38 yards.

Victor Cruz - only 58 yards...but 11 targets!

DeSean Jackson - 77 yards and another 10 on a rush. Vick threw his way 11 times. Granted they threw 56 times but Reid appears to hate running the football. Even with Haden hanging on DeSean, he had a solid game.

Randy Moss - was hardly on the field. But when he was out there he received love in the red zone. Not sure what to make of this one.

Colby Fleener - 10 targets, 6 catches, 82 yards. Could be a very solid buy high.

Vincent Jackson - clearly Freeman's top option. 10 targets (more than twice any other wr). Only caught 4 for 47. But Carolina isn't a great defense so it's disheartening to see such a poor performance.

Mark Sanchez - buy high? I don't believe he's very good but he was top 10 last year and yesterday was an impressive performance.

Michael Turner - sell low? He'll surely still have some big games but if week one and the preseason is any indication, this team is going through the air and Turner will get table scraps.

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From your first post you consider Morris to be a #1 rb but wouldn't feel comfortable starting him every week? Looking at Shannahan's history, he's generally gone with one guy until that player gets hurt. And rb's with scrambling qb's often have better results than typical stand in the pocket guys.

I said Morris's PPG's upside is RB1. I know, barring injury, that Richardson will start every game from here on out. I can't say that about Morris, yet. I am not selling Morris, but I am not giving Richardson for him yet, either.
Fair point. There's a lot of value in knowing Richardson will be the man in Cleveland every single week. :thumbup:
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Hillis and Ingram are guys worth testing the water. I'd agree with Sidney Rice but his TD probably endeared him to his owners. Not sure what you'd have to give up to get him.

Ryan Williams might have some worth as he was fairly invovled in the passing game from what I saw of the first half. Seattle's defense is pretty good, so while Arizona's poor o-line limits the running game upside, the Arizona running backs probably won't be cheaper than they are now.

It's not a buy low, but I'd sell high anybody I could to try to get Ryan Mathews.

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I think Sanchez is a solid Buy. He was top 10 last year and looked quite good yesterday against a Bills D many were high on before the season.

The problem with Sanchez isn't is end of the year totals, it's that he goes from 35pts one week to 11 pts the next. Extremely volatile and inconsistent.

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I'd be trying to buy Russell Wilson. Some owners who grabbed him in the hype storm might be panicking and willing to offload for reduced values. Wilson had a poor showing overall and less than what I expected, but I trust him to figure it out. A lot of his accuracy issues seemed to have more to do with timing vs. pressure than anything else, which you can only get down with time. I'd say with time that him and Rice will be making beautiful fantasy point totals together.

ETA: this is geared more toward dynasty.

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Buy Sidney Rice.Looked good yesterday against a very physical corner in Patrick Peterson. As Russell Wilson matures, Rice will be the beneficiary.

I didn't get to see the game but own Rice in every league. Could you give a little more info? What did you see out of Rice? Was he getting separation from Peterson?
He looked really good. He battled with Peterson, when he had to - using his hands and body positioning. He made a great touchdown grab, and almost had another one, though it would have been a ridiculous catch. He still has some of the best body control in the NFL. Lets just hope he can stay on the field this year. He still has the talent, though he looks to be 90% of what he once was.
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I actually think a guy like Spiller could be a good sell high. He played well and FJackson got hurt and so many people are whining that they are thin at RB. The Spiller owner probably drafted Spiller as his RB3 or RB4 and could probably move him to someone who thinks he will be a top 5 RB (and thus command a really good WR / QB / TE). He might be really good this year or he could be this years J.Best. If you don't get the knock your socks off offer, keep him and play him as your flex. He will be really good in a PPR and very solid in a non ppr.

I was kind of thinking the same. I'm considering going to the F Jackson owner to see what he's thinking.
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I'd be trying to buy Russell Wilson. Some owners who grabbed him in the hype storm might be panicking and willing to offload for reduced values. Wilson had a poor showing overall and less than what I expected, but I trust him to figure it out. A lot of his accuracy issues seemed to have more to do with timing vs. pressure than anything else, which you can only get down with time. I'd say with time that him and Rice will be making beautiful fantasy point totals together.

ETA: this is geared more toward dynasty.

Just to be clear, I've been talking about redraft. Nothing wrong with dynasty values but we should be clear as values can vary a great deal. ie in my dynasty I'm not selling Richardson or Russ. In redraft I'm shopping Richardson and considering dumping Russ.
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Sell

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CJ4ypg - I didn't think he'd return to form and his 11 carries 4 yard performance seems to put that into a concrete position. Sure he'll have big games this season, but counting on him game to game? No way I want anything to do with this, I'd rather play the WAS Rb lottery.

Cam - I think you can still get a lot for him as most people are saying "It was one bad game". I'm still of the opinion that he slipped a lot last season. He went from 30.51 ppg average (25yds passing 4pt TDs) in the first 7 games to 18.7 ppg average in the last 10 games. Sure, it's still good but not this elite QB1 that everyone drafted. Simple fact is Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, Brady, Manning, Romo all out produced Cam in the last 10 games last season on a PPG average in the same standard scoring setting. That will probably happen again this year just on a season wide outlook. Cam simply isn't going to run for 14 TDs again. If you even take 2 away two of those TDs from Cam's last 10 games he was a low-end Top 10 play at best.

Hold

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Mark Ingram - That was a rough game, it got out of the Saints hands fast and they didn't run the ball much at all. Hell, Sproles had like 0.1 points in most leagues till the final quarter of the game. I still like Ingram's chances this year. People are freaking out as if he went 6 for 15 and Pierre Thomas shot off for 20 and 100. This didn't happen, they both saw single digit touches, Thomas saw 4 and Ingram 6.

Trent Richardson - Honestly, who knows. It's too early to sell though I think. This is probably the most likely sell out of my holds past Ingram. Weeden looked down right horrendous, Philly just their whole team in the box whenever T Rich was out on the field and pretty much shut down the whole game plan. This could change possibly, but with 6 games against 6 of the best run D's in football ahead of him he may be another bust at rookie RB. I still think it's a wait and hold situation for another two weeks as he could blow up, he has the talent I don't think that's up for debate.

Buy/Hold

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Pierre Garcon - Think about this... he had 4 Rec for 109 yds and 1 TD in the first quarter. RG3 looked at him on every pass. If he didn't get hurt this could have very well been a 200yd 2td game.

C.J. Spiller - I think you need to hold him until the injury situation with Jackson is more sorted. If Jackson is going to miss more than like 3-4 weeks Spiller could blow up and end up spelling Jackson. He blew up enough in this game after Jackson did next to nothing with his 6 carries.

Alfred Morris - Someone posted a note somewhere else in the Shark Pool like 2 days ago with a real breakdown of how Shannhan picks his RBs. They essentially proved that the only time he actually gives the position to someone else is after a god awful performance or injury. Neither of which happened to Morris. Morris could very well be this years Gary, Bell, Davis type for this offense and with a QB like RG3 behind center I love the type of running game he could potentially open up. If Morris is the guy all season I expect low end RB1 numbers.

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Im gonna throw J Finley into the sell bag. Might get decent value with the TD but everything I saw from him yesterday said that the guy is going to see less targets, get himself hurt, get himself in trouble or all. Drop balls, on field shenanigans after every play. Dude's physically gifted but that's it. GB has too many weapons and I can't see Aaron looking his direction frequently from that performance.

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Chris Johnson - He is not CJ2K anymore, if feel comfortable saying that. That said, I think he is an RB1. Buy.

Unless you believe he's due for a big turnaround, I don't see the point in buying. Someone that drafted him at 1.06 isn't going to just turn around and deal him for a WW wide receiver after one week. They're going to cling to wanting 1st round value for the guy for at least a month.What kind of player would you be willing to give up, that you believe a CJ would accept, that you think would make a good trade?
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Buy low- Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Peyton HillisSell High- Alfred Morris and Mark Sanchez

Reggie Wayne a buy low? I guess their owner must have missed the Ind / Chi game.
Yes I said buy low. It was already low to begin with. He was drafted as a WR3 or WR4. You might be better off waiting until Collie comes back next week before you pull the trigger on this one though. As far as Garcon goes, I stated this because he is hurt to some degree.
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Chris Johnson - He is not CJ2K anymore, if feel comfortable saying that. That said, I think he is an RB1. Buy.

Unless you believe he's due for a big turnaround, I don't see the point in buying. Someone that drafted him at 1.06 isn't going to just turn around and deal him for a WW wide receiver after one week. They're going to cling to wanting 1st round value for the guy for at least a month.What kind of player would you be willing to give up, that you believe a CJ would accept, that you think would make a good trade?
Morris, Spiller, J. Charles, Ridley.
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Im gonna throw J Finley into the sell bag. Might get decent value with the TD but everything I saw from him yesterday said that the guy is going to see less targets, get himself hurt, get himself in trouble or all. Drop balls, on field shenanigans after every play. Dude's physically gifted but that's it. GB has too many weapons and I can't see Aaron looking his direction frequently from that performance.

meh this guy will finish a top 5 TE by accident just like last year.
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Chris Johnson - He is not CJ2K anymore, if feel comfortable saying that. That said, I think he is an RB1. Buy.

Unless you believe he's due for a big turnaround, I don't see the point in buying. Someone that drafted him at 1.06 isn't going to just turn around and deal him for a WW wide receiver after one week. They're going to cling to wanting 1st round value for the guy for at least a month.What kind of player would you be willing to give up, that you believe a CJ would accept, that you think would make a good trade?
Morris, Spiller, J. Charles, Ridley.
Nobody is gonna give up CJ1K for Morris or Spiller yet.
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Buy Sidney Rice.Looked good yesterday against a very physical corner in Patrick Peterson. As Russell Wilson matures, Rice will be the beneficiary.

I didn't get to see the game but own Rice in every league. Could you give a little more info? What did you see out of Rice? Was he getting separation from Peterson?
He looked really good. He battled with Peterson, when he had to - using his hands and body positioning. He made a great touchdown grab, and almost had another one, though it would have been a ridiculous catch. He still has some of the best body control in the NFL. Lets just hope he can stay on the field this year. He still has the talent, though he looks to be 90% of what he once was.
Yeah, I think Rice is a good buy. As the game unfolded, it became clear he's Wilson's go-to guy. And that was before Baldwin and Braylon both dropped game-winning TDs. The upside might be a bit limited, unless SEA wants to open things up, but Rice should be pretty good.
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Buy low- Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Peyton HillisSell High- Alfred Morris and Mark Sanchez

Reggie Wayne a buy low? I guess their owner must have missed the Ind / Chi game.
Yes I said buy low. It was already low to begin with. He was drafted as a WR3 or WR4. You might be better off waiting until Collie comes back next week before you pull the trigger on this one though. As far as Garcon goes, I stated this because he is hurt to some degree.
9/135 on 18 targetswhat exactly do you plan on getting him for?
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Newton had a 20 yard run called back, 2 goal line carries that he usually converts at a 50+% rate, NO help from the running game, only one WR making plays, and still looked like a GREAT QB, on all but 3-5 throws. People are so ready to dismiss him, and I think they are wrong in doing so.

You think no other qb had some calls/plays go against them? Folks are dismissing him in general, I think they're questioning whether he should have been taken as the #5 qb. Right now in redrafts would you sell Matt Ryan for him? Tony Romo? Peyton? (I'd sell Romo/Peyton for Cam but not Ryan).I'm still high on Cam. But I realize it's possible we were slightly too high on the guy. In fairness I am trying to buy Cam just in case his value has dropped more in his owner's eyes than he dropped in mine.
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dynasty

Buy morris - too many people are still convinced he will loose the job in a few weeks. it may happen but it may not. his value isn't reflecting the chance he keeps the job

B we have 5 days to buy low richardson. i dont think his value will ever be this low until 2016

Buy low on locker. i still think he is a potential top 10 ff qb. i think what we saw was a great defense and not so much a bad qb

Sell kevin smith. i just don't trust him to stay healthy. as soon as he gets hurt, his value plummets

Sell ridley. i dont see his value getting any higher than it is now. ever. so at best, his value stays where it is. at worst, he disappears for a few games within the big 4 and possibly vereen.

Sell forte - i dont trust an rb1 that will get 5 td's on the season. i think he has a few 7 point games coming up this season. he looks like a top 5 rb right now so i would sell

Buy mercede lewis - back to his 2010 form. very safe buy. if possible, i would trade my finley or pettigrew for lewis and an upgrade

Sell - sidney. looked good, will get hurt

Buy wilson - hype wore off. now is the time to get him if you couldn't before. not sure how good he will be but the upside is worth the price, imo

Buy roster/helu i think alfred will hold the job, but these guys are pretty cheap right now. if you don't believe in alfred, you should be buying these guys right now

Buy britt - the last few weeks could not have gone better for him. now with washington hurt and cj4 stinking it up, he should be force fed numbers

redraft

B welker - with so many weapons, there will always be 1-2 guys left out of the mix. welker will be back next week along with a 2 catch game from one of the other 3

B cj4 - hate him but you have to buy here. it will be tough for his value to drop any lower

Sell wayne - 18 targets my a##. i expect collie to steal most of those when he comes back and buy time for those rookies to develop and command more targets later in the year

Hold - no one. it's almost impossible to value a player the exact same as your league does. you either like a guy more or less than what his value will commend. 'hold' does not exist

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Newton had a 20 yard run called back, 2 goal line carries that he usually converts at a 50+% rate, NO help from the running game, only one WR making plays, and still looked like a GREAT QB, on all but 3-5 throws. People are so ready to dismiss him, and I think they are wrong in doing so.

You think no other qb had some calls/plays go against them? Folks are dismissing him in general, I think they're questioning whether he should have been taken as the #5 qb. Right now in redrafts would you sell Matt Ryan for him? Tony Romo? Peyton? (I'd sell Romo/Peyton for Cam but not Ryan).I'm still high on Cam. But I realize it's possible we were slightly too high on the guy. In fairness I am trying to buy Cam just in case his value has dropped more in his owner's eyes than he dropped in mine.
I would be very happy if I could move Romo or Peyton for him. I think I would trade Ryan for him too. In 4 pt, .04 per yard, he is still top 4, ahead of Stafford. His yard per attempt number is very high still, as it was last year, which is a very good sign. He looked really good, on all but 3-5 throws, all things considered. The running game, which was the best in the NFL, gave him nothing. They were throwing away early downs, then turning to Cam on 3rd and 8s. I can understand why he started forcing a few throws. Again, all things considered, watching the game, there was nothing there to suggest Cam isn't the same guy he was last year. He looked good. The biggest sign, if you take nothing else from the game, was the goal line carries.
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