JPeso
Footballguy
That explains it
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CJ spiller value (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Nickdi
- Start date
I live in the ny upstate area and have been forced to watch the Bills. I drafted Spiller as a rookie, so I have paid attention to him. When he first started out he looked a little lost. But he broke a big play here and there, you could tell the talent was there, Something last year finally clicked and he looks to be elite, if you can get him, do it now. I think he can be top 3 for the next 4 yrs.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
x take that all day. charles straight u for spiller is a steal. lance moore too is just gravy.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
martin will outscore spiller over the next 6 weeks
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I would bet heavily on the Spiller side over the next 6 weeks.
matttyl
Footballguy
As would I.
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
I got offered Dwyer, didn't even bother responding.
He then switched to Luck (I have Rodgers).
He then switched to Luck (I have Rodgers).
JPeso
Footballguy
Me three.
I would think that Spiller has been on the fringe of greatness long enough where ownership has settled, in most leagues, with the owners that value him the most highly and have been patient. As such, I would anticipate that his value on the market (for anyone looking to acquire him) has already adjusted after Week 1 in the 6-10 range. I am with you though that he is Top 5. I too see McCoy and Julio as a wash, with the edge going to Julio (still probably/maybe my WR2 (instead of WR1), but #2 player overall). One other indication of this deal being "cheap" (fair, but cheap) is that Spiller wasn't even the best player on his side of the deal. The deal was REALLY about acquiring Julio, not Spiller.
I see this a lot about no margin for error at top 5. Very few players have any margin for error at #5, and that is usually the #1, #2, #3 and #4 players. You have to put someone at #5, and if you'd rather have Spiller over the other remaining RBs after the top 4, then you treat Spiller as the #5. Spiller imo has as much upside as anyone after the top 4 (or anyone in the top 4 for that matter) and all of the RBs after the top 4 have equal or greater downside, so #5 is about right for me. This is not to say that market is at top 5, yet, so getting him at RB7-RB10 value would present an opportunity for profit which will be realized in the near future.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The more you pay on top of market value, the less margin for error there is. If you're wrong - and we all are, a lot - you surrendered massive value. Nobody's hit rate is anything close to 100%, and smart owners realize that, and act accordingly. If you pay for Spiller like he is top 5, here are your scenerios:1. You are right: Spiller is worth what you paid for him; even trade.2. You are wrong: Spiller is not worth what you paid for him; you lose.
I am not advocating paying top 5 right now if his market value is much lower (which I dont think it is). I am "ranking" him in the top 5. I think JPeso was saying the same thing (at least thats how I interpreted him saying that market was much lower but that he is actually top 5). As for what you pay for him, IF you can get him for less than RB5, there is good potential for profit imo. As for paying RB5 value, paying that much for any RB will leave you with little to no margin for error (unless, again, he is actually the #1, #2, #3 or #4 back). How is that different from paying RB1 value for the RB1? Is there any margin for error buying the best RB at RB1 value? There are also two scenarios, you get what you paid for him (even trade) or the RB is not worth what you paid (you lose). This is always the case if you pay actual value for any of the top RBs.
The great thing about Spiller right now is that even after the week 1 performance and the FJax injury and even though Spiller has likely already fallen into the hands of the owner that highly values him, there is still a range of about RB6-RB12 that you may be able to acquire him and still make a profit in the short to medium term once the market catches up (e.g., if youre in a league where you can still get Spiller for Jamaal Charles or, as per this thread, Doug Martin).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The top RBs are nearly untradeable, and for good reason. So you are right: it is very hard to win a trade in which you receive a top 3 RB, assuming you are trading with a competent owner. As for what the difference is - the top RB doesn't have nearly the amount of question marks that CJ Spiller has, and the top RBs value is less fluid and prone to drop at bad news. People are not placing enough emphasis on the fact that Jackson was the starter AFTER Spiller's great 6 game run. He will surely be a solid contributer, but unlike the top 8 (or so) RBs, we don't know how much of a workload Spiller is going to have in a little over a month.
Possibly true, but there are not 5 RBs that get the untradeable designation (general consensus is 4 I believe, although I would differ with that as well – but that’s another conversation). After the consensus top 4, all RBs have their question marks imo – could be mileage for some (ADP), workload for others (Spiller), injury proneness (McFadden), etc.If people are not placing enough emphasis that FJax was the starter (he was at one time the top RB in 2011 after all), then they are making that mistake only in a redraft context, not dynasty. For dynasty, whether the Bills coaches elect to go committee when FJax returns is of little consequence to me in ranking Spiller in the top 5. Sooner or later (Fjax is getting long in the tooth), Spiller WILL take over as the unquestioned #1. The short term uncertainty is what presents the potential buying opportunity. Once Spiller becomes the unquestioned #1, he will join the group of nearly untradeables.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Taking any more action?
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
So a large percentage of this this thread thinks that spiller is now a rb5. Unreal.
And I like spiller, but the groupthink at wok here is out of control...
And I like spiller, but the groupthink at wok here is out of control...
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
If spiller was on the cowboys and backed up by Felix Jones then he might be top 5.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Top 5 over the next 6 weeks and top 5 in dynasty. I don't know that anyone is saying they think Spiller is top 5 for the rest of this year.I don't think those are outrageous at all. He was the highest scoring RB in the league from Week 12-17 when he took over in Buffalo. He was the highest scoring RB in the league last week despite getting only 14 attempts.
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
A large percentage of this thread drafted Spiller because they already liked him and anticipated this best-case scenario, the absence of F-Jax.I'm thinking shorter term, like 3-4 weeks, but he's definitely in my top 8 now.
well, id take murray over spiller.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Nope, had him around there even before last week.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
After watching the replays against NYJ again, I've decided these are the ONLY RBs I'd rather have than him if he has a stranglehold on the starting gig for the entire season..
Foster
McCoy
Rice
DMC
Murray
Adrian Peterson
Foster
McCoy
Rice
DMC
Murray
Adrian Peterson
smapdi
Footballguy
I agree with everyone except Peterson and Murray. AP's knee just scares me too much. I know he had 2 TD's last week but I feel like he is one hit away from getting his knee torn off. I feel like Spiller will out produce Murray if Spiller maintains a stranglehold on the job as you lay out. Spiller is the more explosive of the two and picked apart a very good Jets defense to lead league in rushing. Anyone that has actually watched the Bills last 5 games are very high on Spiller. I suspect the doubters have only seen the Bills for 10 seconds on ESPN and that is the extent of it. He is just the total package now. He improved on every flaw in his game and is one of the most athletic (4.32 40 yard dash) offensive players in the league. There is a reason he had 51 TD's at Clemson; the kid knows how to hit pay dirt
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Except I'd add Richardson since we're talking dynasty.
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Here here!!!
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I think we're at that point now.Spiller has a history of being stellar when FJAX has been out, so if he continues, the added value he gets from having phenomenal games over the next few weeks is marginal.
It's the unknown factors right now that amp the value -- and hype -- now. Spiller may actually have a stinker of a game against the Chiefs, which deflates his value entirely. At this point, even a "good" day by NFL standards and a mediocre day fantasy-wise kills value, even if he follows up with a great game against the Browns -- will get the "Which Spiller will show up this week?" talk going.
We also have the most uncertainty about FJAX's return right now. If next week we hear FJAX is progressing in rehab, it will be just one more week closer to when he returns, killing CJ's value IMHO. CJ will have a place on the offence, but can't see it any other way than FJAX being the starter in Buffalo this year when he returns.
So now is the time to sell on the hype when there are so many unknown variables. The more time goes by, the more these variables become known, and the greater the probability that this value decreases.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
I remember when people were all over me for having Spiller #10 in dynasty a year ago... O how times have changed.. now the consensus values him higher than I do, strange strange strange 
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Mr. Coffee
Footballguy
I just offered someone Drew Brees and Santonio Holmes for Spiller and Matt Shaub (I also have Cam Newton).
Dynasty league.
Is this insane?
Fred Jackson is 31. I don't see him even retaking the starting role this year....if Spiller goes off like many of us think he will.
Dynasty league.
Is this insane?
Fred Jackson is 31. I don't see him even retaking the starting role this year....if Spiller goes off like many of us think he will.
Mr. Coffee
Footballguy
Can I be in your league?
Spiller's not getting much respect in my redraft leagues as of today. I agree that there is a risk of waiting another week because he could have a bad game (even Aaron Rodgers has bad games occasionally), but I'm not trying to deal him yet.
There is a realistic chance that Spiller has a good game AND the new MRI for FJax is not favorable, which will lead to a real spike in Spiller's value. Our own Jene Bramel predicts that Jackson won't be back until week 9: bramelsecondopinion.com
This thread is not really an indication that the hype is out of control on Spiller. It shows that his owners aren't willing to give up on his legit RB1 potential. No one in any of my 10 leagues has actually paid RB1 prices for him. I haven't seen him traded at all yet.
There is a realistic chance that Spiller has a good game AND the new MRI for FJax is not favorable, which will lead to a real spike in Spiller's value. Our own Jene Bramel predicts that Jackson won't be back until week 9: bramelsecondopinion.com
This thread is not really an indication that the hype is out of control on Spiller. It shows that his owners aren't willing to give up on his legit RB1 potential. No one in any of my 10 leagues has actually paid RB1 prices for him. I haven't seen him traded at all yet.
JPeso
Footballguy
Don't remember seeing that a "year" ago. When you guys launched, which wasn't a year ago I don't think, he was around 20 for you and much lower for your partner, IIRC. You actually just had bumped him down to 13-14 range before the injury as well based on a light pre-season I assume. Do you own him on your squads?I remember when people were all over me for having Spiller #10 in dynasty a year ago... O how times have changed.. now the consensus values him higher than I do, strange strange strange
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
U got worked
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
U REALLY got worked
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
U REALLY got worked
Team ROFLCOPTERS
Footballguy
I think he'll hold on to 60% of the snaps at least upon Jackson's return. That's valuable in my eyes. Considering trading Bradshaw in order to aquire Spiller.
What do you mean? Gerhart is a stud. Spiller's a flash in the pan.Seriously, it was a ridiculous counter and just goes to show, which should be obvious, that some don't view Spiller as anything more than an injury-replacement backup still.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=591560&st=0check the second post and read the break downDon't remember seeing that a "year" ago. When you guys launched, which wasn't a year ago I don't think, he was around 20 for you and much lower for your partner, IIRC. You actually just had bumped him down to 13-14 range before the injury as well based on a light pre-season I assume. Do you own him on your squads?I remember when people were all over me for having Spiller #10 in dynasty a year ago... O how times have changed.. now the consensus values him higher than I do, strange strange strange
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
http://football27.myfantasyleague.com/2011/options?L=74696&O=173.6 in a 14 team start up dynasty in february
I own him in one of my dynasties now and I had him in two.I traded him for Jamaal Charles straight up a month before the season started in one of themthe other dynasty the guy already valued him as a top 8 guy( more than what I think he is)
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I still had 4 other good starting workhorses. Traded another for Fitz. Can only start 2 RBs and needed WR help badly in a start 4 WR mostly TD league. Pretty excited to have Fitz and Julio while still having a solid stable of 3 RBs to rotate with.'Hipple said:
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wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
.... at least you can vouch for me loland no... Spiller for Charles isn't a total loss, but I think it's pretty clear at this point that Spiller has a very bright future.
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