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Kickers (1 Viewer)

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Footballguy
I recently scrolled through some kicker data and found something intriguing.

Fairly consistently over the last five years, after three weeks kickers ranked 6-10 have outperformed kickers ranked 1-5 for weeks four through 17.

[*]Over the last five years, the average ranking in points in weeks four through seventeen for kickers in the top 5 after three weeks was 16.0. (ETA: This means, surprisingly, that top five kickers after three weeks are basically league average the rest of the way--and league average from a kicker is usually poor output in all but 32 team FF leagues.)

[*]Over the last five years, the average ranking in points in weeks four through seventeen for kickers in the top 10 after three weeks was 14.5.

[*]Over the last five years, the average ranking in points in weeks four through seventeen for kickers ranked 6-10 after three weeks was 12.9.

[*]Only 12% of kickers ranked 1-5 after three weeks finished in the top 5 for the remainder of the season. But 32% of kickers ranked 6-10 after three weeks were top 5 kickers the rest of the way.

[*]Only 36% of top 5 kickers after three weeks were top 10 kickers the rest of the way. But 53% of kickers ranked 6-10 after three weeks were top 10 kickers the rest of the way. (ETA: That means over half of the kickers that finish in the top 10 weeks 4 through 17 in the last five seasons were found in the 6-10 range after three weeks, while just over 1/3 kickers in the top five performed as top ten kickers the rest of the way.)

[*]In only one season did kickers ranked 1-5 after three weeks have a higher "average ranking" for the remainder of the season than kickers ranked 6-10. And even in that season, kickers 6-10 still produced as many top 5 kickers the rest of the way as kickers initially ranked 1-5.

This is crude data and doesn't account for early bye weeks (which I think were in effect in at least a couple of the years) and injuries. But I think it's enough for me to conclude that if your kicker is top 5 right now, there's a good chance he's already shot his load and won't be a top 5 kicker the rest of the way. If you're targeting a top five kicker the rest of the way, you may want to look at kickers outside of the top five.

I didn't run any regressions to see if there's a true inverse correlation between early season kicker ranking and rest of the way numbers, but it would be interesting to see. I also didn't look at any kickers outside of the top ten after three weeks...

Here are my numbers if you're interested:

Year - # in top 5 Rest of Season - # in top 10 Rest of Season - Highest Ranked Kicker Rest of Season - Ave Ranking Rest of Season

2011:

Top 5: 0 - 1 - 9 - 16.8

Top 6-10: 3 - 4 - 1 - 8.6

2010

Top 5: 1 - 2 - 2 - 15.6

Top 6-10: 1 - 2 - 3 - 13.6

2009

Top 5: 2 - 4 - 1 - 10.6

Top 6-10: 2 - 3 - 2 - 14.8

2008

Top 5: 0 - 1 - 7 - 16.6

Top 6-10: 1 - 3 - 2 - 10.8

2007

Top 5: 0 - 1 - 9 - 20.2

Top 6-10: 1 - 1 - 2 - 17.0

(ETA: Totals and scoring system)

Totals

Top 5:

Top 5 Rest of Way: 3

Top 10 Rest of Way: 9

Top 6-10:

Top 5 Rest of Way: 8

Top 10 Rest of Way: 13

This is based on 3 pts per FG and 1 pt per XP.

 
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'strong said:
But I think it's enough for me to conclude that if your kicker is top 5 right now, there's a good chance he's already shot his load and won't be a top 5 kicker the rest of the way.
Click to expand...
Ah yes, the old "my kicker shot his load" dilemma.
 
using logic and this neat information to come up with an explanation:

good offensive teams that begin the season struggling in the redzone (1-5 ranked kickers in 3 weeks) will tend to improve over time, which lessens their kickers output.

good offenses that overachieve in the redzone early on (6-10 ranked kickers in 3 weeks) will tend to regress back to the mean which increases the output of their kickers.

 
'aruv said:
'strong said:
But I think it's enough for me to conclude that if your kicker is top 5 right now, there's a good chance he's already shot his load and won't be a top 5 kicker the rest of the way.
Click to expand...
Ah yes, the old "my kicker shot his load" dilemma.
Click to expand...
he'll need a few weeks to recover. unless he's privy to advanced techniques that ensure continual performance.
 
'strong said:
I recently scrolled through some kicker data and found something intriguing.

Fairly consistently over the last five years, after three weeks kickers ranked 6-10 have outperformed kickers ranked 1-5 for weeks four through 17.

[*]Over the last five years, the average ranking in points in weeks four through seventeen for kickers in the top 5 after three weeks was 16.0.

[*]Over the last five years, the average ranking in points in weeks four through seventeen for kickers in the top 10 after three weeks was 14.5.
Click to expand...
:confused: Does not compute.

Edit: Wait...what does "ranking in points" mean? As in their ranking by fantasy points? So the average top 10 kickers all fall under top 12? That seems odd to me.

 
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'flc735 said:
using logic and this neat information to come up with an explanation:good offensive teams that begin the season struggling in the redzone (1-5 ranked kickers in 3 weeks) will tend to improve over time, which lessens their kickers output.good offenses that overachieve in the redzone early on (6-10 ranked kickers in 3 weeks) will tend to regress back to the mean which increases the output of their kickers.
Click to expand...
This could be right. I think Tynes is an interesting player to look at. He's crushing it right now, but last year on a very good (and similar) offense he finished 24th. The Giants just didn't attempt that many field goals last year--he's already attempted 10 when he only kicked 24 all of last season. There's not much difference in the Giants offense from this season to last, and I don't see any reason they'll continue to struggle to score touchdowns. If you've been playing Tynes, you've probably already scored 1/3 of his overall output this year.
 
'Mr. Soup Nazi said:
'strong said:
I recently scrolled through some kicker data and found something intriguing.

Fairly consistently over the last five years, after three weeks kickers ranked 6-10 have outperformed kickers ranked 1-5 for weeks four through 17.

[*]Over the last five years, the average ranking in points in weeks four through seventeen for kickers in the top 5 after three weeks was 16.0.

[*]Over the last five years, the average ranking in points in weeks four through seventeen for kickers in the top 10 after three weeks was 14.5.
Click to expand...
:confused: Does not compute.

Edit: Wait...what does "ranking in points" mean? As in their ranking by fantasy points? So the average top 10 kickers all fall under top 12? That seems odd to me.
Click to expand...
Yes. It was odd to me too. But kickers off to hot starts tend not to produce at a high level the rest of the way.

If you merely look at end of the season numbers, I doubt you'll find such a strange disparity. But after you discard the early season points, you'll find those kickers usually don't put up top ten numbers the rest of the way. Or put another way: a top five start after three weeks is not in any way a good predictor of future success in weeks 4 through 17. In fact, this data suggests top five kickers after three weeks are merely league average the rest of the way.

 
'Mr. Soup Nazi said:
Edit: Wait...what does "ranking in points" mean? As in their ranking by fantasy points? So the average top 10 kickers all fall under top 12? That seems odd to me.
Click to expand...
Ranking in points simply means the kicker's FF Ranking in overall points. And yeah, top ten kickers after three weeks on average are not top ten kickers the rest of the way. But kickers ranked 6-10 in points after three weeks tend to outperform the rest of the season those ranked ahead of them. Like I mentioned in the overall post, byes and injuries may play a part in this, but I don't think accounting for them would change the results that much.

 
strong - Is this data based just on NFL scoring of 3 pts per FG and 1 for XP?

Because if FG are given extra points for length of the FG (most popular being .1 for each yard past 30) then I doubt that the drop will hold true this year.

 
'strong said:
'aruv said:
'strong said:
But I think it's enough for me to conclude that if your kicker is top 5 right now, there's a good chance he's already shot his load and won't be a top 5 kicker the rest of the way.
Click to expand...
Ah yes, the old "my kicker shot his load" dilemma.
Click to expand...
he'll need a few weeks to recover. unless he's privy to advanced techniques that ensure continual performance.
Click to expand...
The refractory period for kicker is quite long. Must be the tight pants with no pads.
 
'Captain Hook said:
strong - Is this data based just on NFL scoring of 3 pts per FG and 1 for XP?Because if FG are given extra points for length of the FG (most popular being .1 for each yard past 30) then I doubt that the drop will hold true this year.
Click to expand...
Yes. I should have clarified--this is based on my league scoring system which is simply 3 pts per FG and 1 pt per XP.
 
'strong said:
I recently scrolled through some kicker data and found something intriguing.

Fairly consistently over the last five years, after three weeks kickers ranked 6-10 have outperformed kickers ranked 1-5 for weeks four through 17.

[*]Over the last five years, the average ranking in points in weeks four through seventeen for kickers in the top 5 after three weeks was 16.0. (ETA: This means, surprisingly, that top five kickers after three weeks are basically league average the rest of the way--and league average from a kicker is usually poor output in all but 32 team FF leagues.)

[*]Over the last five years, the average ranking in points in weeks four through seventeen for kickers in the top 10 after three weeks was 14.5.

[*]Over the last five years, the average ranking in points in weeks four through seventeen for kickers ranked 6-10 after three weeks was 12.9.

[*]Only 12% of kickers ranked 1-5 after three weeks finished in the top 5 for the remainder of the season. But 32% of kickers ranked 6-10 after three weeks were top 5 kickers the rest of the way.

[*]Only 36% of top 5 kickers after three weeks were top 10 kickers the rest of the way. But 53% of kickers ranked 6-10 after three weeks were top 10 kickers the rest of the way. (ETA: That means over half of the kickers that finish in the top 10 weeks 4 through 17 in the last five seasons were found in the 6-10 range after three weeks, while just over 1/3 kickers in the top five performed as top ten kickers the rest of the way.)

[*]In only one season did kickers ranked 1-5 after three weeks have a higher "average ranking" for the remainder of the season than kickers ranked 6-10. And even in that season, kickers 6-10 still produced as many top 5 kickers the rest of the way as kickers initially ranked 1-5.

This is crude data and doesn't account for early bye weeks (which I think were in effect in at least a couple of the years) and injuries. But I think it's enough for me to conclude that if your kicker is top 5 right now, there's a good chance he's already shot his load and won't be a top 5 kicker the rest of the way. If you're targeting a top five kicker the rest of the way, you may want to look at kickers outside of the top five.

I didn't run any regressions to see if there's a true inverse correlation between early season kicker ranking and rest of the way numbers, but it would be interesting to see. I also didn't look at any kickers outside of the top ten after three weeks...

Here are my numbers if you're interested:

Year - # in top 5 Rest of Season - # in top 10 Rest of Season - Highest Ranked Kicker Rest of Season - Ave Ranking Rest of Season

2011:

Top 5: 0 - 1 - 9 - 16.8

Top 6-10: 3 - 4 - 1 - 8.6

2010

Top 5: 1 - 2 - 2 - 15.6

Top 6-10: 1 - 2 - 3 - 13.6

2009

Top 5: 2 - 4 - 1 - 10.6

Top 6-10: 2 - 3 - 2 - 14.8

2008

Top 5: 0 - 1 - 7 - 16.6

Top 6-10: 1 - 3 - 2 - 10.8

2007

Top 5: 0 - 1 - 9 - 20.2

Top 6-10: 1 - 1 - 2 - 17.0

(ETA: Totals and scoring system)

Totals

Top 5:

Top 5 Rest of Way: 3

Top 10 Rest of Way: 9

Top 6-10:

Top 5 Rest of Way: 8

Top 10 Rest of Way: 13

This is based on 3 pts per FG and 1 pt per XP.
Click to expand...
So is there any underlying theory why this is true other than the idea that good kicking performances early predict mediocre ones later? Because I am not buying this one. I will buy that kicking is just so volatile that good early performances are not indicative of good future performances - but that doesn't really lead to 6-10 being special either. Most likely a case of overfitting data here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting

 
'cdubz said:
So is there any underlying theory why this is true other than the idea that good kicking performances early predict mediocre ones later? Because I am not buying this one. I will buy that kicking is just so volatile that good early performances are not indicative of good future performances - but that doesn't really lead to 6-10 being special either.

Most likely a case of overfitting data here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting
Click to expand...
You may be right. I agree it's weak, initial data that can be overly influenced by minor variations. Lumping the kickers into "top 5" and "top 6-10" categories is also problematic. But flc had a good point up above and may be on to something...

Running regressions may prove more effective than my crude lumping and averaging analysis... but that's all i had time to do today after I got curious when looking at last year's numbers.

 
'cdubz said:
So is there any underlying theory why this is true other than the idea that good kicking performances early predict mediocre ones later? Because I am not buying this one. I will buy that kicking is just so volatile that good early performances are not indicative of good future performances - but that doesn't really lead to 6-10 being special either.
Click to expand...
Perhaps good early performances are indicative of a lucky 3-weeks span of matchups vs. opponents that allow a lot of kicking opportunities/games in Denver/domes/etc. Perhaps the pool of kickers is average, and the average guys with the best early matchups bubble up to the top quick and then return to average, while guys who have faced tougher opposition and rougher opportunities catch up later when they get to play more dome games/Denver games/etc.
 
'flc735 said:
using logic and this neat information to come up with an explanation:good offensive teams that begin the season struggling in the redzone (1-5 ranked kickers in 3 weeks) will tend to improve over time, which lessens their kickers output.good offenses that overachieve in the redzone early on (6-10 ranked kickers in 3 weeks) will tend to regress back to the mean which increases the output of their kickers.
Click to expand...
This was the thought that crossed my mind. I drafted Gostkowski, & think he's a great example of this being a partial explanation, at least in his case. I drafted him b/c all I wanted was some consistency...figured he'd kick plenty of PATs. I NEVER imagined the Pats would be stalling near the RZ so often. But...I figure the gravy train is about over as I expect the Pats to start scoring TDs rather than kicking FGs.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'aruv said:
'strong said:
'aruv said:
'strong said:
But I think it's enough for me to conclude that if your kicker is top 5 right now, there's a good chance he's already shot his load and won't be a top 5 kicker the rest of the way.
Click to expand...
Ah yes, the old "my kicker shot his load" dilemma.
Click to expand...
he'll need a few weeks to recover. unless he's privy to advanced techniques that ensure continual performance.
Click to expand...
The refractory period for kicker is quite long. Must be the tight pants with no pads.
Click to expand...
Thus kicker's wives tend to get pregnant much less as the season wears on.
 
'flc735 said:
using logic and this neat information to come up with an explanation:good offensive teams that begin the season struggling in the redzone (1-5 ranked kickers in 3 weeks) will tend to improve over time, which lessens their kickers output.good offenses that overachieve in the redzone early on (6-10 ranked kickers in 3 weeks) will tend to regress back to the mean which increases the output of their kickers.
Click to expand...
Well stated.
 
Top 5:

Hanson - Det

Gostkowski - NEP

Tynes - NYG

Tucker - Bal

Walsh - Min

6-10:

Akers - SF

Zuerlein - StL

Succop - KC

Bryant - Atl

Graham - Hou

 
I think Zuerlein, Hanson, Tucker & Akers will all be Top-5 by end of the year.

Kickers are an important and fun part of this FF thing, ok?

 
Awesome post! I suspect this might be a bit of a statistical artifact, but flc735's logic makes sense.

I'd just add this: there's a lot of week-to-week statistical noise with kickers (especially if you reward long kicks). So with a small sample size, you probably want to look less at the very top performers, and more at the top 10 or 12 or whatever the size of you league is. Finding the guys who are in that group but weren't picked up, or who were drafted, but aren't making the cut seems a useful tool.

 
My guess is that if you took the top 5 kickers for any random 3 week stretch during the season, most of them would likely not end up in the top 5 for the entire season.

In any given small time period, the randomness of FG opportunities would result in a few kickers outperforming the pack.

 
Exactly. 3 weeks is an inadequate sample size, because any average kicker can have a lucky-above-average streak of dome games/denver games/etc. in just 3 weeks that artificially inflate his numbers above his skill level.

 
FWIW Here's my theory on kickers:

Our league is set up so an XP=1 pt, 30-39 yard FG=3 pts, 40-49= 4 pts, etc...

If the Giants score 35 pts on 5 TDs while Blair Walsh cans a 50 yarder (he's done 3 times already) and a 30 yarder- Walsh outscores Tynes.

I just use the "Pray for a bomb or two" method. I understand this may come back to bite me some but I'd rather have the kicker that will get a shot at the high point bombs.

 
'Das Boot said:
My guess is that if you took the top 5 kickers for any random 3 week stretch during the season, most of them would likely not end up in the top 5 for the entire season.
Click to expand...
Did you mean "most of them would likely not end up in the top 5 for the rest of the season"? Then I totally agree with you. But what's intriguing to me is that it appears kickers performing just below top notch in the first three weeks (or perhaps any three week stretch for that matter) tend to perform a little better the rest of the way. (Of course, i didn't take much time on this and I didn't run any regressions. I just crudely lumped them into categories of five... But still, the results were fairly consistent over a five year period--as you can see, the 6-10 group outperformed the top 5 group in every category: Average ranking, top 5 kickers, top 10 kickers. Because of that, I don't think we're dealing with a situation where these numbers are skewed by a few outliers.)But if you actually meant most kickers with three week binges don't finish near the top for the entire season, I'd disagree. Those three week binges are valuable in overall points. But as fantasy players, we're not interested in overall points when making transactions. We're interested in future points and predictability.

'Das Boot said:
In any given small time period, the randomness of FG opportunities would result in a few kickers outperforming the pack.
Click to expand...
True. But in any given small time period, we should still expect that top FF kickers will, on average, score better than league average. My guess is that top kickers tend to get outperformed by the "lucky" kickers over any given few weeks. But even over these short periods of time, top kickers tend to hang around in the top ten because they're on good offenses that rarely get shut down. At this point, I'd hypothesize that this is why the 6-10 range is the sweet spot for selecting free agent kickers if you're looking for someone to perform better than league average the rest of the way. But the "luck" factor, which puts kickers into the top 5 over short periods of time, is strong and you're just as likely to get a top ten performance the rest of the way from Tynes as you are to get bottom ten points, which is where he ended up last year on a very similar offense.

 
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