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WR Julio Jones, PHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Team Smokin'
- Start date
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I continue to be amazed that Jones, a lock HOFer and one of the best WR in history, only has one season with double digit TDs.
Way to go, Falcons.
Way to go, Falcons.
I go the other way, where I think Jones is a buy, because people don't want to get caught holding the bag so to speak. It depends on price, but I'd trade a 2nd round rookie pick for Julio. I doubt anyone is getting a 1st for him, especially if leaves Atlanta.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
It's no wonder they haven't had more success. I think your point speaks directly to my point.I continue to be amazed that Jones, a lock HOFer and one of the best WR in history, only has one season with double digit TDs.
Way to go, Falcons.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
That’s amazing. 29th all-time in receptions, 20th in receiving yards (#1 per game 95.5), 88th career receiving TDs - 60 in 10 years.I continue to be amazed that Jones, a lock HOFer and one of the best WR in history, only has one season with double digit TDs.
Way to go, Falcons.
MAC_32
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
I would tell the Julio owner if there's someone he wants when my 2nd round pick is on the clock, let me know.
People get that pick fever, your best chance of getting a future 1st is always when you're on the clock. If the Julio owner decides he loves Player X, maybe you can get him.
I don't see how many NFL teams are in the market for a 32 year old guy with that contract. And that injury history.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Just like the trade scenarios involving Matt Ryan, ATL would eat a bunch of money and cap space by trading Jones. They'd be looking at about a $23.5M cap hit if they moved him before 6/1. They would end up with a similar cap hit trading him after 6/1 but they could at least split the cap hit over 2021 and 2022. Either way, it doesn't make much financial sense to trade him, as they would effectively be paying for him even if he was no longer on the team. At that point, unless they got a tremendous return, what good would trading him do for the team . . . would they be any better without him?
MAC_32
Footballguy
That's the plan, but I'm not getting my hopes up. If the Julio team has WR depth or isn't a contender then I think they'd be receptive to moving him, but one of those boxes need checked. Otherwise you're gonna have to include a starting WR to get him.massraider said:
And Atlanta isn't moving him anyway. Isn't the contract either. Since Atlanta would eat the bonus a hypothetical new team would have Julio at a decent rate - 15.3 this year, 11.5 next (only 2 gtd), and 11.5 in 23 (no gtd). But he'd actually cost Atlanta more if traded (23.25) this season than if they just kept him (23.05). A buyer would have to offer enough draft capital for them to justify that and given this year's WR class and his age why would one do that?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
No offense to you, but do all reporters not understand the concept of a salary cap? It seems like day after day there are a number of trade scenarios that make absolutely no sense being posted all over the place. Trading Jones would not net the Falcons any cap room unless it's after 6/1 (and as already mentioned, they would effectively be paying him to play somewhere else with minimal cap savings). And none of LV, BAL, TEN, NE as currently constituted could fit Jones under the cap (and also have to have room to sign their rookie class).
This happens so frequently that it's almost making me consider going back into things and getting another football writing / reporting job because so many people have no understanding of the salary cap or trading rules.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There are multiple HOF receivers that had only one season with 10+ TD including Michael Irvin. James Lofton, Drew Pearson, Art Monk, and Charlie Joiner never had 10 TD in a season. It happens.Andy Dufresne said:I continue to be amazed that Jones, a lock HOFer and one of the best WR in history, only has one season with double digit TDs.
Way to go, Falcons.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Fair enough but Jones is better than all those guys and they played in a totally different era.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
GB only has $3M in cap room and LV has a little over $6M. Jones would come with an immediate $15.3M cap charge to whichever team acquired him. (meaning the team he is traded to must have $15.3M in cap space at the time of the trade). IIRC, there are only like 6 or 8 teams that could take on a contract requiring that big of a salary cap hit (without making other moves to free up cap space).
Again, while it might make for some discussion and articles that got clicks, it would be very impractical for the Falcons to trade him. They would have to take on $40.5M in dead cap money. Since Jones got a ton of money when he signed ($25M signing bonus with $64M guaranteed), ATL would basically be paying a huge chunk of change for Jones to be playing for another team. Ignoring all of the finances, not sure why ATL would move him as he is still one of their best players and his departure would make them a weaker team.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
To be faaaaaaiiirAndy Dufresne said:I continue to be amazed that Jones, a lock HOFer and one of the best WR in history, only has one season with double digit TDs.
Way to go, Falcons.
he hasn’t exactly been the model of health, and they’ve done this thing where he goes out and limps around as a decoy, sometimes for a couple weeks at a time.
Not disputing your facts - you appear well informed - but it seems we hear this every once in a while that somebody can’t be traded due to the cap hits - and the guy still gets traded. Did we hear this on Hopkins last year?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
BUT WAIT THERE'S MORE!
He had stupid low TD numbers during his ridiculous '14-'19 stretch where his lowest reception and yardage totals were 83/1394.
EIGHT touchdowns on 136 catches in 2015? C'mon man!!
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Hopkins did not have a big (or long-term) contract with HOU . . . which is why he was disgruntled and wanted a trade. He got his big extension after he got shipped off to ARI. I don't believe the dead cap hit for him was all that much for the Texans.
A better example would be the Goff and Stafford trade, which to me was a case where it will end up hurting BOTH teams. They each have to take on the salary of the QB they traded for AND eat the cap hit of the player they traded. So DET had to take a $40M cap charge for Stafford (while taking on the 4 year, $108M contract for Goff) and LAR had to take a $40.8M cap charge for trading Goff (while taking on the 2 year, $43M contract for Stafford).
That trade was a salary cap nightmare for both teams . . . and IMO having to allocate that much cap room to the QB position in a depressed salary cap season was complete and utter lunacy. Apparently both teams thought is was a good idea. However, if they invested the money at other positions that they are literally just torching toward the salary cap by trading their QB, they could have greatly improved their respective teams and upgraded at MULTIPLE positions (had they just kept the same QB). But no NFL team has called to offer me a GM job, so what do I know . . .
need2know
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Michael Thomas had 149 receptions . . . and 9 TD.
Stefon Diggs had 127 receptions . . . and 8 TD.
Wes Welker had 123 receptions . . . and 4 TD.
WR scoring TD is a variable that isn't always one that they can control.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I don’t think this helps the argument. Just nitpicking, I don’t have any problem with Julio HOF talk and I also think he’s better, just saying that the modern nfl should provide more chances to score.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Hey, I get it. I totally agree that Jones has seemed like a force between the twenties but an after thought in the red zone. However, in the ATL games that I have watched, he seemed to always be doubled near the end zone. Whether Ryan should still have targeted him or not is questionable, but it does seem that he should have scored more TD over the years.
I do remember with Michael Irvin that if he needed to go 59 yards for a TD, he would get tackled or pushed out of bounds after 58 yards and Emmitt would get a gift TD plunge. That happened more times than I can remember. Irvin used to joke about it saying he deserved some of Smith's raise or some of his All Pro votes.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
As I understand it, they can finalize a deal any time now, and basically make it effective 6/1 to see that benefit.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Yes, moving Jones designated after 6/1 would help ATL some (freeing up $15M in cap space for this year), but they would still have to take a $23M+ cap hit (just spread out over two seasons instead of one).
Regardless of the finances for ATL, it still doesn't change that very few teams could afford to take on his contract in a depressed salary cap season. Between the cap hit they would have to take, the lack of potential suitors, and what would probably be a limited return in a trade (teams may want the player but not the contract), the Falcons would likely be better off sticking with Jones.
Marauder
Footballguy
Michael Irvin's the best comp since they're both big physical receivers who you'd think would be favorite red zone targets for their QB's. I see you mentioned Irvin getting pushed out at the one a lot in another post. I think the bigger issue for him was the lack of red zone targets. Whenever they got into the red zone they used to just keep feeding Emmet running behind the moose. That also depressed Aikman's stats to the point where he was not a viable fantasy starter.
Julio's consistent lack of TD's over his career just seems more puzzling. It's hard to come up with a good explanation.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The only thing that I noticed over the years is defenses put a body on him with a help defender in the red zone. It's pretty hard to get open in a confined space when there could be two guys in zone and someone playing him straight up. A guy won't get open with a guy underneath, someone over the top, and a CB on his hip. Ryan often saw the blanket coverage and quickly looked elsewhere. I suspect Jones would have had more scoring chances if they ran the rub routes and pick plays that are more common now (or putting him in motion more or even lining him up in the backfield). But in general, Jones has seemed to excel more in wide open space when defenses have way more of the field to cover. Once the field gets compressed, he seems to be way less effective.
It's all about generating the clicks these days. Nearly every trade speculation article I ever see never takes into account the salary cap.
But reporting is definitely pretty terrible these days. I saw a blurb/article yesterday from some writer talking about Denver will decide on picking up Courtland Sutton's 5th year option after the NFL draft. Only problem with this? Sutton was a 2nd round pick, he has no 5th year option.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Did I read that Miami is paying $6M of Flowers salary even as he is traded to Washington? Miami did free up some cap space but it appears they are also paying a good chunk of his 2021 salary vs just $3m Washington is on the hook for.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Yes . . . that is the type of situation I was outlining for SF to do with JG in order to trade him. The Dolphins converted $6M of Flowers' 2021 salary into a bonus. So Flowers got $6M, the Dolphins eat a $6M cap charge, and Washington only has to pay him $3M this season (with a $3M cap charge). That's how teams get the numbers to work and can trade players with onerous contracts to teams with salary cap issues.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Agreed, it's strange, but as has been noted, the Falcons do not go out of their way to feed him the ball in the red zone, and Matt Ryan is not really a "force it" kind of QB. He would rather throw it to a lesser receiver who looks open than force it to Julio who might be covered by a top corner and/or a safety.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I was just trying to relate to the audience what you are outlining when folks are trying to come up with trade scenarios or just reacting to the many paparazzi like stories that pop up leading up to Draft Day. Good stuff
I'm extremely worried that unless Julio tells Atlanta he does not want to play for Baltimore and they oblige his request that's where he is heading. I've already heard Ravens and Raiders(which would be really good) are interested in him but Raiders don't have cap space. Ravens meet every criteria. Need, cap space and picks.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
It’d be awesome if Fontenot joins the falcs just so he will trade Julio.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
This was a falcs problem, not a Julio problem. He should’ve played in Cleveland.Andy Dufresne said:
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yep. Matty Ice throws it away rather than giving Julio a jump ball in the endzone.Ghost Rider said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
FWIW, he was 9th in the NFL in red zone targets that year with 22 of them, but converted only 5 to TDs. The only other player who got even close to that number of RZ targets but had fewer than 7 TDs was Jarvis Landry.
ARob, for instance, had 12 TDs on 21 targets that year.
The other years he had a paultry number of redzone targets. It's just interesting that 2015 came up since that was the one year where he actually had a lot of RZ targets, he just didn't do much with them.
Faust
MVP
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I think of those 4 teams listed(Colts, 49ers, Patriots, Raiders) the Patriots make BY FAR the most sense. They've wanted a true #1 for years, they have a cheap QB for years to come(also applies to SF) and they have a decent amount of cap space left(Raiders don't) and they have draft capital(Colts, 49ers don't)
You are getting into a subject I've tried asking around on but can't get an answer and that is would Atlanta send Julio to a place he does not want to go or put another way would they try and send him to a preferred destination? I tend to think so and I'd be very surprised if NE was a place he wanted to go at this point in his career.
I feel extremely strongly they want to trade him and I think it's got more to do then with cap issues. But trying to possibly placate him and not send him somewhere he does not want to go makes things tricky. I think eventually they'll figure something out and move him but hard trade to get done IMO.
Personally, I doubt he gets dealt at all, but if he does, why wouldn't he want to go to NE? They are a playoff contender, who can also afford to pay him.
There are 12 teams that can afford him, without having to make a major cut(or restructure) to do so. Of those 12, I think we can rule out the Jaguars, Broncos, Jets, Bengals, Lions, Washington, and Carolina. That leaves 3 teams I mentioned earlier, SF, Indy, Patriots, and 2 sleepers in Cleveland and the Chargers.
Julio and Beckham outside, with Landry in the slot would be pretty scary for a team currently in its window.
The other question is what does Julio cost? Yes, he's been injured, but he's shown very little sign of decline on the field, and is still a higher end WR1. Does his age allow for a 1st? Or is something more like a 2nd+ seem likely?
I think Atlanta wants to trade him for salary cap purposes and also I believe to help re-set a new culture. Not that Julio is some kind of problem but he's just reached such a standing that he does stuff like show up to practice when he wants, which apparently was close to never last year.
As to why he'd not want to go NE I don't think he cares squat about being a playoff contender, but he would like to be on SB contender and and play with a halfway decent QB and they are not it.As to being able to afford him that means nothing to him, just makes them a team able to take on his contract.
And I think his market is a 2022#2, but if they are trying to placate him might have to take a third and some change.
rockaction
Footballguy
For those saying Julio still has it or doesn't practice, his body was in a whole lot of trouble last year and he missed significant time due to a lingering hamstring injury. He couldn't practice. When he played he was effective, but whether he would play was touch and go from the first quarter of the year on. He missed seven games, and put forth about four or so duds because he tried to play but was hurt.
His body might be giving out, really.
His body might be giving out, really.
