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Julian Edelman going forward


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Any new thoughts on Edelman's prospects?

Good matchup this week, but then BAL & SF, close with Jax.

Hernandez is looking like he's still not exploding.

Few targets for Edelman but if he stays healthy maybe he finally keeps doing more?

He is starting in the 2 WR sets over Lloyd now. I think he's a WR2 for the rest of the way. Probably about D. Alexander numbers.
Comparing a WR3 who has been injured twice in the past 6 weeks, to a WR1...

I think Edelman is capable of holding the WR3 spot, but I just cannot see him move up the chart, he just isn't good enough. Things can change though, I don't think for a second that Welker is gone next year, but if Lloyd doesn't show any improvement he will be moved/dropped, Edelman could also improve during the offseason (which is the least likely imo, fourth year player).

Edelman is one of their best special teams players, up there with Welker and Gronk, he just has shown that he cannot cut it at a higher level, hes a great depth player. Its the biggest thing he has going for him other than that he gets the system, which seems to be more than half the battle for most players.

Edited by Run It Up
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Because jumping on the hood of a car is just as normal as eating a bowl of cereal.

Welker averaged 7.2 receptions and 80.2 yds/gm in the regular season and 7.7 catches and 76.2 yds/gm in the post season. Edelman has averaged 6.4 receptions and 69.8 yds/gm in the regular season

...And we’re back.

Any new thoughts on Edelman's prospects?

Good matchup this week, but then BAL & SF, close with Jax.

Hernandez is looking like he's still not exploding.

Few targets for Edelman but if he stays healthy maybe he finally keeps doing more?

He is starting in the 2 WR sets over Lloyd now. I think he's a WR2 for the rest of the way. Probably about D. Alexander numbers.
Good info here, thanks!

Was this the case last week before he left the game or has it been reported that he's taken over Lloyd's spot in 2 WR sets?

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Any new thoughts on Edelman's prospects?

Good matchup this week, but then BAL & SF, close with Jax.

Hernandez is looking like he's still not exploding.

Few targets for Edelman but if he stays healthy maybe he finally keeps doing more?

He is starting in the 2 WR sets over Lloyd now. I think he's a WR2 for the rest of the way. Probably about D. Alexander numbers.
Good info here, thanks!

Was this the case last week before he left the game or has it been reported that he's taken over Lloyd's spot in 2 WR sets?

Not positive but I think I remember reading that last week Lloyd was in on 2 WR sets, even before Edelman got knocked the funk out.
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Any new thoughts on Edelman's prospects?

Good matchup this week, but then BAL & SF, close with Jax.

Hernandez is looking like he's still not exploding.

Few targets for Edelman but if he stays healthy maybe he finally keeps doing more?

He is starting in the 2 WR sets over Lloyd now. I think he's a WR2 for the rest of the way. Probably about D. Alexander numbers.
Good info here, thanks!

Was this the case last week before he left the game or has it been reported that he's taken over Lloyd's spot in 2 WR sets?

Not positive but I think I remember reading that last week Lloyd was in on 2 WR sets, even before Edelman got knocked the funk out.
Edelman is a Welker clone. They will both be productive. Hernandez demands attention & Gronk will be back. Woodhead drives me nuts, (you can't start him but he steals fantasy points.)
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Any new thoughts on Edelman's prospects?

Good matchup this week, but then BAL & SF, close with Jax.

Hernandez is looking like he's still not exploding.

Few targets for Edelman but if he stays healthy maybe he finally keeps doing more?

He is starting in the 2 WR sets over Lloyd now. I think he's a WR2 for the rest of the way. Probably about D. Alexander numbers.
Good info here, thanks!

Was this the case last week before he left the game or has it been reported that he's taken over Lloyd's spot in 2 WR sets?

Not positive but I think I remember reading that last week Lloyd was in on 2 WR sets, even before Edelman got knocked the funk out.
IIRC, there was only one game where Edelman was in on a lot more plays than Lloyd, and I wonder if that was a game planning thing for that particular week.

Here are the snap counts for each week . . .

Week 1

Lloyd, 57 snaps, 85% of offensive plays

Welker 42, 63%

Edelman 23, 34%

Week 2

Lloyd 80, 100%

Edelman 73, 91%

Welker 62, 78%

Week 3

Welker 73, 89%

Lloyd 65, 79%

Edelman 37, 45%

Week 4

Lloyd 76, 99%

Welker 74, 96%

Edelman 0, 0%

Week 5

Lloyd 88, 94%

Welker 84, 89%

Edelman 0, 0%

Week 6

Lloyd 81, 94%

Welker 76, 88%

Edelman 0, 0%

Week 7

Lloyd 67, 86%

Welker 62, 79%

Edelman 5, 6%

Week 8

Lloyd 53, 75%

Welker 48, 68%

Edelman 24, 34%

Week 10

Welker 64, 89%

Lloyd 57, 79%

Edelman 17, 24%

Week 11

Welker 57, 93%

Edelman 52, 85%

Lloyd 34, 56%

Week 12

Welker 61, 90%

Lloyd 60, 88%

Edelman 14, 21%

From what I remember from the Jets game, Lloyd was back to playing most of the time even before Edelman got knocked out.

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  • 7 months later...

Making the Leap, No. 29: Patriots WR Julian Edelman

By Gregg Rosenthal

Around The League Editor

(click on the linked article to see the related video clips in the article)

Around The League will profile the top 40 players we see Making the Leap in 2013. No. 29: New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman.

Why Edelman is on the list

Most players on our "Making the Leap" list are second- or third-year pros primed to see their talent shine. Julian Edelman is different. He's a role player who will be asked to become more this year. Like plenty of New England Patriots before him, he's hung around long enough to earn a big opportunity. He should be ready for the moment.

When Edelman caught 37 passes as a rookie in 2009, it looked like the Patriots found another core player from out of nowhere. A seventh-round draft pick out of Kent State who played quarterback in college, Edelman didn't take long to adjust to becoming a full-time wide receiver. But injuries, dropped passes, a deep Patriots roster and a dalliance playing cornerback in 2011 slowed Edelman's development as a pass catcher.

Edelman is not strictly a slot receiver. Many of his snaps in 2012 came with Wes Welker and/or the team's tight ends playing on the inside. All three of Edelman's receiving touchdowns last season came when he was lined up outside.

Edelman is not Welker. He's not as durable or reliable, but Edelman also is far more explosive. He can play inside and out, and knows what Tom Brady looks for. In a two-game stretch last season, Edelman had a 56-yard receiving touchdown, a 68-yard punt return touchdown, a 47-yard run and a 49-yard punt return. (He also threw in a forced fumble on special teams and returned a fumbled kickoff for a score.)

No current NFL player has a higher career punt return average. (Really. Edelman is amazingly fourth in punt return average all time.) These are not the numbers of a simple chain-mover.

Obstacles

The Patriots wanted to feature Edelman as a bigger part of their offense last year, but he couldn't stay on the field. A hand injury was followed by a concussion that was quickly followed by a foot injury that ended his season. Edelman hung around on the free-agent market for a month this offseason before signing a deal with no guaranteed money. He aggravated the foot in May and isn't a lock to be ready for camp. I watched Edelman repeatedly break tackles on tape, which often left him vulnerable to taking big hits.

If he's healthy, there's a legitimate concern that Edelman can't beat man coverage on the outside consistently. But the Patriots don't line up anyone in the same spot play after play, and Edelman's versatility is one of his greatest strengths.

2013 Expectations

Edelman is often compared to Welker, but longtime Patriot slot man Troy Brown is the better comparison. Brown played four seasons in New England before ever topping 250 receiving yards, making his money on special teams. Like Edelman, Brown was quicker than fast and had a knack for big plays. Brown didn't experience his breakout until his eighth season, but the stars are aligned for Edelman to make noise in Year 5. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels loves Edelman and knows he can use him in a variety of ways.

There's no reason why Edelman shouldn't be the Patriots' No. 2 receiver behind Danny Amendola, other than health. Edelman is the only wideout on the roster to have caught a pass from Tom Brady. Rookies Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce are mysteries, but they didn't necessarily look ready in organized team activities. Michael Jenkins and Donald Jones are veterans trying to keep their careers afloat. And there isn't a tight end on the roster ready to catch a lot of passes consistently until Rob Gronkowski gets healthy.

The Patriots haven't needed Edelman before. They need him now, and he's shown the ability in his career to be a difference-maker. A sneaky season of more than 800 receiving yards could follow for Edelman.

Follow Gregg Rosenthal on Twitter @greggrosenthal.

Edited by Faust
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I've held Edelman in a couple of deep leagues for years waiting for this opportunity. He showed last season that he was explosive, now if he can stay healthy he can put up some nice numbers.

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Amendola and Edelman have both had a lot of trouble staying healthy. It looks like the Pats were trying to get Edelman about 5-7 targets per game last year when he was up and running. I think it would be reasonable for that number to be a bit higher, say 6-8 targets per game this year. Obviously extrapolated over a full season that's 96-128 targets this season. I think that safely puts him in the top 30-40 receivers for targets. And that's without really picking up the slack for anyone.

Early in the season he looked serviceable as a WR3. And that was with Lloyd and Welker there. So I think his draft position of 12th round is very safe.

In games he plays, he's a lock for about 10 PPR points. Not great, but not clogging up a roster spot either. He's a spot starter I think and will perform better than TOP 40. That's a solid value to be had as your WR5 or WR6.

Of course he might outproduce those numbers significantly as well. No reason to think he can't be the beneficiary of the loss of targets. Brady trusts him and he lines up outside. He could be basically interchangeable with Amendola. I think they are very similar players in that they figure to be part of the game plan most weeks. But Amendola is going off boards much much earlier. If both stay healthy I think they will be within 15-20 catches of one another. And it just might be Amendola looking up at Edelman when the dust settles.

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I've held Edelman in a couple of deep leagues for years waiting for this opportunity. He showed last season that he was explosive, now if he can stay healthy he can put up some nice numbers.

Yea I picked him up last season with the assumption that Welker could walk out the door and he would fall into the slot role. Now he just needs to stay healthy and have some good early season games so I can ship his ### out the door before he gets hurt.

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Rotoworld:

ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss believes Julian Edelman (foot) will enter Week 1 as the Patriots' No. 2 receiver if he can get healthy.

Edelman isn't a roster lock because of his latest injury, but shouldn't have much trouble moving past Aaron Dobson, Donald Jones and the like if he can get back to 100 percent before the preseason. Edelman caught 21 passes for 235 yards in nine games last season, but was slowed by hand, foot and head issues.
Source: ESPN Boston
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  • 1 month later...

Now I'm trying to figure out how much to bid for him. I'm thinking 40% of my budget may not be a bad idea as he would instantly be considered a WR3 with WR1 upside with a couple more weeks like this. Now when Gronk comes back I think his production could change considerably so I need to factor that in so maybe 25-30%.

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How much value will he have when Gronk comes back?

I think the real question is in two parts. When will Amendola get injured enough to miss significant time? And what will Edelman do when that happens?

When/If Amendola gets injured he will have significant value. Unfortunately I don't see his value being that high with Amendola and Gronk on the field. With Gronk out, I think Edelman has flex worthiness. With Amendola out, Edelman has WR1/2 worthiness.

Edited by steveski
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How much value will he have when Gronk comes back?

I think the real question is in two parts. When will Amendola get injured enough to miss significant time? And what will Edelman do when that happens?

The key with Edelman will not be Gronk and Amendola...it will be the other WRs like Dobson, Boyce and Thompkins...if Edelman can stay healthy he is legit...he's not an All Pro so having the other two out there means he will not be the focus of defensive game-planning...if the rookies play well it could eat some of his numbers...yet, if they struggle (Thompkins did and if he continues to I don't see another 14 target day coming anytime soon) than Brady really has no choice but to go to Edelman a ton...much like you saw this past Sunday...I think he's going to end-up being a very solid #3 WR with the potential to have some big weeks because he has big-play potential...

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(03:01 pm ET) Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels raved Monday about wide receiver Julian Edelman following his two-touchdown performance Sunday at Buffalo.

"Julian has always been a versatile guy for us," McDaniels said. "He's been able to play multiple positions. He is a tough player, he is a tough competitor, he can make plays on the perimeter and he can go inside and do some of the things inside that we ask him to do. Yesterday he came up with quite a few big catches for us, and certainly a few big plays for us in the red zone and on third down that were really critical for us. [He] is a guy that works hard, tries to come in and do his best at everything we ask him to do. He is always prepared for the game and tries to make the most of his opportunities, and yesterday I thought he really helped us."

by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

(09:34 am ET) It took me reviewing the Patriots-Bills game to really get a grasp on this, but Julian Edelmanwasn't just a replacement for Danny Amendola. The veteran Patriots receiver played more than Amendola even if you take away the time Amendola missed with a groin injury.

Edelman played 31 snaps without Amendola and another 47 with him. Amendola played just nine snaps without Edelman.

I think Zach Sudfeld's drop that led to an interception played a big hand in this, but judging on the quality of targets Edelman had, including two into the end zone that were just off his hands, he's probably not going to leave the field much in the near future. Edelman's absolutely worth a waiver add and probably worth starting as a Flex against the Jets on Thursday.

That's 78 snaps for Edelman. Haven't seen the total amount of offensive snaps yet, but it can't be much more.

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How much value will he have when Gronk comes back?

I think the real question is in two parts. When will Amendola get injured enough to miss significant time? And what will Edelman do when that happens?

The key with Edelman will not be Gronk and Amendola...it will be the other WRs like Dobson, Boyce and Thompkins...if Edelman can stay healthy he is legit...he's not an All Pro so having the other two out there means he will not be the focus of defensive game-planning...if the rookies play well it could eat some of his numbers...yet, if they struggle (Thompkins did and if he continues to I don't see another 14 target day coming anytime soon) than Brady really has no choice but to go to Edelman a ton...much like you saw this past Sunday...I think he's going to end-up being a very solid #3 WR with the potential to have some big weeks because he has big-play potential...

Personally the way I read this is that the question was, even with Gronk in, who woudl get AHern's & Lloyd's touches.

The answer was Vereen and Edelman, with Thompkins in the mix, and now Vereen is even out for a bit so all the better for Edelman.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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In an $80 FAAB league, I am bidding $20 on him if it helps anyone.

Ogletree went for $443 in one of my $1000 FAAB leagues last year, you might want to up that bid if you want to guarantee you win him!

I'm bidding $501 out of $1,000 in my FFPC league. Amendola owner here

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Amendola likely to miss week 2. That didn't take long, did it?

OMG where did you hear this?!?!?!?!

Report: Danny Amendola questionable beyond Week 2
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com

(02:15 pm ET) With Patriots wide receiver Danny Amendola looking doubtful for Thursday's game against the Jets, a source told the Boston Herald the wide receiver's status past Week 2 is uncertain as well.

Report: Danny Amendola to miss Thursday's game
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com

(11:34 am ET) Patriots wide receiver Danny Amendola is almost certain to miss Thursday's game (Week 2) against the Jets with a groin injury, a source told NFL.com. Amendola was not spotted at Tuesday's walk-through.

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Amendola likely to miss week 2. That didn't take long, did it?

OMG where did you hear this?!?!?!?!

Report: Danny Amendola questionable beyond Week 2

by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com(02:15 pm ET) With Patriots wide receiver Danny Amendola looking doubtful for Thursday's game against the Jets, a source told the Boston Herald the wide receiver's status past Week 2 is uncertain as well.

Report: Danny Amendola to miss Thursday's game

by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com(11:34 am ET) Patriots wide receiver Danny Amendola is almost certain to miss Thursday's game (Week 2) against the Jets with a groin injury, a source told NFL.com. Amendola was not spotted at Tuesday's walk-through.

He was being a sarcastic ###, not actually looking for a source.

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I dropped him in my 40 man dynasty league before kickoff, I'm not even going to waste my time picking him up.

Ha ha....yeah right....40 man roster and you drop Edleman? Even before the opener I don't believe that for a moment because even in a 28 man roster he would be a no-brainer. Seriously what other 12 or 13 players would you roster over him?

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I dropped him in my 40 man dynasty league before kickoff, I'm not even going to waste my time picking him up.

Ha ha....yeah right....40 man roster and you drop Edleman? Even before the opener I don't believe that for a moment because even in a 28 man roster he would be a no-brainer. Seriously what other 12 or 13 players would you roster over him?
please dont encourage him and just ignore his biased remarks
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I'm sure a lot of you are in a similar boat as me.... having to decide what % of your FA budget to bid on Edelman.

It was encouraging that he was on the field for a ton of snaps at the same time as Amendola, so they clearly don't look at him as DA's backup. But I am concerned that they may not want to have two "slot-type" of guys on the field together when Gronk returns, since he owns the middle of the field.

Thoughts?

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I'm sure a lot of you are in a similar boat as me.... having to decide what % of your FA budget to bid on Edelman.

It was encouraging that he was on the field for a ton of snaps at the same time as Amendola, so they clearly don't look at him as DA's backup. But I am concerned that they may not want to have two "slot-type" of guys on the field together when Gronk returns, since he owns the middle of the field.

Thoughts?

Edelman is pretty capable of playing outside, and by the looks of it right now he's the only WR they've got who can. It should be noted that Amendola can play outside as well, so these two can move around a lot when they're both healthy.

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I'm sure a lot of you are in a similar boat as me.... having to decide what % of your FA budget to bid on Edelman.

It was encouraging that he was on the field for a ton of snaps at the same time as Amendola, so they clearly don't look at him as DA's backup. But I am concerned that they may not want to have two "slot-type" of guys on the field together when Gronk returns, since he owns the middle of the field.

Thoughts?

Edelman is pretty capable of playing outside, and by the looks of it right now he's the only WR they've got who can. It should be noted that Amendola can play outside as well, so these two can move around a lot when they're both healthy.

So IF he remains healthy, there should be no worry about him getting plenty of playing time going forward?

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Evan Silva charted Edelman's targets from week 1 and reported the following:

"six came in the slot with three at Z receiver. He was targeted on three receiver screens, two deep seam patterns, and one deep comeback down the sideline"

Source: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/44155/179/matchup-jets--patriots

I think this notion of Edelman's usage as a pure slot guy is a misperception. There's a real chance he continues to have value as one of Brady's primary receivers, especially now that Vereen is out until week 11.

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I'm sure a lot of you are in a similar boat as me.... having to decide what % of your FA budget to bid on Edelman.

It was encouraging that he was on the field for a ton of snaps at the same time as Amendola, so they clearly don't look at him as DA's backup. But I am concerned that they may not want to have two "slot-type" of guys on the field together when Gronk returns, since he owns the middle of the field.

Thoughts?

I don't think I am even going to bother bidding, if I did it would be in the 10-12% range which I'm pretty sure would not be any where close to what people will bid on him.

Keep in mind Gronk is back after Thursdays game (my guess).

Leon Washington will be in taking a good chunk of Vereen's touches.

Dobson, Boyce, Blount, "Hooman", etc...Brady will be spreading it around (again my guess).

This just stinks of Ogletree V2.0

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One of the Pats' beat writers was on Nathan Zegura's fantasy show yesterday. (Damn, I can never remember the dude's name... Mike something?) Anyway, he agreed that Edelman was awesome, but he noted that he's gotta stick to the shallow stuff... crossing patterns, option routes, screens/flats, etc. because he got smothered on his deep targets. This guy doesn't believe Edelman has any shot of beating defenders deep, so his game isn't as well-rounded as we might hope.

Don't kill the messenger. Just telling you what he said.

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I'm sure a lot of you are in a similar boat as me.... having to decide what % of your FA budget to bid on Edelman. It was encouraging that he was on the field for a ton of snaps at the same time as Amendola, so they clearly don't look at him as DA's backup. But I am concerned that they may not want to have two "slot-type" of guys on the field together when Gronk returns, since he owns the middle of the field. Thoughts?

Edelman is pretty capable of playing outside, and by the looks of it right now he's the only WR they've got who can. It should be noted that Amendola can play outside as well, so these two can move around a lot when they're both healthy.
So IF he remains healthy, there should be no worry about him getting plenty of playing time going forward?

That's my opinion, for whatever that's worth. If he's healthy, I think he's on the field until one of the young guys proves they should overtake him. Boyce got a tiny bit of action, and I think he was targeted once. Was Dobson even active? I don't think he was, but that's probably a Special Teams numbers game, if he doesn't play them.

Edelman was being utilized on the outside (and in the slot) when Welker was still there at the beginning of last year, before Edelman went down he was a big part of their gameplan.

With Vereen out (and he was motioning out wide a good bit) I think that only increases Edelman's opportunity, whether it's in the slot or on the outside. The Pats love his versatility.

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I'm sure a lot of you are in a similar boat as me.... having to decide what % of your FA budget to bid on Edelman. It was encouraging that he was on the field for a ton of snaps at the same time as Amendola, so they clearly don't look at him as DA's backup. But I am concerned that they may not want to have two "slot-type" of guys on the field together when Gronk returns, since he owns the middle of the field. Thoughts?

Edelman is pretty capable of playing outside, and by the looks of it right now he's the only WR they've got who can. It should be noted that Amendola can play outside as well, so these two can move around a lot when they're both healthy.
So IF he remains healthy, there should be no worry about him getting plenty of playing time going forward?

That's my opinion, for whatever that's worth. If he's healthy, I think he's on the field until one of the young guys proves they should overtake him. Boyce got a tiny bit of action, and I think he was targeted once. Was Dobson even active? I don't think he was, but that's probably a Special Teams numbers game, if he doesn't play them.

Edelman was being utilized on the outside (and in the slot) when Welker was still there at the beginning of last year, before Edelman went down he was a big part of their gameplan.

With Vereen out (and he was motioning out wide a good bit) I think that only increases Edelman's opportunity, whether it's in the slot or on the outside. The Pats love his versatility.

Dobson is hurt

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One of the Pats' beat writers was on Nathan Zegura's fantasy show yesterday. (Damn, I can never remember the dude's name... Mike something?) Anyway, he agreed that Edelman was awesome, but he noted that he's gotta stick to the shallow stuff... crossing patterns, option routes, screens/flats, etc. because he got smothered on his deep targets. This guy doesn't believe Edelman has any shot of beating defenders deep, so his game isn't as well-rounded as we might hope.Don't kill the messenger. Just telling you what he said.

I agree with this, part of it is that Edelman doesn't have a large catch radius. He's not going to be out-leaping defenders and making fingertip catches, most of the time. But the Pats haven't had a WR like that since Randy, Lloyd had the ability to make those plays but fudged them more often than not. I don't think threatening a defense deep is a requirement for Edelman to continue to get time playing outside.

Edited by ConnSKINS26
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