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[DYNASTY] 2013 Top 20 Rookies (1 Viewer)

EBF

Footballguy
A few notes before the rankings:

- This list is meant for PPR dynasty leagues. I am not trying to predict where these players will go in the draft. Only how valuable they will be in FF.

- This list is really early. A lot can and will change in the next few months as we get more data points. My breakdowns will be a lot more comprehensive in future editions. My rankings will look a lot different in four months.

- This list usually goes to 24, but it's still early and I'm still in the preliminary phases of reviewing most of these players. Future lists will be longer.

- Without a doubt, the story of this class is the WR depth. There might be 10 or 12 guys with legitimate starting potential. If you need a receiver, you're going to have some interesting options. If you need anything else, you might be screwed.

- I don't think there's an elite prospect in the pool this year, so there's no first tier. We start in the second tier this year.

SECOND TIER

1. WR Markus Wheaton, Oregon State - Wheaton would not have been any higher than 6th on my list last year, but this is a weak draft class and for now he has a tenuous grip on the #1 spot. I look for a lot of things in a prospect. Most simply, I look for a player who has special athletic qualities combined with solid football skills. That's Wheaton. He has a great upfield burst and is a natural playmaker with good hands and instincts. Although his route running is a bit choppy, he has dominated the competition this year, averaging approximately 100 receiving yards and a TD per game. He doesn't have the overwhelming power of a great possession WR and he probably won't reach Mike Wallace levels in a 40 yard dash, but his overall combination of frame and speed makes him a pretty dangerous player. However, he is NOT a can't-miss prospect. He's more of a late first round type of talent who gets the top slot by default.

2. WR Keenan Allen, Cal - A good possession WR who has been a productive player throughout his college career. Allen is a natural football player who can make plays with the ball in his hands and in the air. However, he is not the dynamo that his hype might lead you to believe. Although he is tall, he is not a strong receiver who can overpower defenders before and after the catch. He is actually a bit thin and weak through the upper body. And although he has decent speed and leaping ability, he really isn't a blistering downfield threat. There's no one quite like him in the NFL, but the best comparison might be a taller, thinner Michael Crabtree. I expect Allen to become something like that in the NFL. A good possession WR who lacks the real difference maker qualities to become a true star.

3. RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama - Not a special back, but does enough things well to start and post decent numbers at the next level. Lacy is a big back with surprisingly good feet and hands. He is capable of making sharp cuts in the open field to leave defenders grasping air. However, he's a bit inconsistent in terms of his hips and footwork, sometimes struggling to shift his momentum fast enough to avoid big collisions. I really don't think he's an amazing player destined for stardom. There are many players on this list who have higher ceilings, but for teams needing instant help at RB, Lacy will be a serviceable solution. I would compare his talent level to someone like Ridley, Law Firm, or Greene.

4. WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee - A bit of an enigma. Hunter has some compelling athletic qualities, but also leaves you with the feeling that something is missing. He is a tall receivers with decent strength and very good hops. He runs pretty well and is able to get behind the defense quickly with his long strides. He can sky for the jump ball when covered well. Like a lot of taller receivers with long legs, he is not spectacular at making people miss in the open field, but he does have some shake purely because he's such a good athlete. He should test well at the combine and he does have the look of a first round talent and a potential #1 WR at the next level, but I'd stop short of calling him an elite prospect.

5. RB Gio Bernard, UNC - An immensely productive back who can impact the game in a variety of ways. Lacks a conventional featured back frame and doesn't have amazing quickness or speed to compensate, but he's compact and efficient with good instincts. A dangerous open field playmaker with very good hands. He should be especially valuable in PPR and could be a real weapon for FF teams if he can accumulate a lot of receptions. There are some exciting qualities here, but when I watch his clips I never get the feeling that I'm seeing an elite talent. In terms of talent, I think he's somewhere in the middle between DeAngelo Williams and Shane Vereen. I'm not quite sure if he has the special qualities to be a slam dunk featured back, but the potential payoff is pretty massive given how valuable these pass catching backs can be in FF. I will be keeping a close eye on his combine workout and landing spot, as I think they'll be especially important for him.

6. TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame - In a draft that lacks sure things, the smart money might be to bank on the BPA. Eifert doesn't play a glamor position, but might be the only legitimate first round pass catcher in the whole draft. He has a big frame coupled with the fluid route running and speed of a possession WR. In some respects he reminds me of Jason Witten, who has been a phenomenal NFL player. Eifert is a lot faster than former teammate Kyle Rudolph and looks on the surface like one of the safest picks in the draft.

7. WR Marcus Davis, Virginia Tech - The receiver of choice for the height/weight/speed crowd, Davis is the best pure physical specimen in this draft. He has the frame of a top 10 NFL receiver and flashes the compact strides and overall athletic ability of an elite prospect. He has one of the highest ceilings of any skill position player in the draft and it would not be shocking to see him become the best WR from this draft. However, he is a very risky prospect with suspect pure receiving skills. He has the worst production of any receiver in my top 10 and wasn't even a starter in college until his senior year. He has a tendency to body catch. He is a fluid runner, but might not have the suddenness to generate consistent separation. He is a true boom-or-bust prospect. He could end up becoming a star like Vincent Jackson or merely a great athlete who isn't a great receiver like Josh Morgan. I think the upside is worth a pretty high pick and I suspect that he'll go quite a bit higher in the NFL draft than current mocks would lead you to believe.

8. WR Marquess Wilson, Washington State - An interesting sleeper candidate with some elite qualities, but also some major question marks. Wilson is a very sharp route runner for a 6'4" receiver, showing a fluid and compact stride with surprising suddenness. He is a springy athlete in the mold of AJ Green. He might be the most promising jump ball receiver in the draft, flashing very good body control and coordination. On the down side, he has a rail thin frame that could cause problems in the hyper-physical NFL. He'll also have to answer some pretty serious questions about his character and desire, having quit the team under dubious circumstances earlier this season. At times his game reminds me of successful players like Green, Antonio Bryant, and Nate Burleson. He is a very talented natural receiver with enough athletic ability to play at the next level, but there is considerable risk attached to him as well.

9. WR Robert Woods, USC - I really can't put it into words, but I've never quite been as high on Woods as everyone else. He's not quite big enough to be a possession receiver and not quite fast enough to be a dominant deep threat. I don't think he's a great route runner. He had a low YPC in college and has been completely surpassed by his teammate Marquise Lee. Nevertheless, he has some similarities with my current #1 (Wheaton) and does enough things well to be worth consideration. I doubt he'll ever be a true #1 receiver at the next level, but he could end up being a very good #2 in the right system or a 1B type like Jeremy Maclin.

10. RB Stepfan Taylor, Stanford - A tricky player to evaluate. On the one hand, he's a solid athlete with a good track record of production and a demonstrated the ability to make special plays like

. On the other hand, when I watch him run I sometimes get the feeling that he's merely a backup caliber talent in the NFL. He's compact with deceptive power. He has a very strong base and shows good footwork to make people miss. He's also an instinctive runner and a threat in the passing game. He has a lot of the ingredients for NFL success and could move up my board quite a bit with a strong combine. However, he doesn't have the "wow kind of burst that you expect from a starting NFL back and possesses below average long speed. Like Bernard, the combine and his draft position will go a long way towards determining how high I rank him. I think he has starting potential at the next level, but right now I wouldn't say that he's a lock for it. 11. QB Geno Smith, West Virginia - An accurate pocket passer whose numbers have been a bit inflated by the scheme and supporting cast. His stats paint a really pretty picture and he seems to have the right kind of arm strength and passing instincts for the next level, but scouts have questioned his ability to function under pressure. In a format that puts a premium on the QB position he's worth considering as high as the 1.01, but in most leagues he's probably more of a mid-late first rounder. The general consensus seems to be that he's a solid top 15 type of prospect, but not the kind of slam dunk franchise QB destined for stardom. With that being the case, I'm more inclined to gamble on RBs and WRs barring need or format considerations.

THIRD TIER

12. RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina - I've thought he was overrated since his freshman season, but he might be a borderline first round talent when healthy and could be an interesting stash as a late first rounder. Provided that he returns to full health, his value will spike when he nears his return and you'll be able to cash him in for a higher pick. However, I think his talent has been overblown and I think he lacks the right kind of frame to survive as a long term starter in the NFL.

13. RB Andre Ellington, Clemson - On his good days resembles Jamaal Charles with his home run skills. Has some of the same warts, as he's not the biggest back. Depending on combine and landing spot, could jump up a lot. For now there's too much risk that he's just a committee guy.

14. WR Da'Rick Rogers, Tennessee Tech - Not far off the first tier based on talent. A fearless possession WR with an above average frame and decent athletic ability. Severe character concerns keep his stock down a little bit. And while I like his potential, I don't think he's an obvious star even without the off-field issues.

15. WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia - Projected by some as a first round pick. Maybe I'm underselling him here, but to me he looks like a 'tweener gadget player who doesn't have a real position in the NFL. He doesn't have the downfield receiving ability of DeSean Jackson or Percy Harvin and isn't big enough to be a full-time running back. The closest comparison is Dexter McCluster, who went high in the draft yet hasn't done much in the NFL. That's my fear with Austin.

16. WR Stedman Bailey, West Virginia - I might prefer him over Austin simply because he has a more clearly defined path to FF relevance. Bailey is a solid possession WR with B grade size, speed, quickness, and playmaking ability. He doesn't have the special qualities to be a #1 in the NFL, but could become a quality #2 in the mold of Eric Decker. The problem is that his value will hinge heavily on his situation. On a great offense, he might be a top 20 FF WR. On a mediocre offense, he might be Kevin Walter.

17. WR Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech - His profile is a bit like Bailey's, although for my money Patton might play with more suddenness and flair. Patton has been a very productive player over the last two seasons. He shows good initial quickness before and after the catch, and is a real threat in the open field. He was one of my favorite sleeper picks entering the season and has gradually ascended draft boards with continued solid play. Like Bailey, he does not have the physical qualities of a conventional #1 receiver. The best NFL comparisons are Steve Johnson and Nate Burleson, meaning he can be a decent #2 receiver or a below average #1 if force-fed the ball like Stevie.

18. WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee - I've seen Patterson ranked as a possible first round pick and that surprises me. I don't really think he's that good. Yes, he is a dangerous open field runner, but he doesn't look like a special receiver in terms of route running and pass catching. He only had one 100+ yard game all season, and it came against lowly Troy. In his defense, he's a JUCO transfer who's still getting acclimated to major college ball. It would not be completely realistic to expect instance dominance. Nevertheless, he strikes me as an overrated prospect. I will definitely go back and review a lot more of him before the draft rolls around though.

19. RB Montee Ball, Wisconsin - I don't particularly like his game and I don't think he's a great NFL prospect, but anyone with a decent frame and all-world production deserves some consideration. I actually think his teammate James White has a chance to be a better pro. However, if Ball is drafted in the top 100 picks to a team that needs instant help, he might be an adequate stop-gap solution.

20. WR Terrance Williams, Baylor - I'm not really seeing what the fuss is about with Williams, a one-dimensional speedster whose production looks to be the product of a friendly college system. He has decent height and awesome stats, but I don't think he looks like a special talent for the next level. I will certainly take another look before the draft. For now, I have him pegged as overrated.

OTHERS:

QB Matt Barkley, USC - Might be underrated at this point. I think he can be an average NFL starter. How exciting is that prospect though?

QB Tyler Wilson, Arkansas - He has lots of fans. I'm not one of them.

QB AJ McCarron, Alabama - Flying under the radar, which is weird considering where he plays. Awesome stats and might be more than just a game manager.

RB Michael Dyer, ex-Auburn - I've said it a million times by now, but he's the most talented RB or WR eligible for this draft. If he declares, he becomes a very high pick for me.

RB Lache Seastrunk, Baylor - I doubt he will come out, but FF owners should be hoping that he does. Seastrunk has been on an absolute rampage since becoming the starter and is much more explosive than the likes of Bernard and Taylor.

RB Jonathan Franklin, UCLA - The best player on UCLA's offense is a good sleeper to keep an eye on throughout the postseason.

RB LeVeon Bell, Michigan State - A player that I will reconsider in the next few months. Looks a bit too slow to me, but could be underrated here. Big frame and versatile with great production.

RB Mike Gillislee, Florida - I'll go back and watch more of him, but he looks really average to me. This year's Pead.

RB Kenjon Barner, Oregon - A system back with decent quicks and speed, but not much frame. I don't see him making an impact.

RB Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt - Another sleeper who basically looks like a backup to me.

RB James White, Wisconsin - Unlikely to declare and isn't an elite prospect even if he does, but has some promising qualities.

RB Dennis Johnson, Arkansas - A solid backup type who does everything well, but doesn't really stand out as a starting caliber player.

RB Knile Davis, Arkansas - Basically a complete afterthought for the time being. Could be worth a cheap gamble based on his former reputation.

RB Christine Michael, Texas A&M - Pretty good frame with some power and quickness. He's worth keeping an eye on and could move up the list.

WR Chad Bumphis, Mississippi State - A tough, underrated possession receiver.

WR Cody Hoffman, BYU - Tall and pretty fluid with enough speed and skill to potentially become an NFL starter if he declares.

WR Tavarres King, Georgia - Monster YPC numbers and decent athletic ability make him a day three sleeper to monitor.

WR Jalen Saunders, Oklahoma - Explosive slot receiver has definite NFL talent if he chooses to enter the draft.

WR Mike Davis, Texas - Slim, speedy deep threat with a knack for the big play.

WR Ace Sanders, South Carolina - Deadly punt returner with Andrew Hawkins potential as a receiver.

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson - Had a big year and could appear in future editions of the list. I haven't been blown away by the clips I've seen though.

WR Devonte Christopher, Utah - Kyle Williams type who could stick in the NFL.

TE Zach Ertz, Stanford - Would probably make the list if I thought he was going to declare. I'm not sure he will though.

TE Travis Kelce, Cincinnati - A really compelling sleeper who has a chance to rise up the charts.

TE Jordan Reed, Florida - A receiving specialist who will draw inevitable Hernandez comparisons.

TE Nick Kasa, Colorado - Sleeper talent buried on a horrible team.

TE Dion Sims, Michigan State - Probable high pick known as much for his blocking as for his receiving skills.

 
:goodposting: :goodposting: Nice work man. I haven't had a chance to look over prospect but I'll definitely be bumping this thread when I do.
 
good stuff EBF. thanks for sticking your neck out there. i somewhat agree with the lack of elite options... i'll be putting allen and hunter in that category but i agree they both have their weaknesses.

wheaton is an interesting call. other than highlights, i really only got to see him play against wisconsin this year and that was a snoozer of a game where he didn't really show much other than catching short passes and doing very little with them. to me, he seems a bit slight from the waist down, but i don't think that's a huge deal with receivers. i'll definitely be taking a better look at him.

i agree with the WR depth. lots of guys that could make an impact with various attributes to choose from. RB is very lackluster other than the top 4-5. i like the lacy call... while not elite, i think he could thrive in the right situation. with the recent showings of miraculous comebacks from knee injuries i'm holding out hope for lattimore and still love his potential.

i'm clearly way behind on looking at prospects at this point. after the playoffs i'll start diving in tho and i can't wait for the next few months of draft talk leading up to the combine and beyond... exciting times!

 
Lattimore wasn't a senior last year was he? Thought he was going to come back to SC for another year.

I think Bernard will end up being a first tier talent in the NFL, despite that he might not be rated as such in the draft.

 
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good stuff EBF. thanks for sticking your neck out there. i somewhat agree with the lack of elite options... i'll be putting allen and hunter in that category but i agree they both have their weaknesses.

wheaton is an interesting call. other than highlights, i really only got to see him play against wisconsin this year and that was a snoozer of a game where he didn't really show much other than catching short passes and doing very little with them. to me, he seems a bit slight from the waist down, but i don't think that's a huge deal with receivers. i'll definitely be taking a better look at him.

i agree with the WR depth. lots of guys that could make an impact with various attributes to choose from. RB is very lackluster other than the top 4-5. i like the lacy call... while not elite, i think he could thrive in the right situation. with the recent showings of miraculous comebacks from knee injuries i'm holding out hope for lattimore and still love his potential.

i'm clearly way behind on looking at prospects at this point. after the playoffs i'll start diving in tho and i can't wait for the next few months of draft talk leading up to the combine and beyond... exciting times!
Here are some Wheaton cutups:VS UCLA:

 
Very nice stuff all around.

I like the relatively high ranking of Marquess Wilson; I still like him a lot more than any WR not named Keenan Allen, but considering most draft experts are barely even mentioning him, I think a #8 ranking is very nice.

In regard to Markus Wheaton, I think he's assuredly going to be a decent NFL WR, but I'm not convinced he'll be much more than that. He reminds me of a Mario Manningham/Santonio Holmes type WR, should be good for 800+ yards once he gets his feet under him, but given his likely lack of TDs I'm not seeing much WR1 potential. Besides Wheaton, I'd probably rank DeAndre Hopkins higher, but as a Torrey Smith kind of WR his upside probably isn't that great.

I also like the low ranking of Terrance Williams, his stats are fantastic, but watching his highlights he really doesn't look very impressive. He'll show flashes of brilliance, but more often than not he just relies on his speed.

 
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Seems like with that many players listed, Rex Burkhead deserves mention. Stock is down because of knee injuriy this year but he is a do everything type of back who at the least would make a great 3rd down/goal-line back (ala MB3 early on) who can also return punts

 
You don't have Tyler bray listed. Nor is qb1 listed.

Perhaps they are both in your first tier...?

 
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good stuff EBF. thanks for sticking your neck out there. i somewhat agree with the lack of elite options... i'll be putting allen and hunter in that category but i agree they both have their weaknesses.

wheaton is an interesting call. other than highlights, i really only got to see him play against wisconsin this year and that was a snoozer of a game where he didn't really show much other than catching short passes and doing very little with them. to me, he seems a bit slight from the waist down, but i don't think that's a huge deal with receivers. i'll definitely be taking a better look at him.

i agree with the WR depth. lots of guys that could make an impact with various attributes to choose from. RB is very lackluster other than the top 4-5. i like the lacy call... while not elite, i think he could thrive in the right situation. with the recent showings of miraculous comebacks from knee injuries i'm holding out hope for lattimore and still love his potential.

i'm clearly way behind on looking at prospects at this point. after the playoffs i'll start diving in tho and i can't wait for the next few months of draft talk leading up to the combine and beyond... exciting times!
Here are some Wheaton cutups:VS UCLA:

Nice runs after the catch on some of the highlights. I don't like the way he catches the deep ball with this body however. He had 5 TDs in his first 36 games, but exploded for 13 this year. He's not a physical specimen and I know EBF gets a woody for size / speed combo guys. He's listed as 6'1", but Scouts Inc has him down at just 5-11. He may just be better than Allen and Hunter. You have to love his speed and YAC. I'm not sold on him, but teams could very well take him in the late 1st rd or early 2nd.
 
In regard to Markus Wheaton, I think he's assuredly going to be a decent NFL WR, but I'm not convinced he'll be much more than that. He reminds me of a Mario Manningham/Santonio Holmes type WR, should be good for 800+ yards once he gets his feet under him, but given his likely lack of TDs I'm not seeing much WR1 potential. \
I think Wheaton is probably more like a hybrid of Mike Wallace and Ochocinco. He might not have the sheer speed of Wallace or the great route running of Ocho, but he's cut from a similar cloth. He's quite a bit bigger than Manningham and Holmes, which is where those comparisons break down for me. He's not going to overpower people with his strength, but he's not a small WR either. I think the Arizona State clips that Xue posted show Wheaton at his best:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjtiPitIsgE
 
good stuff man

I have two things:

I would move Wheaton down ten spots. Not because I think hes a bad prospect, just based on ceiling.

Montee Ball is really low. Nothing elite, but a borderline top 5 pick(depending on destination) in this rookie draft

 
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Two guys missing from this list that I like are Randle and Graham. I think they'll start as 3rd down options and prove they can do much more.

The biggest name missing that I see is Jawan Jamison, though. Otherwise a great start.

 
Two guys missing from this list that I like are Randle and Graham. I think they'll start as 3rd down options and prove they can do much more.The biggest name missing that I see is Jawan Jamison, though. Otherwise a great start.
I forgot about Randle. He belongs in the conversation. He has never been a favorite of mine, but he could be a pretty high pick. Graham could be a factor as well, but I don't know if he'll declare for the draft.
 
You don't have Tyler bray listed. Nor is qb1 listed. Perhaps they are both in your first tier...?
Bray is like a poor man's Ryan Mallett. Tall frame and big arm with major question marks about his intelligence and instincts. His stats look nice on paper, but he was a loser who didn't beat a single good opponent this year despite having guys like Hunter and Patterson at WR. Physical specimens with poor mental talent almost always flop in the NFL, so I'm inclined to pass on Bray.
 
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Really good draft to test the evaluation skills and sitional analysis. Lots of guys who can be nice players, but doubtful this is high hit percentage draft for eithe the NFL and dynasty owners.

 
Two guys missing from this list that I like are Randle and Graham. I think they'll start as 3rd down options and prove they can do much more.The biggest name missing that I see is Jawan Jamison, though. Otherwise a great start.
I forgot about Randle. He belongs in the conversation. He has never been a favorite of mine, but he could be a pretty high pick. Graham could be a factor as well, but I don't know if he'll declare for the draft.
How do you feel about Jamison?
 
AJ McCarron announced last week he will return for his senior season. He's dating Miss Alabama. Could be worse.

 
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Maquess Wilson scares the crap out of me. He's definitely a specimen but his character is a massive red flag. Not only did he quit on his team but he routinely pouted on the field and gave up on plays during games where he wasn't getting the looks he wanted. With how deep the receiver class is I'm staying far away from Wilson in the first round.

I think Jonathan Franklin is being undervalued just about everywhere I look. Really impressed with his running style and vision. But maybe that's just me.

I'm with you on your thoughts about McCarron. It's kind of bizarre how he's been overlooked in a lot of draft circles this year. As far as QB goes I'm trying to get a better read on Ryan Nassib. I like what I've seen so far, though.

ETA: Didn't realize McCarron had decided to go back to school. That explains a lot.

 
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Two guys missing from this list that I like are Randle and Graham. I think they'll start as 3rd down options and prove they can do much more.The biggest name missing that I see is Jawan Jamison, though. Otherwise a great start.
I forgot about Randle. He belongs in the conversation. He has never been a favorite of mine, but he could be a pretty high pick. Graham could be a factor as well, but I don't know if he'll declare for the draft.
How do you feel about Jamison?
I watched the game last night and didn't come away very impressed. I've seen clips from earlier in the season too. I don't think he's really that great.
 
Interesting tidbit on Michael Dyer. His family is saying he's not entering the draft. But the rumor is he could be headed back to Auburn. He transferred to Arky State to play for Gus Malzahn, now Malzahn is head coach at Auburn. Since he sat out this year it's possible the NCAA would allow him to play immediately, but he's burned a lot of bridges on the plains.

 
Really good draft to test the evaluation skills and sitional analysis. Lots of guys who can be nice players, but doubtful this is high hit percentage draft for eithe the NFL and dynasty owners.
Situation and role will play a bigger factor in this draft than any one I can think of off the top of my head. I'm kinda glad this is the year I'm sitting on two later first rounders, going to have a lot more flexibility than usual imho.
 
Interesting tidbit on Michael Dyer. His family is saying he's not entering the draft. But the rumor is he could be headed back to Auburn. He transferred to Arky State to play for Gus Malzahn, now Malzahn is head coach at Auburn. Since he sat out this year it's possible the NCAA would allow him to play immediately, but he's burned a lot of bridges on the plains.
He put himself in a bad spot with his off-field issues. Had he stayed at Auburn and avoided trouble, he would've been the first RB picked in this draft hands down. But with all the red flags now it's hard to see a team spending a high pick on him unless he goes back to college and re-proves himself. So that might be the best option for him. On the other hand, if he comes out now he'll still get picked and make a team. The NFL minimum is a lot more than what Auburn would pay (I think) and he could play his way into a big payday on his second contract. I'd like to see him in the draft because I've already got him in a lot of leagues, but if he goes back to school it will be a big boost for the 2014 draft.
 
Speaking of Smith, Austin, Bailey and Nassib, the Pinstripe Bowl is about to be played. 100% chance of snow. Could be a very entertaining game.

 
Ball is better than #19, but it's understandable that you don't like him since there is nothing elite about his game. You always overlook just solid tough football players. Which Ball is.

Nice effort tho..

 
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You don't have Tyler bray listed. Nor is qb1 listed. Perhaps they are both in your first tier...?
Bray is like a poor man's Ryan Mallett. Tall frame and big arm with major question marks about his intelligence and instincts. His stats look nice on paper, but he was a loser who didn't beat a single good opponent this year despite having guys like Hunter and Patterson at WR. Physical specimens with poor mental talent almost always flop in the NFL, so I'm inclined to pass on Bray.
And Glennon, who is qb1 or Qb2 on many/most boards?
 
You don't have Tyler bray listed. Nor is qb1 listed. Perhaps they are both in your first tier...?
Bray is like a poor man's Ryan Mallett. Tall frame and big arm with major question marks about his intelligence and instincts. His stats look nice on paper, but he was a loser who didn't beat a single good opponent this year despite having guys like Hunter and Patterson at WR. Physical specimens with poor mental talent almost always flop in the NFL, so I'm inclined to pass on Bray.
And Glennon, who is qb1 or Qb2 on many/most boards?
I'm not as familiar with Glennon, but I've heard the same negatives about him. Looks like Tarzan. Plays like Jane. The 6.74 and 7.14 YPA averages over the last two seasons don't paint a pretty picture. And I doubt he'll be QB1. Smith, Wilson, Nassib, and Barkley are ahead of him in pretty much every mock I've seen.
 
You don't have Tyler bray listed. Nor is qb1 listed.

Perhaps they are both in your first tier...?
Bray is like a poor man's Ryan Mallett. Tall frame and big arm with major question marks about his intelligence and instincts. His stats look nice on paper, but he was a loser who didn't beat a single good opponent this year despite having guys like Hunter and Patterson at WR. Physical specimens with poor mental talent almost always flop in the NFL, so I'm inclined to pass on Bray.
And Glennon, who is qb1 or Qb2 on many/most boards?
I'm not as familiar with Glennon, but I've heard the same negatives about him. Looks like Tarzan. Plays like Jane. The 6.74 and 7.14 YPA averages over the last two seasons don't paint a pretty picture.

And I doubt he'll be QB1. Smith, Wilson, Nassib, and Barkley are ahead of him in pretty much every mock I've seen.
I'm not sure what mocks your looking at but Glennon is going high in all the ones I'm seeing. Here is one. where he is 6th overall.Bray is almost sure to go in the top 3 rounds and could easily vault into the 1st.

Not having them listed at all is a massive oversight IMO.

 
All these rankings are going to bounce all over the next 4 months. It is going to depend on landing spots. I wasn't active a lot on the boards last year, but who had Doug Martin as an average pick 1.02 or 1.03 before the draft? I don't think it was many

 
All these rankings are going to bounce all over the next 4 months. It is going to depend on landing spots. I wasn't active a lot on the boards last year, but who had Doug Martin as an average pick 1.02 or 1.03 before the draft? I don't think it was many
I had him at #5 about a year ago. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=630959&st=0&p=14000019&fromsearch=1entry14000019I agree that the rankings will shift a bit, but I think it's a lot more likely that we'll see a WR sneak into the first than a RB.
 
Here is one. where he is 6th overall.

Bray is almost sure to go in the top 3 rounds and could easily vault into the 1st.

Not having them listed at all is a massive oversight IMO.
Definitely didn't realize that Glennon was so high in some mocks. Doesn't really change the equation though. I'm not trying to predict the NFL draft order. I'm trying to find the good FF players. I don't see much about Bray or Glennon that makes them worth consideration in the top 20 of a rookie draft. They are just the latest in the long line of QBs with A grade physical tools and D grade football talent. See: Gabbert, Locker, Russell, etc. These guys aren't even good players in college.

 
All these rankings are going to bounce all over the next 4 months. It is going to depend on landing spots. I wasn't active a lot on the boards last year, but who had Doug Martin as an average pick 1.02 or 1.03 before the draft? I don't think it was many
I had him at #5 about a year ago. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=630959&st=0&p=14000019&fromsearch=1entry14000019I agree that the rankings will shift a bit, but I think it's a lot more likely that we'll see a WR sneak into the first than a RB.
Been reading through your rankings for the last 3 or 4 years. Nice work.
 
Here is one. where he is 6th overall.

Bray is almost sure to go in the top 3 rounds and could easily vault into the 1st.

Not having them listed at all is a massive oversight IMO.
Definitely didn't realize that Glennon was so high in some mocks. Doesn't really change the equation though. I'm not trying to predict the NFL draft order. I'm trying to find the good FF players. I don't see much about Bray or Glennon that makes them worth consideration in the top 20 of a rookie draft. They are just the latest in the long line of QBs with A grade physical tools and D grade football talent. See: Gabbert, Locker, Russell, etc. These guys aren't even good players in college.
Can you unpack the bolded for us? If I understand you correctly, you are saying Glennon has "A grade physical tools" but has "D grade football talent". Right? Can you elaborate on what you mean by that?Glennon started two seasons in college and threw 30+ TDs in both of them. This despite playing with below average surrounding talent. He is frequently compared to Matt Ryan; this is partly because he and Ryan both played for Tom O'Brien, but it is also a fair comparison.

 
Here is one. where he is 6th overall.

Bray is almost sure to go in the top 3 rounds and could easily vault into the 1st.

Not having them listed at all is a massive oversight IMO.
Definitely didn't realize that Glennon was so high in some mocks. Doesn't really change the equation though. I'm not trying to predict the NFL draft order. I'm trying to find the good FF players. I don't see much about Bray or Glennon that makes them worth consideration in the top 20 of a rookie draft. They are just the latest in the long line of QBs with A grade physical tools and D grade football talent. See: Gabbert, Locker, Russell, etc. These guys aren't even good players in college.
Can you unpack the bolded for us? If I understand you correctly, you are saying Glennon has "A grade physical tools" but has "D grade football talent". Right? Can you elaborate on what you mean by that?Glennon started two seasons in college and threw 30+ TDs in both of them. This despite playing with below average surrounding talent. He is frequently compared to Matt Ryan; this is partly because he and Ryan both played for Tom O'Brien, but it is also a fair comparison.
I like high YPA QBs and Glennon is the opposite of that. I've not seen him play much, so it's probably not fair for me to say that he has grade D football talent, but based on the stats and what I've heard from other people he's just a tall guy with an arm. 6.7 YPA as a junior. 7.1 YPA as a senior. There's nothing there that says playmaker. His high yardage and TD totals are solely the result of volume, as he finished in the top 5 among all 120+ FBS starters in pass attempts this season. Compare his efficiency to...

Russell Wilson 2011 - 10.27 YPA

Andrew Luck 2011 - 8.70 YPA

Robert Griffin 2011 - 10.68

That's the kind of production that I expect from an elite QB against amateur defenses. These guys are supposed to dominate irrespective of the supporting cast. And that's what guys like Barkley, Smith, Fales, and Bridgewater did this past season. Glennon was just an accumulator.

Having said that, YPA is not everything. There are guys like Brees and Ryan doing well in the NFL who didn't light it up in college. But in general I'm not going to bet on an average college player becoming an above average pro. That's how you get Ponder, Boller, and Gabbert. And FWIW, a big part of Ryan's recent ascension is the fact that he plays with two Pro Bowl WRs and a HoF TE. If I knew that Glennon would become a top 5 pick and wind up with the same supporting cast then I would move him up.

 
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I think Ball is WAY too low on this list. I would argue he's better than Stepfan and hands down better than Ellington.

 
I think Ball is WAY too low on this list. I would argue he's better than Stepfan and hands down better than Ellington.
I would agree, especially Ellington. Sometimes runners with a great OL aren't recognized for what they do well. I think Ball is a very creative runner. Very nifty between the tackles, great vision, gets every yard he can. Reminds me of Alfred Morris this season a bit. He doesn't have any superlative qualities, but he's a very effective runner who won't break huge plays too often, and I think that will translate to the NFL.
 
Russell Wilson 2010 - 6.76 YPA, <60% completion at NC State. Dropped passes were a common occurance at NC State. Glennon's upside depends on how his decision making is and how quick his release is. Since the coaching has shown a prior history of preparing QBs for NFL, Glennon is worth having on the radar IMO.

 
Russell Wilson 2010 - 6.76 YPA, <60% completion at NC State. Dropped passes were a common occurance at NC State. Glennon's upside depends on how his decision making is and how quick his release is. Since the coaching has shown a prior history of preparing QBs for NFL, Glennon is worth having on the radar IMO.
:goodposting:Given Wilson's unusual path, it provides a couple of interesting counterpoints to EBF's reliance on YPA and assertion that great QBs should dominate regardless of supporting cast.Wilson had a 10.27 YPA at Wisconsin in 2011 and a 6.76 YPA at N.C. State in 2010. Why the difference? Some possible reasons:1. At State, he had no running game, and thus had to pass more frequently and pass out of undesirable down and distance situations more frequently. He also frequently had to use short passes in an attempt to offset the unproductive running game. At Wisconsin, he had a great running game, which allowed him to pass out of more favorable and less predictable down and distance situations and also against defenses keying on the run rather than the pass. It also allowed him to focus downfield more.2. At State, he had an average offensive line at best, which led to him throwing under pressure more often than at Wisconsin, where he had one of the best offensive lines in the country.3. Obviously, he was in two different offenses. Playcalling can obviously affect QB statistics.This example certainly seems to refute the idea that supporting cast does not matter.It is also interesting because Wilson is having tremendous success in the NFL despite having put up the stats he did at State in his redshirt junior season in 2010. Glennon put up better numbers in both 2011 and 2012, despite all of the issues mentioned above for Wilson and despite having arguably worse receiving options than Wilson did at State.Don't get me wrong on this. I thought Wilson was a special QB, and I have never felt the same way about Glennon, and I watched all of both of their college games. I was surprised when I started hearing Glennon discussed as a first round QB. That said, it's true that he is 6'6", has a strong arm that can make all the throws, has never been hurt, comes from a football family, is smart (already earned his bachelor's and master's degrees at State), and has zero issues off the field. That's not a bad base to build on.I certainly think he is a better prospect than Matt Barkley, to name one guy EBF mentioned.
 
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First Tier

EBF

AGREED 100%!!!! As a dynasty guy I seek EBF's perceptions on college guys like a crack head looking for a fix. Not an expert by any means but came away very impressed with Marquis Goodwin after watching the game this morning. Has plenty of juice and an extra gear when the ball is in the air. Couldn't find the ball in the 1st quarter on the studder go but connected on same play in the 4th to win the game. EBF what are your thoughts on him? I think he is very interesting as a deep play guy ala Mike Wallace. In the right offense could be a monster in a couple years. I think things that held him back in college was the UT offense and all his time dedicated to track. A guy I am going to be watching because he is going to blow up at the combine imo.

 

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